The Summary

 

    The the closest thing the Twins would come to October baseball is five hours and a 38-year-old centerfielder's arm away.  They would come within one former catcher's clutches away from mass producing ticket strips.  Twins fans were six days away from the smell of stale air that lingers when one emerges from the Dome in a time of mid-autumn baseball, that is, if it were not for one pitch and one 37-year-old swing.  A swing that had haunted Twins fans since the mid-1990s.  The game had all of the makings for an ESPN Instant Classic - except for those residing in the land bordered between Wisconsin, Iowa, the Dakotas and Canada.

    

    Two inexperienced arms dueled tirelessly in the chill of the Chicago night.  The starting pitchers, like soldiers charging into No-Man's Land, tossed pitch after pitch like wielded bayonets at their opponents just sixty-feet and six-inches away.  The White Sox's John Danks twirled curves and sliders while Minnesota's Nick Blackburn countered with cutters and running-fastball. Thousands of fans swirling in black, engulfing the field, willed strike three out of Danks every time he sped ahead by two strikes on a Twins batter - a request that he was happily to oblige on Justin Morneau twice and Joe Mauer once.  Blackburn showed great movement as he darted, dipped, dived, dodged his way around the strike zone - almost always seeming to work ahead of a lineup that had out-slaughtered the Twins lineup 234 to 111 in home runs.  It was, however, the 235th would decide  final playoff berth and execute the Twins like swift justice.   

 

    

    According to Hittrackeronline.com, it was the definition of a proverbial moonshot.  Thome's home run traveled upwards of 458 feet into centerfield - leading to no need for video assistance.  It was only fitting that a team that lived by the home run, won by the home run.  During one of managing-great Earl Weaver's frequent post-game radio shows, Weaver once made an extensively insightful tirade as the response to an on-air question in which a listener called in to inquire as to why the Baltimore Orioles were not interested in acquiring more speed.  In a particularly foul disposition, Weaver sounded off: "Team Speed?! For christsakes, you get g*ddamn little fleas on the f*cking bases getting picked off, trying to steal, getting thrown out, taking runs away from you...Get them big c*cksuckers that can hit the ball out of the ballpark and you make no mistakes."  The Twins had a roster of "g*ddamn little fleas" as the White Sox contained "them big c*cksuckers that can hit the ball out of the ballpark." 

 

    The game transpired on a stage that should be viewed as more than one playoff game in which two successful teams clashed - it goes so much deeper.  It was a living case study for baseball researchers that will assist in compiling evidence to support power over speed when nine innings are at stake.  US Cellular turned into a battleground for these two different baseball theories:  One ideology residing in the third-largest market in the United States that would acquire expensive, aging talent that can hit the ball a ton but couldn't run and the other had cheap labor that could gain an extra base and cover substantial ground for the basis of their success.  In game 163, the record will indicate that power succeeded when Thome's blast cleared the deepest part of centerfield to create the lone run of the game - circling the bases like Judd Nelson a la the Breakfast Club exiting his Saturday of detention.       

    

 

      Some will certainly will state that this season was miraculous insomuch as the Twins were not expect to compete.  The team was expected to sink to the bottom of the division, exchanging places with Kansas CIty and develop for the future.  We, as Twins fans, should consider ourselves lucky that we were one of seven teams that would have the possibility to face an elimination game with such magnitude.  (Ask any Mariners fan if they would enjoy the same thrill.)  Still, it feels like there are much more unanswered questions:

 

• Was the fate of the Twins sealed by a simple coin-flip in mid-September in which Mark Fein on TBS revealed was chosen by Chicago's Assistant General Manager's 5-year-old son?  Had MLB decided to use the head-to-head records in which the Twins were 10-8 against the White Sox for home field advantage, would we be discussing the Twins chances in St Petersburg?   
• How didn't the Twins steal on victory away from a Royal team in the final weekend of the season - a team that was 11-4 against the Twins and finished with a .463 winning percentage?
• Were the Twins finished when both trade deadlines produced only Eddie Guardado as fruit?  Would the addition of Chad Bradford or Latroy Hawkins been the difference make in milking an extra win or two to ensure Tuesday night's game would never happen?
• If the Republicans had chosen a different venue for their convention and not sent the Twins on a daunting 14-game road trip from Aug 21 to Sept 4th in which the Twins went 5-9 would the results be any different?
• Did Ron Gardenhire use Matt Guerrier as a set-up man and Carlos Gomez as a leadoff man one too many times?

 

All these are good questions that deserve educated answers but for me I am not able to digest all this at the moment -- the answers will come soon enough, just not tonight. 

       

Notebook Dump (09.25.08)

 

Game: Twinks 7, White Sux 6

Box Score

Post-Game Wrap

Record: 87-72, 1/2 game lead on White Sux - won three

Games Remaining: 3 - Kansas City Royals (possible one game playoff vs. White Sux)

 

 

The Quote: "It sucks.  Hopefully we come home and kick their asses on Tuesday." A.J. Pierzynski, White Sux catcher.

 

The Inning:  It had been like we were in 2007.  One year ago, Alexi Casilla was thrusted into a Major League position thanks to the trade of veteran Luis Castillo to the Mets, almost a grand gesture to Casilla to say that he was the owner of second base in Minneapolis.  In turn, Casilla contributed less than zero, batting .219/.258/.260 in 159 plate appearances after Castillo vacated the team.  When his less than inspirational spring training requisted addition seasoning in the minors, Casilla responded by hitting .219/.350/.250.  Still, injuries to Adam Everett required his presences at the big club when Brendan Harris and Nick Punto were shuffled around the infield.  Reluctantly, the front office recalled Casilla. 

    Working against conventional wisdom, Casilla out-performed expectation by hitting .340/.417/.520 but cooled to a red-hot .304/.330/.412 in 114 plate appearances the next month.  A thumb injury sidelined him in July and when his returned to contribute a .622 OPS in August, fans wondered if the injury was nagging.  In September, Casilla meandered in the number two spot.  His .227/.326/.267 had been one of his weakest 30 days of the year so if a game were on the line, fans would be less than thrilled to see Casilla in the box, especially on the left-handed side.  The versatile Casilla had spend 280 occasions in the right-handed batters' box and 133 in the left side.  Clearly, Casilla had an advantage from his right as he would bat .293/.346/.406 on the season, a very respectable line for a second baseman. Unspoken was his plate appearances from his port where his batted .268/.311/.341.     

    Ron Gardenhire had already employed Harris in Brian Buscher's stead.  Harris, after doubling in the eighth inning off the left-handed Matt Thorton and scoring on Carlos Gomez's soft line drive to Griffey. Denard Span tripled with Gomez on second to knot the game at six with one out left.  Casilla struck out and Joe Mauer bounced out to Paul Konerko at first.  A failed opportunity to score in the ninth opened the door for extra innings.  Substitutions were left to the switch-hitting Matt Tolbert, Randy Ruiz and Jason Pridie.  Since giving up the tying runs in the eighth, Bobby Jenks had been lights out - retiring Justin Morneau, Cuddyer and Delmon Young in order.  So when Harris returned to the plate in the 10th to open the inning and grounded out, it was easy to suggest that the Twins would go down in order.

    Nick Punto, however, worked a four-pitch walk.  With one out, Carlos Gomez grounded out into a fielder's choice at second and was able to avoid the doubleplay.  With leadoff hitter Denard Span hitting next, Jenks and the Sox provided him with a breaking ball opening that bounced in the dirt and allowed Nick Punto and the Twins to achieve third base.  Recognizing the opportunity to pitch around a batter that was 3-for-4 for a hitting that was 1-for-4 wiggly room seemed logical but at the same time concerning as Jenks had already thrown eight innings in September and allowed six earned runs while allowing an opponent batting line of .300/.323/533.  On top of that was the fact that Jenks had not gone more than two innings since 2005.  It was obvious he was not equipped to handled the same situation with the playoffs on the line.  Jenks started Casilla with a 91-mph fastball that was middle-in.  The subsequent pitch was a same-speed slider that was slightly lower: but Casilla's punch went over middle infield to drive in the winning run.

 

 

The Friday Flotsam

 

(*)The Twins are not the only ones with bullpen woes down the back-stretch of the season.  Phil Rogers reports that Ozzie Guillen is having just as much difficulty as Ron Gardenhire has with his bullpen.  Rogers highlights the White Sox the Sept. 15 loss to the Yankees in which Mark Buerhle went six innings, giving up two runs.  When pressed with the decision to have the left-hander Buerhle face Xavier Nady -- who had already homered off of him in the game -- Guillen decided to go to Ehren Wasserman.  Wasserman walked Nady and then got an out on a sacrifice bunt.  Guillen then swapped Wasserman for Horacio Ramirez.  Ho-Ram immediately provided Wilson Betemit with a pitch that he drove for a ground-rule double, scoring Nady from second and putting the Yankees out front 3-2 on their way to a 4-2 victory.  "I need to be a genius again," Guillen said. "I lost my title the last two weeks. I've never gone to the mound so much. If I got paid by how many times I go to the mound, I wouldn't need my salary. Every two hitters I go out."  Though the Sox have had the same poor showing from their relievers as the Twins have had, the White Sox hold the advantage in that they have been 4-4 since August while the Twins bullpen has had an atrocious record of 4-14.

(*)Rogers is also suggesting that White Sox second baseman Alexei Ramirez is a front-runner for American League Rookie of the Year.  Certainly, the 26 year old beanpole Cuban has emerged as a strong option as he has hit .296/.318/.477 in 442 at-bats with 18 home runs but Tampa's Evan Longoria's three home run performance against the Twins on Thursday night may have solidified his election as despite spending significant time on the DL, Longoria has still hit .281/.353/.544 with 25 home runs in 406 at-bats.  The difference between the two being that as Longoria has spend the majority of his at-bats batting either clean-up or in the 5th spot, Rameriz has been seeing cushier pitching batting anywhere from 7th through 9th in the Sox order.  In my opinion - which is hardly worth the bandwidth it is printed on - I believe that the electoral process for ROY is determined by the clunkier statistics like RBI, average and runs scored (not to mention home runs).  Credence is given to some defense.  For instance Longoria is credited as being the complete package becuase he plays a very solid third base -- ranking 4th among starters in the Fielding Bible resulting in nearly +10 runs saved.  Rogers labeled Ramirez as "an ultrasolid fielder" which is simply untrue, in fact nothing could be further from the truth.  According the Fielding Bible, in Ramirez's 920 innings logged at second base, the Cuban Missile has cost his team approximately -9 runs, placing him at 27th among major league second baseman.  When you consider the all-around play of the two rookies it is clear that Longoria, at the young age of 22, is the better rookie.  Because I believe the award is a charade, let's look at another outside candidate - unlike the race for the Presidency, the Rookie of the Year should not be a two-man race.  Twins right fielder Denard Span, in his 100 fewer at-bats, has been every bit as an ignitor to his team as Longoria and Ramirez have.  When you gauge by the Win Probability Added, Span has usurped both Ramirez and Longoria in providing the production to lead to team wins.  Notably, Ramirez's offense has actually adversely effect his team at -0.10.  Defensively you can say the same thing.  His +14 run defensive performance is the second best as a right fielder in the American League (behind the Indian's Franklin Guetierrez at +28) and probably would have led all of baseball had he been up the entire season.  Though Longoria will run away with the award simply because the Rays are full of feelgoodery this year and 25+ home runs this season, Denard Span should get some serious consideration.

(*)Speaking of rookies, it is that time of year when the leaves start changing colors, there is a hint of autumn in the air and veteran baseball players outfit their youngsters in women's clothing:

• Out in Centerfield, a BoSox blog, has numerous pictures of Red Sox's rookies dressed to the nines leaving Fenway Park. 
• Not to be outdone, the Padres raided a local Hooters franchise to have their rooks prance around Petco Park in the ubiquitous orange shorts and white tops. 
• Minus Ian Kennedy's Dorothy costume, the Yankees shied away from the crossdressing with their rendition of 'Wizard of Oz' (oh, and, uh, yeah: you're not in the playoffs). 
• The Rays had an eclectic costume parade.  Evan Longoria was a cop while Matt Garza was a...taco?  But wait...there is a video.
• The White Sox had pitcher Lance Broadway dress up as a grotesque version of a Baywatch lifeguard, courtesy of the blog Scott Proctor's Arm. 

(*)CBS Sportsline's Scott Miller penned an article on Jason Bartlett being the linchpin for the Tampa Bay Rays in their first ever playoff push.  Admittedly, Bartlett is a huge upgrade over Brendan Harris who manned the position for the Rays in 2007, to say that he has been an elite shortstop is overdoing it as well.  "I've said all year that I think Jason Bartlett is one of the MVPs of the team," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We have won not because we've out-hit everyone, but because of our defense. And he's been the glue to holding it together." Though I would take a Bartlett over a Harris any day, defensively his prowess has been over-hyped.  Among starters (those that have accumulated 1,000 innings), Bartlett's revised zone rating is second-to-last (.806) at shortstop and by his Fielding Bible rating is plus/minus 0 -- which means he hasn't saved any runs nor has his play relinquished any runs.  Nick Punto, meanwhile, in his 453 innings at short has saved the Twins +4 runs.  Despite what other's believe, Bartlett's bat is average as a shortstop.  Literally.  The average American League shortstop is hitting .265/.317/.371 while Bartlett's season line is .280/.317/.350.  His wpa on the season has be -2.29 - an expense to the Rays.  Bartlett received attention after his torrid August.  The Rays finished the month winning 21 of 28 games thanks to the production of the former Twins' shortstop who hit .389/.413/.583 with 10 extra base hits in 76 plate appearances.  This helped Tampa stay ahead of Boston when the calender turned over to September.  Since the new month began, the Rays have been 6-10 and Bartlett has regressed to being just an average shortstop again batting .288/.317/.356 with 4 extra base hits in 63 plate appearances.

 

Notebook Dump (09.18.08)

 

Game: Twinks 4, Indians 6

Box Score

Post Game Wrap

Record: 82-69, 2nd place, 2.5 games behind CWS 

The Quote: "The amateur psychologists needn't fret, though. With another heartbreaking loss Tuesday night, another young, inexperienced team dug itself a deeper hole in its division race. The Minnesota Twins are the new not-it team of 2008." - Jonah Keri, ESPN.com/Baseball Prospectus

 

 

The Inning:  After given a clean slate following a two-run outburst in the top of seventh while chasing Cliff Lee from the game, the Twins held their bated breath the responsibility fell to the bullpen.  This was a tall order.  The previous night's extra innings coupled with Francisco Liriano's short outing had taxed an already exhausted relief corp.  Plus coming into the game opponents were hitting .303/.372/.500 off the relief staff in the month of September. 

    The night before the relievers attempted to bail out Liriano after his 2 2/3 innings of work that resulted in eight runs.  it nearly worked as Boof Bonser, Matt Guerrier and Craig Breslow combined to throw 4 1/3 shutout innings.  The offense scrapped seven runs off of rookie starter Zach Jackson then took the lead from Rafael Betancourt in the eighth when Justin Morneau doubled home Denard Span and Delmon Young hit a sacrifice fly to score Joe Mauer.  With one half-inning before the standard deployment of Joe Nathan in the ninth Ron Gardenhire had turned to Eddie Guardado as the last layer of defense.  After getting Asdrubel Cabrera to flyout to center, Guardado quickly worked ahead of Grady Sizemore.  In this instance, the odds were slightly tipped in Guardado's favor, who had limited lefties to a .218/.279/.372 batting line, and he attacked the strike zone with two quick strikes.  With an 0-2 count Guardado tried to get Sizemore to chase back-to-back sliders out of the zone.  Sizemore, an odd combination of both patience and whiffery, did not take the bait.  Knotted at 2-and-2, Sizemore fought off two offspeed pitches before getting a 78 mph change that was elevated.  Sizemore redirected the pitch down the right field line that ricocheted off the foul pole to tie the game at nine. 

    "I'll take the blame for this," said Guardado after the game. "But you just have to keep your chin up. Like I tell the youngsters, as long as you keep playing this game, the things are going to happen. You just don't want them to happen now because you are in the middle of the pennant race and this is real tight."

    Twenty-four hours later the Twins were left to pick through the scrap heap of a bullpen to hold the surging Indians.  Gardenhire selected Jose Mijares to face Grady Sizemore and the top of the Indian order in the seventh.  Mijares had impressed the manager in his three scoreless outings since his September call up, his 92 mph fastball was complemented nicely with an 82 mph slider, certain to keep left-handed batters off-balanced.  In his rehabilitation in the minor leagues Mijares worked 36 2/3 innings in Rookie, high-A and AA ball posting a 41/11 K/BB ratio.  Sizemore stole an infield hit off of a 92 mph fastball on a 1-1 count.  Mijares, all 230 pounds of him, hopped of the mound to field a Jamey Carroll bunt and threw to second to erase Sizemore.  With Shin-Soo Choo batting, Mijares grounded a slider and Mauer threw wildly efforts to catch Carroll only to allow him to advance to third, the Twins were facing a familar situation in having a runner in scoring position with less than two outs.  Recollecting himself, Mijares iced Choo with a 94 mph fastball that cut the plate in half.  With one out to go and the right-handed batting Jhonny Paralta approaching the plate, Gardenhire went to Matt Guerrier. 

    As noted, Guerrier contributed to the scoreless 4 1/3 innings on Tuesday which was particular reaffirming because as of late he had been a liability.  Before August 1st Guerrier had tossed 53 2/3 innings while surrendering just six home runs and kept hitters at a low .245/.317/.384 batting line.  In 14 2/3 innings since August 1st, Guerrier had given up four home runs and opponents batted .368/.449/.588.  To say that he had a dead arm would be an understatement.  Without any other options, Gardenhire continues to run him out to the mound in high leverage situations.  Just like the one awaiting him at the plate.

    All indications suggested that Peralta would be a good match for Guerrier.  In the month of September, Peralta had been 13-for-57 with just three extra base hits.  Peralta hit his fourth extra base hit in September in the fourth inning off of Scott Baker in the form of his 22nd home run of the season.  Unable to get ahead of Peralta, Guerrier flipped a 2-2 curve that hung for the Indians' shortstop.  Peralta rocketed a line drive for a double that scored Carroll and regained the lead for the Indians.  With the lead vanquished (and Mijares' 0.00 era a thing of the past), Guerrier went to work on a left-handed batting Victor Martinez.  Like his battle with Peralta, Guerrier failed to start with a first pitch strike but followed with a high fastball to even the count.  With the count 1-1, Guerrier again tried to flip another curve.  Martinez ripped it to right for a double, trading places with Peralta at second giving the Indians their sixth and final run of the game. 

Tough Stretch. 

    While the overall records of the Indians (72-77) and Rays (88-59) could not be more different at first blush, they actual share a common trait which is a winning record since August 1st, playing .595 and .625 ball, respectively.  Though Tampa's success has be more sustained as they posted a .589 winning percentage leading up to the month of August as the Erie Warriors nestled into a .439 winning percentage but both have been fundamentally sound as the calender slips into fall.  Since trimming some fat - notably 250 pounds of C.C. Sabathia - the Indians have gone 35 and 26, the fourth best record in the American League behind surging teams like the Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.  The bottomline is that nobody, especially a team that has played muddling baseball since August 1st (21-19) and are attempting to overcome a 1.5 game deficit in the standings, wants to play either team right now.      

    Unfortunately for the Minnesota Twins, they have to play both...on the road.  So not only are the Twins facing two teams in back-to-back series that are 50-32 since August 1st but they are playing them in a location where they are 92-57 combined on the season.  To make matters worse the Indians and the Rays are trotting out starting pitching that are a 70-30.  These daunting numbers alone are enough to make the most strong-headed optimist wonder where the other half of his or her water went.  The scheduled starting pitching includes Cy Young front-runner Cliff Lee, who since his July 6th loss to the Twins at the Metrodome has gone 11-0 in 12 starts, throwing 91.2 innings with a 58/9 k/bb ratio adding a 2.27 era for good measure.  Once the Twins leave Cleveland they will be greeted by the Rays James Shields who since the All-Star break has gone 7-3 in his 13 starts, amassing 91.1 innings and dispatching 17% of his opponents via strikeout while walking just 4%.  After a brief reprise in dominate control artists the Twins face the erratic (10% bb%) yet hard-throwing (93.8 mph fastball) Edwin Jackson the Twins will be forced to solve many analysts preseason Cy Young candidate in Scott Kazmir who in his 8 starts since August 1st has gone 3-1 with a 3.32 era, opponents hitting just .196 off of him and nearly a quarter of them (24% k%) have heard the umpire bellow "strike three!" in 43.1 innings of work.  To cap off the four game series the Rays present Andy Sonnanstine who has also gone 3-1 in his 8 starts since August striking out 32 and walked only 7.   

    Higher up on the AL Central standings the Chicago White Sox are also accumulating the frequent flier miles.  How does the strength of their schedule compare to the Twins?  The New York Yankees have played .500 baseball since August 1st (20-20), which is a better result than the Pythagorean would argue since they have been outscored by -11.  If they are able to escape from New York with a split or better, the White Sox will be rewarded with a three game series in Kansas City against a team that has been tied for the forth worst record in baseball since August 1st (.385 winning percentage).  The probable pitchers that are expected to face the White Sox lineup have a combined record of 47-39 - but would be .500 if you were to subtract Mike Mussina's 17-9 record.  Following the series opening loss, the Yankees will use Andy Petitte who has been showing his age since August.  In his last 8 starts Petitte has gone 1-5 with a 5.55 era in 48.2 innings of work and opponents have hit .318/.365/.434.  Sandwiched between Petitte and Mussina, the Yankees have recalled phenom cum suspect Philip Hughes who experienced some growing pains in his minor league rehab stint, going 1-0 with a 5.90 era in six starts making it through the sixth inning just once.  In back to back starts against the LeHigh Valley Iron Pigs Hughes failed to clear the 4th inning and surrendered 13 earned runs in those 7 innings.  Though his final two starts showed signs of promise (12 innings, 15 strike outs, 10 hits, 3 earned runs) he will still be trying to find his "feel" on the mound against a playoff hungry team.  Once the team shifts to Middle America, the White Sox take on starting pitching that is 17-23.  This series commences with Brian Bannister on the mound.  Since August 1st Banny has made 8 starts going 1-6 in that span.  In those 43.1 innings, Bannister has had a 27/15 k/bb ratio as opponents have slugged 11 home runs and hit .305/.360/.593.   

    Yes, the White Sox-Twins series in the Metrodome next week should get top billing however it should be noted that these next 7 games are pivotal to the division race.  How the Twins play against the Indians and Rays could mean the difference between leapfrogging the White Sox in the standings entering the final series against the Kansas City Royals or watching the White Sox clinch on our turf.