2008: 3rd Quarter Review

With 122 games finished in the 2008 season, the Twins are in the middle of a dog-fight for the American League Central with the last quarter of the season remaining. If anything, the play of the Twins at the end of the first quarter of the season (21-20) proved that the competition within the division was not shared between Detroit and Cleveland as most experts expected. Certainly the Tiger's dreadful 16-25 was an early canary in the coal mine that the Tigers were not destined for the 2008 postseason. Meanwhile the Twins, Indians, White Sox and even the Royals were separated by just one game at the conclusion of the opening quarter of the season. During the second quarter of the season (24-17) the Twins feasted on National League pitching and went 14-3 during a stretch of baseball between June 11th and June 29th. As the second quarter played out, the standings in the American League Central mprphed over the course of these 41 games: Cleveland, unable to gain momentum at the plate coupled with injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, dropped from first to the bottom of the division going 15-26, slightly worse than the Tigers first quarter record. Conversely Detroit rebounded from the dehabilitation first quarter going 26-15, clawing their way out of the cellar and over the Indians and Royals, performing the way that most analysts anticipated when they acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. The Royals declined significantly in second quarter capped off by a 12-game losing streak and finished 17-24 in that stretch of games. The White Sox powered their way to first by going 26-15 while hitting 62 home runs in those 41 games (1.52 home runs per game).

In the third quarter, the Twins managed to win 24 games while losing just 16 in spite of watching their bullpen deteriorate. After game 122, the Twins are knotted with the White Sox at 69-53 atop the Central with nine and a half games separating the two teams from the third place Tigers making it quite apparently that it will come down to either the South Siders or the Twinks (especially given the state of the Tiger bullpen) to claim victor. What contributions helped the Twins to climb into a first-place tie?

* Twins go on the offensive. As each quarter progressed, the Twins have improved with each of the passing three quarters. In the first quarter, the Twins were scoring 4.36 runs per game. In the second, they had improved the output by just under one run per game. By the third quarter of the season, the Twins were churning out runs, scoring a run more per game then the first quarter:

	games	avg	obp	slg	hrs	runs per game
1st Quarter	41	.264	.313	.374	23	4.36
2nd Quarter	41	.280	.341	.422	33	5.24
3rd Quarter	40	.288	.354	.429	31	5.45

* Three Words: Keiunta Denard Span. One of the best improvements the Twins made all season came at Ron Gardenhire's pen stroke. On July 22nd in the Bronx Gardenhire started his day by writing in Denard Span's name at the lead-off spot. There has not been a better offensive catalyst out there. When Span reaches base as a lead-off hitter the Twins typically score 1.27 runs per inning. For comparison's sake, when Carlos Gomez would reach base leading off an inning, the Twins would score 1.22 runs. The difference is that under those circumstances, Span was reaching base 35% of the time while Gomez was doing so only 29% of the time. When he was recalled on June 30th with the injury to Michael Cuddyer, Span immediately became an immediate impact player for the Twins offense and defense. Since his promotion from Rochester part duex, Span has hit .318/.399/.480 with 16 extra base hits in 174 plate appearances. His high walk rate (11.4%) and low strikeout rate (11.4%) made him an ideal candidate to replace Carlos Gomez at the top of the order when Gomez's continued unsatisfactory lead-off at-bats amassed. Having Span in right field (.958 rzr) complements Gomez at center field, making it almost impossible for opponents to find flyballs finding the turf - and if they do manage to find the right-center the closing speed limits the possibility for an extra base.

* Releasing Livan Hernandez and Craig Monroe... These were maneuvers were a season in the making. Unlike Sidney Ponson in 2007 who was a disaster each of the seven times the ball was handed to him, the problem with Livan Hernandez was that his winning record (10-8) masked the reality that he was the worst pitcher in the league (6.34 xFIP). In his five starts in the third quarter, Hernandez went 2-3 with a 6.44 era as opposing batters hit an MVP-like .336/.372/.512 scoring 4.2 runs per game. In his outings leading up to the third quarter Hernandez was essentially the same pitcher except that he possessed an 8-5 record with a 5.22 era but the opponents mashed him just the same, hitting .342/.366/.503 but scored just 3.5 runs per game. Admittedly the 6-1 start helped the Twins out of the gate and allowed for Francisco Liriano to polish the finishing touches on his rehab in the minor leagues, but when he was finally deemed ready, it was time to jettison Hernandez. Craig Monroe was just a disappointment, plain and simple. His acquisition was based on obtaining a power bat to hit left-handed pitching. Unfortunately the opposite was true, he slugged just .230 against the southpaws and .605 against his right-handed counterparts. He did against the righties what was desired of him against left-handed pitching, hitting a home run every 13.8 plate appearances, making him a somewhat useful pinch-hitter but that was the extend of his use. With no place in the field and Jason Kubel doing just fine against right-handed pitching (.520 slugging) Monroe proved to be a waste of roster space. In 43 plate appearances in the third quarter of the season, Monroe hit just .162/.279/.297. It was apparent that Monroe's days in Minnesota were numbered.

* ...Gaining Francisco Liriano and Randy Ruiz. No, it is not the F-Bomb of 2006 nor is it the F-Bombed at the beginning of the 2008 season either fortunately. In his first three starts, just 10.1 innings of work, opponents hit .366/.509/.415 - with a horrendous 13 walks to 7 strikeouts. After the demotion to Rochester, Liriano returned with better velocity and a bit more confidence in his off-speed pitches. His next three starts since his return on August 3rd look like a different person. In those three starts Liriano went 18.2 innings and held opponents to a .167/.247/.273 batting line. Additionally he has struck out 15 batters and walked just 7. Scouts have said he still has a long way to go to get back to the 2006 form (if ever) but his location is down in the zone resulting in more groundballs (54% in August). When the Twins dropped Craig Monroe, they fished out possibly the best power-hitting right-handers in the organization. Some will hesitate to say that Ruiz should have been deserving of playing time at the onset of the 2008 season because of his lack of plate appearances above AA, but he continued his Van Damme-like assult on left-handed pitching in the International League with Rochester, hitting .315/.386/.495 off of them forcing the Twins to consider giving him his first major league at-bat. Since the Twins did not make a trade deadline deal, the Hernandez/Monroe for Liriano/Ruiz is looking like it could be the blockbuster that milks out a few more wins than the latter could have.

* Just Joe Nathan. It is easy to look past Nathan's contributions because he is doing what he is suppose to do with his 4-year, $47-million dollar contract but in the third quarter of the season, he IS the bullpen. Forgetting about his August 5th appearance in Seattle in which Gardenhire wisely deployed him from the bullpen in the eighth inning, but Nathan was unable to fix Matt Guerrier's mess - he has been downright nasty dominate. In the 18 appearances in the third quarter of the season, Nathan pitched 18 innings and struck out 20 (29% of batters faced) while walking 6 (8% of batters faced). Opponents hit just .131/.221/.230 with the one run surrendered coming on a home run that was meaningless to everybody minus the Swisher family. The problem is ensuring that the ball gets to Nathan, which did not seem to have a defined path this past quarter as Matt Guerrier (19 innings, 19 runs, 8.52 era) and Jesse Crain (16.2 innings, 11 runs, 5.40 era) failed to adequately safeguard late-inning leads. If this continues, Joe Nathan might be forced to be his own set-up man.

* Having Nick Punto on the roster. In 2007, that sucking sound heard at 34 Kirby Puckett Place wasn’t originating from letting the air vacate through the doors but rather the source was Nick Punto’s swing. His season wasn’t just bad. It was beyond the pale. The word “Puntoesque” became tantamount to the term “Mendoza Line”. Fans clamored to hold him down and tattoo EPIC FAILURE on his forehead. Sure, condemn Nick Punto's 2007 all you want, but when it comes to 2008 he has been an integral part of the team, especially in the third quarter when Alexi Casilla was forced onto the DL with a thumb injury. In 144 plate appearances between June 29th and August 16th, Punto has batted .269/.319/.400 while scoring 17 runs and driving in 15 more. In his limited time in the third quarter of the year, Casilla was hitting .313/.337/.385 in 103 plate appearances. You could certainly conclude that Casilla's on-base presences is more valuable, but Punto has had a OPS of .719 while Casilla's was .722. In this regard, Punto has been more than a suitable replacement number two hitter in Casilla's stead.

* Rays of Hope. One could have casted an eye of doubt on the winter trade of Delmon Young and Brendan Harris. After all, Matt Garza has been a fixture in the Rays rotation, compiling 143.2 innings and going 10-7 with a 3.63 era. Numbers that would have looked damn good on the Twins side of the ledger. But this quarter more than ever proved to be an ever increasing valuable. Prior to the third quarter of the season Harris was hitting .249/.309/.352 in 294 plate appearances with 4 home runs and 34 runs scored. Post-June 29th, however, Harris began muscling up. In 116 plate appearances Harris has batted .298/.353/.481 with 2 home runs and 14 runs scored. In the first two quarters, Harris had an extra base hit rate of 28%, this past quarter he had a 45% extra base hit rate. Delmon Young, like Harris, took 82 games to figure out his swing. In the first two quarters of the season, Young hit .281/.329/.378 with 2 home runs. After June 29th, Young has hit .320/.358/.469 with 5 home runs in 160 plate appearances.

Looking towards the last stretch of the seasons, what factors could come into play as we progress into the fourth quarter of the year?

* Passing on Chad Bradford. As noted early, the Twins bullpen is in rough shape. Not Detroit Tiger rough, but definitely ragged. The 7th and 8th innings appear to be, at best, a roulette situation between Guerrier, Crain and Dennys Reyes. Since the all star break, the relievers have produced a 4.42 era, inflated above the American League average of 4.29 in the second half of the year. Without any emerging bullpen candidates ready to assume set-up role in Rochester, the Twins had the opportunity to claim Chad Bradford off the waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Bradford, the underhanded slinging righty, has induced groundballs on nearly 70% of the balls put into play. The Twins have said that their scouts looked closely at Bradford, but ultimately decided that he was not suitable for the Twins and passed allowing the Rays, a direct competitor for the AL Wild Card, to claim him. Whether or not this non-move proves crucial to the Twins playoff push remains to be seen but Bradford has already contributed to the Rays bullpen as in 3.2 innings of work, he has not be scored upon although he did allow one inherited runner to score.

* Can the starting rotation hold it together? Nick Blackburn is flirting with the threshold for most innings thrown in his professional career. Currently with 144.7 innings logged he is encroaching on his season high of 159.7 rapidly. The reason the Twins took the opportunity to claim Jarrod Washburn was to place Blackburn in the bullpen to ensure he would be fresh for the playoffs. Needless to say, a deal could not be brokered between Seattle and Minnesota so Washburn remains in the Puget Sound area. The fact remains that the Twins have a lot of pitchers that are reaching the maximum amount of innings pitched in a given season. Glen Perkins is at 110 with his max of 134 which he threw in 2005 on the horizon. Francisco Liriano has thrown 152 innings combined between the minors and majors in 2008 - no one has to be reminded of how many innings he logged last year. It is the youth coupled with the concern that their arms could breakdown come September that makes front office's give pause when a pitcher like Jarrod Washburn floats across the waiver wires.

The Friday Flotsam

* Joe Christensen reported that the Twins claim both right-fielder Raul Ibanez and starting left-handed pitcher Jarrod Washburn but negotiations to complete a trade came back fruitless. The interest in Ibanez is justified as the combination of Carlos Gomez's futile at-bats pile up and Michael Cuddyer's compounded injuries has left the offensive production in the outfield flat. In 472 plate appearances this season, Ibanez is hitting .292/.356/.496 with 19 home runs. Playing in the Metrodome that favors left-handed batters with the inviting Baggy within reach would certainly improve the offense. His defense, however, leaves something to be desired as USS Mariner has often highlighted this: "His defense is, of course, horrible. There’s no denying this - he’s one of the very worst defensive players still being allowed to carry a glove. Every advanced defensive metric shows this to be true. His Fielding Bible +/- is -14 plays (or about -12 runs) so far this year. His UZR is -18. This follows exactly in line with what we’d expect, considering how bad he’s been with the glove the last few years." As bad as he has been, he has proven to be better than Delmon Young this season. As a left fielder with the Mariners, Ibanez has had 237 expected outs in 1031.0 innings and has converted 231 of those outs (-6). Meanwhile Young, In 990 innings in left has made 217 outs from the 230 expected outs (-13). Furthermore, Ibanez's revised zone rating of .887 bests Young's .840. That's a sad realization. Dave Cameron, one of the writers at USS Mariner, continued in that article to theorize that despite Ibanez's impending free agent status at the end of the season, it behooves the Mariners to retain him. Ibanez will undoubtedly be labeled a Type A Free Agent. A Type A Free Agent, when signed by another team, would net the Mariners two draft picks. Hence not trading Ibanez would provide the Mariners with a $5.5 million off of the payroll and two prospects to be named later. Therefore, trading him away would result in the Twins getting a half-season of Raul Ibanez (at the expense of Carlos Gomez's defense, which is decision to move the best defensive center fielder in the league) and two draft picks in next season's draft. Seattle, aware of trading Ibanez means two prospects, was probably requesting what they believe Ibanez's current value plus two low-level prospects. The Twins could have flipped three prospects in exchange for Ibanez only to replenish them in the next draft. Still all of this speculation is moot since a team with a lower record than the Twins claimed Ibanez prior to the Twins and did not reach an agreement.

* Albert Einstein said the definition of insanity is "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Not long ago, the Twins cut tied with the ineffective Livan Hernandez and possibly felt naked without the "veteran presence" or "innings eater" in the rotation and decided to claim Jarrod Washburn when the Mariners posted him. The only difference between Hernandez and Washburn is that Washburn is still under contract in 2009 for $10.35 million - a disastrous amount to dedicate to a pitcher of this caliber especially when the Twins have an assortment of pitchers to bring into the rotation from within the system. SI's Jon Heyman speculates that the entire maneuver of the Twins claiming Washburn was to block the White Sox from obtaining him as they need to find a replacement for Jose Contreras. This is a curious theory. As you can see by the chart below, Washburn is essentially a left-handed version of Livan Hernandez. Inserting Washburn into the White Sox rotation would mostly likely benefit the Twins. In addition to that, the block (if that was indeed what Bill Smith was attempting) could have backfired and the Twins could have actually wound up with him like the San Diego Padres and their ill-fated claim of Randy Myers in 1998 which cost the Padres $12 million dollars and two years of Myers not pitching. A pitcher of declining talent on the payroll at $10 million 2009 is not the route the franchise wants to take.

	age	innings	k/9	bb/9	k/bb	hr/9	fip
Hernandez	33	139.2	3.48	1.87	1.86	1.16	4.62
Washburn	33	135.2	5.17	2.7	1.90	1.06	4.52

* Speaking of Livan Hernandez, ESPN's Jason Stark noted that the agreement between the Twins and the Colorado Rockies included the Rockies paying for the remainder of the $1 million left on his contract. Turns out this move could come back to haunt the Twins after all. The problem is that the Twins are accountable for his incentives. According to the contract, once Hernandez reaches 160 innings (he's currently at 142 innings), the Twins will owe him $133,333 for every five innings he pitches the rest of the season. If he does get to 200 innings this season - as he has done each season this century - it would mean the Twins would be liable to pay him $1.1 million.

* The Twins square off against Carlos Silva to open the series against Seattle. Silva, who was quoted by the Seattle press as saying "Maybe half of the team wants to do the best they can. Every time (the starters) cross that line, we want to do our best. No matter how many games we are behind. But maybe half of the team doesn't have that mentality. They are only thinking of finishing strong, and to put up their numbers. That's great, but that affects us. As a team, that doesn't work out." While it "takes balls" (as Aaron Gleeman appropriately labeled it) when you call out your entire team in a post-game locker room interview as you sport a 4-13 record with a 5.93 era, but in an odd way he is right. Nobody has ever claimed Silva to be a superstar pitcher. Seattle misguidedly handed him his 4-year, $48-million contract and those that executed it are now looking for employment. Here's what is factual about Carlos Silva:

1) He is a groundball pitcher (50% groundball rate on his career),

2) that rarely strikes hitters out (3.78 per 9 innings),

3) but doesn't walk them either (1.63 bb per 9 innings).

His era fluctuated between 2004-2007 with the Twins, but it also coincided with the Twins defensive abilities. In 2004 the Twins posted a .684 defensive effieceny ratio. Silva posted a 4.21 era. In 2005 the Twins posted one of the league's best defensive efficiency ratio of .701 while Silva matched that with his career best 3.44 era. In 2006, the Twins pitching staff suffered a half-season with Tony Batista and Juan Castro before exchanging that for the superior defensive of Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett finishing with a .684 defensive efficiency ratio. Silva clearly was the biggest negative recipient of the Batista/Castro defense as through his first eight starts that season resulting in an era of 8.80, a WHIP of 1.69 and a demotion to the bullpen. After several outings in relief Silva returned to rotation and pitched more typical of his track record as indicated by his 4.95 era and 1.45 WHIP. In 2007 the Twins matched their previous season's defensive efficiency ratio (.684) resulting in a very family 4.19 era. It was this consistency, the ability to pitch a lot of innings and a dried-out pitching market (Lohse or Silva? Lohse or Silva?) that sent his price to the moon. Unfortunately the Mariners did not have a strong defensive infrastructure equipped to handle a groundball pitcher. Seattle has a .672 defensive efficiency ratio, second to last in the American League, meaning that additional groundballs are leaking through the infield. Whether the Mariners DFA Silva or eventually find a trading partner that is willing to take on that contract, it is clear that in order to obtain production out of Carlos Silva, his next team better be solid defensively.

We All Make Sacrifices

Team	Sac Bunt	RISP Avg
Min	39	.313
Tor	35	.244
Tex	34	.289
Cle	28	.263
Det	27	.271
Sea	27	.246
NY	26	.259
KC	25	.279
Bos	23	.269
Laa	23	.293
Bal	22	.295
Chi	22	.282
Oak	19	.266
Tb	16	.240

Since baseball has no time measurement the sport relies on the increment of outs, particularly 27 outs per side (or 24 if you are the home team with the lead after the top of the 9th), to act as the clock. Researchers from George Lindsay to Pete Palmer have discovered long ago the value of not giving away outs, condemning the practice of sacrificing, the act of exchanging an out for 90 feet. Data has shown that foregoing the sacrifice will help produce more offense over the course of a season. Bill Felber in his analysis of the game of baseball wrote in his book "The Book on the Book" that there are just a few times in which a sacrifice is useful. In short specifically when a) a your pitcher not named Micah Owings is batting or b) you have shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt (.259/.273/.358) batting and you are playing for one run. This is because on the whole trading one of your outs for a base decreases the likelihood that a run will score. Probability wise, when there are no outs and a runner on first, the team batting will score an average of .907 runs. Giving up an out for second base decreases the amount of runs scored by -.187.

Armed with this knowledge, why do managers - especially American League managers that do not have to suffer from the dreaded offensive void from a pitcher batting - choose to surrender one of the precious 27 outs? Ron Gardenhire has implemented the sacrifice bunt 39 times thus far in the 2008 season leading the league in the category. The practice allow infuriorates some statheads. Gardenhire has readily accepted 39 outs. Why? More importantly, if sacrificing bunting impedes the ability to amass runs, how are the Twins discarding this commonly accepted theory and are still fifth in the league in runs scored per game?

Gardenhire's main perpretrator for the bunt has been whomever is batting in the two spot (15 sacrifice bunts). The two-hitter has been used without discrimination, it does matter whether it Alexi Casilla (8 sac bunts), who was batting a productive .315/.352/.414 while hitting second, or Brendan Harris (4 sac bunts), who was batting an inferior .250/.327/.354 following the lead-off batter. The decision to ask a batter who has been hitting .250 to lay down a bunt certainly lends credence over requesting someone batting .315 to, but it becomes slightly more logical to bunt when you consider that with a runner on first, both Harris and Casilla have grounded in doubleplays 7% of the time. The choice of sacrificing one out instead of the cost of two is more reasonable: With two outs and no one on base, the chances of scoring a run in that inning decrease from .907 with a runner on first and no outs to .114 with no runners on and two outs.

Casilla is not the only hitter batting over .300 that Gardenhire would rather bunt then swing. Denard Span has recorded 6 sacrifice bunts as well while batting .309 on the season. In addition to the 18 sacrifice bunts by Casilla, Harris and Span, Gardenhire has had the light-hitting Adam Everett to square up on five pitches. Recent power surge notwithstanding, Everett has been as close to dreadful at the plate as possible. His .214/.273/.347 batting line does not inspire much confidence that he will successfully reach base and advance the runner simultaneously. This, of course, was not news. The Twins invested a significant amount of time in the spring getting Everett to hone his bunting skills. Situationally, however, three of Everett's sacrifices have come while he was batting eight with a statistically similar Carlos Gomez (.254/.291/.344) hitting behind him. Technically Gomez has only recorded 2 sacrifice bunts, though he has attempted 56 bunts, reaching base successfully 48% of the time. Not only does Gomez advance a runner, but he also increases the opportunity of converting what would be a sacrifice to a hit with his speed. Under the circumstances with runners on first and second and no outs, the offensive team typically score an average of 1.515 runs.

As described previously, moving a runner up to second at the expense of an out costs the team -.187 runs. When considering how to deploy a hitter like Adam Everett or Carlos Gomez with a runner on first and no outs one must determine what is the chances he will either a) reach first successfully through a hit in turn advancing the lead run, b) record an out but put the ball in play in a manner that would advance the runner on first (a rarity considering the events that have to transpire in order to have a fielder's choice happen while avoiding a doubleplay), c) strike out or d) ground into a doubleplay. Though Everett rarely strikes out (11%) he is prone to hitting plenty of infield flyballs (11%) and his batting average on balls in play (.229) suggest that he will be converted to an out without advancing the runner (or worse recording two outs). Similarly Gomez is a strikeout machine (23.5%) and matches Everett's infield fly propensity (14%) suggesting that the possibility of Gomez propelling the leading runner forward to be minimal. To waste an out with a low level of advancement success can me more detrimental to a ball club than the -.187 at the expense of a sacrifice. If Everett or Gomez fail to move the runner to second at the same time recording an out, the run possibility decreases from .907 to .544 (-.363 net loss). That said a successful sacrifice bunt would gain a potential +.176 runs over a failed plate appearance that resulted in an out with a runner on first.

So why hasn't the excessive bunting cost the Twins runs? Without reviewing a season's worth of play-by-play data, it is hard to determine how many runners that were advanced on those 39 sacrifices ultimately scored but it would be easy to assume that a good percentage did cross the plate. A possible explanation for this has been the Twins' gaudy batting average with runners in scoring position. 31.3% of at-bats the Twins have managed to hit safely, driving in 465 of their 592 runs under those circumstances. Having Casilla or Harris move Gomez to second or third with one out in front of Mauer (.351 with risp) or Morneau (.376 with risp) ensuring that one run will score. Certainly this disregard for 39 outs could have a negative effect on the runs that COULD HAVE scored if Casilla or Span were allowed to swing away as the season progresses but Gardenhire appears to be playing the numbers and it is working for the team.

Up too late.

* I hate being up at 12:19 am writing. Especially after a brutal extra innings Twins loss to the Yankees...

* After complaints about his playing time, the Tigers have opted to place Gary Sheffield on waivers. As I suggested back in January, the Gary Sheffield trade is proving to be ill-advised for the Detroit Tigers. After trading Anthony Claggett, Humberto Sanchez, and Kevin Whelan to the Yankees for Sheffield, they signed him to a two-year, $28-million dollar extension for 2008 and 2009. Now 38 years old, Sheffield has seen his numbers decline and his injuries increase as the months pass in a season. His best month, June, consisted of just 29 plate appearances as he hit .286/.310/.536. "I can be in the outfield and play every day. I don't want to DH," Sheffield told the Boston Globe. "I don't feel like a baseball player when I DH. I don't know how to be the leader that I am from the bench. I can't be a vocal leader. I can't talk to guys from the bench because I don't feel right about it." Interestingly enough, Sheffield has not played a relevant position since 2005 when he logged 1,099 innings at right field for the Yankees. Commented general manager Dave Dombrowski, the orchestrator of the Sheffield acquisition, "If he's found out he doesn't like it, well, that's the only role we have for him at this time. He has not shown from a health perspective that he's been able to play every day in the outfield. He just has to perform the task that's asked of him."

* Like the Tigers, the Yankees might be falling into a similar trap of relying too much on their veteran talent. Hank Steinbrenner noted that the injuries to key players such as Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in 2008 while provide the Yankees the opportunity to return to the World Series in 2009 when they are fully healed. "We're going to win it next year," Steinbrenner said. "If we need to add a top veteran pitcher, we'll do that. We'll do whatever we need to do. Next year we'll be extremely dangerous." Certainly the Yankees have the cash to sign either Ben Sheets or C.C. Sabathia, both of whom the Brewers have said they do not have the money to resign and either (or both) will look good with Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy in the 2009 rotation. However, the Yankees are plenty deficient in several areas that will need addressing. Defensively they are atrocious and not getting younger. Derek Jeter, currently 33 years old, is due $20 million in 2009 and $21 million in 2010. Obviously the money means nothing to the likes of a Steinbrenner, as indicitive of the 10-year, $275 million contract given to Alex Rodriguez, but Jeter is almost certain to decline further as a shortstop in those years. According to Baseball-Reference.com, his most comparable player at 33 is Roberto Alomar. Alomar never had another season offensively where his statistics were above league average after turning 33 and was traded twice and shamefully retired a Tampa Bay Devil Ray in 2005 without playing an inning that season. With $41 million committed to Jeter in the next two seasons, he seems as immovable for New York as the Statue of Liberty - there are few organizations that a) need an aging shortstop and b) have the resources to pay for it. Aside from requesting he relocate to second base, the only likelihood of gaining value out of Jeter is to trade him to an organization that loves to obtain aging talent. But Jeter isn't the only problem, the list goes on. Jorge Posada is due $39.1 million through 2011. Posada is 36 years old and is brittle as a catcher, most likely destined to be a first baseman or designated hitter as he approaches 40. His bat can still swing and hope is that he winds up being similar to his most comparable player, Carlton Fisk, who had relevant years in to his 44th year. But Fisk proves to be the exception in terms of longevity for a catcher. A great target to plunder would be the Tampa Bay organization. Not just because the Yankees operate out of Tampa and are likely hobnobbing with the front office of Tampa, but Tampa has a meaty minor league system, a taste of a pennant race but empty seats. Like Kansas City in the 1950s and 1960s, Tampa Bay could become a suitable trading partner for the Yankees when attempting to dump enormous contracts of aging players albeit headlining talent able to bring fans to the ballpark on to a region that could use drawing power. Yes, it is far-fetched considering that Tampa's first competitive season was conceived because they were no longer investing in washed-up talent but rather homegrown prospects. Certainly the Rays could fall into the same trap that the Yankees did when they exchanged Sheffield for three of the Tigers prospects after they fell short of October glory in 2006. If you are Brian Cashman, trading the players that still have some luster left should be a priority.

* Sports Illustrated's John Donovan does not foresee Francisco Liriano as the savior, but he certainly could be the difference maker in the American League Central race as the White Sox's Jose Contreras will be out for the season. Would you rather have Liriano or D.J. Carrasco/Lance Broadway as your 5th starter?

* The Star Tribune highlighted the background of the three Pohland boys, Jim (55), Bob (54) and Bill (52). Though I'm sure the trio will do a very good job of fronting the organization, I still am confounded by the story Jay Weiner relayed in his book Stadium Deal: Fifty Years of Greed and Bush League Boondoggles in which a meeting with the Twins executives and scouts resulting in Bill, the brother that helped finance movies such as 'Brokeback Mountain', asking the group why baseball players didn't have uniformed swings like golfers only to get disbelieving stares in return.

* On Monday, the Twins inked Bobby Kielty to a minor league deal, having him report to Rochester. There are a lot of positives in the career of Bobby Kielty. For starters, Kielty displayed great patience, sporting a career walk rate of 11.8%, and was a tough strike out (just 17.8% of his plate appearances) for a player with the power that Kielty had (.408 career slugging). As for the biggest highlight of his career Kielty smacked a pinch-hit solo home run in the deciding Game Four against the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series. This past off season the 31-year-old Kielty was one of the affordable free agents who mashes left-handed pitching. In his seven season, Kielty has hit .296/.379/.503 against southpaws as a right-handed batter but has seen his production decrease when turning around to the left side of the plate to face right-handed pitchers, hitting .228/.329/.348. His low price tag made him a target among stats worshippers, identifying him as the ideal platoon partner in the outfield or as a designated hitter. The Red Sox, a team that employs Bill James, decided to retain Kielty and let him battle for the 4th outfield position. Kielty was beset with a bone growth in his right hand that had been bothering him for several seasons that finally became a problem in the form of a fracture in the height of spring training. "It had been something that had hung around for a few years," said Kielty. "Then I suffered a fracture on it, and I decided that I needed to have surgery done for myself and my career. If I didn't do it, it would be something that would be nagging me for a long time." Kielty opted for surgery in May that would significantly impede his ability to compete for a roster spot in 2008 given his accelerated age. During his rehabilitation stint with the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, Kielty suffered yet another setback this time in the form of a oblique pull that would cost Kielty another month of recovery. In 2008, Kielty has had a grand total of 108 at-bats hitting .241/.366/.417 split between the California League, the New York-Penn and the International League. Still Kielty has proven that he can still wallop the lefties batting .333/.485/.625 in hist 24 at-bats this year. The additional injury to Michael Cuddyer tarnished any thoughts of him returning to be a contributing bat in the Twins lineup against lefties during the stretch run. If the Twins utilize Kielty right, which is to say using him against the left, the Twins might find value in his signing. Even if he never fully recovers this season, Kielty give Rochester a replacement bat for Randy Ruiz.

The Friday Flotsam

* The Twins are now one-half game behind the White Sox in the American League Central, thanks to a steadfast Detroit Tiger bullpen who fended off Chicago 8-3. The Tigers have had a tough month of August. After trading Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for former closer Kyle Farnsworth at the trade deadline in efforts to solidify a bullpen riddled with injuries, the Tigers relievers have responded with a 5.21 era in 19 innings pitched in August. The Twins are landing in Kansas City ready for a three-game series against the Royals, finding themselves in one of the most beneficial situations since Matt Dillon signed on to do Wild Things. As the Twins prepare for a series against a team that has a losing record at home (27-32), the White Sox, meanwhile, have a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox. Now, maybe it is over-inflating the situation comparing it to a Campbell/Richards sandwich when the Red Sox have not performed well on the road (26-33) and are Manny-less, but since jettisoning Ramirez and acquiring Jason Bay, the Red Sox are 5-1. So the fact still remains the Twins are in a good position to ascend in the standings over this weekend.

* Like the Twins who are discovering offensive answers within their own system, the Royals finally took the initiative and promoted the 27-year-old shortstop Mike Aviles. Since his call up in May, Aviles has received 231 plate appearances and has hit 7 home runs and is batting .330/.355/.529. Baseball Prospectus 2008 described Aviles as a good-bat, no-glove shortstop. Considering the alternatives the Royals have deployed in recent memory, sacrificing a little glove love is understanding. After all, it took the Royals three entire seasons of medicrity of Angel Berroa before deciding to move on to Tony Pena Jr. "I can remember turning in good reports on him,” John Wathan, Royals Assistant to Player Development said. “I had him labeled as a major-league second baseman with the ability to fill in at shortstop. I was always impressed with his bat.”

Year	Royals SS	plate appearances	batting average	on-base percentage	slugging
2008	Aviles	231	.330	.355	.529
2007	Pena	532	.268	.282	.357
2006	Berroa	501	.235	.260	.355
2005	Berroa	652	.270	.305	.375
2004	Berroa	554	.262	.308	.385
2003	Berroa	635	.287	.338	.451

* The Royals will open the series with Kyle Davies, the right-hander the they acquired in trade with the Atlanta Braves for Octavio "Shhh!" Dotel in 2007. Davies has recorded victories in his last two starts in spite of going only 5 innings in each of those games. “You don’t want to give up runs, but you also want to make sure you go deep into games,” Davies said. “One of the reasons you are a starting pitcher is to go out there and go as long as you can. Four or five innings is not very good for the team.” A completely valid point, especially for someone opening up the a three-game series in which a bullpen can be fried quickly in the first game. The Twins need to strike quickly tonight in efforts to make Royals manager Trey Hillman dig into his bullpen early.

* The Tampa Bay Rays, in their first ever pennant race, grabbed Chad Bradford off of the waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. "A very interesting acquisition," Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said. "No hitter says, 'Oh good, we have a sinkerballer coming in. It's a different weapon that we haven't had." The Rays will send the Orioles a player-to-be-named-later with the $3.5 million due to Bradford for 2009. Bradford, while posting a solid era, has been in a steady decline when gauging his peripheral statistics. His strikeout rate has dropped from 17% in 2006 to 10% in 2007 to 8% this season. Strange enough, his velocity has decreased but then gained speed this season. His fastball went from 79 mph in 2007 to 78 in 2007 to 80 this year. One of the best aspects about Bradford is that he was inducing groundballs nearly 70% of the time this year while pitching in high leverage situations - next to closer George Sherrill and Jim Johnson, Bradford has been the Orioles most reliable reliever in tough situations. Dave Cameron did an nice analysis of him at Fangraph. The Twins, who with the lower record than the AL East leading Rays had the ability to claim Bradford prior to Tampa, could have definitely used his arm out of the pen down the stretch run. It will be interesting to see the organizations explanation for not claiming Bradford - most likely due to his large contract.