Thursday, May 29, 2008

The Inning.

It pays to have fortitude, intestinal or otherwise. Such as Delmon Young, for example. Yes, he could have lost sleep watching ESPN replay his misguided lunge at the dying fly ball followed by his blank stare at the third base umpire while Mark Teahan circled the bases as Joe Nathan glowered at him for the foolhardy effort at a heroic catch. Then again, maybe he did. Lack of sleep would explain some of his play.

The mistake evidently carried into Wednesday's ballgame and manifested itself in the middle innings. In the bottom of the fourth inning the Twins and Royals were deadlocked at 2-2. Livan had just gotten Tony Pena Jr to fly out to Cuddyer for the first out of the inning. This, of course, is the unexpected results from a batter hitting .164/.185/.205 in the 8th spot. Whether the Royals are philosophically against the sacrifice bunt (understandable since they have been outscored by 54 runs this year) and did not signal it in again or that Pena Jr made the decision on his own to swing away (which is strange because he has bunted 10 times with 4 base hits), whatever the case might be the option to swing with just the one strike and resulting in an unproductive out worked in the Twins favor. True, the danger still remained as the girthy Billy Butler resided at second and the speedy utility man Alberto Callapso was behind Butler at first and the Royals would have the top of the order with two outs remaining but this situation lent itself for a potential double play and Livan Hernandez was quite good at stranding base-runners (75% lob%).

But David DeJesus did what a good left-handed batter should do when he got the first offering from Livan, which was a thigh high fastball on the outer-half of the plate: he lined it to left for Delmon Young. Here's a bit of background on Delmon Young. Last year with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Young logged 1,134 innings in right field and threw out 11 base runners. According to the Fielding Bible, baserunners had the opportunity to advance 130 on plays to Delmon. Only 56 made the decision to advance and did so successfully (43%). Because of this, he was ranked #3 among right fielders for throwing (our very own Michael Cuddyer was #4 despite having more kills). When the Twins acquired Young this past off-season, the consensus was to move him to left where they would utilize both Cuddyer's and Young's arm as the best tandem corner outfielder arms in professional baseball. In 456 innings to date, Young has had 5 kills but 45% of baserunners are successful in their extra base exploits (27 advanced on 58 opportunities). Currently he is ranked 26. So when Delmon Young unleashed a throw from left field of a stadium in the far western portion of the Show-Me-State that split third and home on a frozen rope headed towards Topeka this continued his defensive downward spiral.

The Royals started to pick on him as if he were some kind of exposed nerve. Joey Gathright lofted a fly ball to him to score Callapso from third (who had moved up from second on Young's throwing error). Instead of attempting a play at the plate, Young wisely lobbed the ball into Mike Lamb who had repositioned himself in the same spot he was in a play prior. With two outs and DeJesus moved up to second on the throwing error on Young, Hernandez's left-on-base rate looked at jeopardy. Hernandez went to work on the Royals front-running MVP for the first half of the season in Alex Gordon. Ahead 1-2 to the young third baseman, Hernandez threw a 83 mph fastball up in the zone. Gordon lifted a routine fly ball to Young's direction, a step, maybe two, to his left. There was no indication that anything was wrong. Young seemed to have an eye and a glove on it. Then...he didn't. Gordon's ball hopped along the Kaufman grass as Young gave chase. DeJesus, who was running on contact, scored easily from second and was replaced at the two-bag by Gordon. The Royals had scratched out three runs thanks to the efforts of Delmon Young. Adding the three runs scored from Tuesday night's inside the park home run and Young is now responsible for six Royals runs this series.

But this game is more than just three players. It takes nine to win a ball game (along a handful of bad decisions from the opposing dugout). Certainly Royals manager Trey Hillman was handcuffed because the Twins had forced the Royals on Tuesday to use Ron Mahay (17 pitches), Jimmy Gobble (33 pitches) and closer Joakim Soria (31 pitches) for extended duty effectively rendering them useless on Wednesday. This meant that if necessary in the late innings, the Royals had no left-handed pitching to combat Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau with. But as the innings ticked by, that seemed like and afterthought then a concern. Throughout the game, Zack Greinke looked in control. In his 8 innings of work he had accumulated 8 strike outs (including Gomez and Casilla twice each) and allowed five hits and three earned runs. As Greinke reach 117 pitches through the 8th inning the 5 run lead looked safe. In 20 games this season the Royals have gone into the 8th inning with a lead and had yet to allow for the opposing team to come back, hell with a lead going into the 7th inning the Royals are 18-1. Time to relax and laugh about that silly little nine game losing streak, right?

Hillman reached into his bullpen and produced the 27-year-old Ramon Ramirez. Minus Soria, Ramirez has been the best right-handed reliever for Kansas City. In 21 innings of work, Ramirez has not allowed a home run while not issuing free passes (9% bb%) and striking out batters by the handfuls (29% k%). With Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young both expected up in the 9th it seemed logical to think that Ramirez would be able to match-up well.

Michael Cuddyer is one guy that would like to see a new month. As superstition and arbitrary as it is, the month of May has not been kind to Cuddyer. In 110 plate appearances he is hitting just .214/.287.286 and he is chopping and beating more than half of his balls in to the ground (50%) resulting in a low .263 average on balls in play. Up until this at bat in the top of the ninth, Cuddyer showed no sign of improving his output. In his first at bat he grounded out to second and then he popped out to center and first in his subsequent at-bats. Naturally if you were a Royals fan reading this, you would have no cause for concern. After watching Ramirez's first offering, a 92 mph fastball, go high for a ball, he then let the second go for strike one. The third was dumped foul while the fourth, this time an 89 mph slider, was foul tipped for strike three.

One down.

As Jason Kubel strode to the plate, Trey Hillman maybe felt small pangs of regret. Sure, the lead was large and there were just two small outs left to get, but still this particular circumstance might not have sit right with a veteran manager in the mire of a 9-game losing streak. What Hillman knew was that Rameriz, while nearly unhittable to right-handed batters (.146/.239/.146, zero extra base hits in 46 plate appearances), he was susceptible to the left-handed ones (.297/.350/.378, two extra base hits in 40 plate appearances) and that Kubel hit righties substantially better (.267/.306/.463) than lefties (.176/.237/.176). If he were writing the script, this would not be the match-up Hillman would want. His two left-handed weapons in his bullpen arsenal were forced to watch from the side-lines as Kubel stroked a belt-high fastball through the right-side of the infield for a base hit.

One down, runner on first.

Redemption can be a beautiful thing in baseball. Unfortunately, Delmon Young can offer no salvation for the Twins in the ninth. After coaxing two walks in the earlier innings, Delmon swung out of his shoes on several of Ramirez's 87 mph sliders and ultimately retired himself on a low slider.

Two outs, runner on first.

Now with two outs and a five run lead any kind of Earl Weaveresque type statistical match-up has forsaken Hillman and the Royals as the left-handed batting Mike Lamb takes to the batters box. Like his left-handed brethren in Kubel that proceeded him, Lamb handles right-handed pitching much better (.266/.299/.339 versus .091/.130/.227). On a wild pitch change-up in the dirt, Kubel was given second. His run had little monetary value to the Royals (fractions of a penny). Lamb singled him home on the next pitch, a ground ball through the right side of the infield.

Two outs, runner on first, four run lead.

The fans, or rather the handful of them that a) showed up and b) stuck around this long, appear delirious. They have suffered through a 9-game losing streak and now are poised to finally move on to the next chapter of the season. Little victories mean everything to a franchise that struggles to stay above .500. Like the old Eddie Murphy "Raw" schtick: If you are starving in the desert and someone hands you a cracker, it is the best damn cracker you have ever had. The Twins, meanwhile, have given them back-to-back right-handers to face the hard-throwing Ramirez with just one out remaining. Brendan Harris, the Twins second baseman cum shortstop, has seen his numbers slowly drop from April to May. What's even stranger about Harris is his swing at home and away. In 99 plate appearances on the road Harris had hit fly balls just 28% of the time but in his 87 plate appearances at the Dome, Harris has skied 42% of balls. Here in Kansas City he adds to his road total as a fly ball drops in front of the right fielder Ross Gload.

Two outs, runners on first and second, four run lead.

Carlos Gomez marches to the plate. He is greeted with three straight sliders from Ramirez, two of which bounce in the dirt. As he has done nearly 60% of the time, Carlos Gomez redirects a 92 mph fastball back up the middle, splitting the converging Pena Jr and Callapso. Mike Lamb scores from second reducing the lead to three and bringing up the tying run to the plate.

Two outs, runners on first and second, three run lead.

After twenty pitches and four hits, Hillman had seen enough of Ramirez. Oh how he wished he had his relief ace available, the guy that is kept around for moments just like this. Three pitches or less to send the crowd home with a victory. Soria is not available. Hillman turns to Joel Peralta. Peralta has been one of the more reliable Kansas City relievers and one that has lasted on the roster since 2006. Ron Gardenhire pulled one of the few bench moves he had in Craig Monroe. In his career, Monroe has pinch hit 42 times and hit one home run. Peralta started Monroe off with a 86 mph slider for a ball then poured several 93-94 mph fastballs at various locations around the plate to Monroe - mostly away and then began to work his way inside as the count crept even. On Peralta's sixth offering of his outing, Monroe deposited it into the left field bleacher area to tie the game.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Explain That...

As May nears its climax, we find that the Twins are hovering at the .500 mark. This might be five wins more than the most optimistic preseason predictions held and they continue to defy science (or at least sabermetrics). Through 50 games the Pythagorean Theorem suggests that the Twins should be at 23-27, as they have been outscored 243 to 227. In April (and the one March game) the Twins finished the month 13-14 allowing 122 runs while scoring 102 - 20 runs worse than their opponents. Up to this point in May the Twins are 12-11 as they have allowed 121 runs and have managed to score 125, playing slightly better than their competition justifying the winning record. What this says is that while the pitching staff has been status quo in the two months, the offense has been able to manufacture 19 additional runs in four less games in May (with four remaining in the month).

How can this be? How can the Twins have improved by 19 runs? In full disclosure the Twins could actually be almost 27 runs better than their opponents had their not been so many defensive lapses. In 50 games last month, the Twins pitchers' relinquished just 8 unearned runs. This month in 23 games the Twins pitchers have been dinged for 18 unearned runs. Some, such as Patrick Ruesse, would like you to believe that the home run total is the barometer for the franchise and that because several key members are without home runs this team must be a failure. True, the -16 run differential can be attributed some to being out homered 29-to-56 but the offense compensates with a combination of speed (the 77% stolen base rate has led to 2.2 runs according to the formula presented in The Hidden Game of Baseball) and well-timed hits (the Twins have 78 rbis with 2-outs and runners in scoring position while opponents have scored just 61 in the same circumstances) has resulted in tipping the balance towards the Twins in several critical games.

Who are some of these main contributors?

1) Jason Kubel: Kubel's month of May is strikingly similar to the August/September performance of last season. He has increased his plate discipline (6 walks vs. 3 walks) and also his contact (strikeout rate cut in half) from April. Another factor that has led to an increased batting line is that he has decreased his amount of fly balls in play and started to hit more line drives across the field and just like that his babip improves from .250 to .300. Expect more May type results from Kubel as the calender turns to June.

Plate Appearances HR ISOP BB% K% GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG
April 100 4 .136 3% 20% 39% 14% .229 .250 .365
May 56 2 .229 12.5% 10.7% 39% 22% .292 .364 .521

2) Delmon Young: Sure, no home runs yet but has improved in just about every other category, including increasing his walk rate and reducing the strike outs that he was so apt to do last month, last season and in the minor leagues. Is this a new Delmon? To this point this season Young has taken 46% of pitches thrown to him. Last season he watched 38% of pitches. With Tampa Bay in 2007, Delmon's most patient month was also May were he posted a 9.2% walk rate (but he teamed that with a 20% strikeout rate). I would suspect that it is still too early to tell if this is an improved Delmon or a statistical blip. One glaring difference is that he is hitting too many groundballs for a supposed power-hitting (leading to a .235/.235/.265 babip). He must improve the type of ball he is putting in play, that being line drives: last year he finished knocking 20% of his balls for line drives. This season he is hitting just 14% for liners. Also, forget about criticizing him for opposite field hitting - he's batting .400/.400/.560 on balls taken to the right side of the field.

Plate Appearances HR ISOP BB% K% GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG
April 104 0 .051 5.8% 18.3% 62% 14% .255 .298 .306
May 98 0 .103 10.2% 12.2% 65% 15% .276 .351 .379

3) Joe Mauer: Blessed with a better batting eye in the month of May, Mauer walked more and struck out less but what is most impressive is that he has peppered the field with more line drives (24% over 15%) leading to a batting average on balls in play from a hefty .325 in April to gargantuan .424 in May. Suffice it to say, I'd predict a downturn in June simply because it is hard to maintain a hit rate encroaching on 50% for balls put into play - eventually some start finding leather. There is plenty of talk about Mauer rediscovering his opposite field stroke (he is hitting .469 that direction). This is good because he has been absolutely terrible at pulling the ball: On 34 balls in play Joe has had only 6 successful hits, carrying a .176 average on balls to the right side (though he did hit .300 that direction last year). The talking heads on FSN like to reiterate that he has resurrected the swing that won him the batting title in 2006 even though Mauer had a .311 pull average that season.

Plate Appearances HR ISOP BB% K% GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG
April 96 0 .095 10.4% 7.3% 59% 15% .298 .358 .393
May 88 0 .055 17.0% 6.8% 39% 24% .398 .483 .444

4) Carlos Gomez: The strikeouts are still as prominent as ever but the walks (25 versus 23) have begun to creep northward (2 versus 5). Nevertheless, Gomez is on-base 35% of the time giving the Twins every opportunity to drive him a feat which they have accomplished 27 times - led by Joe Mauer's 8 rbi.

Plate Appearances HR ISOP BB% K% GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG
April 100 1 .101 1.0% 24.0% 51% 13% .253 .260 .352
May 88 3 .185 5.7% 26.1% 46% 16% .296 .352 .481

4) Mike Lamb: Truthfully, there was no where else to go but up or out. Thankfully for the Lamb household he improved statistically across the board (offensively at least, he is still suspect with the glove), buying a few more weeks as a starting third baseman. He has 20 rbis but should be sending Delmon Young a nice thank you gift for being on-base for him, as 8 of those rbis has been Mr. Young himself.

Plate Appearances HR ISOP BB% K% GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG
April 81 0 .079 2.5% 11.1% 44% 14% .197 .210 .276
May 72 1 .185 9.7% 13.9% 33% 17% .302 .352 .397

Despite what some naysayers would like you to believe, the Twins have improved their overall offense in the second month. In 979 plate appearances in April, Twins batters hit 14 home runs with 98 rbis while hitting .260/.305/.362 - a fairly average batting line. In the second month, the Twins have accumulated 909 plate appearances and have improved on their home runs mark (15), rbis (118) and have hit significantly better overall: .273/.342/.404. The Twins have coerced 30 more walks this month than the previous one as well as striking out 24 times less. Naturally, the Twins cannot continue at the pace set in April. A team has to outscore its opponents over the course of a 162-game schedule in order to achieve above .500 baseball. To sustain an edge in the American League Central, the Twins will have to have improvement from other key players (Cuddyer, Monroe, Harris). If April showers bring May flowers, May flowers better bring June extra base hits.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Home run pitcher, meet home run hitter



As the Twins climbed back to a 7-7 tie in the 8th inning, manager Ron Gardenhire dispatched one of the league’s elite relievers in Joe Nathan and asked him to retire the five (Murphy), six (Laird) and seven (Byrd) hitters for Texas in the top of the ninth. This is obviously not the most critical of situations yet it was a pivotal place in the game so as not to succumb to the potent Ranger offense – even if they were not the most potent of the Texas lineup. The thought process of the Twins skipper must have been that the Twins had to hold the visitors here and attempt to eek out the winning run with his two bench maneuvers (Mauer and Kubel) and his weakest hitting starter (Lamb). When David Murphy reached on a single to open the inning, it was apparent that Nathan’s pitch count was going to rise. Nathan eliminated both Laird and Byrd on strikeouts but had Murphy reach scoring position at second with a stolen base (his fourth of the year). With first base open, Gardy decided to have Nathan intentionally walk the left-handed batting Ramon Vazquez in order to face the right-handed batting Chris Shelton.

Admittedly the decision to walk Vazquez was merited. In the past two weeks Vazquez has been hitting the ball extremely well. In his 39 plate appearances over the last 14 days, the 31-year-old left-handed batting utility infielder had been hitting .438/.513/.563 (despite being just 2-for-7 with two walks in his two games in the series thus far). On the season the majority of his playing time has come against right-handed pitcher - whom he thrived off of, feasting on them at a .342/.417/.493 clip. Putting Vazquez on first also produced a force at all the bases. Then again, Nathan actually has been more effective against lefties this year. In 38 match-ups against left-handed batters, Nathan has managed to strikeout 12 of them and holding them to a .200/.263/.314 batting line. It is reasonable to believe that Nathan could have won that battle. Thankfully, Texas manager Ron Washington ultimately decided to test that theory when he substituted the switch-hitting Jarrod Saltalamacchia in for Chris Shelton.

Nathan beared down on Saltalamacchia. So far during the season, Nathan has been a two-pitch pitcher to left-handed batters fastball (71%) and slider (21%). Nathan began by pumping three straight 95-96 mph fastballs to Saltalamacchia, all called balls. Nathan made the necessary adjustments and put two within the zone for strikes. Armed with the knowledge that within Nathan's repertoire was a very dominant slider that he had used frequently to obtain a strike out, the 22-year-old Saltalamacchia - a hitter that has been alternatively both patient (21% bb%) and strikeout prone (25% k%) this season - must have had his head swirling at 3-2 with the go-ahead run in Murphy on second. Would the veteran closer be crafty enough to drop a 3-2 slider on the highly-touted sophomore? No, Nathan opted for power and came with a letter-high 96 mph fastball that Saltalamacchia would chase for the third out, stranding Murphy and the Rangers in the ninth.

The focus then switched back to the offense, one that had not scored a ton of runs in the ninth inning. Runs have been difficult to come by for the Twins in the later innings. In 33 games the Twins batters have scored just 10 runs in 139 plate appearances in the ninth. Gardenhire used his first bench move to pinch hit Joe Mauer for Craig Monroe who had been 0-4 up until that point. Using Mauer first was a good move for several reasons. First, Mauer had been hitting .375/.385/.417 in his last 26 plate appearances. Secondly, Mauer has led off innings extremely well so far this season. Leading off 31 times in 2008, Mauer had drawn five walks and hit four of his ten doubles. According to Bill James Online, when Mauer leads off the inning the Twins have scored 0.42 runs that inning. When Mauer reaches base leading off the Twins score 0.93 runs (for reference, Gomez contributes more than a run at 1.75 when he reachs) however when Joe Mauer gets out the Twins have failed to score a run at all that inning. It would be a critical 90 feet to gain but the probability was in the Twins favor: Mauer, a player that reaches base over 40% of the time, facing the right-handed Joaquin Benoit, a hard-throwing former closer that has walked 15% of batters faced and has had 34% of his opponents reach base.

The outcome of the match-up was something that rarely occured when Joe Mauer stepped in the batters box: he struck out (only 7% of the time). Benoit buried a 93-mph hour fastball for a called strike and then swapped the speed for tomfoolery as he froze Joe with an 83-mph change-up. Up until this afternoon the Twins catcher had seen an 0-2 count just 10 times in his 171 plate appearances in 2008. What's more is that he only struck out once on the count that tips heavily towards the pitcher's favor. Benoit stayed with the change-up, one that was bound for the dirt, and Mauer did something that only happened 19 times all season out of 243 swings: he missed. Gerald Laird blocked the ball and tossed Mauer out at first to complete the strikeout. If you believe that statistics are a guiding principle in baseball, the Twins were in for a disappointing inning predetermined by the fact that the Twins have failed to score a run in innings that Mauer leads off and does not reach base.

Gardy then deployed Jason Kubel to hit for Mike Redmond. The confidence in Jason Kubel had waned toward the end of April among the Twins faithful and press. The once lauded Kubel sputtered at the plate in the first month of the season, finishing with a 3% walk rate while striking out in 20% of his plate appearances. The four home runs, while noteworthy, were overshadowed by his inability to get on base. In 100 plate appearances that month, Kubel had reached base just 25% of the time. This led to a disappointing batting line of .229/.250/.365 for the month. As the calender turned to May, Kubel has once again regained presence at the plate. In 46 plate appearance so far in May, Kubel has found his patience and batting eye walking 11% of the time and reducing his strikeouts to 13%. For the month Kubel is batting .275/.333/.475. Like Mauer before him, Kubel had been hitting .333/.474/.400 in the past week. Digging in with a greater amount of concentration this month, Kubel drew a one-out, four-pitch walk from Benoit.

This, of course, brought up the 2008 whipping boy. There isn't a whole lot of statistical explanation for the significant decline in Mike Lamb's production. One difference between his 2007 experience with Houston and his 2008 tenure with the Twins is that he is putting the ball in play in a manner that lends itself for far more outs: fly balls. In 2007, Mike Lamb hit fly balls in 38% of the balls put in play. Currently nearly 50% of his balls in play have been skied. The other difference, naturally, is that of the 102 balls that were airborne in 2007, 10% resulted in a home run. The lack of home runs is definitely a glaring problem but the underlying problem isn't the ends, but it is the means. After hitting 42% of the balls in the air in April, Lamb has regressed in May hitting flyballs 56% of the time. This time though, Lamb did not lift a routine flyball to a Rangers outfielder. This time Mike Lamb chased a Benoit change-up for strike three.

Alexi Casilla, a player that is frequently viewed somewhere between prospect and an afterthought trivia answer to the question Who the Twins received from the Angels in the JC Romero trade, has found himself on the major league roster thanks to injuries to all of the middle infielders. His minor league numbers are somewhat difficult to interpret. In A and high-A, Casilla hit very well for both Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers. Even in 199 plate appearances in double-A New Britain Casilla played well enough to think that he was Luis Castillo's long-term replacement. Yet a move to triple-A and an introduction to major league pitching in 2007 was abysmal and only planted seeds of doubt within the minds of the fans. In the past four games, Casilla has emerged as a decent contributor with the bat. He has batted .273/.308/.545 and slugged his first major league home run, a three-run shot, while amassing six rbis to boot. Benoit fed the left-handed batting Casilla three straight fastballs before dropping a 85-mph change-up that Casilla fended off foul. The fifth pitch, another fastball, Casilla flied to Marlon Byrd in center.

Gardenhire's offensive maneuvers did not pay-off and now he was forced to make another difficult decision, one that had been presented to him just two days prior. On Monday as Joe Nathan finished the 10th inning with just five pitches, Gardy decided to use Juan Rincon to open the 11th inning instead of his elite reliever. Rincon walked two batters while getting only one out. This resulted in Rincon having to be lifted for Bobby Korecky who had to rescue him. For all intents and purposes, that move ended up being one of the best moves Gardenhire had made to date as Korecky ultimately scored the game winning run as well. However, similar to his decision to replace Nathan after five pitches on Monday night, Gardy traded Nathan for Brian Bass to begin the top of the 10th. While there are some differences between Monday's game and Thursday's. For one, on Monday Nathan threw only 5 pitches and the sixth, seventh and eighth hitters were coming up for Texas making it less than critical for your relief ace. Meanwhile Thursday afternoon Nathan threw 25 pitches in the ninth while the following inning had the Rangers first, second and third hitter. The last being masher Josh Hamilton, the best hitting in the American League right now. If there was ever a need for a relief ace, it would be to face the top of an order.

Brian Bass has been the mop-up guy for the Twins, the team has given him the opportunity to cut his teeth in low leverage situations. Batters are hitting him fairly well in those circumstances as well, batting .280/.368/.473 with three home runs. On Tuesday he finished where Glen Perkins had left off in the seventh inning, tossing 2.2 innings, striking out 2 and giving up one run most likely giving Gardenhire a false sense of security. Bass has given up five home runs in 29 innings of work, an absurd 21.5% of the flyballs hit off of him reach the seats.

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Bass, not necessarily a strikeout pitcher (9.0% k%), whiffed both Ian Kinsler and Michael Young to start the 10th. This left just Josh Hamilton to circumvent. This presented several problems for Bass. For starters in his last six games, Hamilton had hit three home runs while batting .560/.577/1.000. He loved to elevate the ball. Hamilton destroys right-handed pitchers, hitting 9 of his 11 home runs off of them and slugging .630. He is the epitome of a dangerous hitter. This begs the question: Why is Brian Bass asked to retire him?

If Gardenhire is protective of Nathan, why wasn't Dennys Reyes used? Reyes, the Twins version of a LOOGY, last pitched on Monday during the 12-inning marathon game. In the 8th inning while staring down the prospect of facing Josh Hamilton, Gardenhire removed Matt Guerrier for the lefty-lefty match-up. Reyes struck out Hamilton. Unfortunately the switch-hitting Milton Bradley followed with a double and left-handed David Murphy singled him home resulting in a blown save. Still, Reyes has had left-handed batters baffled as in 33 match-ups opponents are only hitting .219/.242/.250 striking out 15% of the time too. Mostimportantly, Reyes is the only member of the pitching staff to not have surrendered a home run.

This gross mismanagement of the bullpen - twice this week - has resulted in one win (that required the first pitcher hit in an American League game since the 1970s) and one loss.


Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Best Laid Plans.

According to the Hardball Times the Twins infielders are 12 out of 14 teams in the American League in revised zone rating at .765.

Infield RZR Infield Out Of Zone
1) Oakland Athletics .831 46
2) Toronto Blue Jays .817 65
12) Minnesota Twins .765 31
13) Detroit Tigers .756 51
14) Seattle Mariners .753 61
League Average .784 51

Only the aging Detroit Tigers (.756) and the American League West cellar-dwelling Seattle Mariners (.753) infields have found themselves executing less plays than the Minnesota Twins. This, of course, is reasonable in the case of the Tigers who have played musical position with Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen at the corner bases. The Tigers started the stone-legged Cabrera at third to begin the season. It was there in 116 innings that Cabrera held a RZR of .600, bad enough to incite Jim Leyland to swap him with Carlos Guillen at first base. Moved across the diamond Guillen's difference was negligible as he had produced at RZR of .667 in 143 innings. Out west the Seattle Mariners have the putrid Richie Sexson (.673 RZR) who is playing first as Jose Vidro mans the designated hitter role. Across the field from Sexson, Andre Beltre is having a substandard season as well (.651 RZR) already committing 8 errors in 386 innings however he has gloved 29 balls out of zone, by far the most by a third baseman.

Though the Twins have completed more anticipated plays than just the Tigers or Mariners, it is the unexpected ones that have been absent. As a unit, the Twins infield has managed only to track down 31 balls out of zone. Even Detroit (51 ooz) and Seattle (61) are outpacing the Twins. The 31 plays made out of zone is 33 less than the league leading Tampa Bay Rays and 20 less than the league average. Being able to track an additional 20-30 balls in plays would have eliminated 20 to 30 base-runners which of course lead to subsequent runs. Limiting opponents' presence on base also benefits the Twins pitching staff who have the highest home runs per game allowed (1.1) in the American League. As obvious as it is, multi-run home runs do more damage than solo home runs.


As bad as Guillen, Cabrera and Beltre have been, Lamb by far is the most inefficient at third. At the plate, Lamb has a .518 ops. Comparatively, Beltre (.760), Guillen (.790) and Cabrera (.824) are all carrying their weight at the plate. At the plate as he continues failing to live up to lofty offensive expectations, but on the field he exacerbates the problem. Lamb had 75 balls within his zone and has only been able to convert outs on 42 of them. Consider that the current Fielding Bible from Bill James Online has Lamb is currently ranked 32 of all starting third basemen. Based upon the Plus/Minus grading system, Lamb is graded as a -7 when making plays to his right (towards the foul line), +1 with balls straight on and -1 ranging to his left (towards short). This isn't exactly news as the Twins understood what they had purchased. MLB.com's Kelly Theiser wrote in January 2008 that "the questions concerning Lamb's range at third were enough to have some teams back off pursuing the veteran for a starting role this winter. Some teams, like the Rangers, weren't even looking at him for the position at all, but rather as an option for first base." There are several similar internal candidates that could replicate the same defense as Lamb such as Brian Buscher and Matt Macri (or at least provide more offense) but neither of those two candidates play exceptional defense.

Minnesota Twins' Mike Lamb reacts after striking out swinging with runners on first and third base on a pitch from Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Brian Fuentes to end the ninth inning of the Rockies' 3-2 victory in an interleague Major League Baseball game on Saturday, May 17, 2008, in Denver.

The contract offered to Adam Everett came with plenty of of unknowns. For starters, the Twins would have no idea how a 31-year-old shortstop would recover from a broken leg. Now Everett is experiencing shoulder problems diminishing his ability to throw across the diamond, which makes him particularly vulnerable during the double-play or ranging to his right (compensating for Lamb's lack of range). The Fielding Bible has indicated that Everett has had 20 opportunities to turn a double-play and has only done so in 10 of those occasions (.500, ranked 28th among shortstops). Ranging to his right, Everett has a -3 grading making the hole between third and short exposed when Lamb and Everett are on the field. The Twins, however, cannot go to the well to replace Adam Everett with a Jason Bartlett as they did to remove Juan Castro in 2006 - there isn't one there, at least one not major league ready (sorry, Alexi).

DENVER - MAY 18:  Shortstop Adam Everett #12 of the Minnesota Twins commits an error as he misses a pop fly by Willy Taveras the Colorado Rockies in the eighth inning during Interleague MLB action at Coors Field on May 18, 2008 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies defeated the Twins 6-2.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)

"I hope we don't have to deal with something like that again," Manager Ron Gardenhire said after Sunday's game against the Rockies. "Missing pop flies and failures to get runners in and executing, the whole package. A disappointing baseball game... Dropping throws to first base. I don't know how you prepare for all those things. We're not used to seeing those things. It's embarrassing for our organization and for our fans." Gardenhire had designs on relocating Brendan Harris to third and inserting Matt Tolbert at second thereby upgrading the defensive alignment. This, of course, was thrown out the window when Tolbert dislodged his left thumb from his hand so the Twins are forced to soldier on with their original plan.

This development, in spite of Gardy's quote, should not be a surprise to no one in this organization. During the onset of the season the idea was that Lamb and Harris were brought in to upgrade the lineup: high-quality defense would be conceded to adding runs at the plate. Everett was going to be the sure-handed glove to bridge third and second, that any offense that he would generate would be a bonus. With this game plan in mind the Twins entered 2008 hoping to score more runs than they defend. To date, this plan has yet to come to fruition.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Notebook Dump (5.17.08)

Game: Twinks 4, Rox 2

Box Score

Record: 21-20

Place: 2nd, 0.5 back

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* Nick Blackburn continues to show poise of a much more experienced pitcher, tossing seven innings at Coors and limiting the Rockies to six hits and two runs. Finishing with a Game Score of 63, Blackburn struck out five Rockies and did not allow anyone to reach on a walk. Blackburn also went 1-3 at the plate after slipping a chopper between third baseman Garrett Atkins and Clint Barmes.

* Delmon Young had his 13th multi-hit game of the season however this was the first time he has had a multi-extra base hit game all season after his two doubles. Going into the Colorado series, Young was batting .263/.309/.296. The 3-4 night lifted his numbers to .276/.319/.321. Over the last five games Young is 7-for-23, batting .304/.360/.391. Even without the power, it is hard to sit him. After committing a fatal base running gaff against Toronto when he rounded the base too hard only to be thrown out by Brad Wilkerson from mid-right field when catcher Greg Zaun trailed Young up the line. His overzealous basepath behavior ended up killing a potential rally. Friday Young made a wise decision, tagging up from second to third on a Mike Lamb flyball to the left-center gap. With Adam Everett up and Nick Blackburn in the hole with one-out Young had enough presence to realize that scoring from second would be difficult-to-impossible. Everett came into the game batting .190 and Blackburn just had his first at-bat since high school a few innings prior. When Everett lofted a deep flyball to left-fielder Ryan Spilborghs, Young trotted home resulting in the difference making run. "That was a good bit of baserunning," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He read it, got back, tagged up and got there."

* MEDIC! Matt Tolbert is the latest Twins causality with a torn ligament in his left thumb. Currently they have Tolbert on the 15-day DL but with that kind of trauma, it should be anticipated that Tolbert will miss more time then just the two weeks. As LaValle notes, the Twins system is depleted in middle infielders. Luke Hughes and Matt Macri are both recovering from injuries of their own while journeyman infielder Chris Basak isn't performing to snuff (.221/.309/.337 in 86 at-bats). Aside from reaching down to grab Hughes from New Britain, the Twins also had Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson hitting .290/.338/.427 and .302/.408/.519 respectively. Tolleson had a rough stretch where he was batting .139 after a 0-for-19 mid-April slump. Since then he has raised his average to .302 and was named Eastern League player of the week (May 11th). Instead of taking a gamble on the 22-year-old and 24-year-old raw energy prospects at double-A, the Twins opted for the 34-year-old Howie Clark who is batting .240/.303/.354 while playing 26 games at second base. Clark is a career .282/.356/.402 minor league hitter and in 335 major league plate appearances, Clark has hit .262/.331/.354 with Toronto and Baltimore.

* Because the Twins recalled Alexi Casilla to replace the injured Nick Punto as the spare utility part, Rochester was so thin that the Twins picked up the 24-year-old Sergio Santos from the Toronto Blue Jays. Santos has spent his minor league career split between the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays organization. Santos played the majority of the 2008 season at triple-A Syracuse logging 224 innings at third base committing 5 errors (.906 fielding percentage) in that duration. Last year while with the double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats, Santos hit 20 home runs in 479 at-bats and slugged .477. A career .249/.307/.396 minor league hitter, the logic behind acquiring Santos is strictly a roster-filler.

* Livan Hernandez, 2nd in the American League with 9 home runs surrendered, will have to work hard to keep the ball in the park at Coors. Over his career, Hernandez has tossed 74.1 innings and give up 11 home runs and has a 6.78 era there. Looking to continue providing the Twins with wins so long as the offense continues to provide it (6.63 runs per game), and Hernandez might be able to assist in that department. He is one of the few Twins pitchers that is novice with a bat. In 887 career plate appearances, Hernandez has hit 9 home runs with 73 rbis and maintains a career .232/.241/.314 batting line.

* Twins face the touted Gregory Reynolds, the Rockies 1st round draft pick in 2006. Armed with a 90.7 mph fastball and a 78 mph curve (a 12 mph difference) the 6'7", 220-lb Reynolds made a rapid climb from high-A ball in 2006 to triple-A to begin this season to being called up to the big club. Reynolds has only logged 133 innings in the minors carrying a 2.98 era and 1.20 whip. His peripheral numbers are not overwhelming as indicated by a 14.6% strike out rate but he throws strikes as highlighted by his low 5.8% walk rate.