Fall League Update #1

Twins prospects through 15 games of the AZL season for the Phoenix Desert Dogs:

Hitters

Player	Games	At-Bats	HR	K	BB	AVG.	OBP	SLG.	OPS
Matt Macri	15	50	2	10	2	.320	.346	.540	.886
Trevor Plouffe	10	27	0	11	4	.270	.341	.378	.720
Drew Butera	6	15	0	2	1	.200	.250	.267	.517

Pitchers

Player	Game	Innings	ER	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
Anthony Swarzak	4	10.0	2	6	3	1.80	1.20
Nick Blackburn	3	9.0	3	8	2	3.00	0.89
Eduardo Morlan	6	7.1	0	2	4	0.00	1.36

Twins prospects through 12 games of the Venezuelan season for the Tigres de Aragua:

Hitters

Player	Games	At-Bats	HR	K	BB	AVG.	OBP	SLG.	OPS
Brian Buscher	11	40	1	5	6	.275	.370	.400	.770

Pitchers

Player	Game	Innings	ER	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
Yohan Pino	5	7.1	3	4	2	3.68	1.23
Bobby Korecky	3	4.0	0	2	2	0.00	1.00
Jose Mijares	9	4.0	2	5	0	4.50	1.25

The Case For Kevin Mench

While reviewing the 2007 season’s numbers and trying to draw a conclusion on what went wrong, as I am wont to do after the season ends, a fan can clearly identify the problem spots and conjure up numerous solutions. The local media has blamed a multitude of problems such as a downgrade of performance from the previous season (Punto), key injuries (Reyes, Crain, Mauer) or under performance (White). One glaring deficiency that plague the 2007 season was the inability to hit left-handed pitching. Outside of the anemic (but powerful) Chicago White Sox line up, Minnesota had the worst offensive production against left-handers in the Central.

Vs, Lefties	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	Runs	Production %*
Minnesota	1614	28	.263	.326	.385	.711	191	11.63%
Chicago	1476	58	.242	.321	.410	.731	181	12.26%
Detroit	1349	44	.292	.352	.477	.828	220	16.30%
Cleveland	1641	59	.274	.357	.441	.797	242	14.74%
Kansas City	1546	32	.266	.330	.400	.730	210	13.58%

* Runs/At Bats.

The problem for 2008 is the possible loss of Torii Hunter who was one of the few in the lineup that had a successful split against left-handed pitching.

Hunter	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	HR%	K%
2007	168	10	.310	.352	.548	.900	5.9%	14.3%
2004-2006	423	22	.286	.345	.515	.860	5.2%	19.3%

Reports suggest that Hunter is requesting a 5-year, $75 million a year contract and judging from his 2007 numbers vs. left-handed pitching, he is likely to command that salary on an open market (but not to overlook his ability to hit right-handed pitching and gold glove defense). It seems apparent that the organization lacks viable in-house candidates to replace the loss of production. A franchise on a tight budget that needs to increase production against left-handed pitching (at a fraction of the total cost it would take to retain other free agents) might look into acquiring Kevin Mench.

According to a recent Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article (“2007 Review: The Brewers jumped off to a great start in 2007 but in the end, their season came tumbling down” October 2^nd, 2007), the Brewers are rumored to be considering releasing Mench due to their overstocked outfield of prospects. Past rumors indicate that the Twins had interest in Mench while as a Ranger and at the trade deadline last year while with Milwaukee.

Mench’s numbers in 2007 are indicative of a bat that has power and can hit for average against lefties. What’s more is that his number prior to 2007 (2004 – 2006) indicate that Mench is consistent as well:

Mench	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	HR%	K%
2007	155	8	.316	.345	.561	.906	5.16%	6.5%
2004-2006	388	23	.307	.379	.590	.969	5.92%	6.1%

While a pessimist might suggest that Hunter’s 2007 numbers are an anomaly compared to the prior three seasons thereby taking that into consideration when approaching long-term contract negotiations, Mench’s 2007 numbers are slightly below what he has previously recorded between 2004 and 2006 (which would also seem to be good leverage in contract negotiations). In fact the numbers indicate that any organization would be hard pressed to find anyone in the past four seasons that has had as much success as Mench has had versus lefties and could be obtained below “market value”. (With the exception of Jonny Gomes who might be acquired from the Devil Rays for a prospect but is prone to striking out highlighted by his 30.3% strikeout percentage). Highlighted by a high home run percentage (hitting a home run in 5.16% of his at-bats in 2007 against lefties) but also by the ability to not strike out, the remarkable thing is that Mench is a power-hitter that has a solid contact rate. While Hunter struck out in 24 of his 165 at-bats against lefties in 2007, Mench was fooled in only 10 in 155.

Compared to other right-handed power-hitters that will be available either by free agency or a potential trade target, Mench also stands out as someone who hit for power, average, contact, and will most likely commanded the least amount of salary and has a history of avoiding the DL.

2004-2006	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	HR%	K%
Sweeney	306	12	.255	.330	.441	.771	3.9%	13.3%
Piazza	285	12	.309	.382	.502	.884	4.2%	15.0%
Gomes	211	13	.284	.406	.540	.946	6.1%	30.8%

It goes without saying that Mench’s bat does not replace the gold-glove caliber defense that Torii can bring to an outfield or his ticket sales significance as a fan favorite. Signing/acquiring Mench would still require either a stop-gap centerfielder free agent (see: Lofton, Patterson, Erstad) or a costly tier one centerfielder (see: Cameron and Rowand) to replace Hunter. However, even if Hunter is retained (against all odds), as a powerful right-handed bat that could possibly be signed for the price of a Rondell White ($3 to $5 million) Mench would certainly be a useful weapon in the arsenal for Gardenhire to pencil in as a DH, a platoon partner with Jason Kubel in left field or a late-inning pitch-hitter against the league’s formidable left-handers (see: Sabathia, Lee, Jenks, Danks, Buerhle).

To say that the Twins don't participate in Baseball's Winter Meetings is a vast understatement. It is common knowledge at this point. Twins never make any significant free agent signings at the Winter Meetings. Water is wet. E=MC2. Twins won't sign big name sluggers or pitchers. Period. End of story. Year in and year out, the Twins fans are subjected to hot stove headlines that contain the non-steroid user names like Juan Castro and Jeff Cirillo. To be honest, for ages I was bothered by that. I wanted to experience the exhilaration that only fans in Chicago, New York, Boston or Los Angeles feel when the open their paper and shout "Yes! Yes! We got him! We finally got him! We got Zito!" It just doesn't have the same oomph with the name Cirillo. Seriously. Try it. Next to the Cirillo signing, the biggest signing for the Twins had been a Minor League contract to Ken Harvey who may or may not have been panhandling on a freeway off-ramp when Terry Ryan spotted him (and the contract may or may not have been for a fresh shave and a hot meal). For the record, Twins fans should take comfort knowing that his only chance of seeing Major League time is if an elevator carrying our 40-man roster snaps and plummets 40 storys. Meche. Bonds. Thomas. Piazza. These are all names bantered about. None would have made sense for the Twins. Think about it. Aside from left field (I would personally have Rondell White back) and a designated hitter (I'm not terrible with Jason Kubel), could you honestly say you would displace any member of the starting lineup for any member of this free agent class? The murmur from the mostly dormant offseason Twins fans was at a hush, the only vocal ones made snide, but poignant, barbs about how the term "All-Star" and "Ken Harvey" were being thrown around all too loosely. Some ripped Terry Ryan for not chasing a free agent market gone wild. But here's the thing that all Twins fans should be thankful for: We're lucky to have such an even-keeled General Manager. Consider the alternatives. General Managers with an open checkbook in the off-season is like Stallone running through the Vietnamese jungles with a high-powered machine gun Rambo-style. He can do real damage, real fast. Take Chicago Cubs Gm Jim Hendry who has Alfonso Soriano signed until most of the world's uranium supply decomposes. Essentially all that will be left after a nuclear fallout will be cockroaches and Soriano playing the outfield for the Cubs. If that wasn't foolhardy enough, he then enlisted left-handed Ted Lilly to ensure that all the fans on Waveland Avenue had recieved enough souviners from the opposing team's right handed bats. Look at Pat Gillick, the Philadelphia Phillies GM. Assessing this offseason talent pool Gillick made an accurate analysis saying, "The group that's out there as free agents, it isn't the most attractive group." Gillick then signed Adam Eaton. Gillick convinced himself (or worse yet, the "market" convinced him) that his team had a need that could only be filled by earmarking $24.5 million of the Phillies money for the next three years. For a pitcher that has yet to throw 200 innings in a season. That's like walking into a bar, declaring there is nothing but deranged-looking women and then proceeding to down several Jack and Cokes until -- eh, what the hell -- one of them seems remotely attractive. The next morning are you really going to feel good about what you did? Do you think Pat Gillick could look at himself in the mirror? The Twins are the baseball equivalent to Costa Rica, we stay out of the Free Agent Wars. We are a better people for it too. Sure Twins fans can't log on to ESPN.com and read the latest rumor about the Twins pursuing Zito and sure no one will ever blurt out the words "Terry Ryan has signed Soriano to a 10-year/$130 million deal" but the bottomline is that Terry Ryan has created an unquestionable template for winning. If you need further proof: for the cost of a Ted Lilly, we have a two-time Cy Young Award winner in Johan Santana (4-years/$40 million)? Ryan's got a plan. Trust him.

Hello Cirillo.

Have you ever had that friend that had a particular "type" of girl that he dated? All the women in his life shared a similar defining characteristic of a certain celebrity that he is obsessed with -- say Jennifer Garner -- then subsequently dates various women that looked vaguely like Garner in some low-grade way (brown hair, knobby-kneed, named Jen, etc). Once you heard that he was dating someone, you instantly had a mental image of what they looked like. This friend is so transparent with his love-life, that when you see a girl at a bar that shares those same qualities, you instinctively know that your buddy is going to comment on her long before he before he does. What is known is that the friend of yours would never in a million lifetimes end up with Jennifer Garner, for several glaring reasons such as 1) he spends too much of his time at a peanut bar called Williams in Uptown Minneapolis where Jennifer Garner rarely shows up, 2) it's doubtful if she is into dudes that play Golden Tee in Prior Lake and 3) she already in a committed relationship to one Ben Afflack. So he is going to find the next best thing on the market that resembles Garner and will also sleep with him. That's sort of how the Twins operate. That is what is transpiring when you read the paper and find out the Twins signed Jeff Cirillo on Tuesday. They become infatuated with a certain type of player's tools. Most of the time, there are obvious reasons to why a premium player won't come to Minnesota such as 1) too high of an asking price, 2) they prefer to play on "the coast" or 3) in a committed relationship to one Scott Boras. So the Twins seek out the next closest (and cheapest) player. One such example of this was the Dmitri Young Years. Over the past few seasons, the Twins were rumored to be seeking potential deals to bring Dmitri Young to the organization. The Twins front office coveted his switch-hitting power in 2002 and 2003. Bert Blyleven reminded us every time the Twins were playing the Tigers that the Twins "loved how Young just drops the head of the bat". In the 2003 season he put up semi-monster power numbers considering he was playing in Comerica prior to the walls being moved forward (29 HRs 84 RBIs, .297/.372/.537 (.909 OPS)) and was elected to the All-Star team. All drug addictions aside, the Twins were fortunate not to have made this deal. At 32 years old, Young is averaging 21 HRs 82 RBIs, .289/.346/.476 (.822 OPS) per season and limited to first base and DH. The problem was that he was a little out of the Twins' league at the time. He had a 4 year/$28.5 million dollar contract. In 2002 he signed a deal with the Tigers that would allot him $5.5 in that year, 2003 he would receive $6.7 million, $7.7 million in 2004 and $8.0 in both 2005 and 2006. These were figures that the Twins were reserving for Torii Hunter who would be commanding a 4-year/$32 million deal. Meanwhile the Twins in the 2005 offseason signed Rondell White to an incentive-laden contract that was worth $2.5 million for the year with trigger options for 2007. Despite not being a switch hitter, White shared many traits with Young. Both had bursts of power, both have a low walk/high strikeout rate and both could play DH and the corner outfield if asked. Rondell's career average offensive numbers (22 HRs 94 RBIs, .286/.339/.465 (.805 OPS)) are very similar to DY's. Even in this past season when both players missed a significant amount of time, they seemed to replicate stats: DY 172 ABs 7 HRs 23 RBIs .250/.293/.407 (.700 OPS) RW 337 ABs 7 HRs 38 RBIs .246/.276/.365 (.641 OPS) For all intents and purposes, White was every bit as good (or bad depending on the season) as Young. The difference was White was a more frugal signing for the same kind of output with less off-field problems. That's what the Twins do. They find the characteristics that they value in a player then see if they can obtain it for a bargain. White was a gamble who didn't necessarily pay dividends. I would rather pay $2.5 million for those stats as opposed to $8.0 million. Similar to Dmitri, baseball insiders have said the Twins have had a long-standing man-crush on Joe Randa (aka the Joker). Randa has spent most of his career playing against the Twins in the AL Central for the Kansas City Royals and putting up respectable, workman-like offensive numbers and showing a solid glove at third base. In 2005 Randa split a one-year/$2.1 million contract with Cincinnati and San Diego. His offensive season (17 HRs, 68 RBIs .276/.335/.452 (.787 OPS)) was good enough to earn him a raise from Pittsburgh (1-year/$4.0 million) in which is output dropped off after injuries and the emergence of doubles-machine Freddy Sanchez. Randa has since announced his retirement this offseason due to the stress fracture in his foot. So once again, the person that the Twins desire is not available. The Twins went searching for the next best thing. The boys at Baseball-reference.com proclaimed Jeff Cirillo to be the most similar batter to Joe Randa. Consider their career offensive averages, keep in mind that Cirillo spent two seasons at Coors, but otherwise they are almost interchangeable: JR 13 HRs 79 RBIs .284/.339/.426 (.765 OPS) JC 12 HRs 74 RBIs .298/.368/.432 (.800 OPS) And in the past season where both had limited playing time (Cirillo because he was cast to the bench and Randa because he had a nagging foot injury) they nearly duplicated numbers: JR 4 HRs 28 RBIs .267/.316/.388 (.714 OPS) JC 3 HRs 23 RBIs .319/.369/.414 (.783 OPS) Even after digesting all those numbers, here is the most crucial one: JR $4 million JC $850,000 The Twins have signed Cirillo for a 1-year/$1.25 million dollar contract to play a limited role this season. Cirillo should be durable enough to adequately back up/platoon at third with Punto, even if he puts up the exact same numbers as his previous season with the Brewers he would still be worth it.

Hope Springs Eternal

"Love. She's a motherfucker." waiter, Old School At the moment, I'm try to decide why, exactly, are the Twins are "Hopeful" to keep Lew Ford? At this point in the offseason which has turned into a Roman orgy of money for most General Managers, the Minnesota Twins would be damn lucky retain a Lew Ford. Obviously the hope that Lew stays in Minnesota is not inspired by his steady decline over the two previous season, dropping offensively from a solid .827 OPS to a respectable .715 to a mortal .599 this past season. The hope would be that he can somehow reclaim that 2004 swing. His price tag, if offered arbitration by the Twins, should qualify him for a raise from $425,000 to $850,000 for next year and considering the astronomical increase for the cost of moderate outfielders, the Twins might be getting a bargain. Consider Gary Matthews Jr. who received what many would call a farce of a contract from the Angels this past offseason. After a "breakout" season at the age of 31, Gary cashed in for 5-years/$50 million. Here is the stat line that buys you $50 million dollar contracts: 31 - 19 HRs 79 RBIs .313/.371/.495 (.866 OPS) After Lew Ford's "breakout" campaign of 2004 when his was a youthful 27 Lew produced these numbers: 27 - 15 HRs 72 RBIs .299/.381/.446 (.827 OPS) For a season, it appeared that the Twins had once again pillaged another team's farm system. Of course we already know that Lew Ford regressed back down to earth. Lew started being Lew again. Had Lew compiled those numbers this past season, Lew might have found himself being a valued commodity. Instead, he's waiting next to his phone to hear (hopefully) an offer from the Minnesota Twins for, perhaps, less than a million dollars for one season. Baseball's time-line has a funny way of messing with its players. Almost Shakespearean. For instance Cool Papa Bell was labeled by Bill Veeck as one of the greatest players he had ever seen, drawing comparisons to Honus Wagner, even though most agreed that that was a unfair comparison. Cool Papa was much superior because he was in his 40s when Veeck saw him play. Because he was born before Jackie Robinson and was long past his prime when the color barrier was broke, he never was able to obtain the dividends that the Major Leaguers were entitled to. Cool Papa grew old in the slums of North St. Louis and spent many nights as a 72 year old with a shotgun on his lap because of the crime and grit of the neighborhood. He died penniless. Had he been born 15 years later, he might have played along side Robinson, Aaron and others. Naturally this story is heavy in contrast to the Matthews/Ford debate. I'm not suggesting that Lew Ford is Cool Papa either (although that nomenclature would fit Lew). Look again at the offensive numbers of Matthews and Ford. Lew Ford will be playing next season with the constant dread in the back of his mind that he might be sent on a one-way flight to Rochester or worse, Kansas City. Matthews might be seen next on Cribz or the OC. Some reap the rewards; others become Lew Ford and Cool Papa. Timing in this game is everything. Baseball. She's a motherfucker.