Over The Baggy: 12/01/2009

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Adieu 2009

For regular readers, you’ll notice that I rarely take the time to wax poetic about my personal life within the confines of this blog. My focus is on baseball analysis so baseball analysis is what you get. People don’t go into Applebee’s expecting to be propositioned for sex. In fact, the majority of decent Americans would be put off by a scenario in which quest for a Fiesta Lime Chicken was interrupted by a lady or gentleman of the night. For the most part, I’ll keep this about happenings on the diamond and leave my first person perspective out of this. However, seeing as this is the year-end blog post, I thought I’d take a moment to thank everyone for coming by for a visit.

Another calendar year is almost in the books and the OtB site is still going fairly strong. In fact, this post represents the 290^th one produced since the inception. I can say that I did not anticipate this side-project sustaining for as long as it has when I first picked it back up in 2007 after an initial failure-to-launch in 2006. The title of the blog alone should indicate that I was not thinking long-term which a new stadium was being erected just west of the downtown area.

That brings up a question I get on a semi-regular basis: Will the site still be Over the Baggy in 2010? At this juncture, I’m not sure. I like the name and I’ve mocked up a new logo/banner to adorn the top of the page that should start to distance the name from the Metrodome (it is from an old Metropolitan Stadium postcard actually) but I may wind up caving and reinventing the brand altogether.

I would like to take the opportunity to thank all of the readers that have stopped by on frequent or infrequent basis. I hope you derive as much enjoyment out of reading these postings as I have researching and creating them. I want to thank all of those that have supported the TwinsCentric projects – we (John, Nick, Seth and I) try to provide you with entertaining and thought-provoking material. For those that have not taken the opportunity to do so, please download the free sample of our latest offering to enjoy the remainder of this offseason.

As always, you can share your feelings or input with me via email (TwinsFanc1981 [AT] Gmail.com) or follow me on Twitter (@OverTheBaggy) for more Over the Baggy-goodness. I leave you and the year 2009 with a handful of items that should provide ample evidence that, on occasion, I know what the hell I am talking about and not just spewing nonsense. Enjoy and see you next year!

Nick Swisher’s 2009 rebound season. When the White Sox flipped him to New York, the Chicago front office cited his lowly .219 batting average in 2008 as an excuse for why he needed to go. What I saw was a guy that was stroking line drives (20 percent rate) and relatively consistent peripherals in conjunction with his career but had a suppressive batting average on balls put in play (.251 BABIP versus a .300 league average). My exact prediction was to “[e]xpect that Swisher's 2009 season resembles 2007 rather than his 2008 numbers.” His .249 batting average notwithstanding, Swisher compiled a 2009 season that excelled past his 2007 – putting up a .375 wOBA in ’09 versus his .361 wOBA in his final year in Oakland.
Paul Konerko’s turnaround. In February I wrote that “Konerko is a very likely candidate to have a rebound season. Last year, while battling a[n] early season hand-injury, Konerko had his worst season since 2003, hitting .240/.344/.438 with 22 home runs in 514 at-bats. Konerko's numbers were thwarted by bad luck thanks to a suppressed .247 batting average on balls in play even as he hit line drives 21.5% of the time. His average on those line drives in play was .583, well below the MLB average of .718. If he continues to swing like he did in 2008, his numbers should revert back towards his career line of .277/.352/.491.” This past season, the White Sox first baseman continued to hit line drives consistently (18.5%) but saw more of his line drives finding vacant areas of turf, resulting in a .768 batting average on those types of hits. Konerko finished the year hitting .277/.353/.489 – coming within fractions of producing his then-career line.
Ty Wigginton’s 2009 decline. Wigginton’s name was used a lot after the ’08 season as a free agent candidate. Undoubtedly, his .285/.350/.526 averages with 23 home runs certainly looked appealing when you remove the .343/.390/.691 average and 15 home runs at the bandbox of Minute Maid Park, you could foresee a drastic drop in production when removed from his hitter’s haven. The Orioles – sigh, always the Orioles – signed him to a relatively light two-year, $6M contract but allowed the situational-at-best player to accumulate 100 starts and watched as his numbers plummeted back to earth, finishing ’09 with a .273/.314/.400 line with 11 home runs. Context means everything.
That whole “Hinske would have been much better than signing Kubel” ballyhoo thing. Citing stats from Dave Cameron’s Fangraph.com where he first questioned the Twins for extending Kubel, Hinske had a fairly good season and provided yeoman-like work for a one-year, $1.5M contact, producing a .344 wOBA in 190 plate appearances split between Pittsburgh and the Yankees. At 31-years-old, the likelihood that Hinske could or would replicate his ’08 season was a gamble. Into his 30s, one expects signs of decline. Meanwhile, Kubel’s meteoric rise in 2009 was not just a thing of beauty, procuring a .383 wOBA as an everyday designated hitter, but as a player moving into his prime playing years he stood a better-than-average chance that he would not only meet his ’08 numbers, he would exceed them. In the end, Hinske’s season was worth about 0.8 WAR (wins above replacement) while Kubel’s provided the Twins with 2.9 WAR.
Accurately predicted Albert Pujols’ MVP (gimmee) and was close on Mark Teixeira (if it weren’t for a meddling catcher named Mauer). Admittedly, Pujols was not a risky selection, and neither is Teixeira, but I do like to point out that I nearly hit Teixeira’s home run total on the nose: “Considering it will be 318 to those right field seats at the new Yankee Stadium, Teixeira has the capabilities to hand out some souvenirs to some very happy Bronx visitors, maybe reaching the 40-home run plateau.” Teixeira finished the season with 39 home runs of which, 24 were hit at the new Yankee Stadium.
Zack Grienke’s breakout. In April I said “It’s hard to classify a guy who went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA not already “out” but Greinke will take further steps forward to prove that he is among the top pitchers in the game today. With David Dejesus and Coco Crisp both in the outfield and a stronger offensive lineup, Greinke’s will witness his winning percentage rise in 2009.” Okay, it wasn’t that I expected this level of dominance but reviewing his pitch data prior to the 2009 season I felt that Grienke would piece it together. He did. (In full disclosure, my selection for the NL’s breakout player of the year in the same article was JJ Hardy. Whoopsie-doodle.)
Identifying opposing pitchers’ obsession with throwing Joe Mauer fastballs (and his subsequent destruction of said pitches). I outlined this diddy back in early June and at the time I noticed that Mauer’s fastball distribution of 67% was closer to the amount slap-hitting infielders like Placido Polanco and Luis Castillo received while power hitters like Albert Pujols and Kevin Youkilis were seeing fastballs only 55% of the time. At the end of the season, Fangraphs.com’s Dave Allen came to the same conclusion in a very similarly titled article in October. Could 2010 come with more breaking balls?
Detailing the Carl Pavano acquisition. There was plenty of backlash among the fan base suggesting that the Twins cheapskated their way past the trade deadline, grabbing a pitcher with a 5.37 ERA. Rebuffing this sentiment, I pointed to xFIP (among other stats) to present the case that Pavano is actually a better pitcher than perceived: “For teams that evaluates players with advanced statistics (Boston, Tampa and Seattle come to mind), it would be hard to ignore that his xFIP of 4.16 – a stat that normalizes the home run rate along with the infusion of strikeout and walk rates – which was TENTH best in the AL among qualified starters. Better than Sabathia. Better than Buerhle, Shields, Washburn, Burnett. Et cetera. Et Cetera. He was pitching better than all of those staff aces. One xFIP point worse than Lee – one point! – and it took the Phillies four of their top ten prospects to nab Lee from the Indians.” Pavano was better than advertised and instead of shipping a stockpile of prospects to the Indians for 12 starts as the Phillies did for Lee, the Twins traded one decent prospect for a pitcher that produced identical peripheral numbers.
A video scouting breakdown of Deolis Guerra’s improved mechanics. Through the use of youtube.com loaded videos (and several hours of staring at the computer monitor), I highlighted the physical changes the Twins prospect had made in his motion which correlated with his newfound success. In brief, Guerra was curling too much in his upper-half in 2008 which inevitably led to his control issues. I really enjoyed this feature and as new videos become available and I get better as using the GIMP program that isolates those clips, I will hopefully be adding more scouting breakdowns to OtB in 2010.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The Evolution of Delmon Young

On July 31, Delmon Young was hitting a heart-stoppingly bad .264/.291/.346 in 220 plate appearances. Up to that point, the left fielder had managed to hit just three home runs and adding on seven more extra base hits while striking out in 28.1 percent of the time. In 24 team games in July, Ron Gardenhire wrote his name on the lineup card just eight times, essentially donning a scarlet “4” announcing himself as the team’s extra outfielder.

It was only logically that Young would be shelved. At that point in time, everything about the 24-year-old seemed broken. Not including his terrible defense, Young’s offensive contributions were just horrible in every sense of the word. He was the baseball equivalent of a Creed album – all-around garbage. Aside from his 62-to-7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio which provided evidence he was still unfamiliar with the strike zone, his hits came in the form of seeing-eye singles that scooted between infielders. He was pulling 50 percent of balls in play onto the left-side of the field but with little authority, knocking an obscenely 80 percent of those into the ground.

Was the 6-foot-3 corner outfielder really hitting like a diminutive utility infielder? Did the Twins really inherit a slap-hitting, scorched-earth producing former number one overall draft pick incapable of providing power? It was like buying a sports car only to find out it handled like a minivan.

However, as the calendar flipped to August, something started to click. Slowly, Young had his playing time increased and was given a full-time opportunity again when Justin Morneau went out for the season with his back injury.

From the first of that month to the conclusion of the season, Young was a different hitter in the batter’s box. No, the plate discipline did not improve - he still couldn’t buy a walk in Chinatown – but suddenly the ball left his bat with a bit more zest. It no longer trickled off of the lumber towards third base all yippy-skippy. It charged off the grain on a mission. He slugged over .700 when pulling the ball after hitting a ho-hum .444 on pitches he yanked prior to that. In his final 192 plate appearances, Young launched nine home runs (swatting 20 more extra base hits) while hitting .305/.327/.513.

After less than half of his balls in play were airborne (fly ball and line drive combined), he elevated 66 percent of balls in play post-August. This was a good thing for a power hitter. After all, balls that hit the turf have the damnedest time resulting in a home run.

Unfortunately, the season came to a halt as it is wont to do in the winter, keeping us from finding out how sustainable Young’s performance was. With almost zero abilities to get on base besides anything other than a hit, Young’s future performance will always be questioned. Furthermore, a level of skepticism will remain regarding his second-half output based up his nearly identical second-half output from 2008. Late last season Young hit .285/.337/.425 with six home runs in 206 plate appearances re-energizing his supporters that the best is yet to come…only to follow that up with a let-down in the first-half of ’09.

This past October, LaVelle E Neal and Phil Mackey discussed on KFAN the impending off-season for the Twins. Mackey shook off Young’s output as a “mirage”, stating that the aforementioned lack of plate discipline will eventually be the equalizer for him. LaValle, on the other hand, mentioned that the Twins were impressed by the way Delmon had gotten rid of his "giant leg kick".

A bit of video research shows that, indeed, Young had muted his leg kick as the season progressed:

(source: twinsbaseball.com)

From left to right are clips from 2008, May 2009 and then October 2009. Young has long been known as someone who has troubles accepting guidance. The Twins have tried to get him to make adjustments but he has been credited as resistant to implementing them. Here, in a 12-month span, you can see how radical Young’s changes have been.

In the first clip from a year ago, he’s a chaotic mess. His timing, hands, leg kick, everything, is out of whack. The first thing that jumps out is his pre-swing movement. His stride shifts all of his lower weight towards third base well in advance of his upper body. Because his lower-half is committed first, his top-half was forced to play catch-up. On top of that, his hands drop almost to letter-high which retards the swings’ progress even more. This means he was hitting with mostly arms – damning evidence why he was pounding more balls into the grass and winding up hitting to the opposite field as much as he did.

The second clip, from May of this year, shows a much different Delmon Young. His stance is straight-forward and his hands are dropped to shoulder height. From the point he lifts his front foot, there is less shifting. The stance gives him a balance while the bat keeps him from dropping his hands down when loading for the swing. Young is also keeping his hands closer to his body in this swing – keeping inside the baseball. While he’s advancing he’s not put together the entire package: he’s got a hitch in his stride that throws everything out of whack.

The final clip is the one from his hot streak. Everything is fluid. Besides that, notice where his hands are with the bat – up almost above his head. His front elbow is now more perpendicular to the ground whereas in the previous two clips, he was pointing the elbow downward.

This biggest difference, as LaVelle noted, is the leg kick. Here is an isolation of the three:

(source: twinsbaseball.com)

Carefully examine Young's front leg and the ensuing strides. Notice how more balance and smooth his motion is on the right as opposed to the Elaine Benes-type dance move on the left.

In the frame on the far left (2008), Young's open-stance is reminiscent of that of Frank Thomas. His front foot is almost behind his body with a deep bend. Last season, Young struggled mightily to elevate the ball - hitting just 44.9 percent of his total balls in play in the air. Part of the reason is because of his elongated stride towards the ball. After lifting his leg, his first movement is towards the right side of the field and then it loops back towards the pitcher before he plants on the left side of the field. This circular motion is wasted energy that actually zaps power from the lower extremities as he pulled open long before contact.

In the middle clip (May 2009), Young has altered his stance to a more balanced alignment with a whisper of an open stance. Although this is progress, getting his hips to stay closed for a fraction of a second longer, he's added a bit of a hitch as he turns his knee inwards (back at the catcher) before twisting it back at the field. It may seem like a minor flaw, it does slow the entire process down enough to where the kinetic chain does not generate the same power.

The clip on the far right (October 2009) Young has adopted a slightly closed stance but is essentially balanced similar to his approach in May. Unlike the two predecessors, Young simply picks up the front foot, shifting towards the mound and then rotates the hips through the hitting zone almost simultaneously with his hands.

****

There is no question that Young was driving the ball better in the season's final three months and it is attributed to him making much needed, albeit delayed, adjustments. The concern now is if he can maintain this approach throughout a long off-season without slipping into swings from the past that feel more comfortable. Considering that making solid contact is his only source of value, this makes him a fairly one dimensional offensive threat. In addition to carrying over his new-found mechanics into 2010, Young needs to tone down his overzealous plate approach and remember to take a few pitches. Last season, his 59.3 percent swing rate was the third-highest among those with a minimum of 380 plate appearances. His 2.9 percent walk rate was the fourth-lowest among the same total. Decreasing the former and increasing the latter will ensure sustained production from the left fielder.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Could the Twins actually be serious about Aroldis Chapman?

This past Tuesday, the Twins sent representation down to Houston to observe Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban defector with 100-mph touching-fastball, showcasing his skills in a bullpen session in front of 15 teams.

By most accounts, Chapman’s stuff was legit. According to ESPN.com’s Jorge Arangure (subscription re’q) the 21-year-old was in the 92-94-mph range with his fastball although he touched 97-mph in what described as “effortless” and had added muscle to his otherwise lanky frame (he’s listed as 6’ 4”, 185-pounds) while having tightened his mechanics.

His velocity from the left-side is significant. During the World Baseball Classic, Chapman was averaging 96-mph with his fastball but was able to deliver several pitches near the 100-mph milestone (one topped out at 102-mph). If he were able to maintain this consistency throughout a season, his 96-mph mark would not only put him as one of the league’s hardest throwers, but one of the rare left-handed hurlers that breaks 94-mph - only CC Sabathia throws that hard regularly.

Of course, velocity does not equal success. Just ask Daniel Cabrera. In his 6.1 innings in the WBC, Chapman struck out 8 but added four runners through walks. In November, Alex Eisenberg at Baseball-Intellect.com analyzed his mechanics and noted that “Chapman has to coordinate a lot of moving parts” which often translates into control issues when a few of those parts jump off track. That’s why the latter part of Arangure’s report regarding the tightening of his mechanics is important. If he has indeed taken measures to improve his mechanical flaws, Chapman may have shaved development time off and closed the gap to when he will be considered major league-ready.

At the same time, the session was not that encompassing where conclusions on his talent could be drawn. John Stockstill, the Orioles’ director of international scouting, said that “It was not really set up for evaluations. They wanted to let everybody see that he's healthy. He threw a light bullpen. Now they're setting things up so every club has an opportunity to meet with him starting today and going for the next two or three days."

To be sure, the level of aggression the Twins are pursuing Chapman is still unknown. Joe Christensen tweeted yesterday that former Twin Tony Oliva had “raved” about Chapman. Christensen said that Oliva’s brother is a coach in the top professional league in Cuba and had been feeding Oliva the scouting reports. With Oliva still very much active in the Twins (enough so that he gets stuck in the Metrodome’s executive washrooms), it is assumed that he is attempting to influence the scouting staff that Chapman is worth the investment.

In addition to Oliva’s persuasion, the Twins have been attacking the international market this past year with tenacity. Miguel Sano, viewed as one if not the top international prospect last summer, was acquired when most analysts discounted the Twins as potential suitors. This was a well-orchestrated acquisition ten years in the making. This past fall, general manager Bill Smith sat down with TwinsCentric and said in an interview which you can find in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook (now $7.95 for a PDF) that “[W]e have tried to become more aggressive internationally. It has been a ten-year initiative. There’s a lot you have to build up. You have to build up your staff. You have to get your staff ready to be making evaluations. We have worked very hard to get more aggressive internationally.”

Naturally, when asked if this required more money, something the Twins have valued above all in the past, Smith answered “If we can find them cheap, we’ll find them cheap, but we want to get good players on the international market.”

Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein tweeted on Wednesday that one executive told him that Chapman is looking at potentially a $30 million dollar contract while the Peter Abraham at the Boston Globe speculated that it would take $15 million (roughly what the Red Sox had offered) to secure Chapman’s services. Depending on the length of contract, this might not be an unreasonable amount of money to spend. Considering the amount it takes to sign a free agent that is has exited his peak age years (post-30), signing a phenom who is still several years away from his prime years is a good business decision for a budget-conscious organization. Investing in Chapman for the Twins, makes sense from both a talent acquisition standpoint and a financial position. If the evaluators believe Chapman can be a number one starter, his addition to a 2010 or 2011 rotation gives Minnesota a top, young pitcher that could be better than any of the aging arms that would appear on the free market – in spite of what is perceived as a high cost.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Around the Central (12.16.09)

News and notes from the Twins interdivision rivals:

Chicago White Sox

Looking to secure a lead off hitter and center fielder, the White Sox traded two pitching prospects, John Ely (AA) and Jon Link (AAA), to the Los Angeles Dodgers for the 32-year-old Juan Pierre. The White Sox had troubles finding adequate defensive help in center in 2009, using equal parts Brian Anderson and journeyman Scott Podsednik until Alex Rios was acquired at the waiver deadline. Pierre gives Ozzie Guillen an everyday-type that is probably better utilized as a defensive replacement/fourth outfielder.

ANALYSIS: This trade signals the end of the Scotty era on the South Side. Podsednik gave Chicago decent production on top of the lineup, hitting a career best .304/.353/.412 in 132 games. After the season the 34-year-old veteran free agent was seeking a multi-year contract, one that the White Sox balked at giving him. Considering his offensive contributions exceeded his career numbers, Podsednik was easily a candidate for regression and a risky multi-year proposition. The Tigers, Giants, Cubs and Royals have all expressed interest in his services.
ANALYSIS: Pierre, meanwhile, has a very similar skill set to Podsednik but at a much higher cost. Using speed and contact as his main weapons, Pierre put together a strong first-half of the season in Manny Ramirez's absence, hitting .328/.387/.417 with 19 extra base hits in 289 plate appearances. This was followed by a very significant drop-off in the year's second-half as he hit a paltry .264/.318/.339 with 5 extra base hits in 136 plate appearances. Pierre has been a plus-defender (5.6 career UZR/150 in OF) but has a wet noodle of an arm, allowing runners to advance on balls hit in the gaps. He is serviceable as a starter but with $8 million total committed to Pierre in 2010 and 2011, he will have to bring value in the form of his glove but expect a decline in his offensive numbers upon his relocation from the NL.

During the Winter Meetings, Chicago added free agent reliever JJ Putz to the roster. The White Sox signed Putz to a one-year, $3 million deal that can reach $6.25 million if he winds up being a closer. Because the Sox's interest in Putz was leaked from the front office, Chicago GM Kenny Williams said the club was forced to add another $500,000 to the base salary. "Let's just say it didn't make it any easier," Wiliams said in a conference call with local media. "You have your jobs to do, and we have ours. Certainly understand what we're up against when things become public. That's why we try to operate, at least since I've been here, at a more discreet level. And it has served us well. The times things have gotten out, publicly there have been some residual effects as a result of it, and in this case there was."

ANALYSIS: Putz's 2009 ended after 29 innings, shutdown because of forearm pains that an MRI revealed was fraying and tearing. He did not require surgery although his season was ended as a precautionary measure. Prior to that, his fastball's velocity was down (from 95.0 to 93.5 mph) and hitters were not chasing any of his pitches out of the zone (17.9% down from 24.7% OoZ swing). The Sox are hoping that he rebounds to the point where he is still a detriment to righties, who have slugged a career .298 off of him (though some of that minuscule power number can be attributed to playing in Safeco for six years), but since he will not even begin to throw off the mound until Christmas break its hard to say how the 33-year-old's arm will respond with the time off.

The White Sox decided not to tender a contract to right-handed reliever, DJ Carrasco, who made just $440,000 with Chicago last year. In 49 games, Carrasco went 5-1 with a 3.76 ERA and a 62/29 K/BB in 93.1 innings pitched.

ANALYSIS: Carrasco gave the Sox a versatile arm out of the bullpen, averaging almost two innings per appearance, but was used mainly in low leverage situations. He might give a team that is interested in keeping the ball in the park a decent option at less than a million (Colorado, perhaps?). This past year, the righty increased his usage of his 89-mph cutter (from 29.4% to 46.7%) and threw a straight fastball far less (from 41.0% to 30.4%). The results of which witnessed far fewer long flyballs and more infield flys as opponents made less heavy contact:

Infield/Fly Ball%

Home Run/Fly Ball%

2007

7.3

11.5

2008

13.3

6.7

2009

13.7

4.9

Cleveland Indians

The Indians re-signed pitchers Anthony Reyes and Adam Miller after not offering them contracts by the Saturday deadline. On Sunday, Cleveland extended minor league contracts to the pair and invited Reyes to spring training.

ANALYSIS: Reyes was a promising pitcher in the Cardinals organization but the talent never manifested itself in St Louis so he was flipped to the Indians for Luis Pedermo. In the early stages of his career, Reyes had several minor injuries to his shoulder. In 2007, Chris O'Leary wrote a piece on the dangers of scap loading (the act of bringing the arm behind the driveline and attempt to pinch your shoulder blades together). There is extensive debate on what the proper method is (if at all) but there a somewhat accepted conclusion that a pitcher should not raise their elbow above their shoulder when in the cocked position - this puts undue stress on the joints. O'Leary notes that Reyes was a big perpetrator of this, suggesting that Reyes will experience some elbow issues. By 2008, Reyes began to miss time due to elbow soreness and in October 2009, doctors determined that Tommy John surgery was necessary. Reyes will miss almost all of 2010 and will stand reminder of why scouting departments need biomechanics analyzing motion of pitchers.

According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes, GM Mark Shapiro is interested in bringing back first baseman/outfielder Ryan Garko who was non-tendered by the San Francisco Giants. In five seasons, Garko has compiled a .279/.351/.441 career line but has hit .313/.392/.495 against lefties in 485 plate appearances.

ANALYSIS: After being traded to the Giants from Cleveland in July, Garko struggled in the National League. In 127 plate appearances, he hit .235/.307/.330 with just 2 home runs but some of the production drop can be attributed to a level of bad luck has he had a low BABIP (.243) despite hitting a wealthy portion of line drives (18%). While advertised as a corner outfielder, Garko's fielding prowess should tether him to first base. Currently, the Mets, Nationals, Orioles and Rangers are all potential suitors for Garko.

Detroit Tigers

One of the few clubs active during the Winter Meetings, Detroit participated in a three-way deal that sent center fielder Curtis Granderson to New York and starter Edwin Jackson to Arizona to receive a bounty of left-handed reliever Phil Coke (from NYY), starting pitcher Max Scherzer (AZD), minor league prospect Austin Jackson (NYY) and left-handed reliever Danial Schlereth (AZD).

ANALYSIS: Granderson's offensive woes against left-handed pitching reached a point where the Tigers did not feel comfortable playing their starting center fielder when a southpaw was on the mound. In 199 plate appearances, Granderson hit just .183/.245/.239 while striking out 21.1 percent of the time. As a player that was reaching the later stages of his peak playing years with a reasonable contract signed through his age-32 season, Detroit opted to remove what would be at least a $20.25 million obligation to a player they started to view as a platoon candidate. In New York, Granderson's lefty problems and escalating costs is not a cause for concern as it is for Detroit needs to replenish a farm system and cut payroll, but his left-handed power will play well with Yankee Stadium's achievable right field seats and his defensive numbers should look better as the amount of real estate to cover is smaller in the Bronx.
The 23-year-old Austin Jackson is a somewhat overrated talent. While a good defender, his offense in the past two seasons clouds his projections. Since hitting .345/.398/.566 in High-A, Jackson's seen his power numbers and walk rate drop and his strikeout rate swell from 16% to 22%. The Tigers have said that they plan on using Jackson as an outfielder in 2010 so given his history, Detroit can expect some struggles as he adapts to the higher level.
Max Scherzer's power arm fits in well with the Tigers model however as pitching coach Rick Knapp worked hard to reduce the number of walks allowed, Scherzer's control will give Knapp a new project not unlike the challenge the departed Edwin Jackson presented. If that can be corrected, Scherzer could be a very dangerous compliment to Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello. With a 94-mph fastball and a 85-mph slider, his 2009 3.88 xFIP suggested that Scherzer could have a sub-4.00 ERA in 2010.
After increasing their payroll steadily since 2004, raising the total from $64 million to a high of $137.6 million in 2008, the Tigers have started to attempt to recoup on some of the trades made from 2007 to 2009. Especially after emptying out the system for Edgar Renteria, Maggilo Ordonez and Dontrelle Willis.

With Fernando Rodney scheduled to make an exodus from Detroit, possibly to Philadelphia, the Tigers are searching for options to replace him as the closer. According to MLB.com's Jason Beck candidates include free agent Kevin Gregg and internal options in Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Joel Zumaya.

ANALYSIS: Gregg has been one of those closers whose value and perceived value was overinflated by the save statistic. After being traded from the Angels to the Marlins, Gregg saved 61 games while allowing a lot of baserunners (1.25 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9). When arbitration costs pushed his salary north, the Marlins traded him to Chicago for a hard-throwing closer prospect Jose Ceda. In Chicago, Gregg increased his strikeout rate but saw a high number of flyballs slip over the fence (15% HR/FB) and eventually lost his closer job to Carlos Marmol. As a fly ball pitcher (44.3% in 2009) an environment like Comerica would be beneficial, similar to how it played for Brandon Lyon. The Orioles seemingly are the only competition for Gregg.
Joel Zumaya, although once considered the Tigers closer of the future back in 2006, has spent 353 days on the disabled list since then. Most recently, Zumaya had surgery on August 21st to repair a non-union stress fracture in his shoulder. While his stuff is still electric - averaging 99-mph in 31 innings of work and getting a swing-and-miss 26.4% of the time - shoulder surgeries are usually a long healing process that can zap a lot of the velocity. Said GM Dave Dombrowski "He's never going to have a 100-percent shoulder. It's just not going to happen. He had major surgery in his shoulder, and so it's not going to be 100 percent. So they have said that everything will be fine, but you still have to see it."
Ryan Perry, 23 years and 89 professional innings old, is another potential candidate. He throws was is classified as a heavy 95-mph fastball and a 85-mph change up that mixes up opponents. On Perry, Dombrowski commented that the righty “has the mentality to do it. He’s going to have to develop a little more consistency, which doesn’t surprise you, because he’s only been pitching professionally for a little more than a year."

Kansas City Royals

The Royals signed 35-year-old Jason Kendall to a two-year, $6 million dollar deal to be the team's primary catcher. Said Kansas City GM Dayton Moore of Kendall's acquisition "As we build our pitching staff — not only the young pitchers we have at the major-league level but also the young corps of pitchers and catchers who will be in major-league camp either this year or next year — his presence and leadership will develop a culture that we’re going to need.”

ANALYSIS: Instead of re-signing either John Buck or Miguel Olivo - a combo that helped the team's catchers hit a combined .814 OPS - the Royals committed two seasons to an aged product who has not had a wOBA above .300 since 2006. I've long given up attempting to figure out if there is strategy or if these maneuvers come to Moore in some hallucinations that he must fulfill. Moore seems to be basing this on Kendall's ability to squat for 130-games but at 35, odds are that he won't quite reach that milestone in 2010 and probably even less in 2011.

In addition to John Buck, who was immediately signed by the Blue Jays, the Royals non-tendered Mike Jacobs, the first baseman they acquired prior to the start of the 2009 season for reliever Leo Nunez.

ANALYSIS: From miles away, this was a disastrous move. Jacobs, a low on-base (.318 OBP)/high strikeout (21.5% K%) hitter, spent 2008 hitting a career-high 32 home runs and in the process raising his arbitration value. Not willing to write those checks for just power alone, the Marlins flipped him for reliever Leo Nunez. The Royals quickly discovered why due diligence is necessary in baseball. Of Jacobs 32 home runs, 14 (or 43.7%) were classified as "Just Enough". Almost half of his home runs barely cleared the fence in 2008. Couple that with relocating him to a stadium that mutes home run power and it is only expected that his totals would decline.

Kansas City agreed to a minor league contract with former Twins pitcher Philip Humber and have invited him to spring training.

ANALYSIS: These are the kinds of low risk, medium reward deals you take on when you have finished at the bottom of the division perennially. Optimistically, he might find a role in the bullpen but has not shown that he is capable of being a main component. There might also be the outside possibility that he is injured. For the past three seasons in the minors, Humber opponents have made better contact while he has struck out less and has walked more:

Humber - AAA

H/9

BB/9

K/9

2007

8.4

2.8

7.8

2008

9.6

3.2

7.0

2009

10.2

3.4

6.5

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Boof to Boston.

When the Twins opted to move forward with Carl Pavano in the starting rotation, it was evident that personnel numbers would be trimmed to accommodate him. After attempting to sign right-handed pitcher Boof Bonser to a very reasonable one-year, $550,000 contract - a deal that Bonser ultimately turned down – the Twins were forced to find a potential suitor or risk losing him for nothing. On Thursday, they found that suitor in the Boston Red Sox. Is this a great bargain or a buyer beware situation for the Sox?

There is plenty of evidence that the Sox are getting a decent product at a sub-prime cost. In 2008, Bonser ran into a considerable amount of hard luck. His .342 BABIP was inflated by a large number of groundball hits, his fielding independent metric of 4.19 revealed that he was pitching better than his ERA and his strand rate was at an inhumanly low 57.0 percent – all signs that Bonser is capable of pitching at a much higher level. The Red Sox are a team that builds their bullpen at a low-cost with guys that have a good stuff (Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito) and can be a cog in the late-innings machine. This, combined with his striking out 23.3 percent of hitters faced as a reliever in ’08, was enough to convince Epstein and Company that Bonser was a worthy risk.

The nature of Bonser’s injury would have been a concern to the Twins. After undergoing the same rotator cuff/labrum repair procedure in February 2009 as Jesse Crain did in 2008, it was obvious in Crain’s case that a pitcher does not hit the ground running the following season. It took Crain nearly 16 months to get back into his pre-injury form. This timetable for return, according to Will Carroll’s Saving the Pitcher, is the typical turnaround for these types of surgeries. With a crowded bullpen and an even more crowded payroll, there just was not space for someone that has a strong potential of being less than 100 percent healthy in 2010.

In addition to the health concern, Bonser has not quite demonstrated that he can be an effective reliever. While he’s got the minor league track record (917 strikeouts in 886.1 innings) and a decent cache of pitches (reviewed here last January) could translate into a solid bullpen member, there were also red flags about his numbers that suggested he might have work to do before getting to that status. For starters, his record against left-handed batters is abhorred. As I noted a year ago, Bonser’s struggles against southpawed hitters did not manifest itself until his sophomore season in 2007 when they hit .349/.407/.563 with 16 home runs in the small sampling of 411 matchups. Those numbers continued into ’08 when they hit .315/.378/.489 with 8 home runs in 243 matchups. Fixing this issue would require attention both in game management (ensuring he faces fewer left-handed hitters) and developing an assortment of pitches that would combat his lefty opponents. As far as I can tell, it is the former that the Twins have larger issues with. Unlike the Red Sox who appear to structure their bullpen to handle various problems, the Twins tend to favor the workhorse relievers that can face both sides regularly when called upon.

As the Red Sox acclimate themselves with their newest arm acquired at below-market rate, Twins fans will look to see what sort of prospect they were able to gain from a deep Red Sox organization. It could eventually turn into a Jason Bartlett/Alexi Casilla-type that contributes at the major league level or a Zach Ward that does not pan out in Minnesota. To be sure, Bonser has the potential to succeed in a Red Sox uniform, provided that they exercise caution with his platoon splits, while the switch to Fenway Park should help alleviate the pounding that left-handed sticks usually apply. At the same time, Bonser is capable of never rising up to his minor league expectations and being more trouble than he is worth in the process.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Is Carl Pavano Worth It?

Is Carl Pavano’s arbitration acceptance a genuine bargain signing or did the Twins just purchase Aldi off-brand pitching that will lead to nothing but dissatisfaction?

When access to the offseason’s premier free agents is restricted by choking amounts of fiscal responsibility, debates like this crop up frequently. By Bill Smith’s own admission in the TwinsCentric GM Handbook, the organization will never “be in the market for the CC Sabathias. We’re not in the market for the top guys.” Instead, they typically focus on the minimal risk and nominal investments players. Pavano is the epitome of that to the Twins. As one of the handful of free agents on the market that did not spend time on the DL last year, Pavano threw just a hair under 200 innings (199.1) while winning 14 games in the process and posting a solid 147-to-39 K-to-BB ratio - all respectable marks that would have “earned” him a contract of $16.5 million according to fangraphs.com evaluation model.

At the same time in the conventional sense, Pavano’s 2009 season smacks of, well, Jersey Shore crap-tacularness. His 113 earned runs were the most allowed in the AL and his 5.40 ERA was the third highest in baseball (one of the two hurlers ahead of him is very much named Livan Hernandez). This, coupled with the extensive medical problems, thinned the herd of potential suitors. As the winter thickened, it seemed that the Milwaukee Brewers (who are as desperate for pitchers as pre-gaming Packers fans) and the Cleveland Indians (who just want to remind people they are still around) were the only other clubs in pursuit. But when Pavano’s agent started pushing a multi-year contract like a used car salesmen urging you add on the undercoating, the two other shoppers threw up their hands in a no-thanks-we’re-just-browsing manner and walked out of the store. Recognizing the realities of the market, Pavano and his agent decided that a one-year deal with the Twins would be the best method of increasing his free market value.

To this day, a vast majority of the baseball world places an ungodly amount of emphasis on numbers like the ERA. Yes, it demonstrates that, superficially, Pavano’s season was sub-par however it does not indicate how he actually pitched. His left-on-base rate (66 percent) was well-below league average while his average on batted balls in play (.335) was much higher than the norm. He maintained a very good strikeout rate (6.6 K/9) and did not allow many walks (1.8 BB/9). If he posts similar peripherals next season, his LOB rate and BABIP numbers are almost certain to regress towards the mean. In short, his ERA should end up substantially lower in 2010.

Advanced metrics aside, Pavano possesses high-quality repertoire as well. As a strike-throwing machine, he jumped out in front of hitters 0-1 on 68 percent of batters faced (much better than his counterparts who were averaging 58 percent first-pitch strike). The zone dominance allowed him to use his nasty slider/changeup combination liberally when ahead in the count. For the most part, his stuff was outstanding. Opponents swung at 50 percent of his changeups out of the zone and rarely threw his splitter in the zone but hitters offered at it nonetheless. This pair of pitches led to Pavano being the most chased pitcher in baseball last season as opponents were swinging at 31.6 percent of balls out of the zone:

Pitcher	Out-of-zone Swing%
Pavano (MIN)	31.6
Halladay (TOR)	31.4
Baker (MIN)	30.4
Santana (NYM)	30.3
Billingsley (LAD)	30.2

Where he struggled last year was with his fastball – opponents tattooed his cheddar (.570 slugging, 17 of 26 HR allowed).

The Twins and Pavano will have a symbiotic relationship next season. Essentially, Pavano is auditioning for the multi-year contract at the conclusion of 2010 and needs a venue to do so. The Twins needed a low-cost, low-commitment starting pitcher with a better ceiling than what Jarrod Washburn would provide. If he remains injury-free, Pavano is very capable of supplying the Twins with an arm that has owned the AL Central rivals and a reasonable rate.

Win-win.

Friday, December 04, 2009

Guerrier's Progress.

Not enough good things have been said about Matt Guerrier’s 2009 season. After tailing off sharply in the second-half of the previous two year, the righty provided sustained dominance and gave the Twins a reliable bridge from starter-to-closer for the entire schedule. What was has been the difference for the six-year veteran?

In 2007, Guerrier roared through opponents from April until the end of July. In 60.1 innings of work, he possessed a solid 1.79 ERA and a .522 opponent OPS. By inciting a hefty amount of groundballs (47.6 percent), he was able to keep his batting average against at a tidy .188. Then the workload he amassed in the first four month began to show in August and September. Between the two months, he had worked another 27.2 innings but surrendered six home runs while allowing line drives on 20 percent of balls in play leading to a swollen .477 slugging percentage. The Twins had limited his role to sixth/seventh innings in the first half of the year, leading to a leverage index of 0.93 but increased his responsibilities in August where he finished the year working some of the most substantial innings with a 1.24 leverage index. Even with the digression in the season’s final two months, Guerrier’s overall numbers still looked good.

In the first several month of the following season, Guerrier retained his late season duties and was tapped to handle the difficult challenges. From April through June, Guerrier worked 44 innings and limited opponents to a decent .249 average while working in his highest leverage situations of his career (1.31). During this span, however, his walk rate had grown to 4.28 BB/9. His control was slowly eluding him as the season progressed. This control problem eventually manifested into being stuck behind in the count and forced to come in on hitters. In August and September, Guerrier threw a first-pitch strike on just 53.4 percent of his batters faced (his career average being 61.6 percent). Positioning himself in situations that often necessitated a fat fastball, opponents went 10-for-19 (.526) with five home runs after he fell behind in the count.

This output placed the Twins in a precarious position in the 2009 offseason. Guerrier was arbitration eligible and, if you subtract the month of September from 2007 and 2008, opponents had hit just.237/.299/.367 with 104/45 K/BB ratio in 586 plate appearances, which would make him a fairly solid candidate for a multi-year deal. Then again, in those two months of September, hitters had pasted him to the tune of .305/.394/.547 with a 23/13 K/BB in 109 plate appearances. In addition to that the workload combined with his age creeping into his 30s was enough to make one wonder if his arm was starting to experience some fatigue which might lead to some decline in the very near future. With question marks littering the bullpen, the organization sagely decided to sign him to a one-year deal, most or less to feel him out.

Instead of regressing, Guerrier responded big time. In 76.1 innings, he held opponents to a .212 batting average and lowered his walk rate from 4.4 to 1.9. Rather than nibbling with his heater as he had done so in the previous year, he sprayed the strike zone with his fastball – raising his in-zone presence from 48.5 percent to 57.4 percent. Opponents made a decent amount of contact (81.7 percent) but he kept the ball down in the zone better than he had the past two seasons which led to fewer hard hit balls and the 15^th lowest batting average allowed in the AL (.212) among relievers – courtesy of a 60 percent groundball rate derived from his non-fastball offerings.

There is ample reason to celebrate his contributions in 2009, but is there evidence enough to think he will continue at this pace?

Judging from his 2-run difference between his FIP (4.35) and his actual ERA (2.36), Guerrier is a prime candidate to drop-off. Revisiting his batted ball numbers, we find that Guerrier’s .212 batting average allowed was heavily influenced by a freak-of-nature low batting average on balls in play. His .222 BABIP was the fourth lowest among AL relievers. This is not a trend that typically continues for a pitcher with average-to-above-average stuff; eventually the groundballs find seams and the fly balls find vacant land or carry over the fence. Needless to say Guerrier’s a much needed component of the bullpen, particularly because the return of Pat Neshek remains an unknown until spring. While he may be deserving of a multi-year deal based upon the majority of his performance, signing him to anything more than another season would be gratuitous.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009