To Hawk or not to Hawk?

There was a time at the beginning of the Millennium when Latroy Hawkins was a bullpen stalwart. After a disgusting 10-14 season as a starter in 1999 nearly ran him out of baseball, Hawkins began receiving his mail down the third base line in the Twins bullpen. It turned out to be a career saver. Between 2000 and 2003, Hawkins made 267 appearances in relief, tossing 296.6 innings and sported a 3.09 era. Hawkins struck out 18.8% of the 1,238 batters faced in that duration. While a shaky closer in 2001, Latroy did save 28 games in spite of a 5.96 era, but it was his stint as the right-handed set-up man for Eddie Guardado in 2002 and 2003 where he pitched 177.3 innings with a 22.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.8% walk rate that guaranteed him a hefty raise as his contract with the Twins expired. Deciding that paying Hawkins and the recently free agented Everyday Eddie Guardado the market rate for a closer and premium set-up man was not within a mid-market budget, the Twins opted to use recently acquired Joe Nathan to finish games and inserted 25 year old Juan Rincon into the set-up role allowing Hawkins to persue other suitors.

One such suitor were the Chicago Cubs, just up Lake Michigan from his hometown of Gary, Indiana, who locked him to a two-year, $8-million dollar contract with a third year option. As the Cubs closer in his inital season under the new contract, Hawkins saved 25 game out of 34 opportunities (73.5% save rate) with a 2.63 era. In the final month of that season, Hawkins reassured the North Siders that he could still finish games as he threw 16.2 innings with 17 strikeouts, keeping opponents baffled as they hit just .197/.222/.328 off of him. Unfortunately for Latroy, the Cubs would only require a year and a half of that three year deal. After a particularly bad stretch in 2005 where in April and May he failed to secure 4 of 8 save opportunities and was knocked around by opponents (.250/.316/.444). Hawkins was run out of Chicago, shipped to San Francisco for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma, where he continued his Midwest performance in the Bay Area. Hawkins exercised his player option for the 2006 season, inciting the Giants to trade him across the country to Baltimore for Steve Kline. Once back in the American League Hawkins stabilized a bit, throwing 60.2 innings with a 4.48 era. His peripheral numbers plummeted though. In 2005 with the Cubs and the Giants Hawkins maintained a 17.4% strikeout rate. One year later in Baltimore his strikeout rate bottomed out at 10.3% - a significant decrease suggesting that he floated through the 2006 season on a wing and a prayer.

Desperate for bullpen assistance the Colorado Rockies signed Latroy prior to the 2007 season to a 1-year, $3.5-million dollar contract with a 2008 option. Hawkins responded by being a valuable piece of the National League champions' relief corp. He threw 55.2 innings with a 3.82 era. Once again his strikeout peripherals were low (12.8% k%) suggesting that he is nearly a rapid decline as he ages to the mid-30s, but a surprising spike in groundball rates (from 44% in 2006 to 63% in 2007) with one of the National League's best defense behind him (.700 DER, .989 fielding percentage) lead to a freakishly low .267 batting average on balls in play (.298 National League reliever babip average).

"I am not going to be a Rockie. It just didn't work out. I wanted to come back. I loved those guys. It's nothing but positive memories." Hawkins told the Denver Post when he opted to sign with the New York Yankees rather than Colorado. "We signed Hawkins to help us in the sixth and seventh inning, and to provide useful relief innings. He can take the ball and pitch a lot." Said Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman responding to how Latroy was going to be deployed in the Bronx. True to their word, the Yankees have limited Hawkins use to low leverage situation (0.93 pLI) in his 53 innings of work. Unlike his 2007 season in Denver, Hawkins could not produce the same groundball rate, dropping from 63% to 48%, and watched the average on balls in play increase (from .267 to .296).

	fb% | mph	crv% | mph	sld% | mph	chgn | mph	opp. avg	opp. slg	fip
2002 (Twins)	76% | x	8% | x	4% | x	5% | x	.217	.307	2.76
2003 (Twins)	70% | x	8% | x	2% | x	9% | x	.239	.322	2.38
2004 (Cubs)	75% | x	7% | x	8% | x	2% | x	.233	.395	3.54
2005 (Cubs/Giants)	76% | 93.6	1% | 77.4	14% | 86.6	5% | 83.3	.265	.420	4.93
2006 (Orioles)	75% | 94.0	8% | 81.3	12% | 87.4	2% | 84.9	.300	.428	3.86
2007 (Rockies)	69% | 93.5	6% | 79.0	14% | 87.1	10% | 83.8	.252	.393	4.77
2008 (Yankees)	62% | 92.5	4% | 79.9	20% | 86.9	11% | 84.4	.275	.386	4.11

As you can deduce from the pitch type usage chart above, Hawkins had a different approach when he was playing for the Twins and in his first season with the Cubs. He peppered the strike zone with an above-average fastball and interspersed the occasional curveball, slider and changeup. As he distanced himself from the Twins organization, Hawkins developed a reliance on a slider. His 2005 season when he started to favor that offspeed pitch was the same season that ran him out of the Windy City and wore out his welcome in the Golden Gate State. The following year at Camden, Latroy resurrected his curveball that he all but dropped in 2005 but still used the slider more so than the other breaking pitches as a result opponents average and slugging percentage increased once again. In 2007 at Coors Field Hawkins started to throttle down on his fastball usage and began implementing a changeup which is the possible explanation behind the increase in groundballs - batters were out on their front-foot as 31% of pitches thrown were off-speed. This season Hawkins eased up even more on his fastball as the velocity dropped an entire mile per hour on average while throwing the slider now 20% of the time. Interestingly enough, opponents are reaching base more frequently (possibly because of the decreased defense in New York) but are not hitting him as hard as his slugging percentage against is down as low as it is for the first time since leaving the Twin Cities. One of the biggest detrimental correlations between the added reliance on the slider and changeup is that he is susceptible to left-handed batters. This season against right-handed batters, Hawkins has been strictly a fastball (61%) and slider (27%) guy - limiting them to a .227/.266/.261 in 95 match-ups. The lefties are getting doses of the fastball (64%) but are getting the changeup (19%) over the slider (11%) which has led to left-handed hitters batting .338/.429/.554 in 77 match-ups. This has transformed him into a less valuable cousin of the Lefty-One-Out-Guy, a ROOGY. A small adjustment to his pitch repertoire could reap dividends for whatever team obtains him.

La Velle E Neal suggested that Hawkins under the guidance of Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson could have been the explanation why success has been at a premium outside of the Minnesota organization. True, working with Rick Anderson once again could give Hawkins the injection his career needs but Hawkins is far from the 8th inning guy they have been in need of. While with the Yankees he was used in low leverage situations, opting instead to use Kyle Farnsworth to bridge the game to Mariano Rivera. At best Hawkins would wind up as a facsimile to Jesse Crain or Matt Guerrier, with even fewer strikeouts. While his fastball is no longer as quick as it once was five years ago, it still has plenty of zip to be considered a hard ball. The secondary pitches are what have been leading to the high batting lines. At times Latroy Hawkins has had a career that has been lights out (2002-2004) but has also been as ineffective as an M. Night Shyamalan plot twist at other times (2005-2006) and then has had two in recent years that have been serviceable (2007-2008). In the midst of the pennant race, the Twins do not have the luxury to try to take on a project, especially if they assume he will be an 8th inning guy.

Livan Hernandez: Grand Marshall of the Hit Parade.

Livan Hernandez's assault on the most hits allowed in a season continued on Friday in Cleveland as five of the first seven Indians batters reached base. Even the outs that inning were punished as a deep fly ball by Ben Francisco resulted in the maiming of the best defensive centerfielder in the Majors and then nearly injuring Gomez's replacement, Denard Span, on a flyball that followed nearly the identical flightpath as Francisco's off of the bat of catcher Kelly Shoppach. After a second inning solo home run by Franklin Gutierrez, Hernandez regained his composure, keeping the Indians off-balanced and off the scoreboard thanks to a mixture of velocity and well-timed double play balls. Six hits came in the first two innings, six more came in the last six innings.

Still when the game concluded, a dozen more hits were added to his season total, bringing it to a lofty 190. This is well-short of the all-time record set by Philadelphia's Jack Coleman (772) in 1883 and the number doesn't even encroach on the modern record of 336 set by Mickey Lolich in 1971 which pitching for Detroit but Tommy John's 287 hits allowed while with the California Angels in 1983 is a more likely achievable goal for Hernandez. Records aside, the real problem for the Twins and Hernandez persists: his inability to pitch away from the Dome. He is as bad on tour as Chumbawumba.

home	innings	era	avg	obp	slg	games started	runs allowed	avg per start
Baker	41.2	2.38	.218	.238	.333	7	11	1.5
Blackburn	56.2	2.70	.273	.312	.441	9	23	2.5
Hernandez	78.1	3.91	.304	.342	.463	12	40	3.3
Perkins	53.2	4.02	.301	.341	.461	9	26	2.8
Slowey	36	4.00	.230	.266	.444	6	16	2.6
al average	x	3.82	.252	.320	.390	x	x	x

away	innings	era	avg	obp	slg	games started	runs allowed	avg per start
Baker	49.2	4.01	.259	.304	.446	8	22	2.7
Blackburn	63.1	4.83	.306	.335	.434	11	39	3.5
Hernandez	57.1	7.22	.375	.387	.543	10	48	4.8
Perkins	36.2	4.17	.284	.335	.447	6	17	2.8
Slowey	51.2	4.70	.271	.303	.472	9	27	3.0
al average	x	4.50	.269	.338	.419	x	x	x

home-away difference	runs allowed diff.
Baker	-1.2
Blackburn	-1.0
Hernandez	-1.5
Perkins	0
Slowey	-0.4

Of the staff, Hernandez has the most pronounced Home/Away split. At the Dome Hernandez is allowing 3.3 runs per start while giving 4.8 runs per start outside. Opponents are hitting .375/.387/.543 against Hernandez outstate, well above the league average of .269/.338/.419. Inside the Dome his opponents have hit .304/.341/.461 also above the American League average. One of the biggest reasons that he has enjoyed an 8-1 record at home is that the offense has been able to provide an average of 5.1 runs per game locally but has not been able to match the runs given up by Hernandez, scoring only 4.5 runs on the road, resulting in his 2-6 record. In the remaining 60 game, the Twins play 32 of those on the road, presenting a considerable problem for the Twins because Livan Hernandez will be starting a number of those games.

With a 3.5 game deficient, the Twins need to become as efficient as possible. Eliminating Hernandez's road starts would be a good start. There has been no trade interest in him, the front office is not interested in eating the remainder of his $5-million dollar contract and Boof Bonser is already claiming the bullpen's failed starter spot, so the Twins have to get creative with his deployment. Across the state line to the east, the Milwaukee Brewers have found an interesting solution to their fifth starter spot. Brewers manager Ned Yost has divided the 5th starter duties between Dave Bush and Seth McClung, dishing out the home starts to Bush (4-2, 2.49 era, .208/.246/.372 at Miller Park) and the road starts to McClung (1-1, 3.32 era, .239/.316/.361 away from Miller Park). If Bush would have the next start, McClung would be religated to the bullpen as the long relief help and vice versa. In theory, this maximizes the Brewers chances of winning by playing to the best strengths. In the short time it has been implemented, the experiment as seemingly worked. On July 21st, McClung threw 5 innings, giving up only 2 runs and leaving with a one-run lead (the Brewer bullpen gave up the tying run in the 9th but the team was able to tack on 3 more in the top of the 10th). With the fifth spot coming up tonight, Dave Bush will face the Houston Astros at home.

The Twins could replicate the Brewers by pairing Hernandez with another starter to tackle the away games. The most likely candidate to couple with Hernandez on the road is Glen Perkins. Admittedly, Perkins has had success at home, more so than Hernandez, though they have almost identical opponents' batting lines. Hernandez's opponents are hitting .304/.342/.463 at the Dome while Perkins's opponents are hitting .301/.341/.461. But Perkins is the second best Twins starter on the road, giving up only 2.8 runs per start with a 4.17 era. Perkins is an ideal candidate based not only on his road success but because of the amount of innings he is currently accumulating. So far in 2008, Perkins has pitched 123 innings, 12 fewer than the most he has thrown in his professional career. Using him even 10th day (with relief work in between starts) would keep him fresh. The next step to making this a reality would be to waive Brian Bass, with the hopes that he would pass through and be reassigned to Rochester, freeing up the space for a recall of Francisco Liriano to take Perkins's former spot in the rotation.

The Twins are far from experimental when it comes to managerial decisions. The relief ace is sequestered in the bullpen until a save situation only. The idea of a implementing a sixth starter to keep pitchers like Nick Blackburn, who hasn't thrown more than 152 innings in a given season, or Glen Perkins strong as the season progresses was dismissed by Ron Gardenhire. So the option of creating a platoon for the fifth spot in the rotation is a stretch. A team like the Twins who have a small margin of error needs to create an advantage wherever possible.

Notebook Dump (07.24.08)

Game: Twinks 1, Yankees 5

Box Score

Record: 55-46, 2nd place, 2.5 games back

Streak: 4 losses

The quote: “Funny things happen when we come to New York. I guess what we get to look forward to is a new stadium. Maybe we’ll do better at the new stadium. Not very much fun here today.” - Ron Gardenhire.

The Inning: Certainly Alexi Casilla has been one of the better additions to the ballclub since his recall earlier in the season, igniting an offense who would not have a baserunner for Joe Mauer had Casilla not been placed behind Carlos Gomez who has a phobia of being on-base recently. However his lackadaisical play in the field is detracting from the team and gave the Yankees, who are averaging 4.7 runs per game, an extra outs will come back to bite you in the ass.

Casilla learned this the hard way in the bottom of the 5th inning. Both Robinson Cano (the second-half hero) and Melky Cabrera singled up the middle out of Glen Perkins with one-out. Perkins threw an 88 mph fastball under the strike zone to Yankees catcher Jose Molina who bounced to Brendan Harris at third. Harris pivoted to Casilla, hoping to start what should have been an inning-ending double play, only Casilla ate the ball. "There are scoreboards everywhere in this game," Gardenhire said, "It's inexcusable. He knows that. He feels terrible. You think about that before. You look around. It's a routine double play. It's as routine as you can get it."

This brought up Jason Christian, the Yankees outfielder who had played in nine games at the major league level to this point in his career. In 1,982 minor league plate appearances, Christian was batting .287/.349/.423 - a very respectable line. Perkins went to bust the righty inside, the first pitch was too far in and was called a ball. The second one was too fat, barely inside at 88 mph. Christian turned on it and pulled it down the left field line. Cano scampered home from third and Molina, the baserunner that shouldn't be, chugged all the way from first to score as well. The two runs in the 5th were more than enough for Mike Mussina who was dissecting the Twins line-up and received crucial doubleplays from Nick Punto and Denard Span.

The Links:

* Kevin Slowey has been an object of bewilderment to me this season. Five outings ago, Slowey worked over the Padres line-up to the tune of six innings, seven strike outs and just four hits (Game Score 71). For an encore he subdued Milwaukee for a complete game, striking out eight (Game Score 89) however since then Slowey has seemed to go in the opposite direction in his last three starts. Over that period in games against Cleveland, Detroit and most recently the Yankees, Slowey failed to get past the sixth inning, walked six and struck out ten. Opponents hit .306/.368/.548 in that duration (.243/.269/.441 every other game), averaging a Game Score of 36 per start. Slowey has been slowed by a fingernail infection and had a bicep injury in spring training. There is no word on how this is effecting his performance but I would monitor how his next scheduled start goes before suggesting that there may be something to the injuries.

* Rotowire's Dave Regan wrote up a list of the top fifteen could be ready pitching prospects looking for a September call-up. Number nine on the list is Minnesota's Kevin Mulvey. Regan writes: "Included in the Johan Santana deal, Mulvey has been pretty good (not dominant) for the Twins in Triple-A this season. A 3.97 ERA and 7.4 K/9 won't wow anyone, but Mulvey is a polished college pitcher with 19 Triple-A starts under his belt now, so he's going to get a look at some point. Francisco Liriano is next up to get the call to Minnesota, but Livan Hernandez is always a good candidate to give up another rotation spot." Mulvey has not garnered that much attention this season, mostly because of his pedestrian 3-8 record, but his strikeout rate at 18.7% (17.8% on his career) is a fairly impressive total and as some one who throws strikes Mulvey might be able to benefit from some upgraded defense as the Red Wings have one of the worst fielding percentages and defensive effciency ratio. Look for Kevin Mulvey to be a candidate if anyone else has injuries following Liriano's recall.

* Jeff Pearlman recently followed up with Lamb when the Twins were in Boston, noting that Lamb's career soured from his days in 2000 when he was one of the Rangers' rising stars, and penned a piece that made Lamb come off as beaten. At thirty-two and currently hitting .229/.264/.304 with just the one home run coming in Detroit on May 23rd, we could very well be witnessing the swan-song of Mike Lamb. True, the Twins are still due $3 million to him for 2009 but the team has found that Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris make a very serviceable platoon at third while they also have Matt Macri available in Rochester and Matt Tolbert sizing up a return from the disabled list. Lamb certainly could become the guy squeezed out. But it looks like it won't be requesting a trade: "I'm not going to make any demands, I'm not going to request anything. It's up to them." Lamb told the Pioneer Press, "I don't know what they have in mind for me, or for the future. I'm just trying to be ready to play, one way or the other."

* If the Twins are looking for some pop to help out the line-up against left-handed pitching, the team may have to look mo further than in Rochester for the short-term solution. Randy Ruiz, the 30-year-old minor league free agent, has been tearing the cover off the ball in the International League as of late. After a slow start to the season, Ruiz is now hitting .309/.357/.504 with 14 home runs thanks to a 24-game hitting streak. In 107 at-bats against the southpaws, Ruiz is hitting .327/.397/.514. According to MinorLeagueSplits.com's Major League Equivalency Calculator, a program that converts what the numbers from one league would project to in another (i.e. how Eastern League performance would equate to Pacific Coast League, etc), it finds that Ruiz's International League line against lefties would equate to a .281/.343/.429 batting line against Major League pitching. This, of course, is substantially better then that of Craig Monroe, who in 77 at-bats against lefties this season is hitting .185/.221/.221. It would also be better than the rest of the right-handed batters in the line-up as well who are hitting .260/.304/.363. Ruiz would be limited to DH as his mobility is this just slightly better than brutal.

* If you unfamilar with Inside Edge Scouting Services, I'd recommend that you take a look. Great visual charts.

Deadline Acquisitions.

As teams jockey for position in July, General Managers begin to assess whether their club is a buyer or a seller. These are two radically different perspectives when gauging the market.

The seller ballclubs are in a difficult position. First, the local market is already seething with disappointment. Take Cleveland for instance. When the team sputtered out of the gate and never made a good charge at the AL Central the fan base turned sour. Analyzing the economics of the situation, General Manager Mark Shapiro was forced to trade pending free agent CC Sabathia early to Milwaukee for prospect Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson and a player to be named later. The focus is now on 2009 and beyond. The citizens of the Mistake by the Lake should be very receptive to this. It is reminiscent of the trade that Shapiro orchestrated with Bartolo Colon and the Montreal Expos. The Expos received a solid contributor in Colon (0.73 wpa) but lost prospects Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee for the rental of Colon for the rest of the 2002 season. "This very clearly and very definitively demonstrates that we are moving into a formal rebuilding process with players that we all feel are going to be here in the '04 and '05 seasons which are when we feel we can start to emerge as a contender again,'' Shapiro said. Sizemore and Lee have been building blocks for the Indians franchise and Phillips has been a great second baseman for Cincinnati. Meanwhile the Expos-cum-Nationals are now suffering the consequences of losing key prospects.

Secondly, the General Manager has to decide if it is a sellers' market, one where multiple ballclubs are vying for one of their league's six playoff spots, putting the General Manager in the difficult position of evaluating prospective talent from opposing clubs and trying to quantify how these prospects will be influential on their club's roster two or three years into the future. Sometimes this can backfire. When General Manager Dave Littlefield and the Pittsburgh Pirates decided in 2003 that they wanted to trim the budget and decided that third baseman Aramis Ramirez's contract with $6 million due to him in 2004 was too rich. For cost cutting measures, they dangled him for the buyers. "You don't like to trade a player like Ramirez who has come up through their system and performed like he did, but we need better talent and more financial flexibility,'' Littlefield said. "We need a lot more players to help us get to where we want to be.'' Interdivisional rivals Chicago Cubs and Jim Hendry ponied up shortstop Jose Hernandez, minor league pitcher Matt Bruback and minor league second baseman Bobby Hill whose stock had fallen wildly on his disappointing introduction to major league pitching. Bruback and Hill never ascended to the majors and Hernandez was a Dodger the following year. The Pirates trotted Chris Stynes out for 71 games at third base only to have him hit .216/.266/.296 with one home run in 174 plate appearances for $750,000. Ramirez, for $5.25 million more, hit .318/.372/.578 with 36 home runs. Pittsburgh could have waited one additional season before attempting to trade the 26 year old Dominican third baseman but opted to sell early, focusing on the rebuild.

But the gamble is just as high on the teams that are on the cusp of the race looking to buy. The General Managers, electing to "go all in" attempting to trade for one or two players that they think will push them over the top at the high cost of future, inexpensive talent, has often led to skeleton farm systems. The Atlanta Braves did this last year when they shipped five top prospects (including super-prospect Elvis Andrus) to Texas for Mark Teixeira. The Braves were 55-51, four and a half games out of the NL East behind the leading New York Mets, when they packaged Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison (a left-handed pitcher who the Twins just crushed), Neftali Feliz and Beau Jones for Teixeira and LOOGY Ron Mahey. "I'll think about next year next year," General Manager John Schuerholz said when pressed about the size of the prospect package. "If we win two pennants it is, or one World Series and one pennant. We wouldn't have done it if we didn't think it was worth it. We hope the result is that we win because of it, but there are no guarantees in baseball." Though Teixeira made significant contributions offensively (1.53 wpa in that span) to the Braves the addition wasn't enough as the team slipped the remainder of the season finishing 29-27 unable to overcome either Philadelphia or the Mets. This season almost at the same position as they were in one year ago, six and a half games out of the front-running Phillies, the Braves could go either way - become buyers or sellers - depending on how they want philosophically build in the future. With an aging core of expensive starting pitching (Glavine, Smoltz, Hudson) the club could choose to liquidate Teixeira who is on the final year of his contract and hope to reap dividends from whatever bounty a franchise rich in minor league talent (i.e. Red Sox) might be willing to trade.

Twins General Manager Bill Smith finds himself and his team in a precocious state. Just a game and a half behind the AL Central leading White Sox, the Twins are in a position to be buyers, hoping to address needs with two months remaining. Historically the Twins have been very hesitant on their maneuvers. They have not made any "deadline" acquisitions since 2001 when they were disappointed by the production of Rick Reed (-0.69) and Todd Jones (-0.69). Two seasons later they made an educated trade fifteen days before the trade deadline in what will prove to be the most successful mid-season addition by any team since 2001 (see Shannon Stewart below). They have succeed in spite of room for improvement, most notably a right-handed bat that can hit left-handed pitching and an E.I.G. (Eighth Inning Guy). Smith could let this current roster ride hoping that either the Chicago White Sox will falter. After all, Delmon Young could have a power-packed second-half and eliminate the need for a right-handed bat and the bullpen problem may have been exaggerated thanks to a series that exposed Neshek absence.

Top Midseason Trade Values (By WPA) Since 2001

2.30 wpa | Shannon Stewart | of | 334 plate appearances, 6 home runs, .322/.384/.470

July 16th, 2003 - One of the more memorable trades for the Twins was also one of the most successful infusion of talent into a line-up prior to the trade deadline since 2001. The Twins gave up switch-hitting Bobby Kielty who had been hitting .251/.370/.420 with nine home runs providing a respectable 0.61 wpa to the team at that point in the season. The consensus was that the Twins needed a legitimate lead-off hitter. Jacque Jones, while bashing home runs, was masquerading as a lead-off hitter and not getting on base the way the line-up needed. The Twins tapped Toronto's Shannon Stewart who had been their object of affection for quite some time. Locally there were some who were hesitant about the trade. Stewart was hitting a very good .294/.347/.449 with seven home runs but had not been adding much to the Blue Jays, adding -0.12 in wpa. The Twins were 44-47, five and a half games behind the upstart Kansas City Royals when the deal was made. After the Twins went 46-25, finishing 90-72, appropriately defending their AL Central title. In the playoffs against the Yankees, Stewart went 6-for-15 with 2 doubles but failed to score a run in the four game series.

1.97 wpa | Bobby Abreu | of | 248 plate appearances, 7 home runs, .330/.419/.507

July 30th, 2006 - At the end of July, the Yankees were a half game behind the Boston Red Sox in the American League East race and had serious challengers in the American League Central for the Wild Card (White Sox, Twins). The Yankee braintrust traded four fungoe bats assumed to be minor league prospects to Pat Gillick and the Philadelphia Phillies for Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle. Even though it was called a "trade" it was actually a pillaging as the Yankees tossed a few grains for not putting up a fight. Sure, the Phillies saved $36 million in the cost-saving efforts while Abreu and Lidle helped the Yankees go 36-24 on the remainder of the seaosn and watched as Boston tumbled 24-35 in that same stretch. The Yankees won the division but lost to the surging Tigers in the first round of the playoffs.

1.89 wpa | Greg Maddux | rhp | 12 starts, 73 innings, 6-3, 3.30 era

July 31st, 2006 - The Dodgers were staring up at the entire National League West at the trade deadline in 2006. Even though they were at 50-55, the only baseball team that resides in Los Angeles proper were not too far removed from the front-running Padres, separated by just 5 games. Convinced that this deficient was not insurmountable, Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti traded shortstop Cesaer Izturis, who was hitting .252/.302/.353 through 32 games in the season, to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for the future Hall of Famer. The Dodgers won 8 of Maddux's 12 starts and went 38-19 following the trade (the best record in that time in the majors). The Dodgers finished tied with the Padres but were announced as the Wild Card victors. The New York Mets manhandled the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs as Maddux went 4 innings for the loss in his only start.

1.86 wpa | Fred McGriff | 1b | 208 plate appearances, 12 home runs, .282/.383/.559

July 22nd, 2001 - The Lovable Losers were 60-42 with a comfortable five game lead over the Houston Astros in the National League Central when they traded AAA-lifers Manny Ayala and Jason Smith to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for the 37-year-old Crime Dog. While McGriff's offensive performance was about the only positive thing found inside the Friendly Confines as the Cubs imploded nonetheless and finished the season 28-32 - thirteen and a half games behind the Cardinals and Astros at 88-74. The following season the Cubs received 4.23 wpa from McGriff as the franchise spiriled downward concluding 2002 with a 67-95 record.

1.76 wpa | Ugueth Urbina | closer | 38.1 innings, 3-0, 1.41 era, 6 saves, 1.51 pLI

July 11th, 2003 - It's rare that a team trades mid-season for a relief pitcher only to have that pitcher be wildly impactful to the team's success but the Marlins were blessed with their return in 2003. South Florida's first professional baseball team was sitting comfortably in 4th place in the NL East, 13.5 games behind the leading Atlanta Braves, when it was determined the team needed to upgrade their bullpen if they expected to compete for a playoff spot. The Rangers were at 38-53, dwelling the the cellar of the AL West and looking to purge whatever parts might provide a return. Closer Ugueth Urbina happened to be one of them. Urbina had saved 26 games for a lousy Ranger team and his 4.19 era didn't appropriate reflect his true abilities. The Marlins packaged four prospects including future All-Star Adrian Gonzalez (who the Rangers would later trade to the Padres for Adam Eaton) and an Urbina-infused Marlins team went 43-26 the rest of the season. Urbina was well worth the half-season investment, solidifying the bullpen as the set-up man for closer Braden Looper then assumed the closer's role in the Marlins' World Series run, throwing 13 postseason innings accumulating 4 saves in that duration.

1.72 wpa | Jermaine Dye | of | 265 plate appearances, 13 home runs, .297/.366/.547

July 25th, 2001 - Billy Beane and the Bay Area East Baseball Club found themselves 16 games behind the record-setting Seattle Mariners at the end of July in 2001. Oakland's only post-season hope to fend off the Wild Card contenders in the American League. The A's absconded with Dye, convincing the Royals to accept Neifi Perez and talked the Rockies into agreeing to take on three prospects. Oakland finished the remainder of the season 48-13, thanks to Jermaine Dye's performance, and the A's completed the with the second best record in the majors at 102-60 to secure the Wild Card berth. Oakland was escorted out of the playoffs in the Derek Jeter and the Yankees (or more appropriately because of Jeremy Giambi's inability to slide on a close play at home plate). Dye would play three more seasons in Oakland including a great effort in Oakland's divisional series loss to the Minnesota Twins in 2002 where he hit .400/.429/.650 in 20 at-bats.

The Third Base Trade Candidates

It seems to be a shared conclusion between the frequently warring Hatfield Twins media and the Maccoy Twins blogosphere to agree that the line-up needs an injection of a right-handed bat that can handle left-handed pitching. Neither Craig Monroe nor Delmon Young have lived up to expectations in that regard and Michael Cuddyer's timetable of return is still up in the air. Looking at the Twins' third baseman's slugging compared to the American League average leaves no doubt:

Slugg. as 3B	Twins	AL	Diff
2005	.394	.428	-.034
2006	.374	.442	-.068
2007	.323	.427	-.107
2008	.371	.424	-.054

As you can see the Twins have experienced a slight rejuvenation in the position but has seen it creep northward only since they brought up Brian Buscher who is slugging .410 compared to the .292 of Mike Lamb, the offseason acquisition and opening day starting third baseman. The natural position to acquire a power-hitting right-hander at a reasonable cost would be third base. In the past four seasons, the Twins have been highly deficient in the power category at the hot corner. Who are some of the trade targets on the market?

Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners | 29-years-old

Contract: $12-million in 2008, $12-million in 2009 (Has limited no-trade clause with 8 teams)

vs. LHP - 2008	PA% vs LHP	BB%	K%	HR/PA	avg	obp	slg	lhp-rhp slg diff.
Beltre	22.9%	17.7%	8.0%	22.5	.351	.467	.554	+.144
AL RHB Avg	48.7%	10.0%	16.2%	38.2	.269	.345	.426	+.023

Validity? La Velle E. Neal reported recently that the Twins front office made the inquiry regarding Beltre to the remnants of whatever is left of the Mariners front office after the Bill Bavasi fallout to whomever was available to answer the phone. There is no indication as to how far the trade discussions went. Perhaps they spoke to a janitor.

What Will It Take? In terms of liquidable parts on the Mariners roster, Beltre might fetch the highest ransom on the roster. Contrary to what is written by Twins fans in various comments on Strib blogs, it will take more than just offering Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez and Brian Duensing. The Mariners are in need of pitching to bolster their farm system which is one of the commodities that the Twins have an abundance of. If you look at USS Mariners' Future Forty list of the franchise's prospects, you realize that besides those prospects that are currently occupying the bullpen at Safeco, the organization is extremely thin for cheap pitching in the near future. Seattle is committed to Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista through 2009. Sixty percent of the Mariners rotation is 12-29 with only Washburn and his 4.95 era the only one under 5.00. Those three are due a collective $30.35-million in 2009 with Washburn and Batista coming off of the ledgers after that season which leaves the Mariners with King Felix Hernandez and the possibility of Erik Berdard (if he is resigned after his contact expires after this season). With RA Dickey, the knuckleballing Rule 5 pick nabbed from the Twins this past offseason, assuming some of Bedard's starts while he is on the disabled list, the ideal of adding Bonser or Hernandez to the deal might appeal to the Mariners as they struggle to divvy up innings among failing starters. Bonser is still young enough to have the Mariners consider accepting him into their rotation. Hernandez would just digest the innings until the miserable season at the SoDo ballpark concludes. So that would leave the Mariners looking beyond 2009 which would require some of the young arms developed by the Twins system.

Why? Obviously the Twins haven't been able to acquire the third base package at TJ Maxx. Mike Lamb looked good on the rack but didn't fit right once we brought him home and eventually he worked his way from starting third baseman to taking up valuable space on the roster when Brian Buscher was recalled from Rochester and produced in the way they Twins expected Lamb too. There are several options of course, using an inexpensive and passable platoon of Brian Buscher and Matt Macri - a combination that may be satisfactory but would never propel a team deep into the post-season. Not only would Beltre aide in this season's post-season run, but the biggest appeal is that his $12-million dollar contract for 2009 does not look as outlandish as it once did when he was signed in 2005. The Cubs are due to write a check for nearly $16-million to the 30-year-old Aramis Ramirez who is hitting .253/.349/.387 against lefties and is ranked 24th among major league third basemen according to the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus (which is a stark contrast to his 2007 season where he ranked 4th overall). Beltre is ranked 2nd overall defensively among third baseman behind Scott Rolen. A season and a half of Beltre is worth the prospects and $12-million when you contemplate the cost of purchasing that kind of talent on the free agent market.

Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres | 26-years-old

Contract: Through 2008 at $0.41. Arbitration eligible. Currently has 1.08 years of major league service.

vs. LHP - 2008	PA% vs LHP	BB%	K%	HR/PA	avg	obp	slg	lhp-rhp slg diff.
Kouzmanoff	29.3%	4.4%	22.3%	28	.311	.366	.534	+.132
NL RHB Avg	35.4%	10.0%	15.9%	35.4	.275	.352	.440	+.046

Validity? Based on heresay and speculation. The Padres have super prospect 24-year-old Chase Headley who is, by all accounts, a better defensive third baseman with a higher upside and are in the market for major league ready pitching. The Padres' GM Paul Depodesta on his blog addressed that the Padres should actually be sellers - a fact shared by 80% of the Padre Nation.

What Will It Take? Similar to the Mariners, the Padres have two aging pitchers whose contracts are expiring at the end of this season. Certainly Greg Maddux might Brett Favre everyone and keep coming back and the Padres might pony up to resign Randy Wolf for any tour of duty, but the organization could also use a Boof Bonser addition to eat some of the innings this season. Bonser might find the confines of Petco Park to be beneficial to his pitching style. Past 2008, the Padres have two solid arms in double-A San Antonio, Will Inman and Scott Garrison, who are both throwing well in the Texas League, turning the legal drinking age this season but could possibly stand one more season of minor league experience in 2009. Another one of the aforementioned Missions' rotation-mates is the 24-year-old Matt Buschmann also pitching extremely well. In fact, Inman, Buschmann and Garrison are first, second and third among strikeout leaders in the League. On top of a Bonser or a Duensing, it would probably require a Jeff Manship (or at least a propsect in high-A or lower) to be added to the deal.

Why? Kouzmanoff is young and inexpensive and mashes left-handed pitching. That is about the gist of it. He doesn't have any patience so the higher on-base percentage is due to his high average on batted balls in play and not due to being able to draw a walk. His peripherals in that respect are closer to Delmon Young than Adrian Beltre who would wait and draw a walk. His defense is suspect-to-terrible. He received an A- for his ability to charge a bunt but is limited in his movement towards short. If the Twins think they can get Kouzmanoff to understand the strike zone better (which hasn't happened with Young or Carlos Gomez), Kouzmanoff would be a less expensive addition than Beltre. Then again, the Twins have been burned by the bargain shopping lately and might be better suited investing a bit more for Beltre. However, targeting Kouzmanoff and dealing with Paul Depodesta might be a way to get reliever Heath Bell (50 innings, 21.1% k%, 1.78 pLI) to fulfill that bullpen need in a one-stop shop.

Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies| 28-years-old

Contract: Through 2008 at $4.38-million. Arbtration elegable. Currently has 3.07 years of major league service.

vs. LHP - 2008	PA% vs LHP	BB%	K%	HR/PA	avg	obp	slg	lhp-rhp slg diff.
Atkins	20.9%	6.0%	3.6%	11.8	.461	.494	.789	+.388
NL RHB Avg	35.4%	10.0%	15.9%	35.4	.275	.352	.440	+.046

Validity? The Twins had made several investigative phone calls last year around this time to see if there was anything the Rockies desired. The word was the they were asking for the moon for him - even with uber-prospect Ian Stewert ready to produce the same at Coors but for what will be a fraction of the price. The asking price may have been steep considering the Rockies were only 5 games out of the NL West race at the trade deadline and felt like they could compete (rightly so). This season with 8.5 games between them and the NL West front-running Diamondbacks, the idea that the Rockies will part with Atkins at a reasonable amount is not far-fetched.

What Will It Take? Prior to the Cleveland Indians' collapse and subsequent in-season rebuilding, there was plenty of speculation that there was a move to be made between the two franchises - as Casey Blake was not the third baseman of the future and once crown-jewel Andy Marte is essentially an afterthought. The speculation was that the trade would require the Indians to part with Aaron Laffey (or Jeremy Sowers) as the centerpiece of the trade. The desire behind Laffey is that the Rockies are obviously focused on acquiring groundball pitchers to offset the homer-friendly Coors Field. You can bet the first words out of the Rockies' mouths will be, Nick Blackburn, who has the history of being a groundball pitcher in the minor leagues. At this juncture in the season Blackburn might be close to untouchable. Outside of Blackburn, Brian Duensing is basically a slightly older verison of Aaron Laffey, but gets slightly fewer groundballs, but might be passable as a trade candidate for the Rox. And Zachery Ward is a slightly more erratic (10%) Duensing with the ability to get the strikeout (20%) as well as the groundball (57%) but the 24-year-old is experiencing double-A for the first time this season so he is less than major league ready.

Why? The power is hard to argue with but it could also be Coors Field induced as well. Like his lefty-righty split, his home-road split is just as pronounced as he is slugging .189 points lower away from the Mile High City. He is still an elite candidate but you can believe that he wouldn't be fetching nearly as high of a ransom had his value been based on hitting at Dodger Stadium or Progressive Field all this time. At the same time in his career Atkins has hit a home run every 31 plate appearances at Coors and hit a home run every 25 plate appearances on the road. Even if Atkins proves that Coors was his performance enhancement, Atkins would still be under the control of the Twins only through the 2009 season, at which point he becomes a free agent, and then the Twins regain one prospect back through the Free Agent Draft.

The Friday Flotsam

* The PiPress's Tom Powers is suggesting the Twins pick up the recently jettisoned Richie Sexson to address several needs, most notably the ability to hit left-handed pitching. This, of course, would mean that the Twins would have to do the same to one member of their roster as the Mariners did to Sexie. Mike Lamb seems to be a logical candidate as the Twins have an overwhelming amount of players that can handle third base plus the left-handed Brian Buscher who is produce in the way the Twins wanted Lamb to when he was signed in the winter. One obvious reason that the Twins wouldn't release Lamb is that they are still committed to paying him $3 million dollars in 2009. Even at the cost of discarding $3 million plus and adding the 34-year-old Sexson who may or may not be washed up, the Twins might be desperate enough to execute a move such as that. Craig Monroe, the right-handed bat the traded for in the off-season, was acquired because he was hitting .260/.311/.467 in his career against lefties but is hitting a paltry .127/.225/.225 in 80 plate appearances this season. Sexson has had better career average against lefties (.265/.369/.510) and is doing better against lefties this season, hitting .344/.423/.623 in 71 plate appearances. Sexson would be limited to designated hitter but could also displace first baseman Justin Morneau for a night off (however Sexson has an atrocious glove, ranked 30th among major league first baseman according to the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus). Using Sexson ONLY against left-handed pitching would be the ideal deployment, however, Geoff Baker with the Seattle Times reports that the main reason to cut Sexson was his "body language" displayed when manager Jim Riggleman limited him to left-handed pitching. "I think he would have given us power immediately against left-handers," Riggleman said. The cost of adding the right-handed dh against left-handed pitching and late-innings pinch hitter to the roster would be approximately $4 million-plus (on top of the $390K league minimum payment), the amount the Twins would owe Mike Lamb, and the possible addition of someone who is unsatisfied with their role. BUT the Twins wouldn't have to package anyone in a trade (like they did in the futile Phil Nevin deal). Is this a desirable acquisition?

* Ragging on Sid Hartman is like shooting fish in a barrel of petroleum jelly...with a hand grenade. It really isn't sporting. He is to sports reporting what People magazine is to news. Nevertheless his longevity and "close personal friends" have kept him in print even though his columns have turned into uninteresting, rambling talking points introduced by his trademark "Well,". Today his column title ("Morneau sizzles at the plate, but also impresses with his glove") sucked me in via the TwinsGeek blogroll. Before I get to far off in this tangent, I want to begin by saying I do believe that Justin Morneau has developed into a solid defensive first baseman. He cannot handle the hard hit grounders between him and second or him and the foul line the way converted shortstop-cum-first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz could but Morneau has become a vacuum when it comes to the low-throws and picks. (Then again, I feel that having a first baseman that cannot contain a majority of the low throws and throws in the dirt is as useful as having a shortstop that can't pivot left for the doubleplay. It should be in the job description.) His ability to cover ground in foul territory has seemed to expand since his earlier seasons as well. Bottom line is that whatever range is sacrificed in the field is more than regained through his power and his ability to hit for a high average. Sid's justification for Morneau's candidacy for a gold glove is fielding percentage - a statistic that is as antiquated as the medium in which Hartman writes for. I would go into the complete details of why it is a faulty meter in this diatribe, assuming that most readers that have found themselves here at OTB have a good comprehension on why fielding percentage is a junk metric. According to the Hardball Times revised zone rating statistic, Morneau is eighth among AL first basemen at .709. Like it's predecessor fielding percentage, revised zone rating is a better yet incomplete statistic. The overall encompassing measurement is the one created by John Dewan. The Fielding Bible Plus/Minus has Morneau ranked at 15th among major league first baseman with 0. Casey Kotchman of the Angels, on the other hand, leads American League first baseman with a +12. Daric Barton, Lyle Overbay and Kevin Youkilis all have rankings better than Morneau. I do believe that Justin Morneau is a high-quality first baseman defensively but he is hardly a glove glove candidate.

* LEN3 wrote that the Twins do not have an 8th inning guy in the wake of two consecutive losses attributed to the bullpen. He indicated a very good point that the trade market for solid middle relief will undoubtedly be overpaid for. SBG's ubelman made a quick post that echoed the same sentiment. Without a doubt, the Twins have all the components to make an outstanding bullpen but lack the pitcher (Neshek) that would put it over the top. Acquiring it on the open market before the trade deadline would most likely cost the organization dearly. Last year when Boston traded for Eric Gagne they gave up Kason Gabbard, David Murphy and Engel Beltre. In 18.2 innings of work, Gagne produced a 6.75 era and opponents were hitting .325/.393/.463 in 89 match-ups. The Red Sox gave Gagne his walking papers prior to this season but were three prospects short when gaining -1.58 wpa in those 20 appearances. It would be more beneficial for the Twins in the long run to exhaust the search for an internal candidate before attempting to make a trade.

* The disbelief behind Nick Punto's play is quite staggering. Who could have predicted this? Oh yeah, me. I might as well have tried to forecast that gas prices would decline to under a buck a gallon or predict that Pauly Shore was destined for an Oscar in 2009 for the reaction it got me when I wrote it originally. I'm not saying that Baseball Prospectus should have me on the payroll, but still, have to pat myself on the back a little. Is Punto really a .320/.378/.460 hitter? No, but he isn't a .210/.291/.271 hitter either. He had extremely bad luck mostly because his .257 batting average on balls in play was the lowest among qualified batters in the American League - a direct result of him hitting line drives only 12% of the time. This season he might be one of the luckiest batters in the league riding a .369 batting average on balls in play with FEWER line drives (11%). Want another prediction? It's not sustainable but it is not entirely out of the question for him to finish close to his 2006 numbers.

* Watching Ron Gardenhire emerge from the dugout to argue with the umpire after questionable calls is getting as predictable as a band returning to the stage for an encore at a concert. Fans half-heartily cheer when Gardy gets going full-steam but it feels forced. It is expect. After finishing the book on Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver, "Weaver on Strategy", I have been somewhat enlightened as to some of the various reasons cited for why a manager would dance the charade of arguing with an umpire. Some of the reasons are legit, some are just out of sheer frustration. And sometimes the umpires egg you on - like in this recorded instance in a game against the Detroit Tigers. Personally, I love Weaver and the majority of his strategies but you have to love the way he handled the media the most. (warning: potty mouthery in the links).