OtB Twins Notes: Doumit & Willingham, Punxsutawney Phil, Street and Mark B

According to Joe Christensen at the Star Tribune, the Twins have contacted the agent of Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham expressing interest in the free agent catcher and outfielder.

With a backup catching need and a potential outfield vacancy needing attention if (ahem, when) Michael Cuddyer leaves, Doumit and Willingham are two sensible options to fill those positions. Doumit, who will turn 31 in April, recently turned down the Los Angeles Dodgers’ one-year, $3 million offer. He is coming off an injury-filled yet somewhat successful season offensively in his limited reps: In just over 200 plate appearances, the switch-hitting Doumit batted .303/.353/.477 with 8 home runs. Perhaps more impressively, he raked a healthy .315/.393/.519 against left-handed pitchers, potentially giving the Twins a DH/C option when the team squares off against tougher southpaw’ed foes.

The downside is, aside from the regular injuries, is that his catching is borderline atrocious. According to a study conducted by Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Fast, Doumit was found to be the worst receiving catcher in the game, costing his team roughly 66 runs since 2007 (or 26 per 120 games behind the plate). For a team like the Twins whose rotation works the corners and relies on expanding the zone, having a catcher behind the plate who shrinks it could be detrimental. Furthermore, fans have noted that his arm strength is slightly above average according to Fangraphs’s Fans Scouting Report, scoring it a 57 since 2007 while his accuracy was rated a 34 (out of 100). The Pirates recognized this and often tried to move him to first or right field in order to keep his potent bat in the lineup. Simply put, if signed, his catching duties probably should be limited. 

In terms of Willingham, my thoughts on him have waned. His coming off a well-time high production year at the age of 32 and is interested in a multi-year deal (reportedly a three-year deal according to his agent Matt Sosnick). In 2011, he batted a decent .246/.332/.477 with 29 home runs and 98 runs batted in. While it was a down year for his average and on-base percentage, impressively Willingham slugged .523 at his home ballpark in Oakland while the rest of baseball’s right-handers only managed to slug .363. What was his secret? Willingham is a dead-pull hitter with his power, yanking almost every home run towards the foul pole in left (24 of his 29 were dead-red left field). In the cavernous Oakland stadium, pulling the ball was the only way to hit for power regularly.

Much like Oakland, Target Field plays in a similar fashion. The gaps are distant, the wind pattern knock fly balls down in center and forget about trying to go opposite field if you are a right-handed hitter. By most player accounts, pulling the ball is the only way you will hit anything out. Unfortunately, players like Delmon Young said he had to change his style of hitting which affected his overall play. Unlike Young, Willingham is a natural pull hitter and would not need to alter his style to accommodate for the home park.

Defensively, by most advance metrics Willingham has been subpar in the outfield. The fans have found that he has below average speed (41) and a below average arm (47). Because of this he has been used as a left fielder, only playing the occasional innings in right. If the Twins add him and keep Denard Span and Ben Revere, they will have two rangy outfielders (much like before) but now two players whose arms are substandard for their positions (Are we sure Ben Revere isn’t left handed? Has anyone confirmed that yet?).

Judging from that assessment, he is almost golden in Minnesota, right? Sure, but on the other hand, he’s entering his mid-30s and has had several knee issues. That could wind up in problems in Year 2 or 3 of his contract and block younger superior defensive talents like Joe Benson.

Nevertheless, because of the scarcity of decent right-handed hitting outfielders it is not surprising that ten teams are currently interested in him yet due to Michael Cuddyer on the market at the same time, Willingham should land a marginally smaller contract despite outperforming him in 2011. My guess is that, unless a team greatly overbids for his services, Willingham will not sign a deal until after Cuddyer makes his decision, setting the bar for the next best outfielder on the market. 

Update: 1500ESPN and 5 Eyewitness News' Darren Wolfson checked in with the agent of the two players (they both share Matt Sosnick of SosnickCobbe). According to the agent the Twins, right now, are "not front-runners for either player." 

Interestingly enough, Doumit’s and Willingham’s agent, Matt Sosnick of SosnickCobbe, announced that the Twins have re-signed left-handed reliever Phil Dumatrait.

You know when you step in dirty bubble gum and you pry it loose from your shoe and toss it away only to step in it again a few moments later?

Dumatrait earned his way on to the Twins when Jose Mijares proved ineffective and injured. While the 30-year-old’s numbers look superficially good (3.92 ERA) the peripherals were gut-wrenching as he had a 29-to-25 strikeouts-to-walk ratio while allowing 45 hits in 41.1 innings of work. He was particularly awful against righties (.985 OPS, 15/18 K/BB), he managed to fend off lefties (.627 OPS, 14/7 K/BB) per his job description.

What makes him appealing to the organization is that Ron Gardenhire loves having his left-handed pitchers “spin it” (toss sliders). In 2010 Randy Flores was effectively fired from the team as he refused to “spin it”. For his part, Dumatrait, spins it. Last year he threw sliders 40% of the time to left-handed opponents.

Since the Twins cut him loose earlier in the offseason, this is very likely a minor league deal and having him waiting in the wings of the organization is a fine emergency plan for the bullpen.

Denver Post’s Troy Renck says that the Rockies are shopping closer Huston Street and that the Twins might be a likely fit.

First off, it’s likely just speculation. The Twins have an obvious vacancy so, naturally, any available closer they may call to inquire upon. There’s no confirmation that the Twins have even reached out yet. However, if they do, Street would be a very good fit for the team.

The 28-year-old Street has one year left on his contract for $7 million with an option year in 2013 for $9 million (or a $500,000 buyout). Street, while extremely talents with good results over his career, has battled injuries on the reg including a right ulnar nerve in 2007, biceps tendinitis in 2009 , shoulder inflammation in 2010 and a groin injury at the end of last year.

Again, when he’s been able to get on the mound, he’s been wildly successful. Dating back to 2007, Street has the fourth-highest swinging strikes rate among relievers at 13.9% - tied with the now overpaid Jonathan Papelbon. Beyond that, he throws strikes consistently, walking only 111 people in 436.1 career innings. Essentially, he’s Matt Capps with the ability to strike fools out. For the Rockies, he’s converted 88.2% of his save chances, giving them piece of mind at the backend of the bullpen.

The Rockies are known to have interest in Carl Pavano, who stands to make $8 million in 2012. Flipping Street for him makes sense. Pavano’s contributions to the Twins rotation last year, while seemingly unspectacular, his 222 innings were invaluable consider the shape of the bullpen and the crumbling rotation. In the past three seasons, only 11 other starters threw more innings than he did – finding that kind of consistency is difficult.

Replacing Pavano would be difficult but may be this next item could have something to do with that…

Former GM and current ESPN talker Jim Bowden reports that the Twins are one of 10 teams who have been confirmed from club sources as “playing on” White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle.

Here’s what I said about Buehrle in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook:

“Since 2000, only two other pitchers have thrown more innings and just six have had a higher WAR than Mark Buerhle. By most accounts, the White Sox left-hander has defied the principles in which SABRists have judged pitching. He doesn’t get hitters to miss (his 84.7% career contact rate is the sixth-highest since ‟02) nor does he coax a heck of a lot of ground balls either. He simply changes speeds, locations and gets opponents to get themselves out – year after year. The Sox are almost at payroll capacity so the likelihood of re-signing Buerhle, who has made $14 million per year since 2008, seems non-existent.”

Yeah, hey, I can’t figure him out. He doesn’t throw hard. He doesn’t get strikeouts. He doesn’t get a ton of grounders. He repels statistically-minded people. And yet, somehow, he manages to avoid surrendering 500 home runs a year while playing at a softball field. He keeps roughly 72% of his base-runners from scoring. Year-after-year. If you look at his heat maps, he’ll work the entire zone with various breaking pitches with different speeds and tie opponents up into little knots.

Because of the level of interest in the Type B Buehrle, it’s likely going to force the Twins out of consideration. 

What does Jamey Carroll provide for the Twins?

Without much time to get re-acclimated to his new-slash-old position, general manager Terry Ryan addressed a critical need for the team. Yes, it isn’t as a sexy move similar to the one that brought JJ Hardy to the Twins two years ago at this time but the pending signing of Jamey Carroll is a step in the right direction.

Carroll, a soon-to-be 38-year-old utility infielder, is not an appetizing addition at first blush. He has little power, little range and little experience as a full-time player. What he does offer is unparalleled patience at the plate and sure-handedness in the field. It is only after you inspect his track record and his skill set that you should recognize that he is what the Twins need for 2012 and quite possibly the most cost-effective way of filling that need.

Defensively, he has seen a sharp decline in the amount balls he can get to. Carroll stepped into the shortstop role on a more regular basis with the Dodgers the past two seasons when Rafael Furcal was sidelined. His play has been described as solid and able to convert plays within the typical zone but because of his advanced age, he lacks the coverage to make plays on those borderline grounders (something that Hardy excelled at). By Fangraphs.com’s fielding metrics, among those shortstops with 1000 innings the past two seasons, Carroll registered 46 plays made out of the zone. Only the aged Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria made fewer out-of-zone plays. Of course, compared to the flotsam that was trotted out to short last year (see: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Trevor Plouffe, et al), Carroll’s ability to convert on the simple plays should be somewhat of a boon to the Twins starting rotation – one that had a groundball-heavy tendency last season (45.3% ground ball rate).

Offensively, Carroll is the epitome of a scrappy hitter, making him what has recently become the expected archetypical Twins addition. Without much power to speak of, he exercises an extremely selective approach at the plate, swinging at just 35.4% of those thrown his direction since 2009 – a lower rate than everyone else besides Bobby Abreu and Brett Gardner. For people who grew tired of Joe Mauer watching far too many first-pitch strikes sail by, Carroll will give you more fits. Last season he swung at just 8% of first pitch offerings, tying him for the lowest amount of times he took the bat off of his shoulder with former Twin, JJ Hardy.

For the most part this technique has served him well. In the on-base percentage department, Carroll has been able to coax a high percentage of walks. His 10.5% walk rate is the sixth highest among second basemen and the highest among shortstops over the past three seasons. Because of this, Carroll has amassed a .364 on-base percentage since 2009, trailing only Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley in that department. To put that in perspective, among Twins players only Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and Justin Morneau were able to put up a higher on-base percentage that Carroll in that span.

Needless to say, Carroll makes pitchers grind through at-bats - his 4.27 pitches-per-plate appearance last season was the sixth-highest in baseball – yet there are signs that while his patience equals a walk it may also be costing him some run production at the same time.

Over the past three seasons, Carroll has come to the plate with runners on base 513 times and he’s managed to drive in just 64 runners – the lowest amount among those with 500 or more plate appearances with runners on base. Without any power to speak of – his .314 slugging percentage is the lowest in that group as well – he is forced to rely on his superior trait, patience. This has led to instances of him attempting to extend the inning by walking (a good thing, to be sure) but unable to bring home any of those runners on his own (questionable).

So he doesn’t drive runners but that’s not what the Twins are signing him up to do. He’s there to extend innings and wear pitchers out.

As mentioned above, Carroll has very little power to speak of. His isolated power number of .056, a measurement that shows how adept a hitter is at extra base hits, has been the seventh-lowest in baseball since 2009. His approach is that of a slasher, a hitter who goes to the opposite field and up the middle. Last year, almost 80% of his hits came when going that direction as you can see the cluster of his hits falling in center or right field:

The “taking-it-the-other-way” approach is one that the Twins organization has encouraged for years and, although it has occasionally kept players from realizing their full potential in Minnesota, in Carroll’s case he has been born and bred for that. At times he will dive over the plate to drive the ball on the outer-half to right and on others he will inside-out a pitch on his hands. Here are a handful of his swings that exemplify that style:

The biggest question that has been circulating is why would the Twins commit so much of their very finite payroll room in 2012 towards Carroll? The Star Tribune highlighted the details of the forthcoming deal:

 “Carroll's contract is for two years and $6.75 million guaranteed. It includes a $250,000 buyout and an option for 2014 that becomes effective if Carroll gets more than 400 at-bats. If he passes that threshold, he can accept $2 million and play for the Twins in 2014 or turn it down and become a free agent.”

While the $3.37 million per year may seem absurd, particularly when you consider he has never made more than $2.5 million a season and is closing in on 40 years old, according to Fangraphs.com’s player valuation system, Carroll has provided at least twice that amount of value in each season since 2007. Last season, he gave the Dodgers $9.8 million in value. Without question, Carroll - even if his role is just that of a utility safety net - should be able to at least match his contractual value in a limited role.  

In the end, Carroll’s signing is a stabilizing signing. The Twins were hemorrhaging last year in production from the shortstop position and he has been a constant at both second and short for the Dodgers these past two years. He could very well wind up fulfilling the Matt Tolbert role on the team while challenging the middle infield incumbents to improve or move aside this spring. If injuries crop up, he is a sound player to replace someone for an extended period of time rather than inserting someone not prepared for the job. 

Bill Smith's trade history hindered Twins

It was a tumultuous first year for Bill Smith. He had to face the reality of the face-of-the-franchise Torii Hunter leaving via free agency as well as annual Cy Young candidate Johan Santana making it known that he wanted to play in a larger market – preferably New York. In the first few months at the helm, Smith made two trades that would forever tarnish his reputation in Minnesota in the fan's eyes.

In November 2007, Smith dealt Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. In efforts to replace Hunter’s right-handed stick, the Twins purchased the promising Young at a high price. Garza would help fortify the Rays rotation while Bartlett would boost the Rays defense in the infield. After receiving 16.2 wins above replacement from Garza and Bartlett, Tampa’s shrewed front office would move the pair for more prospects and useful parts including Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, Hak-Ju Lee, Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell. Once the Twins were finished with Young (or rather Young finished with the Twins depending on who you are asking), Smith was only able to fetch Cole Nelson and Lester Oliveros. What’s more is that the Twins wound up paying over $2 million more in salary for their return as well.

Meanwhile, the Santana trade was a poorly timed, poorly executed deal which is viewed as Smith swapping the cash cow for a pile of beans. While none of the beans amounted to much, Smith did manage to save over $10 million and only lost out on 1.2 WAR (only factoring in 2008 for Santana which would have been his walk year). At the time, reports came in that the Yankees and the Red Sox had better packages ready (with Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester being some of the names bantered around), but both teams ultimately rescinded their offers (if those offers were legit in the first place). Comparatively, Gomez and company seemed like a sheer fleecing by the Mets and Keith Law’s analysis had the Mets coming out on top:

“In the abstract, it's hard to accept dealing your marquee player and top trading asset without getting your partner's top young player in return, and that's what the Twins did. They did get back significant economic value in four young players, each of whom has under one year of big-league service and two of whom aren't even on the Mets' 40-man roster yet, so the Twins will have each of them under control for six full years of service. That return in exchange for just one year of Santana's services is reasonable. But premium players should fetch premium prices, because there's value to a club in having so much production coming from a single roster spot. And in this case, Minnesota GM Bill Smith did not get a premium prospect in return.”

In hindsight, Smith failed to get that premium prospect and now most of the Santana bounty is scattered across baseball. Would have waiting until the trade deadline open more avenues or create more trade scenarios than the one he was pigeon-holed into prior to the season?

Even though the Santana-for-Gomez  and the Garza-for-Young trades started his legacy off on the wrong foot, Smith and his team were able to piece together favorable trades after the more egregious ones. He grabbed Carl Pavano and Jon Rauch for a pittance. Orlando Cabrera and Brian Fuentes were also exchanged for little compensation. He landed JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez. Those moves together provided the Twins with 6.2 wins above replacement and only “cost” the team roughly $10 million in added salary.

After the handful of trades that worked towards the Twins favor, Smith began to execute what would be considered two of the more painful and damaging trades to the organization.

At the trade deadline in 2010, the Twins bullpen was shallow and in need of a boost. They targeted the Nationals’ closer Matt Capps. Capps, who was an All Star that season and performing well for the lowly NL East club, was far from a dominating arm. He was a step above Jon Rauch, whom the Twins acquired the year before at the waiver deadline for the flotsam known as Kevin Mulvey. Only instead of giving up a player of Mulvey’s caliber, the Twins offered up Wilson Ramos – the Twins top prospect as well as the 58th overall by Baseball America. With little offensive help at the upper levels, the utter depletion of the team in 2011 exposed how badly they needed someone like Ramos. Ramos did quite well for the Nationals – both offensively and defensively. He hit .267/.334/.445 with 15 home runs in 425 plate appearances. Capps, meanwhile, who was re-upped for this past season, regressed hard and was beat around while earning $7 million. While the jury is still out because Ramos’s career is just beginning, thus far the Twins have lost 3.1 wins above replacement and have paid over $8 million because of this deal.

While the intentions were never clear – payroll, performance, injury history, clubhouse mannerisms – the Twins decided that they needed to move on from shortstop J.J. Hardy. True, he had a shortened season in 2010 but his second-half numbers were indicitive of an elite player, not to mention at a very difficult to fulfill position. Whether it was his decision or someone else in the club’s call, Smith sent Hardy and Harris to Baltimore for a pair of damaged minor league arms in Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobsen. HoeyJacobsen floundered a bit in the minors attempting to develop a secondary offering as well. Hardy, on the other hand, smoked pitches all over Camden Yards armed with health and a new approach to pull the ball. This move cost the organization 5.2 wins in 2011 but managed to save $6 million in salary in the process.

While there were some notably disastrous trades made, overall Smith managed to lose just 10.3 wins above replacement but saved the team $7.67 million after all the wheeling and dealing was done.

Here’s the thing: It is hard to fully evaluate a GM’s tenure. There are no encompassing metric which neatly ties in free agent signings, trades, minor league development and amateur draft in a budget-neutralized context. Because of this, it’s hard to accurately compare the work of one organization to the next. Is saving almost $8 million in salary over the course of ten trades in four years good or bad? How about costing your team 10 wins over four seasons? Is that average for a GM?

Reviewing Smith’s trade track record, it is not hard to see that he likely has done more harm than good. While he was proficient at adding pieces in-season, his ability to build for the future through trades was atrocious. It is this area that newly appointed general manager Terry Ryan was particularly successful at. During his first administration, Ryan managed to build a competitive franchise by trading off soon-to-be departing players and the excess fat. With a system that is currently bottom-heavy and holes abound on the major league roster, installing someone like Ryan who has been lauded for his ability to extract talent from other teams is the right decision for the Twins. 

Twins excuse GM Bill Smith

In a somewhat unexpected turn of events, the Twins have excused general manager Bill Smith of his duties in the front office.

This comes shortly after the team declined the Baltimore Orioles the opportunity to interview Vice President of Player Personnel Mike Radcliff and the reports that they are trying to re-hire Wayne Krivsky, who was the Cincinnati Reds’ GM from 2006 to 2008. Clearly, ownership was not satisfied by the results generated by the current leadership.

According to Smith, on Friday he was notified that the Twins were going to insert Terry Ryan as the interim GM and allow Ryan to search for suitable replacements – which could very well be either Radcliff or Krivsky.

During a post-firing interview with 1500ESPN, Smith admitted that the two sides had “philosophical differences” in their approach. In his tenure as the GM, Smith had made plenty of trades that seemed highly questionable at the time and looked exponentially worse in retrospect – including his Johan Santana deal, the Garza-for-Young, Ramos-for-Capps and Hardy-for-Hoey and Jacobsen. While not necessarily alone on the decision, Smith green-lit signing Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a sizeable deal and the Japanese shortstop has been a complete disaster in year one of his contract. All of this has added up to an organization that is struggling to remain competitive in an improving AL Central.

Globally for the Twins, payroll increased but was allocated to only a handful of players while the farm system became dilapidated at the highest levels – a fact that came to light when the expensive talent was injured without major league-ready assistance available. When players did arrive, they failed to play at a level which the Twins had become accustom to and the once-touted “Twins way” was not being instilled properly to the younger players.

In another curious decision, when the Twins were seven games out with a week left until the non-waiver trade deadline and appeared out of the division race, the front office stood pat with its tradable commodities, refusing to move coveted soon-to-be free agents in Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel. While the team may get draft picks in return, the bounty at the deadline from desperate teams would have likely outweighed whatever supplemental pick the organization receives (and also grabbing players who would likely be able to contribute sooner rather than later). Who knows if that was just Smith’s decision but in the end someone needs to be there to make those types of tough calls.

To his credit, Smith and his team made in roads towards rebuilding the system, such as signing heralded international prospect Miguel Sano to a significant contract, as well as making some decent signings that provided some return on investment including Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson. While his headlining trades backfired or bore little fruit, Smith and his advisors managed to squeeze out some talent when acquiring such players like Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch and JJ Hardy. 

The Twins are at a major crossroad. There are numerous holes to fill, a small amount of money to play with and an even smaller amount of trade bait available. Whoever takes over the player acquisition role this winter, they will have a tall task ahead of them of addressing the current and future needs of the franchise. 

The OtB 2011 Offseason Blueprint

When we started creating the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook two years ago, the idea was to place the reader in the position of the Twins general manager. We would provide as much information about the organization from top to bottom, as well as the free agent market, for the reader to make the most educated  

It feels as if there is some common misconception that Bill Smith is making all the offseason decisions by himself in a bubble. True, his position is where the buck stops however Mr. Smith is not alone in the process. He has recommendations and suggestions from various sources within the organization. Some may have one solution for shortstop while another may have a completely different answer for the middle infield problem. The general manager must take all of these ideas into consideration and devise a plan of action. In essence, that’s what we at TwinsCentric have attempted to provide you in our Offseason GM Handbooks – the chance to take all of the available information, a handful of recommendations and ultimately make your decision for the 2012 Twins season.

To take it one step further, we highly advise that you jot together what your 2012 roster would be for the Twins. As Nick Nelson outlined earlier in the week, if you send us your blueprint (send to TwinsCentric@gmail.com) we’ll send a copy of our forthcoming Maple Street Twins Annual 2012 to an entrant drawn at random.  

So pick up a copy of the 2011 TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook and study up. Until then, here’s my recommendation from that eBook:

(1) Let Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel walk.

As difficult as it will be for clubhouse morale, the market will likely make Cuddyer’s contract too rich of a deal to keep the aging outfielder around. Outside of his leadership, his versatility and ability to crush left-handed pitching will be sorely missed. Jason Kubel too will be forced out of the club based on his increased pay scale. At just 29 years old, it will be difficult to watch him go as he has raked when healthy. At the very least, the Twins can take comfort in knowing they will receive a pair of supplemental pick in the 2012 draft further rebuilding a pipeline that hasn’t function well as of late.

(2) Offer arbitration to Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla and Glen Perkins.

(3) Trade for Colby Lewis.

I don’t recommend building through trades with the current status of the organization – the farm system is gruel thin at the top and sparse in key positions throughout. But Colby Lewis’s ability to throw 200 innings at a pauper’s rate is too attractive to pass up.

Texas is rumored to be looking at Yu Darvish and will also be interested in keeping C.J. Wilson as well. With those two combined with three other young arms it might make the 31-year-old Colby Lewis expendable. Lewis a very good pitchers hidden behind some m’eh numbers the past two seasons (26-23, 4.06 ERA but 56 HRs allowed in 64 games) and owed just $3.25 million in 2012. Arlington’s hitter-friendly environment did not play well to Lewis’s style as the strike-thrower had 22 home runs tagged off him at The Ballpark. A season at Target Field should cure what ails him there.

The Twins made inroads to signing Lewis before the 2010 season after his successful Japan campaign but were thwarted by the Rangers – the organization who gave Lewis his first chance. The question is what would it take for the Twins to acquire him now? For the most part, the Rangers are set for the next several years in both the offense and pitching departments. But they need for space and Lewis’s gopher ball tendencies may help decrease his value in Texas’s eyes. Meanwhile, the Twins don’t have much in terms of MLB-ready prospects so it may take some lower-level prospects to entice Rangers GM Jon Daniels to make a deal. I’d offer Bruce Pugh, the 22 year old relief prospect who struck out 75 in 64 innings split between Fort Myers and New Britain, and Michael Tonkin, 21 year old reliever with 69 strikeouts in 76.2 innings at Beloit. Both prospects have very good upsides but Lewis is a very cheap and reliable starting pitcher.

(4) Trade Kevin Slowey (and prospect) to Colorado for catcher Chris Iannetta.

With Lewis in the mix, this creates an opportunity to move Kevin Slowey whose salary will be, uh, embiggering. From Minnesota’s perspective, right or wrong, Slowey has become what some suggest is a malcontent, a player who rejected his initial assignment out of spring camp and has been constantly dealing with minor injuries. Meanwhile, Iannetta, also sidelined with injuries, is a right-handed catcher who is capable of starting. 

The Rockies need to further improve their rotation for 2012. After trading Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland this past year, they may lose veteran Aaron Cook and will be left with a myriad of solid prospects (Drew Pomeranz headlining that group) that might not be ready for the big league role. Slowey’s experience, upside (he has a very good 4.70 K/BB ratio in his career) and two seasons of club control still ahead may be enticing enough to Colorado to move their one-time starting catcher. His shaky outings in 2011 won’t be enough to pry away Iannetta and will like require another prospect.

For the Twins, Iannetta represents the thing that they desperately needed this season when Joe Mauer broke down – a legitimate starting catching option. The right-handed hitting Iannetta has put up outstanding numbers since assuming regular duties in Denver back in ’07. Among those catchers with a minimum of 1000 plate appearances, Iannetta’s offense, with a .347 wOBA, has been the seventh-best trailing such luminaries as Mauer, Jose Posada, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann. Of course, with your home stadium up in the mountains, you can’t ignore the influence of the altitude. For Iannetta, this has meant a home OPS 162 points higher than when he is outside of the Rockies. Admittedly, this doesn’t necessarily bode well for a transition over to Target Field.

What Iannetta does possess are attributes such as patience (a 13.9% career walk rate) and the ability to slaughter left-handed pitching (a career .252/.391/.520 hitter against southpaws). These factors should play well for the Twins who have lost Michael Cuddyer to free agency and can use Iannetta in a DH role versus tougher lefties, if necessary.

It is possible that Mauer is able to catch the bulk of games this season but Iannetta is the insurance policy that they should have had ready in Wilson Ramos.

(5) Sign free agents David Dejesus (1 year, $5.5M), Derrek Lee (1 year, $5M), Clint Barmes (2 years, $8M) and Laynce Nix (1 year, $1.5M).

David DeJesus is coming off a down year as well as two straight with his thumb issue but he is still an elite defender in the corner outfield position. In right field for the A’s last year, his Plus/Minus rating of +21 plays was the second-best in that position. Offensively, he’s a near-perfect candidate for the two-spot as he has a high on-base history (career .356 OBP) and decent speed (Orlando Hudson-ish level). I believe he is primed for a rebound season because he suffered from the dreaded unlucky BABIP year. A line drive hitter by nature (over 20% line drive rate), DeJesus also hits a ton of grounders but held a .183 BABIP on those in ‘11 – well below his career norm of .245. This should correct itself in 2012 and he should hit closer to his career line of .284/.356/.421 once again.

While many thought Derrek Lee was washed up or overmatched by American League pitching early this year, a late season surge has some thinking there is something left in the tank. Following a trade to Pittsburgh, team doctors discovered that Lee had a bone fracture in his hand and sat out most of the month of August. When he returned in September, the healthy Lee went 29-for-83 (.349) with five home runs. He’s particularly attractive to the Twins as he uses the big part of the field, hitting line drives to center over 22% of the time. He can play first well in the event Justin Morneau is unable to go but his main focus should be as the designated hitter.

Yes, the Twins have plenty of internal options at short but all of them are shaky at best. Barmes has been a very good defender at short. When he was the starter in Colorado in 2006, his defense was the second-best according to the Plus/Minus system. Given the starting role again in Houston this year, he finished third among shortstops defensively. His offensive is substandard but for a contact-oriented team like the Twins, 2010 showed how vital it is to have high-caliber defenders.

Finally, the Twins are going to need some depth and versatility on the bench. I am keeping Tsuyoshi Nishioka (plays middle infield, should improve) and Trevor Plouffe (infield and corner outfield) but will add Laynce Nix as a fourth outfielder and pinch hitter. Defensively, Nix has been a decent corner outfielder, has performed well against right-handed pitching (.792 OPS since ’09) and has 123 pinch hits in the past three seasons (fifth-most in that time).

Now on to the bullpen…

(6) Sign Octavio Dotel (1 year, $3.75M) and Michael Wuertz (1 year, $1M)

The Twins skimped on bullpen arms last year. This is fine if they targeted the right individuals but instead they wound up with Dusty Hughes and Jim Hoey. Glen Perkins proved that he is capable of being a high-quality set-up man but the rest of the ‘pen was in shambles. Fortunately, we can retain Joe Nathan, Perkins and move Brian Duensing to the pen to handle left-handed heavy portions of the opponents’ order.

Dotel would give the Twins a strikeout guy and is very effective against right-handed opponents. In fact, since 2009, he has struck out 32.6% of righties faced – sixth-best in that time – while holding them to a .179 batting average against. If able to be locked in for just the one year, he would be a very good compliment to Perkins in the late innings role.

To take a page out of the Rays’ playbook, Wuertz is the kind of inexpensive talent they would roll the dice on. Sure, he’s got plenty of problems, he has suffered shoulder injuries the past two seasons, his fastball’s velocity was down to 88-mph last year and his command was nearly non-existent. However, because of his slider that he favors, he still was able to get a swing-and-miss at a very high clip (12.4%). In the season’s first-half, he was effective, throwing 25.1 innings with a 2.49 ERA and a good 23/12 K/BB ratio. On top of that, he held opponents to a .189 batting average against. From July onward he struggled mightily, throwing 8.1 innings with a 9/14 K/BB ratio and a repugnant .476 batting average against. For a million bucks (or more hopefully a minor league deal), the gamble that Wuertz can regain his early season success is merited.

After these moves, this is what you end up with for the 2012 season:

(Click to embiggen)

This roster addresses some of the team’s more critical needs including middle infield defense, adding professional hitters, bench depth, strengthening the rotation and putting a power arm in the bullpen. With the exception of Lewis and Iannetta, all moves were made without dipping into the farm system. Likewise, payroll was pared down to near $110 million.