Infield Hits: Death by papercuts?

I have spent plenty of time in this space dedicated to the deterioration of the Twins’ infield defense. The once flourishing empire has crumbled into a shell of its former self.

We know that the 2011 infield defense has been both porous and error-prone – a lethal combination for the home team – but it is equally terrible at converting balls that remain in the infield to outs just the same. Heading into last night’s game, the Twins infield had allowed 198 infield hits, by far the most in the AL. That’s also 25 more than they allowed last season. They have allowed 17 more hits than the next closest team, the Chicago White Sox, and a whopping 56 more infield hits than the Boston Red Sox who have allowed the fewest hits within the infield area.

On Monday it was the Twins inability to turn grounders that stay within the infield dirt into outs proved to be their ultimate demise as they allowed another FIVE infield hits.

Kevin Slowey cruised through the first five innings while scattering several hits. Unfortunately, some of those scattered we ones that could have been turned into outs. With one out in the first, Melky Cabrera hit a slow chopper towards shortstop Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe was unable to make the play on the ball and get the speedy Cabera at first. Then, by means of small ball, the Royals were able to move Cabrera to third and score him on an Eric Hosmer sacrifice fly.

Admittedly, the play was somewhat difficult – especially considering from where Plouffe was starting from – but it is not a play that we haven’t seen more athletic shortstops make in the past. But, to be fair, the Royals are one of baseball’s speedier team – racking up 154 infield hits of their own, the second-most in MLB – so it’s difficult to put tonight’s five infield hits entirely on the Twins defense.

That stood as the Royals only run until the sixth inning. Once again it was Cabrera who singled on an infield grounder to Plouffe and once again, the Royals moved Cabrera around to score. Now, Slowey – who was on the brink of collapsing as he is wont to do this season – was not helping his cause at this point either. In fact, he threw 97 pitches and got just 4 swinging strikes (all on fastballs). At the juncture, he was giving up loud outs and hard-hit balls all over the yard.

Kevin Slowey (2011)
Split	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st PA in G, as SP	63	7	14	2	0	4	10.00	.233	.254	.467	.721
2nd PA in G, as SP	63	12	17	4	2	2	7.00	.283	.317	.517	.834
3rd PA in G, as SP	42	11	18	5	0	1	3.50	.486	.500	.703	1.203

(via Baseball-Reference.com)

It is impossible to predict the outcome if the Twins had been able to get some of those outs.  Still, you have to wonder, if Plouffe had been able to make either play on Cabrera, the Royals would likely have not scored – certainly not in the first. Plus, making those plays would have shaved off possibly 10 or so pitches off of Slowey’s pitch count. Is it possible that that would have gotten him through the sixth?

Beyond just last night, think about that on a larger scale – How many additional pitches on the pitching staffs arms? How many runs do 25 additional base runners equate to? Could that be at least a five-win difference on the basis of the infield defense alone?

When the season ends in a few days, one of the biggest offseason priorities should be to find a way to stop the hemorrhaging in the infield.  

Plouffe has shown promise, just not in September

For a while there, given the opportunity to try on the shortstop position for next season, Trevor Plouffe looked as if it was going to fit him good.

From August 15 to September 3, Plouffe played in 20 games and hit an impressive .316/.365/.506 in 86 plate appearances. The ball was exploding off of his bat and his fielding was much improved since his early season yips. Unfortunately, since committing the cardinal sin in baseball – forgetting how many outs there are – he has fallen into the abyss. From September 4 on, Plouffe has gone a measly 5-for-43 (.116) in 49 plate appearances and has committed five errors in the field. Basically, he’s playing like a man about to lose the job.

According to 1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey, manager Ron Gardenhire had some remarks directed towards Plouffe’s recent play:

"He's scuffled lately at making plays that really we have to make. And I don't know if he's just relaxed enough, he's comfortable back up here, he knows he's going to play and lost a little bit of the edge, I don't know. Because there's been some sloppy, sloppy play out there when he was going along really, really good and really focused on it. So that just tells you a little bit about the game up here.

You can't let your guard down. You're going along, and I don't know if he's done that, I don't think so. He seems like he's intense and he's doing all of this work, but he's gotten a little sloppy out there lately, and he knows it."

Scuffling is putting it lightly. Like when your mom says "you are not fat, you are husky."

Defensively, we have witnessed some seriously lackadaisical play in the field. For example, on September 14 in Kansas City, with runners on first and third with nobody out, second baseman Johnny Giavotella chopped one towards Plouffe’s right. Plouffe gobbles it up on the move and – while still shuffling his feet and fading away from the play – he throws off-target to Matt Tolbert covering second.

Given the speed and location that the ball was hit, the likelihood that the ball was going to result in just one out was high. Plouffe had all the time in the world on this to get his feet set and make a strong throw to the bag – getting that all-important first out. Instead, he got lazy and fired one into the outfield. The Royals scored and were denied a second run on a solid throw home by first baseman Chris Parmelee (who must have practiced those oh-so-routine throws from behind the camera well in New Britain).

The defensive shortcomings are nothing new to Plouffe’s game – after all, he had a poor camp in the field and his attempts to maim spectators sitting behind first base got him sent back to Rochester for further Twins Way indoctrination – yet, up until recently, he provided a decent stick to compensate for those miscues.  

While Plouffe’s sudden offensive decline has little explanation from a data or scouting standpoint, there are some troubling trends nonetheless that suggest this isn’t just a BABIP-related slump. His line drive rate has dropped drastically in September and he is receiving more fastballs in September but isn’t fairing as well against them as he did in August (-1.4 runs above average in September versus 1.1 runs above average in August). Aside from seeing more fastballs, pitchers are targeting the same spots and mechanically he looks the same.

One of the biggest factors is that Plouffe isn’t pulling the ball as well this month. Take a look at his hit charts between the two samplings:

While spreading the ball to all fields is well and good, pulling the ball is where Plouffe makes his money. So far this season, Plouffe is slugging .679 when he hits the ball to left and six of his seven home runs have gone out that direction.

Offensively, there are signs that there may be sunnier days ahead for Plouffe. Previously, I highlighted some of the mechanical changes that he made that have given him some added power. Essentially, by stabilizing his pre-swing bat movement and incorporating a more violent leg lift/plant, he has been able to drive the ball more resulting in more fly balls and line drives and fewer ground balls. As such, Plouffe has smacked a career-high 22 home runs so far in 2011.

Meanwhile, on the field, Plouffe needs someone to help get him under control. In 2009, the Milwaukee Brewers hired Willie Randolph in part to help improve the fielding of the highly talented second baseman Rickie Weeks. Because of Randolph’s tutelage, Weeks progressed from an error-prone, mistakes machine into a…well, a somewhat slightly less error-prone player who is now capable of making the routine plays. His Ultimate Zone Rating went from a -10.3 UZR/150 from 2005 to 2008, the second worst in baseball, to a much more respectable 4.6 from 2009 to this season. Perhaps the Twins front office need to have someone like Paul Molitor on-staff fulltime to guide players like Plouffe and Tsuyoshi Nishioka which may help them reap the same dividends that it did for the Brewers and Weeks.

Since his dunderheaded play in Anaheim back on September 4, Plouffe has been the epitome of someone lacking focus and it has shown both at the plate and in the field. Perhaps starting with that mental error and compounded by the realization that he is auditioning for a starting role next year has snowballed into this two week mess for him. Whatever the reason, Plouffe, like the rest of the Twins, need this season to come to a merciful close so they can reboot and refocus for 2012.

Better days should be ahead for both. 

Focus on the future

While most of the season has provided little redeeming quality for Twins fans, there remains at least one positive take away from this horrific year of baseball in Minnesota: a top five draft pick in 2012.

The unfortunate flipside to that is that this upcoming draft class does not have a Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper, players who are expected to have a substantial and immediate impact for their team. In fact, as ESPN.com’s prospect guru Keith Law notes, the next draft class might be one of the thinnest in years.

Right now, many mock draft sites are projecting Stanford’s six-foot-four right-handed starter Mark Appel as the likely number one overall pick in 2012. Unlike the aforementioned Strasburg, Appel does not have the gaudy strikeout totals. Whereas Strasburg maintained strikeout rates well above the 12.0 K/9 mark, Appel has hovered around the 7.0 K/9 mark thus far in his colligate career. Even the Twins more recent high draft picks such as Alex Wimmers and Kyle Gibson held strikeout rates above 10.0 in their college careers. To fans who have grown tired of pitch-to-contact types the organization has selected, Appel’s selection would likely disappoint.

Still, the lanky-built Appel tosses mid-90’s two-seam fastballs (but was hitting 99 in the spring) and a solid slider that has impressed scouts. Allan Simpson, founder of Baseball America, ranked Appel as the top pitcher in the prestigious Cape Cod League this past summer as he struck out 15 and walked just one in 12 innings of work. In the video clip of him, you will see a long-arm action, a fastball that runs at the last minute and a sharp slider that drops off the table fairly quick:

Another arm that is mentioned within the top five regularly is high school phenom Lucas Giolito. Giolito, a senior at North Hollywood Harvard-Westlake (CA), is a six-foot-six, 220 pounds beast and the teenaged right-hander throws 94 while touching 96.3 during the Area Code Games - the midsummer showcase for the nation’s top high school talent.

While the fastball has plenty of life and his 12-to-6 curveball is respectable (he hooks his hand just a bit in the clips potentially giving away the pitch), his deliberate and plodding mechanics could use some polishing. Although they are very repeatable, similar to Kyle Gibson’s mechanics, Giolito has some wasted motion as he lifts his leg and then lowers it almost straight down before driving forward. Engaging his legs more in his delivery would take some pressure off of his arm.

Across the country from Giolito in Tampa, Florida is another touted prep arm in Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers Jr - a six-foot-two, 200 pound righty - had shown a 97 miles-an-hour as a 16 year old and was recently gunned at a Perfect Game event this past August at 100 miles-an-hour.

The problem with McCullers Jr, who currently attends the same high school that the Twins drafted Brad Radke from and is the son of former major league pitcher Lance McCullers, is that although he clearly has a power arm he also has some bumpy mechanics . More specifically, he struggles with landing his front foot consistently which translates into control issues. Because of this, you have to wonder if he would wind up more of a project in the minors with a risk of following the same path as 2008 draft pick, Shooter Hunt.

Meanwhile, in terms of offense, Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero seems to be the best available among position players. This past draft, the Twins selected North Carolina infielder Levi Michael who, by most metrics, was a slightly better hitter than Marrero.

Player Name	Slashes	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO
Deven Marrero	.319/.354/.444	798	51	207	30	66	14	3	2	20	10	5	13	29
Levi Michael	.289/.434/.434	868	65	242	53	70	14	3	5	48	15	1	49	47

Michael, however, is not nearly the glove man that Marrero is at short. While he played short in his final season at UNC after manning both second and third, at least one scout projects that Michael will shift back to second base. Part of the reason is his arm. During the 2008 Perfect Game competitions, Michael was clocked as throwing 85 miles-per-hour across the diamond. For a comparison, Tsuyoshi Nishioka supposedly throws in the mid-80s from short. At the same event, Marrero was registering 93 on the gun. Aside from his arm, Marrero has been lauded for his overall defense in the field. After being labeled the Cape Cod League’s best prospect by Baseball America, his coach said this about the young man:

“He’s the best defensive player I’ve ever seen at 19, 20 years of age. Walt Weiss was pretty darn good, but this young man –I’ve never seen anybody who could get his feet in the right position almost all the time. If for any reason he doesn’t get his feet in the right position, he has the ability to get his hands in the right place, and understand the speed of the runner. I think he’s Omar Vizquel at 20.”

So even though the Twins drafted a shortstop this season (and two more within the first ten rounds), because of the system’s lack of true shortstop talent combined with this year’s defensive ineptitude, targeting someone like Marrero - who has shown high caliber play at the position - makes plenty of sense.

Another position that the Twins have a need within the system is at catcher. Certainly, with Joe Mauer signed through, you know, infinity, there isn’t a pressing need yet we witnessed the glaring hole created when he was hurt and unable to catch, so the front office should be considering some insurance policy. Florida’s Mike Zunino might be that kind of option. Armed with plenty of pop (19 home runs and a .674 slugging percentage in 2011), if Mauer ever needs to move on a more permanent basis to another position in the next few years, having someone like Zunino ready in 2014 or 2015 may help ease the transition. 

Hughes the Force, Luke

Out of options next season, infielder Luke Hughes has certainly made the most of his late season audition so far.

Never considered a blue chip prospect in the minors, Hughes garnered attention in 2008 when he had what some viewed as his Great Leap Forward – hitting .309/.369/.524 with 18 home runs split between New Britain and Rochester. That fanfare would not last long as he would be sidelined with various ailments, including a hernia that required season-ending surgery in 2010.

Even if he isn’t a touted prospect, Hughes definitely has shown a decent enough right-handed bat and utility capabilities in the field that would propel him upwards to Minnesota. Playing in parts of April, May, June and July this season, he had been tasked with manning second, first, third and some occasional DH duties. Although the defense has been adequate enough, offensively Hughes had been hit-or-miss. Over the course of his first 198 plate appearances in 2011 he posted a .233/.296/.317 batting line with nine extra base hits - three of which were home runs.

Judging from that performance, there was nothing to suggest that Hughes’ ceiling was anything more than a utility player or platoon bat…in Triple-A.

Meanwhile, since his recall in August he has provided the Twins’ lineup with what is becoming an exceedingly rare source of wallop. His contact rate is still down, as evidence by his 14 strikeouts in 44 plate appearances, but when he does connect he is packing a punch. In August, he has collected 10 hits, seven of which have gone for extra bases while four of those had left the yard.

This is not just a four-game phenomenon either. In his last 10 games in Rochester prior to being recalled, Hughes mashed to the tune of .333/.366/.641 with seven extra base hits – two home runs - in 41 plate appearances.

When there is a sudden onslaught of power, it does not surprise me to discover that there are some modifications that accompany the surge. For Hughes, those modifications start with his hand set-up – elevating his bat position to his head-level and holding the bat almost parallel to the ground.

Here we see a front view of his set-up of his new stance followed by the pre-demotion one:

 

Some regular readers may recall that this is the same adjustment that Delmon Young made back in June. Heading into the early June Texas series in which he made his changes, Young was hitting just .219/.250/.271 with six extra base hits in 164 plate appearances. From that point forward until he was traded to Detroit, Young hit .313/.360/.447 with 14 extra base hits in 161 plate appearances so you can see how the tinkering helped tap back into Young’s power vein.

Another component of this retooling is that Hughes has reduced his weight transfer on to his back leg. In the first clip from June we find Hughes making a significant shift from his front leg to his back one when loading up for his swing. Because of this, you see that his head changes planes:   

When hitters show this kind of instability it means that they wind up hitting the top of the baseball more than desired. For the first several months of the season, Hughes had a high groundball rate helping verify that this may have been influencing his game.

Fast forward to August and this highlight demonstrates why Hughes’ alteration is critical adjustment in the hitting process. In it we see a very stable backside – there is little front-to-back shift in his body when loading up. This keeps his head still and on one plane: 

The result of this has been a better line of vision leading to square contact – and a big increase in line drives and fly balls.

It is difficult to tell if Hughes can maintain this pace. Mechanical changes can have sustained results (as Curtis Granderson and Jose Bautista have proven) or a temporary boost (as Delmon Young has shown time and again). The difference is a player’s ability to select the right pitches and demonstrate some patience. For his minor league career, Hughes has not shown a high aptitude for drawing walks. Likewise, scouts and pitchers will begin to find a combination that might slow a hitter’s hot streak down – be it a heavy dose of breaking stuff or fastballs in on the hands – and Hughes has yet to be tested.  

Quick Hits: Slowey's outing, Valencia's defense, Hughes' adjustments

Despite a promising outing from Kevin Slowey (7 innings, 6 hits, 2 earned runs with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts), the Twins starter managed to induce only two swing-and-misses the entire evening.  Admittedly, his mechanics look much better than they did thorough 2010 but I will always wonder if his wrist surgery will influence his ability to throw a decent slider – perhaps an explanation for why his swinging strike rate has dropped from a pre-surgery rate of 8.7% to 6.5% ever since including a low 3.3% this year. At this point, with the starting rotation in shambles, Slowey should get an ample opportunity to audition for a spot next season.

It had been 105 plate appearances since the last time Tsuyoshi Nishioka drew a walk before coaxing one off the otherwise precision-geared Mark Buerhle in the top of the third inning on Monday. It’s just another tidbit that illuminates how overmatched Nishioka has been at the plate.

In the eighth inning of last night’s game, Dayan Viciedo knocked a soft chopper between the mound and Danny Valencia. Because of the pace of the ball, Valencia needed to make a play on the run while charging across the diamond. Instead of fielding the ball, Valencia muffed it, allowing Alexei Ramirez to score when the ball trickled away. While the Twins pitchers absorb the brunt of it, the infield defense is one of the more substantial reasons the staff has seen a significant spike in ERA over last year. Going around the horn, the infield has seen a big jump in the amount of plays made – including going from saving 10 runs in 2010 to giving away 21 runs in 2011, the second-lowest total in baseball, at third base.

Luke Hughes who has had a sudden power surge, going 5-for-10 with a double and three home runs in the past three games, has made a slight mechanical adjustment (how much do I like pointing those out?) in which he has raised his hands above his head during his pre-swing position. This is a very similar adjustment to what Delmon Young did back in June (only to drop it for several series and then pick it up again). Reviewing MiLB.com’s video archives, this appears to be a change that Hughes made after he was sent back down to Rochester at the end of July. It has certainly worked well for him as prior to his recall he had 13-for-39 with four doubles and a pair of home runs in his previous 10 games before being summoned to the Twins.

After giving up 5 or more runs in 16 of the past 24 games prior to Sunday’s game against Detroit, the Twins pitching staff now has two consecutive games of holding opponents to three runs. Is it a coincidence that Rene Rivera was behind the plate the past two games?