Opening Day and Quick Review

As I ready myself for the home opener (i.e. paint my face and put on my Twins unitard), I replayed the final play of the Twins/White Sox series several times to figure out, you know, just what the hell happened. Here is a list of things that should be noteworthy as the play unfolded:

(1) Juan Pierre has a historically bad arm. Last year his arm was -2 runs defensive (10th worst in MLB). According to the Fans Scouting Report at InsideTheBook.com, Pierre’s arm strength rating of 1.3 (out of 5) was the second-worst among left fielders, ahead of only Johnny Damon. Given the play deep against the USCellular wall, Pierre has to make (1a) a very strong throw and (1b) a very accurate throw.

 

(2) The infield defense was pulled around to the right for the Thome shift. Not a lot of teams work on cut offs from this alignment. If anything, you could bet there would be some sort of defensive breakdown under a scenario like that. The shortstop, Alexi Ramirez, who was supposed to be the cut on a ball hit to left field, was actually near center field. The third baseman, Mark Teahan, broke for third base then back out to the outfield to position himself for a cut. "I've never been on a team where the third baseman was the relay man in left-center," Hardy said. "That's what's weird about it."

Ullger admitted that he was not focused on Teahan, he was looking at (3) Alexi Ramirez, the designated cut-off man in that situation, who for the record, has what is considered an inaccurate arm. The human fungo bat committed six throwing errors last year and was scouted by the fans as having a 2.6 rating for arm accuracy. That, coupled with being completely out-of-position, makes it easier to keep that arm windmilling around for Hardy.

Only it wasn’t Ramirez who was fielding the relay, it was Mark Teahan and (4) Teahan has an absolute rocket for an arm. So now, 120 feet away from home plate, Teahan is lining up to receiving a cut from Pierre. At this point, Hardy is just about to round third when it is apparent that Pierre’s throw will reach Teahan and not careen off into the stands or skip up to him. Ullger can see this. It is developing right in front of him. Only, he’s looking towards Ramirez who is nowhere near the throw. Teahan fields it cleanly right as Hardy is pushing off third base and readies a throw to home. Reviewing the video, it is clear this is the point where Ullger realizes what has actually happened and wanders on to the playing surface (I thought he was going to try for the interception).

 

All this should probably be moot because (5) JJ Hardy is not fast. Still, with two outs, how isn’t Hardy already rounding second by the time the ball lands? Is he THAT slow? Truthfully, he might be. He’s gone from first to home on just a handful of occasions in his career. He doesn’t steal bases. According to the BillJamesOnline.net player profile, Hardy’s running skills are in the 11th percentile. That’s slow. At the same time, Thome's shot was on a rope so it is hard to get up to speed as quickly as the ball traveled (not to mention, Pierre was playing just a few steps short of the warning track anyways).

But at the same time (6) Nick Punto was due up next. Coming into the game, Punto was 2-for-12 and a 1-for-4 lifetime hitter off of Bobby Jenks. With just Alexi Casilla  – who was going to have to go in for Thome in the event of a tie – and Drew Butera remaining on the bench, there was no other option to face Jenks with two outs. In retrospect, yeah, letting Punto have a shot at driving in one or more runs wasn't such a bad option. 

Back on the Crain gang.

On Thursday night Jesse Crain faced four batters. After allowing Hideki Matsui to reach on a single he then proceeded to strike out Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera and Howie Kendrick on three sliders that were so indescribably nasty, it was something that even the guys from Jersey Shore wouldn't sleep with. 

Since a demotion to Rochester mid-season last year, Crain has re-established himself as a force in the Twins bullpen. After being recalled in July, Crain finished the season throwing 34 innings with a 2.91 ERA and a 30/15 K/BB ratio while not allowing a home run in that duration. This season, armed with several adjustments to his throwing style, the righty has picked up where he left off. In fact, judging from his 2.2 innings where he has allowed just one hit while striking out four in the young season, I'd venture to say he's even better than that - particularly with this improved out-pitch.

Using pitchF/X, we see several differences in Crain's slider from late last year to his first pair of outings this year:

 

Crain's slider	Count	Vel.(mph)	Vertical	Horizontal	Whiff
9/1-10/6/09	72	87.7	2.81	2.76	15.3%
4/2010	13	83.6	-1.28	2.14	23.1%

 

First, Crain has reduced the velocity - shaving off 4-mph and leading to a 10-mph difference from his fastball.  Last year's model only gave opponents a 6-mph difference. This differential will not only improve the breaking pitch but also quicken his fastball. Secondly, the current upgrade demonstrated a greater vertical drop with less horizontal movement, potentially incited more missed bats and groundballs. 

The chart below, lifted from brooksbaseball.net, shows us how pitchF/X pitches are identified using their vertical and horizontal breaks. The fastballs and changeups have little vertical movement (in fact, with the backspin, fastballs typically rise) while the cutter through the curveball run the spectrum of horizontal and vertical movement: 

Using what was identified as Crain's slider from September 1st until the end of the season, we find that his slider fits neatly within the general area accepted to be a slider's spin:

However, when we compare that to the movement of this year's slider, we see that the points do not fall as readily into that area:

The vertical drop bleeds into the area that is typically assigned a curveball yet there is not enough horizontal break to label the pitch a "slurve". The reason it was not categorized as a curveball in Crain's case is because Crain throws his bender at 74-mph. 

This is a significant change in his slider. It could be that this speed variance and the break alteration are a byproduct of his reworked mechanics or a result of Crain staying back on more instead of rushing through his motion. Another possibility is that is an a newly introduced hybrid pitch. Whatever explanation the discrepancy between the two versions may be, the results thus far have been terrific. 

A look at Hardy's new mechanics

 

When the Twins acquired JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez, they assumed a product in Hardy who had offensive potential but was in need of repair. Baseball-Intellect.com's Alex Eisenberg documented this mechanical digression over the past several seasons. Essentially, Hardy attempted to make adjustments in 2009, beginning to bar his arm out in a more pronounced fashion (keeping his front arm straight instead of bending at the elbow) in addition to a very time-consuming leg-kick (lifting his leg, back in with a tap, then forward again). Visual evidence of this swing is seen below:

 

His numbers dropped substantially across the board. His wOBA dropped from .355 to .292. Holes in his swing were prevalent. This longer swing kept the shortstop from turning on pitches with much authority. In 2008, Hardy turned on 58% of pitches thrown inside, pulling them to left field with power (.969 slugging). A year later, he was yanking only 49% of inside pitches with a significant decrease in his power capabilities (.526 slugging).

 

Hardy Pitched Inside:	Pulled%	Slugging Pct On Pitches Pulled
2009	49%	.526
2008	58%	.969
2007	69%	.729

 

You can see from the animation above that Hardy's tardy swing forces him to fight off the fastball inside instead of turning on it. 

 

When the Twins acquired him, they realized there were corrections that needed to be made. According to assistant GM Rob Antony the Twins had Joe Vavra dig into Hardy's problems. His conclusions were the same: long swing, arm barring out. Spring training was a process of ironing out these kinks and implementing an improved mechanical system was unveiled in Anaheim. Hardy has closed his stance a bit, removed the added toe-tap in his stride and added a bend in his elbow. All this in conjunction has quickened his swing and moved him through the hitting zone rapidly:

 

This faster swing has gotten Hardy to open up his hips more when attacking the pitch: 

 

As you can tell from the top image, Hardy is still back while the pitch is almost at to the hitting zone. In the lower image, Hardy is driving towards the ball, already moving his hips and upper body towards to zone. This is a stark contrast from the above image in which Hardy is still loaded.  

Through three games, Hardy is 4-for-12 with two home run. While his contact rate needs improvement, this is a step in the right direction for the 27-year-old. Like Kelsie Smith noted in the Pioneer Press this morning, the early returns are favorable for the newest Twins shortstop. "I shortened up my swing; my stance is a lot different. My hands aren't as far away from my body as they were in '09, which makes it a lot easier to get to the ball." Hardy told Smith after Wednesday's game. "It was a full year of creating bad habits, and it's taken some time to get rid of them, but I feel like I'm on the right path." 

This certainly bodes well for him and an swift return to his pre-2009 performance level.

 

OtB Opening Day Notes

Denard Span had a rough first night, going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts. After taking 8 pitches in a decent plate appearance to start the game, Span struck out looking, then swinging in the 3rd and again in the 7th. It was his first game with three or more strikeouts since his 0-for-4 four strikeout night against Detroit on September 20th, 2009. 

Likewise, Scott Baker's night began shaky - perhaps because of nerves or excitement. His first inning was littered with erratic offerings, missing wildly with his fastball and curve. I tweeted during the game that his release point was wandering that inning. As a result, his slider and other off-speed offerings stayed up in the zone. 

Here is a pitch type map of last night (note the orange square for slider):

Here is a pitch type map for an October 1st, 2009 start (note the orange square for slider):

Obviously, Baker works up in the zone regularly with his fastball but his slider is typically down in the zone when he is on (as you can see above in his 10/1/09 outing against Detroit). Last night, Angels hitters were able to sit on fastball. In fact, his confidence in his other pitches waned so much that at one point in the 5th inning, Baker threw 10-straight fastballs, mixed in a change-up before throwing two more fastballs to Hideki Matsui that resulted in an RBI single.

Mauer struck out looking in the 3rd inning. In 2009, Mauer struck out looking 11 times. 

Delmon Young's first home run of the season - as Darren Wolfson noted last night - was equal to his April and May production combined last year. What stood out to me, even before he took that swing, was Young was using the same mechanics from his second-half of the 2009 season. As I documented in December, Young's new muted leg kick was helping him elevate the ball more leading to more home runs. Unfortunately, within the same game, we also witnessed why Young will continue to be frustrating. After Angels reliever Fernando Rodney opened the 8th inning with four-consecutive balls to Michael Cuddyer then proceeded to fall behind Jason Kubel, Young hacked at the first pitch that was out of the zone, rolling it over for an inning-ending double play.

Speaking of Rodney, the Angels signed him to a two-year, $11 million contract this offseason, to see his fastball reach 90.3-mph last night. This is a 5-mph decrease from last October when he was chucking his heat at 95.4-mph. 

Would the committee approach be more effective?

 

On Friday, Ron Gardenhire officially disbanded the closer-by-committee. KARE 11’s Dave Schwatz relayed the decision on Twitter, noting that the manager had anointed Jon Rauch his closer to at least begin the 2010 season. Rauch’s resume, which has closer experience listed, gave him the edge over the other internal applicants. At the same time, Rauch’s work history is not without its warts.

On Saturday, Darren Wolfson inquired with baseball analytical guru Jonah Keri what his preference would be: Committee or moving forward with Rauch?  Keri told Wolfson that he favored the committee in theory but went on to say that “the challenge of that approach is that requires all pitchers to be ready to go at any time, as opposed to now where everyone can have a set routine, not only for the closer but also the designated 7th and 8th inning guys.”

The decision to entrust one pitcher versus the committee approach gives the Twins a stabilized bullpen routine and limits the need for management at the end of the game but at the same time, using just one might not be the most optimal use of the resources, particularly if none of them are of Nathan’s caliber. Unlike Nathan, all of the other four candidates listed (Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain) have various flaws in their game in different situations. For example, Guerrier has been crushed by the heart of the order whereas Rauch has been very effective in retiring the three-four-five hitters the past two seasons. Meanwhile, when runners are on base, Rauch has been smacked around at a higher clip while Mijares and Guerrier have been able to work out of those types of jams with relative ease.

The follow is a cheat sheet of six scenarios that Ron Gardenhire can print out and post in the dugout based on the past two seasons worth of data to traverse the 8^th or 9^th inning in 2010 that will ensure the most favorable matchups:

What if the heart of the order – the opposing team’s three, four and five hitters – were due up?

	Batters Faced	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	217	.831
Mijares, Jose	96	.673
Rauch, Jon	199	.695
Crain, Jesse	160	.823

When facing theoretically the three best hitters in an opponent’s lineup, Matt Guerrier has been the one subjected to the most punishment. In addition to holding the highest OPS among the four the past two years, he’s also allowed 13 home runs, 11 doubles and a triple. Mijares on the other hand, has had the least amount of battle damage, yet his 96 matchups are by far the fewest bringing sample size into question. Still, he’s struck out the highest percentage (24%) but five if his 19 hits allowed were of the very long ball variety. At the same time, Rauch has almost duplicated Mijares’s OPS in twice the matchups while allowing just three home runs leading to the lowest slugging percentage against (.376).

Use: Jon Rauch. In the past two seasons, Rauch has been one of the best when facing the opposing team’s best hitters. He may not have the strikeout capability that Nathan or Mijares have but he’s very effective at getting outs.

A left-handed heavy portion of the lineup is due up in the ninth, who do you call on?

	Batters Faced	Out%	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	250	69.2	.655
Mijares, Jose	130	77.7	.460
Rauch, Jon	293	67.8	.731
Crain, Jesse	187	69.6	.834

Naturally, Mijares is the guy if you have not already spent him in the 7^th or 8^th inning. Portside opponents have hit just .153 off of him while touching him for just four extra base hits since 2008. Perhaps a little surprising, the next best alternative is Matt Guerrier. Guerrier allows a high amount of contact but it mostly results in harmless groundballs (54.7%) off of the bat. Rauch, meanwhile, gives up far too many fly balls leading to a .409 slugging percentage against as they drift into the bleachers.

Use: Jose Mijares/Matt Guerrier. Mijares might be another interesting closer option later in the year if the Twins are willing to give Ron Mahay some LOOGY responsibilities freeing Mijares up for save situations. Guerrier incites plenty of groundballs off of left-handed bats – a perfect use for the new and improved middle infield as well as giving Mijares a night off.

A righty-heavy portion of the lineup is due up in the ninth, who do you call on?

	Batters Faced	Out%	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	404	69.5	.725
Mijares, Jose	160	67.7	.734
Rauch, Jon	308	75.0	.732
Crain, Jesse	160	69.6	.677

At first blush, Rauch appears ideal – he’s retired 75% of right-handed opponents faced since ’08 – however, righties have shown that they can tag him pretty hard too. In that time, they have hit nine home runs and another 15 for extra bases. With a one or two-run lead, that could become a problem. Guerrier’s another choice but, once again, susceptible to the occasional home run.

Use: Surprisingly, Crain is the best use of resources – assuming the righties are not in the heart-of-the-order (which is Rauch territory), consider deploying Crain. In addition to the miserly home run allowed totals, performing well against same-sided opponents is about the one thing Crain had working for him.

Who is going to navigate out of trouble once runners are on base?

	Batters Faced	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	300	.672
Mijares, Jose	141	.538
Rauch, Jon	265	.773
Crain, Jesse	257	.722

Mijares is the best option if runners end up on base. He’s allowed just three home runs with a total of six extra base hits resulting in a slugging percentage of .279. This is nearly .100 points lower than Crain and Guerrier who both turned in a .371 slugging percentage allowed. Furthermore, Guerrier is a front-runner for Mr. Idaho because he was chock full o’ taters. With runners on base, he’s allowed 10 home runs since ‘08. Likewise, Rauch, who was tightfisted with the dingers when facing the heart of the order, allowed seven home runs in a total of 21 extra base hits for a .445 slugging percentage allowed.  Still, if you are looking to get a groundball for that all-important double play, Guerrier leads the pack with a 43.7% groundball rate.

Use: If you find yourself in a predicament with either Rauch or Crain on the mound, quickly break glass and bring in Jose Mijares. Short of that, Matt Guerrier’s the next in line.

Runner on third, less than two outs. Who will keep the hitter from lofting that sacrifice fly and keep the tying/go-ahead run stranded?

	Batters Faced	GB%	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	36	66.7	.694
Mijares, Jose	17	0.0	.891
Rauch, Jon	34	22.2	1.084
Crain, Jesse	28	19.0	1.029

Clearly within this small sample Guerrier is the superior pitcher. His ability to keep opponents from getting any elevation has led to a good 76.7% left-on-base rate since 2008. Mijares’s is just the opposite of Guerrier – no, that zero is not a typo – he’s not induced any groundball contact. Similar to his experience with runners on base above, Rauch has struggled in this scenario. Not only does he hold a .360 average (9-for-25), 13 of the 27 balls in play were considered “well hit”. Crain too was another victim of abuse, carrying a 71.2% left-on-base rate the past two seasons, because of a .450 average (9-for-20) with a runner on third.

Use: Matt Guerrier. His ability to keep the ball on the ground and retire hitters works well in this circumstance.

Alex Rodriguez is up representing the tying run. Who do you call in?

	Matchups	Results	Outcome
Guerrier, Matt	3	2-for-2	HR, 2B, BB
Mijares, Jose	0	-	-
Rauch, Jon	2	1-for-1	1B, BB
Crain, Jesse	4	0-for-3	BB

In the most miniscule of sample sizes, Crain holds an advantage by not allowing a hit at all in the past two seasons.  Over his career, Crain has tangled with the Yankee superstar 13 times and allowed just one hit (a single). You almost have to keep calling his number until Rodriguez proves he can get to him too.

Use: Jesse Crain. Then pray to the gods of small sample size this works.