Did The Twins Screw Up By Signing Kubel?

    Both Dave Cameron (Fangraphs) and Rob Neyer (ESPN) seem flabbergasted that the Twins signed Jason Kubel to such a lucrative deal.  Cameron's solution would have been to cut Kubel loose and then sign 30-year-old Eric Hinske to a one-year, $1 million-to-$2 million dollar contract the Pittsburgh Pirates are soon to close with the former Rookie of the Year. 

 

Cameron writes "Compare that to Hinske (the guy who had to settle for a one year deal as a role player on a terrible team) - the offensive skillset is practically identical, but Hinske can actually play a competent 1B/OF. The offensive difference in their CHONE projections add up to 2-3 runs over a full season, but the defensive gap is clearly much larger. It’s hard to make a case that Kubel > Hinske."

 

Likewise, Neyer states "Hinske was worth around $9 million last year; Kubel was worth around $2 million. That difference is due largely to the fact that Hinske can play the outfield passably, while Kubel is (or should be) restricted exclusively to DH duties"

 

In the strict GMsian sense, both Cameron and Neyer have an argument.  They are analyzing this in a pure "cog-for-the-machine" sense of designing a roster.  Hinske is cheaper part and has the potential to provide similar output with the added caveat of defense if necessary.  The problem with the two writers' proposals as outsiders to the Twins organization is that the Twins are not interested in the defensive part of the equation.  Certainly a more enlightened franchise (Seattle, Boston) might weigh the added benefit of having a player on the roster that could stand in with serviceable defense but as it stands, the Twins have four outfielders ahead of anyone else on the outfield depth chart, so the focus revolves around the offense provided. 

 

Last year, the 30-year-old left-handed batting Hinske hit .247/.333/.465 with 20 home runs and 88-to-47 K-to-BB ratio in 432 plate appearances while playing corner outfield for the Rays.  Comparatively, the 26-year-old left-handed batting Jason Kubel hit .272/.335/.471 with 20 home runs and 91-to-47 K-to-BB ratio in 517 plate appearances while being used as a designated hitter.  Very similar, right?  On top of that, both have been treated like a platoon candidate over the duration of their careers.  Where Hinske has seen 78% of his plate appearances against right-handed pitchers (hitting .264/.347/.458), Kubel has seen 81% of his plate appearances against the right-handed variety (hitting .275/.327/.464). 

 

There should be consideration towards the trajectory of their 2008 season to put their final numbers into context.  Hinske opened the season white-hot, batting .292/.407/.639 with six home runs in 86 plate appearances with a solid 14 walks to 12 strikeouts.  From May 1st through September, Hinske hit .236/.315/.424 with 14 home runs in 346 plate appearances while walking just 33 more times and striking out 76 times.  His numbers were buttressed by a torid first month of the year.  In his initial month, Kubel hit .237/.257/.381 with four home runs and a putrid three walks to 20 strikeouts in 101 plate appearances.  As Kubel's season progressed and he was given a regular spot as the DH when Craig Monroe was released, Kubel hit a much sturdier .281/.353/.495 with 16 home runs in 416 plate appearances while walking 44 times and striking out 71 times.  If you use this as an indicator for future performance, Kubel's season shows progression while Hinske's shows wear. 

 

Furthermore, Kubel has made growth in proving that he can be used as an everyday player and not just a platoon partner.  The Twins gave Kubel more exposure to left-handed pitchers (22% of his at bats) and was somewhat useful hitting .232/.330/.374.  Hinske, on the other hand, was an extreme platoon player with only 12% of his plate appearances against lefties where he hit just .143/.263/.224.  There is value in having someone that kills a rally if a LOOGY is brought in.

  

The truth is that Kubel is just reaching his peak season and will be playing  his best baseball (in theory) in the next several years.  Meanwhile, at 31 in 2009, Hinske will see his numbers drop, both offensively and defensively, as he ages towards obscurity. 

 

 

Odds. Ends. (01.27.09)

• The Hardball Times 2009 Season Preview finally went to the printers this week and will begin shipping next week.  Editor David Gassko posted a nice run-down on what you will receive if you purchase the book, which I highly recommend and not just because I wrote the Twins section.  There are many great contributors that helped make this book possible and The Hardball Times is always one of the frontrunners when it comes to baseball analysis (and unlike some baseball websites, their content is always free of charge).  Order your copy today.     
  
• Fangraphs's Marc Hulet wrote a piece reflecting back on the Johan Santana trade.  Hulet's understated conclusion is that the trade hasn't gone as well as the Twins hoped it would have.  In general, trading one superstar player for a handful of players typically fails.  Bill James determined in his 1988 Abstract that "Talent in baseball is not normally distributed.  It is a pyramid.  For every player who is 10% above the average player, there are probably 20 players who are 10% below the average."  (There are the exceptions to that Jamesian rule: Giants GM Brian Sabean figured this out when he accepted A.J. Pierzynski for three players.)  Essentially, it is hard to replace the superstar that is Johan Santana, which is why none of the three pitchers (Humber, Mulvey and Guerra) will provide the type of innings that Santana did.  Most analysts tend to focus on Carlos Gomez when deciding the victor of this trade.  Gomez contains the largest likelihood for R.O.I.  Subtly, Gomez's presence in centerfield (+32) probably shaved off runs from Slowey (44% fb%) and Baker's (45.7% fb%) overall totals.  This should not be taken lightly, however, that isn't as easy to measure as say, a .657 OPS and therefore easier to deem it a bad trade.   An improvement in his offensive production in the next several seasons coupled with one of the three pitchers emerging as a significant contributer could swing the trade into the realm of acceptable.  What should be understood at this point is that none of the three will provide production on a Johan Santana scale. 

 

• Of all the manuvers Royals GM Dayton Moore made this offseason, signing Zack Greinke to a 4-year, $38M contract is head-and-shoulders the best.  Though known for mental issues that sidelined him in 2006 for the majority of the year, Greinke emerged in 2008 as one of the top young starters in the game.  The 25-year-old threw 202.1 innings while striking out 183 and walking just 56 for a FIP of 3.56.  The Royals have purchased Greinke's first two free agent years (2011, 2012) but all indications suggest that Greinke should be as effective at 28 and 29.  Even though the Royals called on Greinke at the tender age of 20, he rarely threw more than 100 pitches in a start.  This was also true in his 2005 season.  By taking the year off in 2006 and working mostly out of the bullpen in 2007, Greinke has protected his arm from the abuse that a lot of young pitchers on poor teams suffer (see: Radke, Brad).  Rany Jayazerli at Baseball Prospectus developed a system of monitoring "Pitcher Abuse Points" or PAP.  In short, going from research conducted by Craig Wright, Jayazerli expounded upon the notion that it is not the amount of pitches a pitcher throws that results in injuries, but rather it is throwing with a fatigued arm.  Consider Mark Prior, for example.  At age 22 in 2003, Prior would often throw more than 130 pitches in a game, averaging 113 pitches per start.  At age 21 in 2005, Greinke made 33 starts and only threw over 110 pitches twice (111) and averaged 93 pitches per start.  Because Greinke avoided both throwing all together and amassing a hefty pitch count at an early stage in his career, he is now a solid candidate to pitch well into his 30s while flameouts like Prior attempt to make a comeback with the Padres. 

 

• I received a spattering of emails (read: three) inquiring which side of the fence I actually stood when it came to signing Joe Crede in response to the article posted yesterday.  It may have been a bit ambiguous. I do believe that depending on the terms of the contract, Crede could wind up a bargain free agent.  What I do not believe is that Crede will replicate his totals if the Twins acquire him based upon the disadvantage that a right-handed batter has in the Metrodome.  Fans should put that into perspective.  Rondell White befell the same fate.  At Comerica, White found the seats every 24.4 at bats (7 HR in 171 AB at home).  Comerica's left field power alley is 10 feet closer to home than the Metrodome.  The Twins brought him in and White hit a home run every 34.4 at bats at the Dome (4 HR in 153 AB).  The Dome squelches the majority of right-handed power hitters.  That said, I highly respect Crede's glovework -- enough to compensate for his low on-base percentage -- and if the Twins think his back is healthy enough to play 130 games, I'm for it. 

 

• The Star Tribune's Jim Souhan recently took the time to solve the Twins' third base woes: move Michael Cuddyer back to third.  Number one, this resolves the vacancy at third at the same time it does alleviate the logjam of an outfield.  Souhan's argument involves not having to spend money or players in acquiring a working part that could play third.  On the surface, this proposition makes sense.  Cuddyer has a history of playing third base (after being drafted as a shortstop) and, all things considered, third base is only one position back up the Defensive Spectrum from right field (DS: 1B -- LF -- RF -- 3B -- CF -- 2b -- SS).  But the problem lies in that Cuddyer will be 30 in 2009, the defensive spectrum is not kind to outfielders that are converted back to third basemen.  Steven Goldleaf conducted a study that suggested nearly 75% of all attempts to reconvert outfielders to third basemen fail.  Cuddyer's age is pulling him to the left on on the spectrum -- accept that Jim. 

 

• TwinsFest sounds like a resounding success as the total number of patrons exceeded 31,000 -- the third-highest total behind 2007 which saw 35,000 visitors at the Dome following a miraculous comeback season and the second-highest in 1992's crowd of 32,000 following their second World Series title.  In today's economic and below zero climate, it is surprising that the Twins have been able to maintain such interest within a team in an offseason in which the resigning of Nick Punto was the hot stove headline.  Things could be worse, you could be a Pittsburgh Pirates fan.  This past weekend, PirateFest, celebrated their all-time attendance high of 15,000 visitors to the three-day event.  After going 488-644 since 2002 (.396 winning percentage), the Pirates front office rewarded the loyal fans by signing Craig Monroe and Ramon Vazquez.   

 

Crede Considerations.

There are a few points that we should consider when discussing the potential acquisition of Joe Crede.  On the surface, Crede has the makings of a bargain value free agent that the market ignored due to health issues and low on-base percentages.  The Twins are actively in pursuit of Crede, monitoring his workouts in Arizona and negotiating with Scott Boras on the terms of a contract.  Outside of his back and the length of his deal, there are a few other things the front office should review. 

 

His upper-cut swing has become more prevalent in the past several seasons (53.7% FB% in 2008) at the expense of line drives and grounders. In an environment like Chicago, this plays well.  Flyballs, as we will see, have the tendency to seek over the wall.  Grounders on the grass infield tend to be outs where as in the Metrodome they sneak through the infield and often run gaps.  US Cellular is 330 down the left field line and 375 to the power alley in left-center.  The Metrodome requests an addition 13 feet to clear the fence down the left field foul line (343) and another 10 to reach the power alley (385).  These dimensions at the Dome punish right handed flyball hitters seeking solace of the prevailing winds and rewards a line drive, gap hitter.  Crede still has a solid power swing - most likely will be trading those home runs in Chicago for doubles (or perhaps flyouts) in Minneapolis. 

 

From March 31st until July 21st in 2008, Crede hit 17 home runs in 312 at bats -- a home run every 18.3 at-bats.  This certainly screams power and by comparison, Justin Morneau, the Twins leading home run slugger, socked 11 in 292 at bats during that same stretch.  Morneau's was a pace of a home run every 26.5 at bats.

Before declaring Crede as the better power-hitter, consider the context.  Morneau played his home games at the Metrodome which favors left-handed batters but in general suppresses runs.  In 81 Dome games, Morneau hit 12 home runs in 301 at bats - pacing for a home run every 25.0 at bats.  Away from the Dome, Morneau played in 82 games and hit 11 home runs in 322 at bats - a slower pace of 29.2 at bats between home runs.  This is a slight difference but balanced for the most part.  Conversely, Crede's power performance was inflated by playing home games at US Cellular.  In 47 games at his home field, Crede hit 11 home runs in 162 at bats - a superhuman pace of a home run every 14.7 at bats.  In 50 games outside of US Cellular, Crede hit just six home runs in 173 at bats - a more earthly home run every 28.8 at bats.  The same is true over the entire duration of his career.  While playing at US Cellular, Crede has hit a home run every 19.3 at bats; away he hits them every 25.5 at bats.  Subtract his former ballpark from the equation and one would expect his home run total to deflate.  

 

In 2008, 131 home runs were hit at the Dome in 5,283 at bats resulting in an extreme muted home run pace of one every 40.3 at bats.  US Celluler, on the other hand, witnessed 206 home runs in 5,363 at bats resulting in a home run every 26.3 at bats.  Since the Major League average was a home run hit every 34.7 at bats, this means that the Dome suppressed home run totals by 16.1% and US Cellular increased home runs by 31.9%.  The difference between exchanging US Cellular for the Dome would, on average, decrease the home run rate by 34.7%.  Therefore, Crede's home run pace at the Cell of 14.7 HR/AB would drop to 19.8 HR/AB had he spent his season in Minnesota.

 

Admittedly, this transfer to the Dome with the applied formula above would have cost Crede a measly pair of home runs since his pace was so incredible.  The forgone conclusion here is that Crede is very unlikely to repeat the pace of 14.7 home runs per at bat in 2009 regardless of where he plays.  Assuming that his impressive 14.7 HR/AB regresses to his norm of 19.3 HR/AB in 2009, we can expect that his home run rate will increase to roughly 26.0 HR/AB while playing for the Twins.  On a wag, let us say that Crede gets the exact amount of at bats in 2009 has he did in 2008 due to various ailments and platoon situations.  Instead of the 11 home runs he had in Chicago, six or seven is a more reasonable expectation to hit at the Dome.

 

This is a roundabout, convoluted way of saying Crede's home run totals will drop in 2009 so the expectation of Crede in a Twins uniform should adjust accordingly.  

Supplanting the platoon of Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris with Joe Crede does not necessarily spell an increase in offense, either.  From June 14th on, after they were anointed the starting third basemen, the Twins duo hit a very respectable .294/.346/.436 (.782 OPS) in 95 games.  Crede, playing in just 97 games, hit .248/.314/.460 (.774 OPS).  With the combination of Buscher/Harris, the Twins would average 5.177 runs per game (according to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer).  Substituting Crede and his 2008 numbers within the Analyzer and we find that the Twins would average only 5.126 runs per game - a 0.051 loss in runs generated per game.  This is far from an upgrade.  The upgrade would come in the form of defense provided. 

Signing Crede should be based upon his defense first and foremost.  When it comes to fielding his position, Joe Crede has been one of the bar none best defenders in the game.  Since 2006, Crede has converted 55 extra outs above what was expected among third basemen.  Last year he made 13 additional outs in 834 innings, fourth best among third basemen.  No platoon combination could replicate the potential glovework that a healthy Crede could supply.  The problem, as Phil Rogers notes in the Chicago Tribune, is how Crede's back will respond to playing on the artificial turf. 

 

A Solid Game Plan

Which would you rather have as a free agent member of your bullpen based on their 2008 numbers? 

 

• Reliever A: 29 yrs, 92.0 mph fastball, 55.1 innings, 39/24 K/BB and a 5.07 FIP
• Reliever B: 32 yrs, 92.1 mph fastball, 46.1 innings, 38/21 K/BB and a 6.13 FIP

   

From April 1st until June 8th, Reliever A threw 28 innings with a 20/16 K/BB ratio and a opponent batting average of .292 while accumulating an Runs Allowed Average of 6.75.  From March 31st until May 20th, Reliever B pitched 19.1 innings with a 18/16 K/BB ratio and a similar opponent batting average of .295.  During a stretch of the season, both pitchers had hiatuses from the Majors for completely separate reasons.  Reliever A returned to the Majors on July 10th and from there until the end of the season, he pitched 27.1 innings with an improved 19/8 K/BB ratio and a hefty .304 opponent batting average.  Reliever B would return to his club on July 3rd and throw 27 more innings and would also improve his efficiency, striking out 20 and walking just six as he lowered his opponent average against to .230. 

 

In regards to batted balls, both had opponents hitting the ball solidly.  Reliever A saw 21.6% of balls in play scorched as line drives while Reliever B had 23.7% of balls in play roped on a line.  According to Inside Edge's Player Report Cards, Reliever A had a higher average of well-hit balls (.286 vs .251) than Reliever B indicating that opponents were making slightly better contact against him.  Both relievers had 37% flyball rates, and both were victims of a heavy number of those aerial assaults sneaking over the fence.  Reliever A witness 11.6% of his flyballs turn into home runs while Reliever B saw an incredible 20.4% of reach the bleacher seats. 

 

When The Hardball Times released their 2009 Marcels projections (defined indepth here), both pitchers projected strikingly similar:

 

• Reliever A: 30 yrs, 59.0 innings, 45/24 K/BB and a 4.52 FIP
• Reliever B: 33 yrs, 53.0 innings, 44/22 K/BB and a 4.55 FIP

 

Reliever A recently signed a minor league deal with an American League club while Reliever B is still on the market.  Give up?  Reliever A is Juan Rincon and Reliever B is Eric Gagne. 

 

To recap, these are two very similar pitchers in the sense that they have struggled mightily in the past few season (Rincon more so with control and Gagne with health issues).  The difference is what they will command in earning potential.  The Tigers offered Rincon a minor league deal with the hopes that former Twins Minor League Pitching Instructor and now Tigers pitching coach, Rick Knapp, will iron out what he perceived as bad mechanics.  If he performs well in spring training, the Tigers may have an inexpensive solution in their bullpen.  On the other hand if Rincon flops, he will be roster filler in AAA at minimal cost.  Meanwhile, if Gagne receives the speculated one-year, $2 million dollar contract, this would make him the second-highest paid member of the Twins bullpen.  Though Gagne showed evidence of improvement in the later portion of the season, there would be better options to extend a one-year contract to, specifically former Cardinals reliever Russ Springer. 

 

• Gagne - 2008: 32 yrs, 92.1 mph fastball, 46.1 innings, 38/21 K/BB and a 6.13 FIP
• Springer - 2008: 40 yrs, 91.5 mph fastball, 50.1 innings, 45/18 K/BB and a 3.51 FIP

 

Yesterday, Seth Stohs noted that the Twins may be in negotiations for the free agent reliever.From the Twins perspective, adding Springer makes complete sense.  For starters, Springer has pitched admirably in the past two seasons with the Cardinals, throwing 116 innings with a 2.48 ERA and a 111/37 K/BB ratio.  Secondly, like the aforementioned Gagne, Springer is speculated to be in the one-year, $2-$3 million contract range but unlike Gagne, the Twins can have a level of confidence that their free agent is less of a gamble.  The aspect of Springer's game that aligns the most with the Twins is that Springer is a flyball-oriented pitcher.  In 2007, 50.6% of his batted balls went skyward.  Last year, 49.3% were elevated.  Amazingly enough, not that many found their way to the seats -- he gave up three home runs in 2007 and four in 2008. 

 

The Twins are frequently abused for not "thinking sabermetrically enough" and for their "lack of transparency".  True, the Twins may not verbalize their intentions but when you read between the lines, you can see that there is a method to the madness.  What is unsaid is that the Twins seem to recognize the fact that they have a very strong defensive outfield - at least in comparison to their infield - but especially with Gomez and Span shrinking the potential gap real estate.  In 2008, the infield had a revised zone rating of .762 (with a league average of .772 in the AL).  Their outfield had a revised zone rating of .899 (.900 being league average) and this was much improved once Span assumed right field.   At the trade deadline, the Twins bypassed groundball machine Chad Bradford and missed out on LaTroy Hawkins, who has been groundball-oriented in recent years, in favor of Eddie Guardado (over 50% of Guardado's batted balls were flyballs).  On paper the theory had merit.  Where the Guardado experiment failed was that the Twins expected a 37-year-old pitcher with history of arm troubles who had just finished throwing his highest total of innings (49.1) since 2005 to continue to pitch effectively deep into the season.  It is with this logic that makes adding Russ Springer perfect sense.  Springer and his flyball tendencies will have a fresh arm after the offseason and a reasonably priced contract that is predicated upon a plan rather than a project.

Best Season By Position

In 2003, Rob Neyer released a book entitled, "Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups".  The book dissected all of the baseball teams throughout history and Neyer submitted what he ordained as the Best Single-Season Performances for each position.  Using Baseball Musing's Lineup Analyzer, a tool that finds out how many runs per seasons a lineup would score, I decided to find out how correct (or possibly incorrect) Neyer was.   Inserting each Twins into the lineup nine times, I would be able to obtain how many runs per game the player would score if the lineup were constructed just of that player.  For example, a lineup that consisted of just 1975 Rod Carew would score 6.977 runs per game.

 

Each offensive position is listed below with both Neyer's pick and the Analyzer's pick including a small recap of the player's season and the player that had the second best season in Twins history. 

 

• First Base - Neyer: Rod Carew, 1977 | Lineup Analyzer: Carew, 1977

 

Seems like a no-brainer when you consider that Carew was near .400 the entire season and it earned him his only MVP award. 

 

1st | Rod Carew | 1977 | 1.011 OPS | 8.159 runs per game

 

At the beginning of the 1970s, the Twins migrated slugger Harmon Killebrew back to the keystone after a journey that moved him across the diamond to third to allow Rich Reese to absorb innings.  Thankfully, the Killer's bat - one that earned him an MVP award - carried him that season as he swatted 49 home runs, but provided as much range defensively as an Easter Island statute.  By 1972, injuries caught up to the 37-year-old Killer and he no longer was able to stay on the field consistently.   The Twins attempted several replacements like Joe Lis, Craig Kusick, Johnny Briggs and even future manager Tom Kelly.  The Twins decided to move second baseman Rod Carew -- who had one three straight batting titles -- to first in order to lengthen his career.  Though he lost his efforts at his fifth straight batting title in 1976 to the Royals' George Brett and Hal McRae on the last day of the season, Carew came back to produce the best season of any Twins first baseman in 1977, leading the American League in total hits (239), batting average (.388), runs (128), triples (16) and intentional walks (15).  His final batting line of .388/.449/.570 was well above that of the American League first base average of .271/.338/.441, earning him his only MVP award and his 11th consecutive All-Star appearance.  The high-octane offense of Minnesota in 1977 (1st overall in runs scored) was denied postseason berth by a bad pitching staff, whose 4.36 ERA was 12th out of 14 teams, and dropped to 4th in the American League West, 17.5 games out of first.  

 

2nd | Harmon Killebrew | 1961 | 1.011 OPS | 7.760 runs per game 
 

Killebrew helped usher baseball into the prairie land by wowing the Bloomington patrons with moonshot dingers.  The 25-year-old Idaho-native slugged 46 home runs, 29 at the Met, and finished the year with a .606 slugging percentage.  Unfortunately, his introduction to Minnesota came in the same year as the great Maris-Mantle race to 61 as well as other first baseman like Detroit's Norm Cash and Baltimore's Jim Gentile's outstanding seasons which pushed the Killer to 11th in the MVP voting despite one of his best seasons of his career.  
 

• Second Base - Neyer: Chuck Knoblauch, 1996 | Lineup Analyzer: Knoblauch, 1996 

 

Knoblauch's 1996 season essentially secured his shipment out of Minnesota, a bittersweet season in that respect.

 

1st | Chuck Knoblauch| 1996 | .965 OPS | 7.629 runs per game

 

After finished 1995 with a 56-88 record and 44 games behind the AL Central champion Indians, the Twins front office signed Paul Molitor and Greg Myers hoping to regain some competitiveness by shoring up the designated hitter and catching positions in Kirby Puckett's declining years.  Puckett, however, would never see the field in 1996 and would later retire.  In spite of the loss of Puck, the Twins would improve.  Molitor had a solid season (.341, 58 extra base hits, 119 RBI) but youngsters like Marty Cordova (.309, 16 home runs, 111 RBI), Rich Becker (.291, 12 home runs) and Scott Stahoviak (.284, 13 home runs) would be big factors in helping the Twins gain 22 games in the win-column following a dismal season.  It would be 27-year-old second baseman, Chuck Knoblauch, that would contribute the most.  While the American League's average second baseman would hit .281/.345/.404 in 1996, Knoblauch would compile a line of .341/.448/.517 adding 63 extra base hits, 45 stolen bases and 140 runs.  Overshadowed by 'roided-up mashers like Juan Gonzalez, Albert Belle, Rafael Palmeiro and an unheard of season by Brady Anderson who would all hit more than 45 home runs, Knoblauch would finish 16th in the American League MVP voting. 

 

2nd | Rod Carew | 1975 | .918 OPS | 6.977 runs per game 
 

In what turned out to be his last year as a second baseman, the 29-year-old Carew won his fourth straight AL batting title in 1975 with a .359 average. Manager Frank Quilici would begin to transition him to first base at the end of the season where he would assume the position full-time in 1976.  Carew would lead a bad Twins team (76-83, 4th AL Western) in hits (192), runs (89), doubles (24), RBIs (80), on-base (.421) and slugging percentage (.497). 

• Shortstop - Neyer: Zoilo Versalles, 1965 | Lineup Analyzer: Cristian Guzman, 2001

 

The Twins are not exactly a team that was loaded with historically good shortstops.  Yes, Versalles won the MVP in 1965 but it has frequently been contested.  I have to cough when I proclaim Guzman as the franchise's owner of best season for a shortstop in 2001, because as everybody who watched Guzzie day-in and day-out share the same frustration - he strikes out alot and walks only by gun-point.  Interestingly enough, Neyer completed disregarded Roy Smalley's arguably best performance as a Twins shortstop. 

1st | Cristian Guzman| 2001 | .814 OPS | 5.356 runs per game

 

Guzman's 2001 lone season of relevance with the Twins coincides with their first winning season since 1992.  After two seasons with little substance behind his low contact, suddenly in 2001 his batted balls found more gaps.  His strikeout rate stayed the same as his walk rate declined but his average on balls in play skyrocketed from .284 in 2000 to .343 in 2001.  This would lead to his career-best batting line to date of .302/.337/.477 adding 50 extra base hits (14 triples and 10 home runs) as well.  Considering his stats were held up by a gaudy batting average on balls in play, it is no wonder why his numbers came crashing back down to earth the following season. 

 

2nd | Roy Smalley | 1978 | .795 OPS | 5.355 runs per game 
 

Smalley barely missed hurdling Guzman for the best offensive season as a shortstop according to the Lineup Analysis, falling short by a one-hundredth of a point.  In many ways, his season was far superior.  Smalley demonstrated far more patience at the plate, walking in 12% of his plate appearances (Guzman only mustered up walks in 4%) and had far more power potential, hitting 19 home runs to lead the Twins in that category.  Contextually, Smalley's season as a shortstop was an overall better performance in comparison to the league average shortstop.  In 1978, the average shortstop hit .254/.308/.332.  The majority were of the slap-hitting mold, recruited more for their defense.  Smalley's line of .273/.362/.433 far exceeded the expectations of a shortstop.  Guzzie's 2001 season in which he hit .302/.337/.477, on the other hand, was performed in a condition in which the average shortstop hit .273/.328/.415.  So whereas Guzman was only .009 better in OBP and .062 better in SLG, Smalley was .054 better in OBP and .101 better in SLG then his counterparts. 

• Third Base - Neyer: Gary Gaetti, 1986 | Lineup Analyzer: Harmon Killebrew, 1969

 

There are a couple explanations for the discrepancy for the two conflicting choices.  For starters, the Lineup Analyzer weighs heavily for on-base percentage.  In the two years that Gaetti is cited by Neyer he had two pedestrian OBPs - .347 in 1986 and .353 in 1988.  By comparison, Killebrew had OBP of .427 in 1969 and .411 in 1970.  Neyer is probably leaning toward the gloves of which Gaetti supplied plenty and Killebrew none. 

1st | Harmon Killebrew| 1969 | 1.011 OPS | 7.921 runs per game

 

In 1969, the 33-year-old Killebrew presented possibly his best season of his illustrious career.  The Twins repositioned Killebrew back to third base for the third time in his career, he last played the hot corner regularly back in 1966.  True to his form, Killer was a defensive hack, unable to range well and making errors on balls he did get to, he more than made up for these shortcomings with his bat with a .276/.427/.584 batting line.  In what would be his lone MVP season, Killebrew played in all 162 games and led the league in home runs (49), on-base percentage (.427), RBIs (140) and walks (145).  After finished 7th in the American League in 1968, the Twins vaunted to the top of the newly formed AL West Division in 1969 - thier .599 winning percentage was only bested by Baltimore who would bounce them out of the playoffs in a highly contested three game series (the first two games were decided by one run in extra innings). 

 

2nd | Harmon Killebrew | 1970 | .975 OPS | 7.281 runs per game 
 

Killebrew followed up his MVP season with a solid encore.  In 157 games, Killebrew hit 41 home runs and drove in 113 more.  He would finish third in the MVP voting behind a cat-like Boog Powell and teammate Tony Oliva.  Once again the Twins found themselves second in the American League overall behind the Baltimore Orioles and once again the Twins made a three-game exit in the playoffs to the Earl Weaver-managed Birds.  Fans in Bloomington would witness the Orioles outscore the Twins 21-to-9 in the first two games before finishing them off in Baltimore.  Defensive problems manifested themselves for the now 34-year-old Killebrew who would go back to first base in 1971 to allow for the 23-year-old Steve Braun to handled third. 

• Left Field - Neyer: Harmon Killebrew, 1964 | Lineup Analyzer: Killebrew, 1964

 

In Twins history there has not been many hitters in Killebrew's league. It gets harder to set single-season records when Harmon played all over the diamond, too.  Only Larry Hisle (.902 OPS) and Shane Mack (.861) had comparable seasons while manning left field on a regular basis.

1st | Harmon Killebrew| 1964 | .925 OPS | 6.732 runs per game

 

In efforts to keep Vic Power and then Bob Allison in the lineup, the Twins moved Killebrew out to left.  Though slowfooted, Killebrew was decent with the glove when he could get to balls, committing just seven errors in 1,390 innings in the outfield in 1964.  The 28-year-old Killer would launch 49 home runs (1st in AL) and drive in 111 (3rd) but would strikeout 135 times (3rd). 

 

2nd | Harmon Killebrew | 1962 | .911 OPS | 6.507 runs per game 
 

Surprised that Killer would own the top four seasons for two positions?  Me neither.  After his breakout 1961 season at first, Killebrew was moved to third when the team brought in defensive wunderkind Vic Power, who was now 34-years-old.  In his book The Cool of the Evening, Jim Thielman noted that Power was essentially Doug Mientkiewicz before their was Doug Mientkiewicz -- a good glove, light hit first baseman.  While Killebrew hit 48 home runs and slugged .545 in a position he was far from suited for, Power had been hitting .290/.316/.421, well-below the league average for a first baseman (.273/.362/.454). 

• Center Field - Neyer: Kirby Puckett, 1988 | Lineup Analyzer: Puckett, 1988

 

Yup, Puckett stands alone as the best centerfielder in Twins history.  It would not be Torii Hunter who would contest Puckett's seasons as the best either, but Lymon Bostock who had an OPS of .897 in 1977.  Too bad Puck had to suffer though strike-shortened seasons.  In 1994, Puckett was hitting .317/.362/.540 with 20 home runs and 112 RBIs in 108 games.  When baseball returned in 1995, he batted .314/.379/.515 with 23 home runs in 137 of the 144 games played. 

1st | Kirby Puckett| 1988 | .920 OPS | 6.660 runs per game

 

Puckett had just helped Minnesota secure its first-ever World Championship in 1987, when he followed that with an even better season in 1988.  He would have his highest-batting average of his career (.356) but would finish behind Boston's Wade Boggs (.366). In addition to that, Puckett would finish the season with his highest hits total (234), RBI total (121) and slugging percentage (.545) of his abbreviated career.  Although the Twins would improve by six games in the win-column following their World Series victory, the team would finish 13 games behind the Oakland Athletics in the AL West.  Puckett would experience a sharp decline in the power department the following year in which his home run total would drop from 24 to 9 and his slugging would drop from .545 to .465. 

 

2nd | Kirby Puckett | 1986 | .903 OPS | 6.429 runs per game 
 

Puckett's second best season also was the organizations' second best as well.  In 1986, after his first two seasons hitting just four home runs in 1,248 at-bats, Puckett smacked 31 in 680 that year (a career best).  His .328 average was third in the league behind Boggs and Don Mattingly.  Puckett performed at a much higher level than a league average centerfielder who would hit .266/.334/.406 in a season in which Puck would hit .328/.366/.537.

 

• Right Field - Neyer: Tony Oliva, 1965 | Lineup Analyzer: Oliva, 1964

 

Oddly enough, Oliva's 1965 season does not even break the top two seasons of the Cuban.  Neyer says that Oliva's contributions in 1965 helped win the American League (true).  As a pure season goes, Oliva's 1964 was by far his best and therefore the Twins' best season as a right fielder.  In 1964, Oliva provided 4.3 batting wins to the team.  In 1965 it was 3.5.  By OPS+, Oliva's 1965 season of 141 was behind that of his 1971 season 154 and his 1964 season of 150. 

1st | Tony Oliva| 1964 | .916 OPS | 6.697 runs per game

 

Oliva's first full-season, one that earned him the Rookie of the Year honors, was also the best season by any Twins right fielder.  The 25-year-old Cuban native emerged on the scene to hit .323/.359/.577 with 32 home runs and 94 RBIs to boot.  The Twins as a team floundered in 1964, playing eight games below their projected Pythagorean Record of 87-75 to finish 79-83, sixth in the American League and 20 games behind the front-running Yankees.   Oliva finished fourth that season in the AL MVP voting, behind such baseball nobility as Brooks Robinson, Mickey Mantle and Elston Howard, even though Oliva had more hits, a better average, more doubles, runs scored and more home runs (with the exception of Mantle). Still, the Twins now had Oliva who would fit nicely along side Harmon Killebrew, Don Mincher and Bob Allison to help Minnesota reach their first postseason in 1965. 

 

2nd | Tony Oliva | 1971 | .915 OPS | 6.567 runs per game 
 

Oliva's knee injuries began to appear first in 1968, which caused him to miss 34 games.  Somewhat healthy by 1971, Oliva hit .337/.369/.546 with 22 home runs and drove in 81 at 32-years-old.  He would miss a portion of the year mid-season and sat frequently to rest.  In 1972, Oliva would be able to only play in 10 games the entire year.  The addition of the designated hitter in 1973 would resurrect his career for a few more seasons but he was far from the hitter he was prior to 1972.

• Catcher - Neyer: Earl Battey, 1963 | Lineup Analyzer: Joe Mauer, 2006

 

It is hard to fault Neyer for this because in 2003, Joe Mauer was just a heralded prospect in the minor league system.  Since his introduction to the Majors, Joe holds the top two seasons as a Twins catcher.  Battey is the obvious second choice when it comes to Twins catchers all-time.  

1st | Joe Mauer| 2006 | .936 OPS | 7.209 runs per game

 

It should be noted that Mauer's incredible 2006 season, one in which he flirted with .400 for a portion of the year and was the first AL catcher to win the batting title, was better than all of the Twins past-and-present efforts among the outfielders.  After putting together a very good 2005 season following an injury that limited him to just 35 games his first season, Mauer started to lace the ball around the Dome.  His .429 on-base percentage was good enough for second behind Manny Ramirez and Travis Hafner (.439 each).  This production helped the Twins win the AL Central again after doing so from 2002-2004 and then declining in 2005.  In what was bound to stir controversy among Twins fans and statheads alike, Mauer finished sixth in the AL MVP voting behind teammate Justin Morneau, whose OPS+ of 140 was bested by the St. Paul native by four points.

 

2nd | Joe Mauer | 2008 | .864 OPS | 6.395 runs per game 
 

The Twins as a franchise have not had too many offense-oriented catchers in their history.  In fact, you can could them on one hand: Earl Battey, Brian Harper, A.J. Pierzynski and Joe Mauer.  Behind Mauer's .864 OPS in 2008, only Battey in 1961 and 1962 (.847 and .835 OPS, respectively) compete for the top spot.  Nevertheless, Mauer's second batting title season also qualifies as the second-best in team history.  Mauer would hit .328/.413/.451 in 536 at bats, gaining ground among sports writers would would improve Mauer's MVP placement by two spots.  Once again, Mauer would finish behind Morneau despite having identical OPS+ (137) and playing a far more demanding defensive position. 

• Designated Hitter (1973-present) - Neyer: Chili Davis, 1991 | Lineup Analyzer: Davis, 1991

 

For the Twins, finding the the best Twins designated hitter is like spotting Gulliver among the dwarfs... Davis stands out.  There are a few notable efforts that were close to Molitor's second best season, including Pedro Munoz (.827 OPS, 1995) and David Ortiz (.839, 2002) but historically the Twins have not produced anyone who can just focus on hitting.

1st | Chili Davis| 1991 | .892 OPS | 6.462 runs per game

 

Chili Davis will go down as one of the best free agent signings in Minnesota history.  After his 1990 season in California in which he hit .265/.357/.398 and just 12 home runs, GM Andy MacPhail signed him to a two-year deal worth $4.5 million.  In 1991, Davis would hit .277/.385/.507 and a career-high 29 home runs while driving in 93, helping to propel a very good offensive lineup to the postseason and their second World Series title.  Davis would hit two home runs against Atlanta - a two-run home run in Game Two and another two-run shot in Game Three. 

 

2nd | Paul Molitor|1996 | .858 OPS | 6.169 runs per game 
 

The front office had a much different vision of what they expected in 1996 when they signed Paul Molitor to a

two-year, $5.525 million dollar contract.  Molly had just been a hero in Toronto when the Blue Jays won the 1993 World Series title, earned the MVP award that series.  Molitor played well, hitting .341/.390/.468 with 225 total hits including nine home runs and 113 RBIs.  He hit his 3,000 hit in a Twins uniform that year but the empty milestone went for nothing as the Twins finished 78-84 in 1996.  The 39-year-old Molitor would steadily decline in 1997 and 1998 before retiring. 

 

• Most Efficient Lineup:

 

According to the Lineup Analyzer, this below, is the best suited lineup for this collection of talent, one that would average 6.694 runs per game.

 

1 - 2B - Chuck Knoblauch - .842 OPS

2 - 1B - Rod Carew - 1.019 OPS

3 - CF - Kirby Puckett -  .920 OPS

4 - LF - Harmon Killebrew - .952 OPS

5 - 3B - Harmon Killebrew - 1.011 OPS

6 - SS - Cristian Guzman - .814 OPS

7 - DH - Chili Davis - .892 OPS

8 - RF - Tony Oliva - .916 OPS

9 - C - Joe Mauer - .936