The 2008 Starting Rotation: An Analysis of the Record of Opposing Batters

 

Prior to the 2008 season, I studied the batting line of the projected three frontline starters for the Twins (Hernandez, Bonser and Baker).  This was a technique suggested by Bill James when trying to look beyond the standard record and ERA statistics.  The idea is that if your starting pitcher's batting line was comparable to Houston's Michael Bourne (.229/.288/.300) you have a pitcher of ace quality.  Conversely, if your pitcher's batting line looks strikingly similar to Albert Pojuls (.357/.462/.653), that hurler might already be booked for a flight back to one of the team's minor league affiliates (if not back to his hometown). 

 

Livan Hernandez

AVG/OBP/SLG

.342/.375/.520

Comparable: Brian McCann

The findings showed that in 2007, Livan Hernandez made every batter hit like Victor Martinez - the 2007 version of Martinez, that is - who batted .301/.374/.505.  At the time I wrote that employment would be short-lived if Hernandez's results in 2008 emulated those of 2007.  In 24 starts in 2008 Hernandez's opponents batted .342/.375/.520, a lofty step backwards.  Hernandez saw the 2007 Victor Martinez and raised a 2008 Brian McCann, who hit .301/.373/.523 this past season.  The Twins continued to sign his paycheck well into June mostly because of a 6-2 record through 13 starts despite a .339/.369/.506 batting line against in those outings.  It would take a serious slide in victories over the course of the next 10 games (4-6) for the organization to consider cutting Hernandez loose.  Some teams, like the New York Mets, excrete desperation for starting pitching.  When Hernandez was designated for assigment by the Twins, Tony Bernazard, the Mets' vice president for player development, told the NY Times “We will look into anyone who is available.”  It would be the lowly Rockies that claimed him on the waivers.  His stint in Colorado would turn really ugly as National League opponents hit .345/.399/.571 off of him.  While most organizations would be intelligent enough to keep their distance from this sort of volatile there will be one or two ballclubs that will be willing to give Hernandez a spring training invitation because he finished the season with a winning record (13-11) and was able to work 180 excruciating innings.    

Boof Bonser

AVG/OBP/SLG

.285/.333/.443

Comparable: James Loney

Boof Bonser is a curious case study.  The hopes of the organization going into 2008 was the Bonser would shed excess body weight return to the pitcher that appeared at the end of the 2006 season moving, but after making 12 starts and sporting a 2-6 record the Twins banished him to the bullpen.  His 5.97 ERA and record was a poor reflection of his performance as he was actually pitching better than either statistic suggested.  In those 12 starts opponents were batting just .267/.316/.418 (comparable to Miguel Tejada's season).  Once in the bullpen though, Bonser collapsed.  He faced 236 batters in relief, opponents hit .307/.353/.474 (Jose Reyes), while he couldn't keep runners from scoring as indicated by his 57.9% left-on-base percentage.  This was the worst strand-rate by any American League pitcher to log over 100 innings. The underlying problem that manifested itself in 2007 continued into 2008, which was that Bonser could no longer retire left-handed batters.  In 2007, Bonser turned all lefties into Kevin Youkilis. The group of wrong-handers collectively hit .349/.407/.563 off of Boof in 411 plate appearances.  This past season, lefties hit .315/.378/.489 in 243 plate appearances, a comp resembling Magglio Ordonez. This was an oddity considering that in 198 plate appearances in 2006, Bonser had limited left-handed opponents to .251/.305/.454 split.  What had happened over the course of the two seasons?  In 2008, Bonser used mostly fastball (63%), curves (19%) and sliders (11%) when facing lefties.  He would rarely use a changeup (6%).  The results of 2007 were the same: fastballs (58%), curves (23%), sliders (10%) and the occasional changeup (8%).  Yet in 2006, it was his changeup, not his slider that was his third most used pitch.  He used the changeup 12% of the time against lefties and was much more effective.  Because he is out of options, the Twins have tentatively labeled him the long relief guy in 2009, though judging from his splits, he would be better suited as a ROOGY. In order to return to the success that he experienced in 2006, Bonser should implement his changeup as his third pitch when facing lefties.     

Scott Baker

AVG/OBP/SLG

.247/.294/.381

Comparable: Carlos Gomez

In 2008, Baker emerged and grabbed the title of staff ace, leading the rotation with the lowest batting line against of .247/.294/.381.  Coming into the season, Scott Baker also had the best record of opponents batting among the three starters in 2007 and I noted that Baker had the stuff to pitch his way into Brandon Inge territory, who in 2007 had a depressed .236/.312/.376 batting line.  Going sheerly off of OPS, Baker actually did slightly better than turning batters into Inge (675 OPS versus 678 OPS), but unfortunately for Twins fans, his closest comparable in 2008 was none other than Carlos Gomez (who had an OPS of 656).  Baseball-Reference.com has Boof Bonser listed as the closest comparable at age 25 for Baker.  Now that he is entering his 27-year-old season in 2009, the similarities between him and Bonser will deviate significantly.  Baker will assume his rightful position as a number one or number two starter in the 2009 rotation, giving the Twins an excellent right-left combo with Francisco Liriano, and, if he can remain healthy, should accumulate 200 innings for the first time in his career.   

Nick Blackburn

AVG/OBP/SLG

.292/.330/.441

Comparable: Bengie Molina/James Loney

Nick Blackburn is the successful version of Boof Bonser.  They both had similar groundball rates (44.9% gb% versus 40.7%) and line drive rates (20.9% ld% versus 20.4% ld%) and opponents hit Blackburn just as well as they did Bonser.  Yet one of them was asked to start the one-game playoff against Chicago and the other was picking splinters out of his bulbous ass in the bullpen.  What separates Blackburn from Bonser?  The simple answer is that Blackburn can pitch from the stretch and Bonser can't.  With runners on base, opponents were hitting just .274/.307/.390 off of Blackburn as opposed to .306/.348/.481 when he was pitching from the wind-up.  Bonser, meanwhile, implodes when runners reach.  Opponents were batting .322/.349/.467 when Bonser was throwing from the stretch - which has led to Bonser's 57.9% LOB% versus Blackburn's 70.7%.  Blackburn's numbers leave me to believe that he is a number four/five starter, certainly a valuable one who gained postseason experience in his matchup with the Chicago White Sox and had thrown nearly 200 innings in his first full major league season, but if Blackburn is traded during the offseason to obtain a shortstop or third baseman, I wouldn't be surprised either.   

 

Kevin Slowey

AVG/OBP/SLG

.260/.298/.438

Comparable: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Kevin Slowey's 2008 season reaffirmed that his minor league pedigree would follow him to the majors as he posted a 123/24 K/BB ratio, barely losing to Scott Baker for the team's lowest OBP allowed.  Twins fans might balk at seeing Kouzmanoff as Slowey's comparable considering that Kouzmanoff has been one of the rumored third basemen that the team has been interested in, but he almost has the identical K/BB (139/23) and hit just one home run fewer than Slowey allowed (23 versus 22).  Though they are very similar, Kouzmanoff's sophomore season was a huge regression while Slowey's sophomore year was a huge progression in development.  As a flyball pitcher, Slowey benefited from the speedy outfield duo in Carlos Gomez and Denard Span and also took a big step forward in preventing the ball from leaving the park as his home runs to flyball ratio decreased from 16.5% in 2007 to 11.5% in 2008.  Slowey's improvements suggest that in 2009 he will be a frontline starter with Baker and Liriano giving the Twins three solid starters to enter any big series.  

 

Glen Perkins

AVG/OBP/SLG

.301/.334/.493

Comparable: Raul Ibanez/Melvin Mora

Yes, seeing Ibanez as the most comparable probably isn't a good thing but it does fit as Perkins surrendered two of his 27 career home runs to Ibanez.  Perkins was lauded because of his 12-4 record but led the staff in runs allowed per nine innings (4.83) and home runs allowed (25).  His success is exaggerated because Perkins received 6.23 runs per start from his offense - a full run higher than Slowey's 5.20 per game, who finished the season 12-11.  His high opponent average against is because batters are able to make solid contact, as indicated by his 22.6% line drive rate.  Perkins fell apart in September going 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA while opponents bashed him for seven home runs and hit .384/.421/.733 off of him in five starts.  His minor league stats suggest that he is probably better than what he showed in 2008 but not that much better.  The Twins should consider selling high now for infield help.  Both Seattle and Milwaukee will be looking for pitching help this offseason and have Adrian Beltre and JJ Hardy, respectively.  Then again, with the bind that the Twins were in for starting pitching after trading away Matt Garza, the organization might shy away from trading away pitchers with major league experience.   

 

Francisco Liriano

AVG/OBP/SLG

.254/.327/.392

Comparable: Jeremy Hermida/Mark Teahan

Francisco Liriano's 2008 season is hard to label.  His first three starts in May were disastrous in a foolhardy move by the front office.  In those three starts, opponents hit .366/.509/.415 skewing the final opponent batting record, unfairly making him seem comparable to Jeremy Hermida or Mark Teahan.  When Liriano returned from Rochester the second time, opponents hit just .258/.296/.360 - once again turning opposing team's lineups in Carlos Gomez.  Had Liriano had a full season with this performance, his 656 OPS against would have overtaken Baker's 675 as the team's best.  With an entire offseason to prepare for the next year instead of rehabbing, Liriano should be expected to be the Twins' number one starter in 2009. 

New and Improved: A Dissection of Grant Balfour

 

Once upon a time in the fast-paced 1990s, the Minnesota Twins drafted an Australian and transplanted him from the Land Down Under - where women roam and men plunder - to Fort Myers, Florida (which has three Outbacks) to develop what international scouts had discovered was a dominate fastball.     

Splitting his first three professional seasons with the GCL Twins, Elizabethton and Quad Cities, Balfour worked 247 innings with a record of 17-11 and a 213/84 K/BB ratio.  At 22 years old and his first season of A+ ball in Fort Myers, the Twins organization thought he would contribute most from the bullpen - able to rely on his fastball at full-tilt and not have to spread it out over six innings or more.  Balfour transitioned well.  The following season in 2001 he opened up the season in AA New Britain where in 50 innings of work, he struck out 72 and converted 13 save opportunities, earning a promotion in July, taking the roster spot of Quinton McCracken.  Like most prospects, Balfour's introduction to the higher level came with growing pains.  Unfortunately for Balfour, his first call of duty would be against the Seattle Mariners.  

The 2001 Seattle Mariners would score nearly six runs per game (5.74) on their way to 116 victories.  The young fireballer was like a lamb to the slaughter at Safeco Field.  Kyle Lohse would start the game and throw 4 1/3 ineffective innings, kindly leaving a nice mess of Bret Boone on third and John Olerud on first with only one out for Balfour to clean up.  His first major league matchup was with Mike Cameron, whom he would strike out for the second out.  He would walk Al Martin to load the bases but induce an inning-ending grounder out of third baseman David Bell to conclude his initial outing.  The next inning would not go so smoothly as he would give up a walk, sacrifice bunt then a bunt base hit to Ichiro (not a rarely feat considering he had 242 that year) followed by a sacrifice fly to give him his first earned run of his career. 

 Five days later, the Twins would find themselves doing battle with the same Mariners at the Metrodome.  Once again Kyle Lohse would be the starter who would last just five innings against the potent run-producing lineup.  Down 8-3, manager Tom Kelly would call upon Grant Balfour as his third pitcher of the night.  Balfour would surrender a solo home run to Ichiro followed a batter later with a two-run blast by Bret Boone.  The loss would move the Twins in a tie with the second-place Cleveland Indians.  Deciding that more calvery for the bullpen was needed if they expected to compete all season, Terry Ryan sent left-handed starter Mark Redman to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Todd Jones.  One day later, Ryan would make room for his new bullpen arm by optioning Balfour to AAA Edmonton.  Jones, of course, would be no help as the Twins spiraled to the finish, going 25-39 the rest of the way.  Balfour would continue his trend in AAA:  In 11 appearances, he worked 16 innings while striking out 17 but walking 10 and giving up 10 earned runs.

    

Balfour would spend all of 2002 in AAA, posting very good numbers are the parent club would return to the postseason for the first time in eleven years.  In 2003, when Mike Nakamura was unable to provide relief to the bullpen, Balfour would be recalled in July.  In 26 innings of work, Balfour posted a decent 4.15 ERA and a 30/14 K/BB ratio.  His 2003 performance would allow him to return to the Twins bullpen in 2004 when he would toss 39.1 innings with a 4.35 ERA and a 42/21 K/BB split, but not before being placed on the DL for six weeks with a sore shoulder to the ire of the coaching staff.  Making it back to the playoffs, the Twins would keep Balfour and his mid-90s fastball on the postseason roster.  In the deciding Game 4, Balfour would be asked to replace Johan Santana going into the sixth inning with Twins 5-1 lead over the Yankees.  Balfour's two scoreless innings provided Ron Gardenhire with some brief reassurance that he made the right move, that is, until Juan Rincon surrendered a three-run home run to Ruben Sierra. 

 

Deploying a hard fastball (69% of the time) and a slider (10%), the Twins began dreaming of a 2005 bullpen that would consist of Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, JC Romero and Grant Balfour.  It would, however, remain just that: a dream.  In spring training, Balfour began to indicate he had forearm tightness and missed the majority of spring training.  Since he was jerked back and forth from the minors to the majors, Balfour was out of options and would have to either start the season on the DL or pass through waivers before being outrighted to Rochester.  Balfour's inability to give the Twins coaching staff any sort of timeline irked them with the season opening swiftly approaching.  "He [Balfour] said, 'I felt fine for the first eight minutes, but not so good the last two,'" Gardenhire said. "What am I supposed to do with that? Is he good to go, or does he have a problem?" 

 

Doctors would confirm that it was a muscle strain, shutting him down for the remainder of spring training, making him a DL candidate to start the season.  After being cleared to begin throwing off the mound, Balfour experienced setbacks, noting pain in the forearm when throwing 80% in sessions.  At the end of April, the Twins decided to have Balfour get exploratory surgery done on the arm to determine once and for all if he would require Tommy John surgery.  The surgery would reveal an 85% tear in his elbow ligament necessitating the Tommy John.  "It was nice to go in there and find out why I was having trouble with my arm," Balfour said. "It rules out all the questions."

 

The surgery followed by rehabilitation would take Balfour out of the game for over a year.  After briefly working out in Fort Myers in the fall at the Twins complex, the team ultimately decided to offer a 2006 contract to Balfour.  It didn't take long for the Cincinnati Reds to take out a flier on him, giving him $340K in hopes that Balfour would be ready by the second-half.  "He was originally operated on by Dr. Kremchek, so we have a pretty good idea here of what's involved," Reds general manager Dan O'Brien said in January. "He's currently in rehab. He will be reporting to major league camp, but will not be physically able to compete for a job in spring training. If everything goes as planned, he could likely return about midseason."  Balfour would only throw nine innings in the Reds farm system before being claimed by the Brewers in October, selected by O'Brien who was ousted at his GM position and took up a special advisor role in Milwaukee. 

 

The 2007 spring training started off poorly for Balfour. "So far, not that great a couple of games," said Balfour, after giving up six earned runs on seven hits in just 3.3 innings of work. "I feel like I got some ground balls. There are other parts of the game where I could have made a better pitch and helped myself buy getting out of the inning. With two outs, I kind of let things slide instead of bearing down and getting more focused and getting the hitter out."  The regular season wouldn't be much better.  In July, Balfour was recalled along with Manny Parra, a left-handed prospect that had once pitched along side Balfour at the Futures Game in 2003, only to implode in his three outings, logging 2 2/3 innings will seceding six earned runs, four walks and four hits.  On July 30th, the Brewers shipped him to Tampa for Seth McClung, ending O'Brien's experiment of reviving the righty. 

 

According to Fangraphs.com, Balfour's fastball was only registering 92.9-mph while in Milwaukee, well below the 96-mph that he was hitting with the Twins prior to the Tommy John surgery.  In addition to the decline in his velocity, Balfour leaned heavily on his slider, spinning it nearly a quarter of the time.  The Brewers may have given up on Balfour too prematurely, because by August, Rays manager Joe Maddon was singing his praises.   "I definitely see a power arm," Maddon said. "I've seen him beat fastball hitters in fastball counts when they know a fastball's coming, and that's always nice to do that. I've been impressed. I would like to get to the point where you can start using him two days in a row. We see a possible bright future with this guy, so we want to take care of him. We want to get a good look and take care of him at the same time."

 

Once in Tampa, Balfour begin using mainly his fastball again (77%), which was regaining speed, up to 93.2-mph on average at the end of the season.  "The scouting of Balfour was really good," said Joe Maddon. "When Andrew [Friedman, the Rays' vice president of baseball operations] picked him up, he told me about his strike-throwing and velocity and all that other kind of stuff -- his breaking ball. This guy just needs opportunity. He's been waiting for this moment. He's interesting, because I think as he gains arm strength [based on recovery from surgery], he could be very good."  In his 22 innings with the Devil Rays, Balfour struck out 27 and walked 16 while allowing just one home run, providing a solid arm for the Devil Rays projecting into 2008. 

 

In 2008, his fastball had been dominate.  But it didn't begin according to plan.  The Rays decided to designate Balfour for assignment, effectively making him available to anyone that wanted to pay the waiver fee and opting to keep Scott Dohmann on the roster in Balfour's stead because of "overall strike zone command".  The Australian accepted his assignment to AAA Durham and continued his resurgence, working 23.2 innings, allowing just five hits and striking out 39.  On May 29th, with Rays closer Troy Percival needing DL time, the team decided to recall the flamethrowing right-hander that had been lighting up the International League. 

    

"Pitching is about confidence," Balfour said upon his return from Durham. "Get on a little bit of a roll and take it from there. Just go out there and drop a zero. Then go out there and drop another one. Like hitters getting hits. I just tried to roll with it as long as I could. Everyone loves to pitch in close games. I enjoy the pressure of key situations. I think you come in really zeroed in, really focused.  You should be focused every time you go out there. But when it's 10-1, 11-1, it's different. Guys will tell you that. It's different when the game is on the line."

    

Using his 94.6-mph fastball nearly 92% of the time, sprinkled in with an 86-mph slider has led to a groundball rate of 61% and a 12.65 K/9 - the second highest among AL relievers.  It is evident that not only is Balfour one-hundred percent healed, but he has a new-found confidence that has propelled the Rays bullpen deep into the 2008 playoffs. 

    

Offseason Mishmash (10.07.08).

 

• Similar to our local media mantra of the "overachieving" Twins, the White Sox are implementing the same phrases when reflecting back on their 2008 season now that they are officially eliminated from the playoffs.  Owner Jerry Reinsdorf sounded off following the Sox's 6-2 loss to the Rays: ''I feel like we had four elimination games, five including this one, but [general manager Ken Williams] did a great job putting this team together. 'At the start of the season, none of the seers, none of you guys thought we would be here. I remember reading the newspapers in April, some of the most vicious things I've ever read were in the newspapers in April. 'How can they go to the well with [John] Danks and [Gavin] Floyd?' But Kenny knew how important they would be, he went after them and he got them.  The Cuban [Alexei Ramirez] was great. [Manager Ozzie Guillen] did a fabulous job, there's nothing to be ashamed of. On the contrary, we should be proud [of the season].''
  Still the finger-pointing continues on the Southside as pundits seek out answers...  Two obvious scapegoats appear to be Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher.  The Chicago Sun-Times columnist Chris De Luca believes that the pair will be reduced to just one.  Cabrera, acquired in a trade with the Angels for right-hander Jon Garland in November of last year, toiled as the number two then leadoff hitter - batted .281/.334/.371 in 730 plate appearances in the regular season - but like most of the White Sox didn't perform in the ALDS going 2-for-16.  In Game 1, Cabrera kicked dirt at home plate towards Rays pitcher Grant Balfour, a former Twin, in efforts to "challenge" Balfour.  Balfour had accused of yelling the "f-word" after a hitter would swing at his pitch, something that he said he always does, "I’m the same pitcher I’ve been all year. I talk to myself a lot out there, no one else. That’s not going to change."  The challenge backfired on Cabrera, and Balfour rang him up for the strikeout. "It was nothing, just a moment of heat on the battlefield," Cabrera said. "We were trying to challenge each other. Apparently, he likes to be challenged. So I was just trying to take his mind out of the game and challenge him a little bit, and he won the battle."  As an impending free agent, Cabrera's chances of remaining a White Sox in 2009 fall somewhere between "slim" and "none"... The White Sox made a steep investment on Swisher, trading three promising prospects in Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos and Ryan Sweeney, and are now committed to paying Swisher $21.05 through 2011 (with a $12m option on 2012).  In response, Swisher flat-out failed to perform to expectation.  When attempting to find the differences between his 2006 season, where he batted .254/.372/.493, statistics that the White Sox front office assumed Swisher would produce, the peripherals offer little insight.  The manner in which he put the ball in play was identical.  In both seasons, the switch-hitting Swisher put the ball on the ground 35% of the time.  In 2006, Swisher hit line drives 20% of the time compared to 19% of the time this past season.  Likewise on the plate appearances that he did not put the ball in play also correlated as his ability the draw a walk (15%) and strikeout (23%) mirrored each other in 2006 and 2008.  Swisher was unable to catch breaks as his batting line plummeted to a career-low of .219/.332/.410 in 588 plate appearances thanks to a depressed .249 batting average on balls in play - well below the AL average of .302.  Swisher's batting average on balls in play from the right-side of the plate took a nose dive to .204 in 168 plate appearances.  Meanwhile, in 2006, Swisher boasted a BABIP one hundred points higher (.306) in 176 plate appearances from the right-side.  This analysis would suggest that Swisher was most effective when batting left-handed and a detrimental to a lineup when hitting right-handed.  A seemingly obvious conclusion, right?  Apparently not to manager Ozzie Guillen who paired Swisher with the left-handed batting Dwayne Wise during the ALCS, exposing Swisher's soft right-handed bat in Game 2.
• Sabernomics writer JC Bradbury says that his projected marginal revenue model indicates that CC Sabathia should command a $144 million dollar contract for six years - roughly $24 million per season.  This would certainly price Sabathia out of the Brewers' market but there is financial wiggle room for general manager Doug Melvin.  At $80 million in payroll heading into 2008, the Brewers will purge themselves of $10 million after Eric Gagne is gone, another $10 million by declining the option of Mike Cameron and another $11 million if Ben Sheets leaves via free agency leaving $31 million to extend a contracts to the arbitration-eligible Prince Fielder, second baseman Rickie Weeks, and shortstop JJ Hardy while earmarking $24 million of that $31 to ink Sabathia.  "The numbers you hear for a player like CC start to approach what we pay the team, so you have to be creative on how you structure things. But, they've got financial advisers and they can be creative, too, so we'll see," owner Mark Attanasio said...  The unfortunate contract that the Brewers would most like to unburden themselves with isn't going anywhere, that's the two-years and $25-million left on Jeff Suppan's contract, which would provide the front office with half of Sabathia's expected annual salary over the next two seasons.  JSOnline columnist Michael Hunt believes that the Brewers could shop both Fielder and Weeks for pitching if the bidding for Sabathia goes astronomical. 
• Speaking of the Brewers -- they are overweight. 
• Reports out of Texas say that during a hotel bar fight in Galveston, Texas, a police officer punched the Houston Astros' Brandon Backe in the face twice after a post-wedding altercation led to the police being called.   Backe had been a member of the wedding party and ignored the officer's request to back away from the fight.  Being hit repeatedly is nothing new to Backe has he surrendered 36 home runs and 202 hits in his 166.7 innings of work in 2008.  Backe finished the season 9-14 with a 6.05 ERA.
• Since the Twins were ousted from postseason play, many have begun to deconstruct what could have happened differently, how one win here or there might have been the difference between watching in Tropicana and playing in Tropicana.  Detroit Free Press's John Lowe noted that the Twins had dropped four games to the Tigers after leading going into the 8th inning.  Two of those losses to the Tigers came during Detriot's putrid 2-10 start to the season in April.  Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain failed to secure the victory in back-to-back games on April 14 and April 15 at Comerica.  In Neshek's instance, he entered mid-inning with a 9-7 lead and runners on first and second with nobody out.  Neshek was able to get Renteria to induce into a potential doubleplay ball that only got the runner at second.  With runners on first and third and one down, Ivan Rodriguez blasted a triple to center to score both Miguel Cabrera and Renteria to tie the game.  Former Twins Jacque Jones hit a sacrifice fly to give the Tigers a 10-9 led.  The following day, the Twins took a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the eighth and manager Ron Gardenhire called on Jesse Crain to retire the top of the Tigers order.  Clete Thomas struck out swinging but Placido Polanco walked.  With just the one out and Gary Sheffield batting, Crain threw wildly on a pickoff attempt that allowed Polanco to reach third.  Able to induce a pop foul to Mauer from Sheffield, Crain was nearly off the hook when Maggilo Ordonez doubled to right followed by a Miguel Cabrera home run to put the Tigers outfront 6-4.  This is just another example of the need to address issues in the bullpen this offseason.

 

 

The 2008 Minnesota Twins: Expecting the Unexpected**

    If history has taught us anything it is that expectations fail, and they fail where expectations are most promising. For example, Captain Edward J. Smith expected the Titanic to cross the Atlantic Ocean. An iceberg, on the other hand, had a different destiny for the steamliner that was supposedly unsinkable. Lofty expectation can come crashing down to Earth quickly.  So when baseball experts spent most of the off-season penciling in the Detroit as the Division champions, those who have historical perspective should have known better. Certainly on paper the Tigers appeared indestructible, much like the great ship. They acquired Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Add those bats to a lineup that trailed only the Yankees in 2007 and Willis to a rotation that sported Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, and Kenny Rogers, and anyone would expect an improvement on their 88-win season in '07. Yet at the conclusion of the first forty-one games in 2008, the Tigers were situated at 16-25 - last in the Central on May 15th.

    Likewise many of the same experts turned to the Cleveland Indians, a team that in 2007 came one game away from a World Series appearance, as the obvious Division suitor if the Tigers stumbled. After all, Cleveland not only had all of their key offensive contributors returning but also had a rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona and Cliff Lee to provide a decent chance of winning each series. Regardless, by August 1st the Indians' winning percentage was at a sub-prime .435 and Sabathia was getting his mail forwarded to Milwaukee. The organization had rescinded into an unexpected rebuild mode.

The Twins meanwhile were labeled at the onset as also-rans. Naturally it was easy to overlook a team that had more unanswered questions than Celebrity Jeopardy. How could a team that had lost three starting pitchers (Johan Santana, Matt Garza and Carlos Silva), a Gold Glove center fielder (Torii Hunter), and a high-caliber defensive shortstop (Jason Bartlett) manage to improve on a 79-win season? How did they record a 21-15 record against the aforementioned teams?

    Undoubtedly the remaining headliners (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Joe Nathan) accounted for a considerable portion of the team's success, but unexpected sources also lifted the team to victory:

Jason Kubel | DH

    There was plenty of statistical evidence in 2007 that indicate Kubel was primed for a breakout season. Still recovering from his knee injury in the first months of 2007, Kubel hit just .238/.293/.358 with a 33/11 K/BB ratio in 165 plate appearances in April and May. By August and September Kubel was a lineup mainstay batting .341/.418/.553 with a 25/19 K/BB ratio in 153 plate appearances. In January, Baseball Prospectus's Joe Sheehan took an early stance saying that "[Kubel's] 26 this season, and may actually be the Twins' best hitter during it; better than Morneau, better than Mauer."

    The season again started off slow for Kubel. But as he was regularly rotated with Craig Monroe as the designated hitter, he became a catalyst for the Twins, hitting .322/.391/.610 in 69 plate appearances between June 13th and July 6^th. During that stretch, the team won 18 out of 21 games. Kubel has also hit a career-high number of home runs this season by crossing the 20-homer benchmark, second on the team only to Morneau.

Nick Blackburn | SP

    Subtract the $40 million dollar contract and three years from Carlos Silva and what are you left with? Nick Blackburn. In 2007, his introduction was without fanfare as he allowed 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings while opponents hit .365/.389/.519. His minor league pedigree, however, (701 1/3 innings, 434/154 K/BB ratio and a 3.68 ERA) was solid enough to merit a spot in a rotation that lost three of their frontline starters.

    Blackburn responded. Despite some hiccups (such as a 5.20 ERA away from the Dome), the control artist amassed nearly 200 innings to lead the staff and ranked seventh in the American League in walks-to-innings ratio. For a rotation that battled early season injuries (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey) and performance issues (Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano) the Twins were fortunate to have a pitcher tally so many innings.

 

Nick Punto | INF

    Punto's previous season was beyond the pale. His slugging percentage of .271 was the lowest among qualified batters in the AL and his contact was poor too - a 14% line drive rate which was the third lowest in the league. The result was a jaw-droppingly low batting line of .210/.288/.271 - production that was tantamount to the Mendoza Line. So when Alexi Casilla was placed on the DL on July 29th, fans braced for the worst.

    But in Casilla's stead, Punto performed admirably, batting .294/.394/.412 in 132 plate appearances. Though his line drive rate remained consistent to his 2007 season, his batting average on balls in play jumped to .335, leading to a much improved season line in 2008.

 

Denard Span | RF

    On July 22nd, manager Ron Gardenhire finally decided that Carlos Gomez was no longer "exciting" enough to bat leadoff. A lackluster .281 on-base percentage by Gomez in 418 plate appearances incited the manager to move Denard Span and his robust .424 OBP to the top of the order. Slotting Span’s on-base skills in front of Casilla, Mauer and Morneau raised the number of runs scored per game to 5.50, compared to 4.92 in Gomez's tenure.

    Certainly judging from Span's minor league batting line no one could have expected this output. In over 2,000 plate appearances, Span hit .287/.355/.358 within the farm system, a fairly pedestrian mark. However at the close of the 2007 season in AAA, Span developed an eagle eye for the strike zone: in 123 plate appearances, Span walked 13% of them and struck out in just 9%, finishing out what had been an otherwise disappointing season with a .398 OBP in August. Span opened 2008 in AAA and mirrored his final month by posting a .429 OBP, earning the promotion at the end of June when Michael Cuddyer was put on the DL. Now it’s hard to imagine an effective top of the batting order without him.

    Of course if we’re completely honest, the successes of any one team depends on more than a handful of players—it depends on every guy who’s lucky enough to step to the dish or take his position in the field over the course of the season. It’s not as simple as cliché’s like “A team is only as strong as its weakest link”, because in baseball every action and every occurrence is so dependent on its own unique situation.

    But every time a team makes it into the post-season, there are always a number of players that can be identified as integral to success. Whether it’s Francisco Liriano mopping up down the stretch, Alexi Casilla stepping into the void at second base, Scott Baker stepping up to have his best season in the majors or one of the guys mentioned above, the success just proves one thing: baseball is a team sport, and Minnesota forced a one-game playoff as a team. There will always be more to baseball’s best clubs than their recognizable faces, and the Twins in 2008 were no exception.

**Had the Twins made the playoffs, this piece would have been in that special Gameday issue.  Thanks to both John Bonnes and Jesse Lund for editing and allowing me to contribute this season. 

The Summary

 

    The the closest thing the Twins would come to October baseball is five hours and a 38-year-old centerfielder's arm away.  They would come within one former catcher's clutches away from mass producing ticket strips.  Twins fans were six days away from the smell of stale air that lingers when one emerges from the Dome in a time of mid-autumn baseball, that is, if it were not for one pitch and one 37-year-old swing.  A swing that had haunted Twins fans since the mid-1990s.  The game had all of the makings for an ESPN Instant Classic - except for those residing in the land bordered between Wisconsin, Iowa, the Dakotas and Canada.

    

    Two inexperienced arms dueled tirelessly in the chill of the Chicago night.  The starting pitchers, like soldiers charging into No-Man's Land, tossed pitch after pitch like wielded bayonets at their opponents just sixty-feet and six-inches away.  The White Sox's John Danks twirled curves and sliders while Minnesota's Nick Blackburn countered with cutters and running-fastball. Thousands of fans swirling in black, engulfing the field, willed strike three out of Danks every time he sped ahead by two strikes on a Twins batter - a request that he was happily to oblige on Justin Morneau twice and Joe Mauer once.  Blackburn showed great movement as he darted, dipped, dived, dodged his way around the strike zone - almost always seeming to work ahead of a lineup that had out-slaughtered the Twins lineup 234 to 111 in home runs.  It was, however, the 235th would decide  final playoff berth and execute the Twins like swift justice.   

 

    

    According to Hittrackeronline.com, it was the definition of a proverbial moonshot.  Thome's home run traveled upwards of 458 feet into centerfield - leading to no need for video assistance.  It was only fitting that a team that lived by the home run, won by the home run.  During one of managing-great Earl Weaver's frequent post-game radio shows, Weaver once made an extensively insightful tirade as the response to an on-air question in which a listener called in to inquire as to why the Baltimore Orioles were not interested in acquiring more speed.  In a particularly foul disposition, Weaver sounded off: "Team Speed?! For christsakes, you get g*ddamn little fleas on the f*cking bases getting picked off, trying to steal, getting thrown out, taking runs away from you...Get them big c*cksuckers that can hit the ball out of the ballpark and you make no mistakes."  The Twins had a roster of "g*ddamn little fleas" as the White Sox contained "them big c*cksuckers that can hit the ball out of the ballpark." 

 

    The game transpired on a stage that should be viewed as more than one playoff game in which two successful teams clashed - it goes so much deeper.  It was a living case study for baseball researchers that will assist in compiling evidence to support power over speed when nine innings are at stake.  US Cellular turned into a battleground for these two different baseball theories:  One ideology residing in the third-largest market in the United States that would acquire expensive, aging talent that can hit the ball a ton but couldn't run and the other had cheap labor that could gain an extra base and cover substantial ground for the basis of their success.  In game 163, the record will indicate that power succeeded when Thome's blast cleared the deepest part of centerfield to create the lone run of the game - circling the bases like Judd Nelson a la the Breakfast Club exiting his Saturday of detention.       

    

 

      Some will certainly will state that this season was miraculous insomuch as the Twins were not expect to compete.  The team was expected to sink to the bottom of the division, exchanging places with Kansas CIty and develop for the future.  We, as Twins fans, should consider ourselves lucky that we were one of seven teams that would have the possibility to face an elimination game with such magnitude.  (Ask any Mariners fan if they would enjoy the same thrill.)  Still, it feels like there are much more unanswered questions:

 

• Was the fate of the Twins sealed by a simple coin-flip in mid-September in which Mark Fein on TBS revealed was chosen by Chicago's Assistant General Manager's 5-year-old son?  Had MLB decided to use the head-to-head records in which the Twins were 10-8 against the White Sox for home field advantage, would we be discussing the Twins chances in St Petersburg?   
• How didn't the Twins steal on victory away from a Royal team in the final weekend of the season - a team that was 11-4 against the Twins and finished with a .463 winning percentage?
• Were the Twins finished when both trade deadlines produced only Eddie Guardado as fruit?  Would the addition of Chad Bradford or Latroy Hawkins been the difference make in milking an extra win or two to ensure Tuesday night's game would never happen?
• If the Republicans had chosen a different venue for their convention and not sent the Twins on a daunting 14-game road trip from Aug 21 to Sept 4th in which the Twins went 5-9 would the results be any different?
• Did Ron Gardenhire use Matt Guerrier as a set-up man and Carlos Gomez as a leadoff man one too many times?

 

All these are good questions that deserve educated answers but for me I am not able to digest all this at the moment -- the answers will come soon enough, just not tonight.