Notebook Dump (07.24.08)

Game: Twinks 1, Yankees 5

Box Score

Record: 55-46, 2nd place, 2.5 games back

Streak: 4 losses

The quote: “Funny things happen when we come to New York. I guess what we get to look forward to is a new stadium. Maybe we’ll do better at the new stadium. Not very much fun here today.” - Ron Gardenhire.

The Inning: Certainly Alexi Casilla has been one of the better additions to the ballclub since his recall earlier in the season, igniting an offense who would not have a baserunner for Joe Mauer had Casilla not been placed behind Carlos Gomez who has a phobia of being on-base recently. However his lackadaisical play in the field is detracting from the team and gave the Yankees, who are averaging 4.7 runs per game, an extra outs will come back to bite you in the ass.

Casilla learned this the hard way in the bottom of the 5th inning. Both Robinson Cano (the second-half hero) and Melky Cabrera singled up the middle out of Glen Perkins with one-out. Perkins threw an 88 mph fastball under the strike zone to Yankees catcher Jose Molina who bounced to Brendan Harris at third. Harris pivoted to Casilla, hoping to start what should have been an inning-ending double play, only Casilla ate the ball. "There are scoreboards everywhere in this game," Gardenhire said, "It's inexcusable. He knows that. He feels terrible. You think about that before. You look around. It's a routine double play. It's as routine as you can get it."

This brought up Jason Christian, the Yankees outfielder who had played in nine games at the major league level to this point in his career. In 1,982 minor league plate appearances, Christian was batting .287/.349/.423 - a very respectable line. Perkins went to bust the righty inside, the first pitch was too far in and was called a ball. The second one was too fat, barely inside at 88 mph. Christian turned on it and pulled it down the left field line. Cano scampered home from third and Molina, the baserunner that shouldn't be, chugged all the way from first to score as well. The two runs in the 5th were more than enough for Mike Mussina who was dissecting the Twins line-up and received crucial doubleplays from Nick Punto and Denard Span.

The Links:

* Kevin Slowey has been an object of bewilderment to me this season. Five outings ago, Slowey worked over the Padres line-up to the tune of six innings, seven strike outs and just four hits (Game Score 71). For an encore he subdued Milwaukee for a complete game, striking out eight (Game Score 89) however since then Slowey has seemed to go in the opposite direction in his last three starts. Over that period in games against Cleveland, Detroit and most recently the Yankees, Slowey failed to get past the sixth inning, walked six and struck out ten. Opponents hit .306/.368/.548 in that duration (.243/.269/.441 every other game), averaging a Game Score of 36 per start. Slowey has been slowed by a fingernail infection and had a bicep injury in spring training. There is no word on how this is effecting his performance but I would monitor how his next scheduled start goes before suggesting that there may be something to the injuries.

* Rotowire's Dave Regan wrote up a list of the top fifteen could be ready pitching prospects looking for a September call-up. Number nine on the list is Minnesota's Kevin Mulvey. Regan writes: "Included in the Johan Santana deal, Mulvey has been pretty good (not dominant) for the Twins in Triple-A this season. A 3.97 ERA and 7.4 K/9 won't wow anyone, but Mulvey is a polished college pitcher with 19 Triple-A starts under his belt now, so he's going to get a look at some point. Francisco Liriano is next up to get the call to Minnesota, but Livan Hernandez is always a good candidate to give up another rotation spot." Mulvey has not garnered that much attention this season, mostly because of his pedestrian 3-8 record, but his strikeout rate at 18.7% (17.8% on his career) is a fairly impressive total and as some one who throws strikes Mulvey might be able to benefit from some upgraded defense as the Red Wings have one of the worst fielding percentages and defensive effciency ratio. Look for Kevin Mulvey to be a candidate if anyone else has injuries following Liriano's recall.

* Jeff Pearlman recently followed up with Lamb when the Twins were in Boston, noting that Lamb's career soured from his days in 2000 when he was one of the Rangers' rising stars, and penned a piece that made Lamb come off as beaten. At thirty-two and currently hitting .229/.264/.304 with just the one home run coming in Detroit on May 23rd, we could very well be witnessing the swan-song of Mike Lamb. True, the Twins are still due $3 million to him for 2009 but the team has found that Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris make a very serviceable platoon at third while they also have Matt Macri available in Rochester and Matt Tolbert sizing up a return from the disabled list. Lamb certainly could become the guy squeezed out. But it looks like it won't be requesting a trade: "I'm not going to make any demands, I'm not going to request anything. It's up to them." Lamb told the Pioneer Press, "I don't know what they have in mind for me, or for the future. I'm just trying to be ready to play, one way or the other."

* If the Twins are looking for some pop to help out the line-up against left-handed pitching, the team may have to look mo further than in Rochester for the short-term solution. Randy Ruiz, the 30-year-old minor league free agent, has been tearing the cover off the ball in the International League as of late. After a slow start to the season, Ruiz is now hitting .309/.357/.504 with 14 home runs thanks to a 24-game hitting streak. In 107 at-bats against the southpaws, Ruiz is hitting .327/.397/.514. According to MinorLeagueSplits.com's Major League Equivalency Calculator, a program that converts what the numbers from one league would project to in another (i.e. how Eastern League performance would equate to Pacific Coast League, etc), it finds that Ruiz's International League line against lefties would equate to a .281/.343/.429 batting line against Major League pitching. This, of course, is substantially better then that of Craig Monroe, who in 77 at-bats against lefties this season is hitting .185/.221/.221. It would also be better than the rest of the right-handed batters in the line-up as well who are hitting .260/.304/.363. Ruiz would be limited to DH as his mobility is this just slightly better than brutal.

* If you unfamilar with Inside Edge Scouting Services, I'd recommend that you take a look. Great visual charts.

Deadline Acquisitions.

As teams jockey for position in July, General Managers begin to assess whether their club is a buyer or a seller. These are two radically different perspectives when gauging the market.

The seller ballclubs are in a difficult position. First, the local market is already seething with disappointment. Take Cleveland for instance. When the team sputtered out of the gate and never made a good charge at the AL Central the fan base turned sour. Analyzing the economics of the situation, General Manager Mark Shapiro was forced to trade pending free agent CC Sabathia early to Milwaukee for prospect Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson and a player to be named later. The focus is now on 2009 and beyond. The citizens of the Mistake by the Lake should be very receptive to this. It is reminiscent of the trade that Shapiro orchestrated with Bartolo Colon and the Montreal Expos. The Expos received a solid contributor in Colon (0.73 wpa) but lost prospects Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee for the rental of Colon for the rest of the 2002 season. "This very clearly and very definitively demonstrates that we are moving into a formal rebuilding process with players that we all feel are going to be here in the '04 and '05 seasons which are when we feel we can start to emerge as a contender again,'' Shapiro said. Sizemore and Lee have been building blocks for the Indians franchise and Phillips has been a great second baseman for Cincinnati. Meanwhile the Expos-cum-Nationals are now suffering the consequences of losing key prospects.

Secondly, the General Manager has to decide if it is a sellers' market, one where multiple ballclubs are vying for one of their league's six playoff spots, putting the General Manager in the difficult position of evaluating prospective talent from opposing clubs and trying to quantify how these prospects will be influential on their club's roster two or three years into the future. Sometimes this can backfire. When General Manager Dave Littlefield and the Pittsburgh Pirates decided in 2003 that they wanted to trim the budget and decided that third baseman Aramis Ramirez's contract with $6 million due to him in 2004 was too rich. For cost cutting measures, they dangled him for the buyers. "You don't like to trade a player like Ramirez who has come up through their system and performed like he did, but we need better talent and more financial flexibility,'' Littlefield said. "We need a lot more players to help us get to where we want to be.'' Interdivisional rivals Chicago Cubs and Jim Hendry ponied up shortstop Jose Hernandez, minor league pitcher Matt Bruback and minor league second baseman Bobby Hill whose stock had fallen wildly on his disappointing introduction to major league pitching. Bruback and Hill never ascended to the majors and Hernandez was a Dodger the following year. The Pirates trotted Chris Stynes out for 71 games at third base only to have him hit .216/.266/.296 with one home run in 174 plate appearances for $750,000. Ramirez, for $5.25 million more, hit .318/.372/.578 with 36 home runs. Pittsburgh could have waited one additional season before attempting to trade the 26 year old Dominican third baseman but opted to sell early, focusing on the rebuild.

But the gamble is just as high on the teams that are on the cusp of the race looking to buy. The General Managers, electing to "go all in" attempting to trade for one or two players that they think will push them over the top at the high cost of future, inexpensive talent, has often led to skeleton farm systems. The Atlanta Braves did this last year when they shipped five top prospects (including super-prospect Elvis Andrus) to Texas for Mark Teixeira. The Braves were 55-51, four and a half games out of the NL East behind the leading New York Mets, when they packaged Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison (a left-handed pitcher who the Twins just crushed), Neftali Feliz and Beau Jones for Teixeira and LOOGY Ron Mahey. "I'll think about next year next year," General Manager John Schuerholz said when pressed about the size of the prospect package. "If we win two pennants it is, or one World Series and one pennant. We wouldn't have done it if we didn't think it was worth it. We hope the result is that we win because of it, but there are no guarantees in baseball." Though Teixeira made significant contributions offensively (1.53 wpa in that span) to the Braves the addition wasn't enough as the team slipped the remainder of the season finishing 29-27 unable to overcome either Philadelphia or the Mets. This season almost at the same position as they were in one year ago, six and a half games out of the front-running Phillies, the Braves could go either way - become buyers or sellers - depending on how they want philosophically build in the future. With an aging core of expensive starting pitching (Glavine, Smoltz, Hudson) the club could choose to liquidate Teixeira who is on the final year of his contract and hope to reap dividends from whatever bounty a franchise rich in minor league talent (i.e. Red Sox) might be willing to trade.

Twins General Manager Bill Smith finds himself and his team in a precocious state. Just a game and a half behind the AL Central leading White Sox, the Twins are in a position to be buyers, hoping to address needs with two months remaining. Historically the Twins have been very hesitant on their maneuvers. They have not made any "deadline" acquisitions since 2001 when they were disappointed by the production of Rick Reed (-0.69) and Todd Jones (-0.69). Two seasons later they made an educated trade fifteen days before the trade deadline in what will prove to be the most successful mid-season addition by any team since 2001 (see Shannon Stewart below). They have succeed in spite of room for improvement, most notably a right-handed bat that can hit left-handed pitching and an E.I.G. (Eighth Inning Guy). Smith could let this current roster ride hoping that either the Chicago White Sox will falter. After all, Delmon Young could have a power-packed second-half and eliminate the need for a right-handed bat and the bullpen problem may have been exaggerated thanks to a series that exposed Neshek absence.

Top Midseason Trade Values (By WPA) Since 2001

2.30 wpa | Shannon Stewart | of | 334 plate appearances, 6 home runs, .322/.384/.470

July 16th, 2003 - One of the more memorable trades for the Twins was also one of the most successful infusion of talent into a line-up prior to the trade deadline since 2001. The Twins gave up switch-hitting Bobby Kielty who had been hitting .251/.370/.420 with nine home runs providing a respectable 0.61 wpa to the team at that point in the season. The consensus was that the Twins needed a legitimate lead-off hitter. Jacque Jones, while bashing home runs, was masquerading as a lead-off hitter and not getting on base the way the line-up needed. The Twins tapped Toronto's Shannon Stewart who had been their object of affection for quite some time. Locally there were some who were hesitant about the trade. Stewart was hitting a very good .294/.347/.449 with seven home runs but had not been adding much to the Blue Jays, adding -0.12 in wpa. The Twins were 44-47, five and a half games behind the upstart Kansas City Royals when the deal was made. After the Twins went 46-25, finishing 90-72, appropriately defending their AL Central title. In the playoffs against the Yankees, Stewart went 6-for-15 with 2 doubles but failed to score a run in the four game series.

1.97 wpa | Bobby Abreu | of | 248 plate appearances, 7 home runs, .330/.419/.507

July 30th, 2006 - At the end of July, the Yankees were a half game behind the Boston Red Sox in the American League East race and had serious challengers in the American League Central for the Wild Card (White Sox, Twins). The Yankee braintrust traded four fungoe bats assumed to be minor league prospects to Pat Gillick and the Philadelphia Phillies for Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle. Even though it was called a "trade" it was actually a pillaging as the Yankees tossed a few grains for not putting up a fight. Sure, the Phillies saved $36 million in the cost-saving efforts while Abreu and Lidle helped the Yankees go 36-24 on the remainder of the seaosn and watched as Boston tumbled 24-35 in that same stretch. The Yankees won the division but lost to the surging Tigers in the first round of the playoffs.

1.89 wpa | Greg Maddux | rhp | 12 starts, 73 innings, 6-3, 3.30 era

July 31st, 2006 - The Dodgers were staring up at the entire National League West at the trade deadline in 2006. Even though they were at 50-55, the only baseball team that resides in Los Angeles proper were not too far removed from the front-running Padres, separated by just 5 games. Convinced that this deficient was not insurmountable, Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti traded shortstop Cesaer Izturis, who was hitting .252/.302/.353 through 32 games in the season, to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for the future Hall of Famer. The Dodgers won 8 of Maddux's 12 starts and went 38-19 following the trade (the best record in that time in the majors). The Dodgers finished tied with the Padres but were announced as the Wild Card victors. The New York Mets manhandled the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs as Maddux went 4 innings for the loss in his only start.

1.86 wpa | Fred McGriff | 1b | 208 plate appearances, 12 home runs, .282/.383/.559

July 22nd, 2001 - The Lovable Losers were 60-42 with a comfortable five game lead over the Houston Astros in the National League Central when they traded AAA-lifers Manny Ayala and Jason Smith to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for the 37-year-old Crime Dog. While McGriff's offensive performance was about the only positive thing found inside the Friendly Confines as the Cubs imploded nonetheless and finished the season 28-32 - thirteen and a half games behind the Cardinals and Astros at 88-74. The following season the Cubs received 4.23 wpa from McGriff as the franchise spiriled downward concluding 2002 with a 67-95 record.

1.76 wpa | Ugueth Urbina | closer | 38.1 innings, 3-0, 1.41 era, 6 saves, 1.51 pLI

July 11th, 2003 - It's rare that a team trades mid-season for a relief pitcher only to have that pitcher be wildly impactful to the team's success but the Marlins were blessed with their return in 2003. South Florida's first professional baseball team was sitting comfortably in 4th place in the NL East, 13.5 games behind the leading Atlanta Braves, when it was determined the team needed to upgrade their bullpen if they expected to compete for a playoff spot. The Rangers were at 38-53, dwelling the the cellar of the AL West and looking to purge whatever parts might provide a return. Closer Ugueth Urbina happened to be one of them. Urbina had saved 26 games for a lousy Ranger team and his 4.19 era didn't appropriate reflect his true abilities. The Marlins packaged four prospects including future All-Star Adrian Gonzalez (who the Rangers would later trade to the Padres for Adam Eaton) and an Urbina-infused Marlins team went 43-26 the rest of the season. Urbina was well worth the half-season investment, solidifying the bullpen as the set-up man for closer Braden Looper then assumed the closer's role in the Marlins' World Series run, throwing 13 postseason innings accumulating 4 saves in that duration.

1.72 wpa | Jermaine Dye | of | 265 plate appearances, 13 home runs, .297/.366/.547

July 25th, 2001 - Billy Beane and the Bay Area East Baseball Club found themselves 16 games behind the record-setting Seattle Mariners at the end of July in 2001. Oakland's only post-season hope to fend off the Wild Card contenders in the American League. The A's absconded with Dye, convincing the Royals to accept Neifi Perez and talked the Rockies into agreeing to take on three prospects. Oakland finished the remainder of the season 48-13, thanks to Jermaine Dye's performance, and the A's completed the with the second best record in the majors at 102-60 to secure the Wild Card berth. Oakland was escorted out of the playoffs in the Derek Jeter and the Yankees (or more appropriately because of Jeremy Giambi's inability to slide on a close play at home plate). Dye would play three more seasons in Oakland including a great effort in Oakland's divisional series loss to the Minnesota Twins in 2002 where he hit .400/.429/.650 in 20 at-bats.

The Third Base Trade Candidates

It seems to be a shared conclusion between the frequently warring Hatfield Twins media and the Maccoy Twins blogosphere to agree that the line-up needs an injection of a right-handed bat that can handle left-handed pitching. Neither Craig Monroe nor Delmon Young have lived up to expectations in that regard and Michael Cuddyer's timetable of return is still up in the air. Looking at the Twins' third baseman's slugging compared to the American League average leaves no doubt:

Slugg. as 3B	Twins	AL	Diff
2005	.394	.428	-.034
2006	.374	.442	-.068
2007	.323	.427	-.107
2008	.371	.424	-.054

As you can see the Twins have experienced a slight rejuvenation in the position but has seen it creep northward only since they brought up Brian Buscher who is slugging .410 compared to the .292 of Mike Lamb, the offseason acquisition and opening day starting third baseman. The natural position to acquire a power-hitting right-hander at a reasonable cost would be third base. In the past four seasons, the Twins have been highly deficient in the power category at the hot corner. Who are some of the trade targets on the market?

Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners | 29-years-old

Contract: $12-million in 2008, $12-million in 2009 (Has limited no-trade clause with 8 teams)

vs. LHP - 2008	PA% vs LHP	BB%	K%	HR/PA	avg	obp	slg	lhp-rhp slg diff.
Beltre	22.9%	17.7%	8.0%	22.5	.351	.467	.554	+.144
AL RHB Avg	48.7%	10.0%	16.2%	38.2	.269	.345	.426	+.023

Validity? La Velle E. Neal reported recently that the Twins front office made the inquiry regarding Beltre to the remnants of whatever is left of the Mariners front office after the Bill Bavasi fallout to whomever was available to answer the phone. There is no indication as to how far the trade discussions went. Perhaps they spoke to a janitor.

What Will It Take? In terms of liquidable parts on the Mariners roster, Beltre might fetch the highest ransom on the roster. Contrary to what is written by Twins fans in various comments on Strib blogs, it will take more than just offering Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez and Brian Duensing. The Mariners are in need of pitching to bolster their farm system which is one of the commodities that the Twins have an abundance of. If you look at USS Mariners' Future Forty list of the franchise's prospects, you realize that besides those prospects that are currently occupying the bullpen at Safeco, the organization is extremely thin for cheap pitching in the near future. Seattle is committed to Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista through 2009. Sixty percent of the Mariners rotation is 12-29 with only Washburn and his 4.95 era the only one under 5.00. Those three are due a collective $30.35-million in 2009 with Washburn and Batista coming off of the ledgers after that season which leaves the Mariners with King Felix Hernandez and the possibility of Erik Berdard (if he is resigned after his contact expires after this season). With RA Dickey, the knuckleballing Rule 5 pick nabbed from the Twins this past offseason, assuming some of Bedard's starts while he is on the disabled list, the ideal of adding Bonser or Hernandez to the deal might appeal to the Mariners as they struggle to divvy up innings among failing starters. Bonser is still young enough to have the Mariners consider accepting him into their rotation. Hernandez would just digest the innings until the miserable season at the SoDo ballpark concludes. So that would leave the Mariners looking beyond 2009 which would require some of the young arms developed by the Twins system.

Why? Obviously the Twins haven't been able to acquire the third base package at TJ Maxx. Mike Lamb looked good on the rack but didn't fit right once we brought him home and eventually he worked his way from starting third baseman to taking up valuable space on the roster when Brian Buscher was recalled from Rochester and produced in the way they Twins expected Lamb too. There are several options of course, using an inexpensive and passable platoon of Brian Buscher and Matt Macri - a combination that may be satisfactory but would never propel a team deep into the post-season. Not only would Beltre aide in this season's post-season run, but the biggest appeal is that his $12-million dollar contract for 2009 does not look as outlandish as it once did when he was signed in 2005. The Cubs are due to write a check for nearly $16-million to the 30-year-old Aramis Ramirez who is hitting .253/.349/.387 against lefties and is ranked 24th among major league third basemen according to the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus (which is a stark contrast to his 2007 season where he ranked 4th overall). Beltre is ranked 2nd overall defensively among third baseman behind Scott Rolen. A season and a half of Beltre is worth the prospects and $12-million when you contemplate the cost of purchasing that kind of talent on the free agent market.

Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres | 26-years-old

Contract: Through 2008 at $0.41. Arbitration eligible. Currently has 1.08 years of major league service.

vs. LHP - 2008	PA% vs LHP	BB%	K%	HR/PA	avg	obp	slg	lhp-rhp slg diff.
Kouzmanoff	29.3%	4.4%	22.3%	28	.311	.366	.534	+.132
NL RHB Avg	35.4%	10.0%	15.9%	35.4	.275	.352	.440	+.046

Validity? Based on heresay and speculation. The Padres have super prospect 24-year-old Chase Headley who is, by all accounts, a better defensive third baseman with a higher upside and are in the market for major league ready pitching. The Padres' GM Paul Depodesta on his blog addressed that the Padres should actually be sellers - a fact shared by 80% of the Padre Nation.

What Will It Take? Similar to the Mariners, the Padres have two aging pitchers whose contracts are expiring at the end of this season. Certainly Greg Maddux might Brett Favre everyone and keep coming back and the Padres might pony up to resign Randy Wolf for any tour of duty, but the organization could also use a Boof Bonser addition to eat some of the innings this season. Bonser might find the confines of Petco Park to be beneficial to his pitching style. Past 2008, the Padres have two solid arms in double-A San Antonio, Will Inman and Scott Garrison, who are both throwing well in the Texas League, turning the legal drinking age this season but could possibly stand one more season of minor league experience in 2009. Another one of the aforementioned Missions' rotation-mates is the 24-year-old Matt Buschmann also pitching extremely well. In fact, Inman, Buschmann and Garrison are first, second and third among strikeout leaders in the League. On top of a Bonser or a Duensing, it would probably require a Jeff Manship (or at least a propsect in high-A or lower) to be added to the deal.

Why? Kouzmanoff is young and inexpensive and mashes left-handed pitching. That is about the gist of it. He doesn't have any patience so the higher on-base percentage is due to his high average on batted balls in play and not due to being able to draw a walk. His peripherals in that respect are closer to Delmon Young than Adrian Beltre who would wait and draw a walk. His defense is suspect-to-terrible. He received an A- for his ability to charge a bunt but is limited in his movement towards short. If the Twins think they can get Kouzmanoff to understand the strike zone better (which hasn't happened with Young or Carlos Gomez), Kouzmanoff would be a less expensive addition than Beltre. Then again, the Twins have been burned by the bargain shopping lately and might be better suited investing a bit more for Beltre. However, targeting Kouzmanoff and dealing with Paul Depodesta might be a way to get reliever Heath Bell (50 innings, 21.1% k%, 1.78 pLI) to fulfill that bullpen need in a one-stop shop.

Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies| 28-years-old

Contract: Through 2008 at $4.38-million. Arbtration elegable. Currently has 3.07 years of major league service.

vs. LHP - 2008	PA% vs LHP	BB%	K%	HR/PA	avg	obp	slg	lhp-rhp slg diff.
Atkins	20.9%	6.0%	3.6%	11.8	.461	.494	.789	+.388
NL RHB Avg	35.4%	10.0%	15.9%	35.4	.275	.352	.440	+.046

Validity? The Twins had made several investigative phone calls last year around this time to see if there was anything the Rockies desired. The word was the they were asking for the moon for him - even with uber-prospect Ian Stewert ready to produce the same at Coors but for what will be a fraction of the price. The asking price may have been steep considering the Rockies were only 5 games out of the NL West race at the trade deadline and felt like they could compete (rightly so). This season with 8.5 games between them and the NL West front-running Diamondbacks, the idea that the Rockies will part with Atkins at a reasonable amount is not far-fetched.

What Will It Take? Prior to the Cleveland Indians' collapse and subsequent in-season rebuilding, there was plenty of speculation that there was a move to be made between the two franchises - as Casey Blake was not the third baseman of the future and once crown-jewel Andy Marte is essentially an afterthought. The speculation was that the trade would require the Indians to part with Aaron Laffey (or Jeremy Sowers) as the centerpiece of the trade. The desire behind Laffey is that the Rockies are obviously focused on acquiring groundball pitchers to offset the homer-friendly Coors Field. You can bet the first words out of the Rockies' mouths will be, Nick Blackburn, who has the history of being a groundball pitcher in the minor leagues. At this juncture in the season Blackburn might be close to untouchable. Outside of Blackburn, Brian Duensing is basically a slightly older verison of Aaron Laffey, but gets slightly fewer groundballs, but might be passable as a trade candidate for the Rox. And Zachery Ward is a slightly more erratic (10%) Duensing with the ability to get the strikeout (20%) as well as the groundball (57%) but the 24-year-old is experiencing double-A for the first time this season so he is less than major league ready.

Why? The power is hard to argue with but it could also be Coors Field induced as well. Like his lefty-righty split, his home-road split is just as pronounced as he is slugging .189 points lower away from the Mile High City. He is still an elite candidate but you can believe that he wouldn't be fetching nearly as high of a ransom had his value been based on hitting at Dodger Stadium or Progressive Field all this time. At the same time in his career Atkins has hit a home run every 31 plate appearances at Coors and hit a home run every 25 plate appearances on the road. Even if Atkins proves that Coors was his performance enhancement, Atkins would still be under the control of the Twins only through the 2009 season, at which point he becomes a free agent, and then the Twins regain one prospect back through the Free Agent Draft.

The Friday Flotsam

* The PiPress's Tom Powers is suggesting the Twins pick up the recently jettisoned Richie Sexson to address several needs, most notably the ability to hit left-handed pitching. This, of course, would mean that the Twins would have to do the same to one member of their roster as the Mariners did to Sexie. Mike Lamb seems to be a logical candidate as the Twins have an overwhelming amount of players that can handle third base plus the left-handed Brian Buscher who is produce in the way the Twins wanted Lamb to when he was signed in the winter. One obvious reason that the Twins wouldn't release Lamb is that they are still committed to paying him $3 million dollars in 2009. Even at the cost of discarding $3 million plus and adding the 34-year-old Sexson who may or may not be washed up, the Twins might be desperate enough to execute a move such as that. Craig Monroe, the right-handed bat the traded for in the off-season, was acquired because he was hitting .260/.311/.467 in his career against lefties but is hitting a paltry .127/.225/.225 in 80 plate appearances this season. Sexson has had better career average against lefties (.265/.369/.510) and is doing better against lefties this season, hitting .344/.423/.623 in 71 plate appearances. Sexson would be limited to designated hitter but could also displace first baseman Justin Morneau for a night off (however Sexson has an atrocious glove, ranked 30th among major league first baseman according to the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus). Using Sexson ONLY against left-handed pitching would be the ideal deployment, however, Geoff Baker with the Seattle Times reports that the main reason to cut Sexson was his "body language" displayed when manager Jim Riggleman limited him to left-handed pitching. "I think he would have given us power immediately against left-handers," Riggleman said. The cost of adding the right-handed dh against left-handed pitching and late-innings pinch hitter to the roster would be approximately $4 million-plus (on top of the $390K league minimum payment), the amount the Twins would owe Mike Lamb, and the possible addition of someone who is unsatisfied with their role. BUT the Twins wouldn't have to package anyone in a trade (like they did in the futile Phil Nevin deal). Is this a desirable acquisition?

* Ragging on Sid Hartman is like shooting fish in a barrel of petroleum jelly...with a hand grenade. It really isn't sporting. He is to sports reporting what People magazine is to news. Nevertheless his longevity and "close personal friends" have kept him in print even though his columns have turned into uninteresting, rambling talking points introduced by his trademark "Well,". Today his column title ("Morneau sizzles at the plate, but also impresses with his glove") sucked me in via the TwinsGeek blogroll. Before I get to far off in this tangent, I want to begin by saying I do believe that Justin Morneau has developed into a solid defensive first baseman. He cannot handle the hard hit grounders between him and second or him and the foul line the way converted shortstop-cum-first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz could but Morneau has become a vacuum when it comes to the low-throws and picks. (Then again, I feel that having a first baseman that cannot contain a majority of the low throws and throws in the dirt is as useful as having a shortstop that can't pivot left for the doubleplay. It should be in the job description.) His ability to cover ground in foul territory has seemed to expand since his earlier seasons as well. Bottom line is that whatever range is sacrificed in the field is more than regained through his power and his ability to hit for a high average. Sid's justification for Morneau's candidacy for a gold glove is fielding percentage - a statistic that is as antiquated as the medium in which Hartman writes for. I would go into the complete details of why it is a faulty meter in this diatribe, assuming that most readers that have found themselves here at OTB have a good comprehension on why fielding percentage is a junk metric. According to the Hardball Times revised zone rating statistic, Morneau is eighth among AL first basemen at .709. Like it's predecessor fielding percentage, revised zone rating is a better yet incomplete statistic. The overall encompassing measurement is the one created by John Dewan. The Fielding Bible Plus/Minus has Morneau ranked at 15th among major league first baseman with 0. Casey Kotchman of the Angels, on the other hand, leads American League first baseman with a +12. Daric Barton, Lyle Overbay and Kevin Youkilis all have rankings better than Morneau. I do believe that Justin Morneau is a high-quality first baseman defensively but he is hardly a glove glove candidate.

* LEN3 wrote that the Twins do not have an 8th inning guy in the wake of two consecutive losses attributed to the bullpen. He indicated a very good point that the trade market for solid middle relief will undoubtedly be overpaid for. SBG's ubelman made a quick post that echoed the same sentiment. Without a doubt, the Twins have all the components to make an outstanding bullpen but lack the pitcher (Neshek) that would put it over the top. Acquiring it on the open market before the trade deadline would most likely cost the organization dearly. Last year when Boston traded for Eric Gagne they gave up Kason Gabbard, David Murphy and Engel Beltre. In 18.2 innings of work, Gagne produced a 6.75 era and opponents were hitting .325/.393/.463 in 89 match-ups. The Red Sox gave Gagne his walking papers prior to this season but were three prospects short when gaining -1.58 wpa in those 20 appearances. It would be more beneficial for the Twins in the long run to exhaust the search for an internal candidate before attempting to make a trade.

* The disbelief behind Nick Punto's play is quite staggering. Who could have predicted this? Oh yeah, me. I might as well have tried to forecast that gas prices would decline to under a buck a gallon or predict that Pauly Shore was destined for an Oscar in 2009 for the reaction it got me when I wrote it originally. I'm not saying that Baseball Prospectus should have me on the payroll, but still, have to pat myself on the back a little. Is Punto really a .320/.378/.460 hitter? No, but he isn't a .210/.291/.271 hitter either. He had extremely bad luck mostly because his .257 batting average on balls in play was the lowest among qualified batters in the American League - a direct result of him hitting line drives only 12% of the time. This season he might be one of the luckiest batters in the league riding a .369 batting average on balls in play with FEWER line drives (11%). Want another prediction? It's not sustainable but it is not entirely out of the question for him to finish close to his 2006 numbers.

* Watching Ron Gardenhire emerge from the dugout to argue with the umpire after questionable calls is getting as predictable as a band returning to the stage for an encore at a concert. Fans half-heartily cheer when Gardy gets going full-steam but it feels forced. It is expect. After finishing the book on Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver, "Weaver on Strategy", I have been somewhat enlightened as to some of the various reasons cited for why a manager would dance the charade of arguing with an umpire. Some of the reasons are legit, some are just out of sheer frustration. And sometimes the umpires egg you on - like in this recorded instance in a game against the Detroit Tigers. Personally, I love Weaver and the majority of his strategies but you have to love the way he handled the media the most. (warning: potty mouthery in the links).

Carlos Gomez versus Jacoby Ellsbury: A Statistical Comparison

at the plate:

	pa	xbh%	k%	bb%	avg	obp	slg	isop	wpa
C. Gomez	377	24.2%	23.6%	3.7%	.266	.301	.370	.104	-1.37
J. Ellsbury	339	22.5%	14.7%	9.4%	.268	.341	.375	.107	0.24

The basic slashes of the two speedy centerfielders are comparable, outside the on-base percentage (obp). In terms of average and slugging, Ellsbury holds a slight edge over Gomez however the Red Sox outfielder owns Gomez when it comes to contact (15% vs 24% strikeout rate) and drawing walks (9% vs 4% walk rate). Nearly a quarter of Gomez's hits go for extra bases (24.2%) and Ellsbury has practically matched it (22.5%). Neither player's standard lines are very impressive. Both having batting averages barely north of the American League average (.264) while Gomez's on-base percentage is 31 points lower than the rest of the league (.332), Ellsbury has parlayed his plate discipline (9.4% bb%) into an on-base percentage nine points higher than the league average. This added ability of reaching base has led to a positive win probability added (wpa) for Ellsbury (0.24) as Gomez has detracted from the Twins with his negative contribution.

batted balls:

	babip	infield hits	bunt hits	gb%	fb%	ld%	hr/fb%	pulled%	middle%	opposite%
C. Gomez	.340	13	21	41.9%	41.0%	17.0%	5.3%	46.2%	27.0%	26.6%
J. Ellsbury	.303	13	6	49.6%	27.2%	22.0%	7.2%	32.2%	31.8%	35.8%

What we can deduce from the batted balls comparison is that Gomez is riding a higher batting average on balls in play (babip) thanks to his ability to leg out bunt hits. 50% (24 out of 42) of the time that Gomez attempted to bunt for a hit, he reached first. Comparatively, Ellsbury carries a 75% bunt rate conversion (6 for 8). The difference is that Gomez has attempted 32 more bunt hits than Ellsbury. Subtract Gomez's 21 bunt hits (assuming that he fails to reach on those opportunities) and he would be carrying a brutal .204 average. Do the same for Ellsbury and he is sporting a poor but passable .245 average.

The American League average on line drives is .726/.721/.992. This is an occurrence that happens on 19% of balls in play. Understandably, the line drive is trajectory with the highest rate of success. Ellsbury is producing line drives 22% of the time compared to Gomez's 17%. Ellsbury holds a distinct advantage over Gomez in this department. Similarly, the fly ball is the least effective method to obtain a hit, something that happens 44% of the time in the American League. American League batters are hitting .215/.209/.512 when they do this. Like Willie Mays Hayes in Major League, Gomez pops up far too frequently for a lead-up, speed-based hitter as 41% of the time he unleashes a fly ball. Gomez is hitting .202/.202/.372 on his.

Directionally, Gomez is a pull-hitter. Nearly 50% of the time Gomez is yanking the pitch to the left side. This, indicated by his .406 average on balls in play, is his best route to getting a hit. Gomez's average when going back up the middle (.279) and to right (.230) are both lackluster. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is the definition of a spray-chart, peppering the field in an almost even distribution. He has the seen the most success hitting the ball back through the box (.346) but has also fared well pulling the ball to right (.305). The direction where he deposits most of his balls, opposite field, also has his lowest success rate (.264).

performance as a leadoff man:

	pa	obp	team runs	team runs per inning when leading off	runs per inning by team when not leading off	difference	runs/rbi
C. Gomez	140	.286	91	.65	.53	+.12	23/2
J. Ellsbury	129	.326	88	.68	.54	+.14	29/4

Leading off not only happens at the start of the game but the subsequent appearance leading off each inning require a genuine table-setter. This statistic was tracked first in Bill James' Gold Mine and is updated on his website. His definition states that this shows "how well the player’s team scored when the player led off the inning, compared to how they scored when others led off innings. It also shows how well they scored when the player reached base leading off, and when he failed to reach base leading off." Certainly the ability to score runs per inning is heavily contingent of the quality of the following hitters in the order but it also is dependant on the speed and base path prowess that a player has. You can't average nearly a run an inning if you can't get the lead-off hitter to scamper around the bases. In 2007 the New York Mets Jose Reyes led the major in innings led of with 321 plate appearances. Under those circumstances, Reyes held a .330 on-base percentage yet the Mets only score .58 runs per inning when he was leading off. This was far from the 2007 leader, Jimmy Rollins, who led the majors with .85 runs per inning when he led off for the Phillies. In 140 occasions this season Carlos Gomez has led off an inning for the Twins resulting in 91 runs for the team in that time which equates to .65 runs per inning. Ellsbury holds an edge over Gomez in this department as well. In his 129 times leading off an inning, Ellsbury has scored 88 runs averaging .68 runs per inning. Once again, Ellsbury has bested Gomez as a lead-off hitter, producing .14 runs per inning more for the Red Sox on average a silver more than Gomez's .12 contribution to the Twins.

(Side Note: The sabermetric movement has been vocal for Joe Mauer's relocation to the lead-off spot. This provides the Twins best hitter and on-base guy with added plate appearances over the course of a 162 game season. Based on evidence, this might be beneficial to the Twins offense. In 56 plate appearances this season Mauer has led off the inning for the Twins. In that time, Mauer holds a .464 on-base percentage - a number that is substantially greater than Carlos Gomez's .286. When Mauer leds off the inning for the Twins, the team scores .68 runs.)

zone awareness:

	pitches	pitches per pa	taken%	swung%	taken for ball%	taken for strike%	swung - in zone%	swung - ooz high%	swung - ooz low%	swung - ooz inside%	swung - ooz outside%
C. Gomez	1281	3.39	45%	55%	66%	34%	64%	8%	13%	3%	13%
J. Ellsbury	1240	3.65	58%	42%	64%	36%	75%	2%	6%	8%	9%

This is where the minutia, each pitch, explains the statistic provided above. There is an obvious correlation to these numbers and the aforementioned difference in their strikeout rates and walk rates but it could enlighten us to why Gomez is more of a fly ball/ground ball hitter and Ellsbury is more of a ground ball hitter. First, the two vary in their plate approach vastly. Gomez is more of a swinger (55%) while Ellsbury practices patience (58%). Oddly enough, even though Gomez is far more impatient than his Boston counterpart he has taken more pitches for balls than Ellsbury. Again, here is where another schism between the two players reside. Seldom does Ellsbury take a hack at a pitch that finds its way out of the zone. 75% of the balls Ellsbury has swung at have been inside this zone. This plate awareness is the reason behind 72% of Ellsbury's batted balls either being a ground ball or a line drive. Conversely 36% of the time Gomez has taken swings at pitches out of the zone. As you will note, he has swung at 13% of balls that have been low and 13% of balls that have been outside (there has to be some overlap to account for all of the low-and-away sliders that Gomez has swung at). The low pitch will undoubtedly led to ground balls or fly balls. Judging from Gomez's uppercut swing I would be inclined to believe that is why he is lofting more balls than driving them.

on the bases:

	sb%	runs gained through sb	net bases gained*
C. Gomez	72%	0.28	+3
J. Ellsbury	83%	3.32	+28

*From BillJamesOnline.net encompassing opportunities to advance

from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home and 1st to home and the time executed in addition to grounded into doubleplays.

Carlos Gomez has speed. That goes without saying. He has performed admirably on the turf where he has recorded 13 stolen bases, an 86% success rate on the artificial substances. Natural grass, however, might as well be a swimming pool for all the good it has done to his foot speed. Fifteen times Gomez has tried to swipe bases and only 8 times he has been successful (53%). His runs gained through his 21 stolen bases has barely amounted to a quarter of a run. All the running has done little for the Twins offense. Ellsbury has speed as well. As opposed to Gomez, Ellsbury has thrived on the crushed brick dirt, stealing 33 of his 35 runs outdoors. This movement has added 3.3 more runs for the Red Sox.

Furthermore, the BillJamesOnline.net has charted the amount of opportunities to go from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home and 1st to home combined with the amount of doubleplays grounded into and stolen bases. They have found that Ellsbury has a great deal more bathpath awareness as he has netted 28 bases as Gomez has only attained 3 additional bases. Naturally, the age difference comes in to play but far too often I have heard that Gomez's base-running indiscretions are credited to his lack of professional experience. It should be noted that Gomez has played 114 more professional baseball games than Jacoby Ellsbury.

patrolling centerfield:

	innings	range factor	revised zone rating	throwing errors	fielding error	kills	expected outs	outs made	plus/minus	mlb cf rank
C. Gomez	730	3.27	.939	4	2	2	262	270	+17	1
J. Ellsbury	299	2.50	.951	0	0	0	92	93	+3	13

Defense is the category in which Gomez outshines Ellsbury by a landslide. Currently under John Dewan's Fielding Bible Plus/Minus rankings, Gomez is the number one centerfielder in the major leagues. Ellsbury defensive talent has landed him at number 13. Gomez has an overzealous arm (a strong arm at that) has led to four throwing errors but has also erased two base runners at the same time. Base-runners have had 88 opportunities to take an extra base and only 49 (.557 pct) ran on Gomez's arm. The scouting reports highlight Gomez's arm which is why more runners do not attempt to take the extra base however, I question his accuracy at this juncture in his career. Nevertheless the two kills and the .557 advance percentage ranks Gomez's arm as 18th among centerfielders. Ellsbury has zero kills and has had 26 of 39 base-runners advance on him (a .667 advance percentage) which slots his arm as the 30th overall among centerfielders.

As indicated above in the base-running statistics, both outfielders have notable speed. This has manifested itself through covering added ground. Gomez's speed has given him a hefty range factor and has allowed him to track an additional 8 outs that were not expected to be converted. Ellsbury, in his fraction of time in center, has tracked down only one additional out.