One Special LOOGY, Coming Up.

As the modern baseball roster keeps evolving, we find a greater role for specialists. Managers frequently deploy left-handed pitchers for as little as one pitch to (hopefully) dispatch some of the game's more fearsome left-handed batters. These LOOGYs, once a rarity among the bullpen staff whose origins date back to the Kansas City A's, are now commonplace. While most do not adhere to the strict definition - 1) More than 20 appearances, 2) less than 1.20 innings per appearance and 3)fewer than 20% saves per appearance - all bullpens have a player that flirts with this measurement. And now, much like the "Closer Boom" of the turn-of-the-century, LOOGYs are cashing in on the free agent market. Does this seem reasonable economically? After all, these players are typically throwing in 40 to 60 games per year and are asked to obtain one out - which is usually a very favorable match-up (lefty on lefty). Yet general managers are throwing more cash at these guys as if they are vital to winning when obviously the limited usage makes these players appear to be better.

Consider J.C. Romero.

As the Twins began to embark on a new tradition of winning, the franchise found themselves with a solid nucleus of talent in the bullpen. In 2002, as a 26-year-old, Romero finished the season that brought the Twins back to the playoffs for the first time since 1991 with a 9-2 record and a extremely low 1.89 era (era+ 236). He averaged just 1 inning per appearance. In the next seasons Romero averaged 1.15, 0.99 and finally 1.15 innings per appearance between 2003 and 2005. Before 2005 started the Twins signed him to an ambitious 2-year/$3.7 million dollar contract (with a $2.75 option year). Pointing to both his erratic tendencies on the mound and thought to provide general clubhouse malaise, the Twins unloaded him to the Los Angeles Angels for Alexi Casilla. Once in the AL West, the Angels called upon him to throw more innings. His average went from 1.15 in 2005 to 1.31 in 2006 - a small change yet large enough to expose various susceptibility on the mound. His era rose from 3.47 to 6.70. The Angels declined his option year.

Theo Epstein and his cauldron of stat nerds in Boston recognized the value in having a LOOGY on staff and that using him in a certain capacity (say, averaging under 1.2 innings an appearance) they projected he could thrive. He was signed to a 1-year/$1.6 million dollar contract. Whether it was playing at Fenway with the looming Monster (7% hr/fb) or simply not finding his control (16.0% bb%), Romero compiled a 3.15 era (much better than his California stint) in 1.15 innings and still received his walking papers.

In the thick of a NL East pennant race, Pat Gillick and the Philadelphia Phillies took a flyer out on Romero and picked him up for a minor league contract. In the second half of the season, Romero dominated the left-handed batters and finished with a 1.24 era...while averaging 1.4 (!) innings per appearance. In the everlasting, infinite wisdom of the Phillies front office, they signed him to a large 3-year, $12-million dollar contract. As I had stated before, luck played a significant part in his second-half performance (.173 babip) and in no way did he "earn" a $12-million dollar contract. In total, Romero averaged 1.3 innings per appearance in 2007.

Cleveland touts a 25-year-old lefty Rafael Perez who has been deemed one of the better relief pitchers in the game after finishing 2007 with a 1.78 era while tossing less than an inning an appearance (0.78). Are these accolades thrown around due to his performance in what is essentially a bubble? In the next several seasons, if he is managed the same on the field and facing a diet of left-handed batters, his value will undoubtedly rise. Which is what happens when in your first full season Peter Gammons says that you "arguably the best left-handed reliever on the planet." After two more seasons, Mark Shapiro should trade him while his stock is high. Admittedly, Perez displays better stuff and could find himself working in different parameters but will not likely have the same success. There are plenty of gullible GMs looking to part with some prospects for a good LOOGY.

Another Twins example is Dennys Reyes. He's not a prototypical LOOGY, since over the course of the previous two seasons, Reyes made 121 appearances and accumulated 80 innings and, on average, the Twins used Reyes for approximately 1.5 innings per deployment. So he doesn't conform to the definition however, if Hafner, Thome or Ortiz were expected to have an at-bat in the 6th, 7th or 8th, you knew Dennys Reyes would be down in the bullpen. And the majority of the time you would want him in the game against those guys.

(Aside: I often wonder why he isn't on the DL more for neck problems because his jowls must weigh 80 lbs. Seriously. It looks like he is taking the mound with two medicine balls stuffed on either side of his cheeks. I don't know what gets closer to the ground: Neshek's knuckles or Reyes's face...)

In 2006 he made 66 appearances, finishing with a 0.89 era, and even though he proved effective enough to withstand both sides of the plate as he rendered bats useless with a .197/.259/.275 Gardenhire still only allowed him to average 1.3 innings per appearance slightly outside of the LOOGY definition. He contributed 9 win shares to the team for a bargain one-year/$550,000. The Twins resigned him to a 2-year/$2-million dollar contact.

My initial reaction what that the Twins had lightning strike with Reyes, it wouldn't likely strike twice or three times more, then again a million a season is practically chump-change in the relief market. 2007 may have had been more like 2006 for Reyes had our starting pitching been able to go deeper into games (Ponson and Ortiz struggled mightily early) and the bullpen hda key breakdowns such as injuries to Jesse Crain and finally Reyes himself who couldn't avoid the DL. That, in addition to his 2006 success, probably caused his usage to increase to 1.7 innings per appearance. Being exposed more to unfavorable match-ups led to Reyes being knocked around some. His era went up (mostly because at 0.89 up is about all it can go) and his location began to suffer (his walk rate climbed from 7.7% to 15.1%).

As pitchers and catcher prepare to report for camp, Reyes's role has not be defined. Rumors from the East Side Fishwrap indicated that the Twins had made an offer to Jeremy Affeldt for $1.5 million. One particular reason was that the lack of left-handed depth was noticable when Reyes was on the DL. Affeldt himself found success in that same role for the Colorado Rockies in 2007 as he finished with 3.51 era, no saves in 75 games and average 1.21 innings per appearance. Instead of signing with the Twins for a $250,000 raise, Affeldt took $3 million for one season with the Cinncinati Reds. As was the case with Reyes, I believe Affeldt will also be inflicted by the Reds with the burden on additional work based upon his successful 2007 campaign. Which is why if Reyes has a successful first half in 2008, Bill Smith should consider trading him to a team willing to relinquish a prospect or two. It is a seller's market for LOOGYs.

What can be determined out of this? Naturally, throwing less innings supplies a better chance of a serious implosion if you have one bad inning, however, if the match-ups are skewed towards the pitcher (lefty-on-lefty), the advantage goes to the hurler. One thing is for sure is that cheap retreads (Reyes, Affeldt) and minor league prospects (Perez) can thrive in this role if managed carefully.

Desparately Seeking Relief.

The recent signing by the White Sox of 34-year-old Octavio Dotel to a multi-year, $11-million dollar contract highlights once again an important facet that has allowed the Twins to remain a successful franchise in spite of the non-profit-like budget: Internal Relief Development. Because of Internal Relief Development, or I.R.D., the Twins have not had to invest valuable payroll towards what has become one of the most costly (and volatile) acquisitions on the free agent market.

"Relievers are like the stock market — you just hope you can hit on one," Colorado Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd told USA Today. "Bullpens are almost impossible to build. There is supply and demand, inconsistency of performance. You never know what you are going to get in a part of the roster that's increasingly important."

And O'Dowd did well assembling one of the better bullpens in 2007 considering he sunk nearly 23% of his payroll ($12.636 million) in Brian Fuentes (era+ 155), Latroy Hawkins (era+ 140), Jeremy Affeldt (era+ 137), Jorge Julio (era+ 122), Manuel Corpas (era+ 231), and Matt Herges (era+ 162). As the season ended, two free agents were looking to cash in on their recent success. In a maneuver that echoed his belief in the quote above, O'Dowd chose to let Hawkins (who has since signed a 1-year, $3.75 million dollar contract with the Yankees) and Affeldt (who recently inked a 1-year, $3 million dollar deal with the Reds) go unabated to the free agent market. What could be said about those two is that they greatly out-performed any estimates based on their previous seasons and O'Dowd knew this. And with the defense built at Coors, O'Dowd is betting that his I.R.D. graduates (like Ryan Speier and Corpas) will provide similar results and for the same asking price per year as Hawkins, sign Luis Vizcaino, a more consistent performer, for two years.

Bottom-line is that pitching is expensive, starting or relief, to purchase on the open market. USA Today reported that as of two weeks ago, teams have spent a combined $122 million on bullpen help gearing up for 2008. Unfortunately, as you will see, it would appear that these franchises have allocated more money for what are sure to be disaster relief efforts than FEMA during hurricane season.

Even with that wisdom that O'Dowd expound, organizations across the league have invested far too much in set-ups and LOOGYs who have become nearly as expensive as their closer brethren:

• The Royals signed 37-year-old lefty Ron Mahay to a two-year, $8-million dollar contract. Mahay is cashing in on a season where he limited left-handed batters to a .189/.248/.292 split while with Texas and Atlanta. However, the two previous seasons Mahay's left-handed opponents hit .240/.336/.458 in 2006 and .302/.338/.571 in 2005. What's more is that there is no substantiating evidence to suggest that Mahay turned a corner last year. When analyzed, it would appear that Mahay was the recipient of good defense and luck as his batted balls in play was near .270 (his groundball rate has ranged from 43% to 52%). In the previous three-seasons combined (2005-2007) lefties batted .234/.302/.419 against him. In comparison, during that same period, lefties hit .203/.283/.256 against Dennys Reyes. The difference is that while the Twins will owe Reyes $1-million dollars next year, the Royals owe Mahay $3-million more.

• The Phillies re-signed J.C. Romero to a 3-year, $12-million dollar contract because of his low 1.24 era in 36.4 innings of work. This statistical sampling is by no means large enough to valuate one's performance. Romero, as Twins fans will remember, had erratic tendencies and 2007 was no different. His walk rate was 16.8%, nearly double the league average of 9.0%, with Boston and Philadelphia. Romero is expected to set-up for Brad Lidge although his stats really indicate that he would thrive better as a LOOGY. In the previous three seasons, Romero has had a much better split against left-handed batters (.202/.309/.292) then the right-handed counterparts (.279/.400/.445). The Phillies will discover this in 2008 when his lower than average babip (.173) corrects itself.

• The Brewers signed righty Eric Gagne to a one-year, $10-million dollar contract. It could be that the Doug Melvin did some online shopping at Baseball-Reference once they lost Francisco Cordero to the Reds and acquired his number one comparison. This acquisition was made under the guise of Gagne being a closer, still, he has been far from the once reliable closer he once was after spending significant time in and out of operating rooms (elbow and back), not to forgot being mentioned in a certain Mitchell Report. Gagne didn't have a terrible year last seasons split between the Rangers and the Red Sox - his era was a hefty 6.75 in 18 innings with Boston and he struck out 24.7% of batters faced while issuing walks to 10.1% of them. He converted 16 of 20 save opportunities (80% success rate) and maintained a era that was 121 points better than the league average. That being said, Gagne is a big gamble. In the previous three seasons he has thrown only 67 innings and 52 of those came last year.

Avoiding this cost by promoting from within has benefited the Twins not only by saving money but also by not partaken in these types of acquisitions, the Twins have managed to steer clear of large sums of money dedicated to bullpen calamities. Granted, there are some blemishes within the Twins pen, notably Juan Rincon and the lack of left-handed depth. A team that is rich in pitching resources can take the opportunity to make small-risk signings in the free agent market (like Dennys Reyes) and then sign premium pitchers to long-term contracts (like Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain and hopefully soon Pat Neshek).

AL Central Round-Up. 1/19/08.

Chicago White Sox

• Yet another former Royals reliver is ready to sign with the White Sox. This time it's the 34-year-old Octavio Dotel. In attempts to rehab a combustible bullpen, Sox General Manager Kenny Williams has been rumored to offer a two-year, $11 million dollar contract to the righty. In the previous season, Williams tried to pacify relief troubles presented at the end of 2006 with the power-arms of Mike MacDougal (Royal), Matt Thornton, David Aardsma and Andrew Sisco (another Royal), which only led to a bullpen in 2007 that finished 19-25 with a 5.47 era. The lone bright spot was closer Bobby Jenks who finished with a 2.77 era and a batting average against of .198. Dotel, who split 2007 between Kansas City and Atlanta, finished the year with a 29.7% strike out rate and a 8.7% walk rate in 33 appearances. However Dotel can be spanked hard. In that span, Dotel allowed 29 hits and 41.3% of them when for extra bases.
• Like Cleveland after 2006 who signed Keith Foulke and Joe Borowski, the front office of the White Sox have determined that they need to fortify the bullpen, unfortunately for Williams, through the expensive reliever free agency. After signing former Brewer Scott Linebrink to a four-year, $19 million dollar contract, the Sox have turned to Dotel who will make $11 million for half the years as Linebrink. The allocation of $10.25 million in two players next season just highlights how important a pipeline of pitchers developed from within is to an organization. While Joe Nathan of the Twins stands to make $5.25 million in 2008, for the price of Linebrink/Dotel - two underwhelming relievers - the Twins have Nathan, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain and Dennys Reyes. For just a year's worth of Dotel, the Twins can deploy Matt Guerrier, Glen Perkins and Pat Neshek and still have change left over. Keeping a steady flow of pitching prospects ready to substitute for anyone in your bullpen with the same results is the best route when trying to keep your budget down. The Sox, meanwhile, have been trading away a good amount of prospects this offseason including pitchers Gio Gonzales and Fautino de los Santos. Gonzales lead the organization with 185 strikeouts while de los Santos was the tops in era (2.65) and opponents average (.163).
• Joe Crede will return to US Cellular for at least part of the year after avoiding arbitration by signing a one-year, $5.15 million dollar contract. The media has speculated with the emergence of Josh Fields (who is making $400k this season), Crede has been deemed expendable. After injuries sidelined him after 167 plate appearances, it was obvious that Crede's power was depleted after finishing with a .101 isolated power average while hitting about the .200 mark in 2006 and 2005. Crede flashes very good leather so he will make an excellent trade candidate for those seeking glove love at third as evident by his revised zone ratings. In the two seasons prior to his back injury, Crede finished 3rd and 5th among AL third baseman in RZR category and also was displayed range as seen in his Out of Zone numbers. He also supports his glove by carrying a strong bat as well. Provided that his back is fully healed from surgery, Crede should attact plenty of suitors interested in an affordable third baseman. While I am not dismissing Mike Lamb's abilities just yet, it would be nice to have a well-rounded third baseman who can add both offensively and defensively to the line up.

AL - 2006	RZR	OOZ	OPS
Brandon Inge (Detroit)	.780	49	.776
Mike Lowell (Boston)	.765	43	.814
Joe Crede (Chicago)	.760	57	.828
Adrian Beltre (Seattle)	.721	61	.792
Eric Chavez (Oakland)	.717	37	.786

AL - 2005	RZR	OOZ	OPS
Eric Chavez (Oakland)	.789	62	.794
Bill Mueller (Boston)	.772	65	.799
Brandon Inge (Detroit)	.766	82	.749
Melvin Mora (Baltimore)	.755	61	.821
Joe Crede (Chicago)	.737	79	.756

Cleveland Indians

• The Cleveland Plain Dealer has an excellent profile on Indians prospect Jordan Brown. First baseman Brown has won two consecutive league MVPs. In 2006, at high-A Kingston, Brown finished .286/.349/.469 while gaining extra bases in 36.0% of his hits coupled with a solid walk rate (9.6%) and a low strike out rate (11.1%). For an encore, Brown was moved up to double-A Akron in 2007 where he improved to .333/.421/.484, hit for extra bases in 30% of his hits and significantly improved his plate discipline (12.5% bb%|9.9% k%). Brown has been drawing comparisons to Sean Casey and Mark Grace for his plate approach, but his Casey comparison might be the most telling. Like Casey who found himself blocked by mighty Jim Thome, Brown is currently blocked by Ryan Garko, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. He will begin 2007 with Buffalo but could be relocated to another club when/if the Indians begin needing help in other positions.
• Weird fact: Koreans apparently do not use a pitch count. Indians Tommy John recovering outfielder Shin-soo Choo said that his ligament damage could have been traced back to his pitching days in Korea where in one stretch, Choo threw 44 innings in five games in one week. That's an average of 8 innings for those 5 games.
• The Dealer's columnist Paul Hoynes who answers readers questions in his column 'Hey, Hoynsie!' recently responded to this inquiry:

Q: Hey, Hoynsie: Would the Indians have any interest in Kevin Mench? His career seemed very promising, but has really dropped off. - Richard Foderaro, Parma.

A: Hey, Richard: Let me get this straight, you want the Indians to acquire a player that's on the downside of his career?

OK, I got that out of my system. Several years ago the Indians had interest in Mench. I'm guessing that has cooled like his power production.

• To me, the answer begs the question: what are you basing "power production" on? Again, as someone who is biased for the acquisition of a guy like Mench who can absolutely mash left-handed pitching, my view may be some what skewed. If you are looking at his standard numbers like rbis and homers, yes, it appears that he is in a decline. However when you look closer at the quality of the at-bats and hits provided, you see a different story. First, Mench's strikeout rate went from 12.0% in 2006 to 6.8% in 2007. Secondly his power did decline slightly in 2006 but rebounded in 2007. In 2005, Mench hit for extra bases in 41.4% of his hits. In 2006, split between Texas and Milwaukee Mench hit for extra bases in 32.5% of his hits. Last year, he improved to 40%. Both Trot Nixon and David Dellucci finished behind Mench in these areas.

Detroit Tigers

• I don't know if I would refer to it as an ill-advised signing, but once again this indicates the necessity of being able to develop left-handed starting pitching internally to avoid high-payouts to mediocre pitchers like Nate Robertson. 30-year-old Robertson inked a three-year, $21.25 million dollar deal avoiding arbitration. He stands to make a modest $4.25 in 2008, but will earn a substantial amount more in the next two seasons: $7 million in 2009 and $10 million in 2010. In the previous three seasons, Robertson has yet to finish above .500%. ESPN describes his "best" season as the one where he finished 13-13 with a 3.84 era in 2006 - a season where he was accountable for 20% of the losses. His walk rate is typically right around league average while his strike out rate is slightly below average. This means that he is heavily reliant on his defense to make plays. In the "best" season, his low era was reflective of a low babip (.282) which had been consistently above .300 and his FIP (4.77) was nearly a run higher than the era (3.84). The 2008 salary might be a bargain, but the subsequent $17 million might prove to be a burden when trying to unload a pitcher when he fails to produce at the 2006 season levels.
• Detroit Free Press's (and Baseball America contributor) John Paul Morosi has revealed his list of Top 10 Tigers prospects, highlighted by rhp Rick Porcello who has yet to have any professional experience. Five of which were added AFTER the trades with Florida and Atlanta.

Kansas City Royals

• Nothing of substance has emerged from Kansas City, except several rumors tying free agent pitcher Bartolo Colon to Kauffman. USS Mariner analyzed the potential of signing a player like Colon who had missed significant time in 2007 and called him the "hidden gem of the free agent pitching" market. A deal that could be reasonable considering his recent stretch on the disable list that has scared other suitors away and would put him within the Royals' price range. Colon in the rotation along with Gil Meche and sophomore Brian Bannister could give the Royals one of their better three starting combinations in the rotation since Gubicza, Saberhagen and Liebrandt 20 years ago in 1988. It still wouldn't make the Royals a contender, especially when considering the league that they are in, but it does give a reason to go to the K before renovations start.
• Avoided arbitration with Gload, Buck and de la Rosa. The fans rejoice.

Minnesota Twins

• The broken arm of Jose Mijares is going to sideline him for four-to-six months. The lefty had superficially good season for New Britain where he went 5-3 with a 3.57 era in 46 appearances. Mijares is a bit wild and would have had to have shone up his control had he wanted to advance to Minnesota. He had a 17.5% walk rate which he did offset with a 27.3% strikeout rate. Rochester would have been a more obtainable goal in 2008.
• Avoided arbitration on Morneau, Kubel and Rincon...still waiting on Cuddyer and Guerrier.
• Joe Christensen tries to context the Santana saga by rehashing the Chuck Knoblauch trade.
• Seth has an interview with Kevin Slowey.

Kubes

Baseball Prospectus's Joe Sheehan included Kubel in his list of 2008 Breakout Seasons candidates:

Jason Kubel: While playing in the Arizona Fall League in 2004, Kubel, then 22 and considered one of the best hitting prospects in the game, suffered a devastating knee injury that cost him the entire 2005 season. Although he came back and played in ’06, he wasn’t remotely the same hitter. Most notably, Kubel’s post-injury strikeout rate has been much higher—147 in 835 PA, versus 193 in 1770 PA prior to the injury. That’s not just a result of playing at higher levels: that’s evidence of damage to the engine.

What we saw in ’07 was Kubel finally get back to the hitter he was before the injury. In the season’s first two months, Kubel struck out 33 times and walked 11 in 165 PA. In the next two months, those numbers were 21/10 in 148 PA: a big drop in strikeout rate and K/BB. Over the last two months: 25/18 in 153 PA. Kubel, a disciplined hitter coming through the minors, regained that discipline in ’07. His batting average and power followed. He’s 26 this season, and may actually be the Twins’ best hitter during it; better than Morneau, better than Mauer.

I have long been an ardent supporter of Jason Kubel so I tend to whole-heartedly agree with this statement. He has been a batter that has showed a balanced approach at the plate in the minors. In 2003 at Ft. Myers, Kubel walked in 10.2% of his plate appearances and struck out in 11.5%. The following year, Kubel split 541 plate appearances between double-A New Britain and triple-A Rochester and finished with walks in 9.7% of his plate appearances and strike outs in 10.9% of them. If anything, this shows that Kubel had no history of free-swinging nor being overpowered by pitching when advancing levels. Even his brief 2004 call up to Minnesota, where he had 67 plate appearances with similar results (8.9 bb% | 13.4% k%) fuels the notion that Kubel is a very disciplined hitter.

Fast forward to the Arizona Fall League in 2004, following a massive leg injury in which his entire 2005 season would be lost. After what amounted to an entire year dedicate to rehabilitation, Twins farm director Jim Rantz told Baseball America in September 2005 that: "[Kubel's] on his own timetable. Missing a year like he has is one of the most difficult things for a player to go through, but to his credit he's worked extremely hard to battle through it. You never know how a player is going to rebound mentally from injuries, but with Jason there's never been any doubt of where his desire is. It's to be back on the field."

Analysts began saying that Jason Kubel would be having a breakout year in 2006, and hoping that advances in modern medicine would off-set the severity of injury, I did too. Unfortunately his 2006 numbers told a completely different story: He struck out in 19.1% of his plate appearances and his walk rate was a measly 5.2%. On top of that, his pop was gone too. In 2003 and 2004, Kubel had an extra base hit rate of 23% and 39% while slugging .400 and .590, respectively. When he did get hits in 2006 he managed just 18% of them to go for extra bases - an indication that his knee lacked the leverage to both drive the ball from and round the bases hard.

"There was a point where my left knee was getting tired and sore and I couldn't stay back on it, and in my right knee I couldn't run. That affected everything," Kubel told the Sporting News in February 2007, "I wasn't able to swing. I wasn't able to get out of the box quick enough. I wasn't able to get down to the base. So it was kind of tough, just trying to do everything all upper body."

2007 started essentially where 2006 left off:

-In April, Kubel struck out in 16.4% in his 73 plate appearances and coaxed walks in only 4.1%. While he was hitting line-drive at a 30% clip, none of them were finding turf.

-In May, his power improved as his isolated slugging average grew from .087 to .146 in a month where he hit 2 home runs. Still his strike out rate in his 92 plate appearances was near 23%.

-June became a time where he began to turn a corner. In his 69 plate appearances, Kubel struck out in only 11.6% of them and drew walks in 7.2%. His isop was up to .203 after hitting 3 home runs. He finished the month with a .266/.309/.469 line, by far his best of the year.

-His June performance earned him more plate appearances in July where he added 4 more home runs and completed the month with a .225/.288/.437 line.

-By August it was clear that the pre-injury Kubel had returned as seen in his 35% line drive rate, his 12.5% walk rate and his best line yet .364/.438/.509.
-In September he reaffirmed any non-believers by smacking 3 home runs, peppering the field with line drives in 24% of his balls in play and drawing a season high walks in 13.3% of appearances. His .325/.404/.584 batting line in September would be one of which would leave impressions on the front office for the entire offseason.

His final line of .273/.335/.450 would have look much wimpier had he not turned the corner mid-summer. Even with his tumultuous start, he still managed to finish with what amounts to a major league average of 9% walk-rate and a 17% strike out rate.

I believe that Kubel will have what amounts to a "breakout season" if the organization gives him every opportunity to play everyday - but there is the rub. With Craig Monroe and Delmon Young (not to mention defenseless Mike Lamb at third base) it is quite easy to visualize Ron Gardenhire playing music chairs with his line up, especially in the designated hitter position. This will certainly imped on Kubel's ability to redevelop his keen eye at the plate.

Starting With What's Left in the Twins Farm System

The most expensive position to buy on the open market is left-handed starting pitching. This is the cause behind the Tigers, Braves and Diamondbacks all signing aging lefties to large, one-year contracts (Rogers - $8 mil., Glavine - $8 mil., and Johnson - $10 mil.). When it becomes apparent that there are no internal options, a franchise begins to overvalue the player and, in desperation, ends up spending too much for this commodity either through trades or free agency. Look no further for trade examples than the offers made for Johan Santana and Erik Bedard. The Mets are thinking of trading five of their top ten prospects while rumor has it that the Mariners have dangled Adam Jones as a bargaining chip for Bedard. If the Indians bring CC Sabathia into next season without getting him a contract extension, he might help replenish the Cleveland farm system with whomever he is traded to.

In the most recent example of abuse of the free agent market, the San Francisco Giants overpaid and are now committed $14.5 million dollars to Barry Zito in 2008 (which accounts for 16.1% of the total 2008 payroll). Prior to being signed by the cross-bay rivals to the richest pitching contract ever, Zito had a decent year on the surface: he finished with over 200 innings, a 16-10 record with 151 strikeouts and 3.83 era. After constantly generating similar results in his previous seasons with the A's, most assumed that Zito had the wherewithal to repeat those same statistics.

Following the acquisition, Peter Magowen - the Giants managing general partner - said this to the San Francisco Chronicle this during the signing press conference: "I'd say this is the most important signing we've had since we first signed Barry Bonds late in 1992," Magowan said. "It means that much to this franchise, to the future of this franchise. We don't make deals like this every other year or every five years. It takes a special kind of player to make the kind of commitment we've made. We're aware, I think, fully, of the risk involved of signing a pitcher to a contract as long as this one. But if you look at Barry Zito's track record, he hasn't missed a start in the last six years. When you look at his age, which is only 28, and most importantly when you look at his work regimen, which is very rigorous, in the offseason, those three factors mitigate the risk."

The Giants, an organization that has had its share of bad transactions (i.e. Pierzynski, Benitez), so it comes to no surprise that the top brass failed to compile an adequate due diligence report otherwise what they would have found that the left-handed starting pitcher was actually a number three starter in disguise. Cloaked in the confines of a very pitcher-friendly ballpark in his first seven seasons, Zito had both solid offense and defense assisting him to his 102 victories. His strikeout rate had declined since his Cy Young campaign, his walk rate had always been around league-average and, most telling, his era was consistently UNDER his FIP. This is often an indication of someone getting assistance through defense (which the A's had) or simply luck (low babip) rather than having overpowering stuff. To illustrate, Zito had finished consecutive seasons with FIPs of 4.46 and 4.94 but with eras of 3.86 and 3.83 (diff. -0.60 and -1.08) in his two seasons prior to the end of his contract with Oakland. In those same seasons, Johan Santana finished with FIPs of 2.96 and 3.09 and eras of 2.87 and 2.77 (diff. -0.09 and -0.32). The smaller gap between his era and FIP leads one to believe that Santana's low era has far greater legitimacy than Zito's.

Whether or not Beane was aware of this as the A's let him test the market, he probably knew that the going-rate for left-handed starters was too high to buy in free agency or even attempt to bid with the large-revenue clubs. Besides, the A's had left-handed prospects such as Dallas Braden and Dan Meyer who could possibly provide the same output at a fraction of the cost. To a money-conscience franchise like Oakland, that is life or death. The bridge between the two organizations couldn't be any wider. San Francisco has been absorbing money through the quaint ballpark on the Bay, while Oakland does everything it can from hemorrhaging money including trading pitchers Hudson, Mulder and Heren to maximize their return.

The Twins, meanwhile, have been just as capable of minimizing the need to scour the free agent market for left-handed starters (the one they did, Kenny Rogers, was relatively inexpensive). The ability to have left-handed starters allocated for their first six years of major league time frees up money that would have been spent on pitching to other resources. Aside from major league ready Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, the Twins have five bonafide left-handed starting pitching prospects ready to make the transition in the next year or three if Bill Smith decides to either a) trade Santana (which could bring us MORE cheap left-handed starting pitching depending on this partner) or b) keep Santana and let him be bid on for more money than the Catholic church.

1) Brian Duensing - 24-years-old - AA/AAA (2007)

In those two levels, Duensing finished with a 15-6 record (.714 wpct%), a miniscule 5.3% walk rate and a 17.9% strike out rate. He has made small struggles while ascending to the next level. In 2006, he began the season with Beloit with a era-FIP diff. of -0.01 in 70 innings but finished the year with New Britain and had a era-FIP diff. of -0.99 in 49 innings. This past season, the Twins had him begin at New Britain where he had a diff. of -0.11 while his stint in Rochester earned him a diff. of -0.79. I fully expect him to have similar results next year split between Rochester and Minnesota while in 2009 he could be a solid #3 in the rotation.

2) Tyler Robertson - 20-years-old - A (2007)

Seth's Twinkie Town Twins prospect poll has Robertson as the #2 prospect in the system and with good reason: he has been dominating his competition. At 20-years-old, Robertson finished 2007 in a league where he was two years younger (19) than the rest of the league on average (21.5) and still owned them with a 29.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. When contact was made, he was getting groundballs 52% of the time and he sported a 2.29 era | 2.33 FIP. If an era-FIP is any indication of stuff-to-performance, his in the Midwest League was -0.04. His eta for Minnesota appears to be 2009 (as a September call-up).

3) Ryan Mullins - 24-years-old - A+/AA/AAA (2007)

Mullins climbed three levels last year, making a pinnacle at Rochester. His overall 7-9 record with a 3.93 era does not do his season justice. Of 667 batters faced in 2007 in 155 innings, Mullins struck out 20.2% of them while walking 5.9%. Sure, some of it came at Fort Myers where he was older than the surrounding players but he also had good starts at New Britain where his 3.99 era | 3.40 FIP indicates that he threw better than his standard statistics reflect. A strong showing in AA/AAA next year and he might be able to make an appearance with the Twins in 2009 -- otherwise maybe a strong trade candidate for those less fortunate organizations.

4) Michael Tarsi - 21-years-old - A (2007)

Having already been profiled in the OTB 2007 draft review, personally I like his 68% groundball rate and 0% home run rate the best. Starts in A+ in 2008 but could make rapid progression if he replicates his 2007 success. Eta 2010.

5) Henry Reyes - 22-years-old - Rookie/A (2007)

Split his season between Elizabethton and Beloit. Did significantly better in Appalachian League than the Midwest league (but in his defense he only made 1 start in 2 appearances for Beloit). Finished 7-2 (.700 wpct%) with a 3.43 era. Good peripheral numbers, 8.0% walk rate and a 28.2% strike out rate, but his era-FIP diff. in Elizabethtown of -1.27 (2.87 era | 4.40 FIP) may be an indication that his success is short-lived.