Lilly's in for $40 million

When the Texas Rangers resigned Vicente Padilla for a hefty sum of $34 million/3 years it was a direct response to the contract the Phillies offered frequent DLer Adam Eaton ($24.5 million/3 ars). These transactions sent the price for adequate arms higher than Snoop Dogg's tour bus. What transpired next was the unreasonable domino effect in which clubs with a ton of cash - desperate for pitching - buy anything that sounds legit. This is what explains the Lilly signing. When the Chicago Cubs purchasing lefty Ted Lilly for $40 million/4 years, Chicago was a team in dire need to reduce the number of runs allowed. Nobody has informed Chicago that Lilly has the unlikely probability of reducing the number of runs Chicago gives up then Bono has for eradicating hunger in Africa. The Lilly contract isn't as unreasonable as some of the other budget-busting acquisitions that Tribune Company has been involved in this off-season (see: Soriano, Alfonso) but this one proves that no one is taking any careful consideration either. The problem is, the same money could have been used to buy an equivalent starting pitcher or pitchers for same amount; minus the name recognition. At the turn of the last century, the Cubs had the best starting trio in Zombrano, Wood and Prior since Hudson, Mulder and Zito of the Oakland A's. Wrigley is built for power pitchers. Lilly is not a power pitcher. The overpaying for a 30 year old starting pitcher who spent his career with an ERA (4.60) higher than the combined league average from 1999-2006 (4.56) for $1o million a season is unjustifiable. Of course, any stathead knows that judging a pitcher by his ERA is like judging a Beauty Pageant by the talent portion. Unfortunately for Lilly, his talent isn't necessarily pitching. For the past three seasons with a higher walks per 9 innings than the league average in addition to offering the third highest walks total in the AL last season. Base runners at a place hitters' park like Wrigley isn't really the right direction to go for a pitcher trying to bring his career ERA below the league average. The past six season Lilly dished out more than the league's average of Home Runs per 9 innings. Last season he average 1.4 home runs a game while the Cubs averaged 1.3 staff-wide in the homer friendly confines of Wrigley. A higher walks and home run frequency added to the rotation? How is that suppose to improve your pitching staff?

Royally Screwed?

It hasn't been a light task of transforming the Kansas City Royals into a contender. In recent times there hasn't been a more prolonged rebuilding process this side of the Tigris and 2007 seems to be more of the same. With a current $55 million earmarked in the 2007 season Royals GM Dayton Moore has approximately $18 million to play with. There would be a tendency for the Moneyball pundits to suggest bargain shopping, invest that $18 million in bolstering the pitching staff with hurlers who can locate the strike zone without the aid of a GPS device (against the Twins last season in Kauffman, the Royals issued 27 free passes in one series). Assessing the inflating rate for the cost of arms this year (see: Eaton, Adam 3 years/$24.5 million), Moore naturally agreed that the franchise would be frugal this offseason as not to get caught up the bidding excitement. Unfortunately, Moore fancies himself a bit of a day trader. The thought of Moore rummaging through sales bins was quickly extinguished when it was announced that the Royals are finalists for the Gil Meche sweepstakes. For $8 to $10 million a year for three to four years (and lets face facts, it will take a higher range for Meche to pass up offers from the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays) the Royals can have a mid-rotation starter while leaving only $8 million to address a faulty bullpen. Item #1 would be to improve the starting rotation. The Royals minor league affiliates are primed with prospects that may need another season of conditioning or at the very least, gingerly brought along in the pros (anti-Jimmy Gobble). The recent acquisition of the Mets farmhand Brian Bannister has given them yet another option of youth/prospect (see also: Gobble, Hovacher, Buckner, Rosa). One way to accomplish this affordable would be by resigning Mark Redman, an inning-eater that gives up few walks (2.9 per 9 innings in his career). This would be an inexpensive solution to keep runners off the base paths. Item #2 would be to find a legimate closer and bullpen. Last season the Royals bullpen blew 31 of 66 save opportunities. The hard part to believe is that the Royals actually had 66 save opportunities. The recent jettisoning of the hard-throwing-but-just-a-bit-outside prospect Ambiorix Burgos (dealt to the Mets for Bannister), who had 12 of the blown saves in 2006, is a step in the right direction, much like admitting you're an alcoholic is the first step to recovery. Bringing in free agents like former closer turned right handed specialist Danny Kolb ($2.0 million/season or less) and lefty set-up man Steve Kline ($3.0 million/season or less) would help solidify the ailing bullpen. Meanwhile, tapping a rehabbed closer like Dustin Hermanson ($2.0 million/season) might buy the Royals a few extra wins. Simply a low-risk stopgap, these signings would bridge the roster until yet another generation of Royals pitching prospects are field-ready.