Any hope for Nishioka?

In his conference call to the season ticket holders, Twins general manager Bill Smith made no promises for last offseason’s marquee signing, Tsuyoshi Nishioka:

"We've gotta figure out shortstop, and that may involve going out and getting another shortstop. We've got [Alexi] Casilla, we've got [Trevor] Plouffe, we've got [Tsuyoshi] Nishioka -- we've gotta find somebody that can be a stable, starting everyday shortstop."

So, the man they were willing to commit $9 million to over three years is now destined to try to earn a job in the spring. For the majority of fans, this suits them just fine. Better yet, he can go hang out with the center field trees – wherever they are now.

When he was initially signed, I broke down some of the available footage of Nishioka’s Japanese playing days. At the time, I caution that the video clips, compiled by Beverly Hills Sports Council (also Nishioka’s stateside agent), were very likely cherry-picked to serve the purpose of inflating his value. Even with this in mind, the majority of his swings seemed impressive as the ball was jumping off his bat. Yes, he pulled off with his front hip on the left-side but overall, Nishioka was driving the ball on a rope to all fields. The thought was that his foundation seemed solid enough to support a somewhat smooth transition.

Of course, the transition was about as smooth as Stearns County bathtub whiskey.

Truthfully, I was a bit stunned at what showed up in a Twins uniform. This version of Nishioka resembled nothing of the player that was poking line drives every which way but loose.

Early in the season, he struggled to stay in with his front side while batting left-handed and opponents picked him apart by pitching him away. He constantly made weak contact. In fact, his .014 isolated power average was the lowest against right-handed pitching in all of baseball (among those with a minimum of 130 plate appearances). According to Inside Edge’s scouted data, they have Nishioka marked with a .135 well-hit average against righties – lower than Drew Butera and Rene Rivera.

When Nishioka was finally shutdown in September for the year, manager Ron Gardenhire provided his assessment of how to better the Japanese middle infielder:

"His upper body is not as strong as I think it can be. He can gain upper-body strength, and that is going to help him with his swing. Perry has a good program written up for him, and I know Nishioka [already] has a good program over there."

While adding upper body strength is a good thing (so long as he doesn’t focus too much on his glamour muscles), Nishioka’s problems at the plate seem to stem from his legs, not his arms. Take a look at these two side shots of his swing from the left side, one from his Chiba Lotte days and one from this past season against New York:

There is a noticeable difference that stands out to me which may be a source of his offensive incontinence as a lefty - his launching point. The launch point is when a hitter’s weight is shifted back before he launches forward towards the pitch. Let’s take a look at some of Nishioka’s swings from the left-side throughout the years:

In the first clip, an image of him from the ‘06 NPB season when Nishioka was a 22 year old in his fourth year of professional baseball, you see him implementing a very aggressive leg kick and in position to drive his front leg forward.

In the second clip –one from Nishioka’s latter Chiba Lotte days – we find that the launch point is scaled down a bit. Still, what you see from this position is that Nishioka is driving his front hip forward as a significant amount of his weight is poised on his back leg.

Meanwhile, this year, Nishioka seems to have once again refined his mechanics and reduced the amount of lift in his front leg (or at least varied the angle in which he brings his front leg back). He also is shifting less weight on his back leg thus staying tall more throughout his swing. The end result appears to be more arm and wrist in his swings than engaging his lower half and weak contact overall.

Now, to speculate, there are plenty of reasons why Nishioka would pare down his stride. The first being due to the increased velocity in America versus Japan – simplifying his swing would aid him in making more contact. The aggressive approach would also leave a hitter more vulnerable to off-speed pitches as well. Perhaps he made the adjustments on his own.  Another theory is that the Twins encouraged Nishioka to trim down his lower half for the same reasons listed above. The club prides itself on putting the ball in play and may have wanted Nishioka to focus on contact and using his speed (or rather the once projected speed). Regardless of the why, it has made Nishioka one of the worst offensive producers the Twins have seen in a long time.

Ideally, for someone like Nishoka, more effort is needed from his legs and hips in order to generate some semblance of pop. This is very similar to Alexi Casilla. Dating back to 2010, Casilla had a pared down swing from the left-side, relying mostly on his upper body to do the work. Unfortunately, this resulted in more bouncers and slow rollers than anything else. At some point, Casilla incorporated his legs more and he had much more success:

“Casilla is able to engage his lower-half much better. Because of that, despite putting plenty of balls on the ground, we see the ball jump off his bat much better than it had at the beginning of the season. So, while grounders still become outs at high percentage of the time, putting them into play at a greater velocity is bound to turn into hitters more frequently than those of the slow bouncer variety.”

So, is Nishioka hopeless? Did the Twins just piss away $9.25 million in salary and another $5.3 in securing his negotiating rights?

One winter ago everyone assumed Casilla was cooked. His small adjustment proved that he could compete, posting a 779 OPS from mid-May until his mid-summer injury. Looking back at the old footage of Nishioka, I can see him capable of having a much improved season in 2012.

Without touching upon the atrocious defense – that’s a whole ‘nother problem right there – if the organization hopes to salvage some of the investment spent on Nishioka on the offensive side of the ball, the focus should be on getting him to return to his pre-major league days. 

Twins targeting another player from the Far East?

In his recent Star Tribune chat, Joe Christensen speculated that the Twins would target free agent pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma this winter:

Christensen’s statement may be based on some internal rumblings or it may be a residual of the Twins pursuit of him last offseason. Last winter, the Twins came in a distant second to the Oakland A’s for the rights to negotiate with Iwakuma and his agent. Minnesota offered $7.7 million to the Rakuten Golden Eagles but was thwarted when the typically miserly A’s submitted a bid of $19.1 million.  

After Oakland secured the rights, the negotiating part took a wrong turn for the Bay Area organization. According to reports, Iwakuma and his agent were seeking a “Barry Zito-like” contract (seven-years, $126 million) while Billy Beane went all Moneyball on them and offered a four-year, $15.25 million deal. Unable to work out a deal, Iwakuma went back to the Golden Eagles for the 2011 season.

Iwakuma, now an outright free agent this winter negating the need for a posting fee, has hired a new agent and figures to be one of a handful of talented pitchers on the market. Outside of CC Sabathia and CJ Wilson, Iwakuma likely falls in the same category as Edwin Jackson and Mark Buerhle (minus the experience). If he prices similarly to those two, he could be looking at a contract worth $8-to-$11 million per year.

The 30-year-old right-handed pitcher has some legitimate sink which would incite plenty of ground balls. Like the rest of the Twins’ cadre of pitchers, he fits the bill as a pitch-to-contact type with his 89-to-92 mile per hour sinking fastball. He comes equipped with a variety of pitches and speeds, using a curve, slider, splitter and a shuuto. The results in his Nippon career have been solid – a career 3.25 ERA with a 107-69 record while strikeout out 18.4% of batters faced.

Pitch F/X wizard Mike Fast broke down Iwakuma’s 2009 World Baseball Classic performance and found that the majority of his offerings were about average but that he had an above-average splitter:

“His split-finger fastball averaged 86 mph, and he got three inches of hop and eight inches of tail on the pitch due to spin.  Adding in the effect of gravity, the splitter dropped about nine inches relative to his four-seamer.  He threw the splitter 31 percent of the time to left-handed batters and 20 percent of the time to right-handed batters. It was his main strikeout pitch, accounting for five of his nine strikeouts in the last three games of the WBC.  Batters swung and missed at 34 percent of his splitters, which is an excellent mark.”

With that vast repertoire and an out-pitch like his splitter, his ceiling could be like that of the Angels’ Dan Haren, who has average velocity but throws a variety of pitches and has a devastating split-finger fastball.

The question is: Would he be a good fit with the Twins?

Without a doubt, the Twins need to address the depth of their rotation. Last year’s team floundered when several members were sidelined over long periods of time (Baker, Blackburn and Liriano) and were hurt even further when those who were expected to perform simply did not (Liriano and Duensing). This put a lot of stress on a weak bullpen. In theory, Iwakuma, who has worked deep into games in Japan, throwing 48 complete games in his career, would be a decent solution.

But that doesn’t necessarily make him the ideal solution either.

The second concern is regarding targeting another pitch-to-contact arm. While I have no qualms with the method, it only works provided the right infrastructure is in place. Last season showed that when the infield defense is substandard, those types of pitchers who allow balls to be put into play suffer heavily. If the team is not willing to upgrade defensively around the diamond, pursuing an arm that is capable of missing bats is likely a better investment at this point.

Finally, how much does the Twins front office trust their scouting staff when it comes to pulling talent out of Japan? The ballad of Tsuyoshi Nishioka should already give them pause. Sources say that the scouting department was none too thrilled by Nishioka’s skills overseas but yet the staff signed off on his ability before handing him a $9.25 million deal. Would they actually return to that well so soon after Nishioka’s disastrous year?   

In the end, the Twins will likely be looking for another starter and Iwakuma will be a name you hear repeated again this offseason. 

Offensive success is possible at Target Field

Much like Festivus on Seinfeld, the conclusion of the Twins season always brings forth the “airing of the grievances” – most of them center on the big ballpark downtown.

This year, Delmon Young, fresh off of punishing the Yankees, took time to explain his recent outburst (6-for-19 with 3 HRs including the game-winner in Game 3) and why he underperformed in the season’s first-half. According to Young:

“Target Field changed my whole field of hitting. I usually tried to use the middle of the field, and if I pulled, I pulled, and if I went the other way, I went the other way.

At Target Field, when those balls turn into can-of-corn outs and I was fighting for playing time over there, I couldn’t afford to have a flyout to deep right field. I had to try to pull the ball to get a base hit.”

This is not the first time Young sounded off about his former team’s configurations. Last year, Young groused about the same issues, telling reporters that if he tried to hit the ball to left or left-center the ball would die.

When you review the 2011 home run hit chart by right-handed batters at Target Field, you will notice that Young was absolutely correct in his observation:

Just three balls were hit by right-handed batters that cleared the fence to the opposite field and another five to center field. Comparatively, in 2009 the Metrodome had 20 home runs by right-handed bats which went out to right and center fields. Clearly, if you are going to have right-handed power in Minneapolis, it needs to be as a pull hitter.

Reviewing his batted ball splits, it is no small wonder that Young suffered at Target Field and felt the need to turn on the ball. In the past two seasons, Young has held the lowest line drive rate to the middle of the field (14.1%) among qualified hitters. While he was successful at sneaking those grounders back through the box, plenty of his fly balls were likely stood up in center field. 

JJ Hardy, who struggled offensively at Target Field, last year hitting .252/.313/.340, had told reporters in the spring following his trade to the Orioles that in 2010 he was trying to “stay on top of the ball and go the other way more.” The Orioles hitting instructor took one look at this approach and said – to paraphrase – “aw HELL no.” In Jim Presley’s eyes, Hardy was a power-hitting shortstop, one that he witnessed first-hand while coaching in Florida and Hardy was crushing for the Brewers. So Hardy made some adjustments and began turning on pitches ferociously. The end results would make any Twins fan sick to their stomachs as the castoff shortstop popped off for 30 home runs and a .491 slugging percentage. 

Would simply having Hardy pull the ball more have paid off for the Twins? It is hard to say but this method does not always bear fruit at Target Field as Danny Valencia proved.

When Valencia put up his impressive rookie numbers in 2010, he had demonstrated that he was able use the big part of the field – hitting line drives to center at a 22.5% clip. This aided him at home where he hit .386/.418/.561. This year, Valencia was called out by his manager for trying to “swing for the fences” and abandoning the technique that had him producing well. Valencia wound up pulling the ball more and hitting line drives to center at a significantly lower clip (15%). He ended up hitting more home runs at home (9) but hit .257/ .307/.400 at Target Field overall. In this instance, focusing on pulling the ball was an obvious detriment to his game.

Young is far from the only Twin to make this observation about the right field region. Justin Morneau made a fairly public spectacle by ranting about the fencing to the Star Tribune almost immediately after the Twins were bounced from the playoffs a year ago. When he returned to action this season following his concussion, part of his issue at the plate was that he was pulling off on the ball with his front hip. Although I attributed it to rust back in May, perhaps this was an ill-fated attempt to try to yank the ball down the line more where lefties have had more home run success.

Jason Kubel said that he changed his approach in 2010 too, attempting to pull the ball down the line but ultimately wound up going back to his previous method when all he had to show for it was a few extra home runs. This season, he said he worked on hitting more line drives (which he did to some extend) and this resulted in more doubles rather than the long fly outs in the fly-killing power alleys. Through his first 102 plate appearances he was hitting .351/.392/.511 with nine doubles to just two home runs but then his numbers leveled off as he started to elevate more fly balls for long outs:

"That's why when I started out this year, I was more contact-oriented, focusing on hitting line drives all over the place. It was working out. But now I'm starting to get balls in the air, and I've hit 'em good. But they're outs. So it's tough. I'm not as big or as strong as Jim Thome; I can't just do that."

Kubel’s first two months of the season showed that the key to having success is simply keeping the ball on a rope. Now, as an impending free agent, there is a strong chance that he will not be with the team in 2012 and once again, the Twins will have to have someone new decipher how to hit in this ballpark.

What does this mean for the Twins and their offseason shopping list?

If the Twins are looking for power this offseason that needs to come in the form of hitters who have shown pop as pull hitters but mostly have had success using the middle of the field. As we have seen the past two seasons, players who have a tendency to drive fly balls to the power alleys and deep center are likely going to be demoralized for 81 games a year. Target Field can reward dead-pull hitters or those who hit line drives to the middle of the park (one of the reasons Valencia had strong numbers in ’10).

One such free agent that may fit that bill is Derrek Lee. True, in his first foray into the American League he appeared overmatched when hitting .246/.302/.404 in 364 plate appearances in Baltimore. However, his second-half with Pittsburgh was fairly strong. Plus, he exemplifies the attributes that just might play well at home: Dating back to 2009, Lee has the sixth-highest line drive rate up the middle (22.9%). 

Another name on the free agent list that may be intriguing is Magglio Ordonez. While he has suffered a rash of injuries and is aging quickly, he showed life at the end of the season as he hit .385/.397/.477 in his final 19 games. Similar to Lee, Ordonez has a high line drive rate in the middle of the field (22.6%) since 2009.

Most teams target players whose skill set will play to their home-field advantage. The Red Sox gave Adrian Gonzalez a butt-ton of money because of his ability to drive the ball the other way. As a left-handed hitter, this meant that he could punch double-after-double off of the Green Monster. The Yankees traded for Curtis Granderson who they felt would perform well with the extremely short porch in right field. The Twins should recognize that their home field advantage – while not as performance-enhancing as Boston or New York’s – is the spacious center field. By targeting up-the-middle, line drive hitters the Twins will position themselves well to combat opposing teams who remain flustered by the home stadium’s frustrating effects. 

Did you know...

Carl Pavano allowed 262 hits this year – which is the 169^th time someone has allowed 262 hits or more since 1961. None too impressive, right? Yet it is just the fifth time since 2000 that someone has allowed 262 hits or more – mostly because of the inning allotment necessary in addition to the patience required by the front office to allow that sort of punishment to continue. The others on that list are Sidney Ponson (265 , 2004), David Wells (266, 2000), Livan Hernandez – twice (266, 2001, 268, 2005) and Tanyon Sturtze (271, 2002). Excellent company.

Speaking of Pavano, his fastball was the second-worst in baseball last year. According to Fangraphs.com’s pitch value statistic, his fastball was 24.5 runs below average (or approximately two and a half losses). Interestingly, his regularly battery mate, Drew Butera, also proved to be quite inept when it comes to fastballs. He found himself at 23.9 runs below average when hitting against fastballs (or approximately two and a half losses). This was the worst mark in the American League.

Pavano’s 42% chase rate on his offspeed pitches was the best in the American League and second in baseball behind some guy named Roy Halladay (45%).

Ben Revere led all of baseball in grounders with a 68.5 percent ground ball rate. This has been the highest rate of bouncers hit (outside of Roadhouse of course) in Fangraphs.com’s batted ball warehouse. Fangraphs.com’s data starts in 2002. Likewise, Revere also holds the lead for fewest fly balls hit (11.6%) as well.

What’s more is that his strength was not pulling the ball this season: Revere’s .389 OPS on balls that he pulled is the lowest in baseball. Part of the reason for this is because he was terrible at making solid contact when being pitched inside. According to Inside Edge, Revere’s well-hit average on pitches inside was .036 – the fourth-worst in baseball.

Revere put 60% of the fastballs thrown to him in to play – the second-highest rate in baseball behind San Francisco’s Jeff Keppinger (61%).

Alexi Casilla (6.8%) saw fewer sliders than anyone else in baseball with a minimum of 250 plate appearances.

Michael Cuddyer’s .993 OPS versus left-handed pitching was the sixth-best in baseball.

Don’t throw Cuddyer a change-up (like many left-handed pitchers did), he crushed them to the tune of 9 runs above average (roughly one win). Overall, his .341 batting average on offspeed pitches was the fifth-best in baseball.

Nobody squared up on right-handed pitching like Joe Mauer did. His 27.7% line drive rate against righties led the majors. On the other hand, his backstop mate, Drew Butera, held baseball’s lowest OPS against righties at .403.

If you threw anything to Mauer over the midsection of the plate (horizontal), the chances are that it was thwacked pretty hard. The often-injured catcher/DH/first baseman/right fielder held a .273 well-hit average on pitches in the zone. The next closes was Boston’s David Ortiz at .217.

Drew Butera’s .449 OPS narrowly missed being the worst in Twins history thanks to a 4-for-8 outburst in the final week of the season. The honors for worst offensive season with a minimum of 250 plate appearances still belongs to Jerry Zimmerman and his .436 OPS in 267 plate appearances. For what it’s worth, Butera joins the blessed Twins hall of sub-.500 OPS members including Houston Jimenez (1984), Danny Thompson (1970), Ron Clark (1968), Al Newman (1991) and, of course, Zimmerman (1967).

The Twins had two of the three worst hitters for pitches down in the zone. Butera led all players with a .032 well-hit average while Tsuyoshi Nishioka was the third-worst at .040.

Butera’s .142 batting average on fastballs was the worst in baseball.

Battle of the soon-to-be free agents: Jason Kubel had the fifth-highest batting average on line drives in play (.817) while Cuddyer had the eleven-lowest batting average on line drives in play (.603). One thing this could tell potential suitors is that Kubel’s 2011 season was on the lucky side while Cuddyer was not nearly as charmed.

Denard Span and Jim Thome both chased after just 10% of non-competitive pitches (those well out of the strike zone) – tied for third-best in baseball.

Francisco Liriano’s ability to get strike one was horrendous this year. His 49.4% first-pitch strike rate was the sixth-worst in a season since 2002. He also threw his fastball for a strike just 53% of the time – the worst among starters.

Nearly 30% of the batters Liriano faced went to three ball counts (27% vs 20% league average). That was the highest mark among qualified starters.

When Liriano does hit the strike zone, he’s clearly hard to hit. Liriano’s 21% swinging-and-miss percentage on strikes was the second-highest in baseball trailing only Atlanta’s Brandon Beachy in that department.

Just 16% of runners Scott Baker put on base scored. That was the third lowest rate among starters.

Kevin Slowey lost 8 starts in a row. The most recent time that happened was by Boof Bonser in 2007. Oddly enough, in their respective losing streaks, they both worked 44.2 innings, allowed 59 hits each and had 36 runs scored on them.

Parmelee's September to Remember

Its funny how small sample size success can frequently send a fan base atwitter.


True, Chris Parmelee posted one of baseball’s best weighted On-Base Averages (wOBA) in the past month. He raked to the tune of .355/.443/.592 with four home runs and six doubles in just shy of a hundred plate appearances. And, all in all, it was one of the best September call-up performances in recent memory.


Still, it is difficult to project a player’s true capabilities just based on a one-month sampling – even if you are combining it with his recent minor league track record.


To be sure, there is plenty to like about Parmelee’s potential just based on his smattering of at bats this year:

• He has shown a keen understanding of the strike zone. His 28% out-of-zone chase rate was below the league’s average meaning he was not helping the pitchers’ out. Because of this, he was able to draw 12 walks (compared to 13 strikeouts).

• Likewise, he keeps his hands back to handle breaking and off-speed stuff extremely well. This led to a low swing-and-miss rate of 22% on curves/sliders along with a .813 slugging percentage as several of his balls in play went for extra bases. Not chasing breaking stuff out of the strike zone will tend to result in a smaller strikeout rate.

• Mechanically, he keeps his hands inside the ball too. This has allowed him to get around quickly on the inside pitch and drive it. Keeping one’s hands in can equate to more power from that leveraged position while incorporating the entire body (rather than swinging with just your arms).

These elements are solid building blocks for a fundamentally sound hitter. Additionally, Parmelee has also shown that he can make modifications too. Beginning two years ago, he axed his upper-cut swing in favor of a more leveled one. This yielded an almost immediate difference in his performance as he cut down on the amount of strikeouts and increased his line drive rate substantially:

 

TwinsCentric’s Nick Nelson did a thorough job of analyzing Parmelee’s cup of coffee and pumping the brakes for those who yearn for something to believe in with this organization. Nelson particularly advised about getting too amped up over his power output based on his September numbers – which I completely agree with. While Parmelee has a powerful swing and, at 24 years old in 2012, he could develop more pop, at the same time, there are plenty of similar prospects who have murdered it in a small section of the season only to be knocked back down to size.


One such extreme example is the Rangers’ Taylor Teagarden.


In 2008, the catching prospect was having a middling season in the minors but received a September call-up. Prior to joining Texas, Teagarden hit .211/.319/.374 with nine home runs in 286 plate appearances split between AAA and AA. Yet when he reached the majors he had a monster of a month, hitting .341/.426/.829 with five home runs in 36 plate appearances. Following the ‘08 season, based on his late season performance, Teagarden’s name was often cited by the Boston Red Sox as one of the potential targets to eventually replace the aging incumbent Jason Varitek. Instead, the Rangers opted to hang on to Teagarden - along with backstop partner Jarrod Saltalamacchia – only to be rewarded with a .205/.268/.356 line since then (and in a freakin’ hitter’s park, no less).


Teagarden’s story is fairly consistent of what happens to a lot of hitters that have talent but do not demonstrate the ability to respond once the competition adjusts to them. In September ’08, opponents fed Teagarden a steady stream of fastballs. Over 70% of his pitches were fastballs and the right-hander hit .407 on them resulting in an incredible value of 8.1 runs above average. Not surprising, the following season Teagarden saw fewer fastballs coming his way and, when he did get one, he was not able to do much with it. It got to the point where he was sent back to AA to figure it out.


Now, this is not to say that Teagarden’s misfortunes will end with the same results for Parmelee, but it is a cautionary tale of how, when given time to study, scouts can adapt quickly. As the Strib’s Joe Christensen pointed out, teams will eventually find his soft spot:


“[T]here are holes in his swing that big league scouts are sure to exploit by the time he starts facing teams a second time”


As it stands right now, Parmelee’s holes are so obvious it can be seen from space.


Parmelee’s biggest strengths are inside and down in the zone. In fact, lower in the hitting zone the better: According to Inside Edge, he has a .203 well-hit average on all his swing down in the zone (.087 MLB average). On the other hand, he clearly has a fairly significant hole in his swing when it comes to pitches up and over the plate:

His ability to keep his hands in also hinders his ability to reach the outer-half of the plate. In the most basic terms, step one of the opposition’s game plan would be to implement cutbacks on the amount of pitches thrown down in the zone and step two would be to feed him more fastballs up and out over the plate.


This doesn’t necessarily mean that Parmelee will experience a collapse like Teagarden did – it simply means that he is less likely of getting “his pitch” (down in the zone) and more likely to get more of those up and out over the plate. As you can see in the chart below, teams already started to focus on that area of the zone. To his credit, Parmelee displayed an adept amount of patience on the majority of those pitches – recognizing it is better to not swing at the ones he knows he can’t handle:

Overall, Parmelee’s offensive attributes are impressive. He has shown veteran-like comprehension of the strike zone, a keen ability to adjust to the breaking and off-speed stuff, a tight swing that gives him power on the inner-half and has demonstrated that he is capable of making changes. With Justin Morneau a huge question mark for next season, while he may never reach the power levels of Morneau, there is some comfort in knowing that Parmelee, who appears very close to a finished product, is readily available.

*****

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