Getting healthy a top priority for Scott Baker

Although his peripheral statistics do not really suggest there was much of a deviation from his 2008 or 2009 season, there were underlying issues that kept Scott Baker from pitching at the same level as he did in the second-half of 2009. Even though the elbow soreness wasn’t discussed as a factor until July, there are signs that it influenced his pitches dating back to the beginning of the season and throughout most of the past year.

Over at BaseballProspectus.com, Pitch f/x guru Mike Fast identified a handful of pitchers who had altered their release points – either horizontally or vertically. Fast noticed that Baker demonstrated a significant vertical drop comparative to his 2008 and 2009 seasons:

In his study, Fast did not offer a conclusion or a theory as to why he believed Baker had changed his delivery. A case could be made that Baker’s elbow pain started somewhere in the early part of the season and caused him to shift his delivery – often a mechanical alteration pitchers make to protect ailing components.   

What did this lowered arm angle mean for Baker?

After reporting some discomfort in July, which resulted in a cortisone shot, he was shut down for a spell in September. Of his condition Baker said:

"I can deal with the discomfort. But when it started to affect my pitches, I wasn't able to finish them and able to get the ball down.”

Truthfully, Baker has never been one to keep the ball down – even when healthy. He’s essentially Maverick and likes to fly in the Danger Zone, constantly elevating his pitches. Nevertheless, this method had provided him with a smattering of strikeouts as he enticed hitters to chase a high fastball. On the other hand, the constant flirtation up in the zone also meant that placement a fraction of an inch the wrong direction prompts plenty of hard contact - the kind that requires a cab ride to go fetch the ball.

What’s more is that there is a sizeable difference between deliberately going upstairs and accidentally meandering up there. There are times as a pitcher when you want to burn a letter high fastball by a hitter and other times when you want to stay down and away. By Baker’s testimony, it appears that his intentions and his actual results in 2010 were vastly different.

Below is a prime example of this. On June 27, Baker was behind in the count to the Mets’ Ike Davis two balls, one strike. Catcher Joe Mauer  sets up outside and calls for a fastball middle-away, hoping to shave the outer-half or coax weak contact off the end of Davis’s bat. Instead of reaching its intended destination, Baker’s pitch remains up in the zone and wanders over the fat part of the plate, allowing Davis to jerk it onto the Van Wyck Expressway: 

 The above clip was fairly indicative of Baker’s overall struggles with his fastball in general. In 2009 Baker was able to spot his fastball on the outer-half of the plate better and at avoiding the meaty portion of the zone. More recently, this has not been the case.

While his fastball’s velocity remained the same, Baker simply did not hit the same spots he did the previous season. Here you see in a heat map Baker’s location of his fastball against lefties. What is seen through the catcher’s perspective is that in 2009, Baker demonstrated a much greater propensity to hitting the corner of the zone away from the hitter. This past season, the majority of his fastballs resided within the zone in an easily accessible area for the hitter:

Like we saw in the Davis example, Baker may have wanted to place his pitch away like he did in 2009 but was unable to because of control issues stemming from the elbow injury.

Another aspect of his game that gave Baker fits was his slider. In 2009, according to Inside Edge, Baker allowed just 37% of his sliders to be put into play – which also happened to be the league average on sliders. In 2010, that rate increased to 46%, a noticeably jump for a pitch that is not supposed to garner a lot of contact. For the most part it is his secondary pitch. While not used nearly as much as his fastball in two-strike situations, Baker will occasionally turn to it for a strike out. Unfortunately for him, the slider wasn’t nearly as effective for him.  

On June 10^th, while facing Wilson Betemit and the Kansas City Royals, on a 2-2 count, Baker delivers a rather juicy hanging slider that Betemit uncorks on it: 

Watching Joe Mauer’s original target, you know that it was not premeditated to throw it jock-high out over the middle of the plate. Following Baker’s release point on the slider, you can see that he fails to stay on top of the ball, resulting in the pitch staying up in the zone.

Baker's elbow pain clearly had an adverse affect on his pitches. Perhaps Target Field's pitcher-friendly confines masked what could have been a disastrous season. After all, his 10.2% home runs-to-fly balls rate was his highest since his 2006 campaign. Had the Twins still been playing at the Metrodome, fans in the Home Run Porch may have been picking baseballs out of their teeth.

With less than two weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report to Florida, two of the team’s presumed starting pitchers, Baker and Nick Blackburn, are in the process of recovering from their respective offseason elbow surgeries. While not yet testing out his slider, Baker says that he is feeling good about his progress:

"I've been fortunate. [My elbow] feels good. I've got all this newfound range of motion. We'll see what I can do with it."

The “newfound range of motion” is the key to getting back the Scott Baker who is capable of fronting a rotation.  

While it might not be the popular opinion among fans, when healthy and able to hit his spots, I believe Baker has elite-caliber stuff. Though it has not much of a spectacle to behold by radar gun standards, his fastball has been a successful pitch for him in the past. According to Fangraphs.com, in 2009 it was the third-highest valued fastball in the American League, topped only by Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Likewise, from 2007 to 2008, Baker possessed one of the best slider’s in baseball. If he can bounce back from the offseason surgery quickly, enabling him to return to his familiar mechanics, Baker is a prime candidate to be a number two pitcher in the Twins rotation.

Twins spreading misleading information?

With a winter filled with discontent over the dimensions of their new ballpark from the hitters in their lineup, the Twins front office appears to be in full PR mode in curtailing the public’s beliefs that attending a game will not mean you will automatically be denied a souvenir home run ball.  

Two weeks ago, during the Twins’ Winter Caravan stop in Mason City, Iowa, pitcher Glen Perkins addressed the crowd on his thoughts about Target Field. Said the left-hander:

“I would say it’s leaning toward a pitcher’s park, but you never know. Yankee Stadium the first year was a hitter’s park and then it swung the other way last year.”

Yesterday, during his lunchtime live chat at StarTribune.com beat writer Joe Christensen also alluded to this phenomenon in response to an inquisition regarding the team’s chances of hitting more home runs in 2011 at Target Field:

 “I have my doubts, but the Twins believe it's important to give it another year before going overboard with any changes. They correctly point to Yankee Stadium, which wasn't as much of a hitter's park in 2010 as it was in 2009.”

Christensen’s use of the word “they” suggests that members of the front office are the ones circulating that tidbit. After all, Perkins spent very little time at the major league level in 2010 and did not pitch a single inning in New York. He couldn’t have been privy to this first-hand. With all of the criticism emerging from the clubhouse, including calls for the walls to be moved in (ostensibly, an expensive task), the organization had to communicate something to the team. Regardless of the source or background, the fact is that the statement is almost patently false.

Superficially, there was some decline in the numbers at home in New York. For instance, in 2010 hitters posted an OPS of 783 at the new Yankee Stadium, the second-highest in baseball and the highest in the American League, but experienced a ten-point drop in OPS from the previous year (793) when it was regarded as an offensive Mecca. Yet, ten points is hardly a resounding affirmation of a transition from a hitter-friendly park to a pitcher-friendly one.   

Similarly, while the ballpark paced the majors in home runs hit in ’09 with 237, when the season ended this past year 14 fewer home runs had been hit. Still, that 223 in 2010 was the second-highest total in baseball.

Based on those two facts alone, I’d hardly be inclined to calling Yankee Stadium anything but a hitter’s paradise. What’s more is that according to ESPN.com’s Park Factors, despite the decrease in total bombs launched in its confines all things considered, Yankee Stadium actually became a place that was easier to hit home runs over the previous season. In 2009, the Bronx ballpark posted a HR Park Factor of 1.201, the highest in baseball. Although it lost the long ball title to USCellular Field and surpassed by Coors Field in Denver, the Yankees’ home field had a HR Park Factor of 1.420.

Likewise, in terms of total offense, Yankee Stadium’s 1.177 Runs Park Factor was far superior in comparison to ‘09’s 0.965 Runs Park Factor it listed after the stadium’s inaugural season. To summarize, it was found to be easier to score runs and hit home runs at Yankee Stadium in 2010 versus its first year.

Simply put, despite the Twins' claims to the contrary, Yankee Stadium did not revert towards a pitcher's park.

In the end, there is no need to repeat a misleading message in hopes of enticing players or fans to think of Target Field somehow emerging as a Yankee Stadium-like venue in 2011. Rather, focus on the number of home runs that aren’t leaving the park courtesy of the visiting team as opposed to the number of home runs you are missing out on. Target Field may not do anyone any favors in the home run department but it served the team extremely well in 2010 and some members of the offense should embrace that concept.

Denard Span says Target Field hurt his numbers too

Denard Span recently told the Pioneer Press’s John Shipley that he plans on rebounding offensively in 2011.

After hitting .305/.390/.422 in his first 1,087 plate appearances with the Twins, the organization decided that they had their center fielder and lead-off hitter for the foreseeable future and handed him a five-year deal worth $16.5 million dollars heading into spring training last year. Unfortunately, Span’s first season with the new financial security was nowhere close to his prior performance. In 705 plate appearances in ’10, he hit a very pedestrian .264/.331/.348 making some wonder if he can repeat that type of production again.  

What did Span feel was the source for his decline? Like many of his other teammates, he too chose to finger Target Field as a major culprit.

In acknowledging his struggles at the plate in 2010, he noted that while he wasn’t affected by the ballpark’s supposed home run-zapping power, but rather the switch from the artificial surface of the Metrodome to the natural grass infield of Target Field shaved plenty of would-be hits off of his numbers:

"It just seemed that hits (up the middle), last year at Target Field I wouldn't get those, and did at the Metrodome," Span said. "It just felt at times like the infielders were catching up to those up the middle. It seemed like the grass would slow it up just a little, and I was out bang-bang at first."

More or less, the numbers confirms Span’s perceptions. After demonstrating success at avoiding outs when putting the ball on the ground prior to 2010, fate’s pendulum swung the other way to see a large amount of those grounders finding leather.

In his first two seasons, with the assistance of the artificial surface of the Metrodome for 81 games, Span significantly outperformed the league’s average, even besting the norm by an astonishing 48 points last year. The move to the natural grass slapped Span’s totals, helping remove 64 points from the previous season to finish well-below the league’s average in 2010:

BABIP on Grounders
Season	Span	League Average
2008	.257	.242
2009	.287	.239
2010	.223	.234

(baseball-reference.com)

To be sure, Span wasn’t the only prevalent Twins hitter to experience this phenomenon. In 2009, Joe Mauer took home the AL batting crown with a .365 batting average thanks in part to a .288 batting average on groundballs. This past season, Mauer lost 38 points on his groundball BABIP (.250) and witnessed his overall average drop to .327.

Of course, it’s hard to completely fault his new home as the source for all of his woes. While Span expresses that the new stadium snagged hits away from him, he still hit a fairly robust .302 at Target Field, just ten points lower than his average at the Dome from 2008 to 2009. Whereas a few more groundballs may have been converted to outs because of the grass infield, as a big line drive hitter to center, Target Field’s ample area up the middle likely provided Span with a few more hits that would have been tracked down at the Dome compensating him for the losses on the ground.

Likewise, the 64 point drop in his groundball BABIP isn’t all due to playing on grass an additional 81 games a year. There is probably a fair share of bad luck mixed in as more of his balls in play were simply directed at gloves rather than openings in the defense. The reality is that the transition away from the Astroturf may repress his numbers to some extent, it is unlikely that it will be as influential of a factor in 2011 as his groundball BABIP reverts back to the league and his career norm. 

The two sides of Nick Punto

When the retrospective history on Nick Punto is completed, the subtitle will read “The man who couldn’t hit but boy could he field”.

Dating back to 2005, when he became steady presence with the Twins or at least a common sight subbing in as a pinch runner or defensive replacement, Punto has swung lethargic lumber. In that time he has hit .248/.323/.325 with the third-lowest OPS (.647) among qualified players. Among the more light-hitting infielders, he also struck out an inordinate amount of the time (18.5%) rendering his fairly impressive speed useless when the ball failed to meet the bat.

Where he was considered useful - at least in some managers’ opinion - was in his ability to lay down a bunt. In his 2,274 plate appearances since 2005, Punto laid down 45 sacrifices, by far the most by a player who did not spend any time in the National League, the more small-ball-oriented of the two leagues. Likewise, the scrapper also managed to reach safely 45 times for bunt hits. This was by far the most by any American League hitter in that time.

None of this nickel-and-dime stuff helped offset the reality that he was providing little-to-no value to the club with a bat in his hand. In fact, by Fangraphs.com’s account, he cost the Twins roughly 70 runs when standing next to the plate:

Names	Batting Runs Above Average (2005-10)
Cesar Izturis	-111.3
Pedro Feliz	-95.3
Adam Everett	-90.1
Jason Kendall	-89.0
Clint Barmes	-79.7
Willy Taveras	-71.8
Yuniesky Betancourt	-70.7
Omar Vizquel	-70.0
Nick Punto	-69.2

(via Fangraphs.com)

Of course, whatever damage Punto did with his bat, he almost completely compensated for with his extraordinary defensive skills.

At short, a position he played at in 1,881 innings since ’05, his 18.9 UZR/150 was the best in baseball, topping other glove lovers like Adam Everett, Omar Vizquel and JJ Hardy. One position to his right at third, Punto once again was considered the most elite defender there by the Ultimate Zone Rating standards. His 20.0 UZR/150 in 2,098 innings led baseball and surpassed notables such as Evan Longoria, Joe Crede and Ryan Zimmerman.

In fact, since 2005 when he first started making regular appearances in Ron Gardenhire’s lineups, Punto has been 62.6 runs above average in the field according to Fangraphs.com:

Names	Fielding Runs Above Average (2005-10)
Chase Utley	78.6
Carl Crawford	72.3
Franklin Gutierrez	69.7
Pedro Feliz	67.0
Andruw Jones	66.5
Ichiro Suzuki	62.8
Nick Punto	62.6

(via Fangraphs.com)

In those five seasons, Punto was paid approximately $12.9 million but provided nearly 9.4 wins above replacement (WAR). By comparison, the Twins paid the underrated Michael Cuddyer $27.1 million in that same period but received less than one more win over replacement from him (10.3). Clearly, the Twins were able to make their often demurred investment in Punto worth their while.

Now 33 years old in 2011, it will be interesting to see if the Cardinals will be able to extract the same amount of value from his defense and his baserunning prowess that the Twins were able to while Punto was in his mid-to-late 20s. Still, for the small $750,000 chunk of change, St. Louis will receive a versatile, above-average fielder. 

What to do with the starting pitching surplus

At the beginning of December, reports emerged that the Yankees had come calling to gauge the Twins interest in trading Francisco Liriano. According to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the organization’s response was, to paraphrase, “Ah, no.”

For obvious reasons, Francisco Liriano will be a fixture in the Twins rotation. While some might misguidedly question his ace status, Liriano remains, bar none, the best pitcher on the staff. It’s hard to argue that the top five finisher of all pitchers in the categories of strikeouts per nine innings (9.44, fifth-best), home runs allowed per nine innings (0.42, fourth-lowest) and the fielding-independent pitching metric (2.66, third-best) is somehow not the best on his own team’s rotation. With an infusion of luck and defense in 2011 to accessorize his domination, Liriano could easily be a contender for next year’s Cy Young Award.

Meanwhile, Sherman continued by saying:

“The Twins would, however, consider trading strike-thrower Kevin Slowey, especially if they are able to re-sign free agent Carl Pavano.”

Fast-forward a month later and suddenly the Twins have been able to re-sign Pavano, giving them six starting pitchers and only five rotational spots. Even Bert Blyleven’s California math would be able tell him that there are one too many starting pitchers - either someone has to move to the bullpen or someone will be shopped.

While it is very plausible that the team may choose to reassign one of their starters to the relief staff, it is just as likely that they may look to improve other areas of the roster by trading from their surplus, and the suddenly expendable Slowey could be on the move.

Slowey has built a strong pedigree in the minor leagues – succeeding with precision and guile despite college-level velocity - and has performed adequately in Minnesota. This unparalleled control has been one of the best in the game. Since 2008, Slowey’s 4.62 strikeouts-to-walks ratio has been the fourth-best behind only Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and the retired Mike Mussina. Nevertheless, after taking a Juan Uribe liner off of his wrist in 2008 which sidelined him for a couple weeks, the pain persisted in 2009 and eventually led to surgery. The outcome was the installation of two permanent screws in his throwing wrist.

This past spring, Slowey told reporters in Florida that his wrist had an entirely new sensation and that he wasn’t sure if he would ever feel the same again. By May, Slowey clearly appeared to be a different pitcher as all his pitches lacked the movement he demonstrated in the past. In his first eight starts, Slowey failed to complete six innings in all of his starts except for one, drawing criticism from his manager that he was trying to be too fine and nibbled around the plate instead of attacking the strike zone.

Even though he continued to rack up wins through July, thanks to his offense which eventually scored him 6.24 runs per nine innings in 2010, which masked his overall shoddy performance, Slowey continued to have troubles getting movement on his pitches.

Had the surgery been a simple clean-up of bone chips, I’d likely to chalk the decreased movement up to Slowey attempting to regain his feel for his pitches after the hiatus beginning in 2009. However, with two permanent screws it definitely raises the possibility of influencing the structural integrity of his wrist mechanics, impeding him from gaining the same action he had on his pitches before the surgery.

Perhaps the Twins viewed it as the same way. At July’s trade deadline, Slowey’s name was often cited as a potential candidate to be on the move. According to some reports, the right-hander was being offered to the Mariners as part of a potential Cliff Lee trade.

Obviously, the Cliff Lee trade never materialized, but Seattle’s interest in Slowey is very understandable. As a team with rangy, fly-catching outfielders, combined with a particularly pitcher-friendly ballpark in Safeco, Slowey’s fly ball tendencies would thrive in the Northwest. So it is entirely possible that Seattle could rekindle their interest in the relatively young and inexpensive starter.

Likewise, as Howard Sinker suggested yesterday, the Yankees may also be a potential suitor for Kevin Slowey. Per Sinker’s proposal, the Twins would send Slowey to New York and would receive the talented yet disenfranchised pitcher in Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain, who has a lively arm that hits 95-mph and a very good slider that has kept right-handed opponents off-balance, has had numerous issues with his development and appears to have fallen out of favor with the Yankees. In addition to gaining a solid bullpen arm, the Twins would also save approximately $1 million in the process.

While in theory the Yankees are in desperate need of some rotation help to follow CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes, Slowey doesn’t appear to be a great fit in New York. As a right-hander hurler with high contact and ridiculously high fly ball tendencies that short right field porch would be tested regularly against the AL East’s squadron of hard-hitting left-handed sluggers. Then again, Hughes had one of the highest fly ball tendencies in the AL but like Slowey, he too was also saved by his offense that obliterated opponents and led the league in run support, resulting in the emptiest 18-win season in a long time.

To be sure, the Twins would probably benefit more by holding on to all of their six starting pitcher through the first few months of the season, preserving an insurance policy in the event of an injury. Also, by moving to the ‘pen, the Twins can limit Slowey to see opposing batters just one time through the order, a historical strong suit for him as hitters have shown the propensity to hit him harder in their subsequent match-ups. At the same time, don’t be surprised if the front office flips Slowey in efforts to improve the roster and save a few dollars in the process.