Nathan returning to form in '11? Don't count on it.

One of the cogs to the 2011 bullpen, Joe Nathan, recently told John Shipley of the Pioneer Press that he plans to come to camp in the spring healthy and ready to compete for his old job.  

Said Nathan:

"I plan on being healthy enough to not miss a beat in spring training. I'm sure the coaches will be cautious at first, but I hope to prove early in spring that I don't need to be babied or coddled in any way, and that I can go out and play baseball as normal."

The Twins closer-in-exile is scheduled to make a non-refundable $12 million next season - a substantial amount of dough - so the organization is understandably anxious that Nathan fulfills his promise of returning at full strength. At the same time, there has to be cautious concern and on-going contingency planning to be prepared if the closer’s arm is not ready.

There is a lesson to be learned from the two most recent Tommy John post-ops, Francisco Liriano and Pat Neshek, and their first seasons back on the mound. Upon their return, neither Liriano nor Neshek (in his limited sample size) were very effective. In fact, most of their vital signs suggested that they were nowhere close to the pitchers they were prior to the procedure:

	Francisco Liriano	Pat Neshek
Velocity Before TJ (mph)	94.7	89.0
Contact Rate Before TJ	76.0%	73.1%
Velocity After TJ (mph)	90.6	85.6
Contact Rate After TJ	87.6%	81.9%

(via Fangraphs.com)

In addition to both losing roughly four miles per hour on their fastballs, Liriano and Neshek struggled with their control as well in their initial seasons back. Because Liriano was able to mix in a still viable slider, he managed to escape his that year with a 6-4 record along with a 3.91 ERA. However, his control was less than sharp as he had troubles getting ahead of hitters (48.9% first-pitch strike versus 60.5% first-pitch strike prior to Tommy John) as well as getting opponents to miss (10.8% swinging strike versus 16.4% prior to Tommy John). With another hiccup in 2009, it took until this past season before Liriano regain the form he had before the surgery.

Neshek, too, returned with a decreased velocity as well. Like Liriano, in his limited exposure at the major league level in 2010, Neshek also had troubles getting ahead of hitters (44.2% first-pitch strike compared to 66.1% in 2008). Because of his radar readings, the Twins sent him back to Rochester in hopes that he would be able to strengthen his arm more. He has yet to prove that he can come full-circle after the surgery.

According to Will Carroll’s Saving The Pitching: A Revolutionary Analysis Of Pitching Injuries And How To Prevent Them, the standard amount of time for recovery of Tommy John surgery is 22-to-24 months. Following that timeline, Liriano would not have been fully healed until November 2008. Instead, he was throwing again in the Twins uniform on April 13^th, 2008, a mere 17 months after his date with the knife. Likewise, Neshek was submarining again for the team 17 months after his surgery as well.

Of course, given the right individual and training program, one can hasten the recovery process. For the Braves’ closer Billy Wagner and starter Tim Hudson, 17 months was more than enough time to get game ready. The two Atlanta pitchers should be role models for Nathan as they were able to return to work 11 months (Hudson in 13 months) after having their elbow rebuilt. As such, Nathan was quoted as talking to both Wagner and Hudson regarding their trials and tribulations through the Tommy John recovery process.

Unlike Liriano and Neshek, neither pitcher lost much in terms of their stuff:

	Billy Wagner	Tim Hudson
Velocity Before TJ (mph)	94.5	90.3
Contact Rate Before TJ	78.3%	79.4%
Velocity After TJ (mph)	94.2	90.3
Contact Rate After TJ	69.6%	80.5%

(via Fangraphs.com)

Wagner only got in 15.2 innings in his first season back but was far better than before the operation, inciting less contact afterwards. Hudson also had an enviable season as well, actually getting ahead of his opponents much better (66.1% versus 60.4%) after the surgery in his reps.

Nathan’s motivation to converse with the two TJ survivors goes beyond seeking inspirational slogans as April 2011 will also be Nathan’s 11-month anniversary of his surgery date. Given the previous track record of his teammates, is this really a feasible goal for the Twins’ all-time saves leader?

According to one article detailing Wagner’s swift return:

“[M]ultiple major-league sources suggest that medical risks persist for a pitcher until he is at least 14 months removed from such a procedure. There are still risks of setbacks, and it would be vastly premature to suggest that the pitcher is out of the woods.”

It would be a fairly accurate assumption that Nathan is working through the same programs with the team’s trainers as Liriano and Neshek did before him. While plenty of the turnaround has to be assigned to the drive and motivation of the individual, there is a share of responsibility that goes to the training staff as well. As Carroll’s book says, the real work begins during the rehab protocol and the Twins have little evidence of returning a Tommy John survivor back into the wild. Judging from the outcome of Liriano and Neshek, the probability of Nathan returning to his 2009 self in 2011 appear very premature.  

The Goose Gossage Award ballot (Best AL Reliever)

Tasked with the responsibility of determining one of the two votes from the Minnesota delegation for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance for the Goose Gossage Award (best reliever), I must admit I figured my vote would probably come out of the Tampa Bay bullpen, I just didn’t expect that it would have been the one I selected.



As a unit, the Rays relief staff was the best in the American League. They finished the season with had most saves (51), the fewest runs (180), the fewest hits (383), the fewest walks (tied with the Twins with 150 but probably would have finished better had their manager not decided to intentionally walk five more hitters) and, ultimately, cost their team as a whole only 16 games in the loss column.
 On the surface, closer Rafael Soriano could have easily have been the right choice. After all, his 45 saves in 48 chances led the league. For those that value that kind of termination, that’s outstanding. Flavoring that, Soriano’s WPA was the second-highest among relievers in baseball at 4.98, meaning he was directly influential at ensuring his team won games. Additionally, in his 62.1 innings of work, Soriano allowed just 14 runs, struck out 57 and a .190 opponent batting average.


Of course, what most people do not notice is those that help create the environment in order for the closer to succeed. Often times, closers are like Senior Vice Presidents that have been promoted over a middle manager or worker that might assume more of the dirty work with far less of the recognition. Given the right opportunity, the underling might actually be a superior contributor than his direct report. And that appears to be the situation in Tampa when it comes to my vote for the Goose Gossage Award, Joaquin Benoit.


Whereas Soriano received the accolades and saves, Benoit labored to ensure that Soriano would be in-line for his save when the ninth inning came. Coming off a missed season recovering from torn labrum surgery, Benoit was simply phenomenal at a low cost to the Rays. While taking on a similar workload as Soriano (60.1 innings) but was slightly more dominant than his bullpen-mate with more strikeouts (75), fewer runs (10) and a lower opponent batting average (.150). Furthermore, Benoit held baseball’s lowest WHIP (0.68) as well as the lowest on-base percentage (.189).


To be sure, Benoit’s season seems to transcend the factor of luck influenced by the small sample size of relieving. In analyzing his stuff, we find that he was downright lights out. The righty was reaching 94 miles an hour on average on his fastball, producing a heater that was 12.2 runs above average (5th best), and used it to get ahead of opponents then deploying what manager Joe Maddon described as an “elite changeup”. The so-called elite changeup garnered Benoit a dirty-filthy-sick-nasty 8.2 runs above average, best in the game, and was swung-and-missed at on 46% of hitter’s swings (3rd best changeup in that category). His stuff was simply disgusting in 2010.


Here’s my final ballot:


Third: Neftali Feliz


Already our selection for Willie Mays Award (best rookie), Feliz had a tremendous season as a closer in Texas, helping elevate the Rangers deep into the postseason. In addition to his 40 saves in 43 opportunities, Feliz held a 9.2 K/9 as well as a tidy 0.88 WHIP and a .180 opponent average.


Second: Rafael Soriano


Pretty much for all of the reasons listed above. Also, pitching in the AL East can never be emphasized enough.


First: Joaquin Benoit


Given his performance this past season for a team that won an extremely tough division (Yankees and Red Sox hitters were a combined 6-for-44, .136, against the right), Benoit has earned the right to be considered the BBA’s Goose Gossage Award winner.

Did Cuddyer's knee diminish his power?

The Twins announced this week that a handful of players, including Michael Cuddyer, will have some offseason surgery to combat the lingering injuries. Reports Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal:

Twins first baseman Michael Cuddyer said he will need surgery to clean out his right knee, which has been bothering him since the beginning of the season. 

"I need my right knee scoped," Cuddyer said Monday. "I wasn't that affected by it as far as playing."

I am not so certain that last part is true.

Like most hard-nose players who ooze machismo all over the clubhouse, Cuddyer’s quote is an attempt at downplaying the injury and the potential it could have had on his overall game. If the knee was enough of an irritant to incite him to say it was bothering him all season, it probably had some influence over his playing. The announcement that the Twins mainstay would require surgery on his right knee might also help explain some of the diminished power and a damaging trend of hitting more grounders as the season progressed.

When Cuddyer amassed 32 bombs in ‘09, he did so in dramatic tape measure fashion. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, the right fielder averaged 412 feet per shot in true distance while the rest of the American League was averaging 396 feet on their home runs. While some of this distance might be attributed to hitting in the favorable atmospheric bubble of the Metrodome, Cuddyer also jacked 14 of his 32 home runs away from the climate-controlled park, an indication that he had effective power everywhere.

Given not just the total but the magnitude of the distance on his shots, expectations that Cuddyer could match his 2009 contributions seemed like a fair bet.

This year, however, not only did he hit 18 fewer home runs in 25 additional plate appearances between the two seasons, Cuddyer’s distance shrank considerable in those homers as well. His average true distance decreased to 396.4, just slightly better than the rest of the league (395.7). While Target Field’s conditions certainly may have been a factor in his decline in home runs at home as well as his diminished frequent flier mileage, his decrease in home runs on the road -- both in totals and distance -- suggest a more likely correlation with an injury. 

Then there is the case of his groundball totals increasing throughout the season. My initial diagnosis last month was that Cuddyer was rushing through his swing, often fooled by sliders and offspeed pitches and turning over on those by being out in front. While he was still rushing through is swing - more so than last year - with this revelation, it appears that there is a chance the injured knee may have been culprit rather than Cuddyer’s eagerness. With an injured right knee, the one that a right-handed hitter uses to drive off of, there may have been discomfort in his mechanics, which would cause the hitter to prematurely shift his balance off of his back leg sooner to alleviate the discomfort. 

Regardless of his statistical contributions are perceived, knowing that Cuddyer persevered and played through ailments such as his knee, just when the Twins needed him the most, seems to validate some aspect of his team MVP argument. No, he didn’t get many key hits, as his WPA was beyond the pale (-1.52), and he was utterly overmatched defensively at first base, acting as a sieve whenever a short hop was thrown in his direction. Still, Cuddyer was able to maintain some semblance of order by remaining in the lineup instead of having Jose Morales, Brendan Harris or the likes fill in at first. To some manager’s, that might be enough to consider your player a downright superstar.

Because the Twins are already on the hook for his rather overpriced $10.5 million in 2011, the organization needs to hope that the minor procedure of “cleaning up” his knee will help resurrect his power potential.

****

As a reminder, when you are finished here, head over to TwinsCentric.com and purchase your pre-sale copy of the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook 2010-2011. Heading into my Billy Mays mode, if you act now, you can buy the Handbook for $4.95 now instead of the $9.95 full-price that all of the Johnny-Come-Latelys will pay.

TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook 2010-2011

Because the baseball embers continue to burn throughout the dark and cold winter, that’s why we at TwinsCentric have compiled the well-received Offseason GM Handbook. As one front office official told me, the hot stove is when all the action happens. From every possible angle, John Bonnes, Nick Nelson, Seth Stohs and myself have created a comprehensive guide for baseball’s second season. 

Here are some of the topics we will tackle that is facing the organization right now:

(1) What will the Twins do with all of those impending free agents?

Carl Pavano, Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Randy Flores. Which ones SHOULD the Twins attempt to retain and why.  (A1: Not Randy Flores. A2: Because.)

(2) What about those arbitration eligibles, how much will they ask for and what is a fair offer from the front office?

There is a plethora of players in line for raises, including Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young. Certainly, after their 2010 seasons both players are looking for a raise. What should the Twins offer them?

(3) What is the future of the payroll?

No one concerns themselves more over the finances of the club than John Bonnes and he once again provides us with an accurate budget to operate with. Understanding these confines and parameters provides perspective. For example, knowing the current contractual obligations allows us to recognize that signing Cliff Lee is a pipedream.

(4) What do the Twins need?

A right-handed bat might be on the top of the list, where might they find that? There will be a surplus of those types of bats entering free agency, will there a bargain like Jim Thome available who swings from the opposite side of the plate? How about a backup catcher that isn’t an obscene downgrade offensively in the event Joe Mauer misses several games on end? A power pitcher? A two-hitter? A second baseman?

(5) How is the organization looking below the surface?

Seth Stohs knows more about the farm system and he outlines the depth by position in the organization and will predict who will be the next Danny Valencia for the team.

(6) What does the free agent landscape look like?

Last year, there was an abundance of left-handed designated hitters and second basemen. Because of that, the Twins wound up getting Thome and Hudson at a TJ Maxx price. What does the market have an abundance of and can the Twins improve from that?

(7) Do the Twins have tradeable commodities that they should use to acquire other talent?

In 2009, the Twins shipped Carlos Gomez, a talented yet maligned outfielder, to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy in hopes of solidifying the shortstop spot. This trade was able to happen because the team had numerous outfielders. With Delmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, it appears that the Twins might have the opportunity to move one for help in another area.

We address all of these topics and more, offering thousands words on the issues and keys to team building that you crave. The TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook 2010-2011 is now available for pre-sale orders. Those that get in early, will have the opportunity to purchase the eBook at the low $4.95 rate -- half the regular price. Grab one now and get ready to join one of the greatest conversations.

Tough call, even tougher road ahead

If you are a subscriber to the theory of momentum, the Carl Pavano-Lance Berkman encounter in the seventh inning was the most pivotal (and controversial) at bat of the game, shifting control back into the Yankees’ favor.

The Twins had just tied the score at two in the bottom of the previous inning on Orlando Hudson’s solo home run and, following Delmon Young’s triple, Minnesota appeared to have Andy Pettitte reeling. Unable to score Young from third, the Twins set out to keep the Yankees scoreless in the top of the seventh. With no outs and Jorge Posada on first with a lead-off walk, Pavano gave up a double to Berkman, which scored the catcher from first. According toFangraph.com’s Play Log, Berkman’s RBI double supplied the defending champions with their largest amount of WPA (wins probability added)of the night, helping put the Yankees in front for good.

Of course, that double may never have happened had a certain pitch been called a you-know-what.

In the match-up, Pavano positioned himself well, getting two-strikes on Berkman, who had already homered earlier in the evening. While working him away on the first three pitches, Pavano buzzed a fastball inside for what appeared to everybody and their mother to be strike three.

Everybody, that is, except home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt.

From his position at second base, Hudson, who had tied the game in the bottom of the last inning, jumped up and down, demonstrating his dissatisfaction with the call. Joe Mauer held the pitch a split-second longer than usual. Pavano stared towards home, presumably asking what Wendelstedt had seen.

MLB.com’s Pitch F/X system, which tracks pitches with a series of cameras, confirms that the pitch had indeed crossed through the strike zone:

While the majority of viewers probably figured that Wendelstedt took that Pavano pitch to be the opportune time to blast out a tweet (“Awesome seats for #Yankees-#Twins game. Sneaky Petes afterwards! #MLBPlayoffsRox”), Wendelsted’s call was consistent with his other calls.

In the chart below, provided by BrooksBaseball.net, it shows Wendelstedt’s strike zone to left-handed batters through MLB.com’s pitch f/x system. The red marks are his called strikes while the green ones represent balls. Naturally, the strike zone’s height will change depending on the hitter however, the width obviously remains static. In this case, to left-handed hitters, Wendelstedt would expand the zone on the outer region while reducing the zone on the inner portion. While a half dozen calls inside were missed, both team’s pitchers benefitted from this auxiliary strike zone away:

In the end, Yahoo.com’s Jeff Passen counted 31 missed calls by the home plate umpire, but also noting that Pavano was often the recipient of strike calls that were actually out of the zone (like his first strike to Berkman in the offending at bat). Simply put, while the call was blown, you can’t complain about a botched call on one hand while being the beneficiary of some questionable strikes on the other.

Regardless of the umpire’s indiscretions, the Twins will head into Yankee Stadium hoping to survive the weekend and somehow bounce back from two games in the hole. That feat has been accomplished exactly four times since the eight-team playoff format was introduced in 1995. Seattle managed to win three straight against the Yankees in 1995 while the Red Sox knocked Cleveland out in 1999. The A's lost two series after being up by two games, losing to the Yankees in 2001 and the Red Sox in 2003. Unfortunately, unlike the Twins, who have to venture into the city that never sleeps on their road to recovery, three of the four teams made their comebacks when returning home for two games.