Running themselves out of first place?

The Twins have developed a reputation for being a team that hustles all over the base paths, implementing an aggressive approach, and taking an extra 90 feet or more when the opportunity presents itself. More than that, they’ve often been lauded as doing so intelligently. According to an audit of the team’s baserunning on BillJamesOnline.net, the Twins’ results on the bases have radically changed from the prior two seasons.  

In 2009, the Twins scampered around the bases fairly liberally. Through their efforts, the team netted 42 additional bases going first to third, second to home and first to home while avoiding outs. Factoring in the 72% success rate of their stolen bases and the 2009 team gained approximately 63 bases above average. The year prior to that, the Twins netted 49 additional bases through hustle and another 18 by way of theft. This gave the Twins a positive 67 bases. This was good enough for sixth and third in the American League in those consecutive seasons. This season, the Twins have posted a -20 mark, the second-lowest total in the AL and their worst since the disappointing 2005 season.

Minnesota Twins

1st to 3rd   2nd to Home 1st to Home DP Bases BR BR SB Net Year Adv Opp Adv Opp Adv Opp Opp GIDP Taken Outs Gain Gain Gain 2002 72 222 105 186 25 68 1148 121 175 21 +33 -45 -12 2003 81 238 128 208 25 59 1273 139 186 28 +31 +6 +37 2004 63 218 105 172 25 65 1157 130 168 44 -6 +24 +18 2005 59 243 109 195 18 62 1089 154 153 46 -65 +14 -51 2006 87 275 131 218 24 58 1193 163 186 47 -10 +17 +7 2007 89 240 119 198 26 64 1159 148 154 60 -55 +52 -3 2008 82 245 139 233 28 66 1254 144 211 47 +49 +18 +67 2009 94 328 130 208 33 72 1265 146 197 41 +42 +21 +63 2010 48 161 68 113 20 49 625 95 90 26 -32 +12 -20 Totals 675 2170 1034 1731 224 563 10163 1240 1520 360 -13 +119 +106 31% 60% 40% 12%

    (via billjamesonline.net)

What’s more is that this drop in production on the bases could correlate with the depressed scoring totals overall. Consider this, in 2008 and 2009, the Twins plated more than 5 runs per game. This year, the scoring total has dropped to roughly league average at 4.6 runs per game. If you look over the past several years, a pattern emerges:

Twins on the Bases:	Net Gain on Bases	Runs Scored Per Game
2004	+18	4.8
2005	-51	4.3
2006	+7	4.9
2007	-3	4.4
2008	+67	5.1
2009	+63	5.0
2010	-20	4.6

The explanation for such a downturn in the 2010 Twins’ Net Gain involves the higher volume of Twin-killings. While averaging a 12% double play rate from 2002 to 2010, the team is currently posting a 15% rate this season. These two-for-ones have erased numerous runners and muted potential rallies. The simple solution to this problem is to actually get more aggressive, such as starting runners when groundball-prone hitters like Joe Mauer are batting in double play situations.

Likewise, the Twins coaching staff have failed on several occasions to realize the limitations of their players. Jason Kubel leads the team with six outs on the bases, two of which were the results of Kubel getting burned at home plate. 

While aggressiveness on the bases is still very much a part of this year’s team’s DNA, the outs on the bases has adversely affected the scoring. Part of the blame goes towards not altering their approach in double play situations and not understanding their personnel’s limitations (a few of Kubel’s six outs on the bases is due because of poor decisions to send him). Once again, it goes back to being intelligent on the bases. Improving the efficiency by avoiding outs would greatly assist in bolstering the bottom-line. 

Baker needs to keep hitters from teeing up his fastball

Last season, Scott Baker was the owner of one of the American League’s best fastball. According to fangraphs.com, his fastball was 21.9 runs above average, seeding him third in the league behind such pitching nobility like the Cy Young award-winning Zack Greinke (25.8 runs above average) and Justin Verlander (25.1 runs above average). This season, however, is a different story as the Fabulous Baker Boy has seen his fastball obliterated across the summer sky. Instead of soaring with the big guns at the front of the leaderboard, Baker’s fastball is residing toward the bottom of the league at -5.1.

His success with the heater was geared around pinpoint location. Baker exercised an uncanny ability to place his fastball all over the strike zone as well as just outside of it thereby enticing opponents into making contact into less favorable pitches. At the same time, this kind of ownership of the strike zone can invite some unwanted contact. And this season, it appears that teams have figured that out. 

Baker’s Fastball:	OPS against	Chase%	Miss%	Strike%	1st Pitch Strike%
2009:	.742	32%	18%	71%	66%
2010:	.902	26%	20%	72%	65%
Lg. Avg:	.799	19.1%	14.5%	64.1%	59.8%

(via myinsideedge.com) 

There is little evidence of Baker making any changes to his fastball. The velocity is still in the 91-mph range and he delivers it around 62% of his total offerings. Yet, instead of the allowing a manageable .259/.309/.433 batting line like he did in ’09, teams have hit .317/.364/.538 off of his number one pitch this year.   

 

For some reason, the wheels fall off altogether for Baker after his 50^thpitch of the night. Prior to that number, Baker has held opponents to a .246/.272/.357 batting line while allowing four home runs with a decent 5.6 K/BB ratio. Anything after pitch number 50 and Baker might as well be chucking pure gasoline out there. The opposition has tagged him for 11 home runs as well as a .331/.366/.631 line and a slightly depressed 3.45 K/BB. Perhaps Baker’s pitch pattern is too recognizable by the third time through the lineup.

 

In order to work past an outstanding Tampa Bay Ray lineup – one that contains some very good fastball hitters, fifth-best in the AL (21.9 wFB) – Baker needs to be more precise with his heat, using the corners and the fringe to his advantage.   

Ain't no rest for the Thome?

Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan today discussed the ramifications of keeping the aging Jim Thome in the lineup regularly.  In Souhan’s piece, he noted that the Twins require Thome’s thump for optimal offense yet at his accelerated age, he needs respite in order to ensure a September presence. According to Souhan (pardon the sheck):

This makes for the Twins' best possible lineup. The catch, Gardenhire says, is that when Thome plays several days in a row -- even at DH, which seems about as physically demanding as miniature golf -- Gardenhire sees signs of wear.

Said Gardenhire:

"We can run Thome out there every day, but he wasn't as good today as he was the last two days. You can see he's a little stiffer in his swing. You're pushing it when you play him three days in a row. If you kill him now, he won't be any good the rest of the way. You have to pick your moments."

To date, Thome has been one of the biggest free agent values in the offseason. In his limited playing time, Thome has hit.241 but has buttressed that with a great on-base presence (.382) and pop (.547 slugging) leading to a .929 OPS – comparable to David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero, who are leading all designated hitters in that category. In the general sense, Thome’s production at DH has been “worth” $4.1 million according to Fangraphs.com and is an outright steal in comparison to his actual $1.5 million contract. With that kind of output, you would want him in the lineup daily. You’d want him there so bad that you might even move your right fielder back to third base, a position he hasn’t played in five years, in order to get his bat to the plate more than once a game. Still, you have to consider the effects it has on him.

Without question, Thome’s bat speed has slowly degenerated over the past four years. While in Chicago, Thome was yanking pitches with authority into - and over - the right field wall. As he progressed into his late 30’s, those power vitals have shrunk considerably:

Thome’s Pull Numbers:	SLG%	ISoP	HR%
2007	.732	.322	40%
2008	.684	.384	44%
2009	.520	.224	22%
2010	.419	.129	0%

(via Fangraphs.com)

At 39 years old, Thome is still a stout slugger capable of powering the ball over a great distance but without the same outstanding pull power that he had as recently as 2007. Although he retains the ability to get on-base and punish fastballs (.301 BA on fastballs), injuries and years have taken an irreparable toll. Allowing him the occasional breather should help him maintain his current pace for the duration of the season.