Running themselves out of first place?

The Twins have developed a reputation for being a team that hustles all over the base paths, implementing an aggressive approach, and taking an extra 90 feet or more when the opportunity presents itself. More than that, they’ve often been lauded as doing so intelligently. According to an audit of the team’s baserunning on BillJamesOnline.net, the Twins’ results on the bases have radically changed from the prior two seasons.  

In 2009, the Twins scampered around the bases fairly liberally. Through their efforts, the team netted 42 additional bases going first to third, second to home and first to home while avoiding outs. Factoring in the 72% success rate of their stolen bases and the 2009 team gained approximately 63 bases above average. The year prior to that, the Twins netted 49 additional bases through hustle and another 18 by way of theft. This gave the Twins a positive 67 bases. This was good enough for sixth and third in the American League in those consecutive seasons. This season, the Twins have posted a -20 mark, the second-lowest total in the AL and their worst since the disappointing 2005 season.

Minnesota Twins

1st to 3rd   2nd to Home 1st to Home DP Bases BR BR SB Net Year Adv Opp Adv Opp Adv Opp Opp GIDP Taken Outs Gain Gain Gain 2002 72 222 105 186 25 68 1148 121 175 21 +33 -45 -12 2003 81 238 128 208 25 59 1273 139 186 28 +31 +6 +37 2004 63 218 105 172 25 65 1157 130 168 44 -6 +24 +18 2005 59 243 109 195 18 62 1089 154 153 46 -65 +14 -51 2006 87 275 131 218 24 58 1193 163 186 47 -10 +17 +7 2007 89 240 119 198 26 64 1159 148 154 60 -55 +52 -3 2008 82 245 139 233 28 66 1254 144 211 47 +49 +18 +67 2009 94 328 130 208 33 72 1265 146 197 41 +42 +21 +63 2010 48 161 68 113 20 49 625 95 90 26 -32 +12 -20 Totals 675 2170 1034 1731 224 563 10163 1240 1520 360 -13 +119 +106 31% 60% 40% 12%

    (via billjamesonline.net)

What’s more is that this drop in production on the bases could correlate with the depressed scoring totals overall. Consider this, in 2008 and 2009, the Twins plated more than 5 runs per game. This year, the scoring total has dropped to roughly league average at 4.6 runs per game. If you look over the past several years, a pattern emerges:

Twins on the Bases:	Net Gain on Bases	Runs Scored Per Game
2004	+18	4.8
2005	-51	4.3
2006	+7	4.9
2007	-3	4.4
2008	+67	5.1
2009	+63	5.0
2010	-20	4.6

The explanation for such a downturn in the 2010 Twins’ Net Gain involves the higher volume of Twin-killings. While averaging a 12% double play rate from 2002 to 2010, the team is currently posting a 15% rate this season. These two-for-ones have erased numerous runners and muted potential rallies. The simple solution to this problem is to actually get more aggressive, such as starting runners when groundball-prone hitters like Joe Mauer are batting in double play situations.

Likewise, the Twins coaching staff have failed on several occasions to realize the limitations of their players. Jason Kubel leads the team with six outs on the bases, two of which were the results of Kubel getting burned at home plate. 

While aggressiveness on the bases is still very much a part of this year’s team’s DNA, the outs on the bases has adversely affected the scoring. Part of the blame goes towards not altering their approach in double play situations and not understanding their personnel’s limitations (a few of Kubel’s six outs on the bases is due because of poor decisions to send him). Once again, it goes back to being intelligent on the bases. Improving the efficiency by avoiding outs would greatly assist in bolstering the bottom-line. 

Baker needs to keep hitters from teeing up his fastball

Last season, Scott Baker was the owner of one of the American League’s best fastball. According to fangraphs.com, his fastball was 21.9 runs above average, seeding him third in the league behind such pitching nobility like the Cy Young award-winning Zack Greinke (25.8 runs above average) and Justin Verlander (25.1 runs above average). This season, however, is a different story as the Fabulous Baker Boy has seen his fastball obliterated across the summer sky. Instead of soaring with the big guns at the front of the leaderboard, Baker’s fastball is residing toward the bottom of the league at -5.1.

His success with the heater was geared around pinpoint location. Baker exercised an uncanny ability to place his fastball all over the strike zone as well as just outside of it thereby enticing opponents into making contact into less favorable pitches. At the same time, this kind of ownership of the strike zone can invite some unwanted contact. And this season, it appears that teams have figured that out. 

Baker’s Fastball:	OPS against	Chase%	Miss%	Strike%	1st Pitch Strike%
2009:	.742	32%	18%	71%	66%
2010:	.902	26%	20%	72%	65%
Lg. Avg:	.799	19.1%	14.5%	64.1%	59.8%

(via myinsideedge.com) 

There is little evidence of Baker making any changes to his fastball. The velocity is still in the 91-mph range and he delivers it around 62% of his total offerings. Yet, instead of the allowing a manageable .259/.309/.433 batting line like he did in ’09, teams have hit .317/.364/.538 off of his number one pitch this year.   

 

For some reason, the wheels fall off altogether for Baker after his 50^thpitch of the night. Prior to that number, Baker has held opponents to a .246/.272/.357 batting line while allowing four home runs with a decent 5.6 K/BB ratio. Anything after pitch number 50 and Baker might as well be chucking pure gasoline out there. The opposition has tagged him for 11 home runs as well as a .331/.366/.631 line and a slightly depressed 3.45 K/BB. Perhaps Baker’s pitch pattern is too recognizable by the third time through the lineup.

 

In order to work past an outstanding Tampa Bay Ray lineup – one that contains some very good fastball hitters, fifth-best in the AL (21.9 wFB) – Baker needs to be more precise with his heat, using the corners and the fringe to his advantage.   

Ain't no rest for the Thome?

Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan today discussed the ramifications of keeping the aging Jim Thome in the lineup regularly.  In Souhan’s piece, he noted that the Twins require Thome’s thump for optimal offense yet at his accelerated age, he needs respite in order to ensure a September presence. According to Souhan (pardon the sheck):

This makes for the Twins' best possible lineup. The catch, Gardenhire says, is that when Thome plays several days in a row -- even at DH, which seems about as physically demanding as miniature golf -- Gardenhire sees signs of wear.

Said Gardenhire:

"We can run Thome out there every day, but he wasn't as good today as he was the last two days. You can see he's a little stiffer in his swing. You're pushing it when you play him three days in a row. If you kill him now, he won't be any good the rest of the way. You have to pick your moments."

To date, Thome has been one of the biggest free agent values in the offseason. In his limited playing time, Thome has hit.241 but has buttressed that with a great on-base presence (.382) and pop (.547 slugging) leading to a .929 OPS – comparable to David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero, who are leading all designated hitters in that category. In the general sense, Thome’s production at DH has been “worth” $4.1 million according to Fangraphs.com and is an outright steal in comparison to his actual $1.5 million contract. With that kind of output, you would want him in the lineup daily. You’d want him there so bad that you might even move your right fielder back to third base, a position he hasn’t played in five years, in order to get his bat to the plate more than once a game. Still, you have to consider the effects it has on him.

Without question, Thome’s bat speed has slowly degenerated over the past four years. While in Chicago, Thome was yanking pitches with authority into - and over - the right field wall. As he progressed into his late 30’s, those power vitals have shrunk considerably:

Thome’s Pull Numbers:	SLG%	ISoP	HR%
2007	.732	.322	40%
2008	.684	.384	44%
2009	.520	.224	22%
2010	.419	.129	0%

(via Fangraphs.com)

At 39 years old, Thome is still a stout slugger capable of powering the ball over a great distance but without the same outstanding pull power that he had as recently as 2007. Although he retains the ability to get on-base and punish fastballs (.301 BA on fastballs), injuries and years have taken an irreparable toll. Allowing him the occasional breather should help him maintain his current pace for the duration of the season. 

Delmon Young and the Inside Pitch

On May 1^st, Delmon Young was staring at a .222/.292/.381 batting line. This was hardly the anticipated results after finishing the final two months of 2009 in which he batted .305/.327/.513 with 9 home runs. Judging from his batted ball numbers, he was looking more like the pre-August 2009 version – one in which his groundballs were chewing up more than 50% of the total pitches put into play. If you were looking for signs of progress, Young managed to coax 8 walks to his 7 strikeouts, a significant different from the prior year in which he walked just twice and struck out 15 times in the season’s first month.

Since May 1^st, however, Delmon Young is on a 52-for-150 tear (.347) slashing 20 extra base hits including 6 home runs and 14 doubles. Additionally, he tied his base-on-ball total from a year ago on May 22^nd and broke it the following afternoon, demonstrating that patience can be a virtue.

Clearly, just based upon the manner in which he is launching the ball, Young has regained the ability to drive the ball, swatting more line drives around the ball field:

2010	Line Drive%
April	12.5%
May	15%
June	25%

With this squared-up contact, Young marched his offensive numbers northward and to the point where he is the team’s third-best contributor, with an argument for the second-best, while batting seventh regularly. Regarding his current hot streak, Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan relayed some Ron Gardenhire insight:

"He's [Young] learned to click on the ball better now, and jerk the crap out of it, and look for pitches in situations, so I think it's just the maturity process of more at-bats and figuring out what you can do and can't do."

Yes, he’s clearly “jerking the crap out of it” this year:

%/SLG	Pull	Middle	Opposite
2008	29%	35%	35%
	.576	.431	.497
2009	39%	39%	22%
	.576	.632	.279
2010	36%	36%	28%
	.838	.508	.345

While he’s showing no greater tendency to pull the ball this year than his 2009 campaign, he’s definitely hitting it with greater vigor, as the 260-plus point uptick in his slugging percentage would suggest. This is a product of handling inside pitches better this year. Using MyInsideEdge.com data, we see that Young’s well-hit average on pitches inside has risen steadily since 2008:

	WHA (Sw. In)
2008	.084
2009	.099
2010	.139
League Average	.078

Souhan asked if the manager thought it was something mechanical that kept Young from turning on the inside pitch, to which Gardenhire responded:

"I think it was his approach. You have to make adjustments in your approach sometimes. There were a few mechanical things he's had to work on. He'll tell you, 'No,' but we all know different."

Anyone who has been privy to any amount of Twins games in the past three seasons could tell you that Young has made some adaptation to his mechanics. I highlighted just a small portion of them in December. My findings showed that Young’s ability to pull the ball with venom correlated with his mechanical changes:

From the first of that month to the conclusion of the season, Young was a different hitter in the batter’s box. No, the plate discipline did not improve - he still couldn’t buy a walk in Chinatown – but suddenly the ball left his bat with a bit more zest. It no longer trickled off of the lumber towards third base all yippy-skippy.  It charged off the grain on a mission. He slugged over .700 when pulling the ball after hitting a ho-hum .444 on pitches he yanked prior to that.

Most likely, it is a result of both mechanical adjustments and a refined approach at the plate that has allowed Young to turn on pitches with such force. Either way, this development, beginning back in ’09, has given indications that the 24-year-old Young is on-track to reaching the vaunted projections bestowed upon him when the Twins acquired him in 2007. 

Pavano meeting expectations

As Carl Pavano breezed through what had become a very potent Phillie lineup in the two previous games, while tossing his second complete game of the year, he reduced his earned run average to 3.65 - a substantial improvement over his 5.10 ERA from a year ago.
Of course, this production shouldn’t have been unanticipated. Back in January when Pavano accepted the team’s offer of arbitration, I wrote:

To this day, a vast majority of the baseball world places an ungodly amount of emphasis on numbers like the ERA. Yes, it demonstrates that, superficially, Pavano’s season was sub-par however it does not indicate how he actually pitched. His left-on-base rate (66 percent) was well-below league average while his average on batted balls in play (.335) was much higher than the norm. He maintained a very good strikeout rate (6.6 K/9) and did not allow many walks (1.8 BB/9). If he posts similar peripherals next season, his LOB rate and BABIP numbers are almost certain to regress towards the mean. In short, his ERA should end up substantially lower in 2010.

Up to this point in the season, everything stated has more or less come to fruition. His strikeouts are down slightly (5.5 K/9) but he has compensated for that by walking fewer batters (1.4 BB/9), but for all intents and purposes, his peripheral numbers this season are essentially identical to his 2009 marks. Additionally, his previously below average left-on-base rate in ’09 has retreated back toward the average (71.9%) while his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) have dropped considerable too (.288). The results have been a 3.65 ERA through 14 starts – trailing only Francisco Liriano in the pitching staff.

The retention of his peripheral numbers is not surprising. While he’s not necessarily a strikeout pitcher, Pavano’s got enough dirt in his repertoire to get hitters to miss or freeze them cold. After leading baseball with 31.6% out-of-zone swings, Pavano is once again pacing the field, getting swings on 36.4% of his out-of-zone pitches. His changeup has been particularly lethal in getting hitters to pursue as opponents have strayed after the pitch frequently, 41% of the time, leading to a high amount of groundballs in play. To put that chase rate into perspective, Francisco Liriano’s slider incites a hitter to chase after it 48% of the time it is thrown out of the zone. This has equated to the sixth-best changeup in American League (6.4 wCH).

Furthermore, Pavano throws strikes, plain and simple. As it stands, Pavano trails only Seattle’s Cliff Lee and teammate Scott Baker in the highest percentage of first pitch strikes. What’s more is that while the rest of the league’s pitchers are able to get a strike with one of their first two pitches in a plate appearance 85% of the match-ups, Pavano has done so in 90% of his. Working ahead allows him to throw his changeups and other breaking pitches regularly where he succeeds at getting hitters to make contact with out-of-zone pitches.

His batting average on balls in play has been trimmed thanks to the offseason strengthening of the infield defense combined with more At ‘Em balls. Pavano’s groundball rate has remained consistent the past two seasons, hovering slightly above the league average. After turning in a .261 BABIP on groundballs in ’09, Pavano maintains a much lighter one at .200 this season. Part of the reason for the decline in this area is personnel related. Last year while splitting the season in Cleveland and Minnesota, the Indians and Twins had some extremely weak middle infield defense. The decision to sign Orlando Hudson and trade for J.J. Hardy while playing the defense-first Nick Punto at third has helped Pavano, as well as the rest of the pitching staff, dramatically. Now the Twins boast baseball’s best marks at short, sixth-best at second and fifth-best at third:

Twins’ UZR/150	Short	Second	Third	Twins BABIP on GB
2009	-1.3	-6.1	5.9	.259
2010	16.6	15.3	15.5	.229

(via Fangraphs.com)

Lastly, and possibly his biggest area of improvement, has been the correction of his splits against right-handed opponents. In ’09, right-handed opposition hit .317/.345/.504 off of him. So far through his 14 starts, Pavano has limited the same pool of hitters to a .238/.267/.384 batting line.

It goes without saying that there is still plenty of baseball left and approximately 16 or so starts for things to rattle off the tracks for the big mustachioed righty, however, Pavano has been invaluable to this point in the season, providing 10 quality starts in 14 outings. From this vantage point, the $7 million dollar investment in the starting pitcher has been wildly successful for the Twins.