Shifting Mauer up would strengthen Twins lineup

Prior to Orlando Hudson’s injury on May 30^th, the Twins were experiencing one of their best seasons from their two-hitter in over a decade. As a catalyst for the offensive, Hudson was rocking a fatty .377 on-base percentage while scoring a team-leading 39 runs and driving in 16 more. Because of this output and consistent ability to reach base, the Twins averaged nearly five runs per game.

Since being relegated to watching his teammates from the bench the past ten games, the lineup has been a void of emptiness at the two-spot. First shortstop J.J. Hardy was moved into the vacancy followed by a dose of Matt Tolbert after Hardy excused himself with a wrist injury of his own. In 40 plate appearances, the duo combined to go 4-for-36 (.111), scored three runs (all by Tolbert) and have made an out in 85% of the time.  The Twins scoring decreased to almost four runs per game in that duration.

Up to this point Hudson has been the textbook two-hitter – getting on base, adding some speed while occasionally tapping into his power supply (.421 slugging, 15 extra base hits). Needless to say, with this readily available, it did not take much forethought when filling out a lineup card. Now the two-spot has slowed the offense down and begs the question: why is the two-spot so important and how do we fix it?

Back in March, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggert wrote a piece highlighting the shift in what managers around baseball desired in a number two hitter: Power and speed. Writes McTaggert:

For years, the kind of player that managers wanted to put in the No. 2 spot in a batting order was someone who could hit behind runners, drop down a bunt and set the table for the big bats in the lineup. They didn't get much of the glory, but they were as vital to the offense as the streak-of-lightning leadoff hitter or barrel-chested sluggers.

This was the accepted baseball wisdom, one in which legendary manager Earl Weaver detailed in his 1988 book,Weaver on Strategy. At that time, the long-time Baltimoreskipper proclaimed that his ideal two-hitter “is a good bunter. The thinking is that the number-two hitter will bunt or hit-and-run the leadoff man into scoring position.” Essentially, a hitter with a high contact rate and bat control, reaching base safely was not necessarily a prerequisite.  

Several years prior to Weaver’s book, researcher Bill James, now a member of the Boston Red Sox front office, found this practice to be detrimental to overall offensive production. He urged managers to find a hitter that can avoid outs to fill the space between leadoff and the middle of the order. Of course, with baseball, theories are rarely put into practice overnight. Nevertheless, over time both research and results showed that getting more from your number-two spot is vital for offensive production:

[T]he game has changed, and the role of the No. 2 hitter morphed as well in recent years. Instead of slap hitters who put down bunts and work counts, many teams are opting to have a hitter capable of hitting 20-plus homers batting in the second spot in the order. Brawn over finesse, though having a combination of the two is even better.

Now this philosophy is more readily accepted. For instance, the new Cleveland Indians manager, Manny Acta, is one of several field generals that understand the logic behind this. Said Acta back in March:

"It has changed. You don't need a guy who can just bunt and move the guy over. You need to get him on base a lot because you have the No. 3 and 4 hitters coming up behind him. It's a very key part of the lineup."

To practice what he preached, Acta began this season with center fielder Grady Sizemore, who held a career .367 on-base percentage going into the season, as his two-hitter. Sizemore’s lack of productivity and eventual need for season-ending surgery created another opening. Not to be easily deterred, Acta moved outfielder Shin Soo Choo, possibly the hottest hitter in baseball the month of April and had previously been batting third, into the two-spot. The Indians lineup went from scoring 3.8 runs per game to scoring 4.6 since May 21^st.

Likewise, Joe Maddon, manager of the high-octane Tampa Bay Rays lineup, also concurs with this sentiment:

"I don't think it's as it used to be, when the No. 2 guy was primarily a bunt guy or a hit-and-run guy. For me, a No. 2 hitter has to be kind of a complete hitter ... a combination of speed and the ability to drive in a run."

Unsurprisingly, when you are blessed with a player like Carl Crawford who has a blend of both power and speed like Maddon is, it is easy to look like a genius at constructing lineups. What’s more is that even the players in the lineup grasp the common sense behind having a high on-base guy man the two-spot. Houston Astros first base Lance Berkman understands the importance of the skill set of the hitter in front of him:

"You need a guy that can give you a tough at-bat, even against a great pitcher. I don't think your No. 2 guy has to hit with a lot of power, but I do think he has to have a knack for coming up with big hits because I do think you're going to be in a big situation a lot. The most important thing for me is that a No. 2 hitter makes as few outs as possible, which translates into a high on-base percentage."

This brings us back to the Twins current situation. WithoutHudson, the lineup lacks the fluidity it did when he was healthy. Without a decent substitute, the two-spot has become a blighted area of the lineup. With the above reasoning, it would make complete sense to move Joe Mauer up one slot in the lineup. His ability to make contact, drive the ball to the gaps and get on base in nearly 40% of his plate appearances would provide the meat of the order ample opportunity to drive in runs  in Hudson’s hopefully temporary absence.

This isn’t new territory for the well-paid catcher either. In late May 2009, the Twins faced similar circumstances which forced Gardenhire to move Mauer into the two-spot. From May 21st until June 20th, Mauer batted second and hit a robust .415 as the team averaged 5 runs per game in that duration. It was this surge of production that kept the Twins from having the American League’s worst productivity from the two-spot last year.

Gardenhire’s hesitation to move Mauer forward isn’t without its merits. The first of which is that the top of the order becomes left-handed heavily with Span, Mauer and Morneau in the first through third positions in the order. This however is easily dismissed when you consider the splits the trio has when facing left-handed pitching. The second, and perhaps more relevant issue to the manager, is that it leaves the bottom of the order clogged with a variation of Tolbert, Punto, Harris, Valencia or Plouffe in the final three spots. When presented with the same situation last year when Alexi Casilla was struggling, the Twins manager said:

“[Y]ou can stick everyone who's swinging bad at the bottom, but that doesn't stretch out your lineup.”

Clearly this opinion is shared by several other managers in the league who wish to avoid bogging down the lineup at the backend with too many out-makers. According to McTaggert’s article, Astros manager Brad Mills expressed concerns over thinning his lineup as well:

"It would be great to have a No. 2 hitter to be able to drive the ball, but you don't want to sacrifice the rest of your lineup. You want to be able to spread those hitters out to give yourself a chance to drive in some runs."

Yet the problem with that line of thinking is that, in the end, you are giving more at bats to an inferior hitter as the two-hitter will receive more plate appearances per game than the eight or nine hitters. So with the probability of Hudsonreturning to the Twins as early as Tuesday to face the Rockies, adjusting the lineup to include Mauer batting second is a temporary - but necessary - solution to a short-term problem.

Running rampant on Joe? Um, no.

An interesting debate has been generated thanks to the abundant amount of bases swindled from the Twins during their recent west coast road trip. In their visit to Safeco Field, the Seattle Mariners ran rampant on the battery, taking 8 bases in as many attempts, essentially stealing all of their runs in the four-game series.

The aftermath chatter focused on Joe Mauer and the possibility that his arm is not quite what it once was. This is quite the swing in the general perception of his stolen base thwarting abilities. According to the Fan’s Scouting Report, Mauer had some of the best attributes of a catcher the two previous seasons. In 2008, he ranked second in release/footwork and accuracy and third in strength. This past season, Mauer was second in release/footwork as well as strength but was third in accuracy. How can it be that someone who had been deemed the second best defensive catcher in baseball suddenly earns a reputation of being easier to steal from than your average baby?

Not surprising, the pitcher on the mound for over half of the stolen bases was Carl Pavano, whose 30 stolen bases allowed in 2009 led the American League. John Bonnes detailed the totals this year noting that of the 17 attempts on Pavano all but two took the base. His 15 stolen bases allowed are currently the third most behind Fausto Carmona of the Indians and Gil Meche of the Royals. As solid of a pitcher that he has been for the Twins, his Achilles’ heel is obviously holding runners. So while Mauer’s caught stealing rate resides at 28% this season, well-below his 37% career mark, this particular member of the pitching staff is doing him little favors.

Part of the reason for this trend is in Pavano's prolonged delivery from the stretch position. With runners on first, Pavano usually opts to use a full leg kick as shown below:

 

In this image against the Texas Rangers, Pavano had Josh Hamilton on first, who is not necessarily a known base stealer. Still, from the point of his rather deliberate leg-lift to the release of the ball, Pavano uses 29 frames. What really gives the runner a potentially solid jump is that once Pavano’s leg reaches the apex of his delivery, instead of shifting his weight forward he brings the leg down before striding towards home.  This is an added split-second for a better jump.

Compare that to Nick Blackburn who basically lifts his foot and steps forward in a quasi-slide step, eliminating time from first movement to pitch release. As such, from leg-lift to the release of the ball, Blackburn uses 25 frames:

Likewise, Scott Baker also implements a shortened delivery with runners on first. Similar to Blackburn, Baker simply strides forward once he lifts his front leg. From start to finish, Baker takes 26 frames to deliver the ball towards home.

Another factor that makes Pavano such an easy target is that his pitch selection with a runner on first is very fastball-deficient compared to the likes of Blackburn and Baker. Because of both a decrease in velocity and the abundance of tougher pitches to catch-and-throw (sliders, splitters), Pavano makes an ideal target to run on:

2008 w/ runner on 1st:	Fastball%	Non-Fastball%	Avg. Velocity
Pavano	58.3	41.7	86.2
Blackburn	75.0	25.0	87.4
Baker	71.8	28.2	87.5

(via Inside Edge)

Even though Pavano can turn a walk into a double, he’s still demonstrated that he has had better results with his methods versus Blackburn and Baker’s truncated deliveries. With a runner on first with a stolen base opportunity last year, Pavano’s OPS against was .830 while Blackburn was at .930 and Baker at .937.  For Pavano, the ends somewhat justify his means.

So, while we’re quick to blame the catcher for the stolen bases, a vast majority of the burden resides on the other side of the plate. In the end, the decrease in the percentage of runners caught by Joe Mauer is greatly influenced by Pavano’s indifference towards would-be stealers and his presence in the rotation. 

Another arm to the stockpile

With the 21^st overall pick on Monday night, the Minnesota Twins selected right-handed pitcher, Alex Wimmers, from Ohio State University to add to their already extensive arsenal of strike-throwers throughout the minor league system.

Going into the 2010 season, a National League area scout told Baseball America that:

"He's generally an average fastball guy. He'll touch 92. If he touched 93, it wouldn't surprise me, but he'll pitch average with some life on the fastball and really commands his fastball. For me, the separator for him is a plus curveball and plus changeup, right now, present—and not just one out of every five. And he can throw all three of them for strikes. He's got the potential to have three major league out pitches. He can get you out with the fastball, it's good enough with the sink on it and he can get righthanders out with his curveball and lefthanders out with his changeup."

Although he has a plus-curve that can generate plenty of missed bats, the Twins seem enamored by his change-up. According to Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com, VP of Player Personal Mike Radcliff said that:

"It's more the action, the strike-ability with it, his confidence in it, and in the end the usability of it that make the pitch effective. This guy can already use the pitch in his mix. In fact, he closes hitters out with it now, presently. We think it could very well be a top-of-the-scale change.”

With three plus-pitches and a two-time Big 10 pitcher of the year trophy in his collection, how did Wimmers fall past 20 other clubs? Projected to potentially be a higher pick during the winter, like Kyle Gibson a year prior, Wimmers’s stock fell some as the draft approached following a non-arm related injury (hamstring), not so much because of risk involved but as MLB.com’s Jonathon Mayo speculated, that he missed the opportunity to showcase his stuff on at least three occasions in front of scouts. Following the Twins selection, Baseball America’s John Manuel seconded the notion that there is no cause for injury concern related to the hamstring.

Outside of his injury, in the past Wimmers had demonstrated that he can be a tedious nibbler, walking 55 batters in 104.2 innings in ’09, which was the second-highest in the Big Ten that year. This past season, the junior hurler made solid strides in the command department, shaving his walk rate down from the gaudy 4.7 to a more manageable 2.8 as he allowed just 23 free passes in his 73 innings of work.

As a 20-year-old with Team USA in 2009, Wimmers seemed to have a good mechanical foundation (good balance point, arm break and hip rotation) but appeared to be slightly rushed in his delivery. In this particular clip, the timing of his lower-half and his upper-half seem a split-second off while his landing point is a bit unbalanced:

(video courtesy of MLBAM)

 

Comparing that to his April 9^th outing of this year, we see a more fluid Wimmers. His landing point is much more controlled but he still manages to maintain that excellent leverage off of his front leg while exercising a great hip rotation with his backside during his release:

(video courtesy of ProspectJunkie.com)

 

The early returns suggest that the Twins have landed themselves a pitcher that is equipped to become a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Naturally, the coaching staff will have some adjustments to make to ensure that Wimmers’s command remains intact and consistent, but it would appear that the Twins have the blueprints to long-term success stashed away in the draft war room. While they may not have the savvy numbers mindset of the Tampa Bay Rays or Seattle Mariners, the Twins are scout savvy and remain competitive by time after time stocking their queue with pitchers like Wimmers who can throw strikes and have the potential to rise quickly through the organization. 

Twins need to set tables in Oakland

Thursday night’s loss to the Seattle Mariners dropped the Twins to a 13-14 record away from Target Field, lending credence to the notion that the good bats may have failed to accompany the team on their flight from the Lindbergh terminal. 

Without a doubt, the Twins have run headlong into some superior pitching. The Mariners have had the luxury of trotting out two of the dirtiest pitchers in baseball, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, but also have received fine performances from Doug Fister and Jason Vargas. If tough pitching isn’t enough to slow a lineup, Safeco Field is a notoriously emasculating ballpark. As such, Minnesota will vacate the Northwest having scored just one run in each of the past three games.

One of the problems has been the lack of production from the top of the order. After taking strike three in his final at-bat to finish the series inSeattle 1-for-15, Denard Span’s average away from Target Field slunk to .186. Likewise, JJ Hardy and Matt Tolbert, Orlando Hudson’s two-hitter replacements, also went 1-for-15 with a walk in the injured second baseman’s absence. A combined 2-for-30 with two walks from the top gives the meat of the order little to work with. 

Certainly, with Hudson out due to a wrist injury, it greatly diminishes the table-setting capabilities (his 39 runs scored leads to the team) but Span has been almost nonexistent all season when playing on the road. This has been detrimental to the scoring process. As one of the league’s premier lead-off hitters, Span has reached base to lead off an inning 40 times, the most in baseball. According to BillJamesOnline.net, Span and the Twins score 1.15 runs per inning when he reaches base. Conversely, when he fails to reach the Twins score just .49 runs per inning. With a .460 home on-base percentage Span is doing most of this damage at Target Field. When traveling however, Span has exhibited a lowly .262 on-base percentage leading to fewer opportunities to drive him in. 

It is not as if Span has a skill set that is more conducive to his home environment, like Vladimir Guerrero’s hefty advantage in the heated bandbox in Arlington or the opportunistic right field wall at Yankee Stadium which inflated Johnny Damon’s overall totals a year ago. After all, Target Field has been an offense inhibitor as well. Basically, he has been coaxing fewer walks (12% BB% at home versus 9% on the road) while not making as solid of contact (22% line drive rate at home versus 14% line drive rate on the road) so it is easy to see where the drop in on-base percentage originates. In the end, Span’s road woes seem to stem from either a bout of small sample size bad luck (identified by a below average BABIP of .206), the psychological influence of traveling or perhaps a little of column A and a little of column B. 

The Twins high-octane offense has been driven by the combination of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau but that vehicle has been fueled by the ability of Span and Hudson to reach base regularly. Only this seemingly potent output is quelled on the road as the average of runs scored per game drops nearly a full run outside of the 612 area code (5.2 to 4.2). With a three-game series in Oakland starting tonight, the Twins need some signs of life from the top of the order, starting with Denard Span, in hopes of finishing the West Coast road trip with a winning record. 

Batting Hardy second.

After attempting to keep Denard Span from having any children on Sunday night, Orlando Hudson has been MIA from the Twins lineup as his non-throwing wrist heals. On Tuesday, Hudson told the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen that his wrist was feeling better, but said it would be “alright in a few days”, which means we could conceivably be graced with Hudson’s presence once again before this shortened work week ends.

Meanwhile, without his two-hitting mainstay, manager Ron Gardenhire has opted to go with shortstop JJ Hardy as the interim hitter in that spot. Unlike Hudson who has been adept at avoiding outs at this point, reaching safely in 37.7 percent of his plate appearances, Hardy has been one of the larger out-producers in the Twins’ stable. In fact, among those with at least 130 plate appearances thus far in the season, Hardy’s .283 on-base percentage is the 10th worst.

Needless to say, this is not the ideal conduit from Denard Span to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, even if it is just a temporary solution. Outs, regardless of their productivity, are precious. Instead of simply shifting his order up one spot, thereby relocating Mauer and his lofty .392 on-base percentage into the two-slot while pushing Morneau up to the third spot where he can be guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning, which would be plausibly more efficient, the manager has injected his lineup with a heaping ton of vitamin Out.

Of course it is the manager’s preference to avoid the lefty-lefty-lefty combination in his batting order, which is where the right-handed stick in Hardy comes in. While Hardy’s bat plays second fiddle to his glove work, he has been an above-average hitting shortstop in his career and also comes with plenty of experience batting behind the leadoff hitter in Milwaukee. (Of course, Milwaukee is the same organization that continues to employ Carlos Gomez as their two-hitter in spite of a sub-.300 on-base percentage....so, yeah.) What likely makes him an appealing candidate to Gardenhire is that Hardy’s contact rate has been greatly improved since his mechanics have been altered:

 

Hardy’s contact:	Contact%	K%
2010	87.9	14.7
2009	80.7	20.5
2008	83.3	17.2

 

Bat control has long been one of the manager's key traits of a two-hitter.What may have also played a role in Gardenhire’s decision to use Hardy as the two-hitter is how similar the two middle infielders have handled the bat this year. Taking a look at their plate discipline, you can see that both have below average chase rates and above average contact rates:

 

Hardy v Hudson in 2010:	JJ	Orlando
O-Swing%	23.4	21.3
Z-Swing%	57.3	61.6
O-Contact%	71.7	75.9
Z-Contact%	94.0	92.0
Contact%	87.6	87.8

 

Naturally, Hudson’s overall totals have been much better thanks to batted ball numbers. His 24 percent line drive rate has led to a .339 BABIP while Hardy’s propensity for hitting grounders has driven down his totals thanks to a .143 BABIP on those wormburners. Likewise, Hudson has drawn walks in 9 percent of his plate appearances while Hardy has done so in just 6 percent, resulting in a greater deviation in their on-base percentages.

 

To be sure, Hudson should return to lineup in a matter of a few days and all offensive order should be restored and the discussion over the two-hitter strategy will be moot. The takeaway from this is that Hardy hasn’t been all that different from Hudson when you break it down to the brass tax. Both are marginal when it comes to drawing walks and Hudson has accelerated thanks to a very good line drive rate. If Hardy continues to exercise the same plate discipline has he has in the first two months of the season, we could witness solid production as the season continues along, regardless of where he hits in the order.