Around the Central (02.09.10)

Rummaging through the news and notes from the Twins interdivision rivals so you don’t have to:

Chicago White Sox

ESPNChicago’s Bruce Levine notes that the White Sox are in the market for another situational left-handed reliever. Levine speculates that Chicago could potentially target Toronto’s Scott Downs in a trade.

• ANALYSIS: With Matt Thornton and Randy Williams as the two left-handed options on the 40-man roster, the White Sox’s bullpen would be better served by upgrading from Williams, particularly in context to the Twins’ left-handed heavy lineup. Downs, who will be 34-years-old in March, has disassembled same-sided opponents well. In his career, he’s struck out 22% of all lefties and limited them to a .651 OPS. What’s more is that he’s due $4 million in 2010 and will be a free agent after the season so the Blue Jays should be motivated to move him.  Still, other than Justin Morneau (1-for-11, 2 Ks), Minnesota’s heart-of-the-order left-handed constituency has recorded success off of Downs as  Jim Thome (4-for-13, HR, 2B) and Joe Mauer (5-for-10, 2B) have hit the southpaw well. 

MLB.com’s White Sox beat writer, Scott Merkin, believes that the Sox are not interested in bringing back outfielder Jermaine Dye no matter what his price drops to.

• ANALYSIS: While some (surprisingly) National League teams appeared interested in his services, Dye still lingers on the market with pitchers and catchers reporting in a little less than a week.  With age and fielding limitations restricting him to designated hitter duty, Dye’s future is cloudy. His nasty second-half numbers (.179/.293/.297 in 246 plate appearances) might have signaled that he is no longer able to remain productive for an entire 162-game stretch.  As a role player like former teammate Jim Thome’s position with the Twins, Dye could be a very solid contributor. He smacked around left-handed pitching well in 2009 (.292/.387/.508 with 14 extra base hits in 150 plate appearances) and had a muted batted ball average, posting a BABIP of .269, one of his lowest of his career. A team that implements a platoon effectively should wind up with a decent bargain in Dye.

Cleveland Indians

Prior to signing with the Twins, the Indians were aggressively pursuing Orlando Hudson. According to MLB.com’s Indians beat writer, Anthony Castrovince, the cash-strapped organization offered Hudson a two-year, $10 million dollar deal that was heavily backloaded in a 2012 buy-out.

• ANALYSIS: It was an interesting competitor for Hudson’s services. The Indians had spent 2009 shedding payroll, trading the likes of Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Carl Pavano, Ryan Garko and Mark DeRosa to offset the ledger that was hemorrhaging money and refill the farm system. Mark Shapiro and company probably noted the undervalued Hudson available at a bargain buy and concocted a plan to use him for half of the season then flip him for prospects at the deadline. Castrovince said that the Hudson offer had very little financial commitment to 2010 so the bulk of the investment would have been pushed on to another organization. For a team in rebuilt mode like the Indians are, this would have been a good play.

Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes is not convinced that Aaron Laffey will be a member of the Indians’ wide-open starting rotation in 2010.

• ANALYSIS: This really isn’t a surprise but Laffey at one time was a top-flight prospect in the Indians system.  Kind of the Glen Perkins of the Cleveland organization. The left-handed Laffey was able to induce groundballs at an insane rate (62%) while developing in the minors and posting acceptable strikeout rates. This certainly hasn’t translated at the major league level and in each passing year, Laffey loses a little bit of his wormburning and K abilities. Additionally, Laffey, who has never been mistaken for a strikeout artist, walked over four batters per nine innings and saw a good amount of those grounders slip past the infield defense (.262 GBBA) in ’09. He’s still just 25 in 2010 and if he can find control of the strike zone, he could be a capable rotation component.

The Indians head into spring training with hefty competition in left field, including Michael Brantley, Trevor Crowe, Jordan Brown, Austin Kearns and Shelley Duncan.

• ANALYSIS: One of the dividends of the CC Sabathia trade with Milwaukee, Brantley received an early introduction to the majors when Grady Sizemore when down in September. His initial foray into the bigs was a reaffirming one as the 22-year-old hit .313 with an on-base percentage of .358. Those numbers are a tad on the unsustainable side as his average was floated by an inflated .376 BABIP. Still, the kid rarely strikes out, draws walks and has some great speed on the bases so he could be a great addition to the top of the lineup. Kearns is a solid corner outfield defender so he could be used to bring some value to a left field position in which the Indians were the fifth worst in baseball according to the Plus/Minus system.

 

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers locked in Justin Verlander to a five-year, $80 million extension that will keep him in Detroit through his age-31 season.

• ANALYSIS:  Whoa boy. This is going to be one of those careers to monitor. True, Verlander’s essentially has been healthy as horse – only two minor blips pop up on the fantasy pitchf/x DL tool since 2005 – but the team has put a lot of mileage on his arm. Last season, Verlander led all of baseball in Pitcher Abuse Points (219,899 PAP!!!!). This was 125,287 points higher than the runner-up in Tim Lincecum. In 11 of his 35 starts, Verlander threw over 120 pitches, maxing out at 129 and averaging a baseball-high of 112 pitches per start. Five years feels like the perfect length for a pitcher like that but don’t be surprised if some of these high totals result in various arm injuries in the duration of his Motown contract.

The Tigers are still interested in bringing in Johnny Damon, says MLB.com’s Tigers beat writer, Jason Beck.

• ANALYSIS:  After losing one of baseball’s best two-spot hitters in Placido Polanco this offseason (as well as leadoff hitter in Curtis Granderson), acquiring Johnny Damon might be the best counterpunch Detroit can make. Transitioning from Yankee Stadium where the left-handed hitting Damon launched 17 of his 24 home runs to Comerica’s distant outfield fences will certainly zap the majority of his pop, but Damon will still manage to coax walks and caused problems for the opposing team on the bases (12-for-12 in stolen base attempts in ‘09). The question is whether he can field in the more expansive ballpark.    

The Detroit Free Press’s George Sipple relays that Jeremy Bonderman, who is recovering from shoulder surgery, is throwing well down in Florida.

• ANALYSIS:  Right now, the Tigers believe Bonderman, 27-years-old, can be their rotation’s number four starter. If he can go back to his pre-2007 form, he’d be a heck of an addition.  That said, he’s throwing his fastball at 90-mph, down from 93.3 in ’06. Likewise, after getting hitters to miss on 55.2% on all out-of-zone swings that season, hitters have made an abundance of contact, missing on just 36.4% this past season in limited duty. His slider has taken a substantial hit (from 2.34 wSL/C in ‘06 to -10.27 wSL/C in ’09) which may have a lot to do with his diminished velocity on the pitch – dropping from 85.4 mph to 82.0 this season. With an entire offseason of rest on his shoulder, Bonderman is young enough to bounce back but his injury list is extensive and daunting.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have signed Rick Ankiel to a one-year deal (and a mutual option for 2011) and have stated that he will be the team’s starting centerfielder in 2010 says the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger.

• ANALYSIS: In landing Ankiel, the Royals have swapped Mike Jacobs's all-or-nothing power, low-OBP at-bats for Ankiel's similar plate skill set. Ankiel, however, can play a serviceable outfield but is a miscast in center. He's got the arm but his range is deficient. Nevertheless, his acquisition moves Jose Guillen off of the field and into the designated hitter's role thereby improving the defense in that respect.

Royals manager Trey Hillman made some comments regarding his 2010 alignment now that Chris Getz and Josh Fields are in the mix. According to MLB.com's Royals beat writer, Dick Kaegel, Hillman wants Getz at second but will consider him at short if Mike Aviles is not ready this spring. The Royals skipper also wants Fields at third but will get some looks in left field as well.

• ANALYSIS: Since the trade, it's been interesting to see how Hillman will line these players up. The second base incumbent, Alberto Callaspo, hit .300/.356/.457 as the Royals' second best hitter behind Billy Butler. As a line drive hitter who makes regular line drive contact, Callaspo is capable of repeating these numbers (absent the slugging percentage). Defensively, in his first full season at second, he posted a UZR/150 of -7.5. Getz was slightly better in Chicago in the field (-6.7) but is not as skilled offensively as Callaspo. Fields meanwhile has struggled at the major league level to make regular contact, connecting on just 71% of his swings. In the field, he has failed to live up to his namesake committing eight errors in just over 400 innings at third in '09. With Alex Gordon firmly entrenched at third, Fields will get spot starts all over the diamond from third to left to DH which should not help with his flaky contact rate. 

Hudson acquisition addresses Twins' biggest need.

In 1996 the Minnesota Twins scored a massive 877 runs. Today, this still represents the high-water mark for the ballclub’s offensive flood and only the 1936 Washington Senators scored more in the franchise history with 889 (and they did so in an impressive 153 games). That year’s Twins lineup boasted some of the game’s finest on-base machines: Leading off was Chuck Knoblauch’s .448 OBP, fifth best in the AL. Batting third was future Hall of Famer Paul Molitor who exercised a healthy .390 OBP. At cleanup was the sophomore Marty Cordova - fresh off a Rookie of the Year season - procuring a .371 OBP and had yet to be sidelined by a vicious tanning booth injury. Bridging the top of the order in Knoblauch to the heart of the order in Molitor and Cordova was the 24-year-old Rich Becker and his robust .372 OBP.

 

Part of the reason the franchise’s lone offensive juggernaut is frequently forgotten is that the pitching and defense allowed a stunning 900 runs, the most in the team’s history since relocating to the prairie, and finished a distant 4^th, 21.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians. Nevertheless, this 1996 club holds the blueprints to one of the game’s offensive truths: Get production from your two-spot, score a ton of runs.

 

I expanded on this subject matter at length in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook*:  

 

In 1986, Bill James constructed a poignant analysis on lineup composition and revealed that the total runs scored and second spot in the batting order had the strongest correlation among any player in the lineup -- more than leadoff, third or cleanup.  Mr. James noted in his 1986 Baseball Abstract that “many managers tend to waste the second spot in the order by putting somebody there who isn’t one of the better hitters on the team...Too many managers will say ‘bat control’ as if these words were a magic wand, and place some .260 hitter with a secondary average of .150 batting second…”

 

What Mr. James was trying to convey was that a sizable portion of baseball managers were submitting lineups that 1) had an excellent on-base oriented leadoff hitter, followed by a guy that 2) would slap the ball the other way or lay down a bunt thereby advancing the runner but surrendering an out, followed by 3) the team’s best hitter. Conceding the out was not advantageous for an offense. His solution to create an optimal lineup, one would want to enlist as many hitters in a row that avoid making outs – regardless of the out’s so-called productivity.

 

Since Becker’s 1996 campaign, the Twins have not had significant production from the two-spot. In fact that season’s team was the last one to have an OBP above .350 in the two-spot. This has been partial due to personnel and partial due to managerial decisions to implement a contact-heavy, sacrificing mentality.

 

Later on in the same article, I noted:

 

“Fast forward to 2008 - 22 years later – where Twins manager Ron Gardenhire unwaveringly presented a lineup card that embraced Weaver’s logic and opposed the method Mr. James’s research recommended. His use of Alexi Casilla that season reflected the long instituted Weaverian belief that a two-hitter should be an avid bunter as Casilla was the only AL representative among the top ten with 13 sac hits. What’s more, Casilla was the only nonpitcher

(aside from the light-hitting Wily Tavaras) to be on that list as well. This should speak volumes towards A) the belief in Casilla as a hitter and B) the capricious handling of precious outs by management...

{snip}

…This past season, however, the levy finally broke completely. The average batting line from the number two spot in the American League was .277/.337/.430 (767 OPS). In other words, the average number-two hitter was creating outs 66.2 percent of the time. The Twins meanwhile, hit .262/.306/.394, getting out in a whopping 69.4 percent of their plate appearances.”

 

That 69 percent of plate appearance by the number two hitter that resulted in outs was the third highest in the AL. Only the lowly Royals and Mariners recorded more outs from their lineup’s second spot. This lack of production was glossed over because the lineup scored runs in bunches based on the presence of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. While this was a good thing, I implored the Twins to consider how many runs they were passing on neglecting to improve the two-spot, making it an essential Offseason To-Do List item.

 

 “The makeup of a two-hitter can be debated, but a strong contributor’s worth cannot be wholly ignored. There is no telling how many runs were lost or potential rally’s shortened because of poor at-bats by the team’s two-hitters. Had the Twins in 2009 employed a similar hitter to that of Boston (Pedroia), New York (Damon) or Texas (Young), there may have been more opportunities for the middle of the order to drive in more runs. Therefore, in 2010, the organization should attempt to acquire an adequate candidate that can perform duties of a high-caliber number-two hitter. As it stands, that person needs to come from outside the organization.”

 

That person did indeed come from outside of the organization. As of Thursday night, now with the one-year, $5 million contract to second baseman Orlando Hudson, the Twins can cross that gaping need off of their agenda.

 

As outline in length here on Wednesday, Hudson has numerous appealing qualities that the organization called for. While holding a career .348 OBP, in the last three seasons Hudson has greatly improved on this mark, posting a .366 OBP while walking in 10.1% of his plate appearances since 2007. Although I do not foresee Hudson’s OBP reaching quite the same level as it did in the offensive-friendly NL West upon transitioning back into the AL, he’s extremely capable of owning the highest OBP out of the Twins’ two-spot since Rich Becker. Inserting Hudson’s potential of an OBP of .350 or above behind lead-off hitter Denard Span (.390 career OBP) and in front of Mauer (.408 career OBP) and Morneau (.350 career OBP) will give the Twins a chain that will avoid needless outs and should commence pumping out runs ad nauseam.

 

*You haven’t purchased the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook yet?! It’s only $7.95 right now! Go! Go do it now.

Orlando Hudson still lingering on the market.

In the Twinscentric Offseason GM Handbook, we speculated that Orlando Hudson would be the most desired free agent second baseman on the market. After all, his wOBA in the past three years is the sixth-highest (.353) among second basemen, plays above average defense all while turning just 32-years-old in December.  With that in mind, we pegged him primed for a multi-year contract (three years) with an average annual value of $6 million. Turns out, we were the only ones that thought so and in yet another offseason, the market is collapsing in on Hudson.

 

Since the hot stove action began, players that we viewed as inferior second baseman have been signed. Placido Polanco (Phillies, but moving to third base), Jamey Carroll (Dodgers) and Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers) all have found teams. What’s more is that Polanco, two years Hudson’s elder, wound up with the exact contract from Philadelphia that we had earmarked for Hudson.

There are several unbelievable positive attributes about Hudson that are worth mentioning. His 2009 season with the Dodgers in which the switch-hitter produced a batting line of .283/.357/.417 proved that he was still very capable of being an offensive threat even after moving away from Arizona’s Chase Field. That condensed ballpark in the desert allowed Hudson to hit a stalwart .294/.365/.448 between 2006 and 2008. By all accounts, Hudson is poised to continue that production. His BABIP (.332) was thirty-two points above the league’s average, which in some cases would be a sign for some regression, but as a line drive/ground ball hitter with speed, he is very capable of continuing a BABIP that outperforms the norm. Likewise, his career .348 on-base percentage holds up well when you consider his maintained walk rate that is also typically above average. This means that Hudson’s 2010 season is not as contingent on him hitting safely to buoy a respectable OBP (unlike Delmon Young whose lack of walks makes it difficult to hold an OBP above .340).

Furthermore, he’s havoc on the base for the opposing team but very conservative at the same time. In the past three years, he’s swiped just 22 bases, succeeding with an outstanding 84.6% rate. Similarly, in ‘09, Hudson went from 1^st-to-home on doubles eight times in 11 opportunities. This was the seventh highest in all of baseball. To be clear, this is not necessarily a repeatable skill, but if you take into account for the fact that he was on base 65.2% of the time in his career with his quickness, there is a strong likelihood that he will be on base to motor home if his team has some doubles machines behind him (i.e., Mauer, Morneau, Thome, Cuddyer, etc). When you couple this with his plate skills, you see that Hudson makes for an ideal number two hitter.

Reviewing his qualities, Hudson is a product that should sell itself, not the kind of good that needs to be coerced into buying, right? However, the only really suitors left for Hudson appear to be the Washington Nationals, (oddly) the Seattle Mariners and the Minnesota Twins – and even those doors are closing fast. According to Bill Ladsen, Washington’s MLB.com reporter, the team has attempted to woo the free agent but Hudson and the Nationals are not seeing eye-to-eye financially. Hudson had originally sought a $9 million, one-year deal – slightly better than his 2009 contract which came to $7 million total with incentives. Uninterested in paying retail, the Nationals offered a one-year, $3 million contract worth $4 million based on incentives. Despite not getting his desired amount, Hudson appears to have little designs on playing at this discounted rate.

The Twins, meanwhile, have announced that they are strictly Wal-Mart shoppers, only interested in the low price due to their budget limitations. Joe Christensen blogged that he had a gut-feeling that the Twins would pass on Hudson even if his price tag was reduced to $3 million dollars. Even at this extreme reduction, I've got to say that I agree with him. Christensen continued by citing the team’s hopes that Alexi Casilla would rebound to fill the number two spot in the order. Naturally, this inspired outrage among the faithful. Use whatever method or metric you wanted it is impossible to come to a conclusion where Casilla is a better option than Hudson.

Before you head to your pitchforks, consider this: A recoil season is not out of the question for Casilla. While developing in the system, Casilla has shown the capability of getting on base consistently while making a high rate of contact. For the most part, he’s continued that in the majors, exercising a high-walk, low-strikeout rates but had struggled with putting the ball in play well. His .240 BABIP was insanely repressive as his groundball and line drive batting averages were severely below the norms which submarined his entire season. As a career .298/.371/.375 minor league hitter, he has been Orlando Hudson without the pop. Sure, he’ll never achieve the same power numbers as Hudson but he could reach base more frequently and do just as well while on there (Casilla swiped 11 bags without being thrown out). While he has only shown a small portion of that side of him, if Casilla rebounds and plays to his potential, he could be every bit as equal to Hudson but of course, there’s the rub. Whereas Casilla is skilled enough to be Hudson’s equivalent if given an opportunity (and at a price that fits the budget), the guarantee of Hudson’s track record will cost you anywhere from $3 million to upwards of $7 million but with confidence that you purchased consistency in the lineup.

OtB Twins Notes (01.31.10)

Joe Christensen at the Star Tribune reported on his blog that Nick Punto would need minor surgery on his right wrist (throwing wrist). According to Christensen, GM Bill Smith said it as a minor procedure in order to get it “cleaned up” and will be ready by the time the Grapefruit League games start.

• ANALYSIS: As it stands today, Nick Punto figures to be the Twins’ starting second baseman. Yes, there is obviously room to upgrade in either Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez but at the same time Punto is a very serviceable option for an organization that is encroaching on their budget limitations. I do not think I am going out on a limb predicting a better 2010 season at the plate either. In the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, I wrote that “Lipsticking the pig, Punto hit better than his demoralizing batting average would suggest. Hitting line drives on nearly 20 percent of the balls in play, his BABIP was a suppressive .281. Couple that with an improved walk rate (8.6 to 13.9 percent) and Punto did not deserve the overall numbers bestowed upon him in 2009.” How much better will he be in’10? That remains to be seen. While he will be restrictive offensively because of zero power (career .076 ISOP), he could turn in a batting average around .280 with a .340 on-base percentage if his BABIP this coming season is north of his career .301 average. On the field, he’s potentially the best defensive infielder on the roster. In 510 innings at second in 2009, Punto held a very solid 9.4 UZR/150 (7^th best in a minimum of 500 innings). The Plus/Minus system paints a fairly different picture of his glove, noting that he  is very adept at going to his left but is -8 runs when it comes to defending up the middle.  Under this system, Punto was the 22^nd-best second baseman in baseball. Nevertheless, Punto was the only second baseman with 500 or more innings to not commit an error. He’ll be a value menu item that you are surprised it how underappreciated it is. Still, you kind of wonder if manager Ron Gardenhire’s comments towards Orlando Hudson and the timing of this surgery doesn’t inspire Bill Smith to acquire some form of back-up plan in the event Punto does not rebound quickly post-surgery.

Both Tom Powers at the Pioneer Press and Joe Christensen have heard that the Twins seem unlikely to go through the Joe Crede Injury Experience again in 2010. Powers relayed that it seems that the Twins are “unwilling to go through the Joe Crede ‘day to day’ thing again” while Christensen tweeted that he “got hints that Joe Crede won’t be back, even with another incentive-laden deal.”

• ANALYSIS: Imagine you were running a business and you had little to no idea if one of your employees would show up for his shift. You would certainly let him go even if he was one of the best shelf-stockers or burrito-wrappers even while working at a below-standard wage. It is that kind circumstance that playoff-caliber teams have to concern themselves with when team-building. Whether you are using WAR or VORP or whatever, Crede gave the Twins an above-average contribution but at the same time, without any semblance of stability post-June 1. Despite all the value that Crede can provide when healthy, the uncertainty and the developing Daniel Valencia beckons the organization to move on. In this context, Brendan Harris’s multi-year deal now makes more sense even if he is a lateral move. Outside of Harris and Valencia, the Twins could go with Luke Hughes, Matt Tolbert or Nick Punto.

A potential backup outfield option in Eric Byrnes as been taken off the table. Byrnes signed with the Seattle Mariners after being released by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• ANALYSIS: I don't think it was a very realistic target for the Twins nor do I particularly like his fit with the team. It’s interesting to watch the reaction of the baseball community after Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik does anything. He’s certainly getting the Emperor’s New Clothes treatment from the vast majority of analysts. Is this a naked situation or is he strutting around in fine garments? Yes, the 34-year-old Byrnes had suffered injuries and missed substantial portions of the season since 2007 except that he’s cheap and has hit left-handed pitching well in his career (.284/.345/.511) so he could wind up being a useful platoon partner with Griffey Jr if he can remain healthy. Then again, a right-handed bat at Safeco is not the best environment for one with marginal power.

Charley Walters spoke with the recently acquired JJ Hardy about his horrific 2009 season. Hardy offered this as his diagnosis for his offensive woes: “Pushing off my backside a lot, kind of jumping toward the pitcher. And when you do that, it makes your backside get really long; you can't get to inside pitches. Then you start cheating on them, and you get out in front of off-speed pitches. That was the main problem for me last year; that caused everything.”

• ANALYSIS: Hardy’s own assessment is fairly consistent with the one Alex Eisenberg provided a few months ago. Eisenberg’s video breakdown revealed that Hardy was slowly opening up his stance over several seasons – which is him “cheating” at the inside pitch. Commented Eisenberg “He looks like he strides more in the direction of the shortstop, which might cause his hips to fly open, leaving him susceptible to pitches on the outside corner of the plate.” Reviewing some of his pitch-by-pitch breakdown at Inside Edge, we find that Hardy’s biggest weakness was when left-handed pitchers worked him away. Back in November, I detailed this, showing that all his power was drained as he was unable to elevate pitches the way he did in previous seasons. Step one for Hardy is identifying the problem and step two is correcting it. Although I am predicting a bounce back year of sorts for Hardy in 2010 (there’s just no way it could get worse), he’s got a lot of work to do this spring to correct this inconsistency in his swing.

The Twins are keyed up about Francisco Liriano’s winter showing reports Kelly Thesier. Says Thesier “Liriano also was displaying a trimmer physique at TwinsFest. He said that he's lost some weight since the end of last season by placing more of a focus on his physical conditioning -- including running more often. The Twins have taken notice of the changes and are pleased by what they've seen.”

•  ANALYSIS:  Liriano has been the talk of the Twins blogosphere following his unbelievable showing in Game 9 (yes, 9) of the Dominican League series broadcasted on ESPN360.com. In addition to looking trimmer, his velocity was up and his slider had some vicious bite more reminiscent of ‘06. “Confidence” seems to be the tag word thrown around along when it comes to Liriano’s ’09 season, however, that’s more of a catchall jargon used when results are bad (“He’s lost his confidence”) or when they suddenly reemerge (“He’s throwing with confidence out there”). Typically, there is a physical change that a pitcher cannot adapt to which leads to the poor output. In Liriano’s case this was his surgery. Prior to the TJ, Liriano would cock his elbow well above his shoulder (here is a clip from BTF from ’06). This is scap loading or the dreaded Inverted W. Since his surgery, Liriano has adjusted this to load with his elbow below his shoulder when in the cocked position (Andrew Kneeland of TwinsTarget.com has a good video collection to view of this motion). Liriano had trouble adjusting to this new arm action (think about all the new muscle memory he had to learn in a short span). The Dominican performance shows that he can keep his new arm action and find success. The “confidence” is just a byproduct of him adapting. Rant notwithstanding, the strides that Liriano has taken should give the Twins confidence that they could have the division’s best rotation.      

What's Next for Neshek?

Ever since he burst onto the scene as a dominating set-up man in 2006, striking out 53 in just 37 innings of work, people have debated Pat Neshek's motion. Due to its unique quality from start (where he does not raise his lead leg) to finish (after the arm's whipping action concludes with him seemingly firing an imaginary gun in the air), his mechanics became a polarizing subject. One group focused on his biomechanics and chain-fluidity questioned whether he could remain healthy in spite of little to no power generated from the bottom-half of his body; the other group favored the results over the process said don't fix what's not broken.

Without question, Neshek’s unorthodox delivery raises plenty of eyebrows. It’s funky, quirky and seems to hypnotize opponents. Yet somewhere in that organized chaos, there was something putting undue stress on his elbow. By his own admission, Neshek is incapable of changing his delivery. According to Kelly Thesier, while traveling on the Twins’ Winter Caravan, Neshek was asked on more than one occasion if he had designs on altering his deliver since the injury. Neshek said "I can't really throw another way. Everything is going to be the same. Some people think I got injured because I throw a funny way."

If he cannot change, what does this mean for him and the organization?

What stands out to me the most about his mechanics while re-watching this clip from baseballthinkfactory.com, is that Neshek does a significant amount of scap loading. Essentially, scap loading is when a pitcher forcibly pulls his shoulder off of the acromial line, exerting effort to move their arms towards first base (if they are right-handed) or third (if left-handed) and the north-south invisible axis between second base and home. You should be able to pick this out in the pitching clip above but certainly the photo below. This disrupts timing and often puts stress on the shoulder and elbow. This, more than anything else, is his biggest problem.

A

Admittedly, the merits of implementing this type of arm action have been contested. Carlos Gomez, a one-time contributor to TheHardballTimes.com, is a major advocate of this. In a 2007 write-up on Jake Peavy, Gomez tried to explain why he is in favor of scap loading by taking the reader through an exercise to illustrate his point: “Stand up, elbows at shoulder height (or slightly below), forearms parallel to the ground and at a 90 degree angle with the upper arm. Now, imagine someone is behind you and slowly elbow that person without rotating your torso. Feel that stretch in your pec/shoulder? That elastic loading and subsequent unloading of the shoulder (and the correct timing of it) is a big driver of arm speed. Think of it as stretching a rubber band and then letting it go.”

This can generate velocity. No question. For someone who used little of his lower body in his mechanics, Pat Neshek was able to reach around 90-mph on his fastball. Still the real issue is, at what cost? 

Kyle Boddy at DrivelineMechanics.com, on the other hand, is staunchly against it's use. Boddy used some weightlifting science to reaffirm his belief that scap loading is detrimental to a pitcher’s arm. Boddy writes: “For those people who are educated in the field of exercise science and weightlifting, they will all tell you that proper bench press form involves stopping when the elbow is right at (or just beyond) the shoulder line and no further. Why? It is simple: This position of shoulder horizontal abduction is mechanically weak.” Similar to Gomez, Boddy continues by referencing an article from Real Weight Lifting to educate why, mechanically, this is not suited for the body:  “[I]magine you were lying on the bench press. Put your arms up in front of you and hold the imaginary bar. Flair your elbows out to 90 degrees, like most people do on the bench press. Now, pull your elbows back and stretch your chest as if you were lowering the bar down. You’ll find that it’s hard to pull your arms back past a certain point, and you feel a stiffness or tension in the back of your shoulders, behind the rear delt. That feeling is your rotator cuffs being compressed against your shoulder blades, and telling you that the shoulder is not meant to flex in that direction.”

Meanwhile Chris O’Leary, another pitching mechanics guru, believes that scap loading’s use falls somewhere in-between those stances. By his account, O'Leary suggests there to be a correct way to scap load and a dangerous way to scap load. In his dissertation on the practice, O’Leary identifies numerous pitchers whose mechanics have a variation of scap loading. On the list are Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver. What trait all these pitchers’ share is that they keep their throwing elbow below their shoulder. The riskiest method of scap loading, says O’Leary, is just the opposite: when a pitcher raises his elbow above his shoulder line creating what he refers to as the inverted W. In the essay, O’Leary names several pitchers who are guilty of this method including Anthony Reyes, Jeremy Bonderman and Mark Prior. All of those pitchers have had extensive arm and shoulder issues and major corrective surgery (Tommy John and rotator cuff). Looking at the picture below, you can see Pat Neshek belongs in this group. 

Neshek’s method of scap loading surely qualifies as an inverted W. Unfortunately there is an extended trail of scar tissue that originated from pitching like this. He has already admitted he will not make any adjustments. Without any alterations to this approach, I suspect that he is highly susceptible to a slew of injuries, more so now that he’s closing in on his 30’s and he ages.

From the organization’s standpoint, the Twins have navigated through almost two complete seasons without his assistance and do not seem to be convinced that he will (1) return to his pre-injury form or (2) stay healthy. In fact, they built their bullpen anticipating future hiccups. Acquiring set-up Jon Rauch at the trade deadline in ’09 demonstrates this mentality. Unlike some of the other potential trade targets, Rauch’s contract extended through 2010 giving the organization additional cushion if Neshek never fully rebounds. Likewise, although some payroll could have been cut by allowing Jesse Crain walk, instead the Twins offered him arbitration. The Twins are prepared for life without Neshek.