Is Carl Pavano Worth It?

Is Carl Pavano’s arbitration acceptance a genuine bargain signing or did the Twins just purchase Aldi off-brand pitching that will lead to nothing but dissatisfaction? 

When access to the offseason’s premier free agents is restricted by choking amounts of fiscal responsibility, debates like this crop up frequently. By Bill Smith’s own admission in the TwinsCentric GM Handbook, the organization will never “be in the market for the CC Sabathias. We’re not in the market for the top guys.”  Instead, they typically focus on the minimal risk and nominal investments players. Pavano is the epitome of that to the Twins. As one of the handful of free agents on the market that did not spend time on the DL last year, Pavano threw just a hair under 200 innings (199.1) while winning 14 games in the process and posting a solid 147-to-39 K-to-BB ratio - all respectable marks that would have “earned” him a contract of $16.5 million according to fangraphs.com evaluation model.

At the same time in the conventional sense, Pavano’s 2009 season smacks of, well, Jersey Shore crap-tacularness. His 113 earned runs were the most allowed in the AL and his 5.40 ERA was the third highest in baseball (one of the two hurlers ahead of him is very much named Livan Hernandez). This, coupled with the extensive medical problems, thinned the herd of potential suitors. As the winter thickened, it seemed that the Milwaukee Brewers (who are as desperate for pitchers as pre-gaming Packers fans) and the Cleveland Indians (who just want to remind people they are still around) were the only other clubs in pursuit. But when Pavano’s agent started pushing a multi-year contract like a used car salesmen urging you add on the undercoating, the two other shoppers threw up their hands in a no-thanks-we’re-just-browsing manner and walked out of the store. Recognizing the realities of the market, Pavano and his agent decided that a one-year deal with the Twins would be the best method of increasing his free market value.  

To this day, a vast majority of the baseball world places an ungodly amount of emphasis on numbers like the ERA. Yes, it demonstrates that, superficially, Pavano’s season was sub-par however it does not indicate how he actually pitched. His left-on-base rate (66 percent) was well-below league average while his average on batted balls in play (.335) was much higher than the norm. He maintained a very good strikeout rate (6.6 K/9) and did not allow many walks (1.8 BB/9). If he posts similar peripherals next season, his LOB rate and BABIP numbers are almost certain to regress towards the mean. In short, his ERA should end up substantially lower in 2010.

Advanced metrics aside, Pavano possesses high-quality repertoire as well. As a strike-throwing machine, he jumped out in front of hitters 0-1 on 68 percent of batters faced (much better than his counterparts who were averaging 58 percent first-pitch strike). The zone dominance allowed him to use his nasty slider/changeup combination liberally when ahead in the count. For the most part, his stuff was outstanding. Opponents swung at 50 percent of his changeups out of the zone and rarely threw his splitter in the zone but hitters offered at it nonetheless. This pair of pitches led to Pavano being the most chased pitcher in baseball last season as opponents were swinging at 31.6 percent of balls out of the zone:

Pitcher	Out-of-zone Swing%
Pavano (MIN)	31.6
Halladay (TOR)	31.4
Baker (MIN)	30.4
Santana (NYM)	30.3
Billingsley (LAD)	30.2

Where he struggled last year was with his fastball – opponents tattooed his cheddar (.570 slugging, 17 of 26 HR allowed).

The Twins and Pavano will have a symbiotic relationship next season. Essentially, Pavano is auditioning for the multi-year contract at the conclusion of 2010 and needs a venue to do so. The Twins needed a low-cost, low-commitment starting pitcher with a better ceiling than what Jarrod Washburn would provide. If he remains injury-free, Pavano is very capable of supplying the Twins with an arm that has owned the AL Central rivals and a reasonable rate.

Win-win.

Guerrier's Progress.

Not enough good things have been said about Matt Guerrier’s 2009 season.  After tailing off sharply in the second-half of the previous two year, the righty provided sustained dominance and gave the Twins a reliable bridge from starter-to-closer for the entire schedule.  What was has been the difference for the six-year veteran?

 

In 2007, Guerrier roared through opponents from April until the end of July.  In 60.1 innings of work, he possessed a solid 1.79 ERA and a .522 opponent OPS.  By inciting a hefty amount of groundballs (47.6 percent), he was able to keep his batting average against at a tidy .188. Then the workload he amassed in the first four month began to show in August and September. Between the two months, he had worked another 27.2 innings but surrendered six home runs while allowing line drives on 20 percent of balls in play leading to a swollen .477 slugging percentage.  The Twins had limited his role to sixth/seventh innings in the first half of the year, leading to a leverage index of 0.93 but increased his responsibilities in August where he finished the year working some of the most substantial innings with a 1.24 leverage index.  Even with the digression in the season’s final two months, Guerrier’s overall numbers still looked good. 

 

In the first several month of the following season, Guerrier retained his late season duties and was tapped to handle the difficult challenges.  From April through June, Guerrier worked 44 innings and limited opponents to a decent .249 average while working in his highest leverage situations of his career (1.31).  During this span, however, his walk rate had grown to 4.28 BB/9.  His control was slowly eluding him as the season progressed.  This control problem eventually manifested into being stuck behind in the count and forced to come in on hitters.  In August and September, Guerrier threw a first-pitch strike on just 53.4 percent of his batters faced (his career average being 61.6 percent).  Positioning himself in situations that often necessitated a fat fastball, opponents went 10-for-19 (.526) with five home runs after he fell behind in the count. 

 

This output placed the Twins in a precarious position in the 2009 offseason.  Guerrier was arbitration eligible and, if you subtract the month of September from 2007 and 2008, opponents had hit just.237/.299/.367 with 104/45 K/BB ratio in 586 plate appearances, which would make him a fairly solid candidate for a multi-year deal.  Then again, in those two months of September, hitters had pasted him to the tune of .305/.394/.547 with a 23/13 K/BB in 109 plate appearances.  In addition to that the workload combined with his age creeping into his 30s was enough to make one wonder if his arm was starting to experience some fatigue which might lead to some decline in the very near future.  With question marks littering the bullpen, the organization sagely decided to sign him to a one-year deal, most or less to feel him out. 

 

Instead of regressing, Guerrier responded big time.  In 76.1 innings, he held opponents to a .212 batting average and lowered his walk rate from 4.4 to 1.9.  Rather than nibbling with his heater as he had done so in the previous year, he sprayed the strike zone with his fastball – raising his in-zone presence from 48.5 percent to 57.4 percent.  Opponents made a decent amount of contact (81.7 percent) but he kept the ball down in the zone better than he had the past two seasons which led to fewer hard hit balls and the 15^th lowest batting average allowed in the AL (.212) among relievers – courtesy of a 60 percent groundball rate derived from his non-fastball offerings. 

 

There is ample reason to celebrate his contributions in 2009, but is there evidence enough to think he will continue at this pace?  

 

Judging from his 2-run difference between his FIP (4.35) and his actual ERA (2.36), Guerrier is a prime candidate to drop-off.  Revisiting his batted ball numbers, we find that Guerrier’s .212 batting average allowed was heavily influenced by a freak-of-nature low batting average on balls in play.  His .222 BABIP was the fourth lowest among AL relievers.  This is not a trend that typically continues for a pitcher with average-to-above-average stuff; eventually the groundballs find seams and the fly balls find vacant land or carry over the fence.  Needless to say Guerrier’s a much needed component of the bullpen, particularly because the return of Pat Neshek remains an unknown until spring.  While he may be deserving of a multi-year deal based upon the majority of his performance, signing him to anything more than another season would be gratuitous.     

Around the Central (12.16.09)

News and notes from the Twins interdivision rivals:

Chicago White Sox

Looking to secure a lead off hitter and center fielder, the White Sox traded two pitching prospects, John Ely (AA) and Jon Link (AAA), to the Los Angeles Dodgers for the 32-year-old Juan Pierre. The White Sox had troubles finding adequate defensive help in center in 2009, using equal parts Brian Anderson and journeyman Scott Podsednik until Alex Rios was acquired at the waiver deadline. Pierre gives Ozzie Guillen an everyday-type that is probably better utilized as a defensive replacement/fourth outfielder.

• ANALYSIS: This trade signals the end of the Scotty era on the South Side. Podsednik gave Chicago decent production on top of the lineup, hitting a career best .304/.353/.412 in 132 games. After the season the 34-year-old veteran free agent was seeking a multi-year contract, one that the White Sox balked at giving him. Considering his offensive contributions exceeded his career numbers, Podsednik was easily a candidate for regression and a risky multi-year proposition. The Tigers, Giants, Cubs and Royals have all expressed interest in his services.
• ANALYSIS: Pierre, meanwhile, has a very similar skill set to Podsednik but at a much higher cost. Using speed and contact as his main weapons, Pierre put together a strong first-half of the season in Manny Ramirez's absence, hitting .328/.387/.417 with 19 extra base hits in 289 plate appearances. This was followed by a very significant drop-off in the year's second-half as he hit a paltry .264/.318/.339 with 5 extra base hits in 136 plate appearances. Pierre has been a plus-defender (5.6 career UZR/150 in OF) but has a wet noodle of an arm, allowing runners to advance on balls hit in the gaps. He is serviceable as a starter but with $8 million total committed to Pierre in 2010 and 2011, he will have to bring value in the form of his glove but expect a decline in his offensive numbers upon his relocation from the NL. 

During the Winter Meetings, Chicago added free agent reliever JJ Putz to the roster. The White Sox signed Putz to a one-year, $3 million deal that can reach $6.25 million if he winds up being a closer.  Because the Sox's interest in Putz was leaked from the front office, Chicago GM Kenny Williams said the club was forced to add another $500,000 to the base salary. "Let's just say it didn't make it any easier," Wiliams said in a conference call with local media. "You have your jobs to do, and we have ours. Certainly understand what we're up against when things become public. That's why we try to operate, at least since I've been here, at a more discreet level. And it has served us well. The times things have gotten out, publicly there have been some residual effects as a result of it, and in this case there was."

• ANALYSIS: Putz's 2009 ended after 29 innings, shutdown because of forearm pains that an MRI revealed was fraying and tearing. He did not require surgery although his season was ended as a precautionary measure. Prior to that, his fastball's velocity was down (from 95.0 to 93.5 mph) and hitters were not chasing any of his pitches out of the zone (17.9% down from 24.7% OoZ swing). The Sox are hoping that he rebounds to the point where he is still a detriment to righties, who have slugged a career .298 off of him (though some of that minuscule power number can be attributed to playing in Safeco for six years), but since he will not even begin to throw off the mound until Christmas break its hard to say how the 33-year-old's arm will respond with the time off.

The White Sox decided not to tender a contract to right-handed reliever, DJ Carrasco, who made just $440,000 with Chicago last year. In 49 games, Carrasco went 5-1 with a 3.76 ERA and a 62/29 K/BB in 93.1 innings pitched.

• ANALYSIS: Carrasco gave the Sox a versatile arm out of the bullpen, averaging almost two innings per appearance, but was used mainly in low leverage situations. He might give a team that is interested in keeping the ball in the park a decent option at less than a million (Colorado, perhaps?). This past year, the righty increased his usage of his 89-mph cutter (from 29.4% to 46.7%) and threw a straight fastball far less (from 41.0% to 30.4%). The results of which witnessed far fewer long flyballs and more infield flys as opponents made less heavy contact:                                                                            

  	Infield/Fly Ball%	Home Run/Fly Ball%
  2007	7.3	11.5
  2008	13.3	6.7
  2009	13.7	4.9

       

Cleveland Indians

The Indians re-signed pitchers Anthony Reyes and Adam Miller after not offering them contracts by the Saturday deadline. On Sunday, Cleveland extended minor league contracts to the pair and invited Reyes to spring training.

• ANALYSIS: Reyes was a promising pitcher in the Cardinals organization but the talent never manifested itself in St Louis so he was flipped to the Indians for Luis Pedermo. In the early stages of his career, Reyes had several minor injuries to his shoulder. In 2007, Chris O'Leary wrote a piece on the dangers of scap loading (the act of bringing the arm behind the driveline and attempt to pinch your shoulder blades together). There is extensive debate on what the proper method is (if at all) but there a somewhat accepted conclusion that a pitcher should not raise their elbow above their shoulder when in the cocked position - this puts undue stress on the joints. O'Leary notes that Reyes was a big perpetrator of this, suggesting that Reyes will experience some elbow issues. By 2008, Reyes began to miss time due to elbow soreness and in October 2009, doctors determined that Tommy John surgery was necessary. Reyes will miss almost all of 2010 and will stand reminder of why scouting departments need biomechanics analyzing motion of pitchers.

According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes, GM Mark Shapiro is interested in bringing back first baseman/outfielder Ryan Garko who was non-tendered by the San Francisco Giants. In five seasons, Garko has compiled a .279/.351/.441 career line but has hit .313/.392/.495 against lefties in 485 plate appearances.

• ANALYSIS: After being traded to the Giants from Cleveland in July, Garko struggled in the National League. In 127 plate appearances, he hit .235/.307/.330 with just 2 home runs but some of the production drop can be attributed to a level of bad luck has he had a low BABIP (.243) despite hitting a wealthy portion of line drives (18%). While advertised as a corner outfielder, Garko's fielding prowess should tether him to first base. Currently, the Mets, Nationals, Orioles and Rangers are all potential suitors for Garko.

 

Detroit Tigers

One of the few clubs active during the Winter Meetings, Detroit participated in a three-way deal that sent center fielder Curtis Granderson to New York and starter Edwin Jackson to Arizona to receive a bounty of left-handed reliever Phil Coke (from NYY), starting pitcher Max Scherzer (AZD), minor league prospect Austin Jackson (NYY) and left-handed reliever Danial Schlereth (AZD).  

• ANALYSIS: Granderson's offensive woes against left-handed pitching reached a point where the Tigers did not feel comfortable playing their starting center fielder when a southpaw was on the mound. In 199 plate appearances, Granderson hit just .183/.245/.239 while striking out 21.1 percent of the time. As a player that was reaching the later stages of his peak playing years with a reasonable contract signed through his age-32 season, Detroit opted to remove what would be at least a $20.25 million obligation to a player they started to view as a platoon candidate. In New York, Granderson's lefty problems and escalating costs is not a cause for concern as it is for Detroit needs to replenish a farm system and cut payroll, but his left-handed power will play well with Yankee Stadium's achievable right field seats and his defensive numbers should look better as the amount of real estate to cover is smaller in the Bronx.
• The 23-year-old Austin Jackson is a somewhat overrated talent. While a good defender, his offense in the past two seasons clouds his projections. Since hitting .345/.398/.566 in High-A, Jackson's seen his power numbers and walk rate drop and his strikeout rate swell from 16% to 22%. The Tigers have said that they plan on using Jackson as an outfielder in 2010 so given his history, Detroit can expect some struggles as he adapts to the higher level.
• Max Scherzer's power arm fits in well with the Tigers model however as pitching coach Rick Knapp worked hard to reduce the number of walks allowed, Scherzer's control will give Knapp a new project not unlike the challenge the departed Edwin Jackson presented. If that can be corrected, Scherzer could be a very dangerous compliment to Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello. With a 94-mph fastball and a 85-mph slider, his 2009 3.88 xFIP suggested that Scherzer could have a sub-4.00 ERA in 2010.   
• After increasing their payroll steadily since 2004, raising the total from $64 million to a high of $137.6 million in 2008, the Tigers have started to attempt to recoup on some of the trades made from 2007 to 2009. Especially after emptying out the system for Edgar Renteria, Maggilo Ordonez and Dontrelle Willis. 

With Fernando Rodney scheduled to make an exodus from Detroit, possibly to Philadelphia, the Tigers are searching for options to replace him as the closer. According to MLB.com's Jason Beck candidates include free agent Kevin Gregg and internal options in Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Joel Zumaya.

• ANALYSIS: Gregg has been one of those closers whose value and perceived value was overinflated by the save statistic. After being traded from the Angels to the Marlins, Gregg saved 61 games while allowing a lot of baserunners (1.25 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9). When arbitration costs pushed his salary north, the Marlins traded him to Chicago for a hard-throwing closer prospect Jose Ceda. In Chicago, Gregg increased his strikeout rate but saw a high number of flyballs slip over the fence (15% HR/FB) and eventually lost his closer job to Carlos Marmol. As a fly ball pitcher (44.3% in 2009) an environment like Comerica would be beneficial, similar to how it played for Brandon Lyon. The Orioles seemingly are the only competition for Gregg.
• Joel Zumaya, although once considered the Tigers closer of the future back in 2006, has spent 353 days on the disabled list since then. Most recently, Zumaya had surgery on August 21st to repair a non-union stress fracture in his shoulder. While his stuff is still electric - averaging 99-mph in 31 innings of work and getting a swing-and-miss 26.4% of the time - shoulder surgeries are usually a long healing process that can zap a lot of the velocity. Said GM Dave Dombrowski "He's never going to have a 100-percent shoulder. It's just not going to happen. He had major surgery in his shoulder, and so it's not going to be 100 percent. So they have said that everything will be fine, but you still have to see it."
• Ryan Perry, 23 years and 89 professional innings old, is another potential candidate.  He throws was is classified as a heavy 95-mph fastball and a 85-mph change up that mixes up opponents. On Perry, Dombrowski commented that the righty “has the mentality to do it. He’s going to have to develop a little more consistency, which doesn’t surprise you, because he’s only been pitching professionally for a little more than a year."

 

Kansas City Royals

The Royals signed 35-year-old Jason Kendall to a two-year, $6 million dollar deal to be the team's primary catcher. Said Kansas City GM Dayton Moore of Kendall's acquisition "As we build our pitching staff — not only the young pitchers we have at the major-league level but also the young corps of pitchers and catchers who will be in major-league camp either this year or next year — his presence and leadership will develop a culture that we’re going to need.”

• ANALYSIS: Instead of re-signing either John Buck or Miguel Olivo - a combo that helped the team's catchers hit a combined .814 OPS - the Royals committed two seasons to an aged product who has not had a wOBA above .300 since 2006. I've long given up attempting to figure out if there is strategy or if these maneuvers come to Moore in some hallucinations that he must fulfill. Moore seems to be basing this on Kendall's ability to squat for 130-games but at 35, odds are that he won't quite reach that milestone in 2010 and probably even less in 2011.

In addition to John Buck, who was immediately signed by the Blue Jays, the Royals non-tendered Mike Jacobs, the first baseman they acquired prior to the start of the 2009 season for reliever Leo Nunez.

• ANALYSIS: From miles away, this was a disastrous move. Jacobs, a low on-base (.318 OBP)/high strikeout (21.5% K%) hitter, spent 2008 hitting a career-high 32 home runs and in the process raising his arbitration value. Not willing to write those checks for just power alone, the Marlins flipped him for reliever Leo Nunez. The Royals quickly discovered why due diligence is necessary in baseball. Of Jacobs 32 home runs, 14 (or 43.7%) were classified as "Just Enough". Almost half of his home runs barely cleared the fence in 2008. Couple that with relocating him to a stadium that mutes home run power and it is only expected that his totals would decline. 

Kansas City agreed to a minor league contract with former Twins pitcher Philip Humber and have invited him to spring training.

• ANALYSIS: These are the kinds of low risk, medium reward deals you take on when you have finished at the bottom of the division perennially. Optimistically, he might find a role in the bullpen but has not shown that he is capable of being a main component. There might also be the outside possibility that he is injured. For the past three seasons in the minors, Humber opponents have made better contact while he has struck out less and has walked more:

  Humber - AAA	H/9	BB/9	K/9
  2007	8.4	2.8	7.8
  2008	9.6	3.2	7.0
  2009	10.2	3.4	6.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spit-take! Mauer's MVP.

Baby Jesus wins MVP with crazy good numbers.  Here's some of the latest from around the world on our hometown hero's big award:

• Patrick Reusse at the Star Tribune presents a hat-in-hand apology for his accusations in 2001.  Sort of. While Mauer's 2006 season should have satisfied even the stubborn of defenders of the draft-Prior crowd, the MVP award finally allows the crusty columnist to offer up a sincere apology...but then quickly disguised his folly in the same camp as those that insist on relocating Mauer from behind the plate: "You betcha, we members of the draft-Prior crowd were morons, although no more so than the naïve media types and masses of civilians insisting the wise course for the Twins was to move Mauer from behind the plate." Mr. Reusse, you drink your medicine and you drink it alone! 
• It is an amazing turn around for Mauer from a year ago.  According to John Shipley's write-up at the Pioneer Press, Justin Morneau told reporters that his back was in such rough shape last November that Mauer could not get out of his car.
• ESPN Rise, a magazine dedicated to all things high school sports, proclaimed Mauer the best high school athlete this decade in spite of playing just two years of sports (2000-2001).  
• Confident that SI columnist Joe Posnanski has a man-crush on the Twins organization in general, starting with a bromance with manager Ron Gardenhire, Pos submits one of his patented curiously long posts dedicate to anointing Mauer the most coveted players on the planet - more so than Albert Pujols, but for good reason.  
• Ken Davidoff of Newsday tweeted that the lone reporter that did not view Mauer as the league's MVP was Keizo Konishi. Konishi, a Seattle-based writer who declared Miguel Cabrera to be the league's most valueable player, will forever be known as the guy who did not understand what he was voting for.  Apparently, he was voting for "Most Likely to Get in a Drunken Knife Fight with Wife".
• CBS Sports baseball writer Scott Miller heavily encourages the Twins to lock up Mauer now.  Like many national columnists, Miller placates the locals and resorts to Minnesota cliches like "when in the name of Lake Minnetonka...", "more Minnesotan than ice fishing..." and "maple-syrup coated voice".  That said, I would describe Miller's writing as "less substance than all of the CIS shows combined".  
• Joe Christensen explores Mauer's current contract extension atmosphere with the Twins' front office.  Reportedly, the Twins are in contact with his agent, Robert Shapiro (father of Indians' GM Mark Shapiro), and are driving to get a contract in place before Christmas.  While Mauer's annual average salary could easily hit the $20 million mark, Christensen compares the Twins plight to that of the Rockies where they signed first baseman Todd Helton to a dehabilitating nine-year, $141.5 million contact chewing up 30 percent of Colorado's payroll.  In a very similar market to Denver, the Twins could experience the same type of handcuffing the Rockies are shackled with every free agent season, forcing a trade a Matt Holiday before his free agent year.  However, it should be noted that the Rockies have remained competitive through a very rich farm system and solid ROI's on trades like Holiday. 
• I'm probably not the only one that has had enough of the Yankees playing the role of the guy-who-thinks-he-can-get-any-girl-in-the-bar, but if you are not LoHud Valley News's Sam Borden lusts after the Minnesota catcher in Yankee pinstripes.  Adds Borden, "Mmm. Yeah. Get me some..."
• Meanwhile, Pioneer Press columnist and amateur psychologist Charley "Shooter" Walters plays the Endorsement Card, suggesting that the lure of added revenue on top of the AAV from the Nikes and Gatorades will entice Mauer to uproot from the plains and land square in New York City.  Shooter's unfounded hypothesis needless will send Yankees fans into a tizzy, much like this one from the Subway Squawkers.  
• The honorable Peter Gammons at ESPN proclaims that the Twins chances of retaining Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau is "unlikely".  While a trade is certainly not off the table in the ensuing year, Morneau is locked in through 2013 and Mauer's when-not-if contract should keep him in Minnesota until at minimum until 2017 so the duo would play at least three more seasons together.  I would be very surprised to see Morneau actually finish his contract in Minnesota.  At the end of Morneau's contract, the lefty would be moving into his age-33 season which is when hitters have already begun to have broken down (especially heavier first baseman-types with no where else to move to except DH).  While he could still be a dangerous hitter, Morneau's trade value to the Twins would probably far exceed his extension value particularly if Mauer's contract is 30 percent of the payroll.

Why We Should Care About Pitching Independent of Fielding

When the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner conceded during a press conference that he follows a lesser known three-letter acronym statistic (FIP) than the reigning mainstream accepted one (ERA), pundits took to the keyboards to either extol his virtues of being a forward-thinker or criticize his tomfoolery of shrouding himself in “new age” nonsense.   Why hesitation exists to embrace FIP is beyond my comprehension.  Yes, relinquishing what you are comfortable with is difficult, but it is worth it.  While it may be exhaustive to replace finely tuned DVD collection with a more elaborate BluRay, it makes the experience that much better.   But replacing ERA with FIP isn’t even comparable to DVD-BluRay, it’s like swapping Silent Film-for-BluRay, the technological upgradegoes leaps-and-bounds.

 

The analogy is fitting in more ways than one considering silent films were of the era in which ERA was first conceived.  The Earned Run Average, as Alan Schwarz notes in his book The Numbers Game, developed during a time in baseball when fielding was an adventure.  Balls were often booted due to little padding in gloves, roughly 21 fielding errors per game.  In 1867, a newspaper decided to label any run scored without the assistance of a fielding error to be an “earned” run.  This metric, as Schwarz states, would be the root of how we evaluate pitching.  Therefore, the ERA evolved from efforts to judge batters and fielders, not pitching.  This, readers, is back-asswards.

 

Still, nothing was officially tracked.  Henry Chadwick, the man credited with inventing the boxscore and was an avid and influential statistician, refused to associate earned runs with pitching.  As a man who edited numerous journals on baseball at the time, his rejection of the earned run stuck and pitchers were most commonly ranked by wins or winning percentage.

 

In 1912, the openings of Fenway Park and Tigers Stadium signified major changes in the game’s economic structures as ballparks transitioned away from their wooden predecessors.  The statistical game was changing too.  Several years prior, the Earned Run’s biggest opponent and vocal baseball forefather, Chadwich, passed away creating a void as the gatekeeper of statistics.  A National League secretary named John Heydler, who saw value in measuring pitching in some form, introduced a newly refined version of the Earned Run to the world.  Instead of figuring out the average of earned runs per game, Heydler used innings – which is why we divided by innings then multiplied by nine.

 

In essence, it took 45 years for baseball to recognize that pitching needed some form of measuring stick for pitching performance.   Yet, it has been another 97 years and much of the baseball world is still using to the same prehistoric assessment of pitching. 

 

Since 1912 there have been endless amounts of changes in the game – ranging from equipment to training to the pool of players to the field’s themselves – but pitching is still measured within the same confines that were established in 1867 with little irony towards what it was actually gauging.  Over the years, teams still invested heavily on pitchers with low-ERAs suspecting they would remain miniscule forever, rarely considering the quality of the eight other men on the field or the field itself.  Conversely, many pitchers with high-ERAs were unfairly accused of poor results when, in actuality, no one accounted for the statuesque fielders or bandbox of a stadium adversely effecting their averages.

 

In the late 1990s, sabermatician Voros McCracken went about solving that.  He theorized what we do know is that baseball doesn’t happen in a bubble; there are limitless amounts of possibilities once the ball leaves the bat and that pitchers had little authority on what happened once a hitter made contact.  Despite everyone’s preconceived notions that good pitchers could “control” where the ball goes once in play (i.e. A pitcher could get that double play groundball if he wanted to) McCracken’s studies found that to all be a bunch of malarkey: The best pitchers at limiting hits one year could very well be the worst next year.  The researcher then set out to isolate all pitcher-influenced items and remove all defense-influenced items from the number.  What were left were five categories: Walks, Strikeouts, Home Runs, Hit Basemen and Intentional Walks.  The formula used to calculate his newfound DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistic) drew much debate but his thesis was accepted.  A few years later, Tom Tango, best known for authoring The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, messaged the DIPS into a more commonly known FIP (Fielding Independent Statistic) which we find readily available at Fangraphs.com.

 

Why would we want to use FIP instead of ERA? 

 

The objective of evaluating talent consistently is the biggest one.  While ERA can help identify a good season, it does not hold more predicative value.  Studies have found that the correlation between a pitcher’s FIP and his future success is stronger.

 

For example, fortunate fly ball pitchers blessed with spacious outfields and distant fences guarded by speedy outfielders often can produce misleading ERA numbers.  Jarrod Washburn’s 2009 stint in Seattle is a textbook version of this scenario.  In spite of having below-average strikeout rate and above-average contact, Washburn maintained a tiny 2.64 ERA while exercising a .225 batting average allowed.  How was a career 4.13 ERA pitcher shaving one-and-a-half runs off of his ERA?  Defense and home park.  As a pitcher that surrenders fly balls nearly 43% of the time, his average on those fly balls should have been closer to the league average of .223.  Instead, Washburn’s alignment of Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro and Endy Chavez snared almost everything floating past the infield (.130 average on fly balls).  Likewise, Washburn avoided giving up long balls because his home field, Safeco, was 24^th of the 30 MLB ballparks in home runs allowed.  Prior to departing for Detroit, the difference between his FIP and his ERA was nearly 1.20 points higher in favor of his FIP.  Unless given the exact set of circumstances he had in Seattle at the beginning of 2009, Washburn is destined not to repeat his early season success.

 

FIP can also help weed-out better than expected talent.  Carl Pavano’s rotund ERA of 5.10 in 2009 was misleading in the sense that he was a much better pitcher than seemed.  While in Cleveland, Pavano tallied a high strikeout total and a miniscule walk rate but was burdened by bad defense (one that posted a .670 DER versus a league average of .696) leading to additional runners circling the bases to score.  Few more outs have been converted behind him and Pavano’s ERA may have looked much cleaner.  The only dings in his FIP (4.00 – 11^th in AL) came in the form of home runs allowed.  Before his trade to Minnesota, Pavano played in the most home run restrictive parks in ’09 (Progressive Field, 30^th of 30) yet allowed 1.36 HR/G (well above league average of 1.03) while in Cleveland.

 

So what we know is that FIP does a better job of predicting a pitcher’s success (and his in-season performance) than that of ERA, nevertheless, it is frowned upon by the establishment when mentioned, much like those who questioned blood-letting in the 18^th century.  It does take a handful of prominent people within the game to change the mindset - and having a Cy Young winner reference FIP certainly assisted in advancing the metric.  If nothing else, it sent tenured beat writers’ scrambling to Wikipedia to figure out what Greinke was talking about.  Hopefully for a team like the Twins, using the stat more will help them avoid a catastrophe like Washburn or grab another low-valued pitcher like Pavano.