The Fabulous Baker Boy

For his first several years of MLB service time, Scott Baker enjoyed building his frequent flyer portfolio by bouncing between Minneapolis and Rochester from 2005 until this past season where, without an identifiable frontline starter (unless you consider Livan Hernandez a frontline starter and I certainly don't), Baker stepped up as the leader of the rotation going 11-4 in his 28 starts and increased his K/9 from 6.39 in 2007 to 7.32 in 2008.  That's not all:

 

• His FIP was the sixth-best among qualified starters in the AL Central (but would quickly ascend the list due to the departure of Javier Vazquez). 

• Had it not been for the phenomenal season by the Indians' Cliff Lee, Baker would have captured the title of best WHIP in the division at 1.18 - instead he has to settle for second-best in the Central and fifth overall in the American League.  
• His 3.35 K/BB finished second only to Lee once again in the division and sixth behind the good company of names like Halladay, Beckett, Mussina, Santana and Shields.  This was an improvement of two places from 2007 when he finished eighth in that category. 

 

2008:	Age	Innings	FIP	K/BB	LD/GB/FB%	HR/FB%	WHIP
S. Baker	27	172.3	3.79	3.35	21/33/46	8.5%	1.18

  

Given this progress it seemed like a natural decision that the Twins signing him to a four-year, $15.25 million dollar contract with an option for a fifth season worth $9.25, effectively buying out his three arbitration years for $14.5 million.       

 

Contract:	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Total
S. Baker	$750,000	$3 M	$5 M	$6.5 M	$9.25 (Option)	= $15.25 M ($24.5 w/ Option Year)

Red = Arbitration Years Bought

Green = Free Agent Years

 

Given the lengthy commitment to purchasing Baker's arbitration years, a quick due diligence should be paid to figure if Baker can sustain his 2008 output over the course of the contract. 

 

STUFF:

 

Though it may not seem obvious considering his velocity is a rather middle-of-the-road 91.7-mph but Scott Baker possessed the best fastball in the American League Central in 2008.  According to my WHIFF breakdown, among starting pitchers that made a minimum of 20 starts, Scott Baker had the highest WHIFF (.176).  What's more is that Baker's fastball WHIFF was in a league of its own in 2008 among the qualified candidates -- as 17.6% of all swings on the pitch reached the catcher's mitt.   On average the AL Central featured swing-and-misses on just 8.5% (.085 WHIFF) of fastballs.  For the record, Greinke's 14.6% (.146 WHIFF) was second only to Baker (followed then by Fausto Carmona, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar). 

 

Baker ranked second in the American League in out-of-zone swings (31.5%) thanks to his slider (.278 WHIFF) set up with his impeccable control of his fastball.  Only Ervin Santana and his sick slider (.387 WHIFF) featured an out-of-zone swing percentages higher than Baker (31.7%).In 2007, Baker was the most chased pitcher in the American League among those throwing at least 140 innings (33.7%). 

 

 

Stuff:	FB WHIFF/ %	Curve WHIFF / %	Slider WHIFF/ %	Change WHIFF/%	K%
2007	.127 / 59.9%	.200 / 5.8%	.259 / 29.5%	.200 / 4.5%	16.8%
2008	.176 / 61.8%	.180 / 7.2%	.278 / 19.7%	.159 / 4.5%	20.0%

 

ARM INJURY RISK (the Joe Mays clause):

 

When an organization makes a significant investment, they should consider the potential for injury.  In 2008, in 28 starts, Scott Baker accumulated just 54 pitcher abuse points (PAP).  This amount was well-below the AL Central average of 108 PAP this past year.  Justin Verlander led the division with 383 followed by Gil Meche (281), Cliff Lee (266) and Javier Vazquez (236).  In 28 starts, Baker wound up throwing over 110 pitches in just two games.  For comparison's sake, Verlander threw over 110 pitches in 16 of his 33 starts and threw over 120 pitches twice.  What does a light pitch count do for Scott Baker?  Unlike the aforementioned quadruplets, Baker's arm has little to no wear-and-tear on it from 2008 making the likelihood that his 2009 will be injury-free (at least in his arm) that much greater. 

 

Injury Risk:	2008 PAP
S. Baker	54

 

THE LUCK FACTOR:

There are several indicators that may suggest a higher ERA in 2009:

 

• Baker's batting average on balls in play was .290 last year, slightly below the league-average of .300.  This was a serious decrease from a year ago when he had a BABIP of .327 - well above the league average.  This differential helped shave his ERA from 4.26 to 3.45.  Even though it is a small adjustment from .290 to league-average, Baker saw fewer flyballs find the ground (.118 vs .167 FB BABIP) thanks to a much improved outfield defense in 2008.  Depending on what defensive alignment the Twins choose to favor will have a big influence on his BABIP numbers.  More hits mean more baserunners which spell more runs.
• Last season Baker led the entire AL with a left-on-base percentage of 78.7%, well above the expected league average of 72% suggesting that Baker could regress to the mean this coming season as a result allowing a few more runs thus inflating his ERA.  However, some studies have shown that pitchers that have K/9 over 7.0 (as Baker did in 2008) have a 52% chance on a LOB% of over 73%.  Judging from Baker's stuff listed above, he has the repertoire to sustain a K/9 above 7.0. 
• As an extreme flyball-oriented pitcher, Baker stands a very good chance of allowing home runs.  For whatever reason maybe in 2008, his 8.5% HR/FB% was below the baseball average of 10.0%.  Don't be surprised if Baker is the victim of a few more gopher balls in 2009.

 

Luck:	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB%
2007	.327	72.0%	7.6%
2008	.290	78.7%	8.5%

 

CONCLUSION:

 

Overall, given his pitching stuff, low injury risk and little worry that he will deviate too far from his 2008 numbers in the coming years, Baker has a better than average chance of maintaining consistency throughout the duration of his contract extension.  His contract is diligent in securing his prime years between the ages of  27-through-30 and allows for the option of his 31-year-old season if he is still effective at the backend of his contract extension.  Baker is essentially a finished product and should be plateauing between now and at least his 30-year-old season in 2012.  The Twins have retained one of the American League's best pitchers with a solid contract.

Projecting Francisco Liriano in 2009

In 2006, the left-handed pitcher dubbed "The Franchise" featured a wipe-out slider that he threw 40% of the time to harmonize with his 95-mph fastball.  It was this lethal combination that incited batters to miss nearly 65% of the time on pitches thrown outside the zone and led to a 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings.  And even if batters did manage to put the ball in play, Liriano induced a groundball on 55% of all contact.  The career detour known as Tommy John surgery would erase his entire 2007 campaign and forced Liriano to reinvent himself as a pitcher.

 

Things were slightly different for Liriano when he finally returned to the big league hill in April of 2008.  He no longer possessed the 95-mph fastball, instead it was replaced by a 90-mph version and his sharp slider that bit hard at right-handed batters ankles was not traveling 87-mph towards the plate as it had been in 2006.  It spun up to the plate at a lackluster 79.8-mph.  Unlike a torn rotator cuff injury, the recipient of Tommy John often re-obtain their velocity - what changes is their ability to control and throw the various breaking pitches.  The Twins jammed a ball deep into Liriano's left hand and told him to learn to throw a changeup more frequently.  Coaxing the pitch out of him came gradually.

Pitch Type	FB Vel / %	SLD Vel / %	CHG Vel / %
2006 Season	94.7 / 43.6%	87.7 / 37.6%	83.5 / 18.7%
April 2008	90.4 / 55.8%	79.8 / 27.2%	80.5 / 17.0%
August 2008	90.7 / 54.8%	83.9 / 26.1%	82.0 / 19.1%
September 2008	91.2 / 51.1%	84.9 / 26.4%	83.0 / 22.4%

 

As a result of his increased velocity and his liberal use of the changeup coupled with his ability to locate pitches within the strike zone, Liriano saw opponents taking more swings at pitches outside of the zone.  Although opposing batters were making significant contact in April and August, Liriano made more bats miss in the final month of the season, an indication that he was finding the right mix of speed.  With this inflation in pitches chased and overall zone presence, Lirano's strikeout totals spiked back to near-2006 totals in the final month of the season.  

 

Plate Discipline	Out-Of-Zone Swing%	Contact %	Zone %	K/9
2006 Season	27.5%	65.4%	54.8%	10.71
April 2008	15.5%	78.5%	45.0%	6.10
August 2008	30.7%	77.7%	47.2%	7.12
September 2008	29.2%	71.4%	52.0%	9.62

 

Liriano's batted ball stats also reflect how a different approach can wildly alter the end results.  In 2006, Liriano was an extreme groundball pitcher, a direct correlation of the downward action on his slider.  The 2008 version of Liriano used change of speed to fool his opponents, often receiving swings from batters well ahead of the offspeed pitch.  Instead of pounding a plummeting slider into the ground, batters were out on their front-foot elevating a changeup. 

 

Batted Balls	LD%	GB%	FB%
2006 Season	21.3%	55.3%	23.4%
April 2008	22.9%	42.9%	34.3%
August 2008	11.2%	48.6%	40.2%
September 2008	25.0%	32.1%	42.9%

 

What does this mean for Francisco Liriano in 2009?  Liriano won't be the pitcher he was in 2006 but he won't be the pitcher he was in 2008 either - the most likely scenario is a hybrid variation.  His numbers in his last month of 2008 probably provide the best window in which to project Liriano.  What will change going forward is his batted ball totals.  Because he is throwing the slider less frequently and throwing two pitches that have higher contact rates more often, Liriano will see a jump in total number of balls in play.  However, by regaining his velocity and still having two solid pitches in his slider (.350 WHIFF) and changeup (.313 WHIFF), Liriano will still be a strikeout-oriented pitcher with a K/9 encroaching on the 10.0 mark.    

 

Odds. Ends. (03.04)

 

• The Twins' 2008 first round draft pick ( 27th overall) Carlos Gutierrez's introduction to his organization's offense unfolded rather poorly.  After finishing 2008 with High-A Fort Myers, Gutierrez was asked to participate on the Puerto Rican team in the World Baseball Classic.  In their exhibition game against the Twins, Gutierrez was brought into the game in the fourth inning - an inning in which he failed to complete.  The 22-year-old gave up two runs on two hits (including a Joe Crede double) in two-thirds of an inning.  The Twins are looking to covert the former University of Miami closer into a starter because of what Baseball America describes as a "Major League-ready sinking fastball".

 

• The Oakland A's are reportedly close to reaching terms with former White Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera.  According to inside sources, the deal is worth approximately $4 million dollar for one-year of the 34-year-old shortstop's services.  Yes, the deal is valued at half of what the Twins committed for Nick Punto, someone that has not fielded an entire season as a starting shortstop.  The concern of many potential suitors was Cabrera's status as a Type A free agent (as close to leprosy a free agent can get this offseason) costing a first round draft choice to the purchaser.  The Twins, had they reached a similar deal Oakland did, would have had to forfeit their #22 overall draft choice in 2009.  This is a steep price to pay for a declining talent in Cabrera.  The A's, however, always vigilant of a bargain, have the #13 draft pick which is a protected selection.  Instead, the A's will have to concede their second round draft pick making Cabrera that much of a better deal for Billy Beane's organization. 

 

• Oakland is also a candidate to sign former Twins' lefty Dennys Reyes according to the San Francisco Chronicle.  It is safe to say that Reyes will not receive the three-year, $12-million contract he was seeking from Cincinnati at the offseason's infancy.  When it was clear that the Twins had no inclination to bring Reyes back, I wrote an ode to how good Reyes's minor league signing in 2006 was to the organization.  In his three seasons in a Twins uniform, Reyes threw 126.3 innings with a 2.14 ERA and a 109-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio for a low sum of $2.55 million AND if the A's action soon, the Twins will receive an additional draft pick in 2009 as well.  That's a pretty good investment. 

 

• From the computer of SI.com's Tom Verducci: "This is hard to imagine, but Livan Hernandez could help this team. He looks to be in good shape and throwing well. If the Mets need him to make 32 starts they're in trouble, but New York will have far better pitching depth than it had in previous years if Hernandez can work a little of his 83 mph magic for 15 starts or so."

 

• It appears that the Twins should be relieved that they allocated their $3 million dollars elsewhere.  According to Milwaukee Journal Sentinal's Tom Haudricourt the Brewers' Eric Gagne will be sidelined for some time due to a "shoulder ailment".

 

• You know your bar has been lowered considerable when the headline reads "Dontrelle Willis' outing has strong finish" yet you managed to walk the 7, 9 and 1 hitters.  The walk to the leadoff hitter, Endy Chavez, forced in Willis' only earned run.  Everything's coming up Willis!

 

• If you've got the ESPN Insider, Buster Olney has some excellent details on Francisco Liriano progress through working with Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson:  "Look, he's always going to have a violent delivery. … Every once in a while, he'll go back in his mechanics and it's still going to be violent. We're still trying to get him to finish off his pitches consistently, rather than cutting his delivery off. But he's better."

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game #5)

Game: Twinks 1, Red Sux 2

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 4-1

 

 

 

The Quote: "Right now, I think I'm the best centerfielder." - Carlos Gomez.

 

The Notes:

 

• The Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis's solo home run off of Craig Breslow was the difference between the Twins remaining perfect in the 2009 Grapefruit League season.  If the picture above feels strange that's because it is: In 38.2 innings of work in 2008 in a Twins uniform, Breslow did not allow a home run.  It also sounded like this particular one by Youkilis was assisted by the wind according to John Gordon and Dan Gladden on KSTP.  Still, with his 40% flyball percentage, it is only a matter of time before a few stray balls find their way over the fence.  Better to have happened in spring training. 

 

• Joe Nathan announced that he is withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic due to an irritation in his shoulder, located in his AC joint - where the collarbone and clavicle meet on top of the shoulder.  The news that he is not participating in the WBC is irrelevant.  What is of concern is whether Nathan will be ready by the season opener as the Twins would be forced into the less-than-ideal possibility of having Luis Ayala close out games.  Since his one inning outing against Boston last week, Nathan has not yet thrown and still experiences discomfort in the shoulder area.  Nathan, of course, downplays the situation. "It's kind of been not bad, but the irritation just got a little (greater) as we've gone on here," Nathan said. "It's something I'm not worried about, but I want to take care of it now, so it doesn't get to a point where I do worry about it." 

 

• Last Wednesday, Dr. Coco Eaton performed shoulder anthroscopy on the Twins' Boof Bonser, locating several tears in the pitcher's labrum and rotator cuff.  According to the Twins official press release, the partial tears were repaired right away and the tedious process of healing and rehabilitating begin.  At the conclusion of the 2008 season, Bonser says he experienced shoulder discomfort and had an MRI taken.  In the event of a SLAP tear - the superior aspect of the labrum is torn from anterior to posterior - an MRI usually reveals the damage and, as Kelly Thesier reported on Twinsbaseball.com, Bonser's procedure showed no damage.  In the Twins' opinion, it was a case of tendinitis and kept Bonser from throwing for several months.  Even if there was non-significant damage to the labrum but some tear revealed in the MRI, the best advice would have been prescribing anti-flammatory medication and withholding Bonser from any throwing activities according to Will Carroll's book "Saving the Pitcher: A Revolutionary Analysis of Pitching Injuries and How to Prevent Them".  Carroll stresses that it is imperative that the pitcher refrains from throwing as to not exacerbate even the slightest tear if following the rest-and-rehabilitate regiment.  Unfortunately for Bonser, he began to throw again in early January then again when pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers in February, following a cortisone shot to alleviate the pain.  There may have been a tear existing but was never shown on the MRI that was further damaged upon his return to the mound in February resulting in the partially torn labrum (which the anthroscopy found).  Though the surgical procedure of repairing the torn labrum/rotator cuff are becoming more common, reports Carroll, most often pitchers that return from the surgery lose significant velocity and wind up being consistent injury-risks of re-aggravating the labrum. 

 

• Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net has assumed the responsibilities of Twins Content Editor at the newly re-lauched BaseballDigest.com, yet another source for Twins news, analysis and information.  Along with Stohs, Nick Nelson (N&N), Josh Johnson (Josh's Thoughts), John Meyer (Twins MVB) and myself will assist him in providing commentary throughout the 2009 season.  I have added the first post discussing the Twins starting rotation for 2009. 

 

 

The Royals Got Better; The Twins Stay The Same

Outside of Hammond Stadium, the biggest news regarding the Twins was the Royals' signing of power-arm reliever Juan Cruz.  This news is significant for reasons twofold: 1) It signifies the disinterest in securing a replacement arm for Boof Bonser of elite caliber in the bullpen (and thereby revealing the front office's confidence is the quality of arms existing) and 2) it makes an AL Central competitor that much better.

 

There is much to like about Cruz: his 12.37 strikeouts per 9 innings was the second-highest in baseball (behind only Tampa's Grant Balfour) and his 66.0% contact rate was the second-lowest in baseball (behind only Phildelphia's Brad Lidge).  He did not even have to bend pitches around the strike zone, even when throwing within the zone, he still led the league with the lowest contact rate (73%).  It would be there and hitters would miss.  Wielding his 94-mph fastball and his 80-mph slider, Cruz just made bats miss, plain and simple.  Like the deserts miss the rain.  But it isn't as if Cruz doesn't come without his warts.  Cruz hits the strike zone as often as tails appears on a coin-flip (just about half) which has caused a large number of free passes to be handed out (5.40 per 9 innings in 2008 to be precise).  And adding baserunners in close-and-late situations is as close to throwing fuel on the fire as one can get. 

 

It took a two-year commitment of $2.25 M in 2009 and $3.25 M in 2010 ($5.5 million total) and the Royals hold a third-year option for $4 M in 2011 with a $500,000 buyout - if the team should so choose to cut ties- to win Cruz.  Even with all of the ballyhoo surrendering a first-round pick on the Type A free agent Cruz, the Royals only have to forfeit their second round (55th overall) draft choice. The cost necessary to gain Cruz was extremely reasonable and within the Twins' fiscally conservative budget. 

 

The Royals have confounded baseball analysts all offseason, making those of us that review these sorts of things in-depth wonder "Are they or aren't they competitors?"  After all, the Royals have made curious maneuvers in the past few months: they traded solid bullpen arm in Leo Nunez to the Florida Marlins for power-only first baseman Mike Jacobs when they seemed to have viable in-house candidates in Billy Butler, Kila Ka'aihue and Ryan Shealy; they announced their intentions to reposition outfielder Mark Teahen to second base, a move I likened to doing the same with Michael Cuddyer; they committed $8-million to reliever Kyle Farnsworth who doesn't seem to have the slightest as to where is ball is heading when he released it but he could be fairly certain it was usually headed in the direction of the outfield bleachers (2.24 HR/Game in 2008).  In the business world, they call these transactions "crack-crazy".

 

Of course, while most of us scoffed at these trades, repositioning and free agent signings, the Royals had quietly moved forward with a quality one-two combination of starters in Gil Meche (14-11, 210 innings, 3.61 FIP) and Zack Greinke (13-10, 202 innings, 3.56 FIP) coupled with the moderately successful Kyle Davies (who in the last month of 2008 went 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA and a 24-to-7 strikeouts-to-walks ratio).  The bullpen has Joakim Soria at the back-end, battling only Joe Nathan for closer supremacy in the Central (that torch will be passed sooner than you think).  These are four pieces of concrete foundation.   Situating hard-throwing Farnsworth and now Juan Cruz to usher the game from the starting rotation to the "Mexecutioner" to close them out has greatly increased the Royals odds of protecting any lead.  In spite of their head-scratching transactions this offseason, the Royals are certifiable contenders in 2009 and the addition of Juan Cruz has just amplified their bid for the Central.