Thursday, December 18, 2008

Friday Flotsam (12.19.08)

  • Among the recent minor league free agent signings, La Velle notes that the Twins have resigned Joe Gaetti.  After being drafted by Colorado and putting up solid numbers in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Sally League, hitting .257/.353/.457 with 16 home runs.  The following season, in 2004, he was moved to the California League, a league that swings to the opposite extreme of the Sally League.   While there, the 22 year old Gaetti hit .332/.418/.602 with 21 home runs.  Gaetti continued to climb the ranks, but as a corner outfielder/designated hitter type in the Rockies organization, G-Man Junior was block by two All Star candidates in Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday.  Prior to the 2008 season, Oakland signed him as a minor league free agent and was sent to AA.  After 24 games for Midland, the A's sent Gaetti to Sacramento where he homered in his first at-bat with the River Cats, reaffirming his power potential.  Oakland, like Colorado, had a glutton of corner outfield types in Chris Denorfia and Matt Murton in AAA with Ryan SweeneyTravis Buck and Jack Cust in the bigs. The Twins acquired Gaetti from the Oakland organization - a team that knows a thing or two about power and patience - in August 2008 for future considerations and assigned him to AA New Britain where he, like in Sacramento his first at-bat, homered in his first at-bat then proceeded to tear his Achilles rounding the bases.   Gaetti has proven that he can hit minor league pitching to the point where he deserves a roster spot on a team.  Especially left-handed pitching.  In 419 career minor league at-bats against southpaws, Gaetti had hit .315/.401/.556.   By comparison, Randy Ruiz has hit .300/.375/.537 in 536 lifetime minor league at-bats versus lefties.  While I was initially disappointed that the Twins failed to secure Ruiz, who was signed by the Blue Jays, they may have kept a more useful component in that Gaetti has shown that he can play a serviceable part in the outfield and not be limited to a designated hitter.  Frankly, the Twins, like the Rockies and A's, have an overabundance of corner outfielders, but keeping Gaetti around will give the Twins a player that might be called upon if another right-handed power bat is needed.  Also, he does a mean impression of his dad.

 

  • There are times when I really like Fox Sports' Dayn Perry.  His book "Winner: How Good Baseball Teams Become Great Ones" is a must read and his articles in "Baseball Between the Numbers" by Baseball Prospectus is equally as insightful HOWEVER, his latest column on FoxSports.com falls far short of the bar set by the previous high-quality analysis and, frankly, lackadaisical reporting.  His article outlines several non-events that transpired during the Winter Meetings and their implications, such as the Padres not moving Jake Peavy and the Yankees not upgrading their offense.  His last paragraph is poignantly directed at our hometown organization entitled "Twins Still Don't Have A Third Baseman".  Perry notes that the Twins showed interest in Adrian Beltre ($12 million in 2009 plus a recent no-trade clause adding the amount necessary to acquire and the Mariners request of Kevin Slowey in return), Kevin Kouzmanoff (Gardy no likey the no defense), Jorge Cantu (see Kouzmanoff) and Ty Wigginton (see Cantu) then punctuated the necessity to make a move by saying "the Twins ranked 11th in the American League in OPS and this was the primary reasons they missed out on the postseason".  The conclusion Perry draws is that the Twins are putting themselves in a detrimental position by not obtaining another third baseman.  Yes, between opening day and June 14th when Mike Lamb was the starting third baseman and he hit a horrid .225/.264/.304 (.568 OPS) in 212 plate appearances, the Twins suffered.  Following June 14th, Ron Gardenhire opted to use a platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher who in 484 plate appearances after the transition combined to hit .294/.346/.436 (.782 OPS).  What Perry fails to mention when he quickly dismisses Buscher as not the long-term solution (omitting Harris altogether) and deemed Beltre's "thump and stellar defense" as the logical solution to the third base woes was that Beltre's 2008 .783 OPS was no better than the Twins duo.  From a strictly operational vantage point, why would a mid-market team bother trading (yet again) a young, up-and-coming pitcher for the one-year loan of a third baseman that has similar productions of a low-cost tandem that stands to make $11 million less?   

 

  • Speaking of overpriced third basemen, Joe Christensen recently took a closer inspection at Ty Wigginton's numbers while with the Astros in 2008. What has been highlighted the most when dissecting his undoubtedly inflated final line of .285/.350/.526 with 23 home runs was that at home in Minute Maid Park, a hitting haven, he hit .343/.390/.691 with 15 home runs and 58 RBIs.  In addition to this factor skewing his overall statistics, it should be noted that Wigginton's ridiculous performance in August also pushed those numbers higher than they will be in 2009.  In 109 plate appearances in August, Wigginton hit an unworldly .379/.394/.806 with 12 home runs and 26 RBIs.  To summarize, more than half of his home runs and RBIs occurred in one month.  This, coupled with the numbers procured at the offensive generator in Houston, indicates that Wigginton's numbers will decline in 2009.  The Astros recognized this and decided that Wigginton was not worth the near $6 million a year he will command.  Instead, the franchise will use the switch hitting Geoff Blum and the right-handed Aaron Boone to field a low wage platoon at third.  Hopefully the Twins will also reach this conclusion. 

 

  • Finally, Seth Stohs' 2008 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - a book that was reviewed in this space in November - now has two versions for sale, a paperback and a paperless for those eco-friendly readers.  The PDF version costs $8 - saving you $3 dollars (a great value for the college students out there on a tight budget) - and contains the same information on the entire Twins farm system in the paperback edition without those scary papercuts to worry about.  

 

 
 
 

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Over The Baggy's Twins Draft Review 2008

With the changing of the General Manager's from Ryan to Smith and Mike Radcliff handing off the draft day responsibilities to former crosschecker Deron Johnson, it is evident that the Twins sustained the philosophy behind their approach to the draft.  The organization focused on upside and projectability. 
 
As you will see in the instance of Shooter Hunt, the team selected a pitcher that had plus-stuff but had rough edges in the control department.  Confident they had the necessary tools in place to teach Hunt control, they made him a first round (supplement) pick.  In similar fashion, the Twins chose shortstop Tyler Ladendorf in the second round.  Ladendorf had produced well in high school and junior college but some scouts believed his weight distribution presented a problem in his hitting approach.  The Twins however, felt they had the instructors on staff to fix this.     
 
The scouting staff would also uncover several players that were overlooked because of their competition.  Both the ninth (Gonzales) and tenth (Bigley) round selections were cultivated out of league's that were undervalued.  But as complete of coverage as the team's scouting department seemed to display, ranging from coast-to-coast, there was a large amount of the players that were either in college near the Midwest or had played in the local Northwoods League,making one wonder what exactly is the travel budget for the scouts?
 
At the conclusion of their first professional season, you will find that the 2008 draft team were successful in signing players up and down the board that will ensure that the farm system remains an envy of Major League Baseball.   
 
Round.Pick | Player | Signing Bonus | Age | Position 
 
R37.1116 | Javier Ogo-Brown | NA | 21 years old | INF
 
The Twins selected Ogo-Brown out of Grossmont Junior College and was assigned to the Gulf Coast League affiliate.  This son of Guam had a muddling introduction to professional baseball as he started his career 11-for-47 (.234) with no extra base hits and a 6/14 BB/K ratio.  He carries 175 pounds on his six foot frame so there is room for him to grow physically. This offseason Ogo-Brown will take his development over to Australia where he will play for West Torrens baseball club in the South Australian Baseball League - the Twins have several players participating within this league including catchers Danny Rohlfing and Fred Hanvi as well as Korean imports Hyoeng-Rok Choi and Hyung-wook Choi
 
R30.906 | Mike Tonkin | $230K | 18 years old | RHRP
 
The large statured Tonkin (6-foot-7, 215) from Palmdale, CA is a brother-in-law of Jason Kubel and was sent to the GCL Twins for his inaugural minor league season.  The Twins threw $230,000 at Tonkin as a signing bonus, a hefty sum for a 30th round pick, because he was already clocked at low-90s in high school.  The organization likes his projectability to say the least.  In his first professional season, pitching mostly in relief, Tonkin worked 11 innings and struck out 8 while walking 3.  His 3.27 ERA was 15% better than the league average but with such a small sample size it is impossible to project Tonkin's true abilities. 
 
R28.846 | Nate Hanson | $25K | 21 years old | 3B

Hanson caught attention by leading the 2007 Northwoods League with a .363 average and obtaining that league's All Star game MVP while playing for the Mankato Moon Dogs and he followed this up with a good collegiate season with the University of Minnesota (.966).  Given a $25,000 signing bonus (just $205,000 less than the Tonkin drafted a round after him), the 21-year-old Hanson was sent to Elizabethton where he opened up the first month of the season strong, hitting .308/.550/.615 in his first 15 at-bats but a July swoon (.129/.182/.161 in 31 at-bats) tanked his overall numbers.  Because he is a third baseman that has shown power, the Twins will give him time to learn on the job.
 
R26.786 | Adam Severino | NA| 21 years old | OF
 
This juco transfer was given a substantial amount of playing time in the University of Miami's outfield in 2008 and hit .325/.433/.469 in 160 at-bats.  Somewhat undersized (5-foot-11, 200), the Chicago White Sox initially attempted to draft the left-handed hitting Severino in 2006.  In 123 plate appearances with Elizabethton, Severino exercised very good plate discipline (18 walks, .366 OBP) but didn't supply power. 

 
R21.636 | Steve Blevins | NA | 21 years old | RHRP

Blevins had a rough 2007 while at the University of Cincinnati.  The Bearcats finishes 10-16 and Blevins was tied for the most losses in the Big East Conference with seven.  Following the NCAA season, the 6-foot-2 left-handed Blevins transferred to Marshall in West Virginia, a school that had gone 5-18 the previous year.  The idea was that the competition was much stronger in Conference USA which contained powerhouses like Rice, Houston and Tulane.  Blevins, for his part, went 9-3 in 14 starts with a 4.41 ERA and 78/31 K/BB ratio in 98 innings pitched while leading the conference in complete games (3).  The Twins noticed and drafted him in the 21st round and sent him to the Gulf Coast League to work out of the bullpen.  Blevin threw nine total innings in Florida before being promoted to the Appalachian League.  In 22.2 innings in relief, Blevins would accumulate an ERA of over 6 but his fielding independent number of 4.68 indicates that he is much better that the ERA would suggest. 
 
R19.576 | Bruce Pugh | NA | 19 years old | RHRP
 
The 6-foot-3, 180 pound Pugh was directed to the Gulf Coast League for his minor league introduction which resulted in two extremely different months.   In June, Pugh pitched 14 innings and struck out 24% of batters faced and walked just 8% while inducing groundballs 57% of the time.  The following month, Pugh struck out 20% but walked 20% as well and only got 33% of batters to hit into groundballs.  There is no need to read too far into this, just a curiosity. 
 
R17.516 | Blake Martin | NA | 22 years old | LHRP
 
A product of the LSU baseball system, Martin emerged as a bona fide prospect after a 2007 stint in the Northwoods League.  Following his 39 innings and 32 strikeouts, Baseball America ranked him the 9th overall player in the league noting that he had a 90+ fastball with loose arm action.  John Manuel noted in a BA chat that he believed Martin was headed for a single-digit draft pick.  After starting the year in Elizabethton, Martin was quickly moved to the more age-appropriate Midwest League.  While with Beloit Martin threw 28.1 innings and struck out 40 while walking just 13.  Martin will turn 23 in the middle of next season so the Twins may want to expedite his development and to see if the numbers sustain in AA.
 
R14.426 | Blayne Weller | NA | 18 years old | RHRP

The high school draft choice out of Key West, FL, Weller was originally sent to the GCL Twins where he pitched just one inning of one game before moving back to the Instructional League.  La Velle E Neal reported that the Twins where extremely satisfied with Weller's progress.  Weller is a man-child (listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds) and will probably see innings in rookie ball to open 2009. 
 
R13.396 | Michael Harrington | NA | 22 years old | OF
 
Harrington displayed tons of power in his final year at College of Charleston, slamming 26 home runs and leading the Southern Conference in that category.  He continued this surge in Elizabethon hitting nine more home runs while his slugging percentage (.452) was 16% better than the league average.  Because Harrington is over two years older than most of his competition in the Appalachian League he may have been overpowering the raw pitchers. 
 
R12.366 | Kyle Carr | $50K | 21 years old | LHRP
 
Another University of Minnesota alum, the Twins originally attempted to obtain Carr during the 2005 draft when graduated from Linton, North Dakota as a multisport athletic going to state in both football and basketball.  Instead the 6-foot-5 lefty opted take his skillset to college.  During his sophomore season Carr was one named Second Team Big Ten Reliever closing games for the Gophers. The lefty faced a difficult season in his final year in the Big Ten transitioning to a starter, finishing 2-7 in 13 starts with a 1.71 WHIP.  The Twins signed Carr with a $50,000 bonus and he was sent to the Gulf Coast League.  After three appearance, Carr was sent to Elizabethton where he made 11 relief appearances, putting up a 10.80 Runs Allowed Average in 15 innings of work.  He possesses a 90-mph plus fastball that projects well. 
 
 
R11.336 | Dominic De La Osa  | NA | 22 years old | 2B
 
De La Osa played on a very solid Vanderbilt teams that contained Tampa Bay's elite pitching prospect David Price, who was the #1 overall draft pick in 2007, and Pedro Alvarez in 2008, who was this draft's #2 overall pick by Pittsburgh.  After a monster 2007 season at Vandy in which De La Osa hit .378/.452/.727 with 43 extra base hits in 249 at bats, the Detroit Tigers select him in the 10th round of the 2007 draft offering him $300,000.  De La Osa declined, stating that he wanted to return one more season in efforts to get to Omaha for the College World Series. PGCrosschecker.com rated De La Osa as the team's Best Athlete and Best Base Runner on the team.  The Commodores fell short of a trip to Nebraska and De La Osa's stock declined somewhat when in the same number of at bats in 2008, he hit .297/.410/.506 with 24 extra base hits.  Undervalued during the draft, sliding to the Twins in the 11th round of the 2008 draft, the organization had him report to Elizabethton.  While his overall numbers don't appear sturdy, he sandwich two good months of hitting .899 and .815 OPS with a horrid month of July hitting just .715.  Even with the absence of power (.394 slugging) De La Osa finished with very good on-base percentage (.384).  Once the power fully develops, De La Osa has the potential to be a steal for the Twins. 
 
R10.306 | Evan Bigley  | $75K | 21 years old | OF
 
Bigley comes from baseball pedigree as his older brother, Dennis, paved the way for the Bigley boys by getting drafted by the Blue Jays in the 22nd round of the 2003 draft.  The younger Bigley shot onto the scene along with his Independent alma mater, Dallas Baptist, who defeated Rice twice.  Refining his talents in the Northwoods League for the La Crosse Loggers, Bigley powered the Patriots his senior season with a .586 slugging percentage, catching the Twins' attention.  The organization assigned him to Elizabethon and he continued to swat, hitting 14 home runs and slugging .587 - significantly better than the league average of .387.  Bigley's power will carry him through the next few levels at which point he will have to develop better plate discipline in order to advance further. 

R09.276 | Mike Gonzales | $85K | 20 years old | 1B
 
Playing for Diablo Valley Junior College, Gonzales ripped through the league's pitching and wound up being named the league's best player.  The 6-foot-6 Gonzales smashed 18 home runs and hit .377 to earn the honors and a ninth round draft selection from the Twins.  With a solid 245 pounds on the big frame, Gonzales had a decent introductory season in the Gulf Coast League.  Though overshadowed by the first round draft pick Aaron Hicks who grabbed headlines on the GCL Twins, Gonzales quietly hit .331/.387/.489, well above the GCL average of .253/.331/.356.

R08.246 | Jeff Lanning  | $105K | 21 years old | C
 
After transferring from the University of Nebraska to the University of New Orleans, the Ankeny, Iowa native Lanning emerged as a legitimate offensive catcher leading the Privateers with 15 home runs and slugging .627.  The Twins secured Lanning in the eighth round with a $105,000 signing bonus and moved him to Elizabethton, where he competed with 2007's second round draft choice, Danny Rams, behind the plate.  Ultimately, Rams would catch more games but Lanning would posted better offensive numbers (.786 OPS to .724 OPS).  Defensively, Lanning has a below-average arm, allowing 13 of 16 (18.7% CS) potential base stealers to acquire the base, but he appears to be a better backstop allowing just 2 passed balls to Rams's 11. 
 
R07.216 | Dan Osterbrock  | $121K | 21 years old | LHSP
 
Osterbrock, who signed for $121,000, drew plenty of attention from Twins fans by throwing a Kevin Slowey-like 104/8 K/BB rate in just 75 innings to earn the title of Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year.  What is surprising is that his first-year numbers far exceed those of his collegiate numbers that he had while pitching at the University of Cincinnati.  In 193.1 innings the previous two seasons with the Bearcats, Osterbrock struck out 156.  One would like to assume that the Appalachian League is better competition than the Big East, but who knows.  Whether instructors in the Twins organization insisted on doing something different is unbeknowst to me.  A soft tosser, Osterbrock shows demonstrates outstanding command and will most likely move up to Beloit to see if his craftiness will work on the next level of hitters in 2009. 

R06.186 | BJ Hermsen| $650K | 19 years old | RHP
 
After being drafted in June, it took West Delware (Manchester, IA) High School graduate and the Twins until August to finally hammer out a workable contract.  The two landed on $650,000 as a signing bonus and for good reason.  The 6=foot-6, 230 pound Hermsen who had been clocked in the low-90s was interested in attending Oregon State.  OSU's Baseball coach Pat Casey was quoted as saying that Hermsen was "the only right-handed pitcher we that [OSU] ever recruited," continuing, "He's ranked as one of the top pitchers in the country."  Because of the late signing, Hermsen was sent to the Instructional League where Twins officials lauded his work habits and makeup.  The 2009 season will be his debut. 
 
R05.156 | Nick Romero | $179K | 20 years old | INF
 
The switch-hitting Romero was originally drafted by the Royals in the 40th round of the 2006 draft but he decided to go to San Deigo State University and play for Tony Gwynn instead.  Like Bigley, Romero played with the La Crosse Loggers in the Northwoods League, and like Bigley, Romero developed at the plate.  Over the course of the next three seasons, Romero progressed, culminating in his junior year by hitting .335/.418/.544 and leading the team with 12 home runs.  The Twins signed Romero for $179,000 and assigned him to Elizabethton where he hit .274/.338/.442 with 7 home runs in 197 at bats. 

 

R04.126 | Danny Ortiz | $253K | 18 years old | OF
 
Small in size (5-foot-11, 166 pounds), scouts have noted that Ortiz is one of the best pure hitters to come out of Puerto Rico in several years, claiming that he has an above average arm and can field all three outfield positions.  Because of that, it took $253,000 to secure the youngster.  In 48 games for the GCL Twins Ortiz hit .274/.328/.419 with 18 extra base hits and a 11/30 BB/K ratio.  Ortiz showed holes in his swing against left-handed pitching (.231/.286/.256 in 39 at bats) that will have to be repaired before he begins ascending to higher levels.  Thankfully, at 18, he has nothing but time.

R03.96 | Bobby Lanigan | $417K | 21 years old | RHSP
 
Lanigan, a Stanton Island native, accepted a $417,000 signing bonus making him the first Adelphi University player to be drafted and signed in 15 years.  Although Lanigan only went 4-4 his final seasons with the Panthers, he struck out 87 and walked just 16 in 79 innings and owns the school's all-time strikeout record (232).  In Baseball America's Draft Preview, they ranked Lanigan the 129th best prospect - probably because of playing at a Division II school - but had a 93-mph fastball and an above-average slider that attracted the Twins.  Reporting to Elizabethon, the 6-foot-4 Lanigan had a good season, pitching 74.1 innings with a 6-5 record and a 2.78 ERA combined with a 65/9 K/BB.  In August Lanigan threw 37 innings and posted a 30/1 K/BB ratio and a 2.28 FIP.  Scouts were very impressed with Lanigan's slider, deeming it the Best Slider in the organization according to Baseball America. 
 
R02.66 | Tyler Ladendorf  | $673K | 20 years old | SS
 
A former 34th round selection twice-over by the Yankees and Giants in 2006 and 2007, Ladendorf decided to forgo what were both high offers for the draft slot to attend and remain at Howard College in Big Springs, Texas.  Ladendorf was committed to attending the University of Oklahoma when his eligibility at the Texas JuCo expired but the Twins, using their 66th pick overall, convinced the 6-foot-1 Ladendorf to sign for $673,000 and assigned him to the GCL Twins.  Ladendorf's initial season was far from the expected results of a second-round draft choice: in 147 at bats, he hit just .204/.308/.293.  Ladendorf's numbers were the dividends of being stymied by right-handed pitching, hitting only .193/.295/.277 in 119 at bats.  The word is that the Twins are attempting to reconstruct Ladendorf's hitting style, one that prior to the draft was considered unorthodox because his weight was not distributed on his back foot evenly and because of his size, scouts believe that Ladendorf will eventually be forced out of the shortstop position. 

R01.31 | Shooter Hunt | 21 years old | $1.08 M | RHSP
 
Initially thought to be a top ten pick in the 2008 draft, Tulane's Shooter Hunt slid all the way to the Twins at the 31st pick overall.  According to Baseball America, scouts noted that Hunt often tried to "nibble" at corners of the plate and "pitched to contact" rather than attacking opposing batters.  Regardless of the method, the results were solid for Hunt who limited opponents to a .177 batting average and struck out 12 batters per game.  As the draft neared, his stock dropped because of his employment of only two pitches (92-94 mph fastball and a hammer curve) and the amount necessary to retire batters.  Still, it would be the Twins - an organization that is notorious for grooming control pitchers - that would land Hunt with a $1.08 million signing bonus.  The Twins would send Hunt to Elizabethton where Hunt would throw 19 dominating innings, striking out 34, walking six and allowing only surrendering three hits and one earned run.  Unchallenged at Rookie ball, the Twins moved him to Beloit where his control issues surfaced.  Though Hunt was essentially unhittable (.228), Hunt walked 27 in 32 innings in the Midwest League.  The Twins and Hunt are trying to work on his balance point and integrate the use of a changeup more frequently (one that was described as a "plus" in bullpen sessions).  Consistency is the name of the game for Hunt who should remain in Beloit to start the 2009 season to prove that he can throw his 94-mph fastball for a strike. 
 
R01.27 | Carlos Gutierrez | $1.29 M | 21 years old | RHSP
 
Following a solid career as a closer at the University of Miami, Gutierrez was the first pitcher taken by the Twins in the 2008 draft.  Gutierrez signed for a bonus of $1.29 million and reported to Fort Myers where he was initiated into professional baseball at the high-A level - the most advanced spotting within the organization among his draft class.  Positioned within the bullpen of the Florida State League representative, Gutierrez worked 25.2 innings with a 19/7 K/BB ratio.  In a league that is for players old then that of Gutierrez, he did not allowing a home run while holding a 2.50 Runs Allowed Average.  Though the sample size is minuscule, Gutierrez handled right-handed opponents significantly better than that of the left-handed counterparts (.160 vs RHB/.326 vs LHB).  Baseball America reports that Gutierrez has a Major League-ready sinking fastball that was elected as the best within the farm system, however, the Twins will attempt to convert him to a start in 2009 so he can work on his secondary pitches and accumulate more innings. 

R01.14 | Aaron Hicks | $1.78 M | 18 years old | OF
 
In a college-oriented draft plan devised by the Twins, the organization opened by selecting a high school player with five or possibly even six tools.  Hicks, who also pitched in high school, had a 93-mph fastball but it was his bat and fielding abilities that the Twins coveted.  The Twins allocated $1.7 million in signing their top selection and sent him to Elizabethton.  In 173 at bats, Hicks had 18 extra base hits and batted .318/.409/.491 a line slightly better than that of the previous year's first round pick, Ben Revere, who hit .325/.388/.461 in 191 at bats.  At 6-foot-2 and a slim 170 pounds, the scouting report believes Hicks will fill out that height as he matures adding power to a repertoire that already has patience (14% BB%).  With the conclusion of his first professional season under his belt, and a successful one at that, Baseball America ranked Hicks as the number one prospect within the Twins system and awarded him the titles of "Best Athlete", "Best Strike Zone Discipline", "Best Defensive Arm" and "Best Outfield Arm".  Hicks will receive a full season of plate appearance in 2009 at Beloit to continue his development - one that is seen as two years away from gracing Target Field. 

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Odds. Ends. (12.11)

 
  • UPDATE #1 12/12.  Jones v. Morlan: After asking a Twins official what the logic was in selected Jones over Morlan, who was still on the board when the Twins drafted, I was told that the Twins scouting staff is still very high on Morlan however the impression is that Jones has the opportunity to make the club out of spring training whereas Morlan may need a few more innings in the minor leagues.  Le Valle reaffirmed this by saying Terry Ryan gave Jones a high recommendation.  Knowing that Ryan was the person that gave the recommendation validates the decision in my mind.  "He's got a lot of pitchability and strikeability,'' said Mike Radcliff, the Twins' vice president of player personnel. "He's always been in a starting role. The key will be if he's able to apply his pitches and tools to being a reliever.''
  • UPDATE #2 12/12. Kouz.  It sounds as if the Twins are not even considering a trade for Kouzmanoff and he is off their targeting list.  The decision stems from Ron Gardenhire's displeasure in Kouzmanoff's defense.   Managerial and scouting wisdom notwithstanding, Kouzmanoff is coming off a season in which he has made some progress in the fielding department.  In over 200 additional innings in 2008 versus 2007, Kouzmanoff committed 11 fewer errors plus started 22 more doubleplays.  Furthermore, John Dewan's Fielding Bible reaffirms his improvement, grading his bunt-fielding capabilities a "B" in 2007 and an "A-" in 2008 and highlighting that his ability to make plays ranging to his right - towards the line - has improved from a -3 plays in 2007 to a +8 in 2008.  To write him off as a non-entity seems absurd. 
  • A Punto Offer?  It sounds like the Twins are ready to offer Nick Punto a contract worth 2-years, $8-million to keep him as the starting shortstop forgoing any need to fill the role through a trade opportunity.  "We would like to re-sign him,'' Bill Smith said. "He has been a good player for us. Gardy loves the energy and enthusiasm he brings to the lineup and clubhouse on a daily basis.''  Punto's retention is contingent on what the Phillies may be offering. 
  • The shortstop market quickly dried up for the Twins as free agent Edgar Renteria signed with the Giants for a two-year, $18.5 million dollar deal and Rafael Furcal priced himself out of the Twins' market by turning down a four-year, $37 million dollar deal with Oakland.  ESPN's Keith Law viewed the Renteria signing as a solid one, noting Renteria's .299/.340/.493 batting line the last two months of the season.   
  •  Trades for shortstops J.J. Hardy, Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar never finalized which indicates that the Twins greatly value their starting pitchers (Slowey, Blackburn, Baker) whose names have been associated to most rumors.  
  • Interestingly enough, the Padres accepted a AAA reliever, Mark Worrell, who has a funky delivery but 90-mph stuff and an attitude to boot, for shortstop Khalil Greene.  Greene had a terrible year in which he hit .213/.260/.339 in 2008.  Naturally, people will reference this trade wondering why the Twins didn't offer a similar package.  Most telling is that Greene is simply an out-machine.  His career on-base total is .304 - yes, he does have power for a shortstop but his glovework has declined since 2006.  Last year Greene was a -4 according to the Fielding Bible. by comparison, Nick Punto was a +4.  
  • The 30 year old Punto hit .284/.344/.382 in 338 at bats in 2008, which was better than your league average shortstop who hit .266/.319/.375, however the last time Punto was given a starting job he slugged .271 in 2007, the lowest among any starter.   
  • Kubel the Kub? Though the Twins (finally) realize what they have, it sounds like the Cubs have been trying to formulate a deal that would land them Jason Kubel, requesting him in a package for Mark DeRosa, to gain a left-handed power bat. 
  • Rule 5 Results.  The Twins selected Jason Jones from the Yankees.  Jones, who spent last season split between AA and AAA, was drafted by the Yankees in the 4th round of the 2004 draft.  After a solid first season in professional baseball, Jones repeated high-A and the AA.  Last season he threw 159.3 innings with a 102/50 K/BB ratio and a 3.78 Runs Allowed Average.  But the fact is that at 25 years old, Jones was old for the AA level.  He appears to be a four-pitch pitcher that throws his fastball in the high-80s.  Jones joins an organizations that is full of like-styped pitchers and will most likely be returned to the Yankees at the end of the spring.  Surprisingly avoiding Eduardo Morlan a one-time Twins prospect but was involved in the Young-for-Garza trade.  Now traded by the Twins and unsecured by the Rays, there must be something about Morlan's makeup that does not merit keeping him. 

 

 


Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Odds. Ends (12.09.09)

Minnesota Twins
 
  • Tejada the Twin?  An insider source told me that the Twins and Astros have the preliminary deal in place that would bring Miguel Tejada back to the American League.  It is unclear as to what the Astros have coming to them for the former MVP.  Phil Rogers reported earlier that the two teams were in talks for Tejada and Ty Wigginton. Obviously Tejada stands a pretty good chance of reaching the Type A free agent status post-2009 and this would secure the Twins two additional draft picks.  Assuming that both teams are well aware of this, it would stand to reason that there could be three players moving from the Twins.

 

  • If it is just the shortstop it appears that the Twins will owe Tejada $13 million for the 2009 season.  This isn't an issue like it had been in the past.  Going into 2008, the Twins reduced their payroll by 20%.  Twins president Dave St. Peter announced that "We have finalized the budget for 2009, and we believe that the budget allows us some flexibility to improve our baseball team."  Yes, the Twins balked at the decision to sign 35 year old Casey Blake to a contract that exceeds two seasons which makes a trade for Tejada that much more appealing simply that he is only available for one season.  The Twins were rumored to have offered Blake a two-year, $14 million dollar deal that he turned down.  Deciding to forgo signing Blake to a three-year was the right thing to do. 
 
  • There are some problems with Tejada, however:
    • Tejada is coming off his first year with the Astros, disappointing to many.  Houston Chronicle's Richard Justice reports that towards the end of the season Tejada looked "old and tired both at the plate and in the field".  From August 1st on, the 34 year old Tejada hit .284/.303/.395 in 222 plate appearances.  A strong sign of regression is wearing down at the end of the year.
    • If you consider OPS+ as a gauge for the player-curve, you will notice that Tejada's peaked at 30 years old (138) then took a downward turn after that season: 128 at 31, 126 at 32, 109 at 33 and 92 at 34. 
    • Not known to strike out that much, Tejada witnessed his walk rate move south with him.  While with the Orioles in 2007 Tejada walked 7.2% of his plate appearances.  In Houston Tejada walked just 3.6% of the time.  What gives?  According to Fangraphs.com, Tejada had a huge spike in the number of out-of-zone pitches he was swinging at.  Between the two seasons he increased his chase rate 6%.  Judging from his pitch type analysis, Tejada was receiving nearly 5% more fastballs in 2008 than he had in 2007.  The amount of curves thrown to him dropped as well.  This is a possible indication that the league's scouts no longer feel that Tejada can catch up to a fastball.  What's more is that he is no longer pulling the ball with as much enthusiasm as he did several years ago.  In his 2002 MVP year, he turned on the pitch nearly 50% of the time.  When he did so his average was .380.  This past season he pulled the ball only 35% of the time resulting in a .350 average on the balls in play. 
 
  • No Washburn.  Hopefully the Twins are satisfied with their starting rotation moving into 2009.  According to Jim Street, an MLB.com reporter, the Mariners are actively shopping Wisconsin native Jarrod Washburn fortunately "The Twins have not been mentioned as one of the teams that have inquired about Washburn -- Minnesota is more focused on third baseman Adrian Beltre -- but the Brewers are believed to have some interest."
 
  • Sayonara.  One internal left-handed option the Twins could have had to replace Dennys Reyes is moving east.  Far east.    The Tokyo Yakult Swallows have acquired 27 year old Ricky Barrett.  Barrett put together a solid 2008, working 70 innings and striking out 81 while walking 38.  The Twins drafted Barrett in 2002 with there seventh round selection and rose through the system but stalled out in AAA since 2006. In total, Barrett had a very good 441 strikeouts in 413 innings pitched.  

  

  • Erickson wants a comeback.  No, not Roger.  Scott.  Seriously.  Apparently Erickson, 40, has contacted the Twins front office seeking the possibility of partaking in spring training.  "He wants to come back," Twins GM Bill Smith reportedly commented, "I told him to go get a job in winter ball and let's see what you can do."  Erickson is not currently on any winter league roster so it appears that the Twins won't have to awkwardly tell him that he is not invited.  In 2006 the Yankees gave Erickson 11.1 innings and he responded with 7 walks and two strikeouts.  The last time Erickson resurfaced was during a Twins broadcast in 2008 which he and his lovely wife, Lisa Guerrero, toured the country in efforts to promote a movie the duo financed called 'A Plumm Summer'.  For the most part, the movie fell flat.  

 

  • Another Former Pitcher Note.  The Blue Jays have hired former Twins pitcher Roy Smith and made him apart of their scouting department.  Smith had a brief stint with the World Champion 1987 Twins and went 10-6 with a 3.92 ERA in 173.2 innings in 1989. 
     
Chicago White Sox
 
  • Sox Rumors.  A few days after the Reds denied the Dye-for-Bailey rumors, the Sun-Times Joe Crowley announced through a Twitter update that the Rays and the Braves are interested in Jermaine Dye.  ESPN's Jason Stark reported that the Rays have been "interested" in reacquiring Delmon Young but Dye might be a better corner outfield candidate considering Tampa Tribune's Marc Lancaster noted that a Rays official denied interested in Young.  The Rays are possibly shopping pitchers Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine, two pitchers that the White Sox would demand at least one be involved in any potential deal.
  • To Dye For?  White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams was quoted as saying ''No, we have not traded Jermaine Dye to the Cincinnati Reds or anywhere else,'' but when pressed if there was something on the horizon, Williams added ''Well, we'll just have to wait and see what the meetings -- and this is in regard to everyone on our current roster -- we'll just have to wait and see what the week brings us."  Though very consistent since coming to Chicago, Dye will be 35 next year and is due $11.5 million.
 
Cleveland Indians
 
  • Indians Signing Wood? Now that the Mets and Francisco Rodriguez have made it official, it stands to reason that the second tier free agent closers will begin to sign accordingly.  The Indians supposedly have the constructs of a deal for free agent closer Kerry Wood.  The Indians GM, Mark Shapiro, told the Plain Dealer early in the morning Tuesday that "We are meeting with the agents of all of the closers. Each alternative has different positives and different risks.  Every situation is unique to the guy. We don't set length of contracts by position. It's based on the guy, his history.  It's situational."   The Indians who finished at .500 after a brutal start to the season, were tanked by Joe Borowski's early season failed closings.  After the Indians finished the year 38-20 from August 1st on, it was the implementation of Jensen Lewis in the closer's role who pitched 25 innings with a 22/8 K/BB ratio and saving 13 games.   Wood, who was throwing at 94-mph, would be an upgrade depending on the length and terms of the contract but is still an injury liability. 
 
Kansas City Royals
 



Monday, December 08, 2008

Dennys Reyes: A Bargain Value.

 
 
Unsurprising, the Twins announced that Dennys Reyes has opted to become a free agent after he declined to accept arbitration from the team.  The 31 year old Reyes will now test a very unstable market.  Early rumors indicate that Reyes is in talks with the Cincinnati Reds seeking a three-year, $12 million dollar deal. 
 

 
When Terry Ryan signed Dennys Reyes to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, he did so along side other left-handed compatriots Darrell May and Gabe White.  The intention was to replace the recently traded J.C. Romero with an equally effective but inexpensive arm for the 2006 season.  Of the three Reyes had the longest major league track record, coming up as a starter with the Dodgers in 1997. 
 
This method of acquiring several players and having them compete for a position that is historically overpaid is nothing new.  Perhaps the best analytical team when it comes to roster building was the 2003 Red Sox.  In 2002 the Red Sox had the tough decision whether or not to resign first base incumbent 30 year old Brian Daubach.   Daubach had just hit .266/.348/.464 with 20 home runs and had a $2.325 million dollar contract that had just expired.  Instead of sinking the $3-million plus to retain Daubach, the front office had a better idea.  The Sox signed David Ortiz and Kevin Millar for a nominal fee and shipped a minor league pitcher to the Phillies for Jeremy Giambi.  This process gained the Red Sox Ortiz who helped power the team into a perennial contender in a brilliant maneuver. 

So on a smaller scale, the Twins decided to do the same thing with the predicament in the bullpen in 2006.  With the often hot-headed J.C. Romero headed to California in a trade for minor league infielder Alexi Casilla, the Twins were without any viable left-handed options.  The team tapped Reyes, May and White and brought them to Ft Myers for a tryout.  Of the three, only Reyes remained with the organization and accepted his placement at Rochester to open the 2006 season. 
 
"This guy's got great stuff," Commented pitching coach Rick Anderson during that spring. "It's just a matter of commanding it. We've always thought he's nasty. I watch him in the pen, and I say, 'Wow!' At 28, a lot of guys hit their prime."
 
Injuries provided Reyes with a roster spot at the end of April.  Used in less than an inning an appearance, Reyes thrived against same-sided opponents, limiting them to a .148 batting average in 96 match-ups.  Reyes would finish the season 5-0 with a 0.89 ERA and a 49/15 K/BB ratio in his 50.2 innings pitched.  His contributions helped stabilize the bullpen in the playoff-bound team.  During the season, General Manager Terry Ryan rewarded Reyes with a two-year, $2 million dollar contract good through 2008.  
 
The first year of the new contract was disappointing.  Right-handed batters crushed him in 52 plate appearances (.364 average) and Reyes was sidelined for a substantial portion of the year with injuries.  In May Reyes would complain of shoulder pain that would require an MRI.  "I've been pitching a long time (15 years professionally), and I've had a lot of different pain before," said Reyes. "But this feels different. This feels really deep.  I am really concerned, because I haven't had this kind of feeling before."  In 29.1 innings, Reyes went 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA and a pedestrian 21/21 K/BB.     
 
With concerns over the well-being of his shoulder, the Twins shortened Reyes's outings.  In 2006 Reyes was averaging 0.76 innings per appearance.  In 2008 Reyes was throwing 0.61 innings per outing.  The shorter outings meant lower pitch counts too.  This past season Reyes was his most efficient year of his career, needing just 3.49 pitches per plate appearance.  "Before I came to Spring Training, one thing I put on my mind was that I was going to try and throw less pitches, so I can be fresh for the next day," Reyes said. "I thought that would help me a lot. So every time I go out, I try to throw strikes and get it over as quick as I can."

In his walk year of his contract, the 31 year old Reyes threw 46.3 innings and posted a 2.33 ERA with a 39/15 K/BB ratio.  This combined with his 2007 performance earned Reyes a Type B free agent rating from Elias, ensuring the Twins that they would get a compensatory draft pick if Reyes is signed by another team.  In three seasons, the Twins paid Reyes $2.55 million dollars.  In return Reyes tossed 126.3 innings, possessed a 109/51 K/BB ratio and a 2.14 ERA while providing 10 win shares above bench in that duration PLUS a draft pick to supplement the farm system in the 2009 draft.