What Could Have $50 Million Bought Your Team? Part One

    Let's say you are the general manager of a baseball team whose entire organization was on Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571 flying from Mendoza, Argentina to Santiago, Chile in November of 2007.  The reason for cross-navigating South America?  The Commissioner's office has tasked your team to assist in spreading Major League Baseball throughout the Southern Hemisphere by touring your franchise to play local teams.  This is a seemingly blackmail situation since the Commissioner was kind enough to lobby on your team's behave to a state in order to get public funding for your new $500 million stadium, your owner feels obligated to accept this request.  You are ordered to have your traveling secretary assemble logistics plans.  Because your organization is notoriously thrifty, your traveling secretary cuts corners whenever possible to save money, notably flight arrangements.  While en route to Chile from Argentina, the team's 1972 twin turboprop's pilot mistakenly banks right too soon and crashed your ballplayers into the side of an Andean mountain, left forever to parish in the crisp Chilean snow caps. 

    Thankfully, because of your miserly budgeting, these players were all ambiguous and nameless "replacement players" - the personification for the Baseball Prospectus's statistic, VORP.  Not one of them would be missed. 

    The Players' Union insurance company sees it a different way. Their view is that your organization is at fault because of the secretary's frugality in procuring what is determined to be an insufficient method of travel.  The organization is forced into paying all the existing contracts upfront, ranging from the lowly Rookie ballers to the underpaid Major Leaguers.  This all but bankrupts your fiscally tight team. 

     Because Major League Baseball knows they coerced your team into the barnstorming tour and do not want any more negative attention, the league provides the team's owner with $50 million dollars to shop for enough free agents to field a baseball team thus keeping the franchise alive until the current owner can find a buyer.  Looking to recoup some money in this tragedy, the owner tells you that you will field a team in 2008 and to begin scouring the open market using your $50 million in hush money. 

      This payroll amount gives you an advantage over just four other teams:  Pittsburgh Pirates ($49.3 m), Oakland A's ($47.9 m), Tampa Bay Rays ($43.8 m), and the Florida Marlins ($21.8 m).  Unlike these ballclubs, you do not have the advantage of dipping into your farm system for inexpensive talent as all of those players were on board of the tragic flight as well (maybe the crash had something to do with cramming 200-odd men into a plane designed to hold 50...).  In order to level the playing field for you, the Commissioner allows you to have free reign over the free agent pool before all of the other teams are allowed to sign players.  Who would you have targeted to remain in that budgeted amount of $50 million?

 

The Starting Lineup:

 

RF | Milton Bradley | 14 WSAB*  | $5.75 M | 2.4 WSAB per $1

 

Your scouts loved his swing from both sides of the plate and recognized his versatility of power and patience.  So you signed him based on that rather than his personality disorders which served you well.  During the 2008 season, he would chew up 509 plate appearances for your squad while setting a career-high in home run (22) thanks to your hitter-friend ballpark and led the league in on-base percentage (.436). 

 

Not a bad "get" for you with $44.75 million left to spend.

 

CF | Mike Cameron | 9 WSAB | $7 M

    

Big money spent on a player that would miss 25 games for failing MLB's drug policy.  Fortunately, Cameron would play stellar defense and finish as the 8th overall best defensive centerfield (+8 according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible), ahead of notable centerfielders such as Torii Hunter, who would later land a hefty contract when he wouldn't configure into your tight budget.  In addition to his glove, Cameron would deposit 25 home runs and hit .243/.331/.477 in 508 PAs. 

 

Cameron's acquisition would leave you with $37.25 remaining.  Looks like frugality time.

 

LF | Jody Gerut | 7 WSAB | $700k

 

Wow, you are a risk-taker of epic proportions.  Here you see value in a player that was not only was accused of having an unnecessary knee surgery in 2006 but also hasn't played an inning major or minor league ball.  After one of your scouts witnessed him in the Venezuelan Winter League mashing the ball, hitting .390/.488/.567 with 14 extra base hits in 141 at-bats, you take out a minor league contract on him - mostly to displace Cameron when he is serving his suspension.  Boy are you glad you did. Though a centerfielder by nature (+12, 5th best on the list of centerfielders in 2008), you use Gerut to patrol your spacious left field.  Unlike your two other outfielders, Gerut didn't strike out that much (14% k%) and smacked 14 home runs finishing .296/.351/.494 in 356 plate appearances. 

 

$36.55 left in the coffer.  

 

3B | Jorge Cantu | 6 WSAB | $500k

 

There was something that intrigued you about Cantu, especially in his 2005 season with the Devil Rays when he hit 28 home runs and compiled a .211 isolated slugging average.  In both 2005 and 2006 he was hitting line drives on nearly 20% of the balls in play.  When he washed out in 2007 with both the Devil Rays and then the Reds, people said "bust".  In 2007 he hit only 4 home runs in 300 at-bats split between the majors and AAA.  You reviewed his past minor league numbers carefully that show no indication that he is who he was in 2005 and 2006.  Strikes out a ton; walks about as much as a quadriplegic.  Then again, a consistent near 20% line drive rate each year of his career?  Might be worth the minor league flier - toss him aside if his spring training numbers don't show signs of life.  Against your statistical judgement, you sign him.  The power returns.  For pennies on the dollar, you end up nabbing a guy that hits 29 home runs and 41 doubles with an ISA of .204.  Cantu doesn't come without his faults.  He is atrocious at third (-11, 29th overall at third) and has actually accumulated 478 outs, the 7th highest in the league.  You'd pay half a million for that production again any day.       

 

Now, with $36.05 remaining, your sights are set on possible the hardest position to fulfill on the free market, shortstop.

 

SS | Jerry** Hairston | 8 WSAB | $500k

 

In 2007 while with the Texas Rangers, Hairston hit .189/.249/.289 in 192 at-bats.  What's more is that he hit even worse at the best hitter's ballpark in baseball - .172.  Plus he is tainted by the Mitchell Report.  Clearly this isn't the time to decide if you are a morally bankrupted organization as you had already signed Mike Cameron who would be serving a suspension.  If you wanted a holy and divine team you would have perused John Smoltz, Josh Hamilton or hire Gary Gaetti as your hitting coach.  In order to win, you have to become the Dallas Cowboys of baseball and grab inexpensive talent anyway you can.  Hairston, despite his shortcomings as a fielder, actually performs higher than expectations at the plate hitting, batting .326/.384/.487 in 297 plate appearances. 

 

Since Hairston is a brutal hack at short, better find a second baseman with range to their left to cut those grounders off up the middle with the remaining $35.55.

 

2B | Kaz Matsui | 4 WSAB | $5 M

 

With a thin second base market, you finally breakdown and sign someone to a 3-year deal that you figure won't damage your budget too much.  You ignore his statistics in Coors Field, assuming they are inflated by the high altitude and suspect that there will be decline and mostly focus in on his defense, but are pleasantly surprised when Matsui bats .293/.354/.427 in 422 at-bats.  As a bonus PR department enjoys the frequent press releases focusing on Matsui's early season surgery due to "anal fissures". 

 

$30.55 left and we haven't even gotten to first base or the pitching staff... 

1B | Doug Mientkiewicz | 4 WSAB | $750k

 

Like the second base position, first base was also a challenge to find worthy candidates on the market.  Mientkiewicz's agent wouldn't stop harassing you though.  He has become like Drama on Entourage, you think to yourself, desperate for work. The persistence paid off as you inked him to the one-year with an incentive laden contract for large amounts of bubble gum for every Web Gem.  Plus with all of the offensive-minded players in the infield, someone is going to have to be able to gobble up all their errant throws across the diamond.  His defense ends up being muddling at best, but his sudden rekindling of patience not seen since his Minnesota days astonishes your front office.  He walks 44 times and strikes out just 28 in 334 plate appearances.  You're criticized heavily for playing a guy with a .379 slugging percentage at first base - a position where the league average first baseman hit .479 - but you are happy with your selection for his discounted rate. 

 

$29.8 remaining...

 

C | Rod Barajas | 11 WSAB | $1.2 M (+ option year)

 

Ask any Philadelphian at the end of the 2007 if they were had by the Ballpark at Arlington factor when they signed Barajas to a one-year, $3-million dollar contract only and they would undoubtedly prattled off an endless stream of profanities.  Barajas would visit the DL list and finish the season batting .230/.352/.393 in 146 plate appearances, getting passed in playing time by Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste.  Gillick would later tell you that felt like he was solidifying the defense of the team by signing Barajas.  You know that Barajas's career on-base percentage was low (.289) and you assumed that his career slugging percentage (.409) was probably created in that statistical mirage in Arlington that has led many a baseball executives astray.  On the other hand, the class of free agent starting catchers are Barajas and Jason Kendell.  The problem with signing Barajas is that you are quite confident you will have to find a stellar back-up catcher as well.  You exhale painfully and offer Barajas a contract since his agent was willing to go lower than Kendell.  A one-year, $1.2 (with an option year) contract is extended and he accepts.  In 2008, his presences on-base is so rare (.294 OBP) that your first base coach tastefully quips that Jenna Jameson was more likely to show up at first during a Barajas plate appearance.  The power that was zapped in Philly, however, has a small resurgence for Barajas in your lineup as he gathers in 34 extra base hits and slugs .410 (well above the MLB average for a catcher of .390).  Furthermore, he allows just two passed balls in 785 innings behind the plate providing stability for your pitching staff to throw to. 

 

You had spent just under half of your budget on your starting eight regulars.  You are left with $28.60 to sign five starters, seven relievers and four bench players. 

  

 *WSAB: Win Share Above Bench

** Originally read "Joey Hairston". 

Most Improved Prospects: Strikeout Rate

 

 

 

#5 - Garrett Olson - Inf | 23 years old | 16.6% K% in 2007 - 13.5% K% in 2008 | 3.1% decrease

 

Drafted by the Twins out of Maine's Franklin Pierce University in the 4th round (126th overall) in 2006, Olson first went to Elizabethton where he batted .313/.396/.381 in 147 at-bats at the short-season.  The 6'-2" right-handed batting Olson was sent to low-A Beloit in 2007 where he failed to replicate the same output as he did in 2006.  He witnessed his strikeouts spike to 79 and his overall slashes fall to .217/.285/.317 in 438 at-bats.  Twins officials opted to keep Olson at Beloit to open the 2008 season where he responded with a 30/17 K/BB ratio in just under 250 at-bats.  Encouraged by this, Olson was sent to high-A Ft Myers where he regressed significantly as evident by his 38/9 K/B ratio and his .201/.249/.258 batting line.  Still if you are looking for a silverlining on this 4th round draftee, it is that he dropped his strikeout percentage by 3.1% normally a sign of someone developing better plate disipline.  Unfortunately for Olson, his increase in walks was nearly as pronounced as his strikeouts (just +0.79% increase in BB%) meaning his career on-base percentage of .299 isn't likely to improve much.  On top of that, turning 24 in 2009 and still being around A-ball doesn't bode well for Olson either.

 

#4 - Matt Moses - Of/DH | 23 years old | 19.8% K% in 2007 - 16.0% K% in 2008 | 3.2% decrease

 

I detailed Moses's minor league career extensively a week ago when he landed, coincidentally enough, as the #4 Most Improved Walk Rate in the system.  Sure, nearly 30% of his total hits went for extra bases but you have to factor in his age, that statistic looks unimpressive.  Without going too much further into his career background once again, let's attribute this improvement to none other than his fourth tour with New Britain in the Eastern League. 

 

#3 - David Winfree - RF | 22 years old | 21.6% K% in 2007 - 17.3% K% in 2008 | 4.3% decrease

 

Like Moses mentioned before him, Winfree also finished the year as #3 Most Improved Walk Rate in the system.  But unlike Moses, Winfree's improvement carries an air of legitimacy.  His first introduction to AA New Britain was marred by a large drop in walks and large increase in strikeouts (26/106 BB/K) but his second dance proved much more reassuring that he is on the right track (41/87 BB/K) and stroking the ball all over the field (42% xbh%).  Another reason to like Winfree: he mashes left-handed pitching.  According to Minorleaguesplits.com, Winfree hit .292/.370/.608 in 120 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2008.  In 402 career at-bats against southpaws, Winfree has maintained a steady .296/.354/.520 batting line. 

 

#2 - Daniel Berg - 1b/Of/DH | 23 years old | 26.6% K% in 2007 - 21.1% K% in 2008 | 5.4% decrease

 

Another member of the Most Improved Walk Rate squad (#5), Berg's success at reducing his strikeouts is somewhat surprising.  After spending a season split between Elizabethton and Beloit in which he struck out 59 times in 211 at-bats, Berg took on a full season at Beloit and saw his strikeout total swell to 103 in 333 at-bats.  The Twins front office moved him to high-A Fort Myers where Berg shaved his strikeout total to 49 in 222 at-bats and was advanced to AA New Britain where he struck out 18 times in 48 at-bats.  Striking out 44 fewer times in 2008 has led to additional balls put into play.  Since Berg hit line drives on 20% of the balls put in play, the results have been a .350 babip, leading to a .278/.374/.400 batting line (this is a hefty improvement over his 11% line drive rate in 2007).   

 

#1 - Johnny Woodard - 1b | 25 years old | 27.6% K% in 2007 - 21.3% K% in 2008 | 6.2% decrease

 

In 2003, the Twins used their 3rd round draft pick (88th overall) to select a powerful first baseman out of Consumnes River College in Sacramento.  Woodard, just 18 years old, would report to the Gulf Coast League Twins where that power failed to appear (8 extra base hits in 41 hits).  The following season, brought along slowly, Woodard would start at Elizabethton where he would led the team in on-base percentage (.385) and tied for second in home runs (8) in 194 at-bats.  This performance drew attention of Baseball America who ranked him on the Twins Top 30 prospects.  In 60 games with low-A Beloit, Woodard smacked eight home runs, in a season that had him sidelined all of April and June with a fractured foot.  However 2006 would be another lost year for Woodard who play in only 23 games with the Fort Myers Miracle but the slugger reemerged in Beloit in 2007 hitting .273/.390/.473 with 10 home runs in 205 at-bats.  This earned him a promotion back to Fort Myers where he struggled, striking out 64 times in 164 at-bats - totaling 126 on the season.  Once again at high-A Fort Myers to start the 2008 season, Woodard was limited to 245 at-bats but he greatly reduced his strike outs to 64.  His biggest detriment is his inability to hit same-sided pitching - in 195 at-bats, Woodard has hit only .190/.325/.318. 

The Friday Flotsam

• The Twins named Fort Myers Miracle pitching coach, Eric Rasmussen, the new Minor League Pitching Coordinator after the Detroit Tigers wooed Rick Knapp away from the organization to be the Tigers' pitching coach.  For the past ten years Rasmussen has been the Miracles' pitching coach helping groom the likes of Pat Neshek, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak and so on.  In 2008, the Miracle pitching staff led the league in ERA and strikeouts.   Back in 2004 Rasmussen was asked to evaluate the progress of Scott Baker, now a potential ace for the Twins.  Rasmussen told the Naples News that "(Baker) is on track.  He mixes his pitches really well and he's got a good competitive spirit. His fastball is above average and he's got a slider like all these guys, that when it's on, it's an average big league pitch.  Most of these guys, when they were in high school, they threw hard enough to where it didn't matter, there's not much need for a changeup. That's the pitch, the one that needs to be developed in pro ball here."  Now, as the pitching coordinator for the entire farm system, Rasmussen will be able to keep sending that message. Indeed, the emphasis of the Twins organization had been to drive home not only the ability to throw a changeup but to throw it often.  This policy had bode well for the team's staff. It worked for Johan Santana* (who throws it 28.7% of the time in 2008), Francisco Liriano's is harnessing his more often (20.0% of the time) and Glen Perkins is starting to spot his more frequently (15.7%).   

*Santana's changeup development has been attributed to Bobby Cueller who was the AAA Edmonton pitching coach in 2002 when he instructed Santana to throw his changeup in every count.  "He always had the pitch," said Cuellar, "Johan had to learn to trust it. I told him, 'Don't be afraid to throw it at any time. Trust it, and it will do what it is supposed to do.' It's the hardest thing for a young pitcher to do."  Throwing a change nearly 30% of the time is certain to make an appearance in every plate appearance.   

• Rick Knapp was very instrumental in working with the pitchers in the Twins' system.  Matt Garza recently told the Detroit Free Press that "[Knapp's] big thing is throwing strikes.  He wants you to be able to throw any pitch in any count for a strike. That's his philosophy."  Another Free Press, this time Mankato's Ed Thoma, penned another tribute to the departed pitching instructor.  Knapp's indoctrination of strike zone command within the minor league system has paid dividends since 2001 for big club.  Since 2001, the Twins have been either first or second in AL in walks allowed per game:

 

    2001 - 1st (tied) - 2.7

    2002 - 2nd (tied) - 2.7

    2003 - 2nd - 2.5

    2004 - 1st (tied) - 2.7

    2005 - 1st - 2.1

    2006 - 1st - 2.2

    2007 - 2nd - 2.6

    2008 - 1st - 2.5 

 

• More minor manuvers: former Twins catcher Tom Nieto has been named the manager of the AA New Britain Rock Cats, succeeding Bobby Cuellar who will be assuming Stu Cliburn's position as pitching coach of the AAA Rochester Red Wings.  Nieto was brought into the Twins organization in Feburary of 1987 when the team packaged Neal Heaton, Jeff Reed, Yorkis Perez and Al Cardwood to the Montreal Expos for closer Jeff Reardon and played in 1987 and 1988 at which point he was traded to Philadelphia along with Eric Bullock and Tommy Herr for pitcher Shane Rawley.  

 

• Beyond the Boxscore's RJ Anderson examines 'What in the World Happened to Delmon Young'.  Anderson notes that Young is just only 22-years-old and is possibly the player that develops slowly after several introductions. Or he could be your epitome of an underachieving prospect.  Nevertheless, I do want to highlight that Baseball-Reference as Carl Yastrzemski as Young's number one comparable at the age of 22.   

 

• In September's GameDay Magazine, I penned an article outlining how a good number of Major League teams are relocating their minor league teams to cities closer to the fan base.  Atlanta, Philadelphia and Seattle were all examples of how a system within close proximity could help kindle the local interest in prospects developing in the minors.  Add Milwaukee to that mix.  The Brewers have signed a four-year Player Development Contact with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Appleton, WI) in the Midwest League.  Brewers fans have the opportunity to drive two hours north instead of to West Virginia when they were playing in the South Atlantic League as the West Virginia Power.  

 

• For years I have believed that the image in Major League Baseball's now ubiquitous logo was the image of Harmon Killebrew.  Turns out I have been living a lie.  A recent Wall Street Journal article profiled the creator of the marketing device who said that it is not based on any one player said Jerry Dior, the New Jersey native who worked on the graphic while employed at Sandgren & Murtha, the advertising firm that created the image.  His son once heard the reference on a radio broadcast where the commentator made mentioned of the Killebrew connection.  "That's completely untrue. It's not Harmon Killebrew. It's not anyone in particular," was Dior's response.   

• The Denver Business Journal reported that the Colorado Rockies had a substantial decrease in their viewership on Fox Sports Net Rocky Mountain, a 4% decrease.  Naturally, when your team goes from a World Series contender to an NL West pretender, the local interest wanes.  Not surprisingly, the Twins were among the biggest gainers in viewership (+10.4%) as the team transformed from a 79-83 team that was 17.5 games out of first in 2007 to a 88-75 team that finished one game out of first in 2008.  Likewise, the White Sox saw a 68.9% increase in people tuning in as they went from 24 games out of first in '07 to winning the AL Central via Game 163.    

• Speaking of the Rockies, Bill Elliot from the Edmonton Sun noted that in 2002 - the infamous Moneyball draft profiled in Michael Lewis book - Colorado's front office desired Denard Span in their ninth overall pick.  A deal with Span could not be reached so the Rockies selected left-handed pitcher Jeff Francis instead.  Span fell to the Twins at the 20th overall pick but not before Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher and Cole Hamels were selected by the Mets, A's and Phillies. 

• When Hollywood and Major League Baseball come together it is often to mixed results.  The examples of "The Natural", "Field of Dreams", "Pride of the Yankees" and "Bang the Drum Slowly" are just some of the movies produced about the game that spin a worthy tale about the diamond and have been viewed as classic works of cinema.  To a lesser extent "Bull Durham", "League of the Own" and "Major League" are as well but probably not as highly regarded to film buffs as they are to baseball fans.  However, the questionable decisions to greenlight the likes of "Ed", "The Scout", "Summer Catch" and "From Left Field" certainly lends credence to the notion that there should be people fired for even suggesting to waste film on these disasters.  So when rumors began swirling that Lewis's Moneyball will be adapted into a screenplay to star Brad Pitt as the A's general manager Billy Beane, the book's main character, has been met with plenty of raised eyebrows.  For starters, while the book is insightful and informative, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of action - at least any that could seemingly keep audiences transfixed to the big screen for 120 minutes.  A scene in which Pitt's Beane would spend 15 minutes filibustering about the merits of drafting college-level Nick Swisher over the high school arm of Cole Hamels in a draft room would probably be meet with anything but yawns from the general public.  Regardless of how the reviews read, I still will be interested to see how this story is laid out.  For those familiar with the central characters of the book, here is what Dirty Laundry envisions playing those roles. Supposedly this will be ready in 2011.  

 

 

 

 

The Fragile Pysche of Matt Garza

When the Twins selected Matt Garza, then a junior out of Fresno State University, they selected a pitcher on the rise.  Entering college, Garza admitted his arsenal was limited to a 90+ fastball which was feasted upon and began developing supplementary pitches. "I came into college with one pitch," Garza told La Velle E. Neal with the Star Tribune in 2005, "A fastball I could not control too well.  I was kind of fed to the wolves that year." In his first two seasons in the Western Athletic Conference, Garza had thrown 133.1 innings while posting a ho-hum 98/65 K/BB and allowing 20 home runs.  By his junior season however, Garza emerged as a preseason All-WAC member and the ace of the Bulldogs with his mid-90s fastball in conjunction three other pitches (curve, slider and changeup) that he could throw for strikes.  Now armed with the necessary breaking and offspeed stuff, the 20-year-old dominated the competition, striking out 120 in 108.1 innings – averaging nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings.  Furthermore, Garza demonstrated command of the strike zone by walking just 37 in his 19 games and only surrendered five home runs.  For this performance, the WAC named Garza Pitcher of the Year in 2005. 

 

In June of that year, the Minnesota Twins made Matt Garza the 10^th pitcher chosen (25th overall) in a solid draft class.  Topping the list were future All-Star candidates in Justin Upton (ARI), Alex Gordon (KAN), Jeff Clement (SEA), Ryan Zimmerman (WAS), Ryan Braun, (MIL) and Troy Tulowitzki (COL).  The Twins and Garza agreed on a $1.37 million bonus, which inspired the 21-year-old pitcher to tell the Fresno Bee "I'm ecstatic.  Any time someone says you're going to be a millionaire and they make it happen, you've gotta be happy."

 

 

 

Garza was shipped to Elizabethton, where his transition to pro baseball was seamless. In 19 innings Garza posted a 25/6 K/BB ratio (striking out 34% of batters faced).  Following a nine strikeout outing in six innings against Houston's Appalachian League affiliate, Greenville, the Twins opted to move Garza to single-A Beloit to replace Anthony Swarzak in July 2005.  There in 56 innings of work, Garza maintained a 64/15 K/BB ratio (27.2% k%).  Garza finished his professional debut with 76 innings and a 3.57 ERA split between two levels.  

 

But when the baseball season concluded, the NCAA found Fresno State in violation of the league's new academic measures.  The collegiate governing body stripped equivalent of one baseball scholarship from the program as five Bulldog players were cited for failing marks.  Garza was one of the perpetrators.  Apologetic, Garza called from Florida to offer support to the teammates in California he left behind.  Whereas Garza's low grades cost his former squad a premier player via scholarship, 2005's 2nd round choice from Winthrop University, Kevin Slowey, carried a near-perfect 3.96 GPA with him in his three years at school.  This is an interesting contrast between two of the most highly touted Twins pitching prospects - one being described as "temperamental" and the other being labeled "a student of the game".  What his educational makeup or character says about Matt Garza's development as a pitcher is debatable, but it speaks volumes towards Matt Garza as a team player. 

 

Nevertheless, with academic strife now clearly behind him, Garza focused on his blossoming professional career.  Because of the World Baseball Classic - which took several of the Twins' pitchers out of spring camp in 2006 - Garza was given the opportunity to pitch in front of the Major League coaching staff.  "Garza did fine," said manager Ron Gardenhire after one outing in the spring, "He's got a nice-looking arm. He's going to be a nice-looking pitcher. It's nice to get to see the young man throw the ball." 

 

Pushed by Minor League Director Jim Rantz, the Twins advanced Garza through the system aggressively.  After just eight starts in the Florida State League - in which Garza threw 44 innings with 53 strikeouts - the organization promoted him to AA New Britain.  Garza was now in a league where he was significantly younger than the competition but continued to thrive throwing 57 innings and striking out 68 with a WHIP of 0.95.  He had yet to be challenged.  By mid-July, Garza found himself in Rochester, making five starts and tossing 34 innings while striking out 33 and walking just 7.  Even before the conclusion of the month, former manager Tom Kelly and general manager Terry Ryan were monitor Garza's starts in person trying to determine if the raw but dominate right-hander could help the Twins in the near future.  Because of injuries to Francisco Liriano and Brad Radke, Garza's major league debut was accelerated.  On August 11th, 2006, Matt Garza took the mound at the Metrodome against the Toronto Blue Jays.  Garza would barely last long enough to hear the echoes of the National Anthem cease as the Blue Jays scored seven runs on eight hits in 2 2/3 innings. "It was a little more than I expected," Garza said of his debut. "I tried to play calm, but when I got out there and heard the crowd, the adrenaline got going really high, really fast and that's when the nerves kicked in. I couldn't stop shaking after that first inning."  In his ten appearances in 2006, Garza did nothing to solidify his position on a postseason roster, often appearing "jittery" in his starts.  So when the decision to retain Glen Perkins, Willie Eyre or Garza on the roster, it was Perkins that was chosen and Eyre and Garza the odd men out.

 

 

 

As the rest of the Twins shamefully went three-and-out against the Oakland A's in the ALDS, Garza was honored in the offseason.  USA Today named him the Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 and earned the praise of his manager.  Ron Gardenhire told the newspaper "He's confident in his ability, but not to the point where he doesn't want to listen to anybody. He takes everything in. He understands that no one knows too much in this game. He knows he still has a lot of things to learn even though he's had a lot of success in the minors.  That's pretty special in a young player."

 

When spring camp began in Fort Myers before the 2007 season, it was assumed that Garza would be a part of the rotation.  "They say there is a spot open, so I'm pitching my [behind] off to get it," he said. "They said I'm not ready, but if I'm in Triple-A, I'm going to do what I did last year. So I'm coming out of the gate firing." But Garza was experiencing lingering neck problems, unable to pitch off of the mound for the first-half of March, which sidelined him for a period of time.  Predicated on this, the decision was made to send Garza to the minor league camp and allow veteran Sidney Ponson to hold the fifth spot in the rotation much to Garza's furor.  Reports said that Garza was visably "upset when he arrived in a golf cart at the minor league complex".  By mid-May, Garza was at full boil over mode, disgruntled with the amount of pressure applied to make him hone his seldom used off-speed pitches.  "I know how to pitch," Garza said [to Pioneer Press reporter Kelsie Smith] by phone. "I didn't get up here because I don't know how to pitch. I said (to Rochester pitching coach Stu Cliburn), 'Just let me pitch. You guys just relax. Yeah, I was in a funk for April. My bad. I'm sorry I didn't deal with disappointment the way you guys thought I was going to.  I know I can throw my off-speed pitches for strikes. It's just that I was pressing because I was trying to make them happy, and I can't be that guy anymore. ... I told my pitching coach, and I hope he relayed the message (to general manager Terry Ryan and director of minor leagues Jim Rantz), I said, 'I can't do it, man. I've been scratching my head and not sleeping well at night because I'm trying to be something I'm not.' "

 

In the same tirade, Garza blamed his poor results at the end of 2006 on a "dead arm", mostly due to his lack of conditioning in the previous offseason.  Rantz, who was instrumental in bringing Garza up to the big club in 2006, responded to these claims by saying "If you had a dead arm, I would think that your velocity would really show that.  He threw hard, so if that's what he said, that was his thinking. We didn't think that." According to Fangraphs.com, Garza's fastball while with the Twins was averaging 94-mph, far from a telltale sign of fatigue. 

 

As the Twins tried to keep pace with the front running Indians and Tigers in 2008, Garza was recalled from Rochester, who in 16 starts with the Red Wings had thrown 92 innings while striking out 95 and walking 31.  On the last day of June, Garza rejoined the team in Detroit, but had some explaining to do about his earlier comments.  "Being sent down was the best thing for me, just for the fact that it helped me gain trust in my pitches. I'll throw a changeup (on a) 3-2 count, and not say, 'Oh my God, maybe maybe maybe,' " he said. "I want to be the best pitcher I can be. If that means I have to take a couple of steps back in order to go forward, they know what's best for me."  In all, Garza pieced together a good development season, throwing 175 innings between Rochester and the Twins, striking out 162 and walking 63. 

 

The 2007 season concluded with a whimper and without a postseason berth for the Twins.  Moving towards 2008, the team readied themselves for a rebuild mode, as newly annoitted General Manager Bill Smith allowed Torii Hunter to depart through free agency and dangled Johan Santana in front of several suitors.  With what appeared to be a surplus of pitchers, Twins began looking to flip one of them for an offensive addition.  Ot appeared obvious that Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey, two highly regarded prospects, were the commodities that would acquire the largest returns among all of the prospects in the system.  As Garza's ascension was at the forefront of Twins fans' attention, Slowey was putting together a good minor league portfolio even if his major league debut was met with less fanfare.  In 353 innings at five different levels, Slowey had struck out 342 and walked just 48.  In the end it would be Garza, possibly because of his history of butting head's with the coaching staff, that would be the candidate to headline a six-player trade with Tampa Bay that netted the Twins Delmon Young.

 

 

 

His initial review of the Tampa organization was also a not-to-subtle jab at Minnesota's ability to play tug-o-war with prospects:  "The best thing about this is that there's absolutely no pressure," Garza said during spring workouts. "I've got the No. 3 job, I know when I'm toeing it up and all I have to worry about is getting ready. Last year, I was kind of fighting an uphill battle. Here, I'm not fighting anything; I'm just going out there and pitching, and it's been one heck of a ride. It's been a blast."   

 

Later, Garza would remark that his tenure with the Twins was "disappointing. They kept a couple guys I felt I was, I could have done maybe, probably, even better than. It was a rude awakening, a humbling feeling.  My whole mentality was, 'Win a spot, win a spot, win a spot.  Now it's more get ready for that spot and take it to the next level. Try to be that guy. Everyone wants to be that (Johan) Santana. I want to take it to the next level." 

 

It is nothing new for a former Twins player to take the opportunity to vent about their experience as a Twins prospect.  After Todd Walker was traded he told the media that "I think [manager Tom] Kelly can go to the extreme when he talks about what a guy can or can't do.  Especially what he can't do."  More recently, David Ortiz told the Boston Globe "Something in my swing was not right in Minnesota.  I could never hit for power.  Whenever I took a big swing, they'd say to me, 'Hey, hey, what are you doing?' So I said, 'You want me to hit like a little bitch, then I will.'"  There seems to be a limitless amount of former players ready to opine about the franchise's policy of driving the ball to opposite field, becoming more focused on glove work or obtaining consistency with an off-speed pitch (as was the case with Garza) isn't beneficial to how the individual plays the game.  To some, these complaints are justified as evident by Ortiz's 40-plus home run seasons.  When Garza did it, it comes off prima donnaish. 

 

In just Garza's second start as a Ray, he left a game against the Mariners experiencing pain in his throwing elbow.  He would wind up on the 15-day DL with a radial nerve irritation, an injury that Garza insinuated began while pitching with the Twins last year.  The Twins manager was befuddled at these claims.  "He never missed a bullpen [session] or a start [here]." said Gardenhire, "I don't know what he's saying. I haven't read it and don't plan on reading it, just based on what you said. Everything was documented on Matt Garza and there were no injuries here."

 

On June 8th, Garza and catcher Dioner Navarro were face-to-face in the dugout tunnel at the Ballpark at Arlington and had to be physically separated by manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey.  This was a continuation stemming from heated words exchanged on the mound during the game.  The battery mates ironed out their differences prompting Rays general manager Andrew Friedman to referred to Garza as a "recovering emotionalist."  Since the altercation, Garza began having "heart-to-hearts" with manager Joe Maddon and visiting a Cal State-Fullerton sports psychologist, Ken Ravizza, to address his issues dealing with his emotions and "accepting input from others".

 

Two big victories against the defending champion Boston Red Sox got Garza rewarded with the ALCS MVP following a 2-0 record and allowing just two earned runs in 13 innings while striking out 14.  No longer is Garza the number three guy avoiding pressure of big games by ducking the number one label, as he proclaimed when he arrived to the Rays camp in the spring - he will be thrusted into the bright lights of the World Series, squaring off with the likes of Cole Hamels.  Which Matt Garza will show up to the World Series? Will it be the one that went toe-to-toe with the Red Sox Nation?  Or the one that came toe-to-toe with Dioner Navarre?   Has all of the turmoil Garza's been through made him the John Smoltz type pitcher that he is so often compared to since Game 7 or will his emotions get the best of him? 

 

Most Improved Prospects: Walk Rate

 

 

In 2007, the two top prospects that led the walk rate improvement list were Luke Hughes (#2) and Brian Dinkelman (#1).  Dinkelman followed up in 2008 with a solid performance at high-A Fort Myers (though he was two years older than most of the competition) and was revered by Baseball America as having the "Best Strike-Zone Discipline" but Hughes had a breakout season that has led to him being rated by Seth Stohs and the readers at Twinkie Town as the #10 overall prospect in the organization.  Previously, Hughes was a virtual unknown.  John Sickels's at MinorLeagueBall.com asked the question of where Hughes came from and noting that even Baseball America didn't have Hughes listed among the top prospects for the Twins.  Outside of Dinkelman and Hughes, third baseman Brian Buscher was fourth on the list of most improved and he has found himself a comfortable home as a third base platoon at the Metrodome.  Who is in this year's top five for most improved walk rate and are they tomorrow's Twins?

 

#5 - Daniel Berg - 1b/Of/DH | 23 years old | 8.7% BB% in 2007 - 11.04% BB% in 2008 | 2.35% increase

 

Dan Berg, the Twins' 30th round draft selection in 2004 out of Texarkana College, spent his third minor league season at low-A Beloit in 2007 where he posted a lowly .214/.298/.291 batting line with a 32/98 BB/K ratio in 368 plate appearances.  His .589 OPS was well below the Midwest League's average of .696.  This was a significant regression from Berg who had spent 2006 split between Elizabethton and a sip of coffee at Beloit where he finished with a respectable .245/.348/.445 batting line with a 27/56 BB/K ratio in 234 plate appearances.  His induction to his first full season above rookie ball was rough, as he struck out in 26.6% of his plate appearances.  In Berg's defense, the organization was uncertain as to where Berg would best help the club on the field.  He would bring his infielder's glove, outfielder's glove, first baseman's glove and catching equipment to the dugout each day as well as being mentally prepared to be the designated hitter for that game too.  When he was assigned to high-A Fort Myers in 2008, the Twins had all but shelved the idea of Berg being a catcher.  Berg would play the majority of his games at first base and some in left field (those familiar with the Defensive Spectrum should deduce that the Twins are not particularly high on Berg's defense).  In 262 plate appearances with the Miracle, Berg pieced together his best season yet, batting .279/.381/.414 with a 32/49 BB/K ratio.  This earned him a promotion to AA New Britain.  In minimal exposure in the Eastern League, Berg's .255/.327/.319 batting line in 55 plate appearances is far from exceptional.  Berg, who will be 24 in the 2009 season, has now compiled a career line of .234/.329/.350 with 102/241 BB/K ratio.  He will most likely begin the season at New Britain and will need to put up similar numbers to his Fort Myers stint in order to continue to climb the organization's ladder the added patience is a good sign that he can adapted to the higher level of pitching. 

 

#4 - Matt Moses - Of/DH | 23 years old | 4.49% BB% in 2007 - 8.16% BB% in 2008 | 3.67% increase

 

When the Twins spent their 21st overall pick in 2003 on the third baseman out of Mills Godwin High School in Richmond, Virginia the front office figured they had found Corey Koskie's replacement in the coming years.  In 2004 as a 19 year old, Baseball America labeled him as the 3rd best prospect in the system.  His .224/.297/.362 batting line in just 128 plate appearances thanks to a lingering back injury while at the Gulf Coast League and Midwest League failed to meet the expectations placed upon someone that was viewed as one the best pure hitters in the 2003 draft.  In 2005, Baseball America dropped him down to the 8th best prospect as the Twins advanced him to high-A Fort Myers as a 20 year old.  While there, Moses showed why he was deemed a top ten prospect hitting .306/.376/.453 with a 28/59 BB/K ratio in 298 plate appearances.  This earned Moses a midseason promotion to AA New Britain where he was unable to compete with the pitcher's that were four years older on average (24.5).  In 204 plate appearances in the Eastern League, Moses hit a lowly .210/.275/.366 but did manage to slug 6 home runs.  Regarding this season as substantial progress, Baseball America once again named him the 3rd best prospect in the system.  The team decided to start Moses at AA giving the 21 year old a full season to develop with older competition.  Though he produced well in the power department (15 home runs, 16 doubles) he was ultimately over-matched as evident by his 35/113 BB/K ratio resulting in a minuscule on-base percentage of .303.  Moses fell completely off of Baseball America's radar.  Instead of giving Moses the opportunity to grow in AA in 2007, the Twins decided to push Moses to AAA Rochester.  The aggressive promotion backfired in the organization's face and after 48 games and a .224/.244/.305 batting line, he was shipped back to the Eastern League.  Part of the problem was that Moses reported to camp thirty pounds lighter than his 2006 season.  On the whole, the season was almost a complete wash in his developmental path as he finished with a .248/.283/.362 line with a 21/93 BB/K ratio and just 6 home runs.  In attempts to allow Moses to refine his swing and approach at the plate, the Twins started him in 2008 at AA again.  While there, he improved his peripheral numbers, walking 35 times and striking out just 65 times - a huge improvement for Moses - but he was unable to avoid defenders in the field as indicated by his .270 batting average on balls in play.  Nearly a quarter of his flyballs hit, which he did so nearly 40% of the time, were infield flies.  Together, this led to a unreasonably low .230/.293/.318 batting line in his third tour of AA ball.  Moses's, though still young, may be on the path to being systematically phased out of the Twins farm system as third base candidates like Dan Valencia and Luke Hughes continue to show progress in stark contrast to the direction that Moses is heading.   Bottom line?  The future is bleak for Matt Moses. 

 

#3 - David Winfree - RF | 22 years old | 5.31% in 2007 - 10.16% in 2008 | 4.85% increase

 

Winfree was drafted from high school 12 rounds lower than the aforementioned Matt Moses in 2003 but proved from the onset that he might be the better prospect after being named the organization's Minor League Player of the Year in 2005 while batting .294/.329/.452 with 16 home runs and a 22/93 BB/K ratio.  Excluding his inability to draw a walk, one would have to say that was a very good season for one of the top right-handed power bats in the Twins system.  With vaunted expectations moving into 2006, a shoulder surgery and a thumb injury caused his season to sputter and out of frustration, Winfree returned home to Virginia Beach on a leave of absence.  After five days away from baseball, Winfree returned to Fort Myers where he hit 13 home runs from the end of July to September and was sent to the Arizona Fall League.  In 2007, the Twins started Winfree in AA, making efforts to transition him from the third baseman (who made 34 errors in the season he was named Minor League Player of the Year) to first base.  At the plate, Winfree witnessed his peripherals slide (26 walks to 106 strikeouts) and ended the season with 490 plate appearances, 12 home runs and a .267/.308/.426 batting line.  Recognizing that Justin Morneau at first base is an immovable object for the next few seasons, Winfree was once again repositioned in 2008 as a right fielder (which with Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer there, it is just the same dead-end).  His range was essentially an arm span, Winfree made improvements at the plate in his second year in AA as a 22 year old.  Winfree almost doubled the amount of walks drawn (41) and significantly reduced his strikeouts (86) all leading to a better on-base percentage .319 and his 19 home runs led the team.  The challenge for Winfree in 2009 will be to continue to show patience at the plate and start to develop into a DH with the capabilities of displacing Morneau at first if he needs an off-day without losing much in the power department. 

 

#2 - Steve Singleton - Inf | 22 years old | 2.05% BB% in 2007 - 7.28% BB% in 2008 | 5.23% increase

 

The switch-hitting Steven Singleton was drafted out of the University of San Diego (along with relief prospect Anthony Slama) in 2006 with the 336th pick overall.  The 20 year old was sent to Elizabethton where he quickly thrived, batting .340/.368/.556 with 18 extra base hits in 156 plate appearances.  In 2007, Singleton was moved to low-A Beloit where his statistics took a dive, finishing the year with a .271/.294/.346 batting line and 8/47 BB/K ratio.  This past season, the Twins started Singleton back at Beloit where he made wholesale improvement in his game by increasing his walks (from 8 to 19) and reducing his strikeouts (from 47 to 29) and batting .302/.348/.421 in 259 plate appearances.  This production earned the San Francisco native a promotion to high-A Fort Myers where he continued this output, batting .295/.371/.452 in 277 plate appearances, but most importantly posted a 26/24 BB/K ratio against stiffer competition.  For the season Singleton finished batting .301/.362/.439 with 11 home runs and a 39/53 BB/K ratio.  In order for Singleton to emerge as a viable second base candidate, he would have to perform at a similar level in AA in 2009. 

 

#1 - Chris Parmelee - 1B | 20 years old | 9.16% in 2007 - 17.93% in 2008 | 8.77% increase

 

Going into the 2006 season, Chris Parmelee was rated the #4 prospect in the Twins organization, brimming with raw power in the farm system that hasn't been seen since Justin Morneau was brought to the big club.  After being drafted out of Chino Hills High School (CA) in 2006 with the 20th pick overall, the Twins sent him to Elizabethton where the six-foot, one-inch, 221-pound lefty mashed 8 home runs in 206 plate appearances (3.2% HR%).  The next season the organization progressed him to low-A Beloit where he hit 15 home runs in 501 plate appearances (2.9% HR%) but struck out an Adam Dunn-like 137 times (27.3%).  The problem with Parmelee in 2007, however, was that he was unable to draw walks the way Adam Dunn could (9.1% BB%).  Strikeouts are frequently blown out of proportion by those that see a number like 137 and assume the worst.  As in, he is a free swinger, an all-or-nothing type.  His 2008 season, his second tour of Beloit, proved the naysayers wrong.  After 226 at-bats, Parmelee was hitting .239/.385/.496 with 14 home runs when he ran into the outfield wall and suffered a wrist injury that would shut him down for the remainder of the season.  He is still at least two years away from seeing Major League action (especially after a season-ending wrist injury).  Still, Parmelee's advancements in his strike zone judgement, going from 46/137 BB/K in 2007 to 52/83 BB/K in 2008, is a huge step forward.