The Friday Flotsam

* The PiPress's Tom Powers is suggesting the Twins pick up the recently jettisoned Richie Sexson to address several needs, most notably the ability to hit left-handed pitching. This, of course, would mean that the Twins would have to do the same to one member of their roster as the Mariners did to Sexie. Mike Lamb seems to be a logical candidate as the Twins have an overwhelming amount of players that can handle third base plus the left-handed Brian Buscher who is produce in the way the Twins wanted Lamb to when he was signed in the winter. One obvious reason that the Twins wouldn't release Lamb is that they are still committed to paying him $3 million dollars in 2009. Even at the cost of discarding $3 million plus and adding the 34-year-old Sexson who may or may not be washed up, the Twins might be desperate enough to execute a move such as that. Craig Monroe, the right-handed bat the traded for in the off-season, was acquired because he was hitting .260/.311/.467 in his career against lefties but is hitting a paltry .127/.225/.225 in 80 plate appearances this season. Sexson has had better career average against lefties (.265/.369/.510) and is doing better against lefties this season, hitting .344/.423/.623 in 71 plate appearances. Sexson would be limited to designated hitter but could also displace first baseman Justin Morneau for a night off (however Sexson has an atrocious glove, ranked 30th among major league first baseman according to the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus). Using Sexson ONLY against left-handed pitching would be the ideal deployment, however, Geoff Baker with the Seattle Times reports that the main reason to cut Sexson was his "body language" displayed when manager Jim Riggleman limited him to left-handed pitching. "I think he would have given us power immediately against left-handers," Riggleman said. The cost of adding the right-handed dh against left-handed pitching and late-innings pinch hitter to the roster would be approximately $4 million-plus (on top of the $390K league minimum payment), the amount the Twins would owe Mike Lamb, and the possible addition of someone who is unsatisfied with their role. BUT the Twins wouldn't have to package anyone in a trade (like they did in the futile Phil Nevin deal). Is this a desirable acquisition?

* Ragging on Sid Hartman is like shooting fish in a barrel of petroleum jelly...with a hand grenade. It really isn't sporting. He is to sports reporting what People magazine is to news. Nevertheless his longevity and "close personal friends" have kept him in print even though his columns have turned into uninteresting, rambling talking points introduced by his trademark "Well,". Today his column title ("Morneau sizzles at the plate, but also impresses with his glove") sucked me in via the TwinsGeek blogroll. Before I get to far off in this tangent, I want to begin by saying I do believe that Justin Morneau has developed into a solid defensive first baseman. He cannot handle the hard hit grounders between him and second or him and the foul line the way converted shortstop-cum-first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz could but Morneau has become a vacuum when it comes to the low-throws and picks. (Then again, I feel that having a first baseman that cannot contain a majority of the low throws and throws in the dirt is as useful as having a shortstop that can't pivot left for the doubleplay. It should be in the job description.) His ability to cover ground in foul territory has seemed to expand since his earlier seasons as well. Bottom line is that whatever range is sacrificed in the field is more than regained through his power and his ability to hit for a high average. Sid's justification for Morneau's candidacy for a gold glove is fielding percentage - a statistic that is as antiquated as the medium in which Hartman writes for. I would go into the complete details of why it is a faulty meter in this diatribe, assuming that most readers that have found themselves here at OTB have a good comprehension on why fielding percentage is a junk metric. According to the Hardball Times revised zone rating statistic, Morneau is eighth among AL first basemen at .709. Like it's predecessor fielding percentage, revised zone rating is a better yet incomplete statistic. The overall encompassing measurement is the one created by John Dewan. The Fielding Bible Plus/Minus has Morneau ranked at 15th among major league first baseman with 0. Casey Kotchman of the Angels, on the other hand, leads American League first baseman with a +12. Daric Barton, Lyle Overbay and Kevin Youkilis all have rankings better than Morneau. I do believe that Justin Morneau is a high-quality first baseman defensively but he is hardly a glove glove candidate.

* LEN3 wrote that the Twins do not have an 8th inning guy in the wake of two consecutive losses attributed to the bullpen. He indicated a very good point that the trade market for solid middle relief will undoubtedly be overpaid for. SBG's ubelman made a quick post that echoed the same sentiment. Without a doubt, the Twins have all the components to make an outstanding bullpen but lack the pitcher (Neshek) that would put it over the top. Acquiring it on the open market before the trade deadline would most likely cost the organization dearly. Last year when Boston traded for Eric Gagne they gave up Kason Gabbard, David Murphy and Engel Beltre. In 18.2 innings of work, Gagne produced a 6.75 era and opponents were hitting .325/.393/.463 in 89 match-ups. The Red Sox gave Gagne his walking papers prior to this season but were three prospects short when gaining -1.58 wpa in those 20 appearances. It would be more beneficial for the Twins in the long run to exhaust the search for an internal candidate before attempting to make a trade.

* The disbelief behind Nick Punto's play is quite staggering. Who could have predicted this? Oh yeah, me. I might as well have tried to forecast that gas prices would decline to under a buck a gallon or predict that Pauly Shore was destined for an Oscar in 2009 for the reaction it got me when I wrote it originally. I'm not saying that Baseball Prospectus should have me on the payroll, but still, have to pat myself on the back a little. Is Punto really a .320/.378/.460 hitter? No, but he isn't a .210/.291/.271 hitter either. He had extremely bad luck mostly because his .257 batting average on balls in play was the lowest among qualified batters in the American League - a direct result of him hitting line drives only 12% of the time. This season he might be one of the luckiest batters in the league riding a .369 batting average on balls in play with FEWER line drives (11%). Want another prediction? It's not sustainable but it is not entirely out of the question for him to finish close to his 2006 numbers.

* Watching Ron Gardenhire emerge from the dugout to argue with the umpire after questionable calls is getting as predictable as a band returning to the stage for an encore at a concert. Fans half-heartily cheer when Gardy gets going full-steam but it feels forced. It is expect. After finishing the book on Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver, "Weaver on Strategy", I have been somewhat enlightened as to some of the various reasons cited for why a manager would dance the charade of arguing with an umpire. Some of the reasons are legit, some are just out of sheer frustration. And sometimes the umpires egg you on - like in this recorded instance in a game against the Detroit Tigers. Personally, I love Weaver and the majority of his strategies but you have to love the way he handled the media the most. (warning: potty mouthery in the links).

Carlos Gomez versus Jacoby Ellsbury: A Statistical Comparison

at the plate:

	pa	xbh%	k%	bb%	avg	obp	slg	isop	wpa
C. Gomez	377	24.2%	23.6%	3.7%	.266	.301	.370	.104	-1.37
J. Ellsbury	339	22.5%	14.7%	9.4%	.268	.341	.375	.107	0.24

The basic slashes of the two speedy centerfielders are comparable, outside the on-base percentage (obp). In terms of average and slugging, Ellsbury holds a slight edge over Gomez however the Red Sox outfielder owns Gomez when it comes to contact (15% vs 24% strikeout rate) and drawing walks (9% vs 4% walk rate). Nearly a quarter of Gomez's hits go for extra bases (24.2%) and Ellsbury has practically matched it (22.5%). Neither player's standard lines are very impressive. Both having batting averages barely north of the American League average (.264) while Gomez's on-base percentage is 31 points lower than the rest of the league (.332), Ellsbury has parlayed his plate discipline (9.4% bb%) into an on-base percentage nine points higher than the league average. This added ability of reaching base has led to a positive win probability added (wpa) for Ellsbury (0.24) as Gomez has detracted from the Twins with his negative contribution.

batted balls:

	babip	infield hits	bunt hits	gb%	fb%	ld%	hr/fb%	pulled%	middle%	opposite%
C. Gomez	.340	13	21	41.9%	41.0%	17.0%	5.3%	46.2%	27.0%	26.6%
J. Ellsbury	.303	13	6	49.6%	27.2%	22.0%	7.2%	32.2%	31.8%	35.8%

What we can deduce from the batted balls comparison is that Gomez is riding a higher batting average on balls in play (babip) thanks to his ability to leg out bunt hits. 50% (24 out of 42) of the time that Gomez attempted to bunt for a hit, he reached first. Comparatively, Ellsbury carries a 75% bunt rate conversion (6 for 8). The difference is that Gomez has attempted 32 more bunt hits than Ellsbury. Subtract Gomez's 21 bunt hits (assuming that he fails to reach on those opportunities) and he would be carrying a brutal .204 average. Do the same for Ellsbury and he is sporting a poor but passable .245 average.

The American League average on line drives is .726/.721/.992. This is an occurrence that happens on 19% of balls in play. Understandably, the line drive is trajectory with the highest rate of success. Ellsbury is producing line drives 22% of the time compared to Gomez's 17%. Ellsbury holds a distinct advantage over Gomez in this department. Similarly, the fly ball is the least effective method to obtain a hit, something that happens 44% of the time in the American League. American League batters are hitting .215/.209/.512 when they do this. Like Willie Mays Hayes in Major League, Gomez pops up far too frequently for a lead-up, speed-based hitter as 41% of the time he unleashes a fly ball. Gomez is hitting .202/.202/.372 on his.

Directionally, Gomez is a pull-hitter. Nearly 50% of the time Gomez is yanking the pitch to the left side. This, indicated by his .406 average on balls in play, is his best route to getting a hit. Gomez's average when going back up the middle (.279) and to right (.230) are both lackluster. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is the definition of a spray-chart, peppering the field in an almost even distribution. He has the seen the most success hitting the ball back through the box (.346) but has also fared well pulling the ball to right (.305). The direction where he deposits most of his balls, opposite field, also has his lowest success rate (.264).

performance as a leadoff man:

	pa	obp	team runs	team runs per inning when leading off	runs per inning by team when not leading off	difference	runs/rbi
C. Gomez	140	.286	91	.65	.53	+.12	23/2
J. Ellsbury	129	.326	88	.68	.54	+.14	29/4

Leading off not only happens at the start of the game but the subsequent appearance leading off each inning require a genuine table-setter. This statistic was tracked first in Bill James' Gold Mine and is updated on his website. His definition states that this shows "how well the player’s team scored when the player led off the inning, compared to how they scored when others led off innings. It also shows how well they scored when the player reached base leading off, and when he failed to reach base leading off." Certainly the ability to score runs per inning is heavily contingent of the quality of the following hitters in the order but it also is dependant on the speed and base path prowess that a player has. You can't average nearly a run an inning if you can't get the lead-off hitter to scamper around the bases. In 2007 the New York Mets Jose Reyes led the major in innings led of with 321 plate appearances. Under those circumstances, Reyes held a .330 on-base percentage yet the Mets only score .58 runs per inning when he was leading off. This was far from the 2007 leader, Jimmy Rollins, who led the majors with .85 runs per inning when he led off for the Phillies. In 140 occasions this season Carlos Gomez has led off an inning for the Twins resulting in 91 runs for the team in that time which equates to .65 runs per inning. Ellsbury holds an edge over Gomez in this department as well. In his 129 times leading off an inning, Ellsbury has scored 88 runs averaging .68 runs per inning. Once again, Ellsbury has bested Gomez as a lead-off hitter, producing .14 runs per inning more for the Red Sox on average a silver more than Gomez's .12 contribution to the Twins.

(Side Note: The sabermetric movement has been vocal for Joe Mauer's relocation to the lead-off spot. This provides the Twins best hitter and on-base guy with added plate appearances over the course of a 162 game season. Based on evidence, this might be beneficial to the Twins offense. In 56 plate appearances this season Mauer has led off the inning for the Twins. In that time, Mauer holds a .464 on-base percentage - a number that is substantially greater than Carlos Gomez's .286. When Mauer leds off the inning for the Twins, the team scores .68 runs.)

zone awareness:

	pitches	pitches per pa	taken%	swung%	taken for ball%	taken for strike%	swung - in zone%	swung - ooz high%	swung - ooz low%	swung - ooz inside%	swung - ooz outside%
C. Gomez	1281	3.39	45%	55%	66%	34%	64%	8%	13%	3%	13%
J. Ellsbury	1240	3.65	58%	42%	64%	36%	75%	2%	6%	8%	9%

This is where the minutia, each pitch, explains the statistic provided above. There is an obvious correlation to these numbers and the aforementioned difference in their strikeout rates and walk rates but it could enlighten us to why Gomez is more of a fly ball/ground ball hitter and Ellsbury is more of a ground ball hitter. First, the two vary in their plate approach vastly. Gomez is more of a swinger (55%) while Ellsbury practices patience (58%). Oddly enough, even though Gomez is far more impatient than his Boston counterpart he has taken more pitches for balls than Ellsbury. Again, here is where another schism between the two players reside. Seldom does Ellsbury take a hack at a pitch that finds its way out of the zone. 75% of the balls Ellsbury has swung at have been inside this zone. This plate awareness is the reason behind 72% of Ellsbury's batted balls either being a ground ball or a line drive. Conversely 36% of the time Gomez has taken swings at pitches out of the zone. As you will note, he has swung at 13% of balls that have been low and 13% of balls that have been outside (there has to be some overlap to account for all of the low-and-away sliders that Gomez has swung at). The low pitch will undoubtedly led to ground balls or fly balls. Judging from Gomez's uppercut swing I would be inclined to believe that is why he is lofting more balls than driving them.

on the bases:

	sb%	runs gained through sb	net bases gained*
C. Gomez	72%	0.28	+3
J. Ellsbury	83%	3.32	+28

*From BillJamesOnline.net encompassing opportunities to advance

from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home and 1st to home and the time executed in addition to grounded into doubleplays.

Carlos Gomez has speed. That goes without saying. He has performed admirably on the turf where he has recorded 13 stolen bases, an 86% success rate on the artificial substances. Natural grass, however, might as well be a swimming pool for all the good it has done to his foot speed. Fifteen times Gomez has tried to swipe bases and only 8 times he has been successful (53%). His runs gained through his 21 stolen bases has barely amounted to a quarter of a run. All the running has done little for the Twins offense. Ellsbury has speed as well. As opposed to Gomez, Ellsbury has thrived on the crushed brick dirt, stealing 33 of his 35 runs outdoors. This movement has added 3.3 more runs for the Red Sox.

Furthermore, the BillJamesOnline.net has charted the amount of opportunities to go from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home and 1st to home combined with the amount of doubleplays grounded into and stolen bases. They have found that Ellsbury has a great deal more bathpath awareness as he has netted 28 bases as Gomez has only attained 3 additional bases. Naturally, the age difference comes in to play but far too often I have heard that Gomez's base-running indiscretions are credited to his lack of professional experience. It should be noted that Gomez has played 114 more professional baseball games than Jacoby Ellsbury.

patrolling centerfield:

	innings	range factor	revised zone rating	throwing errors	fielding error	kills	expected outs	outs made	plus/minus	mlb cf rank
C. Gomez	730	3.27	.939	4	2	2	262	270	+17	1
J. Ellsbury	299	2.50	.951	0	0	0	92	93	+3	13

Defense is the category in which Gomez outshines Ellsbury by a landslide. Currently under John Dewan's Fielding Bible Plus/Minus rankings, Gomez is the number one centerfielder in the major leagues. Ellsbury defensive talent has landed him at number 13. Gomez has an overzealous arm (a strong arm at that) has led to four throwing errors but has also erased two base runners at the same time. Base-runners have had 88 opportunities to take an extra base and only 49 (.557 pct) ran on Gomez's arm. The scouting reports highlight Gomez's arm which is why more runners do not attempt to take the extra base however, I question his accuracy at this juncture in his career. Nevertheless the two kills and the .557 advance percentage ranks Gomez's arm as 18th among centerfielders. Ellsbury has zero kills and has had 26 of 39 base-runners advance on him (a .667 advance percentage) which slots his arm as the 30th overall among centerfielders.

As indicated above in the base-running statistics, both outfielders have notable speed. This has manifested itself through covering added ground. Gomez's speed has given him a hefty range factor and has allowed him to track an additional 8 outs that were not expected to be converted. Ellsbury, in his fraction of time in center, has tracked down only one additional out.

Notebook Dump (07.09.08)

Score: Twinks 5, Red Sux 6

Box Score

Record: 50-40, 2nd place, 2.5 back

Streak: 2 losses

The Quote: "I was trying to go away. I think sometimes, when you get in big situations, you overthrow a little bit, and the ball may do something different than you want it to. The ball kind of ran back in and up. It's the one place you don't want to go." - Matt Guerrier

The Inning: Guerrier. Manny. Anything else would be just lip service with statistics.

The Links:

(*) Today's afternoon game B-R.com preview: Livan "Fenway With A Win" Hernandez versus Josh Beckett. Hernandez has not fared well in Fenway according to his small sampling. In his two starts he has gone only 8 innings with a 12.38 era. His most recent was in 2006, Hernandez was tagged for 6 runs in 1.2 innings. The Twins, meanwhile, are 13-14 in day games this season.

(*) Let the rumors begin. For the record, I am in complete favor of Adrian Beltre who, if acquired, would still be available to the Twins for the 2009 for the reasonable price of $12-million for a right-handed power-hitting, solid glove third baseman (contingent on how many of the organization's prospects are involved). An entity that has elluded the Twins who have not been able to purchase or develop internally. According to the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus, Beltre is currently the third best defensive third baseman behind Scott Rolan and Troy Glaus with a plus/minus of +14 in addition to that, he has been smacking left-handed pitching around, batting .371/.482/.586 with 4 home runs in 85 plate appearances.

Notebook Dump (07.08.08)

Game: Twinks 0, Red Sux 1

Box Score

Record: 50-39, 2^nd place, 1.5 games back

Streak: 1 loss

The Quote: “Boy, he located well. We had him on the ropes that one inning and we didn't get anything." – Terry Francona, Red Sox Manager

The Rant: Seven seemed to be the magic number for last night’s game in Boston, appropriately enough, on the seventh day of the seventh month. Scott Baker tossed seven scoreless innings while racking up seven strikeouts along the way. The Red Sox, meanwhile, had seven hits against the Twins pitching staff (five off of Baker, two off of Brian Bass). In the first inning, both Joe Mauer (number 7) and Jason Kubel (not number 7) coaxed seven-pitch walks from Dice-K. But the most monumental statistic provided by the prime number in last night’s game: seven left on base by Delmon Young.

Yes, the correlation between the game and the number seven is statistical gibberish. Nevertheless, the seven runners left on base was a huge blow to the Twins chances of winning and Young’s continued youthful impatience was a big part of the reason why seven Twins vacated their respected bases for the dugout following his at-bat. As Joe Christensen pointed out, Matsuzaka had thrown 24-pitches to the previous five batters in the first inning (including the aforementioned walks to Mauer and Kubel). Yet Young did not retain any of this when his turn came. Instead, Young clubbed at the first offering by Matsuzaka, tapping it back to the mound with the bases loaded. Armed with the knowledge that a) Matsuzaka has labored to throw strikes historically this season and b) he is currently laboring to throw strikes in this very inning, Delmon Young should have been more selective.

"I was sitting dead-red fastball," Young said after the game. "That was a little bit up, and it got a little bit in. If it caught a little more of the bat, it would have been back up the middle. You've just got to tip your cap because he got out of the inning. It doesn't matter how you do it." Revisiting the TiVo recording and GameDay’s pitch f/x account, claiming that the pitch was “a little bit up” and “a little bit in” is like saying Tony Montana took "a few bullets" in the final scene of Scarface. It was up. It was in. "We've got a few guys who don't work the counts -- we swing," Ron Gardenhire said summarizing what should be the accepted sentiments exactly, "You take the good with the bad. ... We've been winning a lot of baseball games that way. [Young's] been getting a lot of hits that way."

Make no mistake about it Delmon Young has been one of the integral parts of the Twins resurgence, hitting .341/.372/.524 since June 6^th. In his Around the Majors blog, Christensen highlights that Young has been hitting .301 first pitch balls put in play so it is no secret that Young likes to take a swat at the first offering. So it isn't like it was a huge shock to see Young taking aim at the first pitch.

Typically this one of those games which I would vent about Gardenhire's mismanagement of the bullpen (similar to this). A move was necessary. Baker was at 94 pitches when the 7th inning ended and there was several well hit balls including Coco Crisp's flyball to right that Denard Span tracked down. Statistically, he gets hit hard from pitch 76 to pitch 100 (facing 298 batters, opponents had hit .329/.362/.529 off of him). The Red Sox, with Pedroia, Drew and Ramirez coming up were no punch-and-judy line-up. The eighth inning was just the spot to remove Baker. Guerrier was unavailable for the game since he pitched last night. Crain had given up four hits (two doubles) in his previous two outings, Gardenhire's confidence had obviously waned on Crain since his June 30th appearance against Detroit in which he failed to record an out. Throw in one of the two lefties? In Fenway? Yikes. That Green Monster is damn close with two righties scheduled to hit. Bass isn't exactly lights out but he had been doing well in recent times (.205/.222/.227 against past 45 batters with 2 runs allowed) but nothing screams out that Bass is ill-prepared to handle the heart of the Red Sox order. The Twins had also recently insinuated that Bass had earned the opportunity to pitch in higher-leverage situations. Good place to start.

Let's agree to call this one "one of those games" and get by it. Offense left a boat-load of runners on base. Bullpen faltered, sure. Sign of the apocalypse? No. It is unfortunate that the offense could not scrap together a run to support Baker’s outing (72 Game Score) especially when the opportunities presented themselves. This outing reaffirms that the Twins are positioned very well in the starting rotation and the lack of offensive output with runners in scoring position in last night's game is a prime example of what Aaron Gleeman was preaching.

The Links:

(*) Tonight's B-R.com game preview: Blackburn versus Jon Lester.

(*) Joey-Jo Jo Junior Shabado is the toughest out in the Majors according to Saberscoutings interesting PTO% statistic ("Pitchest Toward Outs"). USS Mariner's Dave Cameron has Joe listed as having the 15th highest current trade value. Here is the rest of Top 50 according to USS Mariner.

(*) The Star Tribune is reporting that the Twins are not looking to trade this deadline. "You're always looking to make your team better, and we'll continue to do that," Twins General Manager Bill Smith said before Monday's game against the Red Sox. "At the same time, you don't want to tinker too much with something that's not broken." Meanwhile on the left coast, the Padres General Manager Paul Depodesta is asking the fans to concoct a plan of attack for the Friars as the trade deadline approaches.

(*) Being born in 1981 (hence, circa 1981 in my moniker) I have little micro-introspection of the early 1980's Twins history - just the macro-stuff. The story of the Tiger's Dave Rozema failed attempt to execute a flying karate kick the Twins' John Castillo in a May 14th, 1982 bench-clearing brawl only to result in a season-ending tore ligament in his knee after he whiffed on Castillo was one that I was not familiar with. The West Michigan Whitecaps, in honor of Rozema, are hosting a bobblehead night with him in the standard Karate Kid position.

(*) Judd Spicer interviews Baseball-Reference founder Sean Foreman.

New and Improved: A Dissection of Lyle Kohse

This past offseason, Kyle Lohse shared a lot in common with 7.7 million other Americans across the country: he was unemployed and couldn't get a job.

Like an unwanted vagabond, Lohse and his agent knocked on doors of front offices only to find that there was no need for a career back-of-the-rotation starter seeking a 3-year, $24-million dollar deal. After the Seattle Mariners locked up Carlos Silva to the tune of 4-years and $48 million dollars in December, the contract request from Lohse appeared quite reasonable. After all, Silva, who was only a few months younger than Lohse, carried with him the same kind of pedigree. Silva was 54-46 (.540 wpct) in his six seasons of pitching while Lohse was slightly less victorious in his seven seasons in the majors with a 63-74 record (.459 wpct). Still, the phone did not ring. Up until January, the New York Mets flirted with the idea of Lohse being Plan B if they did not land Johan Santana. Alas, Mets GM Omar Minaya was able to package together a group of prospects enticing enough for newly-anointed Twins GM Bill Smith to swap the left-handed Cy Young winner in exchange. "Some teams said they were going to do some things, and they never materialized,'' Lohse said. "I know a lot of people talked about how I turned this and that down. I'm not going to get into what was really going on, but I think a lot of people heard a lot of rumors and assumed they were true.''

As pitchers and catchers report date past for Kyle Lohse without a contract, Lohse must have felt about as desirable as frostbitten teabags. Instead of wallowing in unsigned pitcher self-pity, Lohse took to honing his craft against NCAA opponents, pitching against Cal-State Irvine and Cal-State Fullerton and the dreaded aluminum bats. Reportedly teams like Toronto, San Francisco, Texas and St. Louis began taking serious consideration in Lohse as his asking price dipped to 1-year, $5-million. On March 14th, the St. Louis Cardinals, riddled with various injuries to the starting rotation, signed Lohse to a 1-year, $4.25 option-laden contact.

"He can make pitches, he's not out there just heaving it," Cardinals pitching guru Dave Duncan said after Lohse reported to spring training. "There's been times when he's going out there and had overpowering type games and there's been times when he's gone out there and you wonder, 'What's he doing?"' Twins fans will probably remember Duncan's inquiry most memorably when it comes to Kyle's performance. While with the Twins Lohse constantly alternated between very good starts and piss-poor outings. It was in 2006 when he only to produce three starts in eight with Game Scores higher than 50 (50 being the quality threshold). In that stretch he was averaging Game Scores of 33 and allowing opponents to hit .339/.400/.500 off of him in that stretch. After a 2.2 inning, five-run debacle at Comerica on May 16th, 2006 solidified Lohse's demotion to triple-A. This demotion finally opened the door to move Francisco Liriano into the starting rotation. The subsequent demotion was followed by a brief stint in the Twins bullpen then a mercy trade to Cincinnati for minor league flounderer Zach Ward (now being converted into a reliever at double-A).

In his 63 innings of work with the Reds, Lohse improved his control walking far fewer batters and increased his strikeout rate through the transition to the National League but was still hit fairly hard in his 11 starts (.278/.329/.426). The following season with a bad Cincinnati team, Lohse started the season 1-6, getting hit hard in his 57.6 innings of work (.318/.350/.502). Between then and July 25th, he fared better, eking out five victories while losing six and bringing down his opponents batting line to .247/.331/.402 in 74 innings of work. Cincinnati however was treading water near the bottom of the NL Central with a record of 43-59 and intuitively decided to be sellers at the trade deadline. Lohse was flipped to Philadelphia for minor league left-handed pitcher Matt Maloney. Philadelphia was attempting dethrone the New York Mets for the NL East title and was at the time in third place five games back from the Metropolitans. Though his record indicates that Lohse would finish 3-0 in 11 starts for the Phillies in that span, the team went 8-3 in his starts propelling them past the nose-diving New Yorkers by one game to win the division. "We had a lot of fun going down the stretch," said Lohse, reminiscing about his run with Philly, "From Day 1 when I got over there [to Philadelphia], it was like a playoff atmosphere every game. I can't think of a better time that I've had, because guys were competing and doing everything it took to win. We pulled it off. "

It is hard to see who is going to come out on top of that trade. If the objective to acquiring Lohse was to help get the Phillies into the post-season the mission was accomplished, however once there, Lohse was asked to retire Kaz Matsui with the bases loaded in a critical spot of Game 2 at Coors Field clinging to a 3-2 lead. Instead of maintaining the lead, Matsui crushed Lohse's offering to right for a grand slam on the way to a 10-5 victory (and later the series). On the other hand, Matt Maloney is proving to be a genuine left-handed pitching prospects, the value of developing a left-handed starting pitcher to a franchise is substantial. So far this season, the 24-year-old Maloney has struck out 93 and walked 28 in 100 innings of work at triple-A Louisville and recently shutout Rochester 8-0. Maloney could very well prove to be a welcomed addition to the already existing talent of Edison Volquez, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto as the Reds attempt to build a sustained winning franchise with affordable talent developed from within. The Phillies, on the other hand, with their aging pitching (30.8) staff currently led the NL East but do not have major league ready pitching in their farm system.

With 11 team wins in 18 of Lohse's starts thus far into the 2008 season, the Cardinals are should be very pleased with his low-cost performance. His 10-2 record with a 3.67 era is going to earn him All Star considerations. A phrase that might have been unheard of in his tenure as a Twins. "I feel like a completely different pitcher out there," Lohse said after his June 30th 7-1 victory over the Mets, the team that passed on him this past offseason, for his 10th victory of the year. "I'm not trying to guess my way through the lineup. I know what I want to do. It's worked out really well." Is the recent success of Kyle Lohse based upon a legitimate improvement or a statistical aberration?

On the surface, judging from his strikeout and walk rates coupled with his batting average on balls in play and run support dating back to his 26-year-old season (2005) we find little evidence to suggest that this season is anything but a fluke:

year	k%	bb%	babip	run support	average game score
2005	11.1%	5.7%	.312	3.36	48
2006	17.1%	7.7%	.341	4.56	43
2007	15.5%	6.8%	.307	4.45	48
2008	11.4%	5.9%	.289	4.63	51
career	14.2%	7.0%	.306	x	x

What we can ascertain is that his strikeout rate is lower than every year but his 2005 season as well as his walk rate. In 2006 and 2007 both the strikeout and walk rates increased. After his terrible 2006 season, Lohse's 2007 batting average on balls in play lowered and his run support increased. This lead to better starts which is indicated by his 48 game score average. What differentiates his 2008 season with the rest is that not only did his strikeout and walk rate rescind back to the 2005 totals, but his average on balls in play has been at an all-time low (.289) in addition to his run support being greater than any of the rest of the previous seasons. This has resulted in an average game score of a quality start in each outing. The additional runs provided by his offense has translated into more victories. Does this mean it is luck or that something in Lohse's approach has changed?

year	ops	rhb - ops	lhb - ops
2005	.799	.788	.813
2006	.804	.838	.757
2007	.786	.793	.779
2008	.709	.674	.754
career	.787	.749	.825

Looking back on his opponents OPS (on-base plus slugging) we find that the splits between right-handed batters and left-handed batters have fluctuated wildly. For instance, in 2005 left-handed batters did much better against Lohse while in 2006 the results were much different: right-handed batters bested Lohse. In 2007 right-handed batters repeated but did not generate enough of a difference to consider it that significant of a split. This year left-handed batters are doing better but are failing to hit better against him this year than any other year. How has his pitch selection varied from year to year?

year	fastball	slider	change	curve	cut
	usage | mph	usage | mph	usage | mph	usage | mph	usage | mph
2005	54% | 91.6	23% | 85.2	11% | 82.2	1% | 78.0	1% | 88.2
2006	53% | 91.9	22% | 85.0	14% | 83.1	0% | 77.3	6% | 88.7
2007	52% | 90.8	23% | 84.9	18% | 82.3	6% | 75.2	0% | 0
2008	59% | 90.1	23% | 83.5	10% | 82.7	6% | 75.5	0% | 0

After landing late in the spring with the Cardinals, Lohse has made some adjustments under the Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan's tutelage, a pitching professor that has been able to squeeze more out of his pitchers than anyone else. One of the biggest alterations was focusing more on locating the fastball better and a serious change-up reduction. It would behoove him to do as such considering that the slider and the change have been thrown at the same velocity. This would mean that his change-up is basically a hanging slider.

year	fastball	slider	change	curve	cut
	rhb | lhp	rhb | lhp	rhb | lhb	rhb | lhb	rhb | lhb
2005	53% | 54%	28% | 16%	6% | 16%	2% | 1%	1% | 2%
2006	52% | 53%	29% | 12%	7% | 21%	1% | 0%	5% | 7%
2007	54% | 49%	25% | 20%	14% | 22%	5% | 7%	0% | 0%
2008	59% | 59%	36% | 7%	3% | 20%	2% | 12%	0% | 0%

The Cardinals and Dave Duncan reestablished Lohse's confidence in his fastball. So far this season, Lohse is throwing his fastball nearly 60% of the time to both right-handed and left-handed batters. This has led to him working ahead in the count getting strike one on the first pitch 64% of the time, an accomplishment he flirted with in 2006 when he started with a strike 63% of the time. The remainder of his career he was getting strike one on the first pitch 62% of the time or less. His approached to right-handers once he achieved strike one was to bust them with the slider, through the pitch that breaks away from their swings 36% of the time. He essentially uses the same formula with left-handed batters with the exception that he exchanges the slider (a pitch that would break into the swing of the lefty) for the change-up (a pitch that disrupts the swing all the same) but has the caveat of throwing the curveball more frequently.

Kyle Lohse will undoubtedly draw plenty of criticisms from experts that claim that Lohse's 2008 success is a false positive. When you analyze the first table, it is easy to make this assumption as well. Strikeouts are low and his batting average on balls in play is lower than any of his previous seasons on top of that his run support has been higher than it has been since his 26-year-old season. His velocity is also declining as he ages and presumably will be in the high-80s next season. But he is learning how to pitch and is pitching to his strengths (as well as his opponent's weaknesses) which is making his 2008 campaign successful. The multi-million dollar question is if Kyle Lohse will be this successful away from St. Louis if he chooses to sign a long-term deal with another franchise.