Game Notes #20

Twinks 5, A's 4 (Box Score)

• Game Score 43 - Livan Hernandez looked strong for 4 innings but couldn't quite keep Oakland's wolves at bay. For one thing, the A's lineup did what they do best: made him earn each match-up. In six plate appearances prior to the fifth had Hernandez throwing five or more pitches. The second inning Ryan Sweeney dinged Livan for an 11-pitch at-bat. This certainly could have contributed to his decline later in the ball game. With one out in the fifth, Hernandez gave up back-to-back singles to Bobby Crosby and Chris Denorfia (who by the way, has one of the game best incomplete fu machu's in the game) but go the other Cretin graduate on the field to ground out to Morneau. With runners on second and third, the surging Kurt Suzuki singled home both runners to bring the game within one. The fifth it was visible that Hernandez was laboring, but by the sixth Hernandez was on fumes. Walking Jack Cust, the strike out, walk or home run guy, coaxed a walk then Emil Brown crushed a two-run home run to put the A's up by one. After a ground out by Ryan Sweeney, Denorfia hit a two-out double and Hernandez was saved by The Coliseum's vast foul grounds when Jack Hannahan popped out to Mike Lamb.

• Twins are 5 and 0 when Hernandez's starts - The results are very desirable there is no question about it. Sure, everything about him is unsexy, including his strike out rate (8%) and bulbous head capable of stretch the hole in a cashmere sweater, but 5 starts and 5 wins is nothing to shake a stick at. Livan is averaging 50.4 as a Game Score over the course of those 5 starts which has undoubtedly led to several "lucky" wins. Three of those starts have been below 50 (the equivalent to a quality start) but the offensive production (5.36 runs of support) assisted in lifting the team to victory. Unlike Nick Blackburn who has pitched better in his outings (averaging 54 in 4 starts) but has been one run of support lower than Hernandez (4.11) and has been failed twice by his bullpen leading to a 1-1 record and a 1-3 record when starting. Again the results speak for themselves but I would speculate that Hernandez could hit a rough period as the run support drops.

• .154/.154/.179 - Last 9 games for Carlos Gomez. He is 1 for his last 18 with 7 strike outs and no walks. Stats blog indicated prior to this drought that without his speed, Gomez might be hitting under .150, after all his bunt and infield hits had been leading the league. Currently Gomez has 9 infield hits with 5 successful bunt attempts however this is growing more and more worrisome as he is offering at bad pitches and terrible counts as well. Gomez opened the first 11 games of the season by hitting .292/.320/.417 and keeping pitchers and infielders off-balanced with those well-timed bunt singles. "When I'm on base, it's like I got one run already," Gomez said. "I can steal second, and then the other team's got problems. I'm on second and it's a groundball, I'll be at home." While always a threat once he gets to the bathpaths (9 stolen bases on 10 attempts) but is having a tumultuous time reaching base. Judging from the pitch f/x sequencing, you will notice that pitchers have begun throwing breaking and off-speed pitches low and away to Gomez that he has not been able to lay off.

• 10-for-14 - Craig Monroe lifetime off of the A's Joe Blanton now thanks to a 3-for-3 night at the plate including the tying home run in the 7th - his third RBI of the night - and was a triple short of hitting for the cycle. Nice use of statistics Gardy: "Numbers. They can fool you sometimes. And sometimes they tell the story that you have to play out," Gardenhire said afterward. "Tonight was one night where he's had some success [against Blanton], so you play it out. It's just one of those crazy things in the game. No one knows how it happens. But he was on the ball."

• .267/.333/.267 - Jason Kubel's line against left-handed pitching after singling off of Alan Embree to score the go-ahead run. The sample size is terribly small but Kubel has proven somewhat effect against left-handed pitching in his 18 plate appearances against the wrong handers. Meanwhile, in 16 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, Craig Monroe is hitting just .071/.188/.071. It will be interesting to see how Gardy handles left-handed starters when Michael Cuddyer returns from the DL.

Blackburned.

Last night in his first major league victory, Nick Blackburn kept a very good hitting Indians line-up subdued. "We faced him a couple of times last year," said Twins masher and enemy of the Baggy Travis Hafner. "He throws a sinker and does a good job putting the ball on the ground. I had some good pitches to hit, but rolled over on them [grounded out]." Platoon veteran David Dellucci echoed Hafner's quote saying, " "Blackburn pitched everybody a different way every time they came up. He's got a good sinker."

Not everybody shares that sentiment. Some have already suggested that because he is a control-artist that lacks a biting 'out-pitch' that he is somewhat susceptible to left-handed batters. Over the first four starts, the opposite is true. In 55 plate appearances against right-handed batters, the opponents have been hitting .333/.370/.375. Lefties, on the other hand (punny), are batting .239/.271/.348 in 48 plate appearances against Blackburn. What's more is that all five of his doubleplays were started by left-handed batters. Minor League Ball.com's John Sickles wrote that "From a sabermetric standpoint, I am not enamored of the poor strikeout rate, but his control is sharp enough for him to help out as a fifth starter/long relief type. Grade C+." Conversely, Dave Cameron (USS Mariner) wrote at the FansGraph blog that "[w]hile this isn’t as sexy as blowing hitters away with 96 MPH fastballs or a power curve, the combination of throwing strikes and getting ground balls is a proven winner. This is the Aaron Cook/Jake Westbrook path to success - pound the strike zone with pitches at the knees, don’t put anyone on base without making them swing, and let your infielders do the work."

So far, that is the recipe for success. Certainly a 12% strikeout rate will lift eyebrows when attempting to gauge a prospect but couple that with a 2% walk rate and a groundball rate encroaching 60% and you get a major league pitcher. Blackburn has provided positive results for the team. In his four starts he is averaging Game Score of 54 - above the quality threshold - and has yet to yield a home run in his 25 innings of work. In those innings Blackburn has held a 58% groundball rate and only allowed solid, line-drive contact on 10% of balls put in play - his .329 babip is somewhat high for a groundball pitcher. If Blackburn is able to keep his groundball rate above 55% he will put himself in position of success. Last year, Fausto Carmona, Felix Hernandez and Chien-Ming Wang all finished with groundball rates over 55% and all finished with at least 14 victories.

Blackburn, like a Brian Bannister, suffers from being consistently overlooked because he does not produce gaudy strikeout totals or light up a radar gun. In the 7th round of that same draft, the Baltimore Orioles selected Joe Coppinger, Blackburn's rotation-mate in college. Coppinger never made it above high-A with the Orioles while Blackburn just finished a shutout of the Cleveland Indians in his 4th major league start. This trend would continue throughout his career.

As the 29th round of the 2001 amateur draft approached the Twins, the organization looked to pad the farm system's pitching portfolio. After all the Twins had used 13 of the 28 previous rounds to choose hurlers and it has been this philosophical mission of building around pitching where the Twins have found success. They develop from within instead of completing for overpriced free agent pitchers on the open market. 856 players had been selected before the Twins selected Oklahoma native Robert Nicholas Blackburn. Blackburn had carved himself a good college career at Seminole State College, a ju-co in Oklahoma that produced other major leaguers such as Eric Gagne and Lew Ford, but as a late round selection Blackburn's major league path was far from guaranteed. To date, of the 13 pitchers picked prior to Blackburn, only one of them has seen a major league mound, San Diego's Rule 5 steal Kevin Cameron who the Twins picked 13 rounds in front of Blackburn. This once again highlights the nature of uncertainty of the major league draft.

As a 20 year-old, Blackburn began his professional career at Elizabethton in 2002 along side highly touted 19-year-old Scott Tyler (who was the 2nd round pick following Joe Mauer). Tyler had the power and stuff to amass strikeouts by the dozens while Blackburn was more technical, relying on keeping additional baserunners off the bases and his defense to support him when groundballs came their way. As Blackburn sputtered to a 3-3 record in his 13 starts, Tyler whizzed to an 8-1 record in his 13. In 67 innings pitched, Blackburn struck out 62 and walked only 20. Tyler, on the other hand, struck out 92 in his 68 innings and had a 2.91 ERA in comparison to Blackburn's inflated 4.97. In 2003 both right-handers were elevated to then Midwest League affiliate Quad City where they experienced growing pains. Blackburn, in his 76 innings, finished 2-9 with a 4.86 ERA. He struck out only 40 batters in that period. Tyler continued to strike out opponents (110 in 103 innings) but walked 82 batters ending with a WHIP of 1.65 (Blackburn's was significantly lower at 1.24). In 2004, both Blackburn and Tyler began the season with Quad City (only now they were the newly anointed "Swing of the Quad Cities") but this time the experience proved to help the two pitchers win. Tyler finished the year 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 104 innings. Blackburn went 6-4 in 86 innings pitched with a 2.79 ERA. When the Twins shuffled newly acquired Francisco Liriano from high-A to double-A, the Twins opted to bring Blackburn up to high-A over Tyler to finish the 2004 season. Over the course of 37 innings, Blackburn struck out 21 and issued only 7 walks. He was hit hard, as evident by his ERA that was above 6.00, but he threw well enough in his 7 starts to earn the right to begin 2005 with the high-A team.

It was around this time that it became apparent that the Twins valued Blackburn's ability to disperse outs through groundballs while Tyler's "fascist" strikeout approach was leading to erratic tendencies. Plus, as many washed-up prospects soon discover, hitters can hit fastballs. In 2005 Tyler pitching in 118 innings for the Miricle and struck out 109 in his first season of high-A ball. Unfortunately for Tyler, he also surrendered 18 home runs and walked another 48 batters. He finished the season 7-8 with a 3.96 ERA. Following the 2005 season, the Twins packaged up Tyler with Travis Bowyer for Florida's Luis Castillo. Tyler failed to pitch above double-A for the Marlins and has since moved to the Athletics organization where he currently in the bullpen for the Texas League affiliate.

In 93 innings with Fort Myers that season, Nick Blackburn struck out 55 but only allowed 5 home runs and just 16 walks. When New Britain was looking for another starting pitcher, they pulled Nick Blackburn up. In his first exposure to double-A, Blackburn tossed 49 innings, struck out 27 and walked only 10. He had the lowest WHIP on the team (0.92) and only surrendered one home run. Blackburn tossed 14 innings at triple-A Rochester to finish the year as guys like Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano were called up to Minnesota.

In 2006 Blackburn pitched a full season at double-A New Britain and threw 132 innings while finishing 7-8 with a 4.42 ERA. The organization, still not convinced if he was a starter or reliever, had him start 19 games and relieving in 11 more. Because of these results, Baseball America did not consider Blackburn one of the organization's top ten prospect to open the 2007 season (they didn't even project him to be in the 2010 rotation). Blackburn did throw better then the standard numbers suggest. His FIP (3.97) was lower than his overall ERA (4.42), his strikeout-to-walks (81-to-37) was strong and his groundball ratio (48%) merited a second look at the right-handed prospect. This was overshadowed by Matt Garza who during the 2006 season ascended from high-A to triple-A, posting sexy strikeout-to-walk numbers (154-to-32) and an absurdly low WHIP (0.88). As Garza was striking out nearly 28% of all batters faced, Blackburn finished 2006 with his highest strikeout rate of his younger career: 14%.

Last year the talk of the organization was Kevin Slowey. In 2006, Slowey had climbed from high-A to double-A accumulating 151 strikeouts (26%) and only allowing 22 walks (4%) in 148 innings. This earned him the number three overall Twins prospect (Garza was considered number one). Making 20 starts and throwing over 133 innings on his way to a 10-5 record, Slowey continued his control-based regiment in triple-A, striking out 107 (20%) and walking just 18 (3%). This stinginess with free passes and the ability to get strikeouts obtained Slowey a call-up to the big club. At the major league level, Slowey discovered that simply pounding the strike zone does not produce the same results as it had in the minors - this time it resulted in 16 home runs in just 66 innings. In spite of that, Slowey still finished 4-1, completing the season with a 14-6 record split between Rochester and Minnesota. Blackburn, meanwhile, started the season with double-A New Britain on his third tour of the Eastern League but was promoted to Rochester after compiling a 3-1 record with a 3.08 ERA in 33 innings of work. In that short amount of time Blackburn had stuck out 11% of batters faced and walked only 4%.

While Twins followers fawned over the Matt Garza's and Kevin Slowey's in 2007, Nick Blackburn's stock continued to rise. Selected for the Arizona Fall League, Blackburn threw 22 very strong innings, striking out 20 and walking only 2 - culminating the season with being honored as the MVP of the championship game. Baseball America shifted gears all-together and christened the number one prospect for the Minnesota Twins, declaring that Blackburn had the organization's best fastball and best control.

Because he doesn't strike out large quantities of batters at a time, Blackburn's ability will always be questioned. Results will have to speak for themselves.

Notebook Dump

Twinks 3, Rays 7 (Box Score)

• In his previous three starts, Bonser had managed to strike out 4 and was getting strong with each outing - producing Game Scores of 46, 53 and 68 respectively. The offense had been uncooperative for the Twins righty who was only receiving 1.33 runs of support in those starts, this time however, it was certainly a different Boof this go round. His four lackluster innings complete with 6 earned runs and matched his walk total for the season (2) plus failed to strike out one member of the team that had 4 players that had struck out more than 112 times in 2007. The run producing pitches, including the home run to Eric Hinske and the rbi single to Evan Longoria, appeared to be up in the zone.

• When Brian Bass replaced Boof in the 5th inning with the bases loaded and surrendered a two-run single to Nathan Haynes (who replaced an injured Carlos Pena). Right fielder Denard Span charged the grounder hard and missed it on the turf allowing the runners to move up. Earlier in the game, Span lost an Akinori Iwamura line-drive in the lights. These fielding mishaps coming in the wake of the Ivan Rodriguez escorted home run in Detroit recently. As I had suggested in the Rich Becker retrospective, rookies will struggle in the Metrodome outfield, partly because of nerves (Span had come into spring training determined to become the opening day centerfielder) but mostly because of the Dome's unforgiving terrain and backgrounds. "I saw the ball off the bat,'' Span said. "As it came down, I went blind and could not see it anymore. So I moved out the way.'' It takes a certain kind of crazy to be an outfielder in Minnesota, hard to do if you have a family to think about. I do think that Span will progress into a sturdy player but having Michael Cuddyer back in right field will certain solidify the outfield.

• About 40 yards to Span's right is Carlos Gomez in center who has suffered defensively, less because of the leather but more because of his unbridled arm. "He always thinks he's going to throw everybody out," said coach Jerry White, who works with the outfielders. "He's got a lot of confidence."

• Bass also injured his back in an intentional walk to Eric Hinske. He's listed as day-to-day for the time being. "[The doctors] don't think it is going to be long-term,'' Gardenhire said, "but we're a little short now. We used both of our long guys, and one of them is hurt now.'' If Bass is headed for the DL, the Twins might consider recalling Santana return Kevin Mulvey to the team. In his 3 starts, compiling a record of 2-1, Mulvey has tossed 17.2 innings while striking out 20 and walking just 3. Interestingly enough, 17 of those 20 strike outs have come against left-handed opponents. Though destined to be a starter, it would be interesting to see Mulvey audition in a long-relief role in the majors first.

• Adam Everett might also be headed to the DL with his shoulder ailment and the Twins are targeting Brian Buscher to take his spot on the roster if needed. Buscher has absolutely torn up the International League thus far: in 54 at-bats, Buscher has hit 4 home runs and is batting .352/.407/.611. These impressive numbers should be taken into context as Buscher is currently getting everything to land as indicated by his .395 babip. This high rate on his balls in play suggest that his batting line will equalize eventually. What Buscher's role would be once he reached the Twins is unknown. "We've got [Nick] Punto and [Matt] Tolbert,'' Gardenhire said Thursday. "That's pretty good there. Maybe a pinch hitter off the bench, a lefthanded-hitting pinch hitter.'' The Twins should consider having Buscher dispel Mike Lamb from third for several games while he finds his swing. Though four of his seven hits have gone for extra bases, currently, Lamb is only batting .156/.204/.244 in 45 at-bats once again placing a dire offensive situation at third base.

• It's okay Livan, you can come out now too.

• F-Bomb Day tomorrow. Rick Anderson is saying that just one bullpen session after his start in Kansas City he has made some small mechanical adjustments and this has improved his slider action. Look for it tomorrow. If you haven't read AG's analysis of his first outing in 2008 you should. Then supplement it with Baseball-Intellect's breakdown of his mechanics. Hopefully Anderson saw this as well when he began his tinkering.

No Way That Just Happened...

You know that scene in Tommy Boy where David Spade and Chris Farley are driving along with what they assume is a deer carcass in the backseat of Spade's characters once-cherry car when suddenly the deer wakes up, groggy, yet alarmed and starts thrashing out the windows, seats and roof as Spade and Farley scamper into the middle of the highway to avoid the wrath of the deer? After the mayhem ended and the deer stood majestically on the hood of the trashed car then trots off into the forest at which point, seething with disbelief Spade sputters out "No way that just happened..."

Spade, of course, personifies every Twins fans that witnessed the inaugural game in Comerica on Monday night. For the majority of the game, the Tigers looked dejected, they looked liked a 2-10 team: Ivan Rodriguez misplays a pop foul to prolong the inning that resulted in several Twins runs, Miguel Cabrera pulled Carlos Guillen off the base on a routine throw from third, Clete Thomas over ran a Kubel line drive which scored more. After each miscue, the crowd rained boos on the lifeless Tigers. Then... they lifted their heads and blinked. They remembered that they have these big, sharp teeth and these big, sharp claws. Nick Blackburn experienced the wrath firsthand in the 6th inning. "Any time a team with that kind of lineup gets on a roll, it can get dangerous in a hurry," Blackburn said. "Against this team, any mistakes are going to be magnified. They can wake up at any time." Suddenly, there was some sort of roll-reversal. Denard Span escorted what would presumably be an Ivan Rodriguez extra base hit off of reliever Matt Guerrier but was converted into a home run when he failed to secure the ball in his pocket. No way that just happened.

Neshek was asked to rescue Guerrier for the second time in just over a week. On April 7th against the White Sox, Guerrier had allowed both Jim Thome and Paul Konerko to reach before Pat Neshek was asked to get Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzynski and Carlos Quentin prior to facing Joe Crede, who nailed a broken bat grand slam. Even though it was Neshek's slider that left US Cellular, Guerrier was burdened with the loss. Eight days later, a similar situation arose a few hundred miles east in Michigan. Neshek, after giving this game to the reeling Tigers, left the clubhouse without addressing the reporters, for the second time in the day leaving Guerrier out to dry.

After the second out of the Tigers' end sixth inning was recorded, 14 of the next 19 Detroit batters reached base safely. What transpired was essentially a repeat of what happened a week prior to Nick Blackburn, who in the 6th inning of the April 7th game against the White Sox, turned a one-run lead over to Matt Guerrier. Tonight Blackburn handed off a two-run lead over to Matt Guerrier. The once vaunted Twins bullpen has looked awfully mortal in 2008. Through the first 12 games the relief staff has been highly ineffective in late & close situation (as defined by B-R.com, late & close situations are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck). In those predefined situations, opponents were batting .294/.324/.441 with 10 runs score in 68 at-bats. Raise that batting line up a few points following the night in Detroit. Tonight was the first time Matt Guerrier allowed an inherited run to score when he surrendered a single to Edgar Renteria that scored Carlos Guillen from second. Inexplicably, Justin Morneau cut off the throw from Span which could have erased the hobbling Guillen had it been allowed through to the plate. Naturally it caught Renteria leaning towards second however there was a good chance the throw could have beat Guillen. There are certainly questions as to why Guerrier was asked to start the 8th inning. "We had a four-run lead. Neshek's a setup guy. If it's a three-run lead or a two-run lead, we use him in those situations. I would think Matt Guerrier could get through. At 9-5, I think we're doing OK there." Gardenhire said.

I do not need to reiterate the importance of lead-retention when it comes to a team like the Twins. In 2006 the Miracle Twins had a relief corp that held opponents to a .223/.276/.325 batting line in late & close situations. That season relievers combined to finish 26-10 with a 2.91 era. The lackluster Twins of 2007 contained a relief staff that possessed a significantly higher .258/.325/.413 opponent batting line in those same circumstances, they finished 20-18 with a 3.87 era. Through just the first 12 games, the bullpen managed to only lose the one game (the aforementioned Neshek debacle) but they have been substantially more hittable in the critical portions of the game, being touched up at .294/.324/.441.

Happy F-Bomb Day.

For the first time since the second inning of the game against Oakland on September 13th, 2006, Francisco Liriano will toe the rubber for the Minnesota Twins. Joe C reports that Liriano isn't nervous for his 2008 debut, however, Stan Cliburn, Rochester's manager, suggests that Liriano has to work on command issues. Cliburn has some apprehension for sending Liriano to the big club at this juncture. Jim Malendero wrote that "Apparently, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire had considered Cliburn's recommendation that Liriano pitch one more game in the minors, then rejected it."

Liriano is matched up against Brian Bannister who has become the Thinking Man's Pitcher. Bannister said that he is more prone to studying pitch f/x data rather than video alone because of the pitch detail. “Everybody can throw a fastball, but if one guy’s explodes in the last 10 feet and the other’s goes dead straight, there’s a huge difference” Bannister explained. “That’s where the magic lies: in tweaking your pitches in order to get the most out of your ability.”

It would appear that the Rochester manager believes that Liriano is one start in the minors away from being ready. The International League manager was going to limit to Liriano to a 100-pitch count if he were to toss for the Red Wings one last time. In his most recent start, Liriano needed 88-pitches to get through 4 innings. Extrapolating that, you would have to believe - if Gardenhire follows the same flight plan as Cliburn of 100 pitches - Liriano will be replaced in the 4th or 5th inning by Brian Bass. The numbers suggest that Liriano isn't nearly as dominating yet, his walk rate is high and the balls in play are more adept to be in the air rather than the ground.