Starting With What's Left in the Twins Farm System

The most expensive position to buy on the open market is left-handed starting pitching. This is the cause behind the Tigers, Braves and Diamondbacks all signing aging lefties to large, one-year contracts (Rogers - $8 mil., Glavine - $8 mil., and Johnson - $10 mil.). When it becomes apparent that there are no internal options, a franchise begins to overvalue the player and, in desperation, ends up spending too much for this commodity either through trades or free agency. Look no further for trade examples than the offers made for Johan Santana and Erik Bedard. The Mets are thinking of trading five of their top ten prospects while rumor has it that the Mariners have dangled Adam Jones as a bargaining chip for Bedard. If the Indians bring CC Sabathia into next season without getting him a contract extension, he might help replenish the Cleveland farm system with whomever he is traded to.

In the most recent example of abuse of the free agent market, the San Francisco Giants overpaid and are now committed $14.5 million dollars to Barry Zito in 2008 (which accounts for 16.1% of the total 2008 payroll). Prior to being signed by the cross-bay rivals to the richest pitching contract ever, Zito had a decent year on the surface: he finished with over 200 innings, a 16-10 record with 151 strikeouts and 3.83 era. After constantly generating similar results in his previous seasons with the A's, most assumed that Zito had the wherewithal to repeat those same statistics.

Following the acquisition, Peter Magowen - the Giants managing general partner - said this to the San Francisco Chronicle this during the signing press conference: "I'd say this is the most important signing we've had since we first signed Barry Bonds late in 1992," Magowan said. "It means that much to this franchise, to the future of this franchise. We don't make deals like this every other year or every five years. It takes a special kind of player to make the kind of commitment we've made. We're aware, I think, fully, of the risk involved of signing a pitcher to a contract as long as this one. But if you look at Barry Zito's track record, he hasn't missed a start in the last six years. When you look at his age, which is only 28, and most importantly when you look at his work regimen, which is very rigorous, in the offseason, those three factors mitigate the risk."

The Giants, an organization that has had its share of bad transactions (i.e. Pierzynski, Benitez), so it comes to no surprise that the top brass failed to compile an adequate due diligence report otherwise what they would have found that the left-handed starting pitcher was actually a number three starter in disguise. Cloaked in the confines of a very pitcher-friendly ballpark in his first seven seasons, Zito had both solid offense and defense assisting him to his 102 victories. His strikeout rate had declined since his Cy Young campaign, his walk rate had always been around league-average and, most telling, his era was consistently UNDER his FIP. This is often an indication of someone getting assistance through defense (which the A's had) or simply luck (low babip) rather than having overpowering stuff. To illustrate, Zito had finished consecutive seasons with FIPs of 4.46 and 4.94 but with eras of 3.86 and 3.83 (diff. -0.60 and -1.08) in his two seasons prior to the end of his contract with Oakland. In those same seasons, Johan Santana finished with FIPs of 2.96 and 3.09 and eras of 2.87 and 2.77 (diff. -0.09 and -0.32). The smaller gap between his era and FIP leads one to believe that Santana's low era has far greater legitimacy than Zito's.

Whether or not Beane was aware of this as the A's let him test the market, he probably knew that the going-rate for left-handed starters was too high to buy in free agency or even attempt to bid with the large-revenue clubs. Besides, the A's had left-handed prospects such as Dallas Braden and Dan Meyer who could possibly provide the same output at a fraction of the cost. To a money-conscience franchise like Oakland, that is life or death. The bridge between the two organizations couldn't be any wider. San Francisco has been absorbing money through the quaint ballpark on the Bay, while Oakland does everything it can from hemorrhaging money including trading pitchers Hudson, Mulder and Heren to maximize their return.

The Twins, meanwhile, have been just as capable of minimizing the need to scour the free agent market for left-handed starters (the one they did, Kenny Rogers, was relatively inexpensive). The ability to have left-handed starters allocated for their first six years of major league time frees up money that would have been spent on pitching to other resources. Aside from major league ready Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, the Twins have five bonafide left-handed starting pitching prospects ready to make the transition in the next year or three if Bill Smith decides to either a) trade Santana (which could bring us MORE cheap left-handed starting pitching depending on this partner) or b) keep Santana and let him be bid on for more money than the Catholic church.

1) Brian Duensing - 24-years-old - AA/AAA (2007)

In those two levels, Duensing finished with a 15-6 record (.714 wpct%), a miniscule 5.3% walk rate and a 17.9% strike out rate. He has made small struggles while ascending to the next level. In 2006, he began the season with Beloit with a era-FIP diff. of -0.01 in 70 innings but finished the year with New Britain and had a era-FIP diff. of -0.99 in 49 innings. This past season, the Twins had him begin at New Britain where he had a diff. of -0.11 while his stint in Rochester earned him a diff. of -0.79. I fully expect him to have similar results next year split between Rochester and Minnesota while in 2009 he could be a solid #3 in the rotation.

2) Tyler Robertson - 20-years-old - A (2007)

Seth's Twinkie Town Twins prospect poll has Robertson as the #2 prospect in the system and with good reason: he has been dominating his competition. At 20-years-old, Robertson finished 2007 in a league where he was two years younger (19) than the rest of the league on average (21.5) and still owned them with a 29.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. When contact was made, he was getting groundballs 52% of the time and he sported a 2.29 era | 2.33 FIP. If an era-FIP is any indication of stuff-to-performance, his in the Midwest League was -0.04. His eta for Minnesota appears to be 2009 (as a September call-up).

3) Ryan Mullins - 24-years-old - A+/AA/AAA (2007)

Mullins climbed three levels last year, making a pinnacle at Rochester. His overall 7-9 record with a 3.93 era does not do his season justice. Of 667 batters faced in 2007 in 155 innings, Mullins struck out 20.2% of them while walking 5.9%. Sure, some of it came at Fort Myers where he was older than the surrounding players but he also had good starts at New Britain where his 3.99 era | 3.40 FIP indicates that he threw better than his standard statistics reflect. A strong showing in AA/AAA next year and he might be able to make an appearance with the Twins in 2009 -- otherwise maybe a strong trade candidate for those less fortunate organizations.

4) Michael Tarsi - 21-years-old - A (2007)

Having already been profiled in the OTB 2007 draft review, personally I like his 68% groundball rate and 0% home run rate the best. Starts in A+ in 2008 but could make rapid progression if he replicates his 2007 success. Eta 2010.

5) Henry Reyes - 22-years-old - Rookie/A (2007)

Split his season between Elizabethton and Beloit. Did significantly better in Appalachian League than the Midwest league (but in his defense he only made 1 start in 2 appearances for Beloit). Finished 7-2 (.700 wpct%) with a 3.43 era. Good peripheral numbers, 8.0% walk rate and a 28.2% strike out rate, but his era-FIP diff. in Elizabethtown of -1.27 (2.87 era | 4.40 FIP) may be an indication that his success is short-lived.

Can You Hear The Drums, Fernando?

Typically I tend to withhold my opinion about these speculations considering they tend to be discredited before I can finish the second paragraph. Twins fans seem to be almost apathetic to new wire stories proclaiming yet another team has managed to make a package offer that never comes to fruition. Sure it give the bloggers the opportunity to disassembled the prospective deals but I attempt to stay above the fray and avoid the mlbtraderumor.com fodder and leave the full-time dissection to Gleeman, Seth, Josh and the Nicks. Then after watching some video clips of Fernando Martinez, I figured I needed to weigh in.

Depending on whose reports you believe, 18-year-old Fernando Martinez is either a) the linchpin prospect in a gaggle of four prospects to finally incite the Twins to execute the Johan Santana trade with the Mets or b) the most ludicrously overblown story ever uttered (supplemented by this NY Post article entitled "Just Say Nohan"). What has been offered, according to sources, is that the Mets, in exchange for Johan, are willing to part with the #6 though #3 prospects in system rated by Baseball America's rankings and #7, #4 through #2 ranked by John Sickels. That alone would be an almost complete decimation of the Mets farm system. However, intelligence says that if the Mets include Martinez (#2 in BA, #1 in Sickels) to the package, Santana would already be in Shea.

For those unfamiliar with Martinez, the Mets's propaganda machine had aired this piece introducing the nubile outfield prospect who was signed out of the Dominican in 2005. He was 16 when he received a $1.4 million bonus to sign with New York (Metsgeek has the full run down here):

-At 17, he spent the bulk of his first professional career at low-A Hagerstown in the South Atlantic League. While there, in 211 plate appearances Martinez hit .333/.389/.505. His ops (.894) was 174 points high than the league average. His play earned him a promotion to high-A where he had an additional 130 plate appearances and hit .193/.254/.381 and his ops (.641) was 60 points lower than the Florida State League average. In his first full season of professional ball, Martinez, still not old enough to purchase Skoal, finished with a respectable line of .279/.336/.497 (as a reference, Ben Revere finished his first season at 18 with .325/.388/.429).

-In 2007, the Mets started the 18-year-old Martinez at Double-A Binghamton in the Eastern League where he had 259 plate appearances and finished similar to his previous season's total but with less pop, .271/.336/.377. Despite the lower production, it was a very solid season for a player who was seven years younger than the league average (25.0).

When analyzing both Martinez's swing (which you can view here) his most similar comparison seems to be that of Curtis Granderson (which you can view here). Aside from sharing the left-handed batters box, both generate power from a balanced weight-shift at the front foot which plants early but the hands and rest of the body stays back. They share long, quick swings which will lead to strike outs (as is the case with Granderson). You will notice that one difference between the swings is the position of the bat: Granderson tends to hold the barrel closer to his shoulder while Martinez moves his around more then holds it straight up. I would tend to assume that as Martinez ascends in the system, he will be asked to keep his bat still.

Naturally the two differ in the course of which the they reached professional baseball. Granderson graduated after playing college ball and made his way to high-A as a matured 22 while Martinez first saw action in high-A as an pubescent 17-year-old. Statistically, to this point in Martinez's short career they have had similar learning curves:

	Age	BB%	K%	XBH%	OPS	lgOPS
FM (A)	17	7.1%	17.1%	32.8%	.894	.707
CG (A-)	21	8.6%	15.0%	30.1%	.896	.666

	Age	BB%	K%	XBH%	OPS	lgOPS
FM (AA)	18	7.7%	19.6%	25.0%	.713	.738
CG (A+)	22	9.3%	17.3%	36.7%	.810	.668

Both upon reaching the next level saw the strikeout rates increase slightly (2.5% increase for Martinez and a 2.3% increase for Granderson) but also an increase in their walk rate (.6% for Martinez and .7% for Granderson). Martinez's power decreased in Double-A - again, a league whose competition was seven years older (25) - and he saw a decline of 7.8%. Granderson, on the other hand, increased his extra base hit ratio by 6.6% - but in a league where he was the league's average in age (22).

Based on this information, we can consider the projection of Martinez's career to be that of a Curtis Granderson as a baseline. If this is indeed the case, I would consider it a very good trade (with the company of Gomez, Humber, Guerra and Mulvey) for the Twins. However, I believe that Granderson is not the equivalent to Martinez because of the age differential while making progressions in the minors. Because of his relative success coupled with his young age, Martinez does have the capability to be the kind of ballplayer you can build a franchise around.

Minnesota Draft Revisited: Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda (pitcher edition).

(You can located part one (offensive) here, part two (Tim Belcher) here)

After rifling through all of the amateur drafts records the past week, I was struck by how different the Twins organization may have been had several players over the years been enticed to sign. To be sure, playing the 'What If' game is like attending a strip club: it is fun envisioning the titillating possibilities but at the end of the day you are still going home to your girlfriend or wife (for better or worse). Needless to say the ability to alter the past is reserved for the likes of Scott Bakula through his quantum leaps, but, like the strip club in the aforementioned analogy, it doesn't hurt to look.

1983. r2.29) Bill Swift

Like Belcher selected a round before him, Bill Swift declined the lowly Twins' advances and remained at the University of Maine for one more season only to be selected by a team that was just as loser-friend. After pitching for the USA Olympic Team in 1984, Seattle picked him with their 1st round, 2nd overall spot and rushed him into the lineup in 1985 after two months in the minors an in ill-advised move.

In 1984 the Marniers had as much credibility as the Tampa Bay Rays do today. Since their 1977 inception, Seattle had not produced a winning team. Far from. The closest thing the Puget Sound had seen to a winner was the 1982 squad that had a .469 winning percentage, a 76-82 team that could hardly be called competitive because they finished 17.0 games out of first. What Seattle did have to give them hope (similar to the Rays again) was a young core of pitching led by Mark Langston, Mike Moore and Matt Young, all of whom were under the age of 25 in 1984 and homegrown. Swift was yet another prospect to add to the promise of winning seasons to come.

Rushed along after only two months in the minors, Swift, along with the rest of the Mariners, looked overmatched in the major leagues in 1985. As a 23-year-old groundball-inducing righty that started 21 games and accumulated 120.7 innings, his peripheral numbers were an indication that he was not fooling anybody. His inability to strike people out (10.2% k%) was further exacerbated by his issuance of free passes (9.3% bb%) and was reflected in both his 4.77 era and his 6-10 record, but his 65% groundball rate was reason to give hope in Northwest. These are telling signs of a pitcher who is heavily reliant on a defense.

In 1986, Swift pitched in even fewer innings (115) while shuttling between Triple-A Calgery and Seattle. At times, he had flashes of brilliance. On August 30th, 1986, Swift battled New York Yankees and Tommy John for 8.2 innings in a 5-2 win. Over his 8.2 innings, Swift struck out 7, walked 4, only surrendered 2 hits and had a Game Score of 83. The high point of his short career made a quick pendulum swing the other direction as the losses began to pile up. In fact, he suffered through a stretch of losing five consecutive starts to end the season. The extra work in the minors only managed to raise his walk total to 55 (10.2% bb%) while tying his strike out total of 55 (10.2% k%). Swift missed the entire 1987 season because of a bone spur in his throwing elbow. Upon his return in 1988, Swift's walk total (65) eclipsed his strike out total (47) and soon became a fixture in the Mariners bullpen, both because of his spotty performance and his inability to remain healthy.

In 1991, Swift was the defacto closer for the Mariners and accumulated 17 saves. The Mariners figured that they should take the opportunity to sell high on Swift. After the 1991 season, the Mariners had enough of the 30 win-40 loss and 17 saves that Swift had provided and shipped him to San Francisco along with Dave Burba and Mike Jackson for Kevin Mitchell and Mike Remlinger. The shift down the coast proved beneficial to him. Once he landed in San Francisco, Swift led the NL in era in 1992 (2.08, 159 era+) and followed up with 21 wins in 1993 and finished second to Greg Maddux for the Cy Young award. In 1993, he had a career high in strikeouts (157). During this period, Swift's control, arm strength and stamina culminated into his best season of his career. Arm troubles and high altitude (a pitcher's worst combination) ultimately led to the end of his career.

Obviously an underwhelming choice to analyze and "second-guess" the Twins on for not signing when you consider the trajectory of his career: one that had several seasons of mediocrity (1988, 1989, 1990), several of good seasons (1991, 1992, 1993), an equal number of bad seasons (1985, 1986, 1998), and one of outstanding quality (1993). If you subtract his 30-40 record (.428 winning percentage) while with Seattle between 1985 and 1991, Swift finished 64-38 (.627) with San Francisco, Colorado and once again with Seattle. Of course this is entirely speculation, to say that Swift's career would have taken a different path had he signed with the Twins one would have to make numerous assumptions:

1) That the Twins, if they did sign Swift, would allow him to develop in the minors.

2) That the Twins had enough mature starting pitching to not have to call upon him until 1987 or 1988. (Viola, Smithson, Butcher, Blyleven, et al)

3) There was an easily identifiable candidate in the Twins rotation to have been replaced. (Straker, Niekro, or Carlton in 1987, Straker, Toliver and Lea in 1988)

4) That Swift would have been injury-free (or close to).

1988. r37.961) Aaron Sele

The Twins tried for Golden Valley, Minnesota native Aaron Sele in the 37th round in 1988 instead Sele opted to attend Washington State University were he played with John Olerud and Scott Hatteberg. After his college career culminated with WSU as the 18th-ranked team in the NCAA, Sele was drafted by the Boston Red Sox with the 23rd overall pick.

Beginning the 1993 season in Triple-A Pawtucket, Sele was summoned to Boston after yet another solid beginning to his season. The 23-year-old joined 37-year-old Danny Darwin, 30-year-old Roger Clemens, 33-year-old Frank Viola and 29-year-old John Dopson and helped low the average age to 30.6 years old - the second oldest in the league next to the Oakland Athletics. On a team whose pitching staff was aging by the inning, the Fenway faithful were looking to pitching to turn the team around from a cellar-dwelling 1992 season. Sele provided some excitement to the 80-82 Sox by winning his first 6 decisions and finished the season 7-2 with a 2.74 era (era+ 169). He came in third for Rookie of Year behind Tim Salmon and forgettable Jason Bere.

Sele had several noteworthy seasons after a trade to Texas in 1997 (for Damon Buford and Jim "DUI" Leyritz):

-1998 with Texas. Finished 19-11 (.633 wpct), era+ 113, 17.5% k%. Selected to the All-Star team. Lost one game in the ALDS to the Yankees.

-1999 with Texas. Finished 18-9 (.667 wpct), era+ 107, 20.2% k%. 5th in Cy Young voting. Lost in his only start against the Yankees in the ALDS.

-2000 with Seattle. Finished 17-10 (.629 wpct), era+ 102, 15.0% k%. Selected to the All-Star team. Won against the White Sox in the ALDS. Lost again to the Yankees in the ALCS.

-2001 with Seattle. Finished 15-5 (.750 wpct), era+ 116, 9.5% k%. Won in the ALDS against Cleveland. Lost against the Yankees once again in the ALCS.

What is most telling about Sele is that he is heavily reliant on the performance of his team. When he had his Cy Young candidate season, his team was 95-67. When he had a 15-5 record in 2001, Seattle was setting a major league record for wins in a season. Conversely, in 2003 Sele finished 7-11 on an Anaheim team that was 77-85.

The Twins would not have been the recipients of great pitching considering they could not offer the kind of offense needed to support a pitcher like Sele. However, overlooking the small detail that the Twins lacked starting pitching from 1993 through 1999 (aside from Brad Radke), Sele was also a Twin killer. He had more victories against the Twins then any other team (which is more indicitive of the Twins offense in those years). Over the course of his career, Sele through 139 innings against the Twins and had a 17-4 record and a 3.37 era.

1967. r11.217) Al Hrabosky

The Twins took a shot for the left-handed Mad Hungarian in 1967 and did not sign. In 1969's draft, the St. Louis Cardinals snatched him with their 1st round pick (19th overall). By 1970, the Cardinals deployed him early at the age of 20 to the bullpen where he made 16 appearances in 19 innings. Between 1971 and 1972 Hrabosky pitched in only 6 games. 1974 was his coming out party:

-In 65 games, Hrabosky threw over 88 innings, struck out 82 (22.2% k%) and had an era+ of 123 and received MVP votes and finished 5th in the Cy Young voting.

-In 1975, Hrabosky finished with a 13-3 record over 65 appearances and 97.3 innings. He stuck out 82 again (20.8% k %) and had an era+ of 229(!), allowing him to creep up in the voting for both MVP (8th) and Cy Young (3rd). He also had 22 saves.

-In 1976, once again displaying dominance, Hrabosky finished with 13 saves and threw in 68 games. His strikeouts dipped to 73 (17.9% k%) but his era+ of 107 was still very good.

Having the Mad Hungarian would not have radically altered the Twins in any way. The Twins were pretty solid with Bill Campell in 1974 and 1976. Regardless, having another solid arm in that bullpen could have helped allivate some of the workload from a bad starting rotation in 1976.

1998 r17.499) JJ Putz

What's not to like about this one? Selected one pick before BJ Ryan (who did sign with the Cincinnati Reds), Putz opt not to sign and return the the University of Michigan. He was drafted one year later by Seattle and signed. Like most modern closers, Putz began as a starter in the Mariners farm system. Between 1999 and 2002, Putz was a decent starting prospect. He had a rough adjustment period in Double-A, where he went 10-19 with a 3.76 era. The front office in Seattle decided to reallocate his arm into the bullpen at Triple-A Tacoma. Putz adjusted nicely and threw 86 innings and managed 11 saves while striking out 60.

Brought up the highway to the big club for a taste in 2003, Putz finally solidified himself as a fixture in the Safeco bullpen in 2004, working mainly as a part-time set-up man (while obtaining 9 saves). In 2006 the 29-year-old Putz emerged as one of the top tier closers with his 36 saves in 78.3 innings and 102 strike outs (he was dispatching batters at an unearthly 34.3% k%). In 2007, he topped his previous saves total with 40 in 71 innings and struck out 82 (31.5%).

Obviously Joe Nathan is probably one of the best closers in this century, but had we selected Putz, it would have been considerably easier to show Juan Rincon the door.

honorable mention

2000. r1.31) Aaron Heilman

Has been solid in the Shea bullpen. Since 2005, has made 208 appearances and has a 21.1% strike out rate coupled with a low 8.8% walk rate during that period. Meanwhile Juan Rincon has in 213 appearances during that same time accumulated a 21.8% strike out rate and a 9.0% walk rate -- only to have been paid $2.52 million more for the same efforts.

honorable mentions of players drafted who never actually ended up in the major leagues but made a pretty good career out of news anchoring and football.

1988. r13.337) Mike Pomeranz

The Twins drafted Kare 11's future lead anchor out of Princeton in 1988... and he did sign so this one sort of doesn't jive with the predication of this list, but he didn't quite make it to the bigs either. He finished in High-A with the Twins and played in the Orioles systems in Low-A before retiring. Which is a shame because goddamn, would that hair have looked good on a Donruss or what?

1971. r39.771) Joe Theismann

A hell of an athlete, Theismann was drafted out of Notre Dame by the Twins in 1971 as a shortstop. Yes, football was his calling but you have to think that as Lawrence Taylor was snapping his tibia and fibia on Monday Night Football, you have to wonder if he thought that the diamond would have been a safer venue. (Note: If you haven't scene this clip before, watch the "reverse angle" shot of Theismann's leg and try not to spew. Then go buy Michael Lewis's "The Blind Side").

Minnesota Draft Revisited: Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda (Tim Belcher edition).

(You can located part one here.)

After rifling through all of the amateur drafts records the past week, I was struck by how different the Twins organization may have been had several players over the years been enticed to sign. To be sure, playing the 'What If' game is like attending a strip club: it is fun envisioning the titillating possibilities but at the end of the day you are still going home to your girlfriend or wife (for better or worse). Needless to say the ability to alter the past is reserved for the likes of Scott Bakula through his quantum leaps, but, like the strip club in the aforementioned analogy, it doesn't hurt to look.

1983. r1.1) Tim Belcher

The Twins chose Tim Belcher with their first overall pick in 1983. He refused to sign, pointing to the previous two seasons in which the Twins finished 60-102 in 1982 and 41-68 in the strike-shortened 1981 season, and was highly guarded by a bulldog of an legal advisor named Scott Boras. He didn't believe Minnesota was looking to field a winning team (which came to fruition as 1984's 81-81 record was the only season the Twins did not finish below .500) nor were they willing to pay the market rate for a 1st overall pick. The Twins felt that they could offer Belcher, a junior at the NAIA Mount Vernon Nazarene in Ohio, a low-ball bonus of $80,000 ($20,000 less than Rick Monday received in 1965). Negotiations were at a going no where and Calvin Griffith's front office went into full throttle p.r. mode, attempting to avoid the embarrassment of losing the nation's 1st overall pick.

Belcher's (ahem) legal advisor, then just a "baseball counsellor" for a law firm and not the super-agent of today, told Belcher to returned to college for one more season. Re-entering the pool in the second-phase of the draft, the New York Yankees selected him with the 1st overall pick in the 1984 supplemental draft and offered $120,000. Belcher quickly signed.

"I was close to signing with Minnesota but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades,'' Belcher told the media in 1984 at a press conference at Yankee Stadium. ''I don't really want to get into it; I'm a Yankee now. But eventually hard feelings did develop.''

Belcher would not make it to the Bronx as the Oakland Athletics picked him six days after he signed with New York on February 8th, 1984 as their Free Agent compensation. New York, along with just about every other general manager, protested the draft, which was redacted shortly there after, but Belcher was gone and reporting to Oakland in the spring.

"It feels great to be with someone,'' Belcher told the Ny Times. ''I would have come earlier, but I wanted to clear my mind out and make sure everything was together.''

The transactions did not end there for Belcher. Oakland sent him to Los Angeles as the player to be named later in the Rick Honeycutt deal. In 1988, Belcher became one of the best rookie pitchers, after starting the season the Los Angeles's bullpen, he finished 12-6 with 152 strikeouts in 179.7 innings and an era+ of 115. At points during the season he was virtually unhittable, striking out 21.1% of the batters faced and only issuing walks to 7.0% of them. Following his August 26th start, he had rattled off seven consecutive wins, reminiscent of Fernando-mania that swept LA in 1981.

For Dodgers he won one World Series start against the Athletics and two in the League Championship Series. The Sporting News named him the best rookie pitcher of the year as he finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting.

In the American League, the Twins had just wrapped up 1987 with the first World Series (and championship title in any sport) in Minnesota history. Subsequently, in 1988 with most of the offensive cornerstone players returning. In fact the majority of the same players that had contributed so much in 1987 were having career years:

- 28-year-old centerfielder Kirby Puckett, who had perhaps the best year of his Hall of Fame career, finished with career highs in hits (234), rbis (121), batting average (.356) and slugging (.545). The one black eye on an otherwise spectacular season was his baserunning: Kirby tried to steal 13 times and was safe on 6 occasions, ultimately costing the Twins potential runs.

- 29-year-old third baseman Gary Geatti had a career year in batting average (.301), slugging (.551) and his ops of .901 was the 8th best in the American League - earning him his first of two All-Star appearances.

-28-year-old first basemen Kent Hrbek had a career high in batting average (.312) and produced his highest ops+ (149). Oddly enough, in all of the improved offensive from the prior year, Hrbek actually had his least amount of rbis (76) since coming into the league in 1982.

Even with the offensive upgrade, the Twins lost 27 total runs from 1987 (786) to 1988 (759). Some point to the loss of Tom Brunansky, who was traded early in the season to St Louis in exchange for Tommy Herr, hurt the dynamic. In Brunansky's stead, Tom Kelly used Randy Bush (the best pinch hitter ever) and John Moses who ultimately could not replicate Bruno's slugging.

Unfortunately, the Twins had only two proven pitchers in the rotation, Blyleven and Viola, who carried them through the season and the series. They were once again deficient in the starting rotation Not satisfied with starts given to the aging Joe Niekro and Steve Carlton - a combined 84 years old - in 1987, the Twins turned to 24-year-old Allan Anderson, a left-hander who had spent the previous two seasons shuttling back and forth from Minneapolis to Portland, to become a member of the starting rotation in addition to recent free agent signing Charlie Lea, returning pitcher (or liability) Les Straker, and Fred Toliver. The 1988 rotation had as many question marks as it did in 1987. The results in 1988:

- Lea, just one of two major league pitchers born in France, finished 23 starts with a 7-7 record and an era+ of 85 in what would be his final major league season.

- Straker started 14 games and managed a 2-5 record with an era+ of 103. Straker's season is another example of why not to judge a pitcher by his era. Though his 3.92 era appears good, in 82.7 innings pitcher, Straker only struck out 23 (6.7% k%) and walked 25 (7.3% bb%).

- Blyleven regressed significantly from a pitcher who in 1987 finished 15-12 with an era+ of 115 to a 37-year-old with a 10-17 record and an era+ of 75. Also led the AL in losses and earned runs allowed.

- Viola, on the other hand, improved from a 17-10 with an era+ 159 to a 24-4 pitcher in 1988 with an era+ of 153 and won the AL Cy Young award. His strikeouts decline from 18.9% k% in 1987 to 18.7% in 1988 but his command was outstanding as he improved his walk rate from 6.3% bb% to 5.2% bb%.

- Anderson, though, was the biggest surprise of them all who made 30 starts, threw 202.3 innings and finished with the lead league in era (2.45) and walks/9 inn (1.65) and compiled a 16-9 record.

With Viola and Anderson having career years and an entire pitching staff that cut the opposition's run production down by 134 from the previous season, it was little wonder that the defending champs had improved their record by six wins (from 85 to 91). The problem was that Oakland was busy rattling off 104 wins to Minnesota's 91 and handily won the AL West. The Twins finished the season 5-8 versus Oakland. Two of those losses were contributed by Les Straker and two by Fred Toliver, both of whom are excellent candidates to have been replaced by a quality starter. A quality starter such as Tim Belcher, who finished 12-6 with Los Angeles and two post-season victories, could have easily been the elusive 4th starter the Twins were searching for. Instead of discussions of the first repeat championship team in Minnesota since the Lakers left, talks turned to rebuilding in 1989 where the Twins purged Blyleven, Herr and Viola.

For the rest of his career Belcher enjoyed moderate success. Between 1989 and 1991 Belcher had several good seasons (even receiving Cy Young votes in 1989) then spent 1992 through 1995 shifting teams (Cincinnati, Chicago White Sox, Seattle and Detroit). After signing with the Kansas City Royals, Belcher had two more good seasons left in him in 1996 and 1998 where he finished with an era+ of 127 and 111 respectively.

Oh, and he might be the only pitcher to have been the recipient of a roundhouse kick thanks to Chan Ho Park.

(For more information on the Twins' 1988 season visit Coffeyville Whirlwind).

Minnesota Draft Revisited: Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda (offensive edition).

After rifling through all of the amateur drafts records the past week, I was struck by how different the Twins organization may have been had several players over the years been enticed to sign. To be sure, playing the 'What If' game is like attending a strip club: it is fun envisioning the titillating possibilities but at the end of the day you are still going home to your girlfriend or wife (for better or worse). Needless to say the ability to alter the past is reserved for the likes of Scott Bakula through his quantum leaps, but, like the strip club in the aforementioned analogy, it doesn't hurt to look.

catchers

1993. r1.21) Jason Varitek

It is common Twins lore of how in 1993 the Twins failed to coerce Jason Varitek from Georgia Tech as the 21st pick overall (one pick prior, the Twins selected Pine Bluff, Arkansas native Torii Hunter). Instead, Varitek went back to college where he was selected as the 14th overall pick by the Mariners the following draft year.

Between the 1993 draft and 1997 the Twins had to use Matt Walbeck, Derek Parks and Matt Merullo. If one were to consider five years as sufficient development time, giving Varitek ample preparation for the big leagues, Veritek would have reached the majors in 1998 or 1999 (Boston brought him up in 1997). In 1997 the Twins had agreed to sign 35-year-old New Ulm native Terry Steinbach to a two-year, $5.7 million dollar contract. In 1996, Steinbach had a career year belting 35 home runs (in which his previous high was 16 in 1987) and finished with a .272/.342/.529 line. Meanwhile, the Twins relied on the 30-year-old Greg Myers - who hit 6 home runs and .286/.320/.426 in 326 at-bats.

Dissatisifed with the results, the free agent Steinbach appealed to the Minnesota front office who had just lost Kirby Puckett and had been offensively deficient in the catcher position since Brian Harper in 1993. Steinbach failed to repeat his previous production. A pessimist might point towards the fact that Oakland has since been labeled a hot-bed of performance enhancing drugs and that both Mark McGwire and Jason Giambi, two players allegedly tied to PEDs, were on the roster. A 35-year-old player typically doesn't have that kind of offensive outburst. Regardless, the Twins inked Steinbach to a two-year deal.

As Steinbach was re-acclimating himself to the Midwest in 1998, Jason Varitak was introducing himself to Boston after being trade with Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocum on July 31st, 2007 in possibility one of the worst trades of all-time. On arrival at Fenway Varitek found himself splitting time with Scott Hatteberg. A season later, the Red Sox gave Veritek the starting position and 483 at-bats. Varitek responded by hit 20 home runs and .269/.330/.482. The 1999 63-97 Minnesota Twins relied on a 37-year-old Steinbach who hit 4 homes and .284/.358/.391 in 338 at-bats. Had the Twins made proper reparations for Varitek, they would have 16 more home runs and an ops+ 16 points higher while being $2.63 million lighter in the payroll.

On the other hand, had we received commitment from Varitek we may never had the incentive to play AJ Piersynski and therefore we might not be discussing Boof Bonser's new found diet, Francisco Liriano's rehab program or whether or not to trade Joe Nathan to a National League team. Ultimately, not signing Varitek was a blessing in disguise.

2002. r12.362) Jeff Clement

So he hasn't seen much major league time yet (just 19 plate appearances with Seattle) and we do have a pretty good core of catchers (Mauer and Redmond) but Clement is possibly the best prospect in the Mariners organization not named Adam Jones. And having an embarrassment of riches in one position is a good thing.

The Twins tried to select Clement, the Marshalltown, Iowa standout with their 12th round pick, but instead he decided to attended USC in hopes of moving up several rounds. And he did: In 2005 with their 1st round, 3rd overall pick, the Mariners locked him up.

Baseball America had him ranked as the premier prospect in the organization in 2006 - only to be usurped by Jones in 2007 - but his 2007 numbers helped solidify him as an elite hitter ready for Safeco. After finishing 2006 in Triple-A Tacoma with 270 plate appearances, 4 home runs and .257/.316/.347, Clement returned to Tacoma for a full season in 2007 where he emerged as a left-handed power threat with 20 home runs in 533 plate appearances and hit .275/.369/.497. Most impressive though were his peripheral stats such as his high walk rate (12.0%), relatively low strikeout rate (16.5%), and good line drive rate (19%) all bode very well for a 24-year-old.

Had the Twins convinced Clement to sign, we might be in the midst of the same debate Seattle is having regarding where Clement belongs on the field. He is currently blocked by Kenji Johjima (and to a lesser extent Jamie Burke) and there has been some internal discussion of relocating Clement elsewhere. He will most likely start 2008 in Tacoma again but if his numbers come anywhere close to his 2007 totals he will be shuttled up I-5 in no time.

infielders

1987. r28.711) Bret Boone

Between 1993 and 1997 the Twins had no real need for a second baseman since Chuck Knoblauch was firmly entrenched in that position but Boone had significant trade value when he was moved several times in the course of his career that netted his former teams Dan Wilson, Bobby Ayala, Rob Bell, Denny Neagle, Wally Joyner and Reggie Sanders among others. Had the Twins drafted, signed and developed him like they had wanted to in 1987, they may have had a solid bargaining chip for similar trades in the lean 1990s.

His career numbers are good at first glace for a second baseman (252 home runs, .266/.325/.466), but with the exception of three seasons where he seemingly "injected" offensive while with Seattle where he hit 37, 24 and 35 home runs (2001-2003) and his first year with Cincinnati where he had a 123 ops+ (1994), the rest of his career is stunningly average.

Most Twins fans will reflect fondly on Boone's 9 singles and 3 rbis he procured in his 14 games played with Minnesota in 2005. Absolutely no love lost by letting that fish get away.

1966. r3.60) Steve Garvey

The Twins tried to get Garvey, a native of Tampa, Florida, in the 1966 draft. Garvey declined to sign and found his way to the franchise that he grew up idolizing. In 1968 Garvey was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a third baseman out of Michigan State (he had a duel football/baseball scholarship). Unfortunately, Garvey arrived in LA with a severe case of throw-the-ball-away-itis. In 1972, Garvey accumulated 28 errors in only 85 games. It got so bad, as Rob Neyer describes in his book "Big Book of Baseball Lineups", that when Garvey was manning third the running joke was that it was "Ball Night at Dodger Stadium". The Dodgers shifted him around the diamond to first base in 1974 where he emerged as an elite ballplayer being rewarded with an National League MVP for his 21 home runs, .312/.342/.469 season in addition to a gold glove.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, the Twins were milking the last remaining good years out of Harmon Killebrew:

- In 1972, the 36-year-old Killebrew hit 26 home runs and finished with a .231/.367/.450 batting line before steadily declining in the next three seasons.

-In 1973, Killebrew played in 69 games and the majority of time Joe Lis was playing first base and hit .245/.325/.403 with 9 home runs.

-In 1974, Killebrew played in just 33 games at first while Craig Kusick was the starter who replicated Lis's line at .239/.353/.403 with 8 home runs.

-By 1975, the Killebrew era ended in Minnesota and the next few seasons Kusick and Rod Carew split time at first. The 29-year-old Carew hit very well (.359/.421/.497) but without any home run power.

As the Twins were wallowing in offensive futility at first base, Garvey was a perennial MVP candidate for the remainder of the 1970s. Though never really a contender between 1972 and 1975, by 1976 the Twins finished 5.0 games behind Oakland and Kansas City in the AL West. Garvey added nearly 3 marginal wins to the Los Angeles Dodgers with his bat alone. Had he been with Minnesota, this may have been enough offense to propel the Twins ahead of both the A's and Royals. After 1976, the Twins once again faded from pennant contention.

(Note: It is hard to estimate how many extra children would have been fathered by Garvey had he signed with the Twins.)

outfielders

1992. r38.1074) Gary Matthews Jr.

Yes, Torii Hunter's future outfield mate in Anaheim was selected by the Twins in 1992. Declining to sign, Matthews re-entered the draft only to be selected in 1993 by San Diego in the 13th round. Since coming up with the Padres in 1999, Matthews has spent nine seasons with seven different teams and did not receive ample playing time until 2001 at the rip age of 26. Matthews made a name for himself with his glove in center with Texas making Web Gem catches meanwhile his offensive has been grossly overrated due to the 2006 season's output.

From 2000 to 2005 the Twins had possibility one of the better defensive outfield combinations in the American League. Torii Hunter, Matt Lawton, Jacque Jones as the nucleus along with Dusty Kielmohr, Shannon Stewart and Lew Ford offering support after Lawton was traded. Had Matthews been placed in the rotation during that time as well, flyballs hit at the Dome may never have reached the turf the entire season and the highlight reel would be cranking out Web Gems.

Offensively, Matthews would have been a downgrade from Lawton, Jones or Stewart.

offensive honorable mentions

1993. r37.1045) Emil Brown: Good right-handed utility player. Rule 5 draft pick from Oakland to Pittsburgh. Too many at-bats with Kansas City, not enough with Pittsburgh. Hits lefties ok (.264/.338/.439).

1994. r11.295) David Dellucci: Drafted by Baltimore a year after the Twins then nabbed by the Diamondbacks in the expansion draft. Obvious platoon candidate. Hits righties well (.263/.355/.464). The lefties? Er, not so much (.204/.269/.310). The Twins had no real need for him, we'll see if Cleveland does.

2002. r8.242) Adam Lind: Good minor league numbers so far. Had two stints with the Blue Jays where he consistently hit line drives at a 20% clip.