Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game 3)

Game: Twinks 5, Yanks 4

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 3-0

The Quote: "[The Yankees] went out and got a bunch more good players," Gardenhire said after the game on Friday. "It's just amazing, really. It's amazing a team can do that. Not one, two, (but) three. Just amazing. I still don't think they're done. I really don't think they're done. I think there's one more guy out there that eventually, someone's going to say (sign him). That's just my thought."

The Notes:

 

• Starter Scott Baker's numbers were less than spectacular in his first start of the spring - two innings, six hits, three earned runs, a home run and no strikeouts - yet the projected front of the rotation starter was unfazed.   "At this point in my career, I'm just trying to make pitches and hit spots, like I was trying to do today," Baker told reporters.  After turning in a 11-4 record with a 3.79 FIP in 28 starts, Baker made some great progess - raising his K/9 from 6.39 in 2006 nearly a full strikeout to 7.36 in 2008.  So it is no small wonder that he was able to whittle his ERA down from 4.26 in 2007 to 3.45 in 2008.  One of the biggest contributions towards his ERA decrease however was from the added outfield coverage provided by having Carlos Gomez and Denard Span patrolling.  In 2007, Baker had a batting average on balls in play of .167 on his flyballs the following year it was at .113.  If one of the two are removed from the equation in 2009, expect to see Baker, whose flyball percentage hoovers around 45% on his career, to have his ERA creep back up towards 4.00. 
• Delmon Young went 2-for-2 to bring his spring total to 3-for-4.  Young's three hits have all been singles so it appears to be a continuation of his 2008 season.  As I stated yesterday in regards to Brian Buscher's early spring power, it is the slugging percentage that is a telltale sign of progession.  Keep monitoring Young's slugging to see if it makes any strides forward.
• Former Twin and current Mets hopeful Bobby Kielty has decided to ditch his swing from the left-side of the plate and concentrate on his right-handed stroke.  The decision is a sound one.  At this point in his career, the 32-year-old Kielty will be a right-handed hitting specialist and a part-time role player.  In his major league career, Kielty has hit .296/.379/.503 from the right-side of the dish and hit a paltry .228/.329/.348 from the left-side.  Kielty is competing with utility player Marlon Anderson who hit .210/.255/.275 in 138 at bats in 2008 with the Mets.  If the Mets do not carry him, there will be plenty of ballclubs looking for a part-time player that can mash left-handed pitching.
• The White Sox continue to emote encouraging remarks about the newly acquired Bartolo Colon:  "[From] the reports I was getting on Colon early when we first acquired him, the first day I saw him do his throwing program, I thought he was throwing the ball OK, better than what I thought he would be," commented White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper.  I just want to make this abundantly clear: THIS MAN has the opportunity to be the White Sox fourth starter.
• After coming up in the minor leagues as a catcher/first baseman and playing most of his 330 major league games as either a first baseman or a designated hitter, the Cleveland Indians are shifting Ryan Garko to left field this spring to see if it is a fit.  With a rotation that projects to have a lot of left-handed pitching, Garko will be busy covering more real estate than he has ever done before.
• The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto has a great column on the flash-in-the-pan once known as Super Joe Charboneau.
• Even with the optimism from manager Jim Leyland, the Tigers' Dontrelle Willis still had a rough introduction to his spring season.  “I’m really excited about it,” Leyland said before the game. “I’m going to downplay everything all spring until we figure out who No. 5 is going to be, but I’m really looking forward to this one.”  In one inning of work, Willis gave up four runs (two earned), one four-pitch walk and no strikeouts.

 

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game #2)

Game: Twins 10, Red 4

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 2-0

  

 

The Notes:

 

• Though it is too early to say if he plans on making this a trend, Brian Buscher has opened spring training at a torrid pace.  In the first two games, he has gone 4-for-5 with two extra base hits including a two-run home run.  Unseeded third base candidate transplanted a Francisco Cordero offering in the top of the fourth to give the Twins an early lead (ESPN says it was in the fourth inning off of Cordero, PiPress's Phil Miller says it was in the second against Micah Owings, so, uh...yeah).  Most analysts will tell you that there is very little to derive from these spring training contests.  John Dewan found that there is a better than normal correlation better a player's spring performance and a potential step-forward in the coming season.  Specifically, Dewan notes that if a player has a spring in which the ballplayer's slugging percentage is .200 points or more above his lifetime slugging percentage, that player is poised for a breakout season.  Naturally, it is still premature, but keep an eye on Buscher's slugging percentage this spring.
• Phil Humber was the first of the bullpen candidates as Boof Bonser's replacement to falter.  Humber was roughed up for four hits and four earned runs while failing to record a strikeout in his first outing of the spring. "Humber couldn't finish anything off. He couldn't get the ball down. We'll work on that," commented Ron Gardenhire. 
• This column is almost past its expiration date but I caught a quick blurb in Jim Souhan's piece on the crowded Twins outfield situation.  Souhan's line reads: "If only this were the biggest problem the 2009 Twins face -- too much talent in one outfield for a franchise that not so long ago was handing at-bats to the platoon of Dustan Mohr and Bobby Kielty, an ancient Otis Nixon, or the regrettable Alex Cole. [italics mine]"  Regrettable?  The only thing regrettable about Alex Cole is that his leg wasn't made out of titanium when he snapped his right leg in Milwaukee in 1995.  Up until that point in the season, Cole was hitting .360/.422/.493 with six extra base hits in 75 at bats.  With him and Chuck Knoblauch headlining the batting order, the Twins seemed to have constant baserunners.  A cheap free agent signing the season prior, Cole had a solid 1994, hitting .296/.375/.403 with four home runs in 398 plate appearances.  Please, Mr Souhan, use Baseball-Reference.com before you publish your column!
• ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers are close to signing former Twin Doug Mientkiewicz to a minor league contract.  The power is gone (if it ever was there) for Mientkiewicz, which playing in the spacious Dodger Stadium will work well.  Mientkiewicz can still work a count for a walk and not strikeout making him a valuable pinch hitter/part-time first baseman -- batters that can walk more than they strikeout are good commedity to have.  In 2008 while playing for a bad Pittsburgh team, Mientkiewicz was asked to vacate his comfort zone at first and man third and play the outfield yet he still managed to have a .374 on-base percentage in 334 plate appearances.  The Dodgers should use him as a pinch hitting and a late-innings defensive replacement for James Loney at first. 
• The Indians new closer Kerry Wood is spending the first few days of spring training held off the mound due to a sore back.  Wood does not seemed concern about the back at this point.  "We got a long spring," the 32-year-old Wood told reporters,"If there's a silver lining it's that we got the extra week to do what we have to do to get it ready." As I had wrote a few days ago, Wood has some of the best stuff of any closer in the game last year.  Undoubtedly, when healthy, Wood could be a steal for the Indians at $10.25 average annual value but his injury potential is the wild card that could quickly turn that contract into an albatross.
• Unlike the Cleveland Indians manager Eric Wedge who made a progressive comment about not looking at batting averages when it come to evaluating players, Ozzie Guillen has decided that someone has to say something that completely negates years of baseball research.  He told reporters in Arizona that he is looking for a leadoff hitter that can cause havoc on the bases. ''The Rickey Henderson era, the Vince Coleman era -- all those guys that can run are done, but I want to go back to that era,'' Guillen said. ''I want a guy that can get on base and make something happen. That's my style, but if you don't have a legit one, then you try finding a different way to do your lineup.''  Obviously, Guillen is associating the two with stolen bases rather than with on-base presence.  Both swindlers had 80% steal rates which was above the breakeven threshold of 70% for making the base worthwhile as leadoff hitters, however, the pair were far from the same.  Henderson was an on-base machine who had a career OBP of .401 while Coleman, on the other hand, was never as good as Rickey was at reaching base and possessed a career OBP of .321. 
• The Royals attempts to move Mark Teahen to second base began poorly, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports.  The Royals were given a six-run deficient in the first inning that was largely due to Teahen's fielding miscues.  According to Dutton "Teahen threw away a potential double-play grounder that could have ended a scoreless inning. He was a slow to his right on a grounder up the middle that resulted in a two-run single.  And he appeared awkward in trying to turn another potential double play that could have ended the inning at 4-0. Instead, a quickly tiring Ramirez had to keep throwing."  This is a perfect example of shoehorning a player that no longer possesses the skillset to handle - like asking Cuddyer to shift to second.  How did Teahen critique himself?  "I would have liked for it to go better," Teahen said. "But at the same time, it's not that big of a deal. You might note that (former teammate Mark Grudzielanek), the year he won the Gold Glove, made two or three errors in his first game of spring."  Yeah, and Grudzie had also been a former shortstop shifted to second base and not a third baseman-cum-outfielder before transitioning to second base.
• The Tigers have decided not to allow starter Jeremy Bonderman to pitch Saturday against the New York Mets, instead they are opting to have him throw a simulated game.  In 91 starts from 2005 to 2007, Bonderman had thrown 577 innings with 492 strikeouts while going 39-30 with a 4.83 ERA.  His season was cut short in 2008 after 12 starts in which he went 3-4 with a 4.29 in 71 innings due to a circulatory ailment that required season-ending surgery.  Bonderman's velocity had been slipping since 2005 and his strikeout rate tanked from his career-high 8.50 K/9 in 2006.  In spite of being brought up at the young age of 20 to the Majors, Bonderman did not accumulate that many Pitcher Abuse Points that would warrant indicating he was overworked. 

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Style)

Game:  Twinks 5, Red Sux 2

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 1-0

 

 

 

The Quote:  "He needed to clean up his habits. Just a young guy who didn't really have a plan yet. ... He was just stubborn. He could be lazy in his fundamentals, but it was also that line with Perk where it was just the way he did things. It's not that you're lazy. It's just that his mannerisms looked like he was." - Ron Gardenhire

 

The Quiz: 

 

You are the manager of the Twins and you need to take one of the two starting pitcher's listed below north with you as your fifth starter.  Who do you take?

 

Player A (2008) - 153 innings, 4.66 FIP, 69/32 K/9, 22.9% LD%

Player B (2008) - 151 innings, 5.14 FIP, 74/39 K/9, 22.3% LD% 

 

The Commentary:

 

At various points last year, Perkins pitched like a trust-fund baby, coasting through the season on the 6.23 run support bestowed upon him by his offense while opposing teams tagged him for 4.83 runs per game.  Did he earn his 12-4 record?  No, not really.  He was not deserving of his 4.41 ERA either when you consider his 5.14 fielding independent metric.  You supply 2008 Perkins with league average run support and his record would began to equalize like the scales of justice.  The reality is that if Perkins continues to pitch as he did in 2008, his 2009 will see an inverse of his record and an ERA north of 5.00.   

    In 2008, Perkins had a high line drive rate (22%), a large frequency of flyballs clearing the fence (11.7% HR/FB), and a small amount of strikeouts-per-nine-innings (4.4). For most pitchers, these are not good indicators.  They add up to crooked numbers.  Fortunately for Perkins, his minor league track record may suggest that these numbers are in for a change in 2009.  

    According to minorleaguesplits.com, in 311.3 career innings charted (he has thrown over 367 MiLB innings), Perkins has maintained a line drive rate of 16.0%, well below his totals in 2008.  Over the course of his developmental career, Perkins was about 40% each ground ball/fly ball making him neither type of pitcher.  Because he is such a neutral-type pitcher, it stands to reason that his batted ball statistics will eventually regress in 2009.  

    If there was one area of pitching in which Perkins was unlucky, it would have been in having to watch flyballs sneak over the fence and it certainly seemed that he had to do it a lot considering that he allowed nine home runs in a five game stretch at the end of the year (amazingly the Twins won three of those games).  Nevertheless, Perkins had 11.7% of his flyballs carry over for home runs while the rest of the league only had to watch 8.7%.  Perkins, because he is not necessarily a fly ball pitcher, should see his HR/FB percentage decrease in 2009. 

    Gifted with a low-90's fastball and one that is throw against the earth's rotation, Perkins lit up the minor leagues, striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings.  In his brief encounters with major league hitting as a reliever in 2006 and 2007, Perkins showed that he could induce empty swings.  After shoulder problems in 2007 sidetracked his progress, Perkins was giving a starting role.  On the course to throwing more innings then he has in any given season, Perkins saw his strikeout totals sink.  At the conclusion of the season, he had struck out just 4.4 batters per nine innings.  Given that he was one season removed with arm problems and has a minor league track record of striking batter's out, Perkins stands a good chance of inflating that 4.4 K/9. G

    Given these factors, 2009 looks like it has potential for Glen Perkins. 

 

The Stat:

 

With a minimum of 150 innings pitched, the top ten lowest K/9 read as such:

 

Pitcher	K/9	W-L
L. Hernandez	3.35	13-11
K. Kendrick	3.93	11-9
C. Silva	4.05	4-15
A. Cook	4.09	16-9
P. Byrd	4.10	11-12
J. Garland	4.12	14-8
Z. Duke	4.23	5-14
K. Rogers	4.25	9-13
S. Feldman	4.40	6-8
G. Perkins	4.44	12-4

 

    You want to know what all of the pitchers in this list with winning records had in common?  Run support above league-average (4.78).  Glen Perkins and Livan Hernandez had the two highest amounts of run support, above six runs per start.  The Phillies Kyle Kendrick was close to that with 5.93 runs per start.  Poor Paul Byrd somehow managed to eek out 11 victories while recieving 3.99 runs per game of support.  The point is, pitchers that have a low strikeout rate find themselves on the mercy of their offenses.  Unfortunately, the offense does not have any control over which starting pitcher they provide more runs to from year-to-year.  Needless to say, Perkins is going to have to make bats miss if he wants have a winning record in 2009.  

 

The Notes:  

 

• Wednesday's lineup may have been an early indicator of how Gardenhire might construct his lineup if he were to use Michael Cuddyer over Denard Span in right field on certain days. Simply going off of last year's numbers, Alexi Casilla (.333 OBP) is a much more suitable -- yet far from ideal -- candidate for the leadoff spot over Carlos Gomez (.296 OBP) (assuming he would be in center instead of Jason Pridie). 
• The Twins accumulated 11 hits but just two extra base hits: Justin Morneau and Brian Buscher each had a double. 
• Sigh. Nick, now you are being just effin' stubborn.  
• The Twins signed former Royals prospect Justin Huber to a minor league contract on Wednesday.  Huber, an native Australian, was originally signed by the New York Mets as an amateur free agent catcher in 2000 but was traded to the Kansas City Royals for utility man Jose Bautista (the Mets then flipped Bautista with Ty Wigginton and minor league reliever Matt Peterson for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger).  Huber had a great introduction to professional baseball, hitting .314/.381/.528 with 7 home runs while in rookie ball in 2001.  The following season he split the year better the Mets' Sally League (A) team and their Florida State League (A+) where he hit .286/.368/.453 with 14 home runs in 430 at-bats.  Despite his defensive shortcomings behind the dish, his bat carried him in his third season, hitting .274/.337/.468 and getting his first Double-A action of his career.  His 21-year-old season in 2004 would be his last as a Met but he would prove that he could hit Eastern League (AA) pitching as he would bat .271/.390/.487 with 11 home runs in 236 at-bats.  In 2005, his first in the Royals organization, Huber performed at Wichita (AA) and Omaha (AAA) hitting .326/.417/.560 with 23 home runs, that they called the 22-year-old up for a sampling late in the year.  In just 78 at-bats, Huber hit just .218/.271/.256.  In 2006 and 2007, Huber received just 20 big league at-bats and the organization that hope he would secede Mike Sweeney as a power-hitting first baseman, finally traded to San Diego for a player-to-be-named-later in March 2008.  The Padres had him with the big club in May but he lasted until just mid-June, hitting .246/.303/.393, before they sent him back down to their Triple-A affiliate.  Huber, listed at six-foot-two and two hundred pounds, will certainly fill out the Rochester roster nicely, replacing the departed Garrett Jones at first base.  He strikes out a ton but has a very good record of mashing left-handed pitching, batting .332/.402/.519 in his minor league career against southpaws.

AL Central (Spring Training Notes)

Chicago White Sox

 

• Without the employment of Joe Crede, the White Sox will be evaluating the play of Josh Fields at the hot corner.  The Sox will have Fields starting in their spring training opener on Wednesday, giving him the early opportunity to impress.  Fields took over third base in 2007 when Crede was sidelined with his first back injury and he emerged as a power threat, hitting a very Crede-like .244/.308/.480 with 23 home runs in 418 plate appearances.  Injuries and the play of Crede and Carlos Quentin kept Fields in the minor leagues until July at which point he was recalled and hit a putrid .156/.229/.188 in 35 plate appearances.  His defense at third has been atrocious which he has been attempting improve by fielding ground balls all off-season indicates that the White Sox will probably start the season with a very weak link on their left-side.  Veteran starter Mark Buehrle echoed the sentiments of having a consistent player at the position, telling Phil Rogers "We'll definitely miss him. The last couple of years, when he wasn't out there, a ground ball would be hit to third base and I'd think, 'That's an out,' and then turn around and see it go into left field. Nothing against the other guys, but Joe gets to balls they don't. He definitely spoils you."
  • Speaking of Crede, Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers says that the addition of Joe Crede immediately gives the Twins the inside edge for the AL Central.  Rogers writes that "the signing of Crede, along with Nick Punto's move from third base to shortstop, should give the Twins the kind of solid infield that once backed Brad Radke, Johan Santana, Kenny Rogers and a young Kyle Lohse."
  • White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen on the loss of Joe Crede:  ''It's not pitching. He will make [the Twins'] pitching staff better because their defense will be a lot better. He will create double plays. He knows how to play the game. There is one player who didn't grow up with the Minnesota Twins organization, and he played like a Minnesota Twin. He's that type of player.  They will help him, yes. They got better? If Crede is on the field, they're going to be better. I don't think they'll win the division because of one player. They always had a good club and always will be in the pennant race, and you have to handle it the way we always handle it and see what happens.''
  • AJ Pierzynski chimes in regarding Joe Crede's departure and possibility of playing in the Dome: "I'm not a doctor, but I know when I was there [with the Twins], I know we had a different turf, but we had guys all the time that had healthy backs who were complaining about the field. Joe says he's healthy, so we'll see.''
• White Sox captain Paulie Konerko has indicated that he would be open to a trade if the team deemed it necessary.  Although the 33-year-old first baseman will be a free agent at the end of the season, the White Sox may want to hold on to him for the duration of the season as Konerko is a very likely candidate to have a rebound season.  Last year, while battling a early season hand-injury, Konerko had his worst season since 2003, hitting .240/.344/.438 with 22 home runs in 514 at-bats.  Konerko's numbers were thwarted by bad luck thanks to a suppressed .247 batting average on balls in play even as he hit line drives 21.5% of the time.  His average on those line drives in play was .583, well below the MLB average of .718.  If he continues to swing like he did in 2008, his numbers should revert back towards his career line of .277/.352/.491.   

 

Minnesota Twins

 

• Boof Bonser's arm ailments have officially sidelined him indefinitely this spring, as he will undergo exploratory surgery on his right shoulder Wednesday.  To me, Bonser was never going to be the late innings guy most wanted him to be.  Sure he had the velocity but several problem areas -- most notably, lacking the ability to get left-handed hitters out and pitching from the stretch -- would limit his success as a reliever.  His loss isn't as detrimental as losing Pat Neshek or Joe Nathan, it does however, create an issue of depth and now opens up a spot in the bullpen to compete over.  Philip Humber, R.A. Dickey, Rule 5 pick-up Jason Jones and Sean Henn all have the opportunity to win the now available position in the 'pen.  Of the four, I'd have to handicap Humber as the favorite, considering he is out of options.  Then again, Gardenhire has been infatuated with knuckleballers as of late and may consider bringing Dickey north.

 

Cleveland Indians

 

• The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes asked Indians manager Eric Wedge whether star centerfielder Grady Sizemore's sinking batting average was of concern to the team.  After all, Sizemore has seen his BA drop from .290 in 2006 to .277 in 2007 to a career-low of .268 in 2008.  Wedge responded well:  "Batting average, unfortunately for a lot people, it's only been really noted in the last five or 10 years, that it is somewhat of an overrated stat. There are so many other numbers that are more important to a team winning a ballgame -- that's all that matters.  It doesn't worry me."  Batting average has long been categorized as "overrated" by many baseball researchers since the 1930s but has only become accepted in baseball circles in the last several decades.  Though a substantial portion of the media still reports a player's ability based on his BA only, there are plenty other statistics that show true production.  If you were to rank those three season of Sizemore's career based on his BA alone, you would say that 2006 was his best, followed by 2007, trailed by 2008.  Sizemore's OPS for those season (OBP plus SLG) was .907 in 2006, .854 in 2007 and .876 in 2008.  Using a more reliable indicator of performance like OPS and you see that 2008 was actually a better season for Sizemore than his batting average would suggest. 

 

Kansas City Royals

 

• I have felt that the Kansas City Royals might be the team that surprises people in 2009.  According to the 1986 Baseball Abstract, Bill James found that "On the whole, there is an unmistakable advantage to teams that which finished well.  The difference is not enormous, but it is significant."  The Royals went 18-8 in September, finishing off the season the best in baseball and providing optimism to a fan base that had be deprived for quite some time.  If you buy into James's research, one would think that the Royals have the ability to improve in 2009.  Unfortunately, the team seems to make decision after decision that impedes their success.  The latest is the potential move of David DeJesus from the leadoff position to third in the batting order to accommodate for the newly acquired Coco Crisp.  DeJesus has been a lifetime hitter with a .360 career on-base percentage while Crisp has a .331 on-base percentage.  Clearly with DeJesus leading off, it gives the Royals better odds of having a runner on base.  What's more is that when the Royals won 18 of 26, DeJesus batted leadoff in 20 of those games and hit a whopping .388/.443/.565.  Ain't broke, don't fix it. 
  

Detroit Tigers

 

• Jason Beck, MLB.com's Tigers beat writer, noted the anticipation Detroit has for Adam Everett, hoping that his acquisition will shore up the defense that was shoddy in 2008.  Interestingly enough, according to Beck, in efforts to find the best shortstop available, the team consulted John Dewan's Fielding Bible.  Everett was by far the best defensive shortstop in the National League in 2006, his last fully-healthy season, but his injury-shortened 2007 and his painful attempt to perform with the Twins in 2008 makes me question how much the 32-year-old Everett has in his tank. 

Caustiously Optimistic

As the market collapsed on free agents, most available players found themselves settling for much less than they initially demanded.  After months of attempting to secure a contract with a guaranteed base salary of $7 million, the Twins and Joe Crede have agreed to terms on a one-year, $2.5 million (plus incentives worth up to $7 million).  The Twins proved that in today's economy that if you hold out long enough, the cream may sink to the bottom. 

 

In spite of his impressive home run total in 2008, Crede is far from a complete hitter.  Last month I forewarned that Crede's home run production should drop precipitously as a direct result of vacating The Cell for The Dome.  Because he will no longer have the benefit of the lauching pad in Chicago, it would stand to reason that Crede's 2008 slugging percentage will take a hit from its .460 mark.  Crede gained several home runs as an extreme flyball hitter in an environment in Chicago that escorted flyballs towards Michigan Avenue.  In fact, among those hitters that have at least 300 plate appearances, Crede was the most prevalent flyball creator:

 

Player	FB%	AVG.
J. Crede	53.7%	.248
J. Mathis	52.8%	.194
K. Millar	50.9%	.234
M. Thames	50.7%	.241
C. Pena	50.3%	.247

 

Crede's low batting average was in direct correlation to his flyball tendencies.  If he continues this elevated trend, it should be expected that his batting average hoovers around .250 or lower considering the MLB average on flyballs was .223.  Here's something interesting though:  Crede wasn't always a flyball hitter. 

 

Year	LD%	FB%
2003	21.7%	43.2%
2004	16.5%	49.5%
2005	19.0%	45.4%
2006	17.8%	50.7%
2007	14.6%	53.5%
2008	14.3%	53.7%

 

There may be several reasons behind this dramatic shift.  The first being that his back problems caused him to alter his swing, resulting in an upper-cut swing (as you can deduce from the chart above, Crede saw his line drives decrease significantly in 2007 and 2008 when he spent time on the disabled list).  The second would be a conscious effort to change his swing to accommodate for US Cellular home run friendly environment.  Whatever the reason for this change may be, Crede would stand to benefit more if he reverted back to hitting line drives more consistently,  which should be the first thing Twins instructors work on him with in Ft Myers. 

 

Some optimists highlight Crede's increased walk rate as an indicator that he has an improved batting eye.  His walk rate jumped from 4.9% in 2006, to 5.6% in an injury-shortened 2007 and finally to a career-high 8.7% in 2008.  There is no real quantifiable explanation for the increase: he actually swung at more pitches outside of the zone than in previous two years (29.2% o-swing).   One possible explanation could be that in 2008 Crede -- whose lineup position was typically eighth for the White Sox -- was often followed by the powerless Juan Uribe, inciting opposing teams to pitch carefully around the home run machine that was Joe Crede.  After all as Crede was slugging .460, Uribe provided the Sox with a listless .386.  Then again, it could be a case of a hitter developing a better batting eye as he matures.  Either way, it was these walks that helped him secure his second-highest seasonal on-base percentage (.318) of his career.  If his walk rate from last year was a one-season wonder and his flyballs continue, expect his OBP to dip again closer to his career OBP of .306. 

 

According to Fangraphs.com, Crede was paid $5.1 million in 2008 but was valued at $8.1 million, mostly due to his stalwart defense at third base rather than the power numbers that many focus on.  Crede's contract insulates the Twins from most liabilities, so even if Crede is only able to play 97 games and provide 373 plate appearances while producing similar numbers both at the plate and in the field to 2008, the Twins should get a very good value even if Crede season ends at the All Star break. 

 

 

Joe Nathan Breakdown

    In 2009, Joe Nathan will no longer find himself as the lone dominate closer in the AL Central.  Gone are the Todd Jones, Joe Borowskis and Ambiorix Burgoses, upgraded for high quality relievers.  The Royals' Joakim Soria made his grand entrance last year, racked up 42 saves in 2008 while strike out 25% of batters faced and producing a WHIP of 0.861.  Cleveland has acquired potentially the pitcher with the best stuff, albeit injury-prone, in Kerry Wood, who struck out 30% of batters faced and saved 34 games for the Chicago Cubs.  Detroit signed former Diamondbacks closer Brandon Lyon who saved 20 games in the desert before being transitioned back to a set up role.

    How does Joe Nathan's stuff, one that has made a living notching saves at the Metrodome for the better portion of the decade, compare with these and the rest of the league's closers? 

 

Name	FB_WHIFF	VELOCITY	USAGE	Zone%
J. Valverde	.273	95.3	61.5%	73.0%
J. Papelbon	.221	96.1	79.3%	72.7%
B. Ryan	.220	89.7	77.2%	67.0%
K. Wood	.215	96.1	71.1%	70.7%
B. Wilson	.214	96.3	74.9%	64.7%
J. Soria	.209	92.8	73.6%	66.7%
G. Sherrill	.185	90.4	71.5%	62.7%
J. Nathan	.184	95.2	61.0%	61.7%
B. Fuentes	.170	91.8	70.5%	65.9%
K. Gregg	.143	93.4	64.6%	62.4%
J. Putz	.141	94.6	49.7%	60.2%
B. Lidge	.137	96.1	25.1%	54.6%
M. Capps	.134	92.7	81.8%	69.4%
T. Hoffman	.132	87.8	62.3%	75.2%
B. Zieglar	.130	86.6	87.7%	66.9%
F. Rodriguez	.129	92.9	56.8%	61.2%
B. Lyon	.127	92.9	71.7%	67.7%
M. Riveria	.125	93.8	38.5%	46.1%
B. Jenks	.098	94.4	68.9%	67.0%
F. Cordero	.050	95.4	56.0%	47.4%

 

    This is sort of a misrepresentation of Nathan's fastball situation.  MLB.com's Pitch F/X system likes to categorize one of his fastballs as a "splitter" (this categorization should lend some indication as to what sort of action this pitch has).  In truth, the closer has two different fastballs he likes to deploy, one just happens to have a downward burst.  The first of which is a straight four-seamed fastball, which typically registers high velocity and has far greater contact made (a lowly .100 WHIFF).  The second type is a two-seamed fastball that has a strong sinking motion.  In terms of fastballs, the sinking variety is superior at making bats miss.  In 2007, Nathan's WHIFF average on the sinking fastball was .248.  This past season the WHIFF was at .245.  Combining the two fastballs it results in an overall fastball WHIFF of .184.  If he were to rely on the sinking version alone, his WHIFF would rank second behind only Houston's Jose Valverde. 

 

    Nevertheless, according to the chart above Nathan's fastball stands up fairly well, 8th out of 20 closers listed.  Ahead of him are power arms in Valvarde, Jonathon Papelbon, Kerry Wood and Brian Wilson (all above 95-mph).  Joakim Soria's fastball has some filthy movement while both BJ Ryan and George Sherill benefit from throwing against the earth's rotation (read: they're left-handed).  What separates Nathan from the Woods and the Papelbons is in his use of the pitch.  Both Papelbon and Wood are predominately fastball pitchers, both throwing their fastball more than 70% of the time but also attacking the strike zone as well.  Nathan, on the other hand, does not use his fastball nearly as much - despite having similar velocity - and does not exercise as much zone precision. 

 

    Nathan's secondary, or rather his out pitch, is his slider.  After setting up opposing batters with one of his two types of fastball, Nathan issues a sit-on-down, hard-sweeping slider that touches the upper 80's and incites numerous empty swings.  Even though it leaves a stream of opponents muttering to themselves on the way back to the dugout, of the slider-featuring closers, Nathan's slider hardly receives top honors.  That privilege goes to Brad Lidge.  Lidge, as you will see, has the dirtiest sliders in the league.  Referencing the fastball table above, Lidge throws his fastball only a quarter of the time while most tend to use it two-thirds of the time, but Lidge is so confident in his slider that he throws it over half of the time.  Thrown in the mid-80s, Lidge's slider has a .496 WHIFF average.  Another way to interpret this WHIFF is to say that every other swing is a miss.  Just to be able to make contact against Lidge's slider is a feat, so you better believe it isn't hit all that squarely.  The Reds' Francisco Cordero, the next best slider, receives 20% fewer swing-and-misses than Lidge's.

Name	SLD_WHIFF	USAGE	Zone%
B. Lidge	.496	55.2%	68.7%
F. Cordero	.396	28.1%	60.4%
J. Nathan	.373	30.6%	65.5%
K. Gregg	.261	21.2%	50.1%
B. Wilson	.260	25.0%	49.3%
B. Ryan	.209	22.8%	50.6%

 

    This is not to discredit Nathan's slider either: his slider still flirts with 40% of swings missing.  In fact, among all the pitches thrown at least 15% of the time, Nathan's slider has the eighth-best WHIFF. 

Name	Type	WHIFF	USAGE	Zone%
K. Wood	curve	.533	29.3%	57.3%
B. Lidge	slider	.496	55.2%	72.7%
T. Hoffman	change	.475	25.7%	67.2%
J. Putz	change	.441	34.8%	55.4%
B. Fuentes	slider	.417	15.8%	64.0%
F. Cordero	change	.415	15.9%	60.9%
F. Cordero	slider	.396	28.1%	60.4%
J. Nathan	slider	.373	30.6%	65.5%
J. Valverde	change	.364	33.9%	67.3%
F. Rodriguez	curve	.362	28.9%	58.0%
J. Papalbon	change	.347	18.7%	62.6%
G. Sherrill	curve	.338	23.8%	65.0%
B. Lyon	curve	.302	24.4%	66.7%
M. Rivera	cutter	.281	52.3%	70.2%
J. Valverde	fastball	.273	61.5%	73.0%
K. Gregg	slider	.261	21.3%	50.5%
B. Wilson	slider	.226	25.0%	49.3%
J. Papelbon	fastball	.221	79.3%	72.7%
B. Ryan	fastball	.220	77.2%	67.0%
B. Wilson	fastball	.214	74.9%	64.7%

 

    Kerry Wood's $20 million, two-year contract looks very accurate in relation to his stuff.  His fastball was the fourth-best among closers while his hammer-curve gets the honors for the best pitch on the market - better than Lidge's slider and better than the legendary Trevor Hoffman cottonball changeup.  Then again, his arm falls off like the Scarecrow's hey inners so you can't assume he will be available from April to October without some ailment.  Joakim Soria lives off of his fastball - one that isn't thrown particularly hard - but gets bats to miss nonetheless.  Without a complementary out-pitch, Soria may be in for a rough patch in 2009.  Brandon Lyon hardly makes a blip on the charts.  Although his curveball is of value (.302 WHIFF), his fastball has pus written all over it.  Short of Wood maintaining active roster status the entire 162-games, Nathan should retain the title of best closer in the AL Central. 

Twins Notes (Pitchers and Catchers Report Edition)

• La Velle E Neal mentions in his blog that there is development towards adjusting some of the Type A regulations in order to allow for a player like Diamondbacks reliever, Juan Cruz, to be resigned by his current team and then assemble a trade with another team thereby avoiding the need to lose a June draft pick.  This is an intriguing proposition but will probably end up fruitless for the Twins.  Logistically, it feels too complicated.  In order for something like this to work, the Twins would have to wait for the Diamondbacks to sign Cruz to a reasonable contract.  According to the Arizona Republic, Diamondbacks GM, Josh Byrnes said "A solution that works for us and works for him is unclear.  We're at least trying to see how to make this a favorable outcome."  Following that, the Twins would have to negotiate an exchange of players that the Diamondbacks would accept  -- all the while bidding against other franchises that would love his power arm without the lost draft pick associated with him.  Only if the Twins are confident that they would A) receive Cruz at a market or below-market rate and B) not have to give up players that they value, would this adjustment of the Type A regulations lead to a favorable result.  Though the loosened regulation might make it more plausible that the Twins could acquire Cruz, it hard to envision this actually happening.   
• The most recent LASIK success story is, of course, Denard Span.  Span was joined by Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer as two more alumni of the LASIK procedure as well this offseason.  Add prospect Steven Tolleson's name to the growing list of Twins players that have gotten LASIK recently.  Following a full season at Ft Myers (A+) in which he hit .285/.388/.382 in 571 plate appearances, Tolleson advanced to AA where an injury-segmented season had him hitting .300/.382/.466 in 397 plate appearances where he emerged as a hot Twins prospect.  Though a small sample, Tolleson witnessed his production spike in the Arizona Fall League this past offseason, hitting .383/.449/.543 in 94 at-bats.  “There’s a huge difference in the way that I see and that’s got to equate in continued consistency on the baseball field,” said Tolleson.  Josh Johnson has Tolleson ranked at #21 for his top Twins prospects while Aaron Gleeman slotted him at #20. Le Valle reaffirmed Tolleson's non-quantifiable quality of a ballplayer by writing "Steven Tolleson looks like a player. Sometimes its easy to tell the prospects from the major leaguers during these workouts. Tolleson fits right in. I’m sure it helps that his father played in the majors. He’s coming off of a nice Arizona Fall League stint during which he batted .383 and is moving up the list of the Twins’ top prospects. He’s one player I want to see in spring games."  To me, Tolleson is just an impressive spring and progress in Rochester away from finding himself in Minnesota if either Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla are injured. 
• The Mets have signed the remnants of Livan Hernandez to a minor league contract.  "I just feel that we need to have numbers. I think you guys know my philosophy on this: You just never have enough pitching, and starting pitching," Mets GM Omar Minaya said. "Livan can give you innings, he can pitch in different roles." Hernandez stands to make $1 million if he is added to the 25-man roster and another $1 million in incentives.  His time in New York might come sooner rather than later as manager Jerry Manuel indicated that Hernandez has the opportunity to win the vacate 5th starter's spot. 
• Oh yeah.  Welcome, pitchers and catchers. 

 

 

The Others.

Chicago White Sox

 

• The Mighty Whities signed Ben Broussard this week to a minor league contract.  Broussard, a darling of platoon fanatics, hit .186 with the Rangers in 2008 in just 82 at-bats and spent most of last year in the minors with the Cubs and Yankees.  The 32-year-old left-handed first baseman is a career .270/.331/.462 batter against right-handed pitching but has been stymied by the left-handed variety, hitting just .225/.288/.393 off of them.  By all accounts, Broussard will spend the 2009 in AAA Charlotte as roster filler. 

 

Cleveland Indians

 

• Though possibly the most active team out of all the AL Central teams -- adding closer Kerry Wood, set-up man Joe Smith and third baseman Mark DeRosa this offseason -- Cleveland's local media still believes the division goes through Minnesota and Chicago, once again.  Long-time Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Paul Hoynes, that of the famed 'Hey, Hoynsie' question-and-answer columns, writes that he anticipates the Twins to win the Central followed by the Sox, Indians, Tigers and Royals.   
• The Tribe have enlisted the help of former Twins great Frank Viola as a spring training instructor.  Sweet Music was a teammate of current Indians manager, Eric Wedge, while in Boston in 1992.  Though on the same team, Viola never threw to Wedge in a game.  Nevertheless, Wedge was encouraged to have Viola on board to work with some of the many left-handed pitchers the Indians will feature in camp this spring.  "I heard he wanted to get back into the game so I talked to him over the winter," said Wedge. "With all our left-handed pitchers, we felt he could help us."  Former Twin and current Indian pitching coach, Carl Willis, raved about Viola's presence in camp.  "Viola didn't just have great stuff," said Willis, "he had a great move to first base and he had a great change-up. We're pushing that with some of our lefties."
• Former Indian, Roberto Alomar, decided to take some, albeit small, media attention away from Alex Rodriguez by participating in a good, old-fashioned lawsuit with ex-girlfriend, Ilya Dall.  Dall's suit claims that Alomar, who maybe the first Gold Glover with full-blown AIDS, repeatedly insisted on having unprotected sex despite having "obvious signs of HIV".  The Village Voice, via Deadspin, reports that Dall is a former "arm wrestler" in her home state of New York. 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

•  The following the offseason this year must be a major disappointment for fans that were geared up on the acquisition of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis (no relation to Carl), Edgar Renteria and Gary Sheffield in the previous two offseasons.  Instead, Motown gets a dose of cross-your-fingers acquistions in shortstop Adam Everett, catcher Gerald Laird and relievers Juan Rincon, Brandon Lyon and Scott Williamson.  Naturally, the core of the Tigers lineup still has plenty of bite, yet it is aging rapidly.  At 30.4 and 29.9, respectively, the Tigers had the 4th oldest lineup and the 2nd oldest pitching staff in the American League.  All for the low, low sum of $137.5 million. 
• With starters Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander returning along with Willis's potential contributions in the rotation, it is not hard to think that Detroit could remain competitive in the Central.  The bullpen, however, with Lyon returning to the closer role, is still a mystery.  Joel Zumaya, who spent a good deal of the 2008 season on the DL, is gunning for the role that was assumed to be Lyon's.  "I've got two guys that I'm going to be fighting for the role," Zumaya said. "They're going to be friends. We're going to be part of the team. But when we're out there, it's going to be competitive." Former Twins minor league pitching coordinator, Rick Knapp, was brought in to be the Tigers pitching coach on his ability to refine relievers. 
  

Kansas City Royals

 

•  Kansas City's 2009 payroll is expected to exceed $70 million.  Though a small number in comparison to the aforementioned $137 million of the Tigers, the $70 million figure represents a 20% increase from 2008.  Yet, the Royals still might not be finished working the free agent market, reportedly looking at Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson and (more plausably) Ray Durham.
• The Royals have toyed with moving outfielder Mark Teahen to second base in 2009.  This is yet another bizarre move for the Royals.  After spending his first four seasons as a third baseman then a fairly decent right fielder in 2007 but a poorer one last season, Teahen is expected to compete for a position that is much more highly skilled than that of a corner outfielder.  The Defensive Spectrum, as I brought up a week ago in reference to Michael Cuddyer, shows that it is much more difficult to slide to the right of the spectrum (DS: 1B -- LF -- RF -- 3B -- CF -- 2b -- SS), if anything, Teahen is primed to become a first baseman -- even if his offense closely resembles that of a second baseman.  Unfortunately, the Royals have two players at first (Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler) and have the need for speedier outfielders to cover more real estate in Kauffman.

Analyzing Ayala

After toying with Eric Gagne and Russ Springer, the Twins have settled on the 31-year-old right-handed Luis Ayala, offering a one-year, $1.3 million contract (which could be worth $1.8 with incentives) pending a physical.  Ayala has further increased the depth of the bullpen, a component that the team was lacking in 2008.  In 81 appearances split between the Nationals and the Mets in 2008, Ayala threw 75.2 innings with a 50/24 K/BB ratio and a 6.32 Runs Allowed Average. 

 

At 41, the Athletics signed a similar type of pitcher in Springer to a contract worth twice as much ($3.3 million).  Gagne is still seeking a contract that smart GMs will laugh at.  Fangraphs recently calculated that the Fair Market Value for Ayala would be $2.8 million, so the actual contract signed could wind up a bargain for the Twins.  What can the Twins expect from Ayala in 2009?

 

Reliever........Contact%

P. Humber......87.5%

L. Ayala........86.5%

J. Crain.........80.0%

M. Guerrier.....77.1%

B. Bonser.......76.2%

C. Breslow......74.5%

J. Nathan.......70.0%

 

Reliever..............K%

J. Nathan........28.3%

B. Bonser........23.3%

C. Breslow.......21.4%

MLB Average........19.1%

J. Crain..........18.6%

M. Guerrier......17.1%

L. Ayala..........14.9%

P. Humber.......12.0%

As you can see from the chart above, Ayala doesn't make too many bats miss.  He does not come equipped with an out-pitch -- his most successful pitch at making batters miss was his changeup (.179 WHIFF) that he throws with a seven mile-per-hour difference from his fastball.  For comparison's sake, every one of the Twins bullpen staff has at least one pitch that has a WHIFF higher than .300.  Ayala is a standard fastball/slider pitcher.  His slider is thrown to contact (.157 WHIFF) coupled with a sinking fastball that incites groundballs (48.5% GB% career).   Ayala's success is contingent on the eight other guys on the field, provided that the ball remains in the field of play.  If you subtract Humber from the Contact Percentage and Strikeout Percentage chart above (considering he only threw 11 innings in 2008 anyways), you can see clearly that Ayala, more than anyone else in the bullpen, requires his defense to convert the outs for him. 

 

So what about those balls in play?  In addition to having a high contact rate, Ayala's opponents made fairly solid contact: almost 23% of those balls put into play were line drives (only Boof Bonser was the only other member of that list to have his LD rate over 19%, the AL average).  With a larger than normal amount of balls scorched on a rope it is no surprise to see that Ayala's BABIP was .320.  On the flip side, fundamentally Ayala is a groundball pitcher.  His career 48.5% groundball rate means that Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla will be busy up the middle.  With a better defensive tandem at second and short, Ayala will watch his BABIP drop closer to league average. 

 

One indication that Ayala will improve in 2009 is his strand rate -- his ability to leave runners on base -- was absurdly low (60.2%), leading to his ERA over 5.  This statistic has the tendency to fluctuate but typically from year-to-year.  The possibility is strong that it will rebound to a higher Left On Base rate in 2009 and see his ERA shrink as a result.  According to Inside Edge's scouting report, in spite of Ayala's high line drive rate, batters were not punishing the righty, so the suggestion is that the runs crossing the plate were a factor of bad luck rather than being knocked around the ballpark.

 

Reliever........Well-Hit Average

C. Breslow.......152

J. Crain..........216

J. Nathan........218

L. Ayala...........232

M. Guerrier.......235

MLB Average.......267

B. Bonser.........271

P. Humber.........318

 

So even though Ayala doesn't necessary fit into the prototypical 8th Inning Guy mold, they did acquired a genuine workhorse with high leverage experience, two areas that needed addressing.  What wore down the Twins' bullpen in 2008 was the lack of bullpen dept.  Ayala's presence will drop Guerrier back to his lower leverage situations wear he is better suited and he will be a safety net for the Twins if Jesse Crain is unable to emerge as the dominate set up man.  

 

Guerrier's One-Year Deal is Suitable

The Twins agreed to terms with reliever Matt Guerrier, settling on a one-year, $1.475 contract.  But as Joe Christensen pointed out, the Twins were attempting to reach a multi-year agreement with Guerrier.  Anything more than the one season is an unnecessary commitment of future finances:  Guerrier, who will be 31-years-old in August, is under control by the Minnesota Twins through 2010 and has a lot to prove.  Opponents owned him in the final two months of 2008, swatting six home runs in 19.2 innings of work.  His 0-5 record and 10.07 ERA in August and September hardly inspired confidence in the reliever.  Why commit anything more?  

 

Including being grossly ineffective the second-half of the season, Guerrier is also a likely injury candidate.  Guerrier has been one of the most overworked relievers in the game the past two years.  Though his 149 appearances didn’t qualify him as the most-used reliever – the Nationals’ Saul Rivera was used over 161 times in 2007 and 2008 – his 164 innings led to 1.10 innings per outing average over the past two seasons, a significant amount of work.  This is on par with the experience of Scott Proctor.  The 31-year-old Proctor was run out to the mound while with the Yankees 83 times in 2006 to throw 102.1 innings.  In 2007, Proctor split the year between New York and the Dodgers and was once again trotted out 83 times but threw 86 innings total.  After 163 appearances and 188 innings (1.15 Inn/App), Proctor started 2008 ineffective, throwing 31.2 innings with a 6.82 ERA as opponents slugged .504 off of him, and complained about pain in his arm.  The righty spent 60 days on the DL in 2008 and witnessed his velocity drop (from 94.4 in 2006 to 92.8 last season) and control wane (2.9 BB/9 in 2006 to 5.59 BB/9 last year).  This offseason, the Florida Marlins obtained Proctor for $750,000.   

 

Like Proctor, Guerrier saw his command fail him too -- as evident by his BB/9 inflating from 2.15 in 2007 to 4.36 last year -- but Guerrier’s numbers show promise that his career could head in a different direction than Proctor’s.  Guerrier’s velocity stayed relatively the same (91.6 in 2007 and 91.4 in 2008), dispelling any immediate concerns of pitching in pain.  As I highlighted last month, Guerrier still has a very effective assortment of breaking pitches.  His slider is especially devastating, reflective in his .423 WHIFF average, and his strikeout rate has remained steady at 6.96 K/9.  Furthermore, Guerrier’s BABIP of .315 was significantly higher than both his career average of .291 and the league’s average of .295.  As an indicator of luck, Guerrier should see his BABIP regress closer to the league average in 2009.   

 

If the Twins manage to trim off 15-20 appearances in 2009, Guerrier’s likelihood of having a solid season increases.  Through his first 55 games in 2007, Guerrier held a 1.96 ERA, 49/15 K/BB ratio and an opponent average of .202.  In his first 50 games in 2008, Guerrier had a 3.23 ERA, a 44/23 K/BB ratio and an opponent average of .242.  Space out 50-60 appearances in lower leverage situations and he is likely to replicate his early season success from April until September.  If he responds well in these appearances, the Twins and Guerrier will once again exchange figures and the front office can look to secure Guerrier’s first season of free agent eligibility.  If he does not respond well to the lighter work load or it does surface that Guerrier has a tired arm, the Twins now have the option of replacing him in 2010 with several internal candidates at a less expensive rate.   

 

Either way Guerrier’s 2009 season plays out, in the end, avoiding signing him to a multi-year contract was a smart move.   

 

    

 

 

 

Did Tom Kelly Wreck Brad Radke's Career?

    When the 33-year-old Brad Radke retired following the 2006 season after 12 seasons with the Twins, many of those played with futile teams, he did so leaving behind a 148-139 record (.516 win pct) in 377 starts, a 4.22 ERA and 1467-to-445 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.  Yet it seems like an abrupt end to Radke's career.  Andy Pettite, who finished ahead of Radke for the 1995 Rookie of the Year award, is about to start his 16th season.  Why did Radke succumb to shoulder injuries that forced him to retire when some of his compatriots continue to pitch?  

 

 

    There were two parts to the problems that would lead to Radke's early retirement: timing and management.  The first, timing, came from personnel moves from the front office forced Radke to enter the starting rotation at a young age.  With the impending free agency of Kevin Tapani and the ineffectiveness of Scott Erickson, the Twins traded two members of the rotation that were heavily relied upon.  At 22 years old most pitching prospect are putting the final touches at AA and AAA, but Radke was about to receive a baptism by fire.  The second, and most important aspect that led to later a final rotator cuff injury, was game management.

 

    The best way to measure a pitcher's workload is by season is to use Rany Jazayerli's Pitcher Abuse Points system.  Between Craig Wright's "The Diamond Appraised" and Jazayerli's research, these sabermaticians found that it wasn't the amount of innings or pitches thrown that causes damage for pitchers, but rather it was pitching past the point of fatigue.  Jazayerli's analysis shows that the 100 pitch mark is about the threshold for the average starting pitcher and he devised a points-based system that assigns a value as the pitch count grows.   One point is assigned to every pitch from 101-110; Two points from every pitch from 111-120;  Three points for every pitch from 121-130 and so on.  According to his article, "These points are cumulative: a 115-pitch outing gets you 20 PAP's - 1 for each pitch from 101-110 (10 total), and 2 for each pitch from 111-115 (10 total). A 120-pitch outing is worth 30 PAP's, while a 140-pitch outing is worth 100 PAP's - more than 3 times as much. This seems fair; a pitcher doesn't get tired all at once, but fatigue sets on gradually, and with each pitch the danger of continuing to pitch grows."

 

    Below is a season-by-season look at Radke's Pitcher Abuse Points: 

 

	22 yrs	23 yrs	24 yrs	25 yrs	26 yrs	27 yrs	28 yrs	29 yrs	30 yrs	31 yrs	32 yrs	33 yrs
PAP	187	288	368	498	137	409	148	38	101	178	56	27

 

    The Kelly Years (22 yrs to 28 yrs)

 

    The 22-year-old Brad Radke was summoned to the Twins, unscathed by AAA experience, and the burden of the those lost innings  fell on to the young Radke's shoulders.  Manager Tom Kelly and pitching coach Dick Such rode Radke hard -- the young pitcher had accumulated 187 PAP in 1995.  In four of his starts, the Twins had Radke throw 111-to-120 pitches on four occasions and once he threw over 131 pitches.  The following season he would make 35 starts and work 232 innings at the tender age of 23, amassing 288 PAP - throwing over 121 pitches four times. It was obvious that Radke was trending upwards.  At age 24, Radke had what most agree was his best season.  In 35 starts, Radke went 20-10 with a 3.87 ERA while pitching 239.7 innings.  What was most impressive about this display was the fact that his 20 victories accounted for nearly 30% of the team's total (68 in all) and his strikeout rate was up to a career-high 17.6%.  Still, with success came additional workload and Radke's Pitching Abuse Points for the season was up to 368.  The next season, 1998, Radke tallied his highest PAP of his career to date with 498 with an ERA of 4.30 in 35 starts and 213 innings.  Interestingly enough, after two consecutive seasons with heavy workloads (368 and 498 PAP each) and high strikeout rates (17.6% and 16.1% respectively), Radke's strikeout totals diminished to 13% in 1999.  In just five starts he entered the 111-120 pitch range all year - mostly staying under 100 pitches - while still throwing well over 200 innings (218) and as a result the Twins received a low 3.75 ERA, a new career low.  This success could be attributed to the fact that in 33 starts, the 26 year old finished the season with his lowest PAP total (137) since his rookie campaign.  Nevertheless, Kelly and Such regressed to their old ways and allowed Radke to labor on the mound in 2000 as a 27 year old.  In four games, Radke threw more than 121 pitches and throw between 111-and-120 in seven more. Fresh off of his contract extension, Brad Radke would finish the year with 407 PAP while making 34 starts and throwing 226.7 innings with a 4.45 ERA.  In 2001, in what would be Tom Kelly and Dick Such's last season as the field managers, Radke made 33 starts and matched his 226 innings from the prior year.  In those 33 starts, Radke would rarely throw into the 111-to-120 pitch range (four) and threw more than 121 just once, resulting in a PAP of 148 while providing an ERA of 3.94.  Judging from his 1999 and 2001 seasons, it would seem that Radke would respond better to a less abusive pitch count. 

 

The Gardenhire Years (29 yrs to 33 yrs)

 

      When Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson assumed the roles of manager and pitching coach, the pair seemed to approach their positions differently then the previous regime.  On the pitching mound, no Twins starter broke the 200 inning barrier.  The starters as a group went from throwing nearly 70% of the total innings just 62% in 2002.  This slight adjustment helped the rotation's ERA go from 4.46 to 4.38, a small difference.  An early season strained groin would give Radke his lightest workload since his rookie year, avoiding the 200 inning mark (118) amounting to only 38 PAP in just 21 starts.  A year later, the 30 year old Radke would be ready to throw 200 innings once again and make 33 starts, finishing 14-10 with a 4.49 ERA, and a 101 PAP -- his lowest total in a full season yet.  In 2004, Radke would make 34 starts with a 11-8 record and a career-low 3.48 ERA in 219 innings.  He would also only reach 178 PAP that season as well.  It was after that season in which Radke faced a big decision.  Once again, he would be a free agent and following a year in which he had a 3.48 ERA, he would be a desired commodity.  The Red Sox supposedly offered a four-year, $27 million dollar contract but the Twins pitcher for life passed it over to remain with the team that drafted and developed him to a two-year, $18 million contract.  "We're comfortable in Minnesota," Radke told NY Times reporters. "I was looking for something fair. If the Twins didn't come up with a fair deal, I'd be playing for the Red Sox right now. I didn't know what to expect. Half of me thought I was going to go somewhere else; the other half thought it would work out. I'm glad it did. My family is happy. Plus we've been to the postseason the last three years. Why change?"

    Radke's fortunes, along with the rest of the team, would turn in 2005.  After three straight division championships, the Twins would sink to 3rd in the division as Radke would finish 9-12 in 31 starts, working 200 innings with an ERA of 4.04.  Gardenhire's game management added only 56 PAP to his now 32 year old arm that season, an arm that was hanging by a thread.  Radke made references to the pain in his shoulder after each start.  He would try to work through it in 2006, in what would ultimately be his last season.  In mid-August the pain would be unbareable and Radke would eventually sit the month and almost all of September out in hopes that the rest would offer repair.  That final season Radke would make 28 starts and toss 162 innings, end the year with a 12-9 record and a 4.32 ERA. 

 

	Starters	Innings	K%	ERA	PAP	PAP/Start
Kelly/Such	230	1535	14%	4.27	2037	8.85
Gardenhire/Anderson	147	911	13.8%	4.15	400	2.72

    In seven seasons managed by Tom Kelly, Brad Radke had 2,037 Pitcher Abuse Points on his arm, an average of 8.85 PAP per start.  In five seasons while managed by Ron Gardenhire, Radke put only 400 Pitching Abuse Points on his arm, an average of 2.72 PAP per start.  There are several theories as to why Kelly used Radke more liberally, while Gardenhire more conservatively.  Gardenhire had the luxury of pairing Radke with Johan Santana, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse.  These pitchers provided a level of reliance that Kelly never had with the likes of Frankie Rodriguez, Mike Trombley and Rich Robertson.  Secondly, the bullpens under Ron Gardenhire were far superior than what Kelly was forced to call upon in the mid-to-late 1990s -- milking out an additional inning from Radke keeps the relievers off the mound. 

 

    Still, whatever the logic behind it, either knowingly or unknowingly, Kelly was slowly doing damage to Radke's arm.  Think of Kelly's increased workload of Radke to that of a smoker.  A young smoker at the age of 22 might not think there is any damage incurring to their lungs when they inhale a pack a day, but as the years progress, their lung capacity is gone.   Even when Gardenhire began to curb his usage, the damage was already done.  Sure, the entire premise of this statement seems littered with blaspheme, accusing a two-time World Series winning manager of not being able to handle his young pitcher.  However, when we review the evidence above, we find that it is true.  Tom Kelly's mismanagement of Brad Radke cost him at least one or two seasons in his career.