Twins rotation needs to get back on track

In June the Twins and their fans were on cloud nine. The team had rattled off a 17-9 record after falling on their face out of the starting gate. It was…happening. But then June begat a mediocre July which slowly transitioned into an awful August.

The bridge between all of this has been the starting rotation. When the team was rolling through the early part of summer, the rotation held the American League’s best ERA that month (3.00). In July, as the team went a good-not-great 16-13, the rotation’s ERA jumped up to 4.76. Now 2-7 in so far in August, the rotation has been shackled to a 5.50 ERA and have not yet recorded a win in those 9 games.

To their credit, since the All Star Break, the Twins rotation has done a marvelous job pitching to contact. The unfortunate follow up to that is that opposing teams have OUTSTANDING contact and have amassed a baseball-high .304 batting average off of them in that time. As the highest paid member of the rotation Carl Pavano has led the way since the break, allowing a .331 average against which is second in the American League to a thing called “Jason Vargas” of the Seattle Mariners. Not far behind Pavano is Brian Duensing (.317) and Nick Blackburn (.309) giving the rotation a three-to-one advantage over the offense (Joe Mauer) in averages over .300 in the past month.

If you want to get technical, in that same period of time the Twins are owners of a .330 batting average on balls in play. This would insinuate that there is some responsibility on the defense for being unable to convert many of the batted balls into outs. However, these are not your standard dribblers through the hole or bloops over the infield. According to Inside Edge scouting service Pavano (.274). Duensing (.250) and Blackburn (.241) all fall within the bottom 20 in well-hit average (charted well-hit balls per at bat). So, while the defense has been shaky at times we have also witnessed right-handers shooting lasers all over the field off of Duensing that no defensive configuration could have tracked.

Part of the reason opponents are able to spray bullets all over the field is that Twins pitchers are simply falling behind hitters far too frequently. Right now, the rotation’s 54.6% first-pitch strike rate is the lowest in baseball. This once was the Twins’ hallmark as in the previous two seasons they were the best in baseball at achieving strike one. This season they have been slinking steadily towards the bottom of the league in this category. More recently, both Francisco Liriano (46.7%, lowest in MLB) and the usually commanding Duensing (49.6%, 5th-lowest) have had troubles starting the count in their favor the past 30 days.

What does this mean? It means that Twins pitchers will have a higher tendency of putting a runner on or getting piss-pounded across the yard. After a first-pitch ball, major league hitters have posted a robust .818 OPS – very comparable to what Jim Thome is producing at this season. On the other hand, if a pitcher manages to get ahead in the count right away, hitters have been held to a .600 OPS – slightly higher than what Ben Revere is at now. Clearly, in order to be successful, it is best to put opponents at a disadvantage.

Bu these are just symptoms of an overall larger issue: THEY ARE JUST NOT THROWING ENOUGH STRIKES. Period.

Since the break they have thrown 1,020 balls in 2,699 pitches over the course of 158.2 innings of work. This is by far the highest amount of non-strikes and the second most pitches thrown by the starting rotation in baseball. Not surprising, Liriano has thrown 261 balls leading to a post-break high of 21 walks in 33.1 innings in six starts. Trailing him in the AL is Blackburn, a typically control-oriented pitcher, who has walked 17 hitters in 32 innings in his six starts. For the Twins it means more walks or more situations in which a pitcher has to groove one down the middle which leads to runs in bunches and early visits to the showers.

It would be unfair to put the entire onus on the starting rotation - after all, the offense has not been on fire when it comes to run support since the break. The 4.14 runs per nine innings is the lowest support in the AL with the exception of the Los Angeles Angels and the Mariners (who have not recorded a hit since 2008). So like the defense, they deserve to shoulder some of blame as well. That said it is the starting rotation sets the tone for the team and they need to get back to the basics by attacking the strike zone early and work ahead of hitters.  

Surgery or rehab for Kyle Gibson?

Last night, not long after the Twins put Scott Baker on the DL with a strained flexor muscle, they  announced that 2009 first round draft pick Kyle Gibson was going to report to Fort Myers after he was diagnosed with a strained flexor muscle as well as a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament.

Gibson was a pitcher on the fast-track in the system, moving swiftly through the minors and performing extremely well along the way. Armed with a slicing two-seam fastball and an impressive change-up, it was easy to see what the six-foot-six right-hander was succeeding in Rochester and knocking on the door in Minnesota. He was the owner of the International League’s second-highest ground ball rate (57%), ninth-highest strikeout percentage (21.7%) and tenth-highest FIP (3.73). Now, it appears that his arrival to Minnesota will be delayed.

While a completely torn UCL would have necessitated Tommy John surgery right away and costing him 12-to-18 months of development, in the case of partial tears to the UCL, experts have often recommended a path of rest followed by rehab lasting 12-to-18 weeks total before re-evaluation. However, it is a song-and-dance fans have seen before – most recently with Pat Neshek – in which the staff and front office says Pitcher X is going to attempt to get some R&R before the inevitable date with Dr. New Elbow and wasting several weeks of time in the process. The question is how often do pitchers have success with this route?

According to an article by Baseball Prospectus’s Ben Lindbergh, the odds are not terrific. Lindbergh cites a Corey Dawkins’ article on the subject in which he wrote:

“The UCL does not completely heal on its own ever. Without surgery, the area is only stabilized by two methods. First, the elbow can be strengthened up to the point where the muscles take up the slack for the lack of ligament stability. The other method is that scar tissue is built up and the muscles are also strengthened. Regardless neither of these actually heal the tissue of the ligament, they merely control the symptom of instability.”

Lindbergh approximated that 55 percent of pitchers who have gone down the path of rest & rehab have eventually made an appointment to have their UCL replaced. That list includes the Neshek who went almost a year in his rehab before requiring Tommy John surgery that all but ended his career in Minnesota. On the other hand, Lindberg notes that the Angels’ Ervin Santana followed the R&R program and wound up returning to pitch without yet running back to the surgical table. In fact since his 2009 shutdown Santana has logged 388 innings, compiled a 25-18 record with a pristine 3.62 ERA and solid 306/116 strikeouts/walk ratio.

So there is hope for Gibson in that regard. But the other concern is that Gibson has less than optimal mechanics – the kind that puts added stress on this area. Even if the Twins rest him for a while to the point where he stabilizes his UCL, it is likely that his mechanics would jar that bugger loose again anyways.

Way back in December of 2008 – long before a forearm stress fracture sidelined him at the end of the 2009 season – Kyle Boddy of the now-defunct Driveline Mechanics website deconstructed Gibson’s mechanics. Boddy found that Gibson’s leg kick was wasted motion as he lowered it before driving forward, minimizing hip force and putting added exertion on his arm. What’s more is that Gibson brings his elbow to the point of hyperabduction while scap loading (drawing his pitching arm off of the driveline of home/second instead towards first). In the video below taken by 1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey in Fort Myers this spring, while the visibility is not perfect, you can see some of the elements that Boddy was referring to including the leg motion and scap loading of his pitching arm:

It’s a difficult decision, no doubt. If you opt for Tommy John now and you have lost a year or more to development at a critical time. On the other hand, if you attempt to rest and rehab, Gibson could lose a few months before requiring Tommy John surgery anyways. Now the waiting game begins with their top prospect.  

Scott Baker headed to the DL?

It appears that the Twins may be poised to lose Scott Baker for the second time in the season due to his elbow.

With two-fifths of the starting rotation already on the verge of needing replacement, following a Monday’s loss to the Red Sox, Baker told reporters that the team was going to evaluate his elbow and determine whether or not he needed another stint on the disabled list. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen, Baker said he “noticed a lack of velocity and less sharpness in his breaking pitches.”

For those watching the game, it certainly looked like Baker is not 100%.

Baker, who is typically in the low-90s, was sitting around 89 miles per hour when facing the Red Sox on Monday night. This became apparent during the middle stages of the game that the he looked flat when it came to amping up his fastball or snapping his slider over the zone. The sixth inning really proved to be his undoing and we witnessed examples of both of those problems. After a lead-off triple to Carl Crawford and several hard hit balls, David Ortiz deposited one of Baker’s 89 mile-per-hour fastballs into the upper deck of right field and Jarrod Saltalamacchia followed that by lifting a horizontal-moving slider into the plaza area (a 0-2 pitch, no less).  

According to Fangraphs.com pitch f/x warehouse, last night’s start was not his first tango without the high-grade heat. Since his July 5 outing against Tampa Bay when he left after five innings, there has been a noticeable decline in his velocity. Here you see that what pitch f/x categorizes as his main fastball (a two-seamer). The grey lines indicate the range of velocity while the green dots represent the average. What we can see is that Baker has been averaging 89-90 mph in his previous four starts when his elbow began barking again:

The drop in velocity in and of itself isn't necessarily a concern. What is striking is that the sudden downturn appears very similar to last season’s output. As you may recall, Baker’s 2010 was marred by the elbow injury that he attempted to play through - even receiving a cortisone shot – but ultimately needed to be shutdown and required offseason surgery to remove bone spurs.

Baker provided a bit of a scare in the spring when he reported a setback in his progress. While the bone spur surgery is viewed as a minor clean-up, the spurs have frequently led to further elbow damage. Spurs are generated by a loose UCL (the same ligament that snaps and then necessitates Tommy John surgery) and often the removal of spurs and chips can be a precursor to the eventual more intensive surgical procedure. Now, with the reports of his elbow discomfort flaring up again, it is time for the Twins to decide if they need to put their arguably best starter on the disabled list – and it is probably the right move to make.

Baker’s statements after the game leads one to believe that he is uncertain on where he stands. He noted that the pain was not as intense as it previously was but that he was struggling to get loose. He suggests that he could pitch through pain but, in all honestly, how much should the Twins push their top starter when the season is spiraling out of control fast?

By his own admission, he said he could “pitch with some discomfort” but conceded that pitching through that without being effective is counterproductive. While he hasn’t been a detriment (not like Nick Blackburn or Francisco Liriano anyways), Baker hasn’t been sharp. With the reality that the Twins’ chances of winning the division hover somewhere between slim and none, the organization needs to reassess Baker’s program. Furthermore, with a year left on his contract in addition to an option year for 2013, if the team wants to have Baker to return to pitch like he did from May through July when they have a chance to compete for the division next season, rest is likely the best course of action. 

Brian Duensing needs to get right against the right

Brian Duensing entered last night’s start owning the third-highest WHIP against right-handed batters (1.63) – only surpassed by San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez (1.64) and Detroit’s Phil Coke (1.77) – in 2011.

This is not any accident of sample size either - including last season the Twins’ left-hander has the fourth-highest WHIP versus righties among qualified starters. It is an amazing contrast considering he has managed to compile some impressive numbers against his southpawed brethren. Since 2010 he has a baseball-best 0.81 WHIP with the fourth-lowest .187 batting average when facing same-sided opponents.

When facing lefties, Duensing’s approach is to work the fastball in on the hands and then unleash his sharp slider off the plate down-and-away. Lefties have found this extremely difficult to hit hard – if they make contact at all - beating the ball into the ground 52% of the time in 2011. This means very few extra base hits. Pepper in his ability to get them to chase the running slider and it equates to one bad mamma-jamma.

Of course, the world is dominated by the right-handed and Duensing has certainly played the role of the submissive this season.

His plan of attack against righties seems strikingly similar but for his secondary pitches. In terms of his fastball, Duensing targets the outer-half of the plate. Rather than using his slider like he does for lefties, he favors his change-up instead. Because he prefers to use a backdrop slider – locating the pitch on the outer-half of the plate to righties – the offering sees less horizontal movement. This gives righties a better opportunity to make contact. The changeup, while effective, is not nearly the same swing-and-miss pitch that the slider is. Hence, in order to be successful Duensing needs to work down in the zone and get grounders.

He did that quite well last year, as you will see in the chart below, but the Twins starter is not achieving the same results on batted balls as he did in 2010. Rather than the high amount of grass-killers, hitters are squaring up on his pitches more, hitting them for ropes around the ballpark:

Duensing’s Batted Ball Distribution vs Right-Handers
	Line Drive%	Groundball%	Flyball%
2010	15.7	52.8	31.5
2011	20.8	40.5	38.7

Using mostly his fastball, he leaves the ball up in the zone far too frequently, even more so than last season:

There is a stark discrepancy between the location of his fastball to right-handers between this year and the last. In 2010 (on the right) Duensing was able to keep his down in the zone – a more difficult spot for righties to hit solidly. This season more and more of his fastballs have been up and over the plate – a much easier place to drive the ball.

That alone is likely reason enough to explain the significant drop in his groundball rate against righties. However, let’s factor in the placement of his most frequently used secondary pitch: the changeup.

While Duensing’s primary pitch to right-handers is his fastball, he mixes in a changeup to keep them off-balanced. Last season, he was far more prone to throwing his change down in the zone, getting weaker contact and likely inciting more hitters to turn over on the pitch. This season, similar to his fastball, the changeup has been up and over the plate. This means opponents would have a greater tendency to drive the ball.  

It was suspected that Duensing would find himself scuffling against the righties and witness regression. On the other hand, one had to wonder if he did have some of those rare intangibles (aggressiveness in the zone, efficient, bulldog-like battle tendencies) that continue to outperform where his peripherals would suggest he should be at. Unfortunately, it has been more of the former and less of the latter in 2011.

With Kevin Slowey putting together a string of good starts in Rochester, fans are beginning to clamor for change in the rotation. With a large deficiency in the standings to overcome, management cannot turn a blind eye to the struggles it much longer. While Nick Blackburn is likely the first candidate to be removed from the rotation, Duensing can’t be far behind. If he wants to remain in the rotation, he needs to keep the ball down in the zone against righties.

Easier said than done.

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Reminder: DiamondCentric is selecting two more winners for the 1991 World Series DVD collector’s set and a Game Six t-shirt today and tomorrow. Head over the Facebook page, “like” the status and consider yourself entered.

1991 World Series DVD/T-shirt Giveaway

My Dad worked as an engineer for the Burlington Northern railroad, running trains between the Twin Cities and Fargo, North Dakota. Because of this, he often worked odd hours – a few days on and a few days off. While I was growing up, on the days he was scheduled to make a trip north, he would set the VCR to tape (yes, tape) the local sporting events. We had numerous tapes of miscellaneous Twins, Vikings and even North Star games. 

Over the years, most of those copies were recorded over because of Cheers and Seinfeld finales. However, I was able to rescue one for the clutches of oblivion: The Game Seven of the 1987 World Series.

The ’87 World Series was special. Even as a first grader, we had the sense that it was an important moment. Having attended a catholic school, we were forced to wear uncomfortable uniforms that seemed like they were made entirely out of corduroy. When October rolled around, we were told we were free to wear whatever we wanted, provided it was Twins gear (nuns love baseball). For that stretch of time, our parents allowed to stay up late, watching the ends of the games that stretch past our bedtimes. When they scheduled the parade downtown, we were exempt from school, joining the rest of what felt like the world in the downtown canyon cheering on the players as they drove by in their convertibles. We high-fived random strangers in the street.  

Still, being just shy of seven years old, I never fully had a gauge on how the game actually went. You can see by the box score that it was fairly close but you don’t get the ebb-and-flow of how the game progressed like watching it unfold. That’s why I There were several missed calls that went in the Twins favor. There was hard-nosed plays at the plate – like Gary Gaetti pancaking Cards backup catcher Steve Lake who somehow held on to the ball. There was Frankie Viola cutting down the St. Louis offense with the aid of his changeup. This is why it has been one of my most cherished possessions – it has given me context to what I could not remember as a child.

The Game Seven ’87 tape has traveled with me to college and has made the move to every subsequent dwelling (and I moved a lot), receiving almost the same treatment as the Stanley Cup has. But, even with the delicate handling, the tape still wore down from use and age. So I had it converted to DVD this past spring. Prior to the season, I fired up the game once again to relive one of the most memorable games in Twins history.

While the ’87 series was special, it cannot compete with how the 1991 World Series influenced my views on baseball and life.

For me, a 30-year-old, and others near my age group, the 1991 series could not have happened at a more impressionable time in life. At 10 years old, you start to absorb everything around you. It is the age right before puberty – the stage when a human’s brain goes coo-coo haywire until their late 20s. The memories you form at 10 seem to be less jaded than everything else that comes right after it. For Upper Midwestern children around my age, we were taught valuable life lessons. Game Seven starter, Jack Morris, taught us how to be men. You simply take the ball inning after inning and not let go unless manager Tom Kelly is forced to remove it from your cold, dead hand. Kent Hrbek taught us that – in some respects – cheating is okay, so long as you do it with flair. Kirby Puckett reaffirmed our childlike belief that heroes can indeed come through and save the day at the last minute.

It is hard to believe those memories were formed 20 years ago.

With this in mind, A&E is releasing a pair of DVD sets to commemorate the 20^th anniversary of Minnesota’s second championship. In efforts to market virally, they have contacted various Twins bloggers and have extended giveaways of these DVDs. This is one more location in which you can possibly win Magic in Minnesota: Remembering the 1991 World Series Championship and The Minnesota Twins 1991 World Series Collector’s Edition. In addition to the DVDs, winners will also receive a Game Six shirt from DiamondCentric.

In order to qualify, head to the DiamondCentric Facebook page and “like” this link and we will select three winners at random.