Bill Smith's trade history hindered Twins

It was a tumultuous first year for Bill Smith. He had to face the reality of the face-of-the-franchise Torii Hunter leaving via free agency as well as annual Cy Young candidate Johan Santana making it known that he wanted to play in a larger market – preferably New York. In the first few months at the helm, Smith made two trades that would forever tarnish his reputation in Minnesota in the fan's eyes.

In November 2007, Smith dealt Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. In efforts to replace Hunter’s right-handed stick, the Twins purchased the promising Young at a high price. Garza would help fortify the Rays rotation while Bartlett would boost the Rays defense in the infield. After receiving 16.2 wins above replacement from Garza and Bartlett, Tampa’s shrewed front office would move the pair for more prospects and useful parts including Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, Hak-Ju Lee, Cesar Ramos and Adam Russell. Once the Twins were finished with Young (or rather Young finished with the Twins depending on who you are asking), Smith was only able to fetch Cole Nelson and Lester Oliveros. What’s more is that the Twins wound up paying over $2 million more in salary for their return as well.

Meanwhile, the Santana trade was a poorly timed, poorly executed deal which is viewed as Smith swapping the cash cow for a pile of beans. While none of the beans amounted to much, Smith did manage to save over $10 million and only lost out on 1.2 WAR (only factoring in 2008 for Santana which would have been his walk year). At the time, reports came in that the Yankees and the Red Sox had better packages ready (with Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester being some of the names bantered around), but both teams ultimately rescinded their offers (if those offers were legit in the first place). Comparatively, Gomez and company seemed like a sheer fleecing by the Mets and Keith Law’s analysis had the Mets coming out on top:

“In the abstract, it's hard to accept dealing your marquee player and top trading asset without getting your partner's top young player in return, and that's what the Twins did. They did get back significant economic value in four young players, each of whom has under one year of big-league service and two of whom aren't even on the Mets' 40-man roster yet, so the Twins will have each of them under control for six full years of service. That return in exchange for just one year of Santana's services is reasonable. But premium players should fetch premium prices, because there's value to a club in having so much production coming from a single roster spot. And in this case, Minnesota GM Bill Smith did not get a premium prospect in return.”

In hindsight, Smith failed to get that premium prospect and now most of the Santana bounty is scattered across baseball. Would have waiting until the trade deadline open more avenues or create more trade scenarios than the one he was pigeon-holed into prior to the season?

Even though the Santana-for-Gomez  and the Garza-for-Young trades started his legacy off on the wrong foot, Smith and his team were able to piece together favorable trades after the more egregious ones. He grabbed Carl Pavano and Jon Rauch for a pittance. Orlando Cabrera and Brian Fuentes were also exchanged for little compensation. He landed JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez. Those moves together provided the Twins with 6.2 wins above replacement and only “cost” the team roughly $10 million in added salary.

After the handful of trades that worked towards the Twins favor, Smith began to execute what would be considered two of the more painful and damaging trades to the organization.

At the trade deadline in 2010, the Twins bullpen was shallow and in need of a boost. They targeted the Nationals’ closer Matt Capps. Capps, who was an All Star that season and performing well for the lowly NL East club, was far from a dominating arm. He was a step above Jon Rauch, whom the Twins acquired the year before at the waiver deadline for the flotsam known as Kevin Mulvey. Only instead of giving up a player of Mulvey’s caliber, the Twins offered up Wilson Ramos – the Twins top prospect as well as the 58th overall by Baseball America. With little offensive help at the upper levels, the utter depletion of the team in 2011 exposed how badly they needed someone like Ramos. Ramos did quite well for the Nationals – both offensively and defensively. He hit .267/.334/.445 with 15 home runs in 425 plate appearances. Capps, meanwhile, who was re-upped for this past season, regressed hard and was beat around while earning $7 million. While the jury is still out because Ramos’s career is just beginning, thus far the Twins have lost 3.1 wins above replacement and have paid over $8 million because of this deal.

While the intentions were never clear – payroll, performance, injury history, clubhouse mannerisms – the Twins decided that they needed to move on from shortstop J.J. Hardy. True, he had a shortened season in 2010 but his second-half numbers were indicitive of an elite player, not to mention at a very difficult to fulfill position. Whether it was his decision or someone else in the club’s call, Smith sent Hardy and Harris to Baltimore for a pair of damaged minor league arms in Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobsen. HoeyJacobsen floundered a bit in the minors attempting to develop a secondary offering as well. Hardy, on the other hand, smoked pitches all over Camden Yards armed with health and a new approach to pull the ball. This move cost the organization 5.2 wins in 2011 but managed to save $6 million in salary in the process.

While there were some notably disastrous trades made, overall Smith managed to lose just 10.3 wins above replacement but saved the team $7.67 million after all the wheeling and dealing was done.

Here’s the thing: It is hard to fully evaluate a GM’s tenure. There are no encompassing metric which neatly ties in free agent signings, trades, minor league development and amateur draft in a budget-neutralized context. Because of this, it’s hard to accurately compare the work of one organization to the next. Is saving almost $8 million in salary over the course of ten trades in four years good or bad? How about costing your team 10 wins over four seasons? Is that average for a GM?

Reviewing Smith’s trade track record, it is not hard to see that he likely has done more harm than good. While he was proficient at adding pieces in-season, his ability to build for the future through trades was atrocious. It is this area that newly appointed general manager Terry Ryan was particularly successful at. During his first administration, Ryan managed to build a competitive franchise by trading off soon-to-be departing players and the excess fat. With a system that is currently bottom-heavy and holes abound on the major league roster, installing someone like Ryan who has been lauded for his ability to extract talent from other teams is the right decision for the Twins. 

Twins excuse GM Bill Smith

In a somewhat unexpected turn of events, the Twins have excused general manager Bill Smith of his duties in the front office.

This comes shortly after the team declined the Baltimore Orioles the opportunity to interview Vice President of Player Personnel Mike Radcliff and the reports that they are trying to re-hire Wayne Krivsky, who was the Cincinnati Reds’ GM from 2006 to 2008. Clearly, ownership was not satisfied by the results generated by the current leadership.

According to Smith, on Friday he was notified that the Twins were going to insert Terry Ryan as the interim GM and allow Ryan to search for suitable replacements – which could very well be either Radcliff or Krivsky.

During a post-firing interview with 1500ESPN, Smith admitted that the two sides had “philosophical differences” in their approach. In his tenure as the GM, Smith had made plenty of trades that seemed highly questionable at the time and looked exponentially worse in retrospect – including his Johan Santana deal, the Garza-for-Young, Ramos-for-Capps and Hardy-for-Hoey and Jacobsen. While not necessarily alone on the decision, Smith green-lit signing Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a sizeable deal and the Japanese shortstop has been a complete disaster in year one of his contract. All of this has added up to an organization that is struggling to remain competitive in an improving AL Central.

Globally for the Twins, payroll increased but was allocated to only a handful of players while the farm system became dilapidated at the highest levels – a fact that came to light when the expensive talent was injured without major league-ready assistance available. When players did arrive, they failed to play at a level which the Twins had become accustom to and the once-touted “Twins way” was not being instilled properly to the younger players.

In another curious decision, when the Twins were seven games out with a week left until the non-waiver trade deadline and appeared out of the division race, the front office stood pat with its tradable commodities, refusing to move coveted soon-to-be free agents in Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel. While the team may get draft picks in return, the bounty at the deadline from desperate teams would have likely outweighed whatever supplemental pick the organization receives (and also grabbing players who would likely be able to contribute sooner rather than later). Who knows if that was just Smith’s decision but in the end someone needs to be there to make those types of tough calls.

To his credit, Smith and his team made in roads towards rebuilding the system, such as signing heralded international prospect Miguel Sano to a significant contract, as well as making some decent signings that provided some return on investment including Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson. While his headlining trades backfired or bore little fruit, Smith and his advisors managed to squeeze out some talent when acquiring such players like Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch and JJ Hardy. 

The Twins are at a major crossroad. There are numerous holes to fill, a small amount of money to play with and an even smaller amount of trade bait available. Whoever takes over the player acquisition role this winter, they will have a tall task ahead of them of addressing the current and future needs of the franchise. 

The OtB 2011 Offseason Blueprint

When we started creating the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook two years ago, the idea was to place the reader in the position of the Twins general manager. We would provide as much information about the organization from top to bottom, as well as the free agent market, for the reader to make the most educated  

It feels as if there is some common misconception that Bill Smith is making all the offseason decisions by himself in a bubble. True, his position is where the buck stops however Mr. Smith is not alone in the process. He has recommendations and suggestions from various sources within the organization. Some may have one solution for shortstop while another may have a completely different answer for the middle infield problem. The general manager must take all of these ideas into consideration and devise a plan of action. In essence, that’s what we at TwinsCentric have attempted to provide you in our Offseason GM Handbooks – the chance to take all of the available information, a handful of recommendations and ultimately make your decision for the 2012 Twins season.

To take it one step further, we highly advise that you jot together what your 2012 roster would be for the Twins. As Nick Nelson outlined earlier in the week, if you send us your blueprint (send to TwinsCentric@gmail.com) we’ll send a copy of our forthcoming Maple Street Twins Annual 2012 to an entrant drawn at random.  

So pick up a copy of the 2011 TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook and study up. Until then, here’s my recommendation from that eBook:

(1) Let Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel walk.

As difficult as it will be for clubhouse morale, the market will likely make Cuddyer’s contract too rich of a deal to keep the aging outfielder around. Outside of his leadership, his versatility and ability to crush left-handed pitching will be sorely missed. Jason Kubel too will be forced out of the club based on his increased pay scale. At just 29 years old, it will be difficult to watch him go as he has raked when healthy. At the very least, the Twins can take comfort in knowing they will receive a pair of supplemental pick in the 2012 draft further rebuilding a pipeline that hasn’t function well as of late.

(2) Offer arbitration to Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla and Glen Perkins.

(3) Trade for Colby Lewis.

I don’t recommend building through trades with the current status of the organization – the farm system is gruel thin at the top and sparse in key positions throughout. But Colby Lewis’s ability to throw 200 innings at a pauper’s rate is too attractive to pass up.

Texas is rumored to be looking at Yu Darvish and will also be interested in keeping C.J. Wilson as well. With those two combined with three other young arms it might make the 31-year-old Colby Lewis expendable. Lewis a very good pitchers hidden behind some m’eh numbers the past two seasons (26-23, 4.06 ERA but 56 HRs allowed in 64 games) and owed just $3.25 million in 2012. Arlington’s hitter-friendly environment did not play well to Lewis’s style as the strike-thrower had 22 home runs tagged off him at The Ballpark. A season at Target Field should cure what ails him there.

The Twins made inroads to signing Lewis before the 2010 season after his successful Japan campaign but were thwarted by the Rangers – the organization who gave Lewis his first chance. The question is what would it take for the Twins to acquire him now? For the most part, the Rangers are set for the next several years in both the offense and pitching departments. But they need for space and Lewis’s gopher ball tendencies may help decrease his value in Texas’s eyes. Meanwhile, the Twins don’t have much in terms of MLB-ready prospects so it may take some lower-level prospects to entice Rangers GM Jon Daniels to make a deal. I’d offer Bruce Pugh, the 22 year old relief prospect who struck out 75 in 64 innings split between Fort Myers and New Britain, and Michael Tonkin, 21 year old reliever with 69 strikeouts in 76.2 innings at Beloit. Both prospects have very good upsides but Lewis is a very cheap and reliable starting pitcher.

(4) Trade Kevin Slowey (and prospect) to Colorado for catcher Chris Iannetta.

With Lewis in the mix, this creates an opportunity to move Kevin Slowey whose salary will be, uh, embiggering. From Minnesota’s perspective, right or wrong, Slowey has become what some suggest is a malcontent, a player who rejected his initial assignment out of spring camp and has been constantly dealing with minor injuries. Meanwhile, Iannetta, also sidelined with injuries, is a right-handed catcher who is capable of starting. 

The Rockies need to further improve their rotation for 2012. After trading Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland this past year, they may lose veteran Aaron Cook and will be left with a myriad of solid prospects (Drew Pomeranz headlining that group) that might not be ready for the big league role. Slowey’s experience, upside (he has a very good 4.70 K/BB ratio in his career) and two seasons of club control still ahead may be enticing enough to Colorado to move their one-time starting catcher. His shaky outings in 2011 won’t be enough to pry away Iannetta and will like require another prospect.

For the Twins, Iannetta represents the thing that they desperately needed this season when Joe Mauer broke down – a legitimate starting catching option. The right-handed hitting Iannetta has put up outstanding numbers since assuming regular duties in Denver back in ’07. Among those catchers with a minimum of 1000 plate appearances, Iannetta’s offense, with a .347 wOBA, has been the seventh-best trailing such luminaries as Mauer, Jose Posada, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann. Of course, with your home stadium up in the mountains, you can’t ignore the influence of the altitude. For Iannetta, this has meant a home OPS 162 points higher than when he is outside of the Rockies. Admittedly, this doesn’t necessarily bode well for a transition over to Target Field.

What Iannetta does possess are attributes such as patience (a 13.9% career walk rate) and the ability to slaughter left-handed pitching (a career .252/.391/.520 hitter against southpaws). These factors should play well for the Twins who have lost Michael Cuddyer to free agency and can use Iannetta in a DH role versus tougher lefties, if necessary.

It is possible that Mauer is able to catch the bulk of games this season but Iannetta is the insurance policy that they should have had ready in Wilson Ramos.

(5) Sign free agents David Dejesus (1 year, $5.5M), Derrek Lee (1 year, $5M), Clint Barmes (2 years, $8M) and Laynce Nix (1 year, $1.5M).

David DeJesus is coming off a down year as well as two straight with his thumb issue but he is still an elite defender in the corner outfield position. In right field for the A’s last year, his Plus/Minus rating of +21 plays was the second-best in that position. Offensively, he’s a near-perfect candidate for the two-spot as he has a high on-base history (career .356 OBP) and decent speed (Orlando Hudson-ish level). I believe he is primed for a rebound season because he suffered from the dreaded unlucky BABIP year. A line drive hitter by nature (over 20% line drive rate), DeJesus also hits a ton of grounders but held a .183 BABIP on those in ‘11 – well below his career norm of .245. This should correct itself in 2012 and he should hit closer to his career line of .284/.356/.421 once again.

While many thought Derrek Lee was washed up or overmatched by American League pitching early this year, a late season surge has some thinking there is something left in the tank. Following a trade to Pittsburgh, team doctors discovered that Lee had a bone fracture in his hand and sat out most of the month of August. When he returned in September, the healthy Lee went 29-for-83 (.349) with five home runs. He’s particularly attractive to the Twins as he uses the big part of the field, hitting line drives to center over 22% of the time. He can play first well in the event Justin Morneau is unable to go but his main focus should be as the designated hitter.

Yes, the Twins have plenty of internal options at short but all of them are shaky at best. Barmes has been a very good defender at short. When he was the starter in Colorado in 2006, his defense was the second-best according to the Plus/Minus system. Given the starting role again in Houston this year, he finished third among shortstops defensively. His offensive is substandard but for a contact-oriented team like the Twins, 2010 showed how vital it is to have high-caliber defenders.

Finally, the Twins are going to need some depth and versatility on the bench. I am keeping Tsuyoshi Nishioka (plays middle infield, should improve) and Trevor Plouffe (infield and corner outfield) but will add Laynce Nix as a fourth outfielder and pinch hitter. Defensively, Nix has been a decent corner outfielder, has performed well against right-handed pitching (.792 OPS since ’09) and has 123 pinch hits in the past three seasons (fifth-most in that time).

Now on to the bullpen…

(6) Sign Octavio Dotel (1 year, $3.75M) and Michael Wuertz (1 year, $1M)

The Twins skimped on bullpen arms last year. This is fine if they targeted the right individuals but instead they wound up with Dusty Hughes and Jim Hoey. Glen Perkins proved that he is capable of being a high-quality set-up man but the rest of the ‘pen was in shambles. Fortunately, we can retain Joe Nathan, Perkins and move Brian Duensing to the pen to handle left-handed heavy portions of the opponents’ order.

Dotel would give the Twins a strikeout guy and is very effective against right-handed opponents. In fact, since 2009, he has struck out 32.6% of righties faced – sixth-best in that time – while holding them to a .179 batting average against. If able to be locked in for just the one year, he would be a very good compliment to Perkins in the late innings role.

To take a page out of the Rays’ playbook, Wuertz is the kind of inexpensive talent they would roll the dice on. Sure, he’s got plenty of problems, he has suffered shoulder injuries the past two seasons, his fastball’s velocity was down to 88-mph last year and his command was nearly non-existent. However, because of his slider that he favors, he still was able to get a swing-and-miss at a very high clip (12.4%). In the season’s first-half, he was effective, throwing 25.1 innings with a 2.49 ERA and a good 23/12 K/BB ratio. On top of that, he held opponents to a .189 batting average against. From July onward he struggled mightily, throwing 8.1 innings with a 9/14 K/BB ratio and a repugnant .476 batting average against. For a million bucks (or more hopefully a minor league deal), the gamble that Wuertz can regain his early season success is merited.

After these moves, this is what you end up with for the 2012 season:

(Click to embiggen)

This roster addresses some of the team’s more critical needs including middle infield defense, adding professional hitters, bench depth, strengthening the rotation and putting a power arm in the bullpen. With the exception of Lewis and Iannetta, all moves were made without dipping into the farm system. Likewise, payroll was pared down to near $110 million. 

Despite fewer innings, Denard Span gets glove love

John Dewan and company at Baseball Info Solutions announced their winners for the 2011 Fielding Bible awards. And just like the Gold Gloves, the Twins were once again shut out. However some members of the team actually received a scattering of votes including Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Mauer, Drew Butera and Nick Blackburn.

To me, the most surprising to see was Span.

A year ago, Span was completely left off of the list. At that time, I was somewhat flabbergasted by the development. While Span did not look entirely comfortable out in center field for the first time, he still managed to put up respectable fielding numbers (including by Dewan’s own accounting system, the Plus/Minus). Frankly, I felt as if he were a top ten defender despite all of the miscues.

One of the reasons Span had difficulties in the field in 2010 was his new environs. A Twins insider told me during last offseason that Span struggled at Target Field as the alleged wind current that helps push fly balls back onto the field in the right-center gap also affected plenty of other fly balls on the field. This was difficult for Span to adjust to. Without the home/road UZR split that was once available at Fangraphs.com, there’s no way of seeing if that was indeed an influential factor.

Limited to 585 innings in the field in 2011, Span looked much improved in his fielding. Based on observation, he appeared more confident playing the in-between flies and captained the outfield much better. The metrics also support this. According to the revised zone rating, a number similar to fielding percentage which calculates the number of plays a center fielder should make in a designated zone, Span had his jump from .935 in ’10 to a MLB-best .969 in ’11. He committed just one error this past season versus four in 2010. In the end, his flawed yet often telling UZR/150 stat shot up from 4.5 last year to 17.6 this season.  

There’s no question he was a better defender yet it is interesting how he went from zero consideration in 2010 – no votes at all among the 10-judge panel – to getting top five nods, including a number three choice from Bill James and one overall mark from the honorable Peter Gammons. To summarize, the voters a year ago thought 22 other center fielders were more worthy of Fielding Bible votes over him but this year he’s shot up to number one in Gammons’ book.

While I don’t begin to understand why exactly it is that Span went from an afterthought to a frontrunner, I can speculate that the ones who did vote highly on Span likely did so based on the aforementioned series of stats – the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) and UZR/150. Fangraphs leaderboard has Denard Span leading all candidates with a minimum of 500 innings in the RZR category and a somewhat distant third in the UZR/150:

Center Fielders by UZR/150 (min 500 innings)
Name	Inn	RZR	OOZ	UZR	UZR/150
Carlos Gomez	569	0.918	61	12	27.5
Franklin Gutierrez	763	0.949	51	15.2	27.1
Denard Span	585.1	0.969	51	9	17.6
Andres Torres	776	0.95	62	8.7	17.3
Jacoby Ellsbury	1358.1	0.949	91	15.6	15.7
Ben Revere	776.1	0.948	81	8.5	15.1
Nyjer Morgan	724.2	0.935	73	7.1	13.4

(via Fangraphs.com)

Frankly, Span looked good enough in 2010 to earn some top ten or top five votes. In limited time in the field, he certainly displayed that type of play as well this year.

While the outcome of his concussion is still a huge unknown – you can look no further than teammate Justin Morneau to see how volatile it is – Span was able to come back at the end of the season and log some playing time. That may be a positive sign for 2012. If he is able to return to playing condition and perform this well on the field in addition to providing pre-concussion offensive numbers (.300/.367/.392 in 251 plate appearances), the Twins will have a very formidable up-the-middle defender and top-of-the-lineup hitter

For more on the Twins’ 2012 lineup and outlook, check out our TwinsCentric Offseason GMHandbook.

Quick Hits: Nathan eyeing the Mets, Madson a Twins option & more Iwakuma

Joe Nathan told reporters during a ceremony for the dedication of the baseball field which will bear his name at Stony Brook University in New York that the Mets “are going to be on my radar”.

Seeing as this was in New York and covered by local reporters, it is only natural that the question regarding the Mets’ closer vacancy comes up. I do believe that his answer is more lip service than a genuine interest in the team. That said, there will be plenty of teams who should have him on their radar as well. His second-half performance suggests that he is capable of providing high-quality work and his recent injury history coupled with his age likely equates to a bargain price (in years and dollars). In the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, we have him scheduled for a contract for two-years at $7 million per.

In my personal offseason blueprint, I had encouraged re-signing Joe Nathan for the $7M but after more consideration – and depending how the market develops for Nathan – I’m leaning towards giving Glen Perkins a chance as a close and build the bullpen from the bottom up rather than the top down. Perkins has the capability and stuff to be a solid closer and in the small sampling he compiled in 2011, he seemed to work well in high leverage situations (2.83 xFIP). This would save the team $5 million to address other needs.

Regardless of who assumes the closers role, the Twins bullpen needs plenty of attention this offseason - one way or another. 

Newsday’s Ken Davidoff released his annual MLB free agent rankings and predictions. Among them, Davidoff thinks that the Phillies closer, Ryan Madson, will sign with the Twins for a three-year, $27 million contract.

Madson has been a very productive reliever in the Phillies bullpen since 2003 but last season was his first sustained shot at being the team’s closer. He responded well by working in 62 games while posting a 2.37 ERA with a solid 62/16 K/BB ratio. He’s armed with a mid-90s fastball that he complements with a devastating changeup – one that has been baseball’s best since 2009 according the Fangraphs.com’s pitch value (25.3 runs above average). This past season opponents missed on 57% of their swings while hitting just .085 off of it.

He’s a high strikeout, low-walk rate type of reliever that the Twins under normal circumstances would be interested in. The problem is I just do not see the Twins investing three years in to any one for the bullpen. After all, it was one of the reasons (for better or worse) they refrained from re-signing either Jesse Crain or Matt Guerrier at the end of the 2010 season.

Again, similar to the Nathan situation, I believe the Twins would be better served not committing that money to a closer but earmarking that payroll towards filling other needs in the rotation, bullpen and middle infield. 

One potential Twins starting pitching target, Hisashi Iwakuma, made his intentions known regarding his desire to play in the US, saying he was going to “exercise international free agency.”

The Twins have had interest in the 30-year-old Iwakuma as recently as last winter so there will likely be explorations with his agent to see what sort of money he will be looking for. Last year, he was rumored to have been seeking a high sum out of Oakland to which the A’s were not willing to pay. Now, without the hindrance of purchasing his negotiating rights from his Japanese team, Iwakuma figures to make it to the MLB as a B-level free agent this year.

He’s stacked up inning in Japan and completed plenty of games. So if a better option like Mark Buehrle is not willing to leave Chicago, Iwakuma shares a similar profile to Buehrle and could draw attention for other suitors. In theory, he’s got better stuff (including a splitter that has been compared to Dan Haren’s) but it is hard to tell if that will play well on this side of the Pacific as those pitchers making the transition have had mixed results.