Offensive success is possible at Target Field

Much like Festivus on Seinfeld, the conclusion of the Twins season always brings forth the “airing of the grievances” – most of them center on the big ballpark downtown.

This year, Delmon Young, fresh off of punishing the Yankees, took time to explain his recent outburst (6-for-19 with 3 HRs including the game-winner in Game 3) and why he underperformed in the season’s first-half. According to Young:

“Target Field changed my whole field of hitting. I usually tried to use the middle of the field, and if I pulled, I pulled, and if I went the other way, I went the other way.

At Target Field, when those balls turn into can-of-corn outs and I was fighting for playing time over there, I couldn’t afford to have a flyout to deep right field. I had to try to pull the ball to get a base hit.”

This is not the first time Young sounded off about his former team’s configurations. Last year, Young groused about the same issues, telling reporters that if he tried to hit the ball to left or left-center the ball would die.

When you review the 2011 home run hit chart by right-handed batters at Target Field, you will notice that Young was absolutely correct in his observation:

Just three balls were hit by right-handed batters that cleared the fence to the opposite field and another five to center field. Comparatively, in 2009 the Metrodome had 20 home runs by right-handed bats which went out to right and center fields. Clearly, if you are going to have right-handed power in Minneapolis, it needs to be as a pull hitter.

Reviewing his batted ball splits, it is no small wonder that Young suffered at Target Field and felt the need to turn on the ball. In the past two seasons, Young has held the lowest line drive rate to the middle of the field (14.1%) among qualified hitters. While he was successful at sneaking those grounders back through the box, plenty of his fly balls were likely stood up in center field. 

JJ Hardy, who struggled offensively at Target Field, last year hitting .252/.313/.340, had told reporters in the spring following his trade to the Orioles that in 2010 he was trying to “stay on top of the ball and go the other way more.” The Orioles hitting instructor took one look at this approach and said – to paraphrase – “aw HELL no.” In Jim Presley’s eyes, Hardy was a power-hitting shortstop, one that he witnessed first-hand while coaching in Florida and Hardy was crushing for the Brewers. So Hardy made some adjustments and began turning on pitches ferociously. The end results would make any Twins fan sick to their stomachs as the castoff shortstop popped off for 30 home runs and a .491 slugging percentage. 

Would simply having Hardy pull the ball more have paid off for the Twins? It is hard to say but this method does not always bear fruit at Target Field as Danny Valencia proved.

When Valencia put up his impressive rookie numbers in 2010, he had demonstrated that he was able use the big part of the field – hitting line drives to center at a 22.5% clip. This aided him at home where he hit .386/.418/.561. This year, Valencia was called out by his manager for trying to “swing for the fences” and abandoning the technique that had him producing well. Valencia wound up pulling the ball more and hitting line drives to center at a significantly lower clip (15%). He ended up hitting more home runs at home (9) but hit .257/ .307/.400 at Target Field overall. In this instance, focusing on pulling the ball was an obvious detriment to his game.

Young is far from the only Twin to make this observation about the right field region. Justin Morneau made a fairly public spectacle by ranting about the fencing to the Star Tribune almost immediately after the Twins were bounced from the playoffs a year ago. When he returned to action this season following his concussion, part of his issue at the plate was that he was pulling off on the ball with his front hip. Although I attributed it to rust back in May, perhaps this was an ill-fated attempt to try to yank the ball down the line more where lefties have had more home run success.

Jason Kubel said that he changed his approach in 2010 too, attempting to pull the ball down the line but ultimately wound up going back to his previous method when all he had to show for it was a few extra home runs. This season, he said he worked on hitting more line drives (which he did to some extend) and this resulted in more doubles rather than the long fly outs in the fly-killing power alleys. Through his first 102 plate appearances he was hitting .351/.392/.511 with nine doubles to just two home runs but then his numbers leveled off as he started to elevate more fly balls for long outs:

"That's why when I started out this year, I was more contact-oriented, focusing on hitting line drives all over the place. It was working out. But now I'm starting to get balls in the air, and I've hit 'em good. But they're outs. So it's tough. I'm not as big or as strong as Jim Thome; I can't just do that."

Kubel’s first two months of the season showed that the key to having success is simply keeping the ball on a rope. Now, as an impending free agent, there is a strong chance that he will not be with the team in 2012 and once again, the Twins will have to have someone new decipher how to hit in this ballpark.

What does this mean for the Twins and their offseason shopping list?

If the Twins are looking for power this offseason that needs to come in the form of hitters who have shown pop as pull hitters but mostly have had success using the middle of the field. As we have seen the past two seasons, players who have a tendency to drive fly balls to the power alleys and deep center are likely going to be demoralized for 81 games a year. Target Field can reward dead-pull hitters or those who hit line drives to the middle of the park (one of the reasons Valencia had strong numbers in ’10).

One such free agent that may fit that bill is Derrek Lee. True, in his first foray into the American League he appeared overmatched when hitting .246/.302/.404 in 364 plate appearances in Baltimore. However, his second-half with Pittsburgh was fairly strong. Plus, he exemplifies the attributes that just might play well at home: Dating back to 2009, Lee has the sixth-highest line drive rate up the middle (22.9%). 

Another name on the free agent list that may be intriguing is Magglio Ordonez. While he has suffered a rash of injuries and is aging quickly, he showed life at the end of the season as he hit .385/.397/.477 in his final 19 games. Similar to Lee, Ordonez has a high line drive rate in the middle of the field (22.6%) since 2009.

Most teams target players whose skill set will play to their home-field advantage. The Red Sox gave Adrian Gonzalez a butt-ton of money because of his ability to drive the ball the other way. As a left-handed hitter, this meant that he could punch double-after-double off of the Green Monster. The Yankees traded for Curtis Granderson who they felt would perform well with the extremely short porch in right field. The Twins should recognize that their home field advantage – while not as performance-enhancing as Boston or New York’s – is the spacious center field. By targeting up-the-middle, line drive hitters the Twins will position themselves well to combat opposing teams who remain flustered by the home stadium’s frustrating effects. 

Did you know...

Carl Pavano allowed 262 hits this year – which is the 169^th time someone has allowed 262 hits or more since 1961. None too impressive, right? Yet it is just the fifth time since 2000 that someone has allowed 262 hits or more – mostly because of the inning allotment necessary in addition to the patience required by the front office to allow that sort of punishment to continue. The others on that list are Sidney Ponson (265 , 2004), David Wells (266, 2000), Livan Hernandez – twice (266, 2001, 268, 2005) and Tanyon Sturtze (271, 2002). Excellent company.

Speaking of Pavano, his fastball was the second-worst in baseball last year. According to Fangraphs.com’s pitch value statistic, his fastball was 24.5 runs below average (or approximately two and a half losses). Interestingly, his regularly battery mate, Drew Butera, also proved to be quite inept when it comes to fastballs. He found himself at 23.9 runs below average when hitting against fastballs (or approximately two and a half losses). This was the worst mark in the American League.

Pavano’s 42% chase rate on his offspeed pitches was the best in the American League and second in baseball behind some guy named Roy Halladay (45%).

Ben Revere led all of baseball in grounders with a 68.5 percent ground ball rate. This has been the highest rate of bouncers hit (outside of Roadhouse of course) in Fangraphs.com’s batted ball warehouse. Fangraphs.com’s data starts in 2002. Likewise, Revere also holds the lead for fewest fly balls hit (11.6%) as well.

What’s more is that his strength was not pulling the ball this season: Revere’s .389 OPS on balls that he pulled is the lowest in baseball. Part of the reason for this is because he was terrible at making solid contact when being pitched inside. According to Inside Edge, Revere’s well-hit average on pitches inside was .036 – the fourth-worst in baseball.

Revere put 60% of the fastballs thrown to him in to play – the second-highest rate in baseball behind San Francisco’s Jeff Keppinger (61%).

Alexi Casilla (6.8%) saw fewer sliders than anyone else in baseball with a minimum of 250 plate appearances.

Michael Cuddyer’s .993 OPS versus left-handed pitching was the sixth-best in baseball.

Don’t throw Cuddyer a change-up (like many left-handed pitchers did), he crushed them to the tune of 9 runs above average (roughly one win). Overall, his .341 batting average on offspeed pitches was the fifth-best in baseball.

Nobody squared up on right-handed pitching like Joe Mauer did. His 27.7% line drive rate against righties led the majors. On the other hand, his backstop mate, Drew Butera, held baseball’s lowest OPS against righties at .403.

If you threw anything to Mauer over the midsection of the plate (horizontal), the chances are that it was thwacked pretty hard. The often-injured catcher/DH/first baseman/right fielder held a .273 well-hit average on pitches in the zone. The next closes was Boston’s David Ortiz at .217.

Drew Butera’s .449 OPS narrowly missed being the worst in Twins history thanks to a 4-for-8 outburst in the final week of the season. The honors for worst offensive season with a minimum of 250 plate appearances still belongs to Jerry Zimmerman and his .436 OPS in 267 plate appearances. For what it’s worth, Butera joins the blessed Twins hall of sub-.500 OPS members including Houston Jimenez (1984), Danny Thompson (1970), Ron Clark (1968), Al Newman (1991) and, of course, Zimmerman (1967).

The Twins had two of the three worst hitters for pitches down in the zone. Butera led all players with a .032 well-hit average while Tsuyoshi Nishioka was the third-worst at .040.

Butera’s .142 batting average on fastballs was the worst in baseball.

Battle of the soon-to-be free agents: Jason Kubel had the fifth-highest batting average on line drives in play (.817) while Cuddyer had the eleven-lowest batting average on line drives in play (.603). One thing this could tell potential suitors is that Kubel’s 2011 season was on the lucky side while Cuddyer was not nearly as charmed.

Denard Span and Jim Thome both chased after just 10% of non-competitive pitches (those well out of the strike zone) – tied for third-best in baseball.

Francisco Liriano’s ability to get strike one was horrendous this year. His 49.4% first-pitch strike rate was the sixth-worst in a season since 2002. He also threw his fastball for a strike just 53% of the time – the worst among starters.

Nearly 30% of the batters Liriano faced went to three ball counts (27% vs 20% league average). That was the highest mark among qualified starters.

When Liriano does hit the strike zone, he’s clearly hard to hit. Liriano’s 21% swinging-and-miss percentage on strikes was the second-highest in baseball trailing only Atlanta’s Brandon Beachy in that department.

Just 16% of runners Scott Baker put on base scored. That was the third lowest rate among starters.

Kevin Slowey lost 8 starts in a row. The most recent time that happened was by Boof Bonser in 2007. Oddly enough, in their respective losing streaks, they both worked 44.2 innings, allowed 59 hits each and had 36 runs scored on them.

Parmelee's September to Remember

Its funny how small sample size success can frequently send a fan base atwitter.


True, Chris Parmelee posted one of baseball’s best weighted On-Base Averages (wOBA) in the past month. He raked to the tune of .355/.443/.592 with four home runs and six doubles in just shy of a hundred plate appearances. And, all in all, it was one of the best September call-up performances in recent memory.


Still, it is difficult to project a player’s true capabilities just based on a one-month sampling – even if you are combining it with his recent minor league track record.


To be sure, there is plenty to like about Parmelee’s potential just based on his smattering of at bats this year:

• He has shown a keen understanding of the strike zone. His 28% out-of-zone chase rate was below the league’s average meaning he was not helping the pitchers’ out. Because of this, he was able to draw 12 walks (compared to 13 strikeouts).

• Likewise, he keeps his hands back to handle breaking and off-speed stuff extremely well. This led to a low swing-and-miss rate of 22% on curves/sliders along with a .813 slugging percentage as several of his balls in play went for extra bases. Not chasing breaking stuff out of the strike zone will tend to result in a smaller strikeout rate.

• Mechanically, he keeps his hands inside the ball too. This has allowed him to get around quickly on the inside pitch and drive it. Keeping one’s hands in can equate to more power from that leveraged position while incorporating the entire body (rather than swinging with just your arms).

These elements are solid building blocks for a fundamentally sound hitter. Additionally, Parmelee has also shown that he can make modifications too. Beginning two years ago, he axed his upper-cut swing in favor of a more leveled one. This yielded an almost immediate difference in his performance as he cut down on the amount of strikeouts and increased his line drive rate substantially:

 

TwinsCentric’s Nick Nelson did a thorough job of analyzing Parmelee’s cup of coffee and pumping the brakes for those who yearn for something to believe in with this organization. Nelson particularly advised about getting too amped up over his power output based on his September numbers – which I completely agree with. While Parmelee has a powerful swing and, at 24 years old in 2012, he could develop more pop, at the same time, there are plenty of similar prospects who have murdered it in a small section of the season only to be knocked back down to size.


One such extreme example is the Rangers’ Taylor Teagarden.


In 2008, the catching prospect was having a middling season in the minors but received a September call-up. Prior to joining Texas, Teagarden hit .211/.319/.374 with nine home runs in 286 plate appearances split between AAA and AA. Yet when he reached the majors he had a monster of a month, hitting .341/.426/.829 with five home runs in 36 plate appearances. Following the ‘08 season, based on his late season performance, Teagarden’s name was often cited by the Boston Red Sox as one of the potential targets to eventually replace the aging incumbent Jason Varitek. Instead, the Rangers opted to hang on to Teagarden - along with backstop partner Jarrod Saltalamacchia – only to be rewarded with a .205/.268/.356 line since then (and in a freakin’ hitter’s park, no less).


Teagarden’s story is fairly consistent of what happens to a lot of hitters that have talent but do not demonstrate the ability to respond once the competition adjusts to them. In September ’08, opponents fed Teagarden a steady stream of fastballs. Over 70% of his pitches were fastballs and the right-hander hit .407 on them resulting in an incredible value of 8.1 runs above average. Not surprising, the following season Teagarden saw fewer fastballs coming his way and, when he did get one, he was not able to do much with it. It got to the point where he was sent back to AA to figure it out.


Now, this is not to say that Teagarden’s misfortunes will end with the same results for Parmelee, but it is a cautionary tale of how, when given time to study, scouts can adapt quickly. As the Strib’s Joe Christensen pointed out, teams will eventually find his soft spot:


“[T]here are holes in his swing that big league scouts are sure to exploit by the time he starts facing teams a second time”


As it stands right now, Parmelee’s holes are so obvious it can be seen from space.


Parmelee’s biggest strengths are inside and down in the zone. In fact, lower in the hitting zone the better: According to Inside Edge, he has a .203 well-hit average on all his swing down in the zone (.087 MLB average). On the other hand, he clearly has a fairly significant hole in his swing when it comes to pitches up and over the plate:

His ability to keep his hands in also hinders his ability to reach the outer-half of the plate. In the most basic terms, step one of the opposition’s game plan would be to implement cutbacks on the amount of pitches thrown down in the zone and step two would be to feed him more fastballs up and out over the plate.


This doesn’t necessarily mean that Parmelee will experience a collapse like Teagarden did – it simply means that he is less likely of getting “his pitch” (down in the zone) and more likely to get more of those up and out over the plate. As you can see in the chart below, teams already started to focus on that area of the zone. To his credit, Parmelee displayed an adept amount of patience on the majority of those pitches – recognizing it is better to not swing at the ones he knows he can’t handle:

Overall, Parmelee’s offensive attributes are impressive. He has shown veteran-like comprehension of the strike zone, a keen ability to adjust to the breaking and off-speed stuff, a tight swing that gives him power on the inner-half and has demonstrated that he is capable of making changes. With Justin Morneau a huge question mark for next season, while he may never reach the power levels of Morneau, there is some comfort in knowing that Parmelee, who appears very close to a finished product, is readily available.

*****

Now that the Twins' season is over, DiamondCentric has plenty designs avialable on sale - including the Thome Is My Homey, 600 Naturally, FranKKKKKie!, I Love Koobs! and others. 

If you are looking for a fall diversion, DiamondCentric now has a football-themed shirt celebrating the greatest day of the week during autumn: Sunday Funday.

This is the end.

The 2011 Twins season is mercifully over.

It’s odd. When the Twins’ season ended last year, TwinsCentric focused on how the front office can get our team past the New York Yankees during the offseason. This winter, we’re hoping the front office is able to get past the Royals.

The TwinsCentric crew – Nick Nelson, Seth Stohs, John Bonnes and I – will be presenting our Offseason GM Handbook in the coming week. Until then, I hope to provide you with some various statistical breakdowns and some video analysis in this space.

Thanks again for those that have stopped by – even when the baseball was the furthest thing from the minds of most Twins fans. If you have any questions, statements, thoughts or insights, please leave a comment below, email me at TwinsFanc1981@gmail.com or follow me on twitter (@OverTheBaggy). 

Infield Hits: Death by papercuts?

I have spent plenty of time in this space dedicated to the deterioration of the Twins’ infield defense. The once flourishing empire has crumbled into a shell of its former self.

We know that the 2011 infield defense has been both porous and error-prone – a lethal combination for the home team – but it is equally terrible at converting balls that remain in the infield to outs just the same. Heading into last night’s game, the Twins infield had allowed 198 infield hits, by far the most in the AL. That’s also 25 more than they allowed last season. They have allowed 17 more hits than the next closest team, the Chicago White Sox, and a whopping 56 more infield hits than the Boston Red Sox who have allowed the fewest hits within the infield area.

On Monday it was the Twins inability to turn grounders that stay within the infield dirt into outs proved to be their ultimate demise as they allowed another FIVE infield hits.

Kevin Slowey cruised through the first five innings while scattering several hits. Unfortunately, some of those scattered we ones that could have been turned into outs. With one out in the first, Melky Cabrera hit a slow chopper towards shortstop Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe was unable to make the play on the ball and get the speedy Cabera at first. Then, by means of small ball, the Royals were able to move Cabrera to third and score him on an Eric Hosmer sacrifice fly.

Admittedly, the play was somewhat difficult – especially considering from where Plouffe was starting from – but it is not a play that we haven’t seen more athletic shortstops make in the past. But, to be fair, the Royals are one of baseball’s speedier team – racking up 154 infield hits of their own, the second-most in MLB – so it’s difficult to put tonight’s five infield hits entirely on the Twins defense.

That stood as the Royals only run until the sixth inning. Once again it was Cabrera who singled on an infield grounder to Plouffe and once again, the Royals moved Cabrera around to score. Now, Slowey – who was on the brink of collapsing as he is wont to do this season – was not helping his cause at this point either. In fact, he threw 97 pitches and got just 4 swinging strikes (all on fastballs). At the juncture, he was giving up loud outs and hard-hit balls all over the yard.

Kevin Slowey (2011)
Split	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st PA in G, as SP	63	7	14	2	0	4	10.00	.233	.254	.467	.721
2nd PA in G, as SP	63	12	17	4	2	2	7.00	.283	.317	.517	.834
3rd PA in G, as SP	42	11	18	5	0	1	3.50	.486	.500	.703	1.203

(via Baseball-Reference.com)

It is impossible to predict the outcome if the Twins had been able to get some of those outs.  Still, you have to wonder, if Plouffe had been able to make either play on Cabrera, the Royals would likely have not scored – certainly not in the first. Plus, making those plays would have shaved off possibly 10 or so pitches off of Slowey’s pitch count. Is it possible that that would have gotten him through the sixth?

Beyond just last night, think about that on a larger scale – How many additional pitches on the pitching staffs arms? How many runs do 25 additional base runners equate to? Could that be at least a five-win difference on the basis of the infield defense alone?

When the season ends in a few days, one of the biggest offseason priorities should be to find a way to stop the hemorrhaging in the infield.