Michael Cuddyer is the Twins All-Star Representative

Baseball announced their All Star rosters and – without much surprise – the Twins delegate to the game in Arizona is Michael Cuddyer.

Cuddyer’s numbers have been solid, if unspectacular, while the rest of the Minnesota cast has been hurt for a portion of the season, allowing an opening for the veteran. His versatility and power against southpaws will give the AL team some flexibility. Of course, as it stands right now, the NL has only three left-handed pitchers on their roster (Kershaw, Lee and Hamels) which means Cuddyer will probably not see a favorable match-up when he is inserted into the late innings of the game.

Personally, I would have selected Scott Baker over Michael Cuddyer, but likely based on Baker’s pedestrian win-loss record despite outstanding peripherals, the committee passed him by. What’s more is the deep list of AL pitchers who have performed well enough to merit inclusion on the roster. If CC Sabathia was not deemed worthy, Baker had no chance.

Nevertheless, a hearty congratulations is due to Cuddyer. After a season in which plenty of questions were raised about his power that had disappeared after a big drop in 2010, he has rebounded well in 2011. 

Scott Baker is this good. Believe it.

On Wednesday, in an apparent showing of solidarity for the state employees who will be laid off during the government shutdown, the Minnesota Twins’ bats also stopped working.

Fortunately for the team, Scott Baker was on the mound.

Baker, with the help of the bullpen, stifled the Dodger lineup, shutting them out and walking away from the game with a 1-0 victory. With those scoreless 7.1 innings of work, he is now the owner of a sterling 3.15 ERA, a very good 3.44 xFIP and 101 strikeouts on the season. And, with numbers like those, Baker has emerged as the most reliable member of the rotation.

There isn’t anything special behind Baker’s return to success. There is no new cutter, pumped up velocity or an increased reliance on an off-speed pitch. It boils down to his health which has led to better command. Baker has always exercised an impressively small walk rate but his struggles in 2010 were not because he wasn’t throwing strikes – it was that he was consistently missing his spots within the zone. In short, his potentially dominating stuff had found inopportune times to lapse.

Far too often it seemed we witnessed Baker attempting to drill the catcher’s target on the outer-half of the plate only to have his pitch wander back over the dish and become an empty rawhide shell with a screaming ball of yarn headed towards the right field bleachers. If it wasn’t that it was fastballs that were called for down in the zone which wound up rising like a hot air balloon (and, given the 23 home runs in170 innings in 2010, it may have been what opponents saw headed their direction). Rather than the crisp sliders, we saw too many cement mixers that just spun at belt level.

Nevertheless, buried beneath cloak of constant cookies was the fact that – as John Bonnes correctly pointed out – Baker had the makings of a top of the rotation starter. His high strikeout/low walk numbers were overshadowed by his opponents’ slugging percentage.

Of course, the source of his wayward command stemmed from the chips in his elbow that plague him throughout the season. As Baker told reporters following his start against the Dodgers:

“I had a couple of cortisone injections last year. Those make you feel pretty good for a little while, but those are obviously just temporary fixes, just treating the symptoms instead of the problem.”

With a full recovery from the offseason surgery to remove the bone chips, Baker has since demonstrated over and over again that he can locate his pitches with improved precision.

Now, instead of this…

 

…we see more of this:

The overall results have been fantastic.

One contributing factor to this outstanding performance is that Baker has experienced a significant revival of his fastball. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value warehouse, Baker’s 2010 fastball was “worth” -8.9 runs above average making it one of the least valuable pitches in the American League last year. Much of that was derived from offerings like the one in the first clip. This season it is the sixth-best contributor at 14.7 runs above average.

Scott Baker’s Fastball
	Opponent Avg.	K%	In Play%
2010	.307	17%	35%
2011	.217	26%	29%
League Averages:	.273	14%	44%

(via MyInsideEdge.com)

Baker has shaved off nearly a hundred points off his opponent batting average, increased his ability to get a strike out and limited the amount of fastballs put into play. In fact, among those qualified, Baker’s 29% in play rate is the lowest in the majors. Those are all a product of being able to spot the pitch much better.

Restoration of his breaking pitches has also been key to his resurgence. Similar to the plight of Nick Blackburn who did not throw his slider at all in 2010 due to his elbow pain, Baker continued to spin downgraded versions of his slider and curve. He was able to dismantle the Dodgers by keeping them off-balanced with a plethora of breaking stuff. Deploying low-finishing breaking pitches enhance the high fastballs by changing the hitter’s eye-level.

Armed with a good repertoire of pitches, mechanics that help hide the ball from hitters and now a clean bill of health, Scott Baker has rebounded in a major way. Make no mistake - this is not an aberration - Baker is actually this good.  

Catching heat.

Because of one pitch, questions regarding Joe Mauer’s defensive abilities have surfaced.

Following Friday’s Jose Mijares versus Mauer incident, columnist Jim Souhan blogged on the StarTribune.com stating that:

“I've always been told by Twins people that Mauer is not an exceptional pitch-caller.”

Then, after Liriano’s rough outing on Saturday, Souhan relayed more rumblings from the clubhouse on his blog:

“Liriano mentioned after the game that he didn't think the pitch he threw to Gomez was the right choice. Another shot at Mauer's pitch-calling?”

In terms of Souhan’s “Twins people”, it’s hard to tell if that is in reference to pitchers, coaches or front office members. Maybe it’s just people surrounding him in the press box. Or possibly all of the above. It should be noted that in my conversations with Rob Antony last spring, the team’s assistant GM offered nothing but a glowing endorsement of Mauer’s handling of the pitchers. 

Based on the current comments, it is hard to ignore what appears to be an growing sentiment that the pitching staff is growing frustrated with Mauer’s pitch-calling. Of course, this is not new nor is it the first instance of pitcher’s expressing displeasure in Mauer’s selections. In 2008, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins and Slowey were all cited as regular shake-off offenders. Reportedly, field management was not happy with Kevin Slowey shaking off the highly paid catcher as recently as last year. This year, Liriano has been fingered as a pitcher lacking confidence in his catcher choices.

For Liriano, the results seem to speak for themselves when it comes to his pairing with Mauer on the mound this year:

F. Liriano by Catcher 2011
	PA	BB%	K%	OPS	Runs/G
Butera	115	16.5	11.3	.742	3.20
Rivera	128	7.8	28.9	.497	1.60
Mauer	66	15.5	16.6	.956	4.00

(via Baseball-Reference.com)

Within this small sampling you can see that Liriano has not worked well with Mauer at all. Yes, those numbers are influenced by Liriano’s shaky start at the season’s onset when the bulk of his time with Mauer was but it just makes me wonder if Mauer’s approach when handling Liriano differs radically in comparison with Rivera, who Liriano has been magnificent with.

In fact, it appears that Rivera is the favorite receiver among the Twins pitching staff. At least by the numbers:

Twins Pitching Staff by Catcher 2011
	PA	BB%	K%	OPS	Runs/G
Butera	1348	8.3	13.5	.779	4.27
Rivera	739	7.5	18.5	.637	2.60
Mauer	548	8.2	16.4	.729	4.33

(via Baseball-Reference.com)

Needless to say, actually digging into what differentiates the catchers requires much more extensive studies in pitch f/x for pitch selection. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple so I will not be exploring that aspect of the trio’s game-calling abilities today. Skimming the data from his starts against Texas and San Diego compared to his most recent one in Milwaukee, there does not appear to be any substantial difference in what was being called, just a disparity in where his pitches were being thrown.

Nick Blackburn credited Rivera has helping him rebound this season. According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, Blackburn’s renaissance came in a chat with Rivera before last month’s start against Chicago:

“The White Sox are aggressive and free-swinging at the plate, and Blackburn and Rivera decided before that May 4 start that they would work inside with fastballs. And this, in turn, would open up the outer half of the plate for Blackburn's offspeed pitches. The Minnesota right-hander allowed one run in 6.2 innings that day, results that reinforced something for Blackburn: If he pitched inside, aggressively, he would create more space for himself in another part of the strike zone. What this meant, too, was that Blackburn didn't have to be quite as precise with his command, because his margin for error with the strike zone would be larger.”

So, wait. Did Mauer or Butera not have Blackburn throwing inside prior to that start? Once again, that’s best answered through an extensive pitch f/x study.

Perhaps it extends beyond simply pitch-calling.

Watching Rivera work behind the plate, you can see why he might be able to coax more out of his pitchers. He’s very visual and moves around the zone, giving directions constantly. In his start against the Padres, Rivera pounded the dirt to make sure Liriano knew to get his slider down against the right-hander Ryan Ludwick. He did the same with Blackburn with Alexi Ramirez at the plate. That’s how you avoid any confusion on where you wanted that pitch and make sure you are on the same page as a pitcher.

Mauer isn’t nearly that mobile behind the plate. He doesn’t thrust his leg out to ensure he gets as low in the zone as possible. He doesn’t do the fake-out hop inside then jump to the outer-half of the zone that Rivera does at times. Does Liriano, who has been all over the board as a pitcher this season, need that kind of guidance that Rivera provides when he is behind the plate? Do the others, like Blackburn, respond better to this style of catching?

Because of Justin Morneau’s injury, Mauer may be moved from out behind the plate to first base on occasion, giving Rivera a chance to prove that his ability to handle the pitching staff isn’t just a success due to a small sample size. 

A quick look at the Mijares/Mauer controversy

Mauer has struggled in first week back

When Minnesota’s prodigal son returned to the lineup on June 17, the Twins were in the midst of a four-game winning streak. In his first plate appearance back, Joe Mauer scooted a groundball up the middle scoring Alexi Casilla and giving the Twins a 1-0 lead. Since then, however, he has gone 2-for-17 while appearing overmatched.

Prior to heading back to join the team, Mauer readily admitted that he was not 100% telling reporters that “Timing wise and hitting wise, I'm not where I need to be in midseason form.”

In terms of connectivity, Mauer is doing just fine in that department – showing that he is able to put the bat on the ball at a high clip. The problem is that his contact has mostly produced grounders. In fact, with a minimum of 50 plate appearances, Mauer’s 68.1% ground ball rate is the highest in the American League. That type of infield littering is typically reserved for slap-hitting, speedsters.

Perhaps because of the extended time off from baseball activity or his various ailments, Mauer has not shown the ability to stay in on pitches. Much like Morneau’s early season woes, Mauer too is pulling off of the ball with his front hip, leaving him susceptible to fastballs away and off-speed stuff.

Unlike Morneau, Mauer is able to keep his hands back much better so he's not turning over the ball as much but because he is still pulling out on his swing, he is unable to generate a charge when going to the opposite field. The below images provides somewhat of a perspective on what Mauer is doing different versus his 2009 campaign:

Focusing in on his front hip, you see that in the 2011 version (left) the hip has pulled off the ball. This leaves him hitting more with his hands - pushing and punching the ball on the outer-half of the plate. In his 2009 version, Mauer’s front hip is centered allowing him to create more power and ability to drive the pitch that is thrown away.

Because of this, Mauer has seen a precipitous decline in his ability to drive off-speed and breaking pitches so far in his truncated 2011 season:

Mauer vs. Off-Speed Stuff
	Batting Avg.	Well-Hit Avg.	% Put In Play
2009	.294	.103	51%
2010	.254	.155	51%
2011	.111	.016	59%
League Avg.	.240	.078	41%

(via MyInsideEdge.com)

Opponents appear to be taking advantage of this since his return to the Twins in June, giving him an increased dosage of sliders to upset his already disturbed timing. The Giants executed well against the left-handed catcher, working him down-and-away in his appearances in the Bay Area. With the exception of a line drive double play and a punched double to the left-center gap, Mauer routinely beat the ball into the ground.

With Milwaukee’s advanced scouts likely casing AT&T Park in preparation for the upcoming series, the Brewers pitching staff will likely follow suit and implement San Francisco’s blueprint when facing the Twins’ catcher.  

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The Killer shirts have finally arrived to the DiamondCentric Headquarters this week. Expect shipping soon and be sure to pick one up if you have - part of the proceeds goes towards the Killebrew Foundation.