What to do with the starting pitching surplus

At the beginning of December, reports emerged that the Yankees had come calling to gauge the Twins interest in trading Francisco Liriano. According to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the organization’s response was, to paraphrase, “Ah, no.”

For obvious reasons, Francisco Liriano will be a fixture in the Twins rotation. While some might misguidedly question his ace status, Liriano remains, bar none, the best pitcher on the staff. It’s hard to argue that the top five finisher of all pitchers in the categories of strikeouts per nine innings (9.44, fifth-best), home runs allowed per nine innings (0.42, fourth-lowest) and the fielding-independent pitching metric (2.66, third-best) is somehow not the best on his own team’s rotation. With an infusion of luck and defense in 2011 to accessorize his domination, Liriano could easily be a contender for next year’s Cy Young Award.

Meanwhile, Sherman continued by saying:

“The Twins would, however, consider trading strike-thrower Kevin Slowey, especially if they are able to re-sign free agent Carl Pavano.”

Fast-forward a month later and suddenly the Twins have been able to re-sign Pavano, giving them six starting pitchers and only five rotational spots. Even Bert Blyleven’s California math would be able tell him that there are one too many starting pitchers - either someone has to move to the bullpen or someone will be shopped.

While it is very plausible that the team may choose to reassign one of their starters to the relief staff, it is just as likely that they may look to improve other areas of the roster by trading from their surplus, and the suddenly expendable Slowey could be on the move.

Slowey has built a strong pedigree in the minor leagues – succeeding with precision and guile despite college-level velocity - and has performed adequately in Minnesota. This unparalleled control has been one of the best in the game. Since 2008, Slowey’s 4.62 strikeouts-to-walks ratio has been the fourth-best behind only Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and the retired Mike Mussina. Nevertheless, after taking a Juan Uribe liner off of his wrist in 2008 which sidelined him for a couple weeks, the pain persisted in 2009 and eventually led to surgery. The outcome was the installation of two permanent screws in his throwing wrist.

This past spring, Slowey told reporters in Florida that his wrist had an entirely new sensation and that he wasn’t sure if he would ever feel the same again. By May, Slowey clearly appeared to be a different pitcher as all his pitches lacked the movement he demonstrated in the past. In his first eight starts, Slowey failed to complete six innings in all of his starts except for one, drawing criticism from his manager that he was trying to be too fine and nibbled around the plate instead of attacking the strike zone.

Even though he continued to rack up wins through July, thanks to his offense which eventually scored him 6.24 runs per nine innings in 2010, which masked his overall shoddy performance, Slowey continued to have troubles getting movement on his pitches.

Had the surgery been a simple clean-up of bone chips, I’d likely to chalk the decreased movement up to Slowey attempting to regain his feel for his pitches after the hiatus beginning in 2009. However, with two permanent screws it definitely raises the possibility of influencing the structural integrity of his wrist mechanics, impeding him from gaining the same action he had on his pitches before the surgery.

Perhaps the Twins viewed it as the same way. At July’s trade deadline, Slowey’s name was often cited as a potential candidate to be on the move. According to some reports, the right-hander was being offered to the Mariners as part of a potential Cliff Lee trade.

Obviously, the Cliff Lee trade never materialized, but Seattle’s interest in Slowey is very understandable. As a team with rangy, fly-catching outfielders, combined with a particularly pitcher-friendly ballpark in Safeco, Slowey’s fly ball tendencies would thrive in the Northwest. So it is entirely possible that Seattle could rekindle their interest in the relatively young and inexpensive starter.

Likewise, as Howard Sinker suggested yesterday, the Yankees may also be a potential suitor for Kevin Slowey. Per Sinker’s proposal, the Twins would send Slowey to New York and would receive the talented yet disenfranchised pitcher in Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain, who has a lively arm that hits 95-mph and a very good slider that has kept right-handed opponents off-balance, has had numerous issues with his development and appears to have fallen out of favor with the Yankees. In addition to gaining a solid bullpen arm, the Twins would also save approximately $1 million in the process.

While in theory the Yankees are in desperate need of some rotation help to follow CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes, Slowey doesn’t appear to be a great fit in New York. As a right-hander hurler with high contact and ridiculously high fly ball tendencies that short right field porch would be tested regularly against the AL East’s squadron of hard-hitting left-handed sluggers. Then again, Hughes had one of the highest fly ball tendencies in the AL but like Slowey, he too was also saved by his offense that obliterated opponents and led the league in run support, resulting in the emptiest 18-win season in a long time.

To be sure, the Twins would probably benefit more by holding on to all of their six starting pitcher through the first few months of the season, preserving an insurance policy in the event of an injury. Also, by moving to the ‘pen, the Twins can limit Slowey to see opposing batters just one time through the order, a historical strong suit for him as hitters have shown the propensity to hit him harder in their subsequent match-ups. At the same time, don’t be surprised if the front office flips Slowey in efforts to improve the roster and save a few dollars in the process.

It's Official: Pavano returns to the Twins

I’ve already submitted my assessment on what to expect from Pavano in the coming year, so his recent two-year, $16.5 million signing is no surprise. What is sort of interesting is some of the contractual stipulations.

According to Cot’s Contracts in addition to the $8 million he will make in 2011 and the $8.5 million in 2012, Pavano will receive $100,000 for hitting 190 and 200 innings in a season plus another $150,000 for exploring the 210 and 220 inning territory respectively.

Obviously this sort of performance clause is placed as a small incentivizer to ensure that he does maintain that current output. The Twins are signing him as their innings-eater to alleviate the need to strain the bullpen – a unit that is currently untested outside of recently re-signed Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. This small percentage of his overall payday provides a half million extra if he can work approximately six or more innings per start over the course of 32 starts, something that he has managed to do in the past two seasons.

The other stipulation within the new contract is that the Twins have agreed to not offer him arbitration after the 2012 season. This means that if Pavano, over the duration of the new contract, equals his performance of 2009-2010 and reaches Type A status again, the Twins will not hamper his marketability by attaching the need to forfeit a draft pick. Likewise, this will not put the organization in the unenviable position of having to offer him arbitration which he would likely happily accept at 37 years old. It basically acts as prearranged mutual breakup at the end of the contract.  

In the end, the Twins have landed a very good pitcher, capable of eating innings and providing a stabilizing force in the rotation during a time of tumultuousness uncertainty in the bullpen. 

Thome's production is tied to his health

Back at the end of 2009, the commonly accepted belief was that Jim Thome was done.

During one Sunday Night Baseball broadcast, Joe Morgan took the opportunity to tell the nation that he no longer felt that Thome was capable of playing at an elite level. “See,” remarked Morgan, “he cannot get to the fastball.”

Jim Thome had just lifted a weak fly ball out to mid-left field, inciting Morgan’s analysis of the situation. In reviewing the video, you can see that the big lefty is barely able to get around on the Padres’ Heath Bell’s 95-mph fastball. As Thome trotted up the baseline, he returns to the dugout, gesturing to Dodgers’ manager Joe Torre and their trainer that his foot was giving him problems – again.

During the replay, Morgan continued: “It’s very difficult, you know, for Thome to get around on it. Even on 3-1. He is sitting dead-red on the fastball.”

To be sure, Morgan’s anecdotal observation was also reinforced with some pretty damning evidence (which I’m sure he would never care to read) that agreed with his statement. In addition to being overwhelmed by fastballs, which we will see shortly, Thome also had troubles pulling the ball with any authority:

	Pulled HR%	Pulled Slugging%
2008	41%	.685
2009	17%	.520
2010	36%	.779

(via HitTrackerOnline.com & Fangraphs.com)

After pulling 41% of his home runs in 2008, leading to a .685 slugging percentage on pitches pulled, Thome’s pull power dropped dramatically the following season. In 2009, he launched just 17% of his home runs to right and slugged a career-low .520 when pulling pitches. Of course, this most recent season, Thome thumbed his nose at Morgan and everyone else by demonstrating he could still mash to right field, sending 9 of his 25 home runs in that direction and amassing a hearty .779 slugging percentage.

The second indicator that Thome was running out of gas was the fact that he was unable to catch up to fastballs:

	Lg. Avg	2007	2008	2009	2010
BA on Fastballs	.294	.316	.263	.239	.337
Well-Hit Avg on Fastballs	.096	.130	.091	.099	.132
Contact on Fastballs	45%	39%	38%	35%	41%

(via InsideEdge.com)

Like Morgan said, Thome had suffered a noticeable decline in his contact rate on fastballs. In addition to that, Thome had not done the same type of damage as he was used to inflicting.

In 2007, Thome handled fastballs extremely well. That season, according to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Type Value, he was 29 runs above average on heaters. The following year his production on fastballs started to decline noticeably as he was only 9.4 runs above average. In 2009, as his ability to make contact dropped to just 35%, he was 10.3 runs above average on the fastball. Nevertheless, like his sudden resurgence to pull the ball again, Thome confirmed that he could indeed get around on the hard stuff still. His numbers in this department were some of the best since his ’07 season as he finished 22.9 runs above average on fastballs.

Was age really the culprit behind his 2009 decline? How could he have rebounded so quickly in his late 30s when most players are making arrangements to coach single-A ball?

While age certainly could have been influential on this sharp decline, it now appears more likely that lingering injuries played a more substantial role in Thome’s 2009 drop-off than aging did. That year, Thome struggled with staying healthy. In fact, competing with a historically balky back was a nagging foot injury, identified in his plantar fascia, which cropped up in the spring.

Following a rather slow start to the season by his standards, Thome revealed that his left foot flared up on him, sidelining him for several games before being cleared to play again. Following a cortisone injection, for a good chunk of the season Thome appeared to be his usual self, launching 18 homers in 313 plate appearances from May 1 to August 16 while turning in a .257/.393/.514 batting line in that period.

In mid-August, however, Thome’s left foot once again impaired his abilities to play. The slugger sat out for another four games and returned only to provide a fraction of the jolt he supplied in the middle of the season. At the waiver deadline, Thome was traded to the Dodgers in a cash-saving deal for the Sox. Relegated to pinch hitter duties in the NL, his addition did little for Los Angeles. In his final 58 plate appearances of that season following his second foot injury, Thome hit .241/.276/.352.

As a designated hitter whose sole responsibility is to hit, Thome required that stabilizing force on his back foot. In an isolated instance below, you can see how this pain might influence a swing:

Focus on Thome’s feet - particularly the back foot. It is as if he is putting little to no pressure on his back leg. Typically, at the point of contact, hitters want to have just their toes touching the ground from their rear leg, pivoting and twisting that foot in order to gain power from their trunk and leverage the legs in the swing. In this example, there is very little leverage in the lower-half, meaning all of his power is coming from upstairs.

If his foot was causing him to alter his swing by placing less weight on his back leg, this would certainly affect his mechanics and result in a decrease in pull power as well as a reduction in bat speed. It is a stark contrast to his swing from 2010:

Here we see sound mechanics from his lower-half. His back foot is twisting effortlessly and his he is clearly capable of generating power as he was better able to put weight on his back leg. Because of this reign of health, Thome was able to put up the numbers that he did. Able to pivot and place pressure on his back foot, Thome demonstrated that he could turn on pitches and catch up to the fastballs that had thwarted his attempts in 2009.

What does this mean going forward in 2011?

Once again, age does play a factor. Naturally, injuries and ailments heal much slower and tend to loiter a bit longer on older players. However, unlike most of the AL teams interested in DHs, the Twins were not looking for a full-time player. Thome will likely be utilized in that pinch hitter, part-time DH role that was assigned to him prior to Justin Morneau’s concussion (provided the first baseman is ready to go in the spring). This rationing of his plate appearances should help keep him healthy.

As Joe Christensen relays, Thome felt that this rest helped rejuvenate him:

"A couple years ago, I was a little banged up. Not playing every day, I kind of healed up a little bit from the little injuries that I had the year before. Then, when I got home this winter and my body wasn't beat up, I said, 'Wait a minute, this may work out.'"

A healthy Thome is capable of inciting a charge into a fastball and yanking pitching deep into the right field stands. His .283/.412/.627 batting line last year is evidence enough of that.

Still, much like the end of last year, if the Twins start to get the urge to play him more regularly, he is liable to tweak his back as he did at the end of September. Although it would be statistically advantageous to place him in the lineup at DH and moving Kubel to the outfield against right-handed pitchers, this regular playing time might take a toll on his foot or back, rendering him useless later in the season. Management should practice restraint when using Thome in effort to avoid turning him into a paperweight on the bench. 

Does the White Sox recent bullpen moves merit a response from the Twins?

After having arguably the American League’s most successful bullpen last season, leading the AL in strikeout rate (9.05 K/9), xFIP (3.79) and WAR (6.6), White Sox general manager Kenny Williams has continued to tinker with his relief staff.

Having already parted with the cantankerous closer in Bobby Jenks, who took the opportunity to offer some vapid parting shots at his former employer, choosing instead to replace him with Jesse Crain (which may or may not have been a move intended to keep Crain for destroying the Sox’s offense), the Sox have signed veteran left-hander Will Ohman to a two-year, $4 million contract.

Considering the cavalcade of left-handed hitters in the Minnesota Twins lineup, this should be interpreted as a direct assault on attempting to dethrone the reigning AL Central champions.

Ohman, who has held left-handed hitters to a .205 average in his career, will join the fireballing Matt Thornton and Chris Sale as Chicago’s lefties in the ‘pen, giving manager Ozzie Guillen yet another Southside southpaw.  

With Jake Peavy still an unknown, the Sox have a discussed a contingency plan of moving the hard-throwing Sale into the rotation if Peavy is not ready come April. Although Sale would give the Sox three proficient left-handed starters to complement Mark Buerhle and John Danks, his move from the bullpen would leave the Sox with just one lefty reliever in Thornton. The addition of Ohman assures the team that there will be at least two lefties in the event Sale is transferred to the starting rotation. On the other hand, if Peavy is able to begin the season as a starter, the Sox will be blessed with a surplus of lefties, which is a huge late inning advantage versus the Twins.  

Does this maneuvering by the White Sox require a response from the Twins front office?

Although the Twins have done well as team in terms of batting average against lefties (hitting .268, sixth best in baseball), most of those hits have not exactly packed a punch (.326 wOBA, 14^th in baseball), leading to the natural conclusion that the Twins need a right-handed presence in the dugout to counteract Guillen’s bullpen strategy.

The popular name that continues to be bandied about by Twins fans is free agent Vladimir Guerrero. While he is a brand-name slugger that is coming off a bounce-back season with the Rangers and has slaughtered left-handed pitching  in his career (.412 wOBA against lefties), there are several reasons to be bearish on him.

Although Guerrero finished the season with a respectable .300/.345/.496 batting line, the bulk of the work was done in the season’s first-half. In the first few months of the 2010 baseball season, Guerrero hit .319/.364/.554 with 20 home runs in 354 plate appearances. Meanwhile, in the latter portion of the year, the right-handed free-swinger coasted in to the finish line somewhat, hitting .284/.336/.461 with nine home runs in 289 plate appearances.

The power drop-off coincides with Guerrero’s inability to elevate the ball in the back-half of the season. As you can glean from the chart below, Guerrero’s groundball rate spiked significantly post-July, resulting in fewer home runs and thus a degeneration of his power numbers:

To me, this is a solid indicator of age and nagging ailments impeding him for sustaining a high-level of production throughout the entire season. According to BaseballInjuryTool.com, he’s had no less than five instances where leg-related injuries have sidelined him for a period of time.

Even if Guerrero manages to repeat his 2010 season in which he avoided any lengthy time in the trainer’s room, there are other indications of a drop-off.  In spite of leading the Rangers with six “No Doubt” home runs (those home runs according to HitTrackerOnline.com that cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet and landed at least 50 feet past the fence), lending credence to the notion that he is still very much capable of inciting a charge into the ball, he was also second on the team in “Just Enough” (balls that cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, or that landed less than one fence height past the fence) and led the team in “Lucky” home runs (a home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day). Because his “Just Enough” rate of 31% exceeds the standard 27% in additional to relocating to an environment that has been, so far, unfavorable to home run hitters in comparison to the Ballpark at Arlington, a natural conclusion is that Guerrero’s numbers would experience some deterioration in his home run totals.

What’s more is that while the Twins would require his presence just a few times a week and to occasionally supplant Jason Kubel against left-handed starters, Guerrero is seeking a full-time job. Unless the front office or Ron Gardenhire can figure out how to carve out playing time between Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer so that Guerrero is satisfied, the Twins appear to be unlikely suitors for his services. Rather, a team like the Rays, who have a vacancy at DH, would be able to provide him with his requisite playing time.      

From the Twins’ perspective, in a perfect world, the market for Guerrero would continue to dissipate, leaving Guerrero and his agent accepting a reduce contract with the understanding that he is a role player. After all, he’s mashed left-handed pitching and the Twins could use that. However, Guerrero wants a full-time position and has a desire to be compensated as such

As I said back in December:

“Given that left-handed pitchers represent a smaller universe compared to their right-handed counterparts, Twins needn't sign a right-handed hitter who is interested in 500-plus plate appearances – marquee guys like Paul Konerko, Maggilo Ordonez and Derrek Lee are going to want full-time jobs and also be compensated as such. What the Twins need is a player that can siphon off 250 plate appearances during those other 29% of match-ups against left-handed pitchers -- basically a right-handed version of Jim Thome last year.”

Naturally, it would be nice to sign a formidable player like Vladimir Guerrero or Derrek Lee to a nominal contract, but both want more substantial role that other teams could guarantee. The Twins simply do not have the plate appearances to go around, limiting their ability to entice those types of players to signing with the team.

In the end, the White Sox recent moves likely require some sort of response from the Twins. What seems to be relevant is that the Twins seem to recognize that due to the statistical fact that right-handed pitchers greatly outnumber left-handed ones, there is no need to overpay for a role playing right-handed hitter. Plenty of hitters are on the market, including established hitters like Andruw Jones, Troy Glaus, Marcus Thames and Jorge Cantu to consider alongside Luke Hughes and Jeff Bailey. 

What seems clear, given the current circumstances, is that that option is probably not going to be Vladimir Guerrero.

What Pavano could bring the Twins in 2011

With mainly baseball’s afterthoughts pursuing his services, reports emerged late Thursday night that the Twins were increasing their pursuit of starter Carl Pavano.

Tweeted by Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman, up until this point, the Twins had been extending a one-year contract to the Pavano camp but have recently added a second year in their offer. Unless another club swoops in and sweetens the deal with that mythical third year which Pavano has been requesting, the likelihood he returns to pitch in Minnesota in 2011 appears imminent.

From the Twins perspective, Pavano addresses several of their needs.

For starters, with a questionable assortment of bullpen arms, the starting rotation is going to be pressed to work deeper into games next season. Outside of three other starters in the league, no one averaged as many innings as Pavano did per start in 2010. This was an exhaustive problem last year as Scott Baker (5.8 innings per start) and Kevin Slowey (5.5 innings per start) frequently taxed the bullpen. Pavano, meanwhile, averaged 6.9 innings of work, allowing the ‘pen to take some much needed nights off.

Secondly, there is the fact that he is a quintessential Twins-type of pitcher. Not only does he have a miniscule walk rate, a low 1.6 walks per nine innings of work since 2009, but he rarely engages in any semblance of flirtation with the base-on-ball. Last year just 12% of his total match-ups resulted in a three-ball count bested only by some guy named Cliff Lee. For an organization that places a great deal of emphasis on restricting free passes, Pavano is an ideologue.  

What makes him so stingy in the walks department is his tenacious introduction to each hitter. In his tenure in a Twins uniform, Pavano attacked the strike zone with gumption, getting ahead of hitters with a first-pitch strike 67.8% of the time, the best in baseball since ‘09. What’s more is that of his first two pitches, Pavano has located one or the other for a strike over 90% of the time in the past two seasons, also one of the highest in the game.

Although Pavano’s early count zone dominance does not come without some blowback, not only does this aggressive approach keeps him from walking hitters, it also affords him the luxury of turning to his harder to handle off-speed offerings. Using a change-slider combination the veteran right-hander likes to work on the fringe of the strike zone, attempting to inspire opponents to chase after these less than perfect pitches. In fact, his 34.1% out of zone swing percentage was the highest among starters since 2009:

Highest Out-of-Zone Swing% 2009-2010
Carl Pavano	34.1%
Shaun Marcum	32.9%
Roy Halladay	32.5%
Dan Haren	32.1%
Francisco Liriano	32.1%

(via Fangraphs.com)

Unlike some of the other names on that list, Pavano rarely induces the same amount of missed bats, instead relying on generating weaker contact then putting himself at the whim of the defense behind him.

It is this tactic which makes some analysts question where his output will be in 2011.

In 2010, Pavano posted his lowest career batting average on balls in play (BABIP). As a pitcher that allows a high amount of contact and has an unusually suppressed BABIP not typical of his recent track record, the laws of regression suggest that he will see his BABIP return towards the league-average or his career-norm in the ensuing year. If you adhere to this reasoning, it would imply that Pavano is likely headed to a season filled with more hits than his last.

Then again, because he was a prolific ground ball pitcher last year, Pavano’s BABIP (and ultimately his success) will likely be tied to the performance of his infielders. Even though the Twins have dismantled perhaps one of the league’s best defensive middle infields, the replacements in Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka are projected to be a faster combination than their predecessor, leading one to speculate that they might be able to cut down more ground balls for Pavano than last year.

Similarly, the configuration of the home stadium also provides him some insulation. Although Pavano surrendered more hits at home versus on the road in 2010, he gave up fewer detrimental hits. WhenTarget Field played big in 2010, pitchers could throw to contact could and get away with hitting a sizable portion of the plate middle-away without too much backlash as fly balls would simply die in the power alleys. Specifically for Pavano he allowed far fewer homers at Target Field (0.74 HR/9) than he did on the road (1.16 HR/9).

While most of the aforementioned indicators are favorable, there are also some signs that Pavano may have hit the wall in late 2010 or worse, have the makings of a potential injury.

In early August, Joe Christensen reported that the coaching staff said Pavano had a tired arm. Not long after that, Pavano, who has had a reoccurring sore neck throughout his career, had it flare up but decided to pitch through it. According to LaVelle Neal, this soreness originated in his neck on the right side and extended towards his shoulder area of his throwing arm.

Despite downplaying the significance of the discomfort, the results from August on were brutal. After allowing 131 hits in his first 148.2 innings, he finished the year allowing 96 hits in 72.1 innings including seven home runs post-August. In addition to that, Pavano’s strikeout rate fell off the table:

While it is likely that these results were purely the effects of high mileage on his arm, and an off-season of rest should rejuvenate him, it is still possible that his discomfort in his neck problem leads to something more substantial.

It is easy to go back-and-forth on whether signing Pavano makes sense for the Twins. On one hand, he's 35 years old, ripe for regression and assuming a significant chunk of the payroll. On the other hand, he’s the proverbial “gamer” who works deep into games and racks up innings, alleviating the bullpen’s workload.

When you add it up, for the most part, signing Pavano is a sensible transaction for the Twins. Financially, a two-year contract is reasonable and the $8-to-$10 million per season contract moderate but not outrageous. The biggest downside is whether or not adding Pavano restricts the Twins for making subsequent moves, such as re-signing Jim Thome or adding another quality bench option, or perhaps inspiring them to trade the arbitration-eligible Kevin Slowey to reduce overhead.  

Based on his last two seasons of work, he’s clearly capable of chewing through a large quantity of innings and can work deep into the ballgame. Regression is certainly a probability but given his ability to limit walks, work ahead in the count, get opponents to chase out-of-zone pitches and hit plenty of ground balls, his totals in 2011 should not be too far off from his 2010 season.