Gibson ousts Hicks as Baseball America's Twins top prospect

This morning, Baseball America announced their selection for the Top Ten Twins prospect for the 2011 season:

This shouldn’t be viewed as an affront to Hicks, the previous season’s anointed number one prospect for the Twins. After a rather gruff introduction at low-A Beloit, hitting .251/.350/.382 (732 OPS) in 297 plate appearances, he bounced back in his 20-year-old season at the same level. In 518 plate appearances, Hicks posted a .279/.401/.428 (829 OPS) batting line thanks in part to a bump in his walk rate (13.5% to 17.1%) combined with a significant spike in his BABIP (from .307 to .362) in spite of a slight decline in his line drive rate. Because of his growth in walk rate, it’s not surprising to find that Hicks was deemed the player with the organization’s Best Strike-Zone Discipline in addition to being labeled Best Defensive Outfielder and Best Defensive Arm.

With these kinds of skills, Hicks could be a top three prospect in most organizations across the league. However, with high-A Ft Myers as his next stop in this development process, he is still fairly far away from contributing at the major league-level. Barring any unforeseen acceleration, the earliest we will see him in a Twins uniform is probably 2012.

That may be why Gibson draws an slight advantage over Hicks. Baseball America submits this disclaimer as their basis for their selections:

“Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel.”

John Manuel, editor at Baseball America, frequently has had Major League-ready pitching talent topping his list. In 2008, Manuel surprised many by anointing the 26-year-old Nick Blackburn the team's top prospect. Blackburn, a contact-oriented righty who had finished the ’07 season going 10-6 with an 83/21 K/BB ratio in 160.1 innings split between New Britain, Rochester and the Twins, was hardly universally accepted as a blue-chip talent. In an interview with www.NoMaas.org, Manuel said that he “stuck his neck out” with that selection. When Carlos Silva left via free agency, Blackburn indeed cracked the rotation in the spring, leading the team in starts, innings pitched and was even tapped to start the decisive Game 163 against the White Sox in Chicago. Manuel, rather pleased with his choice’s career thus far, also sponsor’s Blackburn’s Baseball-Reference.com page.

All things considered, Blackburn was the only member of that class of prospect to contribute at the major league-level in '08 while Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing provided some innings in '09. Going back to Baseball America's citation of a player's "long-term worth", Blackburn clearly fulfilled that requisite by leading the Twins in innings pitched for two consecutive seasons and earning a four-year extension. 

Like Blackburn in ’08, Kyle Gibson figures to be a contributor in the near future, possibly by midseason in 2011. 

After being drafted in ’09, the 22-year-old Gibson stormed through the system in his first year of professional ball, rendering hitters at three different levels punchless and finished the season with an 11-6 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 126/39 K/BB ratio in 152 innings pitched. While his strikeout rate declined as he rose in the organization, his penchant for inciting groundballs remained relatively consistent – from 68% in high-A, 54% in AA and 57% in AAA. The right-hander has impressed people with his poise and his polished repertoire including what the folks at Baseball America consider the system’s Best Slider and Best Changeup.

Dropped from the prior year’s top ten rankings are Wilson Ramos (traded to Washington), Danny Valencia (promoted to Minnesota), Angel Morales, David Bromberg and Max Kepler. Meanwhile, added to the list are Liam Hendriks, Alex Wimmers (2010 draft pick), Adrian Salcedo and Oswaldo Arcia. 

OtB Twins Notes

The Chicago Tribune’s Phil Rogers wonders aloud if the Twins might be willing to swing a trade with the Boston Red Sox. It is no secret that the Sox are shopping shortstop Marco Scutaro, and Rogers speculates that it might take just a bullpen arm to land him.

Stepping back for a second, I’m not sure what “bullpen arm” Rogers believes it will take to get Scutaro. Right now, the Twins do not have three of their main arms under contract including Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain. If the Sox were that interested, they’d just sign them. As far as Scutaro goes, the Sox overpaid for Scutaro’s beefed up numbers in 2009 when he hit .282/.379/.409 while scoring 100 runs and playing serviceable defense at short. Signed to a two-year, $10 million deal, Scutaro had a rough first season in Fenway. In addition to a reduction in his offensive-output – at a right-handed friendly home ballpark no less – Scutaro didn’t wow anyone with his defense as fans gave him very poor marks on the Fans Scouting Report. Predictably, dishing out deals to 33-year-olds who produce career-highs is often ill-advised. Trading for them would be an even bigger gaff.

In a conversation with Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson, St Paul Pioneer Press’s Charley Walters notes if the Twins do not bring back free agent Carl Pavano (who has strong interest from the Nationals and the Brewers), Anderson said his rotation “appears” to be Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey.

“Appears” is the operative word here. While moving forward with this group wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world however given the interest in Japan’s Hisashi Iwakuma and possibly Brandon Webb, the Twins do not emit the appearance of a team set with their rotation. The current crop of free agent arms is not highly thought of. If you are not landing Cliff Lee, you are relegated to either overpaying on potential (Jorge De La Rosa) or gambling on reclamation projects (Webb, Chris Young, Jeff Francis). In speaking about his option to finding another starting pitcher to replace Webb, Arizona GM Kevin Towers recently commented: “The starting pitching market is fairly weak this year. To me it's minor league free agents, trades. You're more apt to find that guy via trade vs. getting major league free agents." The Twins may just be following this philosophy as well having seemingly avoided the major league free agent market – targeting Iwakuma while signing the likes of minor league arm Eric Hacker, who the Twins considered the best six-year minor league free agent available.

MLBFanhouse’s Jeff Fletcher tweeted from the GM Winter Meetings that Jim Thome had not given any indication to the Twins’ Bill Smith if he was interested in playing again next year.

Back in the beginning of November, Smith told Reusse & Mackey that he was very interested in bringing Thome back. Of course, Thome’s response at the conclusion of the Twins’ 2010 post-season run was that he was going to spend some time with his family before making a decision. With the 600 home run mark in sight, all but solidifying his Hall of Fame candidacy, Thome’s return is probably assured.

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle says it now appears unlikely that the A’s and Hisashi Iwakuma will come to terms within their 30-day negotiating period as Iwakuma has been requesting “Barry Zito type deal” (7-years, $126 million).

Two weeks ago, it was announced that the Twins had submitted a bid on the 29-year-old Hisashi Iwakuma but were ultimately trumped by the Oakland Athletics who paid roughly $15-16 million for just the negotiating rights. It looks as if that even had the Twins outbid the A’s, they would have little hope of signing him. For a ballclub like Oakland whose payroll was $32.1 million in 2010 and practices fiscal restraint like a religion, there seems to be little chance that Iwakuma lands in Oakland. The good news for the A’s is that they will be reimbursed their posting fee.

The Baltimore Orioles have contacted the Twins in regards to J.J. Hardy reports the Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec.

There is no update as to how far the talks extended, just that Zrebiec noted that the Orioles did not know what the Twins wanted in return. The Twins sentiment on Hardy is anything but confidence inspiring for the 28-year-old shortstop as front office personnel and management have hid their intentions with a thinly-veiled euphemism of “looking to get faster” or “injecting speed”. According to 1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey, Ron Gardenhire said on Reusse & Mackey that “We like Hardy a lot. He's a great guy, great teammate, and we believe when he's healthy he's solid at shortstop. But when you start looking at speed and everything, and other options, that's one of the areas we're going to look at options at and see if we can find more speed -- a little more versatility out there.” How’s that for writing on the wall? Because of the uncertainty of the bullpen, the Sun’s Dan Connolly thinks that the Twins could target David Hernandez. The 25-year-old Hernandez throws 93.6-mph with a supurb curve and eventually could become a team’s closer. He is, however, erratic (42 walks in 79.1 innings in ’10) and hittable (72 hits allowed). If the team is really set on moving on without Hardy, trading him would be a much better option versus non-tendering him by the December 2 deadline.

Amongst their cavalcade of minor league signings last week, Joe Christensen tweeted that the team has re-sign first baseman Justin Huber, who was with the organization in 2009.

While spending most of the season in Rochester, Huber provided a dash of shock and awe, batting .273/.356/.482 with 22 home runs in 506 plate appearances. After a one-game cameo with the Twins, the right-handed hitting former Baseball America Top 100 Prospects of ’03 and ’06 signed with the Hiroshima Carp – where he did not fare well at all. According to NBPTracker.com, Huber’s failed to provide the team the power they anticipated, hitting .220/.340/.378 with 7 home runs in 209 plate appearances. Currently playing for the Melbourne Aces of the Australian Baseball League, Huber hasn’t demonstrated much in his native country – going 2-for-29 (.152) in his first eight games. With the release of Brock Peterson, Huber is likely Peterson’s replacement for the Red Wings but with his history of handling left-handed pitching well, Huber is potentially a call-up candidate if he can put up some solid numbers in the spring. 

Twins bid on Tsuyoshi Nishioka

We may know as soon as Tuesday if the Twins are the recipients of a new middle infielder. Having indicated that they are indeed bidding on Japanese shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Bill Smith and company are now playing the waiting game to see if they are awarded the rights to negotiate with Nippon’s Pacific League batting champion.

Because the Chiba Lotte Marines, Nishioka's Nippon Professional Baseball team, filed for posting on the 17th, we likely won’t have an answer until November 22nd or 23rd if the Twins actually have the highest bid as the Marines have four days to review the submitted bids. What we do know that considering the weak middle infield market this offseason, multiple teams are interested including the Giants, Cardinals, Orioles and Mets. For what it is worth, by Nishioka’s own admission, he has indicated that he would prefer to play on West Coast.

The Star-Tribune’s Joe Christensen pegs the Twins’ chances of landing Nishioka to be fairly low:

“The chances of the Twins actually acquiring Nishioka seem slim, but their interest is telling. Manager Ron Gardenhire wants more speed in the lineup, and the team has identified the middle infield as the most logical place to add it.”

While described as a “speedster”, Nishioka is fast but isn’t exactly a wunderkind on the base paths. While he led Nippon Baseball League in stolen bases in ’05 and ’06 when he was 20 and 21 years old, he’s been pegged routinely in his attempts. According to Paul White’s USA Today article on him, in the past six years Nishioka has averaged 26 stolen bases but also averaged 12 caught stealing (a 68% success rate). His career stolen base percentage resides at 71.6%, which is borderline considering that the success rate should be closer to 75%. His success rate notwithstanding, Nishioka would be a definite upgrade in speed for the lineup.

It is unclear however exactly what the Twins intentions are with Nishioka and how his potential acquisition would affect future team-building. While a shortstop in Japan since 2006, many scouts and analysts feel that Nishioka is better suited for second base – a position he played for his first three seasons.

Because the Twins have a vacancy at second and the possibility of opening one up at short (if the Twins win the bid on Nishioka, they could conceivably decline to offer Hardy a contract or arbitration before the November 23rd December 2nd deadline), targeting Nishioka appears to provide the team with added flexibility this winter. After all, they could straight-up exchange Nishioka for J.J. Hardy at short, put Nishioka at second in the place of Orlando Hudson and keep Hardy leaving Alexi Casilla as a backup option or drop Hardy and slot Nishioka at second and move Casilla to short where reports say he’s more comfortable and natural.

While one of the better defensive shortstops in the league with a second-half surge offensively, some within the organization have seem to have grown dissatisfied with what J.J. Hardy brings to the table. MLB.com’s Kelly Thesier postulates that the incumbent, JJ Hardy, could be non-tendered due to both his injury concerns and his continued upward mobility in the income category. On Wednesday afternoon, the Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan added another level and said on Reusse & Mackey Show that he got the impression that Hardy’s requests for days off drove Ron Gardenhire crazy.

Giving further credence to the notion that the Twins would dump Hardy if they acquired Nishioki is the fact that they would be compensated about the same in 2011. According to MLBFanhouse’s Tom Krasovic, the posting fee (paid to the Chiba Lotta club) for Nishioka will exceed $4 million while his salary will be roughly $2 to $3 million per year. This would mean that the Twins would spend at least $6 million in 2011 for Nishioka’s services, roughly the equivalent cost of keeping Hardy.

  

And although Nishioka posted outstanding numbers in 2010, taking home the Pacific League’s batting title with a .346 average, there is a question about how he might perform after crossing the pond. Purveyor of NPB Tracker, a site that follows Japanese baseball, Patrick Newman notes at Fangraphs.com that:

“[Nishioka] posted a career highs in all three slash categories, at .346/.423/.482 easily eclipsing his previous bests of .300/.366/.463. Nishioka’s batting average was backed by a robust .389 BABIP, so regardless of what league he plays in next year, it will remain to be seen whether his 2010 performance was the result of luck, a genuine step forward, or good health.”

Without being able to examine his batted ball tendencies more thoroughly, I would speculate that given the chance that his numbers regress because of a severe spike in his BABIP and considering the adjustment for Major League pitching, we can expect his numbers to revert towards his career numbers (.293/.364/.426) or lower. Even so, that sort of product would best what an even a favorable estimate of Alexi Casilla would provide (who Bill James pegs to have a .268/.335/.333 season in 2011). As a switch-hitter with speed and on-base abilities, Nishioka would likely nestle in nicely to the number two spot in the batting order, filling the opening left by Orlando Hudson, and giving the Twins a solid one-two combination along with Denard Span.  

The most important take-away from this is that the Twins appear to have a sound philosophy this winter. Rather than overpay for a rental on the free agent market, the front office has made an attempt at solving a long-term problem more creatively. First, instead of re-signing Carl Pavano at his three-year asking price, they tried, unsuccessfully, to land the younger Hisashi Iwakuma. Now with an opening in the middle infield, they are targeting a young player versus trying to sign one of the drecks available on the free agent market. Whether or not the Twins find themselves in position to negotiate with Nishioka early next week, you have to applaud their thinking this offseason. 

Twins will find it difficult to replace Pavano

Unlike the San Francisco Giants who won the World Series on the shoulders and elbows of pitchers they developed themselves, it appears that the Twins are showing signs that they not quite comfortable moving forward with their crop of homegrown starters in 2011.

Last week, Bill Smith admitted to trying to land one of Japan’s top pitching talents. On Sunday, Joe Christensen revealed that the Twins remain in contact with Carl Pavano:

“Twins General Manager Bill Smith spoke to Pavano's agent, Tom O'Connell, last week, expressing the desire to keep the righthander. Pavano would love to return, but he also wants to test the market.”

The Twins realize that allowing Pavano to walk – with or without offering arbitration – means the rotation loses the starter that consumed the most innings for them. In addition to the sheer total of innings, he worked deep into the games, averaging 6.9 innings per start, saving an often overworked bullpen that was forced prematurely into active duty after numerous Kevin Slowey (5.5 innings per start, third-lowest in AL) and Scott Baker starts (5.8 innings per start). Furthermore, with the team’s rash of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2010, it would be difficult to have the utmost confidence that the in-house starters can pick up the slack Pavano would leave behind.

Replacing or upgrading Pavano simply isn’t that easy. To begin, the starting pitching free agent pool is murky at best. After Cliff Lee, the offerings grow questionable. Jorge de la Rosa has some swing-and-miss stuff but is erratic with his control and wants a four year deal. He’s also had just one season of 30 starts. Javier Vazquez is one season removed from his Cy Young-caliber year in Atlanta but battled through injuries in New York and was left off postseason roster when his velocity dropped from 91 to 88 miles an hour. Jon Garland has worked 190 innings each season dating back to 2002. Garland was also smacked around consistently in the American League before finding solace in the National League West. In the end, none of these bachelors have a greater appeal than retaining Pavano.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the team couldn’t explore other alternatives.

Because the free agent starting pitching market is filled with damaged goods, the Twins attempted to acquire one of Japan’s best starters. Targeting the 29-year-old Hisashi Iwakuma made complete sense from the team’s perspective. Like Pavano, Iwakuma was primarily a groundball pitcher who didn’t allow many walks while chewing through a ton of innings. So for the roughly the same cost as meeting Pavano’s three-year, $30 million request, the Twins would get a pitcher with the exact same skill set as Pavano except five years younger. That potential acquisition, of course, turned out to be a moot point as the Oakland A’s trumped whatever the Twins’ offer was to Iwakuma’s ballclub, paying the Rakuten Golden Eagles $17 million to initiate the negotiation with the pitcher.   

While the free agent market may be a crapshoot, the trade market appears just as bleak as well.

Twins fans that dream of landing the younger Zack Greinke to replace Pavano’s innings are in for a rude awakening. According to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, because the Royals are in no hurry to trade their number one starter who is not a free agent until after 2012, a source told Stark that the Royals are informing those clubs that are inquiring on his availability:

“(A) they would need to "win" the deal, (B) they would have to get the kind of four-for-one haul the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira to pull the trigger, (C) they need a bunch of "front-line, winning, quality players" in return, and (D) at least one of those players has to be a pitcher capable of turning into the next Zack Greinke in a couple of years.”

For the Twins, this would spell a complete drain of organization’s top prospects, as they would presumably have to surrender some combination of Kyle Gibson, Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, David Bromberg and Joe Benson. As good as Greinke could be and how perfectly he would fit in to the rotation, he is simply not worth scorching the entire farm system over.

Without a clear replacement and the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their impending free agents just seven days away, this leaves Bill Smith and company with little time to decide whether they want to experience the financial ramifications of retaining him or the potential performance ramifications of not re-signing him.

Move the fences in or let hitters adapt?

The Twins recently announced several adjustments to Target Field for 2011 but apparently they missed an opportunity to appease one of their biggest sluggers. According to Joe Christensen and LaVelle E Neal, Justin Morneau told them that he had lobbied to team officials to move the fences in from right-center to left-center field.

Morneau told the reporters via email:

"Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. [It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road."

Of course, I’m certain if you asked the pitching staff, they would have the exact opposite opinion.

This request echoes that of then-Detroit Tiger Juan Gonzalez’s demand to have the newly opened Comerica Park’s fences brought in. At the time, the Tigers’ home field had a power alley in left field 398 feet from home plate with a distance of 365 down the line. Gonzalez had one of the worst seasons of his career and left for Cleveland the following year as a free agent. The Tigers have since moved in the configurations, shorting the distance in the power alley to 370 and moving the left field corner in to 345.

The Mets, who play at the power-detracting Citi Field, have also toyed with the idea of moving their fences in (by moving home plate closer). Also noted, plenty of other teams over baseball’s history have made alterations to their home fields, including the launching pad of USCellular Park in Chicago, who moved their fences up in 2001.

Morneau wasn’t the only left-handed hitter to notice the need to adjust to hit a home run in Minneapolis. Jason Kubel had moved up on the plate during a home series against Milwaukee in hopes of achieving more power. After hitting three home runs and not much else, Kubel went back to his old style. Right-handed hitting Delmon Young admitted he stopped trying to hit the ball to the opposite field at home. After their series in May, the Yankees Nick Swisher told Pat Borzi this:

“You’ve got to be a grown man to hit it out of there. I’ve got to go down the lines, you know?”

To be sure, Morneau’s assessment has been correct. That is one cavernous area of land out there which is further amplified by the wind effect that has been pushing balls back towards the playing surface. Using spray charts supplied at HitTrackerOnline.com, we can see that just five of the 116 home runs hit at Target Field escaped the clutches of the field in that direction all season:  

There is an element of hitters learning to adapt to the playing surface that you call home. In a recent article in Baseball America by columnist Tracy Ringolsby, Atlanta’s Chipper Jones had made comments regarding the advantage Rockies players have at Coors Field. This incited Ringolsby to rehash a 1984 story of George Brett. Brett’s Royals had been playing the Detroit Tigers in the Championship Series and Brett was asked if he liked Tiger Field’s layout with the short right field porch.

Brett replied:

“I’d probably have had a Darrell Evans type of career, hitting 40, 45 home runs a year with a .260 average. The reason I became the type of hitter I am is because of Royals Stadium. As a hitter, you adjust to your home park to take advantage of what it has to offer. Remember, you play 81 games a year, half your schedule in that park.”

Morneau went on to note that the team had been built for power and offense, which the home park stymied in someways. Of course, gap hitters like Denard Span flourished in the spacious field. After witnessing the park’s home run-thwarting abilities, rather than change the physical surroundings, the team may consider swapping some of the personnel. This fact may validate the need to find speed over power as Bill Smith alluded to earlier in the off-season.

In the end, Morneau’s comments are warranted. Of course, it doesn’t mean his (and other teammates’) demands should or will be met. Nor does it appear that the Twins sound willing to accommodate in the near future.

If that isn’t good enough for the Canadian slugger, I guess there is always the new clock in right field to count the minutes remaining on his current contract.