Running rampant on Joe? Um, no.

An interesting debate has been generated thanks to the abundant amount of bases swindled from the Twins during their recent west coast road trip. In their visit to Safeco Field, the Seattle Mariners ran rampant on the battery, taking 8 bases in as many attempts, essentially stealing all of their runs in the four-game series.

The aftermath chatter focused on Joe Mauer and the possibility that his arm is not quite what it once was. This is quite the swing in the general perception of his stolen base thwarting abilities. According to the Fan’s Scouting Report, Mauer had some of the best attributes of a catcher the two previous seasons. In 2008, he ranked second in release/footwork and accuracy and third in strength. This past season, Mauer was second in release/footwork as well as strength but was third in accuracy. How can it be that someone who had been deemed the second best defensive catcher in baseball suddenly earns a reputation of being easier to steal from than your average baby?

Not surprising, the pitcher on the mound for over half of the stolen bases was Carl Pavano, whose 30 stolen bases allowed in 2009 led the American League. John Bonnes detailed the totals this year noting that of the 17 attempts on Pavano all but two took the base. His 15 stolen bases allowed are currently the third most behind Fausto Carmona of the Indians and Gil Meche of the Royals. As solid of a pitcher that he has been for the Twins, his Achilles’ heel is obviously holding runners. So while Mauer’s caught stealing rate resides at 28% this season, well-below his 37% career mark, this particular member of the pitching staff is doing him little favors.

Part of the reason for this trend is in Pavano's prolonged delivery from the stretch position. With runners on first, Pavano usually opts to use a full leg kick as shown below:

 

In this image against the Texas Rangers, Pavano had Josh Hamilton on first, who is not necessarily a known base stealer. Still, from the point of his rather deliberate leg-lift to the release of the ball, Pavano uses 29 frames. What really gives the runner a potentially solid jump is that once Pavano’s leg reaches the apex of his delivery, instead of shifting his weight forward he brings the leg down before striding towards home.  This is an added split-second for a better jump.

Compare that to Nick Blackburn who basically lifts his foot and steps forward in a quasi-slide step, eliminating time from first movement to pitch release. As such, from leg-lift to the release of the ball, Blackburn uses 25 frames:

Likewise, Scott Baker also implements a shortened delivery with runners on first. Similar to Blackburn, Baker simply strides forward once he lifts his front leg. From start to finish, Baker takes 26 frames to deliver the ball towards home.

Another factor that makes Pavano such an easy target is that his pitch selection with a runner on first is very fastball-deficient compared to the likes of Blackburn and Baker. Because of both a decrease in velocity and the abundance of tougher pitches to catch-and-throw (sliders, splitters), Pavano makes an ideal target to run on:

2008 w/ runner on 1st:	Fastball%	Non-Fastball%	Avg. Velocity
Pavano	58.3	41.7	86.2
Blackburn	75.0	25.0	87.4
Baker	71.8	28.2	87.5

(via Inside Edge)

Even though Pavano can turn a walk into a double, he’s still demonstrated that he has had better results with his methods versus Blackburn and Baker’s truncated deliveries. With a runner on first with a stolen base opportunity last year, Pavano’s OPS against was .830 while Blackburn was at .930 and Baker at .937.  For Pavano, the ends somewhat justify his means.

So, while we’re quick to blame the catcher for the stolen bases, a vast majority of the burden resides on the other side of the plate. In the end, the decrease in the percentage of runners caught by Joe Mauer is greatly influenced by Pavano’s indifference towards would-be stealers and his presence in the rotation. 

Another arm to the stockpile

With the 21^st overall pick on Monday night, the Minnesota Twins selected right-handed pitcher, Alex Wimmers, from Ohio State University to add to their already extensive arsenal of strike-throwers throughout the minor league system.

Going into the 2010 season, a National League area scout told Baseball America that:

"He's generally an average fastball guy. He'll touch 92. If he touched 93, it wouldn't surprise me, but he'll pitch average with some life on the fastball and really commands his fastball. For me, the separator for him is a plus curveball and plus changeup, right now, present—and not just one out of every five. And he can throw all three of them for strikes. He's got the potential to have three major league out pitches. He can get you out with the fastball, it's good enough with the sink on it and he can get righthanders out with his curveball and lefthanders out with his changeup."

Although he has a plus-curve that can generate plenty of missed bats, the Twins seem enamored by his change-up. According to Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com, VP of Player Personal Mike Radcliff said that:

"It's more the action, the strike-ability with it, his confidence in it, and in the end the usability of it that make the pitch effective. This guy can already use the pitch in his mix. In fact, he closes hitters out with it now, presently. We think it could very well be a top-of-the-scale change.”

With three plus-pitches and a two-time Big 10 pitcher of the year trophy in his collection, how did Wimmers fall past 20 other clubs? Projected to potentially be a higher pick during the winter, like Kyle Gibson a year prior, Wimmers’s stock fell some as the draft approached following a non-arm related injury (hamstring), not so much because of risk involved but as MLB.com’s Jonathon Mayo speculated, that he missed the opportunity to showcase his stuff on at least three occasions in front of scouts. Following the Twins selection, Baseball America’s John Manuel seconded the notion that there is no cause for injury concern related to the hamstring.

Outside of his injury, in the past Wimmers had demonstrated that he can be a tedious nibbler, walking 55 batters in 104.2 innings in ’09, which was the second-highest in the Big Ten that year. This past season, the junior hurler made solid strides in the command department, shaving his walk rate down from the gaudy 4.7 to a more manageable 2.8 as he allowed just 23 free passes in his 73 innings of work.

As a 20-year-old with Team USA in 2009, Wimmers seemed to have a good mechanical foundation (good balance point, arm break and hip rotation) but appeared to be slightly rushed in his delivery. In this particular clip, the timing of his lower-half and his upper-half seem a split-second off while his landing point is a bit unbalanced:

(video courtesy of MLBAM)

 

Comparing that to his April 9^th outing of this year, we see a more fluid Wimmers. His landing point is much more controlled but he still manages to maintain that excellent leverage off of his front leg while exercising a great hip rotation with his backside during his release:

(video courtesy of ProspectJunkie.com)

 

The early returns suggest that the Twins have landed themselves a pitcher that is equipped to become a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Naturally, the coaching staff will have some adjustments to make to ensure that Wimmers’s command remains intact and consistent, but it would appear that the Twins have the blueprints to long-term success stashed away in the draft war room. While they may not have the savvy numbers mindset of the Tampa Bay Rays or Seattle Mariners, the Twins are scout savvy and remain competitive by time after time stocking their queue with pitchers like Wimmers who can throw strikes and have the potential to rise quickly through the organization. 

Twins need to set tables in Oakland

Thursday night’s loss to the Seattle Mariners dropped the Twins to a 13-14 record away from Target Field, lending credence to the notion that the good bats may have failed to accompany the team on their flight from the Lindbergh terminal. 

Without a doubt, the Twins have run headlong into some superior pitching. The Mariners have had the luxury of trotting out two of the dirtiest pitchers in baseball, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, but also have received fine performances from Doug Fister and Jason Vargas. If tough pitching isn’t enough to slow a lineup, Safeco Field is a notoriously emasculating ballpark. As such, Minnesota will vacate the Northwest having scored just one run in each of the past three games.

One of the problems has been the lack of production from the top of the order. After taking strike three in his final at-bat to finish the series inSeattle 1-for-15, Denard Span’s average away from Target Field slunk to .186. Likewise, JJ Hardy and Matt Tolbert, Orlando Hudson’s two-hitter replacements, also went 1-for-15 with a walk in the injured second baseman’s absence. A combined 2-for-30 with two walks from the top gives the meat of the order little to work with. 

Certainly, with Hudson out due to a wrist injury, it greatly diminishes the table-setting capabilities (his 39 runs scored leads to the team) but Span has been almost nonexistent all season when playing on the road. This has been detrimental to the scoring process. As one of the league’s premier lead-off hitters, Span has reached base to lead off an inning 40 times, the most in baseball. According to BillJamesOnline.net, Span and the Twins score 1.15 runs per inning when he reaches base. Conversely, when he fails to reach the Twins score just .49 runs per inning. With a .460 home on-base percentage Span is doing most of this damage at Target Field. When traveling however, Span has exhibited a lowly .262 on-base percentage leading to fewer opportunities to drive him in. 

It is not as if Span has a skill set that is more conducive to his home environment, like Vladimir Guerrero’s hefty advantage in the heated bandbox in Arlington or the opportunistic right field wall at Yankee Stadium which inflated Johnny Damon’s overall totals a year ago. After all, Target Field has been an offense inhibitor as well. Basically, he has been coaxing fewer walks (12% BB% at home versus 9% on the road) while not making as solid of contact (22% line drive rate at home versus 14% line drive rate on the road) so it is easy to see where the drop in on-base percentage originates. In the end, Span’s road woes seem to stem from either a bout of small sample size bad luck (identified by a below average BABIP of .206), the psychological influence of traveling or perhaps a little of column A and a little of column B. 

The Twins high-octane offense has been driven by the combination of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau but that vehicle has been fueled by the ability of Span and Hudson to reach base regularly. Only this seemingly potent output is quelled on the road as the average of runs scored per game drops nearly a full run outside of the 612 area code (5.2 to 4.2). With a three-game series in Oakland starting tonight, the Twins need some signs of life from the top of the order, starting with Denard Span, in hopes of finishing the West Coast road trip with a winning record. 

Batting Hardy second.

After attempting to keep Denard Span from having any children on Sunday night, Orlando Hudson has been MIA from the Twins lineup as his non-throwing wrist heals. On Tuesday, Hudson told the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen that his wrist was feeling better, but said it would be “alright in a few days”, which means we could conceivably be graced with Hudson’s presence once again before this shortened work week ends.

Meanwhile, without his two-hitting mainstay, manager Ron Gardenhire has opted to go with shortstop JJ Hardy as the interim hitter in that spot. Unlike Hudson who has been adept at avoiding outs at this point, reaching safely in 37.7 percent of his plate appearances, Hardy has been one of the larger out-producers in the Twins’ stable. In fact, among those with at least 130 plate appearances thus far in the season, Hardy’s .283 on-base percentage is the 10th worst.

Needless to say, this is not the ideal conduit from Denard Span to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, even if it is just a temporary solution. Outs, regardless of their productivity, are precious. Instead of simply shifting his order up one spot, thereby relocating Mauer and his lofty .392 on-base percentage into the two-slot while pushing Morneau up to the third spot where he can be guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning, which would be plausibly more efficient, the manager has injected his lineup with a heaping ton of vitamin Out.

Of course it is the manager’s preference to avoid the lefty-lefty-lefty combination in his batting order, which is where the right-handed stick in Hardy comes in. While Hardy’s bat plays second fiddle to his glove work, he has been an above-average hitting shortstop in his career and also comes with plenty of experience batting behind the leadoff hitter in Milwaukee. (Of course, Milwaukee is the same organization that continues to employ Carlos Gomez as their two-hitter in spite of a sub-.300 on-base percentage....so, yeah.) What likely makes him an appealing candidate to Gardenhire is that Hardy’s contact rate has been greatly improved since his mechanics have been altered:

 

Hardy’s contact:	Contact%	K%
2010	87.9	14.7
2009	80.7	20.5
2008	83.3	17.2

 

Bat control has long been one of the manager's key traits of a two-hitter.What may have also played a role in Gardenhire’s decision to use Hardy as the two-hitter is how similar the two middle infielders have handled the bat this year. Taking a look at their plate discipline, you can see that both have below average chase rates and above average contact rates:

 

Hardy v Hudson in 2010:	JJ	Orlando
O-Swing%	23.4	21.3
Z-Swing%	57.3	61.6
O-Contact%	71.7	75.9
Z-Contact%	94.0	92.0
Contact%	87.6	87.8

 

Naturally, Hudson’s overall totals have been much better thanks to batted ball numbers. His 24 percent line drive rate has led to a .339 BABIP while Hardy’s propensity for hitting grounders has driven down his totals thanks to a .143 BABIP on those wormburners. Likewise, Hudson has drawn walks in 9 percent of his plate appearances while Hardy has done so in just 6 percent, resulting in a greater deviation in their on-base percentages.

 

To be sure, Hudson should return to lineup in a matter of a few days and all offensive order should be restored and the discussion over the two-hitter strategy will be moot. The takeaway from this is that Hardy hasn’t been all that different from Hudson when you break it down to the brass tax. Both are marginal when it comes to drawing walks and Hudson has accelerated thanks to a very good line drive rate. If Hardy continues to exercise the same plate discipline has he has in the first two months of the season, we could witness solid production as the season continues along, regardless of where he hits in the order.

What is behind Nick Blackburn's improvement?

When April concluded, Nick Blackburn was struggling. Despite escaping the month with a respectable 1-1 record, the right-hander was splattered for a .653 slugging percentage thanks to 16 extra base hits including six home runs. In addition to the hard-hit balls, Blackburn was not the same precision-guided pitcher, often falling behind hitters and eventually walking them with a higher frequency then we have come to expect (eight walks in 23.2 innings). Surely this was not the same Nick Blackburn from a year ago but rather a doppelganger equipped with the same luxurious beard.

As the month concluded, Blackburn revealed that he was experiencing elbow discomfort, needed to tinker with his mechanics and then was sidelined for a family emergency for 10 days. When he returned, the tendinitis pain was gone and his mechanical kinks were ironed out. After his first start in the month, manager Ron Gardenhire told Sid Hartman that:

"We had the little issue where his mechanics were a little out of whack, and you know what, now he's fine. He's actually healthy and his mechanics are good again. We got his arm, got that little situation out of there, and he's throwing the ball really good. It's sinking again."

Whether it is the mechanical adjustment or just a healthy elbow, Blackburn has been a far better pitcher as of late. He is 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his five May starts, giving up just nine extra base hits and only five walks in 37.1 innings of work, making a resounding pitch for AL Pitcher of the Month.

Part of the reason behind this improvement appears to be his ability to avoid locating pitches in the mid-section of the strike zone:

As you can deduce from the graph above (which is a shot of his average pitch locations) of last night’s game, Blackburn worked the Yankee lineup consistently at or just off of the corners of the strike zone. Combined with changing speeds regularly, this kept a strong lineup off-balanced for the duration of the game.

Compare that graph to the following graph depicting Blackburn’s locations against the Chicago White Sox on April 11^th:

Blackburn’s offerings were clipping far too much of the plate, entering some Danger Zone air space. Predictably, the White Sox launched three home runs off of him in that game.

The tweaks and clean bill of health have allowed Blackburn to move pitches down in the zone and away from the middle of the plate, resulting in fewer hard-hit line drives and less long fly balls:

	Line Drive Pct	HR/FB%
April	22%	21.4%
May	13%	4.2%

 (via Fangraphs.com)

Because he is consistently near the strike zone, Blackburn will undoubtedly give up numerous hits. After all, his 94% contact rate as well as his 42% in-play rate is currently the highest in baseball. The trick for the Twins righty is to avoid the heavier contact that goes for extra bases. This means keeping his pitches on the edge of the zone as he did against the Yankees. If he can continue to do so, Blackburn should be able to provide the Twins with quality starts throughout the rest of the season.