Another arm to the stockpile

With the 21^st overall pick on Monday night, the Minnesota Twins selected right-handed pitcher, Alex Wimmers, from Ohio State University to add to their already extensive arsenal of strike-throwers throughout the minor league system.

Going into the 2010 season, a National League area scout told Baseball America that:

"He's generally an average fastball guy. He'll touch 92. If he touched 93, it wouldn't surprise me, but he'll pitch average with some life on the fastball and really commands his fastball. For me, the separator for him is a plus curveball and plus changeup, right now, present—and not just one out of every five. And he can throw all three of them for strikes. He's got the potential to have three major league out pitches. He can get you out with the fastball, it's good enough with the sink on it and he can get righthanders out with his curveball and lefthanders out with his changeup."

Although he has a plus-curve that can generate plenty of missed bats, the Twins seem enamored by his change-up. According to Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com, VP of Player Personal Mike Radcliff said that:

"It's more the action, the strike-ability with it, his confidence in it, and in the end the usability of it that make the pitch effective. This guy can already use the pitch in his mix. In fact, he closes hitters out with it now, presently. We think it could very well be a top-of-the-scale change.”

With three plus-pitches and a two-time Big 10 pitcher of the year trophy in his collection, how did Wimmers fall past 20 other clubs? Projected to potentially be a higher pick during the winter, like Kyle Gibson a year prior, Wimmers’s stock fell some as the draft approached following a non-arm related injury (hamstring), not so much because of risk involved but as MLB.com’s Jonathon Mayo speculated, that he missed the opportunity to showcase his stuff on at least three occasions in front of scouts. Following the Twins selection, Baseball America’s John Manuel seconded the notion that there is no cause for injury concern related to the hamstring.

Outside of his injury, in the past Wimmers had demonstrated that he can be a tedious nibbler, walking 55 batters in 104.2 innings in ’09, which was the second-highest in the Big Ten that year. This past season, the junior hurler made solid strides in the command department, shaving his walk rate down from the gaudy 4.7 to a more manageable 2.8 as he allowed just 23 free passes in his 73 innings of work.

As a 20-year-old with Team USA in 2009, Wimmers seemed to have a good mechanical foundation (good balance point, arm break and hip rotation) but appeared to be slightly rushed in his delivery. In this particular clip, the timing of his lower-half and his upper-half seem a split-second off while his landing point is a bit unbalanced:

(video courtesy of MLBAM)

 

Comparing that to his April 9^th outing of this year, we see a more fluid Wimmers. His landing point is much more controlled but he still manages to maintain that excellent leverage off of his front leg while exercising a great hip rotation with his backside during his release:

(video courtesy of ProspectJunkie.com)

 

The early returns suggest that the Twins have landed themselves a pitcher that is equipped to become a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Naturally, the coaching staff will have some adjustments to make to ensure that Wimmers’s command remains intact and consistent, but it would appear that the Twins have the blueprints to long-term success stashed away in the draft war room. While they may not have the savvy numbers mindset of the Tampa Bay Rays or Seattle Mariners, the Twins are scout savvy and remain competitive by time after time stocking their queue with pitchers like Wimmers who can throw strikes and have the potential to rise quickly through the organization. 

Twins need to set tables in Oakland

Thursday night’s loss to the Seattle Mariners dropped the Twins to a 13-14 record away from Target Field, lending credence to the notion that the good bats may have failed to accompany the team on their flight from the Lindbergh terminal. 

Without a doubt, the Twins have run headlong into some superior pitching. The Mariners have had the luxury of trotting out two of the dirtiest pitchers in baseball, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, but also have received fine performances from Doug Fister and Jason Vargas. If tough pitching isn’t enough to slow a lineup, Safeco Field is a notoriously emasculating ballpark. As such, Minnesota will vacate the Northwest having scored just one run in each of the past three games.

One of the problems has been the lack of production from the top of the order. After taking strike three in his final at-bat to finish the series inSeattle 1-for-15, Denard Span’s average away from Target Field slunk to .186. Likewise, JJ Hardy and Matt Tolbert, Orlando Hudson’s two-hitter replacements, also went 1-for-15 with a walk in the injured second baseman’s absence. A combined 2-for-30 with two walks from the top gives the meat of the order little to work with. 

Certainly, with Hudson out due to a wrist injury, it greatly diminishes the table-setting capabilities (his 39 runs scored leads to the team) but Span has been almost nonexistent all season when playing on the road. This has been detrimental to the scoring process. As one of the league’s premier lead-off hitters, Span has reached base to lead off an inning 40 times, the most in baseball. According to BillJamesOnline.net, Span and the Twins score 1.15 runs per inning when he reaches base. Conversely, when he fails to reach the Twins score just .49 runs per inning. With a .460 home on-base percentage Span is doing most of this damage at Target Field. When traveling however, Span has exhibited a lowly .262 on-base percentage leading to fewer opportunities to drive him in. 

It is not as if Span has a skill set that is more conducive to his home environment, like Vladimir Guerrero’s hefty advantage in the heated bandbox in Arlington or the opportunistic right field wall at Yankee Stadium which inflated Johnny Damon’s overall totals a year ago. After all, Target Field has been an offense inhibitor as well. Basically, he has been coaxing fewer walks (12% BB% at home versus 9% on the road) while not making as solid of contact (22% line drive rate at home versus 14% line drive rate on the road) so it is easy to see where the drop in on-base percentage originates. In the end, Span’s road woes seem to stem from either a bout of small sample size bad luck (identified by a below average BABIP of .206), the psychological influence of traveling or perhaps a little of column A and a little of column B. 

The Twins high-octane offense has been driven by the combination of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau but that vehicle has been fueled by the ability of Span and Hudson to reach base regularly. Only this seemingly potent output is quelled on the road as the average of runs scored per game drops nearly a full run outside of the 612 area code (5.2 to 4.2). With a three-game series in Oakland starting tonight, the Twins need some signs of life from the top of the order, starting with Denard Span, in hopes of finishing the West Coast road trip with a winning record. 

Batting Hardy second.

After attempting to keep Denard Span from having any children on Sunday night, Orlando Hudson has been MIA from the Twins lineup as his non-throwing wrist heals. On Tuesday, Hudson told the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen that his wrist was feeling better, but said it would be “alright in a few days”, which means we could conceivably be graced with Hudson’s presence once again before this shortened work week ends.

Meanwhile, without his two-hitting mainstay, manager Ron Gardenhire has opted to go with shortstop JJ Hardy as the interim hitter in that spot. Unlike Hudson who has been adept at avoiding outs at this point, reaching safely in 37.7 percent of his plate appearances, Hardy has been one of the larger out-producers in the Twins’ stable. In fact, among those with at least 130 plate appearances thus far in the season, Hardy’s .283 on-base percentage is the 10th worst.

Needless to say, this is not the ideal conduit from Denard Span to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, even if it is just a temporary solution. Outs, regardless of their productivity, are precious. Instead of simply shifting his order up one spot, thereby relocating Mauer and his lofty .392 on-base percentage into the two-slot while pushing Morneau up to the third spot where he can be guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning, which would be plausibly more efficient, the manager has injected his lineup with a heaping ton of vitamin Out.

Of course it is the manager’s preference to avoid the lefty-lefty-lefty combination in his batting order, which is where the right-handed stick in Hardy comes in. While Hardy’s bat plays second fiddle to his glove work, he has been an above-average hitting shortstop in his career and also comes with plenty of experience batting behind the leadoff hitter in Milwaukee. (Of course, Milwaukee is the same organization that continues to employ Carlos Gomez as their two-hitter in spite of a sub-.300 on-base percentage....so, yeah.) What likely makes him an appealing candidate to Gardenhire is that Hardy’s contact rate has been greatly improved since his mechanics have been altered:

 

Hardy’s contact:	Contact%	K%
2010	87.9	14.7
2009	80.7	20.5
2008	83.3	17.2

 

Bat control has long been one of the manager's key traits of a two-hitter.What may have also played a role in Gardenhire’s decision to use Hardy as the two-hitter is how similar the two middle infielders have handled the bat this year. Taking a look at their plate discipline, you can see that both have below average chase rates and above average contact rates:

 

Hardy v Hudson in 2010:	JJ	Orlando
O-Swing%	23.4	21.3
Z-Swing%	57.3	61.6
O-Contact%	71.7	75.9
Z-Contact%	94.0	92.0
Contact%	87.6	87.8

 

Naturally, Hudson’s overall totals have been much better thanks to batted ball numbers. His 24 percent line drive rate has led to a .339 BABIP while Hardy’s propensity for hitting grounders has driven down his totals thanks to a .143 BABIP on those wormburners. Likewise, Hudson has drawn walks in 9 percent of his plate appearances while Hardy has done so in just 6 percent, resulting in a greater deviation in their on-base percentages.

 

To be sure, Hudson should return to lineup in a matter of a few days and all offensive order should be restored and the discussion over the two-hitter strategy will be moot. The takeaway from this is that Hardy hasn’t been all that different from Hudson when you break it down to the brass tax. Both are marginal when it comes to drawing walks and Hudson has accelerated thanks to a very good line drive rate. If Hardy continues to exercise the same plate discipline has he has in the first two months of the season, we could witness solid production as the season continues along, regardless of where he hits in the order.

What is behind Nick Blackburn's improvement?

When April concluded, Nick Blackburn was struggling. Despite escaping the month with a respectable 1-1 record, the right-hander was splattered for a .653 slugging percentage thanks to 16 extra base hits including six home runs. In addition to the hard-hit balls, Blackburn was not the same precision-guided pitcher, often falling behind hitters and eventually walking them with a higher frequency then we have come to expect (eight walks in 23.2 innings). Surely this was not the same Nick Blackburn from a year ago but rather a doppelganger equipped with the same luxurious beard.

As the month concluded, Blackburn revealed that he was experiencing elbow discomfort, needed to tinker with his mechanics and then was sidelined for a family emergency for 10 days. When he returned, the tendinitis pain was gone and his mechanical kinks were ironed out. After his first start in the month, manager Ron Gardenhire told Sid Hartman that:

"We had the little issue where his mechanics were a little out of whack, and you know what, now he's fine. He's actually healthy and his mechanics are good again. We got his arm, got that little situation out of there, and he's throwing the ball really good. It's sinking again."

Whether it is the mechanical adjustment or just a healthy elbow, Blackburn has been a far better pitcher as of late. He is 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his five May starts, giving up just nine extra base hits and only five walks in 37.1 innings of work, making a resounding pitch for AL Pitcher of the Month.

Part of the reason behind this improvement appears to be his ability to avoid locating pitches in the mid-section of the strike zone:

As you can deduce from the graph above (which is a shot of his average pitch locations) of last night’s game, Blackburn worked the Yankee lineup consistently at or just off of the corners of the strike zone. Combined with changing speeds regularly, this kept a strong lineup off-balanced for the duration of the game.

Compare that graph to the following graph depicting Blackburn’s locations against the Chicago White Sox on April 11^th:

Blackburn’s offerings were clipping far too much of the plate, entering some Danger Zone air space. Predictably, the White Sox launched three home runs off of him in that game.

The tweaks and clean bill of health have allowed Blackburn to move pitches down in the zone and away from the middle of the plate, resulting in fewer hard-hit line drives and less long fly balls:

	Line Drive Pct	HR/FB%
April	22%	21.4%
May	13%	4.2%

 (via Fangraphs.com)

Because he is consistently near the strike zone, Blackburn will undoubtedly give up numerous hits. After all, his 94% contact rate as well as his 42% in-play rate is currently the highest in baseball. The trick for the Twins righty is to avoid the heavier contact that goes for extra bases. This means keeping his pitches on the edge of the zone as he did against the Yankees. If he can continue to do so, Blackburn should be able to provide the Twins with quality starts throughout the rest of the season.

Selectivity and connectivity propelling Morneau's monster start

Without question, Justin Morneau is off to the best start of his career. He has been hitting pitchers so hard that he is probably violating some aspect of the Geneva Convention.

 

What has made Morneau so good in 2010? Almost every ball that the Twins first baseman connects with is on a violent trajectory but at the same time he is making opposing pitchers labor in almost every plate appearance. Morneau told Sid Hartman that he was making a concerted effort to not press too hard in the batter’s box:  

 

"Right now I'm trying to be patient, take what they give me and not make something out of an at-bat that isn't there. With [Michael] Cuddyer, [Jim]Thome, [Delmon] Young and all of those guys in the lineup hitting behind me, I feel if I get on base they can hit a home run just as easily as me swinging at a bad pitch and blooping something in."

 

The numbers certainly confirm Morneau’s testament. Compared to past seasons, he’s shown schoolmarm-ish discipline. Now an established veteran of nearly a decade, Morneau has been selective on pitches both outside and inside the strike zone while keeping his bat on his shoulder more:

 

Morneau’s Plate Discipline:	OOZ swing%	IZ swing%	Overall swing%
2010	27.0	62.5	41.9
2009	29.4	72.5	48.9
2008	30.3	66.6	47.6

 

After chasing almost 30 percent of pitches out of the zone in 2008 and 2009, he’s trimmed the fat down to below the league’s average through almost two months of the season. Of course, pitchers have enabled this newfound discipline by pirouetting around the strike zone, attempting to avoid his heavy lumber by bending and changing speeds. In the past, a younger Morneau may have expanded the zone for the pitcher by reaching for an inferior pitch. This year’s model is swinging on his own terms which have translated to more favorable counts and a higher walk rate.

 

Likewise, the decision to throw fewer fastballs and even fewer strikes in general is presumably an attempt to tangle with the hitters down the order from Morneau rather than challenge the league’s best hitter. While the logic is sound in theory, in practice however this has been extremely advantageous for the Twins. First, this off-speed recourse has a rather nasty side-effect: Morneau is hitting it at a very good .392 clip with six of his 11 home runs coming off of non-fastball offerings. Secondly, the decision to pitch around Morneau has ultimately led to more runs. Coming into Sunday’s game, Morneau has been issued 33 free passes. On five of those occasions, he eventually scored.   

 

In addition to abstaining from the wayward pitches and embracing the higher dosage of off-speed stuff, Morneau has been increasingly particular about his in-zone pitches as well, taking more pitches for strikes. With this added quality-control, he has been able to hone in on his proverbial “pitch”. This has translated into more squarely hit balls.

 

Morneau’s batted balls:	Line Drive%	Ground Ball%	Fly Ball%
2010	23.9	25.6	50.4
Career	18.7	40.6	40.7

 

After beating the ball into the ground at a career 40 percent rate, he’s elevating it more this year – shooting more fly balls and line drives around the park instead of towards the turf. While one would like to see the grounders exchanged for line drives, as fly balls are typically the most frequent of the three to be converted into an out, Morneau has been exercising a fly ball BABIP nearly a 100 points higher than the league and his career average. Also, the depressed ground ball rate has also kept him from hitting into any double-plays in ’10 despite having baseball’s second-highest at-bats in double-play situations (48) behind teammate Michael Cuddyer (50).

 

Aside from the batted ball levels which may not be sustainable throughout the season’s duration and eventually regress back towards his career norms, clearly Morneau has implemented a sound approach at the plate and is capitalizing on it whenever he pulls the trigger. If the organization can refrain from wearing him out at the end of the year and keep him from his second-half swoon, Morneau could be a runaway for AL MVP.