Slowey slip, slidin' away?

Following yet another abridged start by Kevin Slowey on Monday in Toronto, Ron Gardenhire implored his marksman to throw to contact more. “That’s how he will get away from those 100-pitch, five inning performances,” Gardenhire said Monday night, “by making guys swing the bat.” In truth, opponents have been swinging just fine against the Twins righty. Slowey’s opposition is swinging at 48.8 percent of his pitches, well-above the 44.7 percent league-average.

 

Gardenhire continued by saying “[He needs to] pitch to contact better because he’s got great stuff and he can move the ball in and out. [He] just has to not try and be so fine and get them to hit the ball.” Likewise, contact does not see to be a problem for opposing batters either. According to Fangraphs.com, since ’08, Slowey’s swinging strike percentage has dropped from 8.6 to 7.7 to just 5.8 this year. His contact rate has jumped from 82.3 percent to 83.5 percent in ‘09 to his current 87.7 percent.

 

The Twins manager is correct in assuming Slowey has been too fine at his approach at the plate. As he has nibbled outside the zone more frequently this season, the right-hander has found himself behind hitters more often. In ’08 and ’09, opponents were in favorable counts 26 and 25 percent of the total plate appearances. This season, that percentage has increased to 32 percent. Seeing more favorable counts has led to more hittable pitches thus the higher contact rate.

 

But there’s more. Slowey’s not getting nearly the same movement on his pitches this year as he had up to this point in his career. Here is a view from above on Slowey’s pitch mix in 2010:

 

Compare that to what his assortment looked like in 2009:

 

 

Or to 2008:

 

 

In comparison to the two prior years, it is obvious that Slowey’s pitches in 2010 are flat and not experiencing the same type of movement. Furthermore, there is a glaring difference between several pitches in his repertoire, the most notable being his slider. In the previous two seasons, Slowey’s slider cut through the space in front of the plate from right-to-left and on average wound up outside of the strike zone.

 

Without the movement of the slider, Slowey has taken on heavy fire from right-handed opponents:

 

Vs RHB	LD%	K%	OPS
2010	27.5	12.2	.940
2009	18.6	18.4	.821
2008	16.4	16.5	.641

 

Aside from his fastball, Slowey turns to his slider nearly 20 percent of the time when dealing to righties. Whereas in past seasons when he was able to avoid hard contact and occasionally rack up a strikeout, same-sided opponents have feasted on his assortment.

 

Perhaps this is lingering effects of his off-season wrist injury. After all, in February Slowey remarked that his throwing wrist had a new sensation and wasn’t certain if it would ever feel the same again. The wrist is heavily utilized in pitching to put various spin on the ball hence moving it in different directions in the zone. Without spin and deflection, Slowey’s margin for error decreases that much more. 

Without question, Slowey deserves several more starts to find the right track. However, if he continues to exit in the fifth inning and further tax the bullpen, Brian Duensing is always available as a potential replacement.

****

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A different Delmon

As Delmon Young tore through pitching August onwards in 2009, the only accoutrement he was missing was a toned down approach at the plate: He drew just five walks in nearly 200 plate appearances. He was launching the ball all over the field but was still susceptible to hacking at it with total disregard for human life.  Of course, this was business-as-usual for Young, as he has been a low-walk, high-strikeout individual since, presumably, his inception.

Even though he completed the first month of the 2010 season with a less-than-stellar showing, posting a .222/.292/.381 batting line in 72 plate appearances, there were positives to dwell on. For instance, the undercurrent of that substandard line was 7 walks, a large quantity for someone who drew only 12 in 416 plate appearances in 2009. Then, the April showers gave way to May flowers as Young went ballistic on the baseball, hitting .419/.438/.677 in his 32 plate appearances and dropping line drives at a 21 percent clip.

Could this be the season Young final produces at his potential? There are several signs that it might:

	2010	2009	2008
Chase%	28%	40%	41%
InPlay%	33%	21%	24%
AVG on OOZ	.261	.168	.178
SLG on OOZ	.478	.202	.228

Via Inside Edge

Over the course of his three years in a Twins uniform, Young has clearly trimmed his tenacity towards stray pitches. In the past, he’s been a non-discriminating free-swinger, leading to just 47 free passes in 2008-2009. To this point, he’s withheld the lumber on those pitches that would normally elude him. Although he is still hacking at out-of-zone pitches at a rate higher than average, he’s increased his contact on the less-than-choice offerings, driving the ball rather than missing it altogether.

	2010	2009	2008
Non-Competitive Chase%	22%	35%	36%

Via MyInsideEdge.com

Young has also improved in his ability to refrain from swinging at non-competitive pitches (like those that are cruising at 32,000 feet). These are offerings that have just as much of a likelihood of smacking against the limestone backstop as they do the catcher’s mitt. In his first season as a Twin, Young swung at 36 percent of those types of pitches, the second-highest in baseball behind teammate Carlos Gomez. In the following season, despite whittling it down to 35 percent, he led all of baseball in this dubious honor. So far this season, Young has kept his overzealous tendencies in check, chasing after 22 percent of non-competitive pitches. Again, keeping his bat cemented to his shoulder leads to more walks and/or better pitches to drive as he slips into hitter’s counts.

	2010	2009	2008
K% in PA that reach two-strikes	26%	45%	36%

Via MyInsideEdge.com

In addition to his embargo on laughable pitches, Young has shown signs of life in otherwise terminal counts. After laying down and striking out in 45 percent of his plate appearances that bled into two-strike territory in 2009, the left fielder has struck out in just 26 percent of plate appearances that has reached two strikes in 2010 (much better than the league’s 35 percent average).  This battle tendency is part of the reason Young has been able to trim his strikeout rate in half.

If he can maintain this pace without relapsing for the season’s duration, Young could eventually reach that teeming potential that has been associated with him since his draft day. People often forget that at 24 years old, Young is at an age that most prospects begin to find their way into the majors. Admittedly, he’s demonstrated little in the way of plate discipline up to this point, but at the same time, he’s been give little opportunity to let it develop as he has been accelerated through the minor league system. Understandably, the season is still in its infancy so there is plenty of baseball remaining for things to go awry – after all, Young has not shown that he can sustain such discipline over an entire season – yet these are all strong indicators that he has progressed at the plate.   

Mauer's getting aggressive on the outer-half

After reviewing the team’s data on their off-day, one stat drew my attention: Joe Mauer has expanded his hitting zone and is now following after a significantly higher amount of out-of-zone pitches. After offering at 21% of pitches outside the hitting zone in ’09, he’s up to 30% in the season’s initial month. This has not affected his performance per se; it’s simply a curious trend for the reputably selective Mauer.

 

Or maybe there’s a little more to that statistical jump.

 

It was no secret that in 2009, Joe Mauer loved to take the ball to the opposite field. When going away, Mauer was able to lift the ball at a 48% clip which resulted in 16 of his 28 home runs as well as a .911 slugging percentage.  Pitchers would enable Mauer’s habit by locating over half of their pitches in the outer-half of the plate, thereby playing to his strength. As opponents continued to pour pitches away to the Twins catcher, Mauer displayed some zen-like discipline, chasing after just 44 pitches (5% of his overall total) on balls thrown outside the strike zone away.

 

This year has seen slightly different results for Mauer. While he has leveled out the lofty fly balls -- his fly ball rate in that direction is down to 37% as his line drive rate has shot up to 44% -- he is still stroking the ball solidly. Despite not sneaking the ball over the fence with as much ease in the current season, Mauer is slugging .656 with six extra base hits to left. Similarly, Inside Edge’s numbers show that he is exercising a .244 well-hit average on pitches away while the rest of the league is hitting just .095. What is interesting, and probably reflective in his overall chase increase, is that he has swung at 25 pitches (17% of his overall total) on balls thrown outside the zone away.

 

	2009	2010
Chase% (Away)	5%	17%
Fly Ball% (Opposite Field)	48%	37%
Line Drive% (Opposite Field)	32%	44%
Well-Hit Average (Away)	.150	.244

Via BillJamesOnline.net, Fangraphs.com and MyInsideEdge.com

Perhaps in the season’s early going Mauer has pressed a bit more and has expanded his hitting zone in hopes of reaching a few more seats in the outfield. Perhaps it simply is Mauer cheating a bit on the outer-half of the plate as pitchers are favoring that locale. Whatever the reason, he is still handling the pitch well, as indicative of his line drive rate and well-hit average, it is just that he is simply go after it more frequently.

To be fair, the bar was set freaky high in 2009 as Mauer completed his superhuman first month of his season  with a .414/.500/.838 batting line and 11 home runs – topping his 2008 tater total in just 30 days. Mauer’s home run totals were almost certain to subside from the prior season as his 20.4% HR/FB rate was well above his career norm. This year Mauer has been an image to his regular self. His batting average is high (.345), he is reaching base at a 40% clip (.406) and slugging at .500. With the exception of the heel injury that took him out for a handful of games, things appear business-as-usual with the Twins’ franchise player.

 

Did Nick Blackburn subtract a pitch?

Nick Blackburn’s triumphant return to the mound on Tuesday night was punctuated with a high percentage of groundballs, a downright retro-performance by his standards while lasting the duration of the ballgame. Earlier in the week, Blackburn was in vintage lawnmower form: Of the Tigers’ 33 balls that were put into play, he coaxed 21 of those to remain on the ground. This was a terrific sign for a pitcher who had opponents launching an all-out aerial assault in the prior month, tagging him for six home runs and a hefty .653 slugging percentage.

Sticking mostly with his two-seam fastball with sink action, Blackburn tested the integrity of Target Field’s sod all night long. Assisted by an infield slowed by rain, 19 of the 21 waterlogged grounders were converted to outs. Despite working through the lineup proficiently and using only 94 pitches, Blackburn was seemingly flirting with disaster right up until J.J. Hardy’s game-saving defensive decision as 11 other batted balls became hits.

After the game, Blackburn told LaVelle E Neal that he “threw just a handful of sliders because his slider wasn’t very sharp.” Not only was the slider apparently lacking bite on Tuesday, but it has been missing all season. According to the pitch f/x mapping over the past two years, there is a pitch that is noticeably absent in his repertoire:

What these two charts indicate is that Blackburn is no longer throwing his slider. As a pitcher that relies heavily on movement and command, losing one bullet in his arsenal is potentially problematic. In 2009, Blackburn was in the bottom five in the categories of Swinging Strikes, Contact Rate and Balls in Play. This season, Blackburn is the lowest among all qualified starters across the board:

Blackburn’s pitch results	Swing Strike%	Contact%	Balls in Play%
Average	14%	80%	30%
2009	9%	87%	37%
2010	4%	94%	43%

via Baseball-Reference.com

The natural assumption is that the decline in these marks is a direct correlation to his discarded slider. And that would be fairly accurate. In 2009, Blackburn’s slider - with a 10% whiff rate - was his pitch most likely to receive a swing-and-miss. This season he has been filling this void with more hittable fastballs and changeups thus the higher contact totals.

Blackburn has always been the socialist pitcher who regularly redistributes the outs to his fellow defenders yet his strikeouts per 9 innings has fallen from the concerning 4.29 in ’09 to a spit-takingly low 2.48 in ’10. Although he is not anything remotely similar to a strikeout pitcher (a career 4.4 K/9 coming into this season), Blackburn still needs to maintain some level of respectability in this department. More balls put between the chalk lines also creates more opportunities for hits, which is a nasty precursor for runs. Reestablishing his slider could help elevate his strikeout total and reduce the amount of balls in play.

Span's hand placement.

On Friday, I documented Denard Span’s obnoxiously large groundball rate that has skewed from his typical career marks. After hitting under 54% of his batted balls as grounders in his first two seasons at the major league level, Span has seen this rate jump up to over 60%. What’s more is that the increase in worm-burners has come at the expense of his line drives - that figured has dropped from 26% in ’08 to a league-average 19% rate in ’09 to a new low of 15.1%. The consequence of the displacement of liners is a .242 batting average heading into Monday’s game, thanks to a heavily depressed BABIP of .267.

 

This is a curious trend as the majority of Span’s peripheral numbers have remained intact. He is not chasing more pitches out of the zone or making less contact in general. In fact, his zone discipline may be the best since his arrival with the Twins as he has coaxed a walk in 15.6% of his plate appearances by chasing just 16.3% of pitches out of the strike zone. Similarly, pitchers are throwing him the same mix of pitches that he has faced in the previous two seasons with a healthy emphasis on fastballs, so it is not as if he is getting an influx of breaking balls.  

 

Because of this radical decline in his liners and inflation in the grounders, I went back to the MLB.com video archives to see if there is anything different about his swing. Admittedly, Span’s effortless mechanics and lightning quick wrists leave little to be diagnosed. Whereas Delmon Young and JJ Hardy were virtual trainwrecks and had shortcomings that were easy to spot, Span has very minimal amount of moving parts. His entire mechanics are a simple shift of his hips before breaking his hands at the ball.

 

After staring at several dozen clips of his swings from the past three years, one thing began to jump out that differed this year from 2008-2009 that might explain why Span is having difficulty elevating the ball: Hand positioning. In his first two years, Span kept his hands away from his body, slightly extended and out over the plate. His bottom hand was basically at the same height as his lead shoulder. This season he has brought his hands in closer to his body, tucking his elbow in more and moving his front forearm closer to his chest – a slight yet noticeable variation. Though this may seem like a particularly minor flaw, it can still effect a player’s swing immensely. In Span’s case, it appears to be inciting more bouncers as he is hitting the top part of the baseball because of a downward motion caused by the new hand placement. 

 

To highlight this, below are two images both from Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City (one from ’09 and one from this season) to ensure that the camera angles are as similar as possible. While these are two isolated clips, I can say that this was a trend repeated over and over in the last two seasons. The first picture is from last season (2009):

 

Above we find that Span's lead arm angle is near 90 degrees. The following image from 2010 shows a slight change in his arm bend: 

 

Here's a look at his wrist action as he begins to offer at the pitch:

 

The clip on the left (from 2009) demonstrates how he was able to keep his swing level and drive at the middle part of the ball with this hand location. It is just a simple turn of his hands and he maintains a very consistent plane, one almost parallel to the ground with his right arm extension. In the clip on the right (2010), Span's has a fraction of a fraction of an second longer to go to the point of contact since his hands are closer to his body. Even though he has very quick hands, this new placement could potentially be the cause of the added ground balls as he appears to be hitting the top-half of the baseball more often as his front arm drives downward instead of extending across. 

The interesting aspect here is if this alteration was encouraged by the coaching staff, like hitting coach Joe Vavra and Michael Cuddyer worked on, or if Span himself felt more comfortable with this positioning. In Cuddyer's case, the Twins felt that he could generate more power if he dropped his hands down. So far, that approach has paid dividends for the right fielder (4 HR, .178 ISOP) who has been a historically slow starter. Span, on the other hand, did seem to need much in the way of tinkering. After all, he has hit .305/.390/.422 for his career coming into this season.

It should be reiterated that he has a solid foundation. His plate discipline, wrist action and ability to make contact along with his speed will ensure that he will put up respectable numbers even if he hits a higher than normal amount of grounders. Post-April, Span has gone 7-for-14 with two extra base hits and a 38.5% line drive rate in those past three games. This could be the signs of him either adjusting (moving his hands again) or acclimating to his new approach (knowing which pitch he can drive). As the summer progresses, keep an eye on this stance as well as his ground ball rate.