Bullpen elevates Twins

The Twins bullpen – figured to be the most questionable area of the team coming into the season - has helped elevate the club to a 6-2 record. Through the first eight ballgames, the late inning clean-up crew has exercised a 1.66 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, best in the American League. What has been the early season formula for success?

(1) No walks.

They have dominated opponents by dominating the strike zone. The relief staff has walked just one (Jose Mijares) in 21.2 innings of work, which keeps opponents from adding base-runners during pivotal portions of the game. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Washington Nationals relievers have issued 20 walks in 28.2 innings leading to a 5.02 group ERA. Because of the miniscule 0.42 BB/9 the Twins relievers hold an unearthly 14.00 K/BB ratio in spite of averaging just 5.8 K/9. To put that into context, the next closest team is the Atlanta Braves who hold a 4.29 K/BB ratio thanks to a 10.38 K/9.

(2) First-pitch strikes.

This goes hand-in-hand with the no walks. In 63.0% of plate appearances, the relievers have achieved strike one, well-above the 58% baseball average. Only Toronto’s 73.8% first pitch strike percentage is better in the American League. Getting strike one ensures that the Twins pitchers position themselves well. Everybody other than Brian Duensing (46.2%) and Alex Burnett (33.3%) hold percentages over 50%. Jose Mijares leads the staff with an 81.8% rate while Jon Rauch (68.4%), Matt Guerrier (64.7%) and Jesse Crain (63.6%) are not far behind.

(3) Getting hitters to chase their pitches.

The byproduct of throwing first-pitch strikes and working ahead is being able to move the ball of the plate. While pitchers typically throw a fastball 62% of the time, the Twins relief staff has had the luxury of using their breaking stuff, mostly sliders (30%), far more frequently because of their ability to get ahead. Since the Twins are throwing pitches in the zone at a high rate, they have also enticed plenty of swings are pitches that dart out of the strike zone. At 35.7% out-of-zone swings, the relief staff is coaxing hitters to go after their pitches. While opponents have put a fair amount of those out-of-zone pitches in play, they have failed to make solid contact – hitting line drives just 12% of the time (2nd only to the Diamondbacks).

(4) Stranding runners.

The relievers have stranded 93% of all runner put on base, head-and-shoulders above all the other clubs (the next closest is the Mets at 84%) and well-above the 71.7% average. Their current rate is bound to revert closer to the average, but for now it is working.    

Opening Day and Quick Review

As I ready myself for the home opener (i.e. paint my face and put on my Twins unitard), I replayed the final play of the Twins/White Sox series several times to figure out, you know, just what the hell happened. Here is a list of things that should be noteworthy as the play unfolded:

(1) Juan Pierre has a historically bad arm. Last year his arm was -2 runs defensive (10th worst in MLB). According to the Fans Scouting Report at InsideTheBook.com, Pierre’s arm strength rating of 1.3 (out of 5) was the second-worst among left fielders, ahead of only Johnny Damon. Given the play deep against the USCellular wall, Pierre has to make (1a) a very strong throw and (1b) a very accurate throw.

 

(2) The infield defense was pulled around to the right for the Thome shift. Not a lot of teams work on cut offs from this alignment. If anything, you could bet there would be some sort of defensive breakdown under a scenario like that. The shortstop, Alexi Ramirez, who was supposed to be the cut on a ball hit to left field, was actually near center field. The third baseman, Mark Teahan, broke for third base then back out to the outfield to position himself for a cut. "I've never been on a team where the third baseman was the relay man in left-center," Hardy said. "That's what's weird about it."

Ullger admitted that he was not focused on Teahan, he was looking at (3) Alexi Ramirez, the designated cut-off man in that situation, who for the record, has what is considered an inaccurate arm. The human fungo bat committed six throwing errors last year and was scouted by the fans as having a 2.6 rating for arm accuracy. That, coupled with being completely out-of-position, makes it easier to keep that arm windmilling around for Hardy.

Only it wasn’t Ramirez who was fielding the relay, it was Mark Teahan and (4) Teahan has an absolute rocket for an arm. So now, 120 feet away from home plate, Teahan is lining up to receiving a cut from Pierre. At this point, Hardy is just about to round third when it is apparent that Pierre’s throw will reach Teahan and not careen off into the stands or skip up to him. Ullger can see this. It is developing right in front of him. Only, he’s looking towards Ramirez who is nowhere near the throw. Teahan fields it cleanly right as Hardy is pushing off third base and readies a throw to home. Reviewing the video, it is clear this is the point where Ullger realizes what has actually happened and wanders on to the playing surface (I thought he was going to try for the interception).

 

All this should probably be moot because (5) JJ Hardy is not fast. Still, with two outs, how isn’t Hardy already rounding second by the time the ball lands? Is he THAT slow? Truthfully, he might be. He’s gone from first to home on just a handful of occasions in his career. He doesn’t steal bases. According to the BillJamesOnline.net player profile, Hardy’s running skills are in the 11th percentile. That’s slow. At the same time, Thome's shot was on a rope so it is hard to get up to speed as quickly as the ball traveled (not to mention, Pierre was playing just a few steps short of the warning track anyways).

But at the same time (6) Nick Punto was due up next. Coming into the game, Punto was 2-for-12 and a 1-for-4 lifetime hitter off of Bobby Jenks. With just Alexi Casilla  – who was going to have to go in for Thome in the event of a tie – and Drew Butera remaining on the bench, there was no other option to face Jenks with two outs. In retrospect, yeah, letting Punto have a shot at driving in one or more runs wasn't such a bad option. 

Back on the Crain gang.

On Thursday night Jesse Crain faced four batters. After allowing Hideki Matsui to reach on a single he then proceeded to strike out Kendry Morales, Juan Rivera and Howie Kendrick on three sliders that were so indescribably nasty, it was something that even the guys from Jersey Shore wouldn't sleep with. 

Since a demotion to Rochester mid-season last year, Crain has re-established himself as a force in the Twins bullpen. After being recalled in July, Crain finished the season throwing 34 innings with a 2.91 ERA and a 30/15 K/BB ratio while not allowing a home run in that duration. This season, armed with several adjustments to his throwing style, the righty has picked up where he left off. In fact, judging from his 2.2 innings where he has allowed just one hit while striking out four in the young season, I'd venture to say he's even better than that - particularly with this improved out-pitch.

Using pitchF/X, we see several differences in Crain's slider from late last year to his first pair of outings this year:

 

Crain's slider	Count	Vel.(mph)	Vertical	Horizontal	Whiff
9/1-10/6/09	72	87.7	2.81	2.76	15.3%
4/2010	13	83.6	-1.28	2.14	23.1%

 

First, Crain has reduced the velocity - shaving off 4-mph and leading to a 10-mph difference from his fastball.  Last year's model only gave opponents a 6-mph difference. This differential will not only improve the breaking pitch but also quicken his fastball. Secondly, the current upgrade demonstrated a greater vertical drop with less horizontal movement, potentially incited more missed bats and groundballs. 

The chart below, lifted from brooksbaseball.net, shows us how pitchF/X pitches are identified using their vertical and horizontal breaks. The fastballs and changeups have little vertical movement (in fact, with the backspin, fastballs typically rise) while the cutter through the curveball run the spectrum of horizontal and vertical movement: 

Using what was identified as Crain's slider from September 1st until the end of the season, we find that his slider fits neatly within the general area accepted to be a slider's spin:

However, when we compare that to the movement of this year's slider, we see that the points do not fall as readily into that area:

The vertical drop bleeds into the area that is typically assigned a curveball yet there is not enough horizontal break to label the pitch a "slurve". The reason it was not categorized as a curveball in Crain's case is because Crain throws his bender at 74-mph. 

This is a significant change in his slider. It could be that this speed variance and the break alteration are a byproduct of his reworked mechanics or a result of Crain staying back on more instead of rushing through his motion. Another possibility is that is an a newly introduced hybrid pitch. Whatever explanation the discrepancy between the two versions may be, the results thus far have been terrific. 

A look at Hardy's new mechanics

 

When the Twins acquired JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez, they assumed a product in Hardy who had offensive potential but was in need of repair. Baseball-Intellect.com's Alex Eisenberg documented this mechanical digression over the past several seasons. Essentially, Hardy attempted to make adjustments in 2009, beginning to bar his arm out in a more pronounced fashion (keeping his front arm straight instead of bending at the elbow) in addition to a very time-consuming leg-kick (lifting his leg, back in with a tap, then forward again). Visual evidence of this swing is seen below:

 

His numbers dropped substantially across the board. His wOBA dropped from .355 to .292. Holes in his swing were prevalent. This longer swing kept the shortstop from turning on pitches with much authority. In 2008, Hardy turned on 58% of pitches thrown inside, pulling them to left field with power (.969 slugging). A year later, he was yanking only 49% of inside pitches with a significant decrease in his power capabilities (.526 slugging).

 

Hardy Pitched Inside:	Pulled%	Slugging Pct On Pitches Pulled
2009	49%	.526
2008	58%	.969
2007	69%	.729

 

You can see from the animation above that Hardy's tardy swing forces him to fight off the fastball inside instead of turning on it. 

 

When the Twins acquired him, they realized there were corrections that needed to be made. According to assistant GM Rob Antony the Twins had Joe Vavra dig into Hardy's problems. His conclusions were the same: long swing, arm barring out. Spring training was a process of ironing out these kinks and implementing an improved mechanical system was unveiled in Anaheim. Hardy has closed his stance a bit, removed the added toe-tap in his stride and added a bend in his elbow. All this in conjunction has quickened his swing and moved him through the hitting zone rapidly:

 

This faster swing has gotten Hardy to open up his hips more when attacking the pitch: 

 

As you can tell from the top image, Hardy is still back while the pitch is almost at to the hitting zone. In the lower image, Hardy is driving towards the ball, already moving his hips and upper body towards to zone. This is a stark contrast from the above image in which Hardy is still loaded.  

Through three games, Hardy is 4-for-12 with two home run. While his contact rate needs improvement, this is a step in the right direction for the 27-year-old. Like Kelsie Smith noted in the Pioneer Press this morning, the early returns are favorable for the newest Twins shortstop. "I shortened up my swing; my stance is a lot different. My hands aren't as far away from my body as they were in '09, which makes it a lot easier to get to the ball." Hardy told Smith after Wednesday's game. "It was a full year of creating bad habits, and it's taken some time to get rid of them, but I feel like I'm on the right path." 

This certainly bodes well for him and an swift return to his pre-2009 performance level.

 

OtB Opening Day Notes

Denard Span had a rough first night, going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts. After taking 8 pitches in a decent plate appearance to start the game, Span struck out looking, then swinging in the 3rd and again in the 7th. It was his first game with three or more strikeouts since his 0-for-4 four strikeout night against Detroit on September 20th, 2009. 

Likewise, Scott Baker's night began shaky - perhaps because of nerves or excitement. His first inning was littered with erratic offerings, missing wildly with his fastball and curve. I tweeted during the game that his release point was wandering that inning. As a result, his slider and other off-speed offerings stayed up in the zone. 

Here is a pitch type map of last night (note the orange square for slider):

Here is a pitch type map for an October 1st, 2009 start (note the orange square for slider):

Obviously, Baker works up in the zone regularly with his fastball but his slider is typically down in the zone when he is on (as you can see above in his 10/1/09 outing against Detroit). Last night, Angels hitters were able to sit on fastball. In fact, his confidence in his other pitches waned so much that at one point in the 5th inning, Baker threw 10-straight fastballs, mixed in a change-up before throwing two more fastballs to Hideki Matsui that resulted in an RBI single.

Mauer struck out looking in the 3rd inning. In 2009, Mauer struck out looking 11 times. 

Delmon Young's first home run of the season - as Darren Wolfson noted last night - was equal to his April and May production combined last year. What stood out to me, even before he took that swing, was Young was using the same mechanics from his second-half of the 2009 season. As I documented in December, Young's new muted leg kick was helping him elevate the ball more leading to more home runs. Unfortunately, within the same game, we also witnessed why Young will continue to be frustrating. After Angels reliever Fernando Rodney opened the 8th inning with four-consecutive balls to Michael Cuddyer then proceeded to fall behind Jason Kubel, Young hacked at the first pitch that was out of the zone, rolling it over for an inning-ending double play.

Speaking of Rodney, the Angels signed him to a two-year, $11 million contract this offseason, to see his fastball reach 90.3-mph last night. This is a 5-mph decrease from last October when he was chucking his heat at 95.4-mph.