Nathan's injury: Should we have seen this coming?

The standard rule of thumb for sniffing out elbow injuries is a decrease a pitcher’s control. Whereas a shoulder injury will likely reveal itself through a decrease in velocity, the elbow injury will manifest itself through a loss of command.  

With that in mind, a more vigilant (read: paranoid) observer may have been able to detected Joe Nathan’s injury potential in the latter half of 2009, or at least raised the concern that maybe that tinge in your elbow might be a larger concern: 

Nathan’s Control:	In Zone%	BB%
2007	49.3	6.7
2008	48.3	6.8
2009	45.4	8.1

This trend was even more prevalent in the concluding portion of the season when his in-zone rate dropped to 40 percent and his walk rate rocketed to 12 percent.  In addition to his decline in control, Nathan was getting slapped around harder than any other stretch of time in the past three years as his slugging percentage rose to .459 from August onward. This may have been indication that he was wild within the zone, missing his intended target and leaving a pitch far too hittable.

This drop in his command is almost certainly connected to the elbow problem revelation at the end of last season, which I discussed at some length in the Maple Street Press Twins Annual 2010. After the season, Nathan admitted that he was having elbow issues and was throwing at less than 100%. This prompted him to consult Dr James Andrews who recommended removing some bone chips.

It should be noted that bone chips/spurs are sometimes generated from a loose UCL. Basically, bones spurs start to grow on the elbow in the body’s attempts to stabilize the area caused by the collision of bone due to the loose UCL. This can be an early indication that future problems with the UCL are forthcoming. Because of this, combined with the in-season performance issues, Nathan’s injury is far from a surprise.

Dr Andrews may have informed Nathan that there was a probability of having UCL problems in the future during the original examine, or even that there were signs of tears, but simply removing the bone chips and hoping the UCL would hold up was the best practice at this juncture in his career. As with many pitchers before him, some feel significantly better after rest but then ultimately tear the UCL when attempting to throw above a 75% capacity (which was probably the case in his spring training outing). Knowing that Tommy John is basically a death sentence for his career thus really had to proactively pursue in the immediate offseason, rest and rehab were the only realistic options. Because of these series of events, the Twins seemed to have taken the right approach with Nathan.  

Nick Blackburn and opportune groundballs

After tossing around 200 innings in each of the last two seasons, Nick Blackburn has been the organization’s most dependable starter, able to digest innings while other members of the rotation succumb to injury or ineffectiveness.  Even more impressive is how the 28-year-old has managed to produce a decent statistical line (22-22, 4.04 ERA) the past two years while allowing 464 hits, the second-most over that time frame, and missing bats on just a 12.7% of the total swings, the third-worst in baseball.

With this type of contact-fetish, most pitchers of that ilk rarely experience any sustained, long-term success. How has Blackburn skirted the punishment that most of his low-strikeout kinfolk suffer?

One of the simplest answers is well-timed groundballs.

While giving up the fourth-most hits in the AL (224) coupled with the 11^th highest slugging percentage against (.441), Blackburn averted disaster and completed the year with a better than average ERA (4.05) thanks to the second-most twin-killings (31) in ‘08. Within Blackburn’s batted ball splits that season, the data indicates that the righty was particularly adept at getting a groundball under double-play conditions – 10 percentage points higher than when no runners were on base: 

2008 Batted Ball Splits	GB%	OPS
Bases empty	43.2	.831
Runner (s) On, DP situation	53.2	.713

These double-plays helped erase 10% of his total amount of baserunners allowed in ’08.

This past season is another exemplary instance of how Blackburn tip-toed around near catastrophe. After allowing 240 hits (the most in baseball), one would expect a similar spike in runs scored. Once again, while striking out fewer than five batters per nine innings, Blackburn procured a 4.03 ERA. Unlike the previous year, the number of double-plays turned behind him shrank from 31 to 17, in part due to shoddier middle infield defense and the overall regression of his groundball numbers. Instead of an over 50% groundball rate in double-play opportunities like the prior season, Blackburn turned in a 43.2% groundball rate – reverting back towards his career norms.

Where his groundballs prospered in ’09 was with runners in scoring position. Under these conditions, Blackburn was able to increase his groundball rate, inciting a bouncer on 53.8% of balls in play – a stark contrast to his 44.9% when no runners were on or not in scoring position:

2009 Batted Ball Splits	GB%	OPS
Runner (s) in scoring position	53.8	.597
All other circumstances	44.9	.806

By keeping the ball on the ground, opponents slugged just .321 in scoring opportunities versus slugging .471 under the other circumstances. What’s more is that a vast majority of those groundballs hit with runners in scoring position resulted in outs.

There is little indication of why Blackburn’s groundball rates spiked in these samples. Pitch data does not reveal any trends that reveal him favoring a pitch or a location that would help explain the variance. In short, he was not doing anything differently under those conditions in either ’08 or ’09 and the likely scenario is that this will regress in 2010 resulting in more runs allowed.

At 28-years-old, Blackburn is on the fringe of exiting what is accepted as a pitcher’s peak years (25-29) so it is possible the Twins have already been recipients of his best seasons and subtle decline will happen as he progresses into his 30s. On top of that, there is perhaps only one right-handed starter that struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings that had a lengthy career (Bob Tewksbury). That said, he’s got little injury history, walks fewer than two batters per nine innings and will transition to a grass infield with a much improved middle infield defense. These factors could allow him to continue to churn out seasons replicating the previous two, in which case $3.5 million per season is a bargain. Just as every multi-billionaire should have a Honda Accord in the back of the garage in the event that the Aston Martin doesn’t start or the Lamborghini tears a rotator cuff, the Twins have secured their reliable vehicle in Blackburn for the next four years by buying out his arbitration years at a very modest cost.

Chase reduction, not weight reduction

In bartending terminology, a chaser usually follows a questionable offering. In the baseball world, the same basic principle applies.

Chasers are hitters that pursue pitches that are out of the strike zone. This often proves to be a fruitless endeavor as the average hitter batted .142 (.629 OPS) on those wayward pitches in ’09. From time to time, even the most disciplined hitters are fooled by a slider darting away or a changeup whose bottom is dropping out. This is why roughly a quarter of all pitches thrown out of the strike zone were swung at. Then there are those that swing regardless of a pitch’s eventual destination.

Some chasers are megalomaniacs who believe that they can hit anything tossed in their zip code. The Rangers’ Vladimir Guerrero fits into this mold. His pitch selection goes through the same rigorous quality-control process as many late-model Toyotas. Although the free-swinging Guerrero has hacked at 44.1 percent of all out-of-zone pitches, he made contact at a very high rate and managed to hit .208 (.655 OPS) on those pitches, in effect beating the house.

Just further down the chaser spectrum is Delmon Young. Like Guerrero, Young is also a member of Hacktastic’s Warehouse Club – swinging in bulk for large pitch count savings! In ‘09, Young took a cut at 37 percent of all out-of-zone pitches. What differentiates Young from Guerrero is that instead of being able to hit everything, Young misses the lion’s share of those out-of-zone pitches he swings at, making contact with a little over half.

Last year, the Twins left fielder strayed after non-fastball offerings at a very high frequency – chasing 46.5 percent of those types of pitches. The league standard in ’09 on non-fastballs was 29.8 percent. Comparatively, he was relatively selective when it comes to fastballs that are thrown out-of-zone (swung at just 35.3 percent) but still well above the league norms (19.3 percent).

Rather than having delusions of grandeur in his abilities like Guerrero, the more likely explanation for Young’s proclivity for chasing is pitch recognition (or lack thereof). As someone rushed through the minor leagues at a breakneck pace, Young never had time to establish his comprehension as the competition improved at each level. In the past three seasons, Young has shown little progress in this department at the major league level: 

Young’s Chase Percent:	Fastballs	Non-Fastballs	OPS on out-of-zone pitches
2009	35.3	46.5	.472
2008	38.8	45.5	.551
2007	32.2	46.8	.516

*All data provided by Inside Edge

In December, I reviewed video to explain a little more about Young’s late-season surge. Refining his mechanics at the plate from last season and throughout the year, Young was able to elevate the ball more during his hot streak. In terms of his overall offensive development, this is a significant milestone and bodes very well for his power potential in 2010. As his renovated mechanics led to better contact and a drastic improvement in his lift, Young was still falling into the habit of following pitches off of the plate even during this stretch of solid baseball.

Without question, a more vigilant pitch bias would do Delmon Young good. The reason for this is fairly straightforward: Implementing a more discriminatory approach will lead to more pitches in the zone – the type in which he has shown at the latter portion of the last year that he can drive. Furthermore, opting to forgo swinging on errant pitches will inevitably result in more walks and hopefully buoy his on-base percentage above the league-average level.

While much ballyhoo has been made about the 30-something pounds he lost this offseason (which should go a long ways towards improving his mobility in the field and on the bases), the real focus for Young in Florida should be chase reduction, not weight reduction. 

Opposite Field Power or Luck?

Besides sharing the same batter’s box and uniform, there isn’t too much that Joe Mauer and Jim Thome seem to have in common. The Twins catcher prefers consuming Jimmy John’s and Land-O-Lakes milk while Thome, judging from his stature, prefers to chew raw slabs of bacon. After all, Thome’s left calf is roughly the same circumference as Mauer’s torso. Generationally Thome’s ABBA while Mauer’s Ace of Base and nearly 400 home runs separate them on the career leaderboard. However, one trait that the pair shared in 2009 was the tendency to favor handing out souvenirs to the left field bleachers:

 

2009 Home Runs	Opposite	Center	Pulled
J. Mauer	16	7	5
J. Thome	12	7	4

*Data from HitTrackerOnline.com

 

Mauer lifted 16 of his 28 home runs to left (57%) as 12 of Thome’s 23 home runs followed a similar flight pattern (52%). To be sure, this is unorthodox for lefties. Their left-handed kindred will pull 75% of his total home runs while driving just 12% to left field yet Mauer and Thome’s numbers are almost the inverse. Like most everything else about the two, the reason behind this trend couldn’t be more different.

 

Mauer’s directional power isn’t surprising. He has always had a high amount of his home runs leave the yard in the opposite direction but nothing like this past season. In his career, he’s elevated more pitches when he drives them to the opposite field (49.2% fly ball rate to left) versus when he pulls the ball (7.6% fly ball rate to right). If he were going to hit a significant amount of home runs, he would almost have to do it to left. What happened in ’09 was that Mauer had a higher than average amount of fly balls barely escape the playing field: 11 of his 28 home runs (39%) were categorized as “Just Enough” in distance. This 39% mark was well above the league average of 27% and is ripe for regression in 2010.  As a player in his peak-playing age, I do not anticipate Mauer to regress far – a 20-home run guy feels more appropriate.

 

Thome, on the other hand, has made a career of denting empty seats above the right field baggy at the Metrodome and other stadiums around baseball for the better part of the ‘90s and ‘00s. In his recent years, his penchant for bombing the right side of the field has slowed down some. In ‘07 21% of homers when to left while 19% went there last year. This frequency suddenly shot up to 52% in ’09. Meanwhile, his pull numbers went from 38% to 44% down to 17%. In addition to aging to the point where his bat speed is enviably decreasing, Thome suffered through bouts with plantar fasciitis last year, influencing his overall play. While it is possible that a fully-healthy Thome may see his distribution revert closers to his career marks at his age and health, it is just as likely as he collapses further in the power department. Given these factors, coupling on the notion that is moving away from a very hitter-friendly park in Chicago, it’s easy to expect five fewer home runs on his total (18) if given roughly the same number of plate appearances in 2010.

OtB Twins Notes (03.01.10)

In response to reporting late to spring training, Justin Morneau said that he wanted some additional rest before hitting the regular season grind -- one in which he semi-jokingly said won't contain back-to-back days off until the All Star Break. After consecutive seasons in which his production went south in the second-half of the year (2009's injury notwithstanding), the Twins have to be considering how to handle Justin Morneau's playing time to ensure he's at full-strength in the latter portion of the schedule. Sitting him more frequently in the first-half may be a sound option in order to lengthen his effectiveness. However, that replacement probably won't be Jim Thome. Ron Gardenhire excused Thome from the defensive drills this spring in order to curtail the risk of injuring the big man's often injured back.

When the Twins signed baseball's last 20-game loser in Mike Maroth, the bar was set low for him. He would bide his time at Rochester and fill out the rotation in the International League while attempting to demonstrate he still could retire major league hitters. On the surface, his Puerto Rico winter league numbers look appealing (3-0, 2.60 ERA), his 15/13 K/BB ratio in his small sample of 34.2 innings does not project well. Topping out a 83-mph in 2007, his last foray in the majors, Maroth throws a mixture of breaking and off-speed stuff to keep his baby soft fastball from being obliterated. As such, he's a high contact pitcher that relies on his defense to convert the outs behind him. With Brian Duesning, Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship ahead of him on the depth chart, Maroth in a Twins uniform With a 16.2% strikeout percentage against lefties (versus 9.5%  strikeout percentage against righties) in his career, if he can retire left-handed batters at a decent clip in the first-half of the year, Maroth might be a candidate to assume the Ron Mahay role towards the end of the season. 

Kelsie Smith tweeted that Jose Mijares took a Jason Kubel line drive off of his throwing forearm during live batting practice on Sunday. (While Mijares's health is the focal point of this story, I'm impressed that Kubel, a lefty not known for his same-sided hitting abilities, lined a shot off a very overpowering left-handed pitcher). Although Mijares went down after the incited, he walked off the field on his own and is expected to being okay. In an ESPN.com article, an unnamed scout said "left-handed hitters have no chance against him." Last season, Mijares held lefties to a .193 batting average while striking out 27% of the total population faced. 

Danny Valenica has dedicated himself to improving his defense, talking extra infield practice before games while playing in Puerto Rico, but he is still fairly raw in his plate approach and fielding. In truth, he's a Nick Punto or Brendan Harris injury away from being called into service. In camp on Sunday, Valencia was tasked with facing an improved Francisco Liriano. Says Kelly Thesier, who was watching the match-up, Valencia just shook his head after a few fastballs and said "unhittable". 

SOOZE's query regarding Brian Duensing's probability of making the team in '10 prompted ESPN.com's Rob Neyer to comment. Neyer's take? Don't get too attached. Yes, at 27-years-old, Duensing's opportunities to latch on are thinning. Yes, it's hard to expect the sustained performance over the course of 30 starts like he did in his nine in '09. Liriano's re-emergence has made Duensing's climb that much more difficult but the lefty has a better track record than Neyer's citation of record and ERA (two of the worst statistics to use for future performance, by the way). Although his strikeout numbers are fairly muted, in the past three season, Duensing's FIP has been decent and is a groundball-oriented pitcher (50% GB in the minors, 45.5% in majors). 

According to Susan Slusser, the Oakland A's beat writer, pitcher Brett Tomko signed a minor league deal with the A's but received a comparable offer from the Minnesota Twins before ultimately deciding to remain in California. After being released by the Yankees in July following several bad stints out of the bullpen, the A's picked him up and used him as a starter. In six starts, Tomko was 4-1 with a 2.95 in 36.2 innings with a 22/6 K/BB rate. His success in Oakland coincided with a paring back of his changeup and an increased use of his split-finger. Even so, at 37-years-old in 2010, the chances of him repeating those numbers in a bigger sampling are slim.

Fellow TwinsCentric members John Bonnes and Nick Nelson were on the AM1500 with Darren Wolfson for an hour on Sunday discussing some of the pressing Twins topics. On the subject of the prodigal Jacque Jones, Wolfson provided some insight from last year's spring training when Wolfson was covering the sport for CBS and Jones was in camp with the Reds. Said Wolfson on the show: "He's done." It is hard to believe that Jones could bounce from being finished in the majors to making enough progress in the Mexican and Independent Leagues to return to form. 

Former Twins catcher Chad Moeller gives his reflections on catching two of the organization's top pitchers in the past two decades: Johan Santana and Brad Radke. Moeller caught the duo in 2000 and was really only their receiver for roughly 300 hitters between the pair, so his insights probably are not that particularly insightful. The life-long backup catcher caught in the Twins organization from 1996 (after he was drafted in the seventh round following an ACL tear in his last college game) until being traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in March of 2001. You have to credit Moeller for carving out a decent niche as a backstop caddy and collecting a steady paycheck despite being unable to hit his weight (210) from 2004 to 2009 (.209). 

Speaking of former Twins, according to a New York Post article on baseball's code, back in a 2006 Twins-Red Sox match-up at the Metrodome, center fielder Torii Hunter took a hack at a 3-0 fastball in spite of a 8-1 Twins lead. In order to avoid an all-out beanball war, after the game Ron Gardenhire dragged Hunter to a laundry room to meet with Sox manager Terry Francona to explain that the unspoken infraction was due to Hunter's "inattentiveness" rather than attempting to run up the score (or pad his stats).

After playing host to a significant number of teams in the spring, Florida's numbers have begun to dwindle as government-financed complexes in the Arizona desert have lured away teams in recent years. With the Phoenix-area constructing new facilities on a seemingly annual basis, the numbers between teams in the Grapefruit League (Florida) and the Cactus League (Arizona) is now 15-15 between the two states when it was 22-8 in favor of Florida as recently as 1998. The likelihood that the Twins relocate any time soon is minimal. In addition to a strong presence of Minnesota residents that either vacation or retire in the Fort Myers area, the franchise has spent almost every winter conditioning in Florida since 1936 (with the exception of the World War II years). 

At the risk of reporting something that will potentially detract from the TwinsCentric Viewing Party at Major's in Apple Valley on March 13, the Twins and Target Corporation will also be opening Target Plaza outside of the new ballpark on the same date.