The Splits of Nick Punto

Prior to bleating out my Nick Punto Day post a week ago, I descended into his batted ball split numbers located at fangraphs.com to see if the contains the secret to the ebb and flow of his offensive output. In his five seasons in a Twins uniform he’s gone from slightly below average hitter to a super below average hitter and back again. A team that has numerous offensive contributors in the lineup can withstand a slightly below average supplier who can compensate for his offensive shortcomings on defense. When those numbers decline into the red zone of a super below average hitter no amount of glove love can makeup for the lack of production.

As a switch-hitter, Punto has demonstrated very little to indicate that he is more or less proficient from one side of the plate or the other. He’s inept at both. Aside from having a better sample-size from the left-handed batter’s box – an additional 1,000 plate appearances – he had a very balanced equilibrium:

Punto's Splits	Career PA	Slashes	OPS
vs RHP as LHB	1,739	.244/.324/.323	.647
vs LHP as RHB	788	.256/.318/.326	.644

To be sure, there’s nothing particularly attractive about anything he’s done from either side of the plate. Any way you slice it, it’s below average production.

With the reality of Punto starting the season as a regular at third base, we need to try to identify if he is capable of rebounding or if we will witness more abysmal production.

Turning our attention to the past four seasons of his hit distribution, we can see some trends emerge that separate his better years from his putrid years. I highlighted Punto’s better year of 2006 and 2008 in italics and marked the columns that standout to me in red:

Punto's LHB	Pull	BA	LD/GB/FB	Mid.	BA	LD/GB/FB	Opp.	BA	LD/GB/FB
2009	27.6	.182	14/61.4/24.6	38	.316	21.1/52.6/26.3	34.2	.328	28.6/22.2/48.2
2008	36	.323	21.5/60.0/18.5	36	.362	13.6/44.1/42.4	24.2	.350	25.6/28.2/46.2
2007	33.3	.214	6.3/81/12.7	34.5	.329	16.3/46.5/37.2	32.1	.333	18.1/30.6/51.4
2006	33.2	.310	22.9/66.3/10.8	28	.351	23.1/56.4/20.5	35.1	.321	31.3/12.5/56.3
Punto's RHB	Pull	BA	LD/GB/FB	Mid.	BA	LD/GB/FB	Opp.	BA	LD/GB/FB
2009	4.9	.300	15/55/30	27.5	.154	7.7/57.7/34.6	52	.356	19.5/48.8/31.7
2008	28.4	.424	22.6/48.4/29	42	.360	20.8/54.2/25	29.4	.229	22.6/16.1/61.3
2007	33	.244	18.2/56.8/25	33	.196	8.5/55.3/36.2	31.6	.156	23.3/27.9/44.8
2006	21.9	.364	18.8/68.8/12.5	45.8	.348	16.4/44.8/38.8	32.2	.383	26.2/38.1/35.7

Let’s focus in on his left-handed splits first as this was where he had the majority of his at-bats. In 2009 and 2007, otherwise known as The Punto-esque Years, Punto struggled when turning on pitches from the left-handed batter’s box. In 2007, he pulled 33.3 percent of his balls in play but hit an extremely high amount of groundballs (81%). Because he held a below average BABIP on grounders that year, we need to assume that a majority of those wormburners were scooped up by infielders thus the .214 batting average. This past season Punto elevated the ball a tad more (61% GB), but had an even lower BABIP in ’09 on groundballs (.204 versus .230 in ’07) so the assumption is that a greater total of those batted balls were converted to outs thus the .182 batting average when pulling the ball. In comparison to his better years where he hit above .300 while turning on the ball, Punto had above average line drives rates resulting in a few more hits.

One thing that should jump out at you about the progression of his right-handed splits is how he went from a balanced spray-type hitter with up-the-middle tendencies to an extreme opposite field hitter. After successive years of pulling over 20 percent of his pitches, he yanked fewer than 5 percent. There are two logical conclusions that I can draw, (1) he was intentionally slashing pitches the opposite way because he was putting better wood on the ball and getting better results or (2) slowing down physically. Likewise, in his better seasons, Punto drove more line drives back up the middle whereas in his down years, his total amount through the box and on a line both dropped considerable.

There are tons of moving parts to consider when evaluating Nick Punto and projecting his future performance based on his batted ball track record. Overall, he is a groundball hitter that had disproportionately bad and good batted ball averages in the past four years. Maintaining a decent line drive rate and above average walk rate to boot, you would expect his suppressed groundball BABIP to revert back to average (.240) and thus a markedly improved season this coming year. From the left side of the dish, his numbers to center and to left field are consistent. The only discrepancy has been his ability to pull effectively. Because this was contingent on groundballs pushing into the outfield, I suspect that he will post better numbers from that side of the plate as his groundball BABIP equalizes. On the other hand, looking at the direction of some of his hit distributions, I’m inclined to believe that something else is amiss, particularly from the right-side of the plate (maybe injury or age-related decline). This is a minor concern considering that the presence of Brendan Harris on the roster gives Ron Gardenhire a good option to replace Punto against left-handed pitchers.

OtB Twins Notes (02.15.10)

I knew that the payroll had been cresting uncharted levels with each acquisition and arbitration avoidance but when I read that the Twins could have a total payroll higher than that of the Los Angeles Dodgers, I got light-headed.  Of course, this turned out to be somewhat misleading. As Joe Christensen noted in his blog following the Orlando Hudson signing, the Twins were projected to enter 2010 with a payroll near $96 million. However, Jon Weisman at Dodgers Thoughts has estimated the Dodgers’ payroll to be closer to $98 million but a substantial portion of that ($17.9 million) is to cover players that no longer play for Los Angeles. If you subtract that from their existing payroll, the Dodgers are paying their uniformed employees approximately $80.2 million – about $16 million dollars short of that of the Twins. Since USA Today started tracking organization’s payrolls in 1988, Minnesota has not outspent Los Angeles yet, and when those $17.9 million dollars worth of obligations are removed from the McCourt’s ledger, anticipate that the financial pendulum will swing back in favor of the Dodgers.

Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan tweeted that Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson told him that Scott Baker will be the team’s opening day starter this season. Baker very much deserves of this role and with the exception of a 2006 Liriano, the most qualified as well. As I noted in the pitching assessments last October, Baker was one of the game’s elite starting pitchers but whose 4.37 ERA distracts from his actual ability to dominate. In addition to possessing the second-best fastball in the American League by weighted runs standards (behind Cy Young winner Zack Grienke), Baker’s WHIP and K/BB were both seventh best in their respective categories while finishing the year 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA in his final 24 starts.

With a glove-slap to Joe Christensen, Pat Neshek checked in and provided an update to his rehab.  While Christensen chose to focus on his reported velocity (which according to Neshek was around 88-90-mph, about his career average fastball velocity) one area that is more relevant to his Tommy John recovery is the location of his pitches.  Neshek relayed that: “The hitters also said that my fastball was pretty straight when I left it up in the zone (duh) but when it was down it was very hard to see and was a great pitch for me.  After hearing this I knew I had to concentrate now on hitting my spots and keeping the ball low.” What we don’t know is if Neshek was leaving a majority of his fastballs up in the zone as opposed to low, which if he has troubles keeping the ball down might result in some ugly (albeit meaningless) spring numbers. One thing that I keep repeating is that studies have found that control is the last thing to return for TJ pitchers so monitoring where his pitches wind up in spring training rather than how quickly they get there will be more vital to his recovery.  

Fox Sports Net announced that they will be carrying four of the Twins’ spring training games, including the March 13^th meeting with the defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies. As baseball has been gone too long and winter seems to be unending in this state, TwinsCentric has scheduled a TwinsCentric Viewing Party at Major’s Sports Café in Apple Valley. This will give local Twins fans the opportunity to congregate under one roof to watch and discuss preseason baseball with some of the collaborators of the Maple Street Press Twins Annual 2010. In addition to watching the game and basking in the glow of fellow Twins fans, TwinsCentric patrons will receive $2 pints and two-for-one appetizers as well as the opportunity to win copies of the Maple Street Press Twins Annual, Sethspeaks.net 2010 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, Major’s Sports Cafe gift cards and many more Twins-related products. For more information and updates on this event as we grow closer to that March 13^th date, following TwinsCentric’s twitter feeds or friend us on Facebook.

What It Means to be Punto-esque

For whatever reason, the mere mention of “Nick Punto” and “starting job” evokes a kneejerk reaction as if someone just suggested aborting puppies on Christmas morning. You would think that in addition to rounding third a tad too overzealously in the deciding divisional game, needlessly diving headlong into first base to impress some omnipresent Pete Rose and producing incorrigible offensive numbers in successive odd years, that Punto somehow managed to find the opportunity to sleep with everyone’s sister and never call her back. This hatred to one local player might be legendary among the fans but is all this abhorrence validated?

While there is no denying the obvious shortcomings in his batting average (.229) or power (.284 slugging) this past season, but you cannot continue without acknowledging that he was partially a victim of unlucky batted ball outcomes when it came to the former. When people become enamored by his odd-and-even, up-and-down offensive numbers, some fail to comprehend the level of chance that factors in once the ball leaves the bat from year-to-year. Without the capabilities of putting too much of a charge into the ball, Punto’s better offensive season -- at least by batting average standards – of 2008 and 2006 the Twins’ infielder had two very good batting averages on groundballs in play. In 2008 while hitting 44.7 percent of balls on the ground he held a .293 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) - besting the league’s average by .053 points. Likewise, in 2006, Punto hit groundballs on 46.3 percent of balls in play and exercised a decent .282 BABIP on those which was .042 points better than the league average. On the other hand in his down years, his BABIP on groundballs in ’07 was -.010 points below the league average while hitting them 50.9 percent of the time (to be sure, his line drive BABIP was considerably worse than average as well dragging his numbers down a cavernous abyss). Meanwhile, this past season, he knocked 47.7 percent of pitches in play on the ground and managed to post a BABIP of just .204, -.036 points worse than average.

For the record, I do not entirely believe that Punto will be able to rebound in 2010. Because of the aforementioned batted balls, his offensive numbers will be extremely volatile and because of the abundance of replacement option at third, management will be less likely to continue to trot him out there in the event of a prolonged slump. As a hitter that cannot lift too many balls over the fence (or outfielder’s heads for that matter), Punto’s overall batting average is contingent on groundballs finding seams in the infield. In order to overcome this fluctuating game-of-chance that is central to his offensive performance, he has to contribute at a very high level in various other arenas of the game in and out of the batter’s box. There’s plenty of evidence that goes beyond the conventional statistics that highlights Nick Punto’s contributions.

Some people cringe at the term “scrappiness” the same way women do upon hearing John Mayer’s depiction of his Jessica Simpson exploits. One such example that qualifies as a scrapper in which he excelled was working the count, taking pitches, fouling a large number off and ultimately drawing a walk. Punto’s 4.20 pitches-per-plate appearance was the highest in the Twins lineup. Part of this was due to his ability to foul off pitches. In total, he fouled off 341 pitches (46% of his swings) more than his total swings that wound up in fair territory (308). Even though this is not a redeemable skill per se, Punto had 35 at bats in which he made a pitcher throw seven or more pitches, roughly 10% of a starting pitcher’s arsenal in one plate appearance. In the end, this does not show up in a boxscore (and habitually annoys the viewer at home who just wants to see hitter’s mash taters) but this conducts an invaluable service by allowing his team to see the pitcher’s entire repertoire and wears said pitcher down much quicker. Furthermore, Punto’s managed to finish the at bat more frequently with a free pass to first this past season – increasing his walk rate from 8.5% in ’08 to 13.5% in ’09. Because of his higher than the norm walk rate Punto’s .337 on-base percentage was above tolerable and average for an American League infielder. If he can somehow coax the baseball gods to allow a few more of those grounders to skip into the outfield and maintain this walk rate, the Twins would have an above average infielder.      

Although there is no widely accepted stat that encompasses baserunning(uh)itude that is accepted on the same level of other metrics, there is no doubt that Punto runs the bases like a Lexus hugging the California coastal highway. On the bases in ‘09 Punto’s well-timed tenacity and willingness to scamper for the extra base regularly gave the Twins a runner in scoring position. He swiped 16 bases in 19 attempts, advancing safely 84% of the time. More than that, he made just one out on the bases outside of the three times he was caught stealing. According to Bill James’ Baserunning Analysis Punto netted +27 in total bases. For what turned out to be a part-time player, this was phenomenal. Tenth on James’s Baserunning Analysis leaderboard for the season was former Twin Jason Bartlett who was +30, had a little over a hundred additional plate appearances than Punto to gain his extra bases. As a ninth hitter, he truly does don the qualities of a “second leadoff hitter” – getting on base and scoring runs from the bottom of the order.   

On defense, Punto provides flexibility, which is a quality and service that cannot be overlooked with expanding bullpens claiming precious roster space. And he does so not in the same manner as “Cuddyer can play center field if Denard Span went down.” Not only can he play three infield positions, he can play them well. Last year, he was decent at shortstop (4.7 UZR/150) and better yet at second (9.4 UZR/150). But the reality is that his opportunity in 2010 is at third where has done extremely well throughout his career (19.9 UZR/150) and this may be better suited as he has experienced shrinking range as he ages. In 2006 while playing third, Punto was the sixth best defender according to John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system (+16) and was eighth the following year (+10). Relocating him back to third would help solidify the defensive alignment around the diamond, particularly useful when groundball pitcher Nick Blackburn is on the mound.

So the mistreatment of Nick Punto is a bit unjust. Consider for a moment the term “Punto-esque”, a phrase used to describe futility at the plate in the Upper Midwest. It has slipped into the Twins fans’ lexicon as seamlessly as “Munson” or “Mendoza line.” This, of course, is perpetuated by casual fans that have latched onto some of the visual events that Punto symbolizes (i.e., making an out at third in the ALDS, sliding into first, pathetic batting averages, tendencies to sleep with your sister, etc). A look beyond the standard numbers reveals that he is a player that is able to provide more to the team than meets the eye. He demonstrates with his plate discipline, his baserunning skills and his versatile defense. He’s proven to be exceptional in other areas of the game that, if not make up for, at the very least compensates for his deficiencies at the plate. Perhaps we should re-assess our traditional beliefs of the composition of a ballplayer and begin to realize that we can use Punto-esque to describe an underappreciated player who finds other ways to contribute to a division-winning team.

Around the Central (02.09.10)

Rummaging through the news and notes from the Twins interdivision rivals so you don’t have to:

Chicago White Sox

ESPNChicago’s Bruce Levine notes that the White Sox are in the market for another situational left-handed reliever. Levine speculates that Chicago could potentially target Toronto’s Scott Downs in a trade.

• ANALYSIS: With Matt Thornton and Randy Williams as the two left-handed options on the 40-man roster, the White Sox’s bullpen would be better served by upgrading from Williams, particularly in context to the Twins’ left-handed heavy lineup. Downs, who will be 34-years-old in March, has disassembled same-sided opponents well. In his career, he’s struck out 22% of all lefties and limited them to a .651 OPS. What’s more is that he’s due $4 million in 2010 and will be a free agent after the season so the Blue Jays should be motivated to move him.  Still, other than Justin Morneau (1-for-11, 2 Ks), Minnesota’s heart-of-the-order left-handed constituency has recorded success off of Downs as  Jim Thome (4-for-13, HR, 2B) and Joe Mauer (5-for-10, 2B) have hit the southpaw well. 

MLB.com’s White Sox beat writer, Scott Merkin, believes that the Sox are not interested in bringing back outfielder Jermaine Dye no matter what his price drops to.

• ANALYSIS: While some (surprisingly) National League teams appeared interested in his services, Dye still lingers on the market with pitchers and catchers reporting in a little less than a week.  With age and fielding limitations restricting him to designated hitter duty, Dye’s future is cloudy. His nasty second-half numbers (.179/.293/.297 in 246 plate appearances) might have signaled that he is no longer able to remain productive for an entire 162-game stretch.  As a role player like former teammate Jim Thome’s position with the Twins, Dye could be a very solid contributor. He smacked around left-handed pitching well in 2009 (.292/.387/.508 with 14 extra base hits in 150 plate appearances) and had a muted batted ball average, posting a BABIP of .269, one of his lowest of his career. A team that implements a platoon effectively should wind up with a decent bargain in Dye.

Cleveland Indians

Prior to signing with the Twins, the Indians were aggressively pursuing Orlando Hudson. According to MLB.com’s Indians beat writer, Anthony Castrovince, the cash-strapped organization offered Hudson a two-year, $10 million dollar deal that was heavily backloaded in a 2012 buy-out.

• ANALYSIS: It was an interesting competitor for Hudson’s services. The Indians had spent 2009 shedding payroll, trading the likes of Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Carl Pavano, Ryan Garko and Mark DeRosa to offset the ledger that was hemorrhaging money and refill the farm system. Mark Shapiro and company probably noted the undervalued Hudson available at a bargain buy and concocted a plan to use him for half of the season then flip him for prospects at the deadline. Castrovince said that the Hudson offer had very little financial commitment to 2010 so the bulk of the investment would have been pushed on to another organization. For a team in rebuilt mode like the Indians are, this would have been a good play.

Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes is not convinced that Aaron Laffey will be a member of the Indians’ wide-open starting rotation in 2010.

• ANALYSIS: This really isn’t a surprise but Laffey at one time was a top-flight prospect in the Indians system.  Kind of the Glen Perkins of the Cleveland organization. The left-handed Laffey was able to induce groundballs at an insane rate (62%) while developing in the minors and posting acceptable strikeout rates. This certainly hasn’t translated at the major league level and in each passing year, Laffey loses a little bit of his wormburning and K abilities. Additionally, Laffey, who has never been mistaken for a strikeout artist, walked over four batters per nine innings and saw a good amount of those grounders slip past the infield defense (.262 GBBA) in ’09. He’s still just 25 in 2010 and if he can find control of the strike zone, he could be a capable rotation component.

The Indians head into spring training with hefty competition in left field, including Michael Brantley, Trevor Crowe, Jordan Brown, Austin Kearns and Shelley Duncan.

• ANALYSIS: One of the dividends of the CC Sabathia trade with Milwaukee, Brantley received an early introduction to the majors when Grady Sizemore when down in September. His initial foray into the bigs was a reaffirming one as the 22-year-old hit .313 with an on-base percentage of .358. Those numbers are a tad on the unsustainable side as his average was floated by an inflated .376 BABIP. Still, the kid rarely strikes out, draws walks and has some great speed on the bases so he could be a great addition to the top of the lineup. Kearns is a solid corner outfield defender so he could be used to bring some value to a left field position in which the Indians were the fifth worst in baseball according to the Plus/Minus system.

 

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers locked in Justin Verlander to a five-year, $80 million extension that will keep him in Detroit through his age-31 season.

• ANALYSIS:  Whoa boy. This is going to be one of those careers to monitor. True, Verlander’s essentially has been healthy as horse – only two minor blips pop up on the fantasy pitchf/x DL tool since 2005 – but the team has put a lot of mileage on his arm. Last season, Verlander led all of baseball in Pitcher Abuse Points (219,899 PAP!!!!). This was 125,287 points higher than the runner-up in Tim Lincecum. In 11 of his 35 starts, Verlander threw over 120 pitches, maxing out at 129 and averaging a baseball-high of 112 pitches per start. Five years feels like the perfect length for a pitcher like that but don’t be surprised if some of these high totals result in various arm injuries in the duration of his Motown contract.

The Tigers are still interested in bringing in Johnny Damon, says MLB.com’s Tigers beat writer, Jason Beck.

• ANALYSIS:  After losing one of baseball’s best two-spot hitters in Placido Polanco this offseason (as well as leadoff hitter in Curtis Granderson), acquiring Johnny Damon might be the best counterpunch Detroit can make. Transitioning from Yankee Stadium where the left-handed hitting Damon launched 17 of his 24 home runs to Comerica’s distant outfield fences will certainly zap the majority of his pop, but Damon will still manage to coax walks and caused problems for the opposing team on the bases (12-for-12 in stolen base attempts in ‘09). The question is whether he can field in the more expansive ballpark.    

The Detroit Free Press’s George Sipple relays that Jeremy Bonderman, who is recovering from shoulder surgery, is throwing well down in Florida.

• ANALYSIS:  Right now, the Tigers believe Bonderman, 27-years-old, can be their rotation’s number four starter. If he can go back to his pre-2007 form, he’d be a heck of an addition.  That said, he’s throwing his fastball at 90-mph, down from 93.3 in ’06. Likewise, after getting hitters to miss on 55.2% on all out-of-zone swings that season, hitters have made an abundance of contact, missing on just 36.4% this past season in limited duty. His slider has taken a substantial hit (from 2.34 wSL/C in ‘06 to -10.27 wSL/C in ’09) which may have a lot to do with his diminished velocity on the pitch – dropping from 85.4 mph to 82.0 this season. With an entire offseason of rest on his shoulder, Bonderman is young enough to bounce back but his injury list is extensive and daunting.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have signed Rick Ankiel to a one-year deal (and a mutual option for 2011) and have stated that he will be the team’s starting centerfielder in 2010 says the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger.

• ANALYSIS: In landing Ankiel, the Royals have swapped Mike Jacobs's all-or-nothing power, low-OBP at-bats for Ankiel's similar plate skill set. Ankiel, however, can play a serviceable outfield but is a miscast in center. He's got the arm but his range is deficient. Nevertheless, his acquisition moves Jose Guillen off of the field and into the designated hitter's role thereby improving the defense in that respect.

Royals manager Trey Hillman made some comments regarding his 2010 alignment now that Chris Getz and Josh Fields are in the mix. According to MLB.com's Royals beat writer, Dick Kaegel, Hillman wants Getz at second but will consider him at short if Mike Aviles is not ready this spring. The Royals skipper also wants Fields at third but will get some looks in left field as well.

• ANALYSIS: Since the trade, it's been interesting to see how Hillman will line these players up. The second base incumbent, Alberto Callaspo, hit .300/.356/.457 as the Royals' second best hitter behind Billy Butler. As a line drive hitter who makes regular line drive contact, Callaspo is capable of repeating these numbers (absent the slugging percentage). Defensively, in his first full season at second, he posted a UZR/150 of -7.5. Getz was slightly better in Chicago in the field (-6.7) but is not as skilled offensively as Callaspo. Fields meanwhile has struggled at the major league level to make regular contact, connecting on just 71% of his swings. In the field, he has failed to live up to his namesake committing eight errors in just over 400 innings at third in '09. With Alex Gordon firmly entrenched at third, Fields will get spot starts all over the diamond from third to left to DH which should not help with his flaky contact rate. 

Hudson acquisition addresses Twins' biggest need.

In 1996 the Minnesota Twins scored a massive 877 runs. Today, this still represents the high-water mark for the ballclub’s offensive flood and only the 1936 Washington Senators scored more in the franchise history with 889 (and they did so in an impressive 153 games). That year’s Twins lineup boasted some of the game’s finest on-base machines: Leading off was Chuck Knoblauch’s .448 OBP, fifth best in the AL. Batting third was future Hall of Famer Paul Molitor who exercised a healthy .390 OBP. At cleanup was the sophomore Marty Cordova - fresh off a Rookie of the Year season - procuring a .371 OBP and had yet to be sidelined by a vicious tanning booth injury. Bridging the top of the order in Knoblauch to the heart of the order in Molitor and Cordova was the 24-year-old Rich Becker and his robust .372 OBP.

 

Part of the reason the franchise’s lone offensive juggernaut is frequently forgotten is that the pitching and defense allowed a stunning 900 runs, the most in the team’s history since relocating to the prairie, and finished a distant 4^th, 21.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians. Nevertheless, this 1996 club holds the blueprints to one of the game’s offensive truths: Get production from your two-spot, score a ton of runs.

 

I expanded on this subject matter at length in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook*:  

 

In 1986, Bill James constructed a poignant analysis on lineup composition and revealed that the total runs scored and second spot in the batting order had the strongest correlation among any player in the lineup -- more than leadoff, third or cleanup.  Mr. James noted in his 1986 Baseball Abstract that “many managers tend to waste the second spot in the order by putting somebody there who isn’t one of the better hitters on the team...Too many managers will say ‘bat control’ as if these words were a magic wand, and place some .260 hitter with a secondary average of .150 batting second…”

 

What Mr. James was trying to convey was that a sizable portion of baseball managers were submitting lineups that 1) had an excellent on-base oriented leadoff hitter, followed by a guy that 2) would slap the ball the other way or lay down a bunt thereby advancing the runner but surrendering an out, followed by 3) the team’s best hitter. Conceding the out was not advantageous for an offense. His solution to create an optimal lineup, one would want to enlist as many hitters in a row that avoid making outs – regardless of the out’s so-called productivity.

 

Since Becker’s 1996 campaign, the Twins have not had significant production from the two-spot. In fact that season’s team was the last one to have an OBP above .350 in the two-spot. This has been partial due to personnel and partial due to managerial decisions to implement a contact-heavy, sacrificing mentality.

 

Later on in the same article, I noted:

 

“Fast forward to 2008 - 22 years later – where Twins manager Ron Gardenhire unwaveringly presented a lineup card that embraced Weaver’s logic and opposed the method Mr. James’s research recommended. His use of Alexi Casilla that season reflected the long instituted Weaverian belief that a two-hitter should be an avid bunter as Casilla was the only AL representative among the top ten with 13 sac hits. What’s more, Casilla was the only nonpitcher

(aside from the light-hitting Wily Tavaras) to be on that list as well. This should speak volumes towards A) the belief in Casilla as a hitter and B) the capricious handling of precious outs by management...

{snip}

…This past season, however, the levy finally broke completely. The average batting line from the number two spot in the American League was .277/.337/.430 (767 OPS). In other words, the average number-two hitter was creating outs 66.2 percent of the time. The Twins meanwhile, hit .262/.306/.394, getting out in a whopping 69.4 percent of their plate appearances.”

 

That 69 percent of plate appearance by the number two hitter that resulted in outs was the third highest in the AL. Only the lowly Royals and Mariners recorded more outs from their lineup’s second spot. This lack of production was glossed over because the lineup scored runs in bunches based on the presence of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. While this was a good thing, I implored the Twins to consider how many runs they were passing on neglecting to improve the two-spot, making it an essential Offseason To-Do List item.

 

 “The makeup of a two-hitter can be debated, but a strong contributor’s worth cannot be wholly ignored. There is no telling how many runs were lost or potential rally’s shortened because of poor at-bats by the team’s two-hitters. Had the Twins in 2009 employed a similar hitter to that of Boston (Pedroia), New York (Damon) or Texas (Young), there may have been more opportunities for the middle of the order to drive in more runs. Therefore, in 2010, the organization should attempt to acquire an adequate candidate that can perform duties of a high-caliber number-two hitter. As it stands, that person needs to come from outside the organization.”

 

That person did indeed come from outside of the organization. As of Thursday night, now with the one-year, $5 million contract to second baseman Orlando Hudson, the Twins can cross that gaping need off of their agenda.

 

As outline in length here on Wednesday, Hudson has numerous appealing qualities that the organization called for. While holding a career .348 OBP, in the last three seasons Hudson has greatly improved on this mark, posting a .366 OBP while walking in 10.1% of his plate appearances since 2007. Although I do not foresee Hudson’s OBP reaching quite the same level as it did in the offensive-friendly NL West upon transitioning back into the AL, he’s extremely capable of owning the highest OBP out of the Twins’ two-spot since Rich Becker. Inserting Hudson’s potential of an OBP of .350 or above behind lead-off hitter Denard Span (.390 career OBP) and in front of Mauer (.408 career OBP) and Morneau (.350 career OBP) will give the Twins a chain that will avoid needless outs and should commence pumping out runs ad nauseam.

 

*You haven’t purchased the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook yet?! It’s only $7.95 right now! Go! Go do it now.