The Thome Paradox

Reports emerged first from a Chicago radio station then later confirmed by Joe Christensen that the Twins were indeed considering bringing in the mammoth slugger, Jim Thome. According to the Star Tribune reporter, a Twins official reiterated that the team has “real interest” in the 39-year-old and “haven’t ruled out their chances of signing him.”  This recent development has sent Twins fans agog for the first time since the news about Jarrod Washburn broke.

 

Thome’s role in the overall puzzle isn’t exactly defined. MLB.com’s Twins beat writer Kelly Thesier later tweeted that the expectation would be to limit Thome to 200-300 plate appearances. In a follow-up article on the Twins website, Thesier noted that, as it stands, the organization will enter the 2010 season with a backup catcher, a 5th outfielder (possibly Jason Pridie), an additional infielder (likely Matt Tolbert) and one additional vacancy of which Thome would fill.

 

In an ideal world, Thome would become the Twins equivalent of Cliff Floyd for the Rays in 2008. Two years ago, the Rays had a very young roster and decided they needed an injection of expertise to be a leader in the clubhouse and be able to fulfill designated hitter duties against right-handed pitching. Bringing in the often-injured Floyd, and they gave the 35 year old 284 plate appearances, the bulk of which was against righties (272), and he responded by hitting .268/.353/.466 with 11 home runs that year. Overall, he supplied Tampa Bay with 0.6 WAR for $2.8M contract. Thome, in comparison, has been much better against right-handed pitching then Floyd. In ’09 at 38 years old, Thome hit .262/.383/.498 with 18 home runs in 329 plate appearances in those favorable match-ups. If able to produce a similar line for the Twins, it could easily give the team a 1.0 WAR role player.

 

If the Twins do bring in Jim Thome, there are some inalienable truths that need to be accepted.

 

In the twilight of his career, Thome has witnessed numerous other skills erode. First it was his defense. This was not exactly a surprise as the lumbering lug would have had to improve during his prime years to even be deemed adequate. The Indians tethered him to first base in the late 1990’s, hiding his defensive shortcomings, where he stayed until 2006. Since being signed by the White Sox, Thome has been on the field with his pitcher for all of 28 innings. So he could play first in an emergency just like a skateboard could get you across country if necessary, but god, why? He’s a designated hitter or pinch hitter. Period. End-o-story. Essentially, what this means is that the Twins now have TWO left-handed designated hitters in Jason Kubel and Jim Thome. If Ron Gardenhire wants both of them in the lineup against a right-handed starting pitcher, Kubel becomes an outfielder at the expense of either Delmon Young* or Michael Cuddyer. Simply put, Kubel  is a slightly worse defensive outfielder than either Young or Cuddyer. The Twins already had the second worst defensive outfield in baseball last year. More playing time for Kubel means an incrementally worse defensive outfield next season. Did with not learn anything from Detroit or Seattle? Upgrade, not downgrade, your defense.

 

*Were we not led to believe the underlying message sent when trading Carlos Gomez that Delmon Young would see more time and thus find a groove at the plate that he was unable to because his playing time was so chaotic? Now the Twins are considering once again removing him from the lineup two or three times a week? Am I on crazy pills?

 

In the same vein, if there is an inverse for terminal velocity, Thome’s reached that. He’s so slow that the laws of physics will not allow him to go any slower. According to the billjamesonline.net “skills assessment” section, Thome is in the 11^th percentile for running. This isn’t surprising considering each one of his legs weighs the equivalent of a dead sun. There has been a pattern that shows his ability to motor around the bases is becoming difficult without the assistance of a segway. In ’07 he netted -7 bases. The following year, it was -11. On the bases this past season, his net gain was -15. Likewise, his speed score, a statistic developed by Bill James, is at a new career low of 1.0 (Adam Dunn’s 0.8 was ’09 worst while Michael Bourn led baseball at 8.6). So once he does get on base, the odds that he will circle the set entirely without the assistance of a long ball are slim (he scored just 19 times without the help of a home run in ‘09). While his on-base percentage has remained outstanding as he still has the capability of drawing walks, however once on base the Twins will be forced to decide if they need to use a pinch runner or suffer the slow-moving consequences.

 

Nobody is suggesting that Thome still can’t hit for power - after all he's strong like bull and has been well-above average every year in that department since 1993. Even so, there are developing indications that while flirting with 40-years-old, the power is primed to decrease. His slugging and isolated power numbers have dropped considerable since 2006. As you can see, with the exception of his injury-riddled 2005 season, Thome’s isolated power has started its grand descent, potentially ripe to drop from the "Good" area to the league-average line:

Furthermore, with all this aging comes a reduction in bat speed. Signs that Thome’s swing is starting to slow down can be seen at hittrackeronline.com by referencing his home run distribution maps. According to his home run chart, Thome pulled just four of his 23 home runs to right, hit seven to center while 12 went to left field (47% to right/center):

 

This is a stark discrepancy from 2008 when 24 of his 34 home runs were to right and center (70% right/center):

Overall, bringing in a Jim Thome who is a one-trick pony limits the team’s versatility. The need of a pinch runner on the roster is a necessary. And, as shown above in his power, there are questions regarding how much the trick pony has left. The Athletics rekindled Frank Thomas’s career in 2006 in his age-38 season which allowed him to parley that into a two-year deal with Toronto. However, as Thomas slipped into his age-40 season, his skills ebbed beyond the point of being serviceable. I highlight this because Thome happens to be the third most similar player to Thomas as well as entering his age-40 season. Players of a certain age regress hard.

Certainly he could be a useful piece. Keep in mind that “useful” and “right piece” are two entirely different things. What would be a better fit is targeting a right-handed hitter, one who can supply defense in some capacity, to give the team more flexibility instead of limitation. If the Twins’ investment is small ($4 million or less) and the expectations are low (Cliff Floyd-like implementation) then acquiring Thome would be a useful piece to the puzzle.

Twins sign Harris for two years.

In the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, we went through the exercise of reviewing the previous year’s roster and supplying a grade based on their performance. Utility infielder Brendan Harris was labeled a “C”. In the corresponding write-up on Harris, I noted that:

 

“As bench-fillers go, Harris can play just about everywhere in the infield well, but not well enough to merit starting him. Whereas Punto and Casilla are quick-footed, slick fielders, Harris is downright stoic. But unlike the switch-hitting Punto and Casilla, Harris has been able to hit left-handed pitching (770 OPS) providing value when facing port-siders. Being arbitration eligible makes him in line for a raise over his $400K salary in ’09. Does his positional versatility and one-trick stick provide justification to bump up his allowance?”

Apparently, it does.

On Tuesday, the Twins and Brendan Harris agreed to a two-year, $3.2 contract with a series of performance bonuses that could drive his compensation every hire contingent on reaching 450 plate appearances. For a team that has considered looking at cost-saving measures, re-upping on Harris is a transaction that goes against that philosophy. This is an interesting decision that has positive and negative ramifications. Do the Twins have substantial plans for Harris extending into 2011 or was the additional year simply an impulse buy?

The total dollars itself isn’t in question. The $1.45M in ’10 and $1.75M in ’11 is not an unreasonable amount to dedicate to a bench player. Bench players are often integral parts to a championship team, and having that someone who can contribute just about everywhere when starters go down for extended periods of time helps bridge that gap. Having played in five different positions last year (short, second, third, first and DH), Harris represents just that sort of player – in theory.

For example, in May, Harris filled in at short for the injured Nick Punto and hit a robust .282/.326/.417 with 3 home runs in 178 plate appearances. Enjoying the rare offensive production from the middle infield, Ron Gardenhire slid Harris over to third after they acquired Orlando Cabrera. There, Harris’s defensive shortcomings were amplified at the less demanding of his previous two positions. In just over 300 innings at the hot corner, Harris committed six errors and failed to turn a single double play. On top of that, he hit .280 (14-for-50) in 60 plate appearances and was lifted in favor of the rookie Matt Tolbert in the season’s final stretch. By comparison, Tolbert provided the Twins with very stable defense, turning five double plays in his 190 innings at third and hit .313/.347/.448 in 76 plate appearances. In final 20 games, the manager called on Harris to start just once in the field (rather using him as a DH six times). Clearly, on the manager’s defensive hierarchy, Harris fell to the bottom.

Because of his versatility and the volatility of two of the infield positions, it was apparent that Harris would be retained by the front office that was looking at the larger picture heading into the 2010. I understand the Twins mindset: who’s at second, what’s at third and, holy crap, what if Hardy never resurfaces from his ’09 numbers? But what is so vital about Harris that it a price needs to be fixed for ’11?

Since the Twins acquired him in 2007, Harris has submitted below average offensive seasons. In a Twins uniform he’s hit .263/.319/.379 (86 OPS+) in slightly under 1,000 plate appearances. This has been marginally better than Nick Punto (81 OPS+) and Alexi Casilla (73 OPS+). If the Twins were looking for an offensive infield upgrade, Luke Hughes at Triple A Rochester hit .259/.344/.481 in 157 plate appearances. Giving the 25-year-old another season to mature and some September at-bats would allow for a low-cost infield bench player in 2011. Then again, Hughes is basically a third baseman by trade.

As mentioned above, Harris provides little in terms of a defensive upgrade.  On his career, both of his UZR and Fielding Bible metrics have been the illustration of a below average fielder. At 30 years old in 2011, that isn’t likely to spike either. There are several defensive option internally. Tolbert can play just about everywhere on the infield diamond above average and switch hits. Ditto for Casilla. Either player in a reserve role would give Ron Gardenhire solid options to replace more capable starters in the event of an injury. (That said, it assumes the fact that the Twins will keep Hardy, bring Valencia up midseason and find a higher quality second baseman. Maybe I’m assuming too much.)

Ultimately, signing Harris beyond 2010 could signal the beginning of the end of the Punto Era in Minnesota as Harris can fulfill most of his duties at a reduced price. To many, this is addition by subtraction. The Twins must have asked themselves if they would rather pay $1.75M for a poorer fielder, better hitter in Harris or fork over $5M for a better fielding, poorer hitting Punto. This is a low risk proposition, but it reveals that the Twins have little cohesiveness towards roster building between the field management and the front office. The organization could have look outside and inside for alternatives for several hundred thousand dollars cheaper.

Kouzmanoff to Oakland

During the Winter Meetings in December, reports emerged that the Twins attempted to extract the 28-year-old Kevin Kouzmanoff from the San Diego Padres by offering the organizationally ostracized lefty Glen Perkins.  On paper and in theory, sending a pitcher with major league experience that has a skill set that would play well in the spacious Petco Park in exchange for a player with tools best suited another stadium and on the verge of getting expensive for a bottom-dwelling club appeared like feasible transaction. That pipedream came to an abrupt conclusion on Friday as the Oakland Athletics sent outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham to San Diego for Kouzmanoff and prospect Eric Sogard.

 Kouzmanoff, who will be 28 years old in 2010, was far from an ideal piece for the Twins – a fact that I’ll touch upon later. Without question, Kouzmanoff represented an upgrade for the Twins in 2010 but would be dubious in the long-term, big picture. Admittedly, obtaining him for a disposable component like Perkins would have been a coup. Even though they were well publicized sellers with few potential buyers, San Diego had a higher sticker price in mind and would not cooperate with the Twins attempted robbery. Even though Oakland’s offer was far from a kingly sum, it was a significantly better package than Glen Perkins-for-Kouzmanoff and addressed a glaring need for the Padres.

To be sure, when Padres’ GM Jed Hoyer rebuffed Bill Smith’s original offering of Perkins, the Twins were realistically all but out of contention for Kouzmanoff. With an overabundance of major-league ready outfielders, the A’s had plenty of trading chips to move. This was an offseason requirement that San Diego had to address to help their young pitching staff. Both Hairston and Cunningham allow for Chase Headley to move from the outfield to the vacated third base opening where he is better suited. This alone upgrades their outfield coverage.

Hairston, traded from San Diego to Oakland midseason a year ago, was once viewed as a fast-moving prospect in the Diamondbacks’ organization. His tenure at the major league level has been punctuated by substandard plate discipline (career 6.8% walk rate) but with the capability of putting a charge into the ball (career .202 ISOP). Defensively, he’s an above average fielder in the corner outfield (although does not have the matching offensive qualifications to be an elite player) and is serviceable in center. Now entering his 30’s, the future for Hairston is muddled as his arbitration eligibility status will increase his salary over his reasonable $1.25 million from a year ago. Future cost notwithstanding, Hairston is a short-term but immediate solution to a nagging outfield problem in southern California.

Meanwhile Baseball Prospectus recently compared Cunningham to a right-handed hitting version of Travis Buck, which speaks volumes as is. Essentially, Cunningham is a fairly redundant player with Hairston only several years younger and minus the pop. Like Hairston, Cunningham projects to be an above average defensive corner outfielder (with a questionable arm) but does not come with the necessary prerequisite power supply. What was probably appealing to Hoyer was that he has a quality that neither Hairston nor the majority of the Padres have:  the ability to get on base. In his minor league career, Cunningham posted a .382 on-base percentage. This is a tad misleading however. Even though this is a fantastic rate, this number was mostly attributed to an exaggeratedly high batting average on balls in play rather than via walks (a rather average 8.7% walk rate).

Is the Twins farm system equipped with better offerings than the package Oakland sent? Without a doubt. Do any of them come shrink wrapped and ready for major league playing time? No. With the exception of pitching, the Twins do not have a surplus of any players able to contribute at the big league level immediately. And, again, pitching was not San Diego’s biggest need. With Kevin Correia, Chris Young, Clayton Richards, Mat Latos, Wade LaBlanc and Sean Gallagher, the Padres had more than enough arms to feel stable for several seasons. How appealing can a routinely injured pitcher with an abysmal strikeout rate be? Certainly not enticing enough to swap for a third baseman of Kouzmanoff’s pedigree.

What’s more is that at 28-years-old Kouzmanoff is a what-you-see-is-what-you-get finished product. He’s got the potential of producing some hefty numbers outside of the suppressive Petco Park environment, yet his development ceiling has been reached. He doesn’t walk (career 4.9% walk rate, .308 OBP) and swings at everything. In ’09, Kouzmanoff offered at 52% of the total pitches seen, well-above the baseball average of 45%. This component of his game makes him less attractive inserted into the Twins lineup, more so when you consider that he is an infield version of Delmon Young. Furthermore, now that he’s reaching arbitration years, he’s poised to see an escalating salary. To the Twins who has someone like Danny Valencia near-ready for big league play, investing in a player whose skills are marginally better than the in-house candidate but exponentially more expensive would be a waste of resources (both financially and prospect-wise). Minnesota does not need more power; it needs better on-base presence (preferably a player with both).

Although there is little indication that the Twins are prepared to do so, acquiring a second baseman that can fit into the number two spot in the lineup with a sustainable on-base percentage is a much more pressing need. After all, as John Bonnes relayed this week, Baseball America’s John Manuel described the Twins’ infield as their biggest Achilles’ heel, no more so than at second. Passing on Kouzmanoff should give the Twins ample opportunity to deal with the larger need through free agency. 

All You Need to Know About Glen Perkins

You could ski down this shit. 

Twins Minor League Skills Assessment: Walk Rate

Top BB% Gainers	BB | 08	PA | 08	BB% | 08	BB| 09	PA| 09	BB%| 09	Improve. %
DeSanMiguel, Allan	29	241	12.0%	39	207	18.8%	6.8%
Benson, Joe	24	290	8.3%	48	334	14.4%	6.1%
Portes, Juan	29	506	5.7%	34	370	9.2%	3.5%
Ortiz, Yancarlos	27	390	6.9%	38	384	9.9%	3.0%
Lis, Erik	27	437	6.2%	45	519	8.7%	2.5%

*Min. 200 plate appearances.

(5.) Erik Lis | 1B/DH | AA New Britain

The 25-year-old Lis’s second stint in the Eastern League was incrementally better than his original tour in ’08. Two seasons ago the left-handed hitting Illinois native managed to coax just 27 walks in 437 plate appearances while striking out in 21.3% of the time. Overall, Lis hit .271/.318/.462 with 50 extra base hits. This past year, Lis’s on-base percentage jumped to .353 after working 18 additional walks in just 82 more plate appearances. Another factor in the increased on-base percentage: Lis’s hit-by-pitch totals jump from zero in ’08 to eight in ’09.

(4.) Yancarlos Ortiz | SS | AA New Britain

The 24-year-old switch-hitting shortstop from the Dominican saw his walk rate jump from 6.9% to 9.9% after transferring from High-A Ft Myers to AA New Britain. That was about the only positive. Ortiz’s OBP in ’09 was a paltry .307. While he showed a steady improvement in the walks department, Ortiz was still striking out in north of 20% of his total plate appearances and holding a .282 batting average on balls in play. So far in his minor league career, he’s hit .242/.314/.280. A slight improvement in his walk totals is not enough to propel his career forward.

(3.) Juan Portes | UTL | AA New Britain

In his first exposure to High-A ball in ‘07, then 21-year-old Portes hit .269/.336/.410 with 31 extra base hits in 552 plate appearances.  The following season, his zone acumen declined as his walk rate dropped from 8.1% to 5.7% resulting in his on-base percentage decreasing from .336 to .319. However, in the season’s final 12 games Portes hit safely in 11 of them, going 17-for-48 and raised his average from .260 to .270 with the last minute offensive splash. At the time, Portes noted that he was experiencing some mechanical problems – notably moving his hands and feet too much. Pushed up into the Eastern League, Portes was used in a utility capacity (playing right field, left field and third) because of a lingering hamstring injury at the onset of the season as well as an overabundance of infielders. The 23-year-old continued to hit, finishing the year with a .297/.366/.434 batting line. Just as importantly, Portes pushed his walk rate back up towards 10%.

(2.) Joe Benson | OF | HA Fort Myers

When you think of the Twins’ abundance of outfielders, Joe Benson’s name is usually drowned out by the Aaron Hicks and the Ben Reveres of the system. In July of ’08 a stress fracture in his back (not unlike what Justin Morneau went through in ’09) sidetracked Benson’s development. This past year, Benson enjoyed one of the best offensive seasons of his career, hitting .285/.414/.403 in 80 games. Part of his on-base success is due to a highly inflated .380 batting average on balls in play, but you cannot ignore his 14.4% walk rate. If he’s able to remain healthy and continue to improve on that discipline, Benson gives the Twins another solid right-handed hitting outfield prospect.

(1.) Allan De San Miguel | C | HA-AAA

The Australian catching prospect has been languishing in the Twins system since ’05 yet was only 21-years-old last season. De San Miguel, a defensive specialist, was placed in the Eastern League to start the season but hit just .190 in limited duty and was eventually sent back to Beloit in early May. When Jose Morales was recalled to the Twins, de San Miguel was moved from Ft Myers all the way to Rochester to back up Drew Butera before being sent back down to Florida. By July, the Aussie catcher back in New Britain. The one offensive trait he has mastered is being able to draw a walk. If he can provide good defense and continue to get on base at a near 40% clip, he’ll enjoy a decent minor league career.