Friday, January 22, 2010

Twins sign Harris for two years.

In the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, we went through the exercise of reviewing the previous year’s roster and supplying a grade based on their performance. Utility infielder Brendan Harris was labeled a “C”. In the corresponding write-up on Harris, I noted that:
 

“As bench-fillers go, Harris can play just about everywhere in the infield well, but not well enough to merit starting him. Whereas Punto and Casilla are quick-footed, slick fielders, Harris is downright stoic. But unlike the switch-hitting Punto and Casilla, Harris has been able to hit left-handed pitching (770 OPS) providing value when facing port-siders. Being arbitration eligible makes him in line for a raise over his $400K salary in ’09. Does his positional versatility and one-trick stick provide justification to bump up his allowance?”

Apparently, it does.

On Tuesday, the Twins and Brendan Harris agreed to a two-year, $3.2 contract with a series of performance bonuses that could drive his compensation every hire contingent on reaching 450 plate appearances. For a team that has considered looking at cost-saving measures, re-upping on Harris is a transaction that goes against that philosophy. This is an interesting decision that has positive and negative ramifications. Do the Twins have substantial plans for Harris extending into 2011 or was the additional year simply an impulse buy?

The total dollars itself isn’t in question. The $1.45M in ’10 and $1.75M in ’11 is not an unreasonable amount to dedicate to a bench player. Bench players are often integral parts to a championship team, and having that someone who can contribute just about everywhere when starters go down for extended periods of time helps bridge that gap. Having played in five different positions last year (short, second, third, first and DH), Harris represents just that sort of player – in theory.

For example, in May, Harris filled in at short for the injured Nick Punto and hit a robust .282/.326/.417 with 3 home runs in 178 plate appearances. Enjoying the rare offensive production from the middle infield, Ron Gardenhire slid Harris over to third after they acquired Orlando Cabrera. There, Harris’s defensive shortcomings were amplified at the less demanding of his previous two positions. In just over 300 innings at the hot corner, Harris committed six errors and failed to turn a single double play. On top of that, he hit .280 (14-for-50) in 60 plate appearances and was lifted in favor of the rookie Matt Tolbert in the season’s final stretch. By comparison, Tolbert provided the Twins with very stable defense, turning five double plays in his 190 innings at third and hit .313/.347/.448 in 76 plate appearances. In final 20 games, the manager called on Harris to start just once in the field (rather using him as a DH six times). Clearly, on the manager’s defensive hierarchy, Harris fell to the bottom.

Because of his versatility and the volatility of two of the infield positions, it was apparent that Harris would be retained by the front office that was looking at the larger picture heading into the 2010. I understand the Twins mindset: who’s at second, what’s at third and, holy crap, what if Hardy never resurfaces from his ’09 numbers? But what is so vital about Harris that it a price needs to be fixed for ’11?

Since the Twins acquired him in 2007, Harris has submitted below average offensive seasons. In a Twins uniform he’s hit .263/.319/.379 (86 OPS+) in slightly under 1,000 plate appearances. This has been marginally better than Nick Punto (81 OPS+) and Alexi Casilla (73 OPS+). If the Twins were looking for an offensive infield upgrade, Luke Hughes at Triple A Rochester hit .259/.344/.481 in 157 plate appearances. Giving the 25-year-old another season to mature and some September at-bats would allow for a low-cost infield bench player in 2011. Then again, Hughes is basically a third baseman by trade.

As mentioned above, Harris provides little in terms of a defensive upgrade.  On his career, both of his UZR and Fielding Bible metrics have been the illustration of a below average fielder. At 30 years old in 2011, that isn’t likely to spike either. There are several defensive option internally. Tolbert can play just about everywhere on the infield diamond above average and switch hits. Ditto for Casilla. Either player in a reserve role would give Ron Gardenhire solid options to replace more capable starters in the event of an injury. (That said, it assumes the fact that the Twins will keep Hardy, bring Valencia up midseason and find a higher quality second baseman. Maybe I’m assuming too much.)

Ultimately, signing Harris beyond 2010 could signal the beginning of the end of the Punto Era in Minnesota as Harris can fulfill most of his duties at a reduced price. To many, this is addition by subtraction. The Twins must have asked themselves if they would rather pay $1.75M for a poorer fielder, better hitter in Harris or fork over $5M for a better fielding, poorer hitting Punto. This is a low risk proposition, but it reveals that the Twins have little cohesiveness towards roster building between the field management and the front office. The organization could have look outside and inside for alternatives for several hundred thousand dollars cheaper.


Saturday, January 16, 2010

Kouzmanoff to Oakland

During the Winter Meetings in December, reports emerged that the Twins attempted to extract the 28-year-old Kevin Kouzmanoff from the San Diego Padres by offering the organizationally ostracized lefty Glen Perkins.  On paper and in theory, sending a pitcher with major league experience that has a skill set that would play well in the spacious Petco Park in exchange for a player with tools best suited another stadium and on the verge of getting expensive for a bottom-dwelling club appeared like feasible transaction. That pipedream came to an abrupt conclusion on Friday as the Oakland Athletics sent outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham to San Diego for Kouzmanoff and prospect Eric Sogard.

 Kouzmanoff, who will be 28 years old in 2010, was far from an ideal piece for the Twins – a fact that I’ll touch upon later. Without question, Kouzmanoff represented an upgrade for the Twins in 2010 but would be dubious in the long-term, big picture. Admittedly, obtaining him for a disposable component like Perkins would have been a coup. Even though they were well publicized sellers with few potential buyers, San Diego had a higher sticker price in mind and would not cooperate with the Twins attempted robbery. Even though Oakland’s offer was far from a kingly sum, it was a significantly better package than Glen Perkins-for-Kouzmanoff and addressed a glaring need for the Padres.

To be sure, when Padres’ GM Jed Hoyer rebuffed Bill Smith’s original offering of Perkins, the Twins were realistically all but out of contention for Kouzmanoff. With an overabundance of major-league ready outfielders, the A’s had plenty of trading chips to move. This was an offseason requirement that San Diego had to address to help their young pitching staff. Both Hairston and Cunningham allow for Chase Headley to move from the outfield to the vacated third base opening where he is better suited. This alone upgrades their outfield coverage.

Hairston, traded from San Diego to Oakland midseason a year ago, was once viewed as a fast-moving prospect in the Diamondbacks’ organization. His tenure at the major league level has been punctuated by substandard plate discipline (career 6.8% walk rate) but with the capability of putting a charge into the ball (career .202 ISOP). Defensively, he’s an above average fielder in the corner outfield (although does not have the matching offensive qualifications to be an elite player) and is serviceable in center. Now entering his 30’s, the future for Hairston is muddled as his arbitration eligibility status will increase his salary over his reasonable $1.25 million from a year ago. Future cost notwithstanding, Hairston is a short-term but immediate solution to a nagging outfield problem in southern California.

Meanwhile Baseball Prospectus recently compared Cunningham to a right-handed hitting version of Travis Buck, which speaks volumes as is. Essentially, Cunningham is a fairly redundant player with Hairston only several years younger and minus the pop. Like Hairston, Cunningham projects to be an above average defensive corner outfielder (with a questionable arm) but does not come with the necessary prerequisite power supply. What was probably appealing to Hoyer was that he has a quality that neither Hairston nor the majority of the Padres have:  the ability to get on base. In his minor league career, Cunningham posted a .382 on-base percentage. This is a tad misleading however. Even though this is a fantastic rate, this number was mostly attributed to an exaggeratedly high batting average on balls in play rather than via walks (a rather average 8.7% walk rate).

Is the Twins farm system equipped with better offerings than the package Oakland sent? Without a doubt. Do any of them come shrink wrapped and ready for major league playing time? No. With the exception of pitching, the Twins do not have a surplus of any players able to contribute at the big league level immediately. And, again, pitching was not San Diego’s biggest need. With Kevin Correia, Chris Young, Clayton Richards, Mat Latos, Wade LaBlanc and Sean Gallagher, the Padres had more than enough arms to feel stable for several seasons. How appealing can a routinely injured pitcher with an abysmal strikeout rate be? Certainly not enticing enough to swap for a third baseman of Kouzmanoff’s pedigree.

What’s more is that at 28-years-old Kouzmanoff is a what-you-see-is-what-you-get finished product. He’s got the potential of producing some hefty numbers outside of the suppressive Petco Park environment, yet his development ceiling has been reached. He doesn’t walk (career 4.9% walk rate, .308 OBP) and swings at everything. In ’09, Kouzmanoff offered at 52% of the total pitches seen, well-above the baseball average of 45%. This component of his game makes him less attractive inserted into the Twins lineup, more so when you consider that he is an infield version of Delmon Young. Furthermore, now that he’s reaching arbitration years, he’s poised to see an escalating salary. To the Twins who has someone like Danny Valencia near-ready for big league play, investing in a player whose skills are marginally better than the in-house candidate but exponentially more expensive would be a waste of resources (both financially and prospect-wise). Minnesota does not need more power; it needs better on-base presence (preferably a player with both).

Although there is little indication that the Twins are prepared to do so, acquiring a second baseman that can fit into the number two spot in the lineup with a sustainable on-base percentage is a much more pressing need. After all, as John Bonnes relayed this week, Baseball America’s John Manuel described the Twins’ infield as their biggest Achilles’ heel, no more so than at second. Passing on Kouzmanoff should give the Twins ample opportunity to deal with the larger need through free agency. 


Friday, January 15, 2010

All You Need to Know About Glen Perkins

You could ski down this shit

Glen Perkins `K/9` : Season Stats Graph



Thursday, January 14, 2010

Twins Minor League Skills Assessment: Walk Rate

Top BB% Gainers

BB | 08

PA | 08

BB% | 08

BB| 09

PA| 09

BB%| 09

Improve. %

DeSanMiguel, Allan

29

241

12.0%

39

207

18.8%

6.8%

Benson, Joe

24

290

8.3%

48

334

14.4%

6.1%

Portes, Juan

29

506

5.7%

34

370

9.2%

3.5%

Ortiz, Yancarlos

27

390

6.9%

38

384

9.9%

3.0%

Lis, Erik

27

437

6.2%

45

519

8.7%

2.5%

*Min. 200 plate appearances.

(5.) Erik Lis | 1B/DH | AA New Britain

The 25-year-old Lis’s second stint in the Eastern League was incrementally better than his original tour in ’08. Two seasons ago the left-handed hitting Illinois native managed to coax just 27 walks in 437 plate appearances while striking out in 21.3% of the time. Overall, Lis hit .271/.318/.462 with 50 extra base hits. This past year, Lis’s on-base percentage jumped to .353 after working 18 additional walks in just 82 more plate appearances. Another factor in the increased on-base percentage: Lis’s hit-by-pitch totals jump from zero in ’08 to eight in ’09.

(4.) Yancarlos Ortiz | SS | AA New Britain

The 24-year-old switch-hitting shortstop from the Dominican saw his walk rate jump from 6.9% to 9.9% after transferring from High-A Ft Myers to AA New Britain. That was about the only positive. Ortiz’s OBP in ’09 was a paltry .307. While he showed a steady improvement in the walks department, Ortiz was still striking out in north of 20% of his total plate appearances and holding a .282 batting average on balls in play. So far in his minor league career, he’s hit .242/.314/.280. A slight improvement in his walk totals is not enough to propel his career forward.

(3.) Juan Portes | UTL | AA New Britain

In his first exposure to High-A ball in ‘07, then 21-year-old Portes hit .269/.336/.410 with 31 extra base hits in 552 plate appearances.  The following season, his zone acumen declined as his walk rate dropped from 8.1% to 5.7% resulting in his on-base percentage decreasing from .336 to .319. However, in the season’s final 12 games Portes hit safely in 11 of them, going 17-for-48 and raised his average from .260 to .270 with the last minute offensive splash. At the time, Portes noted that he was experiencing some mechanical problems – notably moving his hands and feet too much. Pushed up into the Eastern League, Portes was used in a utility capacity (playing right field, left field and third) because of a lingering hamstring injury at the onset of the season as well as an overabundance of infielders. The 23-year-old continued to hit, finishing the year with a .297/.366/.434 batting line. Just as importantly, Portes pushed his walk rate back up towards 10%.

(2.) Joe Benson | OF | HA Fort Myers

When you think of the Twins’ abundance of outfielders, Joe Benson’s name is usually drowned out by the Aaron Hicks and the Ben Reveres of the system. In July of ’08 a stress fracture in his back (not unlike what Justin Morneau went through in ’09) sidetracked Benson’s development. This past year, Benson enjoyed one of the best offensive seasons of his career, hitting .285/.414/.403 in 80 games. Part of his on-base success is due to a highly inflated .380 batting average on balls in play, but you cannot ignore his 14.4% walk rate. If he’s able to remain healthy and continue to improve on that discipline, Benson gives the Twins another solid right-handed hitting outfield prospect.

(1.) Allan De San Miguel | C | HA-AAA

The Australian catching prospect has been languishing in the Twins system since ’05 yet was only 21-years-old last season. De San Miguel, a defensive specialist, was placed in the Eastern League to start the season but hit just .190 in limited duty and was eventually sent back to Beloit in early May. When Jose Morales was recalled to the Twins, de San Miguel was moved from Ft Myers all the way to Rochester to back up Drew Butera before being sent back down to Florida. By July, the Aussie catcher back in New Britain. The one offensive trait he has mastered is being able to draw a walk. If he can provide good defense and continue to get on base at a near 40% clip, he’ll enjoy a decent minor league career. 


Friday, January 08, 2010

Friday Flotsam (01.08.10)


Jim Souhan reminds us how much we need to resign Joe Mauer. Wrote the Star Tribune columnist on Friday "He is the rare catcher who can dominate with his arm, bat and eye. While there are plenty of first basemen and outfielders who make an offensive impact on the game, Mauer gives the Twins an unparalleled advantage because of the position he plays." This is quite the about-face from the scribe's sentiments on the local catcher as recently as 2007. Back in September of that year, Souhan opined and advocated for Mauer's relocation to third writing "It would be easier and cheaper to find a catcher to share time with Redmond than to sign an everyday third baseman, and Redmond is hitting and producing runs about as well as Mauer this year, anyway."

Speaking of Redmond, MLB.com's San Diego Padres beat writer, Cory Brock, notes that the Padres are interested in bringing in the elderly backstop. Over the past three seasons, Redmond has watched his offensive skill deteriorate at a breakneck rate. This past season, his three pulled hits, a new career low, was a strong indication that his swing as atrophied greatly. If you are looking for a silverlining, you can say he take "professional" at-bats, as he rarely strikes out and has moved runners along the base paths. But at 39-years-old it is clear he is extremely unlikely to provide anything except 40 games of offensive disappointment playing in reprieve of the starting catcher.

San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser says that the A's may have interest in bring back shortstop Orlando Cabrera - only to be considered for the third base vacancy. Oakland's 2009 offense averaged just 4.69 runs per game, a below average amount. Re-acquiring Cabrera would seemingly exacerbate the issues, not resolve it. Especially if it is in a third base capacity. In 101 games with Oakland last year, Cabrera hit .280/.318/.365, which was well below the league's third base average line of .269/.338/.423.

After the Twins released Bobby Keppel, winning pitcher of Game 163, the Nippon Ham Fighters signed him to play in Japan. Keppel's replacement is right-hander Clay Condrey who was released by the Phillies in December

Twins MLB.com beat writer, Kelly Thesier, announced from her Twitter account that the Twins will be inviting 14 non-roster invitees to spring training including Ben Revere, Anthony Slama, Rene Tosoni and Chris Parmelee.

Star Tribune's La Velle E Neal uncovered the truth behind the Jarrod Washburn rumors. According to his sources inside the Twins organization, the Twins indeed offered the 35-year-old lefty a one-year, $5M contract that was turned down by his agent, Scott Boras. Neal continues by saying the Twins may attempt to follow through with their initial offer as the offseason wears on. Furthermore, the message relayed to Neal was that the Twins would be hesitant to sign any free agents to multi-year deals because of the impact Mauer's impending contact will have on future budgets.