Kouzmanoff to Oakland

During the Winter Meetings in December, reports emerged that the Twins attempted to extract the 28-year-old Kevin Kouzmanoff from the San Diego Padres by offering the organizationally ostracized lefty Glen Perkins.  On paper and in theory, sending a pitcher with major league experience that has a skill set that would play well in the spacious Petco Park in exchange for a player with tools best suited another stadium and on the verge of getting expensive for a bottom-dwelling club appeared like feasible transaction. That pipedream came to an abrupt conclusion on Friday as the Oakland Athletics sent outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham to San Diego for Kouzmanoff and prospect Eric Sogard.

 Kouzmanoff, who will be 28 years old in 2010, was far from an ideal piece for the Twins – a fact that I’ll touch upon later. Without question, Kouzmanoff represented an upgrade for the Twins in 2010 but would be dubious in the long-term, big picture. Admittedly, obtaining him for a disposable component like Perkins would have been a coup. Even though they were well publicized sellers with few potential buyers, San Diego had a higher sticker price in mind and would not cooperate with the Twins attempted robbery. Even though Oakland’s offer was far from a kingly sum, it was a significantly better package than Glen Perkins-for-Kouzmanoff and addressed a glaring need for the Padres.

To be sure, when Padres’ GM Jed Hoyer rebuffed Bill Smith’s original offering of Perkins, the Twins were realistically all but out of contention for Kouzmanoff. With an overabundance of major-league ready outfielders, the A’s had plenty of trading chips to move. This was an offseason requirement that San Diego had to address to help their young pitching staff. Both Hairston and Cunningham allow for Chase Headley to move from the outfield to the vacated third base opening where he is better suited. This alone upgrades their outfield coverage.

Hairston, traded from San Diego to Oakland midseason a year ago, was once viewed as a fast-moving prospect in the Diamondbacks’ organization. His tenure at the major league level has been punctuated by substandard plate discipline (career 6.8% walk rate) but with the capability of putting a charge into the ball (career .202 ISOP). Defensively, he’s an above average fielder in the corner outfield (although does not have the matching offensive qualifications to be an elite player) and is serviceable in center. Now entering his 30’s, the future for Hairston is muddled as his arbitration eligibility status will increase his salary over his reasonable $1.25 million from a year ago. Future cost notwithstanding, Hairston is a short-term but immediate solution to a nagging outfield problem in southern California.

Meanwhile Baseball Prospectus recently compared Cunningham to a right-handed hitting version of Travis Buck, which speaks volumes as is. Essentially, Cunningham is a fairly redundant player with Hairston only several years younger and minus the pop. Like Hairston, Cunningham projects to be an above average defensive corner outfielder (with a questionable arm) but does not come with the necessary prerequisite power supply. What was probably appealing to Hoyer was that he has a quality that neither Hairston nor the majority of the Padres have:  the ability to get on base. In his minor league career, Cunningham posted a .382 on-base percentage. This is a tad misleading however. Even though this is a fantastic rate, this number was mostly attributed to an exaggeratedly high batting average on balls in play rather than via walks (a rather average 8.7% walk rate).

Is the Twins farm system equipped with better offerings than the package Oakland sent? Without a doubt. Do any of them come shrink wrapped and ready for major league playing time? No. With the exception of pitching, the Twins do not have a surplus of any players able to contribute at the big league level immediately. And, again, pitching was not San Diego’s biggest need. With Kevin Correia, Chris Young, Clayton Richards, Mat Latos, Wade LaBlanc and Sean Gallagher, the Padres had more than enough arms to feel stable for several seasons. How appealing can a routinely injured pitcher with an abysmal strikeout rate be? Certainly not enticing enough to swap for a third baseman of Kouzmanoff’s pedigree.

What’s more is that at 28-years-old Kouzmanoff is a what-you-see-is-what-you-get finished product. He’s got the potential of producing some hefty numbers outside of the suppressive Petco Park environment, yet his development ceiling has been reached. He doesn’t walk (career 4.9% walk rate, .308 OBP) and swings at everything. In ’09, Kouzmanoff offered at 52% of the total pitches seen, well-above the baseball average of 45%. This component of his game makes him less attractive inserted into the Twins lineup, more so when you consider that he is an infield version of Delmon Young. Furthermore, now that he’s reaching arbitration years, he’s poised to see an escalating salary. To the Twins who has someone like Danny Valencia near-ready for big league play, investing in a player whose skills are marginally better than the in-house candidate but exponentially more expensive would be a waste of resources (both financially and prospect-wise). Minnesota does not need more power; it needs better on-base presence (preferably a player with both).

Although there is little indication that the Twins are prepared to do so, acquiring a second baseman that can fit into the number two spot in the lineup with a sustainable on-base percentage is a much more pressing need. After all, as John Bonnes relayed this week, Baseball America’s John Manuel described the Twins’ infield as their biggest Achilles’ heel, no more so than at second. Passing on Kouzmanoff should give the Twins ample opportunity to deal with the larger need through free agency. 

All You Need to Know About Glen Perkins

You could ski down this shit. 

Twins Minor League Skills Assessment: Walk Rate

Top BB% Gainers	BB | 08	PA | 08	BB% | 08	BB| 09	PA| 09	BB%| 09	Improve. %
DeSanMiguel, Allan	29	241	12.0%	39	207	18.8%	6.8%
Benson, Joe	24	290	8.3%	48	334	14.4%	6.1%
Portes, Juan	29	506	5.7%	34	370	9.2%	3.5%
Ortiz, Yancarlos	27	390	6.9%	38	384	9.9%	3.0%
Lis, Erik	27	437	6.2%	45	519	8.7%	2.5%

*Min. 200 plate appearances.

(5.) Erik Lis | 1B/DH | AA New Britain

The 25-year-old Lis’s second stint in the Eastern League was incrementally better than his original tour in ’08. Two seasons ago the left-handed hitting Illinois native managed to coax just 27 walks in 437 plate appearances while striking out in 21.3% of the time. Overall, Lis hit .271/.318/.462 with 50 extra base hits. This past year, Lis’s on-base percentage jumped to .353 after working 18 additional walks in just 82 more plate appearances. Another factor in the increased on-base percentage: Lis’s hit-by-pitch totals jump from zero in ’08 to eight in ’09.

(4.) Yancarlos Ortiz | SS | AA New Britain

The 24-year-old switch-hitting shortstop from the Dominican saw his walk rate jump from 6.9% to 9.9% after transferring from High-A Ft Myers to AA New Britain. That was about the only positive. Ortiz’s OBP in ’09 was a paltry .307. While he showed a steady improvement in the walks department, Ortiz was still striking out in north of 20% of his total plate appearances and holding a .282 batting average on balls in play. So far in his minor league career, he’s hit .242/.314/.280. A slight improvement in his walk totals is not enough to propel his career forward.

(3.) Juan Portes | UTL | AA New Britain

In his first exposure to High-A ball in ‘07, then 21-year-old Portes hit .269/.336/.410 with 31 extra base hits in 552 plate appearances.  The following season, his zone acumen declined as his walk rate dropped from 8.1% to 5.7% resulting in his on-base percentage decreasing from .336 to .319. However, in the season’s final 12 games Portes hit safely in 11 of them, going 17-for-48 and raised his average from .260 to .270 with the last minute offensive splash. At the time, Portes noted that he was experiencing some mechanical problems – notably moving his hands and feet too much. Pushed up into the Eastern League, Portes was used in a utility capacity (playing right field, left field and third) because of a lingering hamstring injury at the onset of the season as well as an overabundance of infielders. The 23-year-old continued to hit, finishing the year with a .297/.366/.434 batting line. Just as importantly, Portes pushed his walk rate back up towards 10%.

(2.) Joe Benson | OF | HA Fort Myers

When you think of the Twins’ abundance of outfielders, Joe Benson’s name is usually drowned out by the Aaron Hicks and the Ben Reveres of the system. In July of ’08 a stress fracture in his back (not unlike what Justin Morneau went through in ’09) sidetracked Benson’s development. This past year, Benson enjoyed one of the best offensive seasons of his career, hitting .285/.414/.403 in 80 games. Part of his on-base success is due to a highly inflated .380 batting average on balls in play, but you cannot ignore his 14.4% walk rate. If he’s able to remain healthy and continue to improve on that discipline, Benson gives the Twins another solid right-handed hitting outfield prospect.

(1.) Allan De San Miguel | C | HA-AAA

The Australian catching prospect has been languishing in the Twins system since ’05 yet was only 21-years-old last season. De San Miguel, a defensive specialist, was placed in the Eastern League to start the season but hit just .190 in limited duty and was eventually sent back to Beloit in early May. When Jose Morales was recalled to the Twins, de San Miguel was moved from Ft Myers all the way to Rochester to back up Drew Butera before being sent back down to Florida. By July, the Aussie catcher back in New Britain. The one offensive trait he has mastered is being able to draw a walk. If he can provide good defense and continue to get on base at a near 40% clip, he’ll enjoy a decent minor league career. 

Friday Flotsam (01.08.10)

Jim Souhan reminds us how much we need to resign Joe Mauer. Wrote the Star Tribune columnist on Friday "He is the rare catcher who can dominate with his arm, bat and eye. While there are plenty of first basemen and outfielders who make an offensive impact on the game, Mauer gives the Twins an unparalleled advantage because of the position he plays." This is quite the about-face from the scribe's sentiments on the local catcher as recently as 2007. Back in September of that year, Souhan opined and advocated for Mauer's relocation to third writing "It would be easier and cheaper to find a catcher to share time with Redmond than to sign an everyday third baseman, and Redmond is hitting and producing runs about as well as Mauer this year, anyway."

Speaking of Redmond, MLB.com's San Diego Padres beat writer, Cory Brock, notes that the Padres are interested in bringing in the elderly backstop. Over the past three seasons, Redmond has watched his offensive skill deteriorate at a breakneck rate. This past season, his three pulled hits, a new career low, was a strong indication that his swing as atrophied greatly. If you are looking for a silverlining, you can say he take "professional" at-bats, as he rarely strikes out and has moved runners along the base paths. But at 39-years-old it is clear he is extremely unlikely to provide anything except 40 games of offensive disappointment playing in reprieve of the starting catcher.

San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser says that the A's may have interest in bring back shortstop Orlando Cabrera - only to be considered for the third base vacancy. Oakland's 2009 offense averaged just 4.69 runs per game, a below average amount. Re-acquiring Cabrera would seemingly exacerbate the issues, not resolve it. Especially if it is in a third base capacity. In 101 games with Oakland last year, Cabrera hit .280/.318/.365, which was well below the league's third base average line of .269/.338/.423.

After the Twins released Bobby Keppel, winning pitcher of Game 163, the Nippon Ham Fighters signed him to play in Japan. Keppel's replacement is right-hander Clay Condrey who was released by the Phillies in December. 

Twins MLB.com beat writer, Kelly Thesier, announced from her Twitter account that the Twins will be inviting 14 non-roster invitees to spring training including Ben Revere, Anthony Slama, Rene Tosoni and Chris Parmelee.

Star Tribune's La Velle E Neal uncovered the truth behind the Jarrod Washburn rumors. According to his sources inside the Twins organization, the Twins indeed offered the 35-year-old lefty a one-year, $5M contract that was turned down by his agent, Scott Boras. Neal continues by saying the Twins may attempt to follow through with their initial offer as the offseason wears on. Furthermore, the message relayed to Neal was that the Twins would be hesitant to sign any free agents to multi-year deals because of the impact Mauer's impending contact will have on future budgets.

Around the Central (01.06.10)

News and notes from the Twins interdivision rivals:

Chicago White Sox

Newly acquired JJ Putz, fresh off of a year which was cut short due to bone chips in his pitching elbow, is elated by the makeup of the White Sox bullpen.  ''Obviously, we have a great closer in Bobby Jenks and a great left-handed set-up guy in Matt Thornton,'' Putz said, ''so I'm thinking going into it, I'll be a seventh-, eighth-inning guy with the right-handers and Matt with the left-handers, trying to hand the ball to Bobby as often as we can.''

· ANALYSIS: Putz is correct in assuming that the White Sox could, on paper, have one of the better combinations of set-up men and closer in baseball. But it is certainly a flawed trifecta.  Putz, signed to a one-year, $3M contract, has slowly seen his stuff become increasingly hittable since his ’06 year in which opponents but just 69.7% of his balls in play. Returning from surgery and 33 years old in 2010, the probability that he will return to his dominate ’06 or ’07 form appears unlikely. Bobby Jenks has been enigmatic the past several years, having his strikeout rate drop drastically in ’08 then surrendering 9 home runs in 53 innings, which appears to be a product of using his fastball more often than previous years.  His six blown saves in 35 opportunities opened the door for speculation that Jenks would be out of Chicago in ’10. Meanwhile, Thornton has been about the most reliable form of relief on the South Side. For the past two seasons, Thornton has struck out 164 in 139.2 innings pitched (a 10.6 K/9 ratio) while walking just 39 (a 2.5 BB/9 ratio) as opponents have hit just .207 off of him in 144 games.  If Jenks is unable to satisfactorily put away hitters in 2010, anticipate that Thornton, not Putz, gets the save opportunities.

In an otherwise minor transaction, Chicago claimed Tiger reliever Freddy Dolsi.

· ANALYSIS: Dolsi spent the majority of the ’09 season at AAA Toledo, the Tigers’ top affiliate. In 51.2 innings of relief, the 26-year-old Dolsi struck out 31 and walked 19 while maintaining a 4.74 RA.  MLB.com’s White Sox beat reporter, Scott Merkin, notes that Dolsi is one of a handful of candidates to replaced DJ Carrasco who was non-tendered by the Sox. He’s got a mid-90s fastball and complimenting 85-mph slider. In his brief experience in the majors dating back to 2008, Dolsi has allowed a ton of contact and shown erratic control (career 4.94 BB/9 rate).

The White Sox still don’t have any left-handed power bats. In 2009, Jim Thome gave Chicago 417 plate appearances from the wrong-handed batter’s box and slugged .493. After his departure at the waiver deadline, Guillen was hard-pressed to find the same-sided pop on the bench. AJ Pierzynski and his 13 HR and .425 slugging percentage were as close as it got.

· ANALYSIS:  The Sox have a limited payroll but this really isn’t a problem for Chicago. Considering the amount of players still remaining on the diluted market, it appears that the left-handed DH unemployment rate mimics that of the US economy in general at 10%. Tons of workers, few jobs. This pool of jobless left-handed DH includes but is not limited to: Hank Blalock, Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado, Eric Hinske, Aubrey Huff, Mike Jacobs, Jim Thome and Jack Cust.

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes gives his approval for the Tribe’s pursuit of free agent outfielder Jonny Gomes.

· ANALYSIS: Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro made his intentions on acquiring a right-handed power bat known at the GM meeting but since then has been quiet. Cleveland wants to give their new manager, Manny Acta, some lineup flexibility. Gomes outfield defense is atrocious so he is better suited for a designated hitter spot. His 20 home runs in 314 plate appearances demonstrated remarkable power (15.7 AB/HR). Of course, he was playing in a very hitter-friendly at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark which skews his totals. A prevalent fly ball hitter, his 22% HR/FB rate suggests that his totals will come down to reality in 2010 when his HR/FB rate regresses back towards his career average at 15%. This effect would happen much quicker if removed from the offensive generator (1.176 HR/G) in southern Ohio versus the northern Ohio stadium that muted the most home runs (0.670 HR/G).

In the same article, Hoynes outlines the Indians logic in why they signed Travis Hafner to a 4-year, $57 million extension in 2007. According to Hoynes “When Shapiro signed Hafner to a four-year, $57 million extension during the 2007 season, most of the fan reaction was positive. Hafner, 30 at the time, was putting together his fourth straight season in which he drove in at least 100 runs. The Indians, in researching Hafner's performance before signing him to the extension, realized his production would drop toward the end of the deal, but they did not anticipate it falling straight off a cliff so quickly. Injuries played a big role in that, but with the benefit of hindsight it's easy to assume Hafner's career is damaged beyond repair.”

 

· ANALYSIS: Travis Hafner may be a textbook example why you do not sign a one-dimensional player to far past the age of 30. Prior to signing his contract extension in ’07, his existing one would have lasted through his age-31 season. Instead, based upon his 2004-2006 performance in which he hit .308/.419/.611, outright superstar numbers, the Indians bumped him up a tax bracket and locked him in until his age-36 season.  Could he have maintained a torrid pace like his ’06 numbers for several more years? Sure, but the odds were very much against it. Of course, injuries expedited Hafner’s evitable decline as he has hit just .244/.336/.416 since signing his contract and averaged 308 plate appearances per season.  It’s unfortunately that you can’t unring that bell.

MLB.com’s Indians beat writer, Anthony Castrovince, writes that it is almost a foregone conclusion that Cleveland will be shopping their 33-year-old closer in Kerry Wood by midseason.

 

· ANALYSIS: Not a bad idea. After dominating the NL Central in his first stint as a closer, striking out 84 in 66.1 innings of work and saving 34 games, Wood signed a hefty two-year, $20 million contract to finish out games for the Indians.  The hard-throwing righty transitioned from a team that had the fourth highest total of save opportunities (68) to one that had the league’s second lowest (43). For whatever reason, Wood abandoned his effective slider and was worse for the wear.  He put up strong strikeout numbers but walked far too many and blew six of his 26 save opportunities, fourth highest in the league, and allowed seven home runs. The Indians did not have to pay top dollar for that kind of output. While Cleveland did not expect the team to be as bad as it was, the investment was like putting premium gasoline into a jalopy – it’s not worth the expense.  With $10 million due in 2010 and tight budget, Mark Shapiro will look to unload Wood if he can regain value in the first-half of the season.

In efforts to provide some right-handed options, the Indians signed Shelley Duncan and Austin Kearns to minor league deals with invitations to spring training.

· ANALYSIS: Again, without much maneuverability financially, Shapiro was forced to cull through the bargain bin. He may have found two steals though. After launching 7 home runs in 74 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2007, Duncan appeared to have the making of a serviceable platoon hitter.  Then he came out slow in 2008 and was shipped back to Scranton. He was recalled last September and utilized mainly as a pinch hitter in his 15 plate appearances. With 170 home runs in the minors, Duncan’s got power but he has yet to be given over 100 plate appearances in the majors to prove it. Kearns on the other hand, sped through the Reds system as a highly touted prospect and had a .407 OBP in 435 plate appearances his rookie year in 2002. Since then, his production has never matched the projections and has been on-and-off of the DL.  Unlike Duncan, Kearns plays an above-average right field (career 9.8 UZR/150) so if he can stay healthy, he can provide defense as well as being able to hit lefties. For a dime store price and no strings attached, the Indians acquired two potentially decent pieces.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers were targeting free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson, a favorite target of Twins fans, but was later refuted as just a rumor by MLB.com’s beat writer, Jason Beck.

· ANALYSIS:  After trading away Curtis Granderson under the premise of freeing up cash for the long-term, going out only to spend the $5.5 million owed to the fan favorite on a free agent second baseman did not quite add up. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski reiterated the club’s desire to use Scott Sizemore as the starting second baseman. Said Dombrowski We expect him to be our second baseman. We have not changed on Sizemore." The 25-year-old Sizemore lacks any major league experience but has hit .296/.383/.441 in nearly 1,700 plate appearances.  Without a doubt, Detroit will miss Polanco’s defense and presence in the lineup but Sizemore appears to be the future of the infield for the Tigers.

Tigers catcher Gerald Laird and his brother, Brandon Laird, who plays in the Yankees system, were arrested in Phoenix after an altercation at US Airways Arena. The two were cited for disorderly conduct for starting a brawl. According to reports, the security at the arena club was trying to arrest a suspect for disorderly conduct when the brothers assaulted the security guards and interfered. The situation was described by on-lookers as a “melee.”

· ANALYSIS:  Gotta love a good melee. Laird had a Gold Glove-caliber season behind the dish, throwing out a league-high 42 base runners and had one of the league’s best caught stealing percentages (42%).  Of course, with a high dosage of fastballs (65%) and baseball’s hardest throwing staff (92.7-mph) gives Laird a distinct advantage.

With Fernando Rodney signing with the Angels and Brandon Lyon with the Astros, the Tigers are inspecting the market for proven replacements. Jason Beck speculates that Detroit is considering Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg and Octavio Dotel as suitable candidates for the open position.

· ANALYSIS:  Of the three, Valverde represents the best option.  In the past three season in Houston and Arizona, the righty has struck out 217 in 190.1 innings (10.3 K/9) while walking just 70 (3.3 BB/9) and opponents have hit just .210 off of him. At TwinsCentric, we identified him as the best closer option on the market yet interest in Papa Grande has been surprisingly quiet – probably because as a Type A free agent, the signing team would have to forfeit a draft pick.  Detroit may be hesitant to sacrifice a draft pick after the sheer plundering of their farm system to get Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria. The Pirates and Orioles are two other organizations that are interested in acquiring Gregg or Dotel (who has not closed since 2007).

Kansas City Royals

The Royals signed two left-handed minor league relief pitchers in John Parrish and Nelson Payano.  Neither pitcher threw a pitch stateside in 2009. The 32-year-old Parrish has seen major league work in off-and-on since 2000 with the Orioles and Blue Jays but missed all of 2009 with a torn labrum. Payano, 26-years-old, has bounced from the Atlanta organization to Seattle in 2008 and was signed by the Chunichi Dragons in 2009 but spent a lot of time injured as well.

· ANALYSIS:  Well, instead of investing a ton of money at an overpriced left-handed reliever (cough, Ron Mahay, cough) the Royals are attempting to fill the void at a discounted rate.  So you have to admire the mentality, however, these might not be the right acquisitions. Parrish is a soft-tossing lefty who was barely hitting 88.3-mph in ’08 but couldn’t get anyone to miss on pitches out of the strike zone (which judging from his career 6.0 BB/9 rate, that’s where he’s locating it).  In his six minor league seasons, Payano has struck out 276 in 246 innings but like Parrish, Payano has had his command issues, walking 159 (a 5.8 BB/9 career rate).