Monday, January 04, 2010

Bert Belongs Voting List (Updated)

Yes

No

 Unknown

Bill Conlin (Phil Daily News)

Jon Heyman (Sports Illustrated) 

Bob Dutton (Kansas City Star)

Pat Caputo (Morning Sun)

Rick Telander (Chicago Sun) 

Bill Christine (LA Times)

 Mark Topkins (Tampa Times)

Danny Knobler (CBS Sports) 

Bob Sherwin (AP)

 Terry Pluto (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

 Bruce Jenkins (San Francisco Chronicle)

Nick Cafardo (Boston Globe)

Richard Griffin (Toronto Star)

Mike Dodd (USA Today) 

Mike Klis (Denver Post)

 Ken Davidoff (Newsday)

Tim Brown (Yahoo) 


 Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports)

Bob Smizik (Pittsburgh Post Gazette) 


 Scott Bordow (East Valley Tribune)

Dave van Dyke (Chicago Tribune) 


Tom Keegan (Lawrence Journal World)Jeff Blair (The Globe and Sun)
Philip Hersh (Chicago Tribune)Murray Chass (MurrayChass.com)
Bill Kennedy (Trenton Times)Buster Olney (ESPN)
Hal McCoy (Dayton Daily News)Michael Kinsley (ESPN)
Sean McClelland (Dayton Daily News)Pedro Gomez (ESPN)
Lynn Henning (Detroit News)Tony Jackson (ESPN)
Dan Coughlin (Cleveland Leader)Carrie Muskat (MLB.com)
Bill Madden (NY Daily News)Mark Newman (MLB.com)
Jeff Fletcher (AOL FanHouse)Marty Noble (MLB.com)
Fred Mitchell (Chicago Tribune)Paul Sullivan (Chicago Tribune)
Jeff Schultz (Atl Constitution)

Charley Walters (Pi Press)

Phil Arvia (Southtown News)

Carl Steward (Oakland Tribune)

Mark Gonzales (Chicago Tribune)

Teddy Greenstein (Chicago Tribune)

Gerry Brown (Mass Republican)

Tracy Ringolsby (FOX Sports)

Mel Antonen (USA Today)

Seth Livingstone (USA Today)

Bob Nightengale (USA Today)

Tom Pedulla (USA Today)

Barry Bloom (MLB.com)

Earl Bloom (OC Register)

Jim Caple (ESPN)

Bernie Miklasz (St Louis Post-Dispatch)

Jack Curry (NY Times)

Bob Klapisch (The Record)

Phil Rogers (Chicago Tribune)

Larry LaRue (Seattle News Tribune)

John McGrath (Seattle News Tribune)

Joe Henderson (Tampa Tribune)

Bruce Miles (Chicago Daily Herald)

Bob Sansevere (Pioneer Press)

Henry Schulman (SF Chronicle)

Mike Silverman (Boston Herald)

Larry Stone (Seattle Times)

Dan Graziano (Newark Star Ledger)

John Perrotto (Odgen Newspapers)

John Romero (St Petersburg Times)

Jerry Cransick (ESPN)

Jayson Stark (ESPN)

Hal Bodley (MLB.com)

Bob Markus (unknown)

Drew Olsen (OnMilwaukee.com) 

Tom Haudricourt (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Dan Shaughnessy (Boston Globe)

Stan McNeal (Sporting News)

Scott Miller (CBS Sports)

Joe Capozzi (Palm Beach Post)

Mike Shalin (At Large)

Evan Grant (Dallas News)

Joe Posnanski (SI)

Brendan Roberts (ESPN)

Gordon Edes (ESPN)

Howard Bryant (ESPN)

Tim Kurkjian (ESPN)

T.J. Quinn (ESPN)

Mike Bauman (MLB.com)

Peter Gammons (MLB.com)

Ken Gurnick (MLB.com)

Tom Singer (MLB.com)

Lyle Spencer (MLB.com)

Jim Street (MLB.com)

T.R. Sullivan (MLB.com)

Chris Haft (MLB.com)

LaVelle Neal (Star Tribune)

John Hickey (AOL FanHouse)

Terence Moore (AOL FanHouse)

Ed Price (AOL FanHouse)

Kevin Modesti (LA Daily News)

Mike Peticca (Cleveland Plain Dealer)




80185

On this small sampling of the 500+ BBWAA voters, 80 of the 102 (78.4%) admitted voters have casted their ballots in favor of Bert Blyleven. (Of course, if all six of the the voters that choose not to reveal their votes swing towards Blyleven, he'd be at 83.3%.) Keep in mind that this is just roughly 20% of the total voters and is very preliminary. 

By the way, John Heyman, Danny Knobler, Bruce Jenkins, Tim Brown, Murray Chass and Buster Olney all voted for Jack Morris but not Bert Blyleven.

Sunday, January 03, 2010

Blyleven's On-Going Vote Count, Ensuing Diatribe.

Yes

No

Bill Conlin (Phil Daily News)

Jon Heyman (Sports Illustrated) 

Pat Caputo (Morning Sun)

Rick Telander (Chicago Sun) 

 Mark Topkins (Tampa Times)

Danny Knobler (CBS Sports) 

 Terry Pluto (Cleveland Plain Dealer)

 Bruce Jenkins (San Francisco Chronicle)

Richard Griffin (Toronto Star)

 

 Ken Davidoff (Newsday)

 

 Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports)

 

 Scott Bordow (East Valley Tribune)

 

Tom Keegan (Lawrence Journal World)
Philip Hersh (Chicago Tribune)
Bill Kennedy (Trenton Times)
Hal McCoy (Dayton Daily News)
Sean McClelland (Dayton Daily News)
Lynn Henning (Detroit News)
Dan Coughlin (Cleveland Leader)
Bill Madden (NY Daily News)
Jeff Fletcher (AOL FanHouse)
Fred Mitchell (Chicago Tribune)
Jeff Schultz (Atl Constitution)
Charley Walters (Pi Press)
Phil Arvia (Southtown News)
Carl Steward (Oakland Tribune)
Mark Gonzales (Chicago Tribune)
Teddy Greenstein (Chicago Tribune)
Gerry Brown (Mass Republican)




 

 

There is no doubt that baseball’s Hall of Fame is imperfect. Instead of a warehouse of just the game’s top statistical hoarders, the Hall of Fame should be embraced as a time capsule, a collection of the game’s most influential characters for future generations to reflect upon for their greatness. Walking down the hall 100 years from now, every player preserved should not raise a shadow of a doubt as to why their plaque exists.

The Hall of Fame did not foster that idea when it created its system for voting. According to the official website “Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” This vagary has advanced some of the most tired annual arguments.

The Hall did not provide an accompanying handbook that outlines what is the standard for record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character or contributions to the team(s). More often than not, a player’s record (i.e. his stats) is the focal point when levying for election. For example, regular proposals for Hall-worthiness is based on the equation that Player X had numbers comparable to HOF Player Y and Z therefore Player X is a Hall of Famer. For better or worse, this is the accepted methodology to immortalize the game’s best. After all, you can easily make an argument for someone’s election based on their win/loss record; it is harder to do on the basis of their integrity or sportsmanship. When it comes to integrity or sportsmanship, it takes Gambling and steroids are a big no-no, racism and off-field incidents are negligible. While I believe Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire belong in the hall predicated on their cultural significance, electing them would be potentially viewed as baseball awarding performance-enhancement usage. Juiced or not, 100 years from now Bonds and McGwire should be remembered.

It is the numbers argument why Bert Blyleven’s Hall bid is in highly contested. Perhaps voters have taken “a player’s record” too literally in the past as Blyleven is the proud owner of .534 winning percentage (450th all-time). In their defense, none of his individual seasons can be quantified as “exceptional”. He was voted for Cy Young in just four of his 22 seasons (1973, 1984, 1985 and 1989), never finishing higher than third, and the league’s managers found him All Star worthy in just two seasons (1973 and 1985). He led the league in strikeouts once (206) and one twenty-games once (1973). Outside of that, everything else appears to be a product of a long, healthy career. During his era (from 1970 to 1992), Blyleven threw the most complete games (242), 23 more than Steve Carlton in that time. His strikeout total (3,701) was second only to Nolan Ryan yet his K/9 (6.7) was only 14th best, sandwiching him between Fernando Valenzuela and Ron Guidry. He surrendered the most hits among starting pitchers and had the 43rd lowest batting average (.248), strong indications that he was equal parts dirty and hittable. When all was said and done after 1992, it was obvious that the Dutchman had put up a mess of alternatively good and bad numbers between his 22 seasons.

On the big stage, Blyleven won pivotal postseason games for Minnesota and Pittsburg, going 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and a 36/8 K/BB ratio in 47.1 innings. His two victories against the Detroit Tigers helped propel the Twins to their first World Series victory.

Besides the hard-earned strikeout totals (fifth all-time, third when he retired) and post-season record, Blyleven excelled in one area: shutouts. Considering that his 60 shutouts are good enough for 9th all-time, the righty is in the middle of some legendary company. His ability to blank opponents over nine frames was outstanding. This was better than a lot of his compatriots already in the Hall including Don Sutton, Bob Gibson, Jim Palmer, Don Drysdale and so on. In fact, everybody in the top twenty are in the Hall of Fame with the exception of Blyleven. In addition to the unfathomable total, this appears to be a mark that will never be topped again. As it stands right now, the closest active pitcher to this total is Randy Johnson with 37. This is a fairly significant corroborating evidence of his dominance.

 

Some will argue that his entire candidacy is essentially founded on his strikeouts and shutouts because his resume does not have any awards or garner too much attention from peers in season to be included in the All Star game during his career (just twice). Opponents noted that Blyleven was one of the better pitcher’s in the game. Anecdotally, George Brett quipped that “The writers never had to face him. If they did, they’d vote for him. He was as good as there was for a long time. Bert is up there with the toughest four or five guys I faced in my career.” Naturally, the writers could face Livan Hernandez and probably be blown away but that’s neither here nor there. Over the course of 128 battles, Blyleven held the career-.305 Brett to a .231 average. Then again Eddie Murray might have a different opinion as the Orioles switch-hitter socked six home runs and batted .414 in 62 altercations.

Does Bert Belong? Based upon the current system, yes, he’s compiled a strong enough record to be included, particularly if Don Sutton and Gaylord Perry are already in. Blyleven’s election is a slippery slop. On one hand, some numbers have been good enough to get him elected. No question. Then again, if he is elected, numerous arguments for the inclusion of flawed pitchers that put up large totals in lengthy careers will cite Blyleven’s election as evidence that Mike Mussina or Jamie Moyer belongs too. Suddenly, the Hall of Fame is easier to get into than Saint Cloud State.

Truthfully, I don’t care enough about the Hall to get worked up if Blyleven is ignored once again. In fact, I would understand it. There is just as much logic to support voting against him as there is to elect him. To me, the more you have to talk yourself into voting for someone, the less likely it is that he should be placed in the hallowed halls in Cooperstown. On the other hand, if Blyleven is elected, the crowd would be quieted until they move on to the next player that they feel is slighted of this honor. 


Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Adieu 2009

For regular readers, you’ll notice that I rarely take the time to wax poetic about my personal life within the confines of this blog. My focus is on baseball analysis so baseball analysis is what you get. People don’t go into Applebee’s expecting to be propositioned for sex.  In fact, the majority of decent Americans would be put off by a scenario in which quest for a Fiesta Lime Chicken was interrupted by a lady or gentleman of the night. For the most part, I’ll keep this about happenings on the diamond and leave my first person perspective out of this. However, seeing as this is the year-end blog post, I thought I’d take a moment to thank everyone for coming by for a visit.

Another calendar year is almost in the books and the OtB site is still going fairly strong. In fact, this post represents the 290th one produced since the inception. I can say that I did not anticipate this side-project sustaining for as long as it has when I first picked it back up in 2007 after an initial failure-to-launch in 2006. The title of the blog alone should indicate that I was not thinking long-term which a new stadium was being erected just west of the downtown area.

That brings up a question I get on a semi-regular basis: Will the site still be Over the Baggy in 2010? At this juncture, I’m not sure. I like the name and I’ve mocked up a new logo/banner to adorn the top of the page that should start to distance the name from the Metrodome (it is from an old Metropolitan Stadium postcard actually) but I may wind up caving and reinventing the brand altogether.

I would like to take the opportunity to thank all of the readers that have stopped by on frequent or infrequent basis. I hope you derive as much enjoyment out of reading these postings as I have researching and creating them. I want to thank all of those that have supported the TwinsCentric projects – we (John, Nick, Seth and I) try to provide you with entertaining and thought-provoking material. For those that have not taken the opportunity to do so, please download the free sample of our latest offering to enjoy the remainder of this offseason.

As always, you can share your feelings or input with me via email (TwinsFanc1981 [AT] Gmail.com) or follow me on Twitter (@OverTheBaggy) for more Over the Baggy-goodness. I leave you and the year 2009 with a handful of items that should provide ample evidence that, on occasion, I know what the hell I am talking about and not just spewing nonsense. Enjoy and see you next year!


  • Nick Swisher’s 2009 rebound season.  When the White Sox flipped him to New York, the Chicago front office cited his lowly .219 batting average in 2008 as an excuse for why he needed to go.   What I saw was a guy that was stroking line drives (20 percent rate) and relatively consistent peripherals in conjunction with his career but had a suppressive batting average on balls put in play (.251 BABIP versus a .300 league average).   My exact prediction was to “[e]xpect that Swisher's 2009 season resembles 2007 rather than his 2008 numbers.” His .249 batting average notwithstanding, Swisher compiled a 2009 season that excelled past his 2007 – putting up a .375 wOBA in ’09 versus his .361 wOBA in his final year in Oakland. 
  • Paul Konerko’s turnaround.  In February I wrote that “Konerko is a very likely candidate to have a rebound season.  Last year, while battling a[n] early season hand-injury, Konerko had his worst season since 2003, hitting .240/.344/.438 with 22 home runs in 514 at-bats.  Konerko's numbers were thwarted by bad luck thanks to a suppressed .247 batting average on balls in play even as he hit line drives 21.5% of the time.  His average on those line drives in play was .583, well below the MLB average of .718.  If he continues to swing like he did in 2008, his numbers should revert back towards his career line of .277/.352/.491.”  This past season, the White Sox first baseman continued to hit line drives consistently (18.5%) but saw more of his line drives finding vacant areas of turf, resulting in a .768 batting average on those types of hits.  Konerko finished the year hitting .277/.353/.489 – coming within fractions of producing his then-career line.
  • Ty Wigginton’s 2009 decline. Wigginton’s name was used a lot after the ’08 season as a free agent candidate.  Undoubtedly, his .285/.350/.526 averages with 23 home runs certainly looked appealing when you remove the .343/.390/.691 average and 15 home runs at the bandbox of Minute Maid Park, you could foresee a drastic drop in production when removed from his hitter’s haven.  The Orioles – sigh, always the Orioles – signed him to a relatively light two-year, $6M contract but allowed the situational-at-best player to accumulate 100 starts and watched as his numbers plummeted back to earth, finishing ’09 with a .273/.314/.400 line with 11 home runs.  Context means everything.
  • That whole “Hinske would have been much better than signing Kubel” ballyhoo thing.  Citing stats from Dave Cameron’s Fangraph.com where he first questioned the Twins for extending Kubel, Hinske had a fairly good season and provided yeoman-like work for a one-year, $1.5M contact, producing a .344 wOBA in 190 plate appearances split between Pittsburgh and the Yankees.  At 31-years-old, the likelihood that Hinske could or would replicate his ’08 season was a gamble. Into his 30s, one expects signs of decline.  Meanwhile, Kubel’s meteoric rise in 2009 was not just a thing of beauty, procuring a .383 wOBA as an everyday designated hitter, but as a player moving into his prime playing years he stood a better-than-average chance that he would not only meet his ’08 numbers, he would exceed them. In the end, Hinske’s season was worth about 0.8 WAR (wins above replacement) while Kubel’s provided the Twins with 2.9 WAR. 
  • Accurately predicted Albert Pujols’ MVP (gimmee) and was close on Mark Teixeira (if it weren’t for a meddling catcher named Mauer). Admittedly, Pujols was not a risky selection, and neither is Teixeira, but I do like to point out that I nearly hit Teixeira’s home run total on the nose: “Considering it will be 318 to those right field seats at the new Yankee Stadium, Teixeira has the capabilities to hand out some souvenirs to some very happy Bronx visitors, maybe reaching the 40-home run plateau.” Teixeira finished the season with 39 home runs of which, 24 were hit at the new Yankee Stadium.
  • Zack Grienke’s breakout. In April I said “It’s hard to classify a guy who went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA not already “out” but Greinke will take further steps forward to prove that he is among the top pitchers in the game today.  With David Dejesus and Coco Crisp both in the outfield and a stronger offensive lineup, Greinke’s will witness his winning percentage rise in 2009.” Okay, it wasn’t that I expected this level of dominance but reviewing his pitch data prior to the 2009 season I felt that Grienke would piece it together. He did. (In full disclosure, my selection for the NL’s breakout player of the year in the same article was JJ Hardy. Whoopsie-doodle.)
  • Identifying opposing pitchers’ obsession with throwing Joe Mauer fastballs (and his subsequent destruction of said pitches). I outlined this diddy back in early June and at the time I noticed that Mauer’s fastball distribution of 67% was closer to the amount slap-hitting infielders like Placido Polanco and Luis Castillo received while power hitters like Albert Pujols and Kevin Youkilis were seeing fastballs only 55% of the time. At the end of the season, Fangraphs.com’s Dave Allen came to the same conclusion in a very similarly titled article in October. Could 2010 come with more breaking balls?
  • Detailing the Carl Pavano acquisition. There was plenty of backlash among the fan base suggesting that the Twins cheapskated their way past the trade deadline, grabbing a pitcher with a 5.37 ERA. Rebuffing this sentiment, I pointed to xFIP (among other stats) to present the case that Pavano is actually a better pitcher than perceived: “For teams that evaluates players with advanced statistics (Boston, Tampa and Seattle come to mind), it would be hard to ignore that his xFIP of 4.16 – a stat that normalizes the home run rate along with the infusion of strikeout and walk rates – which was TENTH best in the AL among qualified starters. Better than Sabathia. Better than Buerhle, Shields, Washburn, Burnett. Et cetera. Et Cetera. He was pitching better than all of those staff aces. One xFIP point worse than Lee – one point! – and it took the Phillies four of their top ten prospects to nab Lee from the Indians.” Pavano was better than advertised and instead of shipping a stockpile of prospects to the Indians for 12 starts as the Phillies did for Lee, the Twins traded one decent prospect for a pitcher that produced identical peripheral numbers.
  • A video scouting breakdown of Deolis Guerra’s improved mechanics. Through the use of youtube.com loaded videos (and several hours of staring at the computer monitor), I highlighted the physical changes the Twins prospect had made in his motion which correlated with his newfound success. In brief, Guerra was curling too much in his upper-half in 2008 which inevitably led to his control issues. I really enjoyed this feature and as new videos become available and I get better as using the GIMP program that isolates those clips, I will hopefully be adding more scouting breakdowns to OtB in 2010.


Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The Evolution of Delmon Young

On July 31, Delmon Young was hitting a heart-stoppingly bad .264/.291/.346 in 220 plate appearances.  Up to that point, the left fielder had managed to hit just three home runs and adding on seven more extra base hits while striking out in 28.1 percent of the time. In 24 team games in July, Ron Gardenhire wrote his name on the lineup card just eight times, essentially donning a scarlet “4” announcing himself as the team’s extra outfielder.
It was only logically that Young would be shelved.  At that point in time, everything about the 24-year-old seemed broken.  Not including his terrible defense, Young’s offensive contributions were just horrible in every sense of the word.  He was the baseball equivalent of a Creed album – all-around garbage.  Aside from his 62-to-7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio which provided evidence he was still unfamiliar with the strike zone, his hits came in the form of seeing-eye singles that scooted between infielders.  He was pulling 50 percent of balls in play onto the left-side of the field but with little authority, knocking an obscenely 80 percent of those into the ground.

Was the 6-foot-3 corner outfielder really hitting like a diminutive utility infielder?  Did the Twins really inherit a slap-hitting, scorched-earth producing former number one overall draft pick incapable of providing power?  It was like buying a sports car only to find out it handled like a minivan.

However, as the calendar flipped to August, something started to click.  Slowly, Young had his playing time increased and was given a full-time opportunity again when Justin Morneau went out for the season with his back injury.

From the first of that month to the conclusion of the season, Young was a different hitter in the batter’s box.  No, the plate discipline did not improve - he still couldn’t buy a walk in Chinatown – but suddenly the ball left his bat with a bit more zest.  It no longer trickled off of the lumber towards third base all yippy-skippy.  It charged off the grain on a mission.  He slugged over .700 when pulling the ball after hitting a ho-hum .444 on pitches he yanked prior to that.  In his final 192 plate appearances, Young launched nine home runs (swatting 20 more extra base hits) while hitting .305/.327/.513.
After less than half of his balls in play were airborne (fly ball and line drive combined), he elevated 66 percent of balls in play post-August.  This was a good thing for a power hitter.  After all, balls that hit the turf have the damnedest time resulting in a home run.  

Unfortunately, the season came to a halt as it is wont to do in the winter, keeping us from finding out how sustainable Young’s performance was. With almost zero abilities to get on base besides anything other than a hit, Young’s future performance will always be questioned.  Furthermore, a level of skepticism will remain regarding his second-half output based up his nearly identical second-half output from 2008.  Late last season Young hit .285/.337/.425 with six home runs in 206 plate appearances re-energizing his supporters that the best is yet to come…only to follow that up with a let-down in the first-half of ’09.

This past October, LaVelle E Neal and Phil Mackey discussed on KFAN the impending off-season for the Twins.  Mackey shook off Young’s output as a “mirage”, stating that the aforementioned lack of plate discipline will eventually be the equalizer for him. LaValle, on the other hand, mentioned that the Twins were impressed by the way Delmon had gotten rid of his "giant leg kick".
A bit of video research shows that, indeed, Young had muted his leg kick as the season progressed:
 

(source: twinsbaseball.com)  

 
From left to right are clips from 2008, May 2009 and then October 2009.  Young has long been known as someone who has troubles accepting guidance.  The Twins have tried to get him to make adjustments but he has been credited as resistant to implementing them.  Here, in a 12-month span, you can see how radical Young’s changes have been.
 
In the first clip from a year ago, he’s a chaotic mess.  His timing, hands, leg kick, everything, is out of whack. The first thing that jumps out is his pre-swing movement.  His stride shifts all of his lower weight towards third base well in advance of his upper body.  Because his lower-half is committed first, his top-half was forced to play catch-up.  On top of that, his hands drop almost to letter-high which retards the swings’ progress even more.  This means he was hitting with mostly arms – damning evidence why he was pounding more balls into the grass and winding up hitting to the opposite field as much as he did. 
 
The second clip, from May of this year, shows a much different Delmon Young.  His stance is straight-forward and his hands are dropped to shoulder height.  From the point he lifts his front foot, there is less shifting.  The stance gives him a balance while the bat keeps him from dropping his hands down when loading for the swing.  Young is also keeping his hands closer to his body in this swing – keeping inside the baseball.  While he’s advancing he’s not put together the entire package: he’s got a hitch in his stride that throws everything out of whack.
 
The final clip is the one from his hot streak.  Everything is fluid. Besides that, notice where his hands are with the bat – up almost above his head.  His front elbow is now more perpendicular to the ground whereas in the previous two clips, he was pointing the elbow downward. 
 
This biggest difference, as LaVelle noted, is the leg kick. Here is an isolation of the three: 
 
(source: twinsbaseball.com) 
 

Carefully examine Young's front leg and the ensuing strides.  Notice how more balance and smooth his motion is on the right as opposed to the Elaine Benes-type dance move on the left.

 

In the frame on the far left (2008), Young's open-stance is reminiscent of that of Frank Thomas.  His front foot is almost behind his body with a deep bend. Last season, Young struggled mightily to elevate the ball - hitting just 44.9 percent of his total balls in play in the air. Part of the reason is because of his elongated stride towards the ball. After lifting his leg, his first movement is towards the right side of the field and then it loops back towards the pitcher before he plants on the left side of the field. This circular motion is wasted energy that actually zaps power from the lower extremities as he pulled open long before contact.

 

In the middle clip (May 2009), Young has altered his stance to a more balanced alignment with a whisper of an open stance. Although this is progress, getting his hips to stay closed for a fraction of a second longer, he's added a bit of a hitch as he turns his knee inwards (back at the catcher) before twisting it back at the field. It may seem like a minor flaw, it does slow the entire process down enough to where the kinetic chain does not generate the same power.

 

The clip on the far right (October 2009) Young has adopted a slightly closed stance but is essentially balanced similar to his approach in May. Unlike the two predecessors, Young simply picks up the front foot, shifting towards the mound and then rotates the hips through the hitting zone almost simultaneously with his hands.

 

****

There is no question that Young was driving the ball better in the season's final three months and it is attributed to him making much needed, albeit delayed, adjustments.  The concern now is if he can maintain this approach throughout a long off-season without slipping into swings from the past that feel more comfortable.  Considering that making solid contact is his only source of value, this makes him a fairly one dimensional offensive threat.  In addition to carrying over his new-found mechanics into 2010, Young needs to tone down his overzealous plate approach and remember to take a few pitches.  Last season, his 59.3 percent swing rate was the third-highest among those with a minimum of 380 plate appearances. His 2.9 percent walk rate was the fourth-lowest among the same total.  Decreasing the former and increasing the latter will ensure sustained production from the left fielder.
 

Friday, December 18, 2009

Could the Twins actually be serious about Aroldis Chapman?

This past Tuesday, the Twins sent representation down to Houston to observe Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban defector with 100-mph touching-fastball, showcasing his skills in a bullpen session in front of 15 teams.
 
By most accounts, Chapman’s stuff was legit. According to ESPN.com’s Jorge Arangure (subscription re’q) the 21-year-old was in the 92-94-mph range with his fastball although he touched 97-mph in what described as “effortless” and had added muscle to his otherwise lanky frame (he’s listed as 6’ 4”, 185-pounds) while having tightened his mechanics.
 
His velocity from the left-side is significant. During the World Baseball Classic, Chapman was averaging 96-mph with his fastball but was able to deliver several pitches near the 100-mph milestone (one topped out at 102-mph). If he were able to maintain this consistency throughout a season, his 96-mph mark would not only put him as one of the league’s hardest throwers, but one of the rare left-handed hurlers that breaks 94-mph - only CC Sabathia throws that hard regularly.
 
Of course, velocity does not equal success.  Just ask Daniel Cabrera.  In his 6.1 innings in the WBC, Chapman struck out 8 but added four runners through walks. In November, Alex Eisenberg at Baseball-Intellect.com analyzed his mechanics and noted that “Chapman has to coordinate a lot of moving parts” which often translates into control issues when a few of those parts jump off track. That’s why the latter part of Arangure’s report regarding the tightening of his mechanics is important.  If he has indeed taken measures to improve his mechanical flaws, Chapman may have shaved development time off and closed the gap to when he will be considered major league-ready.
 
At the same time, the session was not that encompassing where conclusions on his talent could be drawn.  John Stockstill, the Orioles’ director of international scouting, said that It was not really set up for evaluations. They wanted to let everybody see that he's healthy. He threw a light bullpen. Now they're setting things up so every club has an opportunity to meet with him starting today and going for the next two or three days."
 
To be sure, the level of aggression the Twins are pursuing Chapman is still unknown.  Joe Christensen tweeted yesterday that former Twin Tony Oliva had “raved” about Chapman. Christensen said that Oliva’s brother is a coach in the top professional league in Cuba and had been feeding Oliva the scouting reports. With Oliva still very much active in the Twins (enough so that he gets stuck in the Metrodome’s executive washrooms), it is assumed that he is attempting to influence the scouting staff that Chapman is worth the investment.
 
In addition to Oliva’s persuasion, the Twins have been attacking the international market this past year with tenacity.  Miguel Sano, viewed as one if not the top international prospect last summer, was acquired when most analysts discounted the Twins as potential suitors.  This was a well-orchestrated acquisition ten years in the making.  This past fall, general manager Bill Smith sat down with TwinsCentric and said in an interview which you can find in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook (now $7.95 for a PDF) that “[W]e have tried to become more aggressive internationally. It has been a ten-year initiative. There’s a lot you have to build up. You have to build up your staff. You have to get your staff ready to be making evaluations. We have worked very hard to get more aggressive internationally.”
 
Naturally, when asked if this required more money, something the Twins have valued above all in the past, Smith answered “If we can find them cheap, we’ll find them cheap, but we want to get good players on the international market.”
 
Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein tweeted on Wednesday that one executive told him that Chapman is looking at potentially a $30 million dollar contract while the Peter Abraham at the Boston Globe speculated that it would take $15 million (roughly what the Red Sox had offered) to secure Chapman’s services. Depending on the length of contract, this might not be an unreasonable amount of money to spend. Considering the amount it takes to sign a free agent that is has exited his peak age years (post-30), signing a phenom who is still several years away from his prime years is a good business decision for a budget-conscious organization.  Investing in Chapman for the Twins, makes sense from both a talent acquisition standpoint and a financial position.  If the evaluators believe Chapman can be a number one starter, his addition to a 2010 or 2011 rotation gives Minnesota a top, young pitcher that could be better than any of the aging arms that would appear on the free market – in spite of what is perceived as a high cost.