The Igniter.

When Michael Cuddyer shot John Danks’ first offering of the sixth inning over the right-center field wall in Chicago -- lifting Minnesota to a 6-to-2 lead -- the home run was the 12^th of such leadoff bombs for the Twins right fielder.  Just two innings earlier, the righty had tagged the White Sox’s southpaw for a double past the diving Scott Podsednik in center to open that inning, only to score moments later on Brendan Harris’s double play ball to short. 

 

While his early season struggles with runners-in-scoring-position have been exhaustively debated, Cuddyer produced well as the first Twin to bat in an inning for the duration of the season.  In 135 leadoff plate appearances, Cuddyer is hitting .328/.378/.720 with 12 HRs, 11 2Bs and 1 3B by far one of the best hitters on the team under this situation.  In addition being on base in 38 percent of those plate appearances and driving himself in 12 times, he has come around to score in 16 other occasions.  Understandably, leading off an inning presents less of an opportunity for scrutiny then folding under an RBI-condition but beginning a scoring drive should be no less celebrated then eventually scoring the run itself. 

 

What do we make of this in understanding Cuddyer’s contributions?  For the better-half of the season, Cuddyer had floundered when faced with an RBI situation (although he has improved threefold since the beginning of the month) but managed to sustain a rather torrid output when there were no runners on base (.962 OPS).  What’s more is that he did even better starting an inning (1.098 OPS).  Are we to believe that Cuddy folds under pressure?

 

Baseball happens in a series of vacuum situations that we like to analyze, evaluate and segment.  We do so even with the foreknowledge that these events happen in such a tiny statistical bubble that it is nearly impossible to properly label the results as anything other than a sample-size fluke.  For instance, Delmon Young has hit .268/.292/.385 for the balance of the season.  However, position a runner in scoring position for him (which has happened 97 times in 2009) and Young suddenly has turned into a .310/.333/.437 hitter.  How did that happen?  Does he thrive under pressure?  Did testosterone and endorphins overtake his body and helped him concentrate all that much more in order to plate that all-important ribbie?  Is there an aroma that Young could smell when a runner was on base, as Mike Redmond suggested in 2006, that alerted him to try more?  Or does Delmon Young just enjoy getting his name in the paper and therefore tries just a little bit harder when he can be the hero? 

 

Some of that could be true, I suppose.  I’ve never taken a whiff from the batter’s box at the Metrodome with Joe Mauer dancing off of third.  The reality is that the outcome of such small sample sizes fluctuates wildly from year-to-year and the element of luck is ever-present.  In The Book, the analysts concluded that it takes 600 plate appearances to appropriately conclude a trend to be true.   These 30-to-150 plate appearances a year with a runner in scoring position or leading off an inning does not provide an accurate depiction of the hitter.  Yes, better hitters might hold a better batting line with RISP but in the same vein, a bad hitter can dink-and-doink a handful of hits and become a .300 hitter in those circumstances as well.  That said it is far more probable that Delmon Young is a .677 OPS hitter overachieving by 100 points with RISP because of his plate appearance totals rather than the other way around.         

 

Going back to Cuddyer’s explosive performance as a leadoff hitter, his condition is much of the same as Young’s RISP numbers.  The right fielder is hitting a massive 243 OPS points higher when he begins an inning.  His real performance resides between his vacuum numbers – a roughly .900 OPS hitter.

The 'Neau Morneau Effect

 

It is hard to consider that the Twins would have a gnat’s ass chance of slipping past the Detroit Tigers without their All Star first baseman in the lineup.  The truth, however, is we have not had him in the lineup since mid-July.  Up until July 22^nd, Justin Morneau shot lasers and rainmakers around the nation’s ballparks, hitting .316/.398/.588 with 23 HRs and driving in 78 runs.  From the 22^nd on it was like a parasitic-likeness of Alexi Casilla on creatine inhibited his body, guiding him to eke out a .175/.281/.351 batting line with 7 HRs and 22 runs batted in.  This was not Justin Morneau.  This was Matt Tolbert interloping in the heart of the order. 

 

The question is how many games did this second-rate Morneau’s bat situated in the middle of the lineup cost the Twins?  Could it be worth three in the win column over the course of 48 games?  When the Grande Canadian was chugging on all cylinders, he was driving in runs with ease, hitting .354/.473/.659 with 12 extra base hits with runners in scoring position (RISP) from the beginning of the year until July 21^st.  In 45 at-bats with runners in scoring position from the 22^nd on, Morneau had hit .178/.283/.200 with just a solitary extra base hit.  Getting out 53 percent of the time versus 72 percent of the time is a significant difference – especially in the context of what should be your RBI man (and the guy who comes to the plate in RBI situations most frequently).  In that same span of games, the rest of the lineup hit .292/.360/.453 with runners in scoring position.  His continued presence undoubtedly hurt the kinetic efficiency of the lineup.* 

 

*Naturally, you can lump the stubborn insistence on using Orlando Cabrera at the two spot as well.  Since coming over to the Twins, Cabrera has hit .244/.275/.372 in the two hole.  So, the Twins had sandwiched the game’s best hitter in Joe Mauer – who is retired in a major league low of 56 percent of plate appearances – with two hitters that have been out in 73 and 72 percent of their plate appearances respectively. (blink, blink).  It would seem only a season-ending back injury will get Ron Gardenhire to reconsider the lineup structure…then again, as some in the game would say, baseball isn’t played on a calculator.

 

From July 22^nd until September 12^th, when he last played, the Twins went 17-25 the games Morneau was in and 5-1 the games he was out (either for the dizzies or a mental break).   In that 48 game stretch of substandard offense from their cleanup hitter, the Twins scored 4.66 runs per game, roughly 0.25 runs less than they would when he was healthy in the first 94 games.  Since his removal from the lineup, the squad has averaged 6.5 runs per game and has gone 3-0 (bringing the ‘Neau Morneau record to 8-1 since July 22^nd). 

 

This is not about Morneau per se, rather it about getting the most efficiency out of your lineup:  A healthy Morneau is a superior choice for cleanup (or third, for that matter) than just about everyone else on the roster (save for Kubel against a righty who favors fastballs).  The injured version was simply a detriment.  It is a shame that it took a season-ending injury for the manager to react.

OtB Twins Notes: 09.14.09

Kelsie Smith notes that Ron Gardenhire is satisfied with the shape his bullpen is in.  Since the demotion of Philip Humber on August 28^th, opponents are hitting just .200/.263/.357 for the relievers.  Jesse Crain has been particularly tough, as opponents are just 2-for-22 with five strikeouts and no extra base hits.  The two members that are having the most problems are the two newest Twins, Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay.  The pair have allowed hitters to go .282 (11-for-39) with 2 doubles and 2 home runs in their brief tenure in Minnesota.

 

While Rauch will be in a Twins uniform in 2010, Gardenhire told Smith that he is encouraging the front office to bring back the impending free agent Mahay.  With the trials and tribulations faced by all lefties not named Jose Mijares, it not unexpected that the manager would request an additional lefty in the ‘pen.   Craig Breslow and Sean Henn failed to neutralize left-handed batters, allowing them to hit .230/.331/.418, now both are out of the organization.  Meanwhile, Mahay has been far short of dominant against his left-handed brethren as same-sided opponents have hit .281/.309/.483 in 94 plate appearances.  Combine that with the fact that righties have obliterated him this year (.337/.429/.594) and his usefulness falls under the category of “urinal cake”.

 

Justin Morneau was out of the lineup on Sunday, taking a much needed mental day, although the off-day was proclaimed to be in response to a stiff back from his headfirst slide on Friday.  Since July 22^nd, when he was hitting .316/.398/.588, he has gone .175/.281/.351 thereby Punto-izing his batting line.  Plenty has been made on recent broadcasts about his “stepping out” on his swings but what are the adverse affects?  Much of the source of his offensive woes can be attributed to his inability to drive the ball to the opposite field.  Prior to the extended slump, Morneau held a .346 average and a .638 slugging line on balls hit to left.  Since his decline, Morneau has hit just .133 and slugged .233 going that direction.

 

Joe Christensen reports that Gardenhire addressed the issue of his outfield for 2010 and Gardy stated that he wanted Denard Span to be entrenched in a position rather than shifting around from foul pole to foul pole.  Undoubtedly, Span’s presence in the outfield is critical to success.  On top of being a great leadoff hitter, he provides range that covers huge swaths of land.  Gardenhire believes that Span and Michael Cuddyer will be his two starters in 2010 and the third member is still under consideration.  The final outfield spot could go to either Carlos Gomez or Delmon Young, neither of whom impressed offensive.   What should give Gomez the edge (or rather, what a wiser organization would recognize) is defense.   A few months ago when writing about Jarrod Washburn, BP’s Jonah Keri documented how the Mariners improved so quickly (and frugally) in 2009 was by acquiring defense for pennies on the dollar.  Defense is an undervalued commodity and Gomez can provide that – he’s fourth on John Dewan’s fielding bible at +15.  Span, on the other hand, is +8 and 13^th among CF but has shown he is much more suited as a corner outfielder (his arm is not strong enough to make deep throws in center).  The Twins can improve by several wins in 2010 by simply playing Gomez and Span in the outfield every day.

 

Rochester first baseman Brock Peterson was named the International League’s Batter of the Week after compiling a five-game stat line of .765 (13-for-17) with 2 doubles, a triple and 2 home runs.  Peterson will be a minor league free agent this offseason but he recognizes the writing on the wall in Minnesota: “I love the Minnesota Twins.  I’d like to be a Twin my whole career, but Justin Morneau isn’t going anyway.”

 

Bill Reynolds, a columnist at the Providence Journal, visits with the recently retired Twins prospect Jay Rainville about his transition from the game.

 

Tyler Kepner at the NY Times Bats Blog examines the runaround Sean Henn received during his traded last week by the Twins to the Orioles for the PTBNL (or cash).  Henn has just surrendered a 1-2 home run to Shelley Duncan while pitching for Rochester and figured his season was done when he was not called up to Minnesota in September.  Settled back in Dallas and ready for the offseason, Baltimore contacted him and told him to get his butt to Boston.  Ah, the life of a fringe major leaguer.   

The Fan's Scouting Report

I have become enamored by the The Scouting Report.  Created by Tom Tango and his associates at The Book (insidethebook.com), this community project gathers the fan's collection of players skills.  This is ingenious innovation, gathering a season's worth of eye-witness accounts and compiling them into a useful number.  Not enough good things can be said about the Wisdom of the Crowd approach.  In his introduction to the project, Tango notes that "Baseball's fans are very perceptive. Take a large group of them, and they can pick out the final standings with the best of them. They can forecast the performance of players as well as those guys with rather sophisticated forecasting engines. Bill James, in one of his later Abstracts, had the fans vote in for the ranking of the best to worst players by position. And they did a darn good job."   

 

Secondly, let's be honest.  When you're watching the game and you witness a groundball bound underneath Brendan Harris's out-stretched glove and into centerfield you never say to yourself "That Harris and his Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average divided by 150 defensive games played! Gaa!"  Rather, you question his first step or his overall quickness or his instincts.  In full disclosure, I like defensive metrics because they are better than the festering alternative (fielding percentage) and it provides insight to whether or not that player is able to handle a position well but really, that's about it.  John Dewan's Fielding Bible system, found updated at BillJamesOnline.net, takes it a step further and isolates whether a player is good at ranging to his left or right but it certainly doesn't identify that particular skill set.  Nor does it tell you whether he's got a good first step, strong arm, accurate arm or quick release. 

 

This is where Tango's project comes in to fill that void.  Millions of people attend ballgames and another solid contingent of that owns season tickets or watches every telecast.  Those people are formulating their opinions on each player and now have the opportunity to fill out a ballot that Tango then takes the average and compiles it into that year's Scouting Report.  No eye-crossing equations or decimal points or the word "Ultimate" - just an overall number from 0-100 on how that player's skills measures up.  

 

If you go to the Twins page from 2008, I'm sure you will find yourself in agreement with most of the numbers submitted.  Denard Span's tenure in right field in 2008 was the team's best overall defender at 78.  Joe Mauer is second with a 77 followed by Carlos Gomez at 65.  Looking more closely at Gomez's ratings, you'll see that his speed is off the charts at 92 but his throwing accuracy is a pitiful 31 (remember all the missed cuts, errent throws up the line and bullets to generally no one in particular?). 

 

This sort of free scouting reports is a wonderful, albeit under-utilitzed, tool for analysts such as myself.  When the hub-bub of the Mark Grudzielanek signing first surfaced, my first visit was to the standard Fangraphs.com, HardballTimes.com and BillJamesOnline.net to see what his overall defensive talent at second base amounted to in the more recent seasons.  In the past three seasons in Kansas City, Grudzie has had a consistent decline in his UZR value, unsurprising given his accelerated age. 

M.G.	Overall Position-Neutal	Instincts	First Step	Speed	Hands	Release	Strength	Accuracy	UZR/150
2008	59	65	54	38	68	77	46	72	5.3
2007	64	71	53	39	81	83	52	80	10.9
2006	65	71	49	41	80	85	58	81	16.1

As you can deduce, fans who watched him day-in, day-out in Missouri noted that his arm strength had been diminishing (dropping from 58 to 52 to 46), along with his release (85 to 83 to 77) and accuracy (81 to 80 to 72).  To be sure, this is still a very good report in 2008 in spite of decreasing skillset.  As we compare with some of the defensive metrics, we find that Grudzielanek did convert fewer double plays after 2006, possibly (but not necessarily) a byproduct of his deteriorating arm. The Twins of course brought Grudzielanek along slowly in the minors and eventually reached the same conclusion as the Scouting Reports' trends suggested - he's no longer capable of holding down a job at second base. 

Certainly with any attempts at cultivating the crowd for knowledge, there does exist the possibility of collective ignorance or indifference or both.  Consider Orlando Cabrera, who at 34 years old, has been a target of accusations claiming he is no longer capable of playing a demanding position like short.  In 2006 he turned in what could be considered one of his worst fielding seasons.  His fielding percentage was at the second-lowest it had been since becoming a starter, his UZR was -1.4 and his range was reduced.  The citizens of SoCal raked him over the coals in their ballots.  The following year, the LA fans were infatuated with the OC and his third-best fielding percentage of his career, giving him much improved marks.  He did demonstrate the ability to cover more ground which may be indicative of better first step or instincts - but how is it that his arm strength suddenly improved?  Or that his release was that much better?  Could those fans have been voting on Cabrera's fewer errors instead of his actual talents?  This past year, Chicago fans were given what was Cabrera's best UZR/150 year (13.1) since 2005 and they lambasted his skils.  What fans at the Cell saw was an aging product -- nevermind the statistical numbers. 

 

O.C.	Overall Position-Neutal	Instincts	First Step	Speed	Hands	Release	Strength	Accuracy	UZR/150
2008	66	69	64	63	67	78	49	77	13.1
2007	78	78	72	64	83	89	67	87	8.9
2006	67	66	70	61	69	73	61	68	-1.6

 

You -- we, us -- have the opportunity to leave an impact on the defensive landscape of the Minnesota Twins.  Those of you that have watched or gone to almost every game have concocted some opinion on Delmon Young's first-step, Michael Cuddyer's arm strength or Nick Punto's range.  I recommend and encourage that everyone who has watched a substantial portion of the games, visit the instruction page and please submit a ballot for the Twins online.

 

Thanks.

OtB Twins Notes: 09.08.09

Joe Christensen tells us that the Twins front office will not provide any insight to whether or not they will retain any of the impending free agents on the roster, including Orlando Cabrera.  Christensen says that some baseball insiders are suggesting that "the team should hurry up and re-sign him to a two-year contract extension."  The Twins obtain Cabrera at the deadline because he was playing Murderball with AL pitchers and arrived in Minnesota to hit .327/.333/.531 in his first eleven games but since then, the guy the Twins should "hurry up" to re-sign has hit .200/.244/.238 in the most recent 22 games.  Even if he splits the difference next year, there is no telling what his already degraded defense will look like in the spring. 

The Twins lauded Jesse Crain's development and work done at Rochester during his demotion in June to improve his approach.  Since his return to the big club, Crain as thrown in 18 games and has worked 21 innings while striking out 19 and walking eight.  At the time of his demotion I detailed several issues Crain had in his repertoire against left-handed hitters who had a 1.000 slugging percent against him.  Crain had futilely attempt to retire lefties with his curveball (22 percent) but hitters simply laid off.  They waited for his fastball and crushed it (.500 BA, 3 HRs).  My recommendation was that for him to succeed, he would need to work on his secondary offerings and perhaps reinstate his slider which he had used more often in the earlier portion of his career.  Since his return, Crain has redeployed the use of his slider to left-handed batters (22 pct) while throwing his fastball far less frequently and has held them to a .731 OPS since July 23^rd.

 

Kelsie Smith highlighted Jason Kubel's sudden surge against same-sided pitching, noting that Kubel has hit .350 and slugged .525 when facing southpaws since the All Star break.  The Twins designated hitter said that "Against lefties, I feel like I concentrate more on seeing the ball better. I think that could help." Part of his success has been his new-found ability to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field, something that his fellow lefties in the lineup, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, had done for quite some time.   Prior to the break, Kubel had slugged just .250 in the first-half of the season going opposite field, but increased that to .857 since the All Star Game.  That goes back to Kubel "concentrating more" which has led to him staying on the ball instead of pulling out.  It is a remarkable adaptation in his game and if he is able to carry the corrections into 2010, Kubel's contract could go down as an absolute bargain for the Twins.

 

Kent Hrbek and beer?  They go together like, well, Kent Hrbek and beer.

 

Another former Twins farmhand/cup-o-coffee owner, Randy Ruiz, had been enjoying a nice little stint with the Toronto Blue Jay since his call-up in August.  However, after hitting .296/.398/.563 with 6 HRs in 83 PAs, Ruiz had his face tenderized with a Josh Towers fastball.  "When I was spitting blood, I thought I probably broke my nose," Ruiz said. "After a while, when I looked in the mirror, I thought, 'Ah, my face is swollen. I'm fine now.' Nothing growing up in New York City that I haven't experienced."  Towers' fastball averages 87.5-mph so I'm inclined to tell him to rub some aspirin on it and get back out there.

 

Joe Posnanski's insightful blog to Royals radio play-by-play man and former Golden Gopher Ryan Lafebvre's odd disdain or inability to accept advanced metrics in baseball seems to be a microcosm of how the Kansas City organization operates in general.   

Twins fans unable to make the trip to the Cleveland series missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to witness Indians outfielder, Shin-soo Choo, dancing with South Korea's musical sensation, Wonder Girls.  According to Korea Times prior to the game, Choo, several Indians players and the girls danced to their hit song "Nobody".  Judging from the attendance at the Prog that series, that is exactly how many fans saw that performance.  (In case you are curious, this is what the song sounds like.  "Half in English, half in squiggly".)