The Fan's Scouting Report

I have become enamored by the The Scouting Report.  Created by Tom Tango and his associates at The Book (insidethebook.com), this community project gathers the fan's collection of players skills.  This is ingenious innovation, gathering a season's worth of eye-witness accounts and compiling them into a useful number.  Not enough good things can be said about the Wisdom of the Crowd approach.  In his introduction to the project, Tango notes that "Baseball's fans are very perceptive. Take a large group of them, and they can pick out the final standings with the best of them. They can forecast the performance of players as well as those guys with rather sophisticated forecasting engines. Bill James, in one of his later Abstracts, had the fans vote in for the ranking of the best to worst players by position. And they did a darn good job."   

 

Secondly, let's be honest.  When you're watching the game and you witness a groundball bound underneath Brendan Harris's out-stretched glove and into centerfield you never say to yourself "That Harris and his Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average divided by 150 defensive games played! Gaa!"  Rather, you question his first step or his overall quickness or his instincts.  In full disclosure, I like defensive metrics because they are better than the festering alternative (fielding percentage) and it provides insight to whether or not that player is able to handle a position well but really, that's about it.  John Dewan's Fielding Bible system, found updated at BillJamesOnline.net, takes it a step further and isolates whether a player is good at ranging to his left or right but it certainly doesn't identify that particular skill set.  Nor does it tell you whether he's got a good first step, strong arm, accurate arm or quick release. 

 

This is where Tango's project comes in to fill that void.  Millions of people attend ballgames and another solid contingent of that owns season tickets or watches every telecast.  Those people are formulating their opinions on each player and now have the opportunity to fill out a ballot that Tango then takes the average and compiles it into that year's Scouting Report.  No eye-crossing equations or decimal points or the word "Ultimate" - just an overall number from 0-100 on how that player's skills measures up.  

 

If you go to the Twins page from 2008, I'm sure you will find yourself in agreement with most of the numbers submitted.  Denard Span's tenure in right field in 2008 was the team's best overall defender at 78.  Joe Mauer is second with a 77 followed by Carlos Gomez at 65.  Looking more closely at Gomez's ratings, you'll see that his speed is off the charts at 92 but his throwing accuracy is a pitiful 31 (remember all the missed cuts, errent throws up the line and bullets to generally no one in particular?). 

 

This sort of free scouting reports is a wonderful, albeit under-utilitzed, tool for analysts such as myself.  When the hub-bub of the Mark Grudzielanek signing first surfaced, my first visit was to the standard Fangraphs.com, HardballTimes.com and BillJamesOnline.net to see what his overall defensive talent at second base amounted to in the more recent seasons.  In the past three seasons in Kansas City, Grudzie has had a consistent decline in his UZR value, unsurprising given his accelerated age. 

M.G.	Overall Position-Neutal	Instincts	First Step	Speed	Hands	Release	Strength	Accuracy	UZR/150
2008	59	65	54	38	68	77	46	72	5.3
2007	64	71	53	39	81	83	52	80	10.9
2006	65	71	49	41	80	85	58	81	16.1

As you can deduce, fans who watched him day-in, day-out in Missouri noted that his arm strength had been diminishing (dropping from 58 to 52 to 46), along with his release (85 to 83 to 77) and accuracy (81 to 80 to 72).  To be sure, this is still a very good report in 2008 in spite of decreasing skillset.  As we compare with some of the defensive metrics, we find that Grudzielanek did convert fewer double plays after 2006, possibly (but not necessarily) a byproduct of his deteriorating arm. The Twins of course brought Grudzielanek along slowly in the minors and eventually reached the same conclusion as the Scouting Reports' trends suggested - he's no longer capable of holding down a job at second base. 

Certainly with any attempts at cultivating the crowd for knowledge, there does exist the possibility of collective ignorance or indifference or both.  Consider Orlando Cabrera, who at 34 years old, has been a target of accusations claiming he is no longer capable of playing a demanding position like short.  In 2006 he turned in what could be considered one of his worst fielding seasons.  His fielding percentage was at the second-lowest it had been since becoming a starter, his UZR was -1.4 and his range was reduced.  The citizens of SoCal raked him over the coals in their ballots.  The following year, the LA fans were infatuated with the OC and his third-best fielding percentage of his career, giving him much improved marks.  He did demonstrate the ability to cover more ground which may be indicative of better first step or instincts - but how is it that his arm strength suddenly improved?  Or that his release was that much better?  Could those fans have been voting on Cabrera's fewer errors instead of his actual talents?  This past year, Chicago fans were given what was Cabrera's best UZR/150 year (13.1) since 2005 and they lambasted his skils.  What fans at the Cell saw was an aging product -- nevermind the statistical numbers. 

 

O.C.	Overall Position-Neutal	Instincts	First Step	Speed	Hands	Release	Strength	Accuracy	UZR/150
2008	66	69	64	63	67	78	49	77	13.1
2007	78	78	72	64	83	89	67	87	8.9
2006	67	66	70	61	69	73	61	68	-1.6

 

You -- we, us -- have the opportunity to leave an impact on the defensive landscape of the Minnesota Twins.  Those of you that have watched or gone to almost every game have concocted some opinion on Delmon Young's first-step, Michael Cuddyer's arm strength or Nick Punto's range.  I recommend and encourage that everyone who has watched a substantial portion of the games, visit the instruction page and please submit a ballot for the Twins online.

 

Thanks.

OtB Twins Notes: 09.08.09

Joe Christensen tells us that the Twins front office will not provide any insight to whether or not they will retain any of the impending free agents on the roster, including Orlando Cabrera.  Christensen says that some baseball insiders are suggesting that "the team should hurry up and re-sign him to a two-year contract extension."  The Twins obtain Cabrera at the deadline because he was playing Murderball with AL pitchers and arrived in Minnesota to hit .327/.333/.531 in his first eleven games but since then, the guy the Twins should "hurry up" to re-sign has hit .200/.244/.238 in the most recent 22 games.  Even if he splits the difference next year, there is no telling what his already degraded defense will look like in the spring. 

The Twins lauded Jesse Crain's development and work done at Rochester during his demotion in June to improve his approach.  Since his return to the big club, Crain as thrown in 18 games and has worked 21 innings while striking out 19 and walking eight.  At the time of his demotion I detailed several issues Crain had in his repertoire against left-handed hitters who had a 1.000 slugging percent against him.  Crain had futilely attempt to retire lefties with his curveball (22 percent) but hitters simply laid off.  They waited for his fastball and crushed it (.500 BA, 3 HRs).  My recommendation was that for him to succeed, he would need to work on his secondary offerings and perhaps reinstate his slider which he had used more often in the earlier portion of his career.  Since his return, Crain has redeployed the use of his slider to left-handed batters (22 pct) while throwing his fastball far less frequently and has held them to a .731 OPS since July 23^rd.

 

Kelsie Smith highlighted Jason Kubel's sudden surge against same-sided pitching, noting that Kubel has hit .350 and slugged .525 when facing southpaws since the All Star break.  The Twins designated hitter said that "Against lefties, I feel like I concentrate more on seeing the ball better. I think that could help." Part of his success has been his new-found ability to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field, something that his fellow lefties in the lineup, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, had done for quite some time.   Prior to the break, Kubel had slugged just .250 in the first-half of the season going opposite field, but increased that to .857 since the All Star Game.  That goes back to Kubel "concentrating more" which has led to him staying on the ball instead of pulling out.  It is a remarkable adaptation in his game and if he is able to carry the corrections into 2010, Kubel's contract could go down as an absolute bargain for the Twins.

 

Kent Hrbek and beer?  They go together like, well, Kent Hrbek and beer.

 

Another former Twins farmhand/cup-o-coffee owner, Randy Ruiz, had been enjoying a nice little stint with the Toronto Blue Jay since his call-up in August.  However, after hitting .296/.398/.563 with 6 HRs in 83 PAs, Ruiz had his face tenderized with a Josh Towers fastball.  "When I was spitting blood, I thought I probably broke my nose," Ruiz said. "After a while, when I looked in the mirror, I thought, 'Ah, my face is swollen. I'm fine now.' Nothing growing up in New York City that I haven't experienced."  Towers' fastball averages 87.5-mph so I'm inclined to tell him to rub some aspirin on it and get back out there.

 

Joe Posnanski's insightful blog to Royals radio play-by-play man and former Golden Gopher Ryan Lafebvre's odd disdain or inability to accept advanced metrics in baseball seems to be a microcosm of how the Kansas City organization operates in general.   

Twins fans unable to make the trip to the Cleveland series missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to witness Indians outfielder, Shin-soo Choo, dancing with South Korea's musical sensation, Wonder Girls.  According to Korea Times prior to the game, Choo, several Indians players and the girls danced to their hit song "Nobody".  Judging from the attendance at the Prog that series, that is exactly how many fans saw that performance.  (In case you are curious, this is what the song sounds like.  "Half in English, half in squiggly".)

Nathan's Slider

From Pat Borzi at MinnPost:

Manager Ron Gardenhire, faced with a barrage of questions about Nathan's sudden struggles, said Nathan "dropped his arm" throwing a nothing slider to Konerko for the tying homer. That means Nathan released the pitch lower than the normal apex of his delivery, a common mistake that reduces the sharpness of the break. A slider with little break, thrown to a power hitter like Konerko, often ends up in the seats. Gardenhire said when he removed Nathan, catcher Mike Redmond told him Nathan was dropping his arm.

Nathan vehemently denied that he was dropping his arm for any sliders to the media following the outing.  As Borzi reported, Nathan told the media members that he had noticed himself doing that several appearances ago but had made the adjustments to correct that.  A quick review of Wednesday's release points at Brooksbaseball.net shows that Nathan was indeed lowering his release point for several of his sliders:

 

This decrease has led to more horizontally breaking sliders with less vertical break.  Not only was this flatter slider was proven to be more hittable -- thanks Mr. Konerko -- but it became increasingly more difficult to locate for a strike. 

 

As you can see in the graph below extracted from his July 18th appearance against the Texas Rangers, Nathan's slider release was much closer to that of his fastball (small sample size notwithstanding). 

 

 

The difference between the two release points is evident in the direction the pitch is moving.   The slider from September 2nd has a more pronounced horizontal break while the July 18th version enjoys a sizable vertical break advantage:

 

Nathan's Slider Movement	Number of pitches	Horizontal Movement on Average (in inches)	Vertical Movement on Average (in inches)
July 18th	4	0.75	3.61
Sept 2nd	16	1.19	2.78

 

All of this seems to be traced back to his blown save-turned-win against Kansas City on August 21st when he threw 53-pitches.  Prior to that date, Nathan had worked 46.2 innings, accumulating a 5.45 K/BB ratio and an opponent slugging percentage of .245.  Since that outing versus the Royals Nathan has tossed 6.2 innings and seen his K/BB ratio plummet to 1.50 and his opponents slug a Pujolsian .700.  Physically or mentally, something went wrong from that date forward. 

 

The biggest aspect of his game to be impacted was his slider.  Before August 21st, Nathan threw his slider in the zone nearly 40 percent of the time.  While it received plenty of swing and misses both in and out of the zone, getting contact on the pitch typically meant a ground out.   However from August 21st onward, Nathan located his slider in the zone just 20 percent of the time.  As the White Sox proved so eloquently on Wednesday, is that if you can refrain from chasing it, he would not throw it for a strike.  Throwing 16 sliders against the White Sox, the opposing batters took just two of those for strikes.  The overall toll resulted in more pitches. 

 

There are two hypotheses that come to mind regarding this slider.  The first is that Nathan's arm is tired.  Though it is not represented in the velocity, Nathan is allowing his arm to drag a bit and thus falling to the side on the slider a tad more.  Considering the gaudy pitch totals in the month of August let alone a six-game stretch in which he chucked 163-pitches (no where else during the season did he encroach this number at all in that little of work), it is a rather easy jump to conclude that he would drift from fatigue.  The second theory is that he is INTENTIONALLY throwing more out of the zone with his slider.  After the game against Chicago, Nathan felt that he was getting "too predictable".  As a pitcher that has gone to lengths to add another pitch in recent years, Nathan is always trying to stay a step ahead so it seems.  Just a few outings prior, the Rangers' David Murphy brought Texas within one on a ground-rule double from a Nathan slider.  A week before that, the Royals' Bryan Pena tied the game on a home run off a slider as well.  To change it up, Nathan perhaps has tried too hard to locate that pitch away from a swing -- to avoid any major contact.  

 

Either way, fatigue-related or over-thinking, Nathan has proven himself as one of the top-notch closers in the game.  A chain of outings like this is more likely temporary than anything else. 

Three and a half games back...

And pretty sure I know what Ozzie just said.  It was naughty.

Twins acquire two relievers, lose minor league pitching depth

 In series of roster moves prior to the weekend, the Twins secured right-handed set-up man Jon Rauch from the Arizona Diamondbacks for a player-to-be-named and left-handed specialist Ron Mahay after he was released by the Kansas City Royals but lost surging pitching prospect in Yohan Pino to the Cleveland Indians to complete the Carl Pavano trade.

 

The availability of minor league arms shrank by one more as Pino was selected by the Indians.  Not surprising, Pino has compiled a stellar year split between AA New Britain and AAA Rochester.  In his past two starts, Pino tossed back-to-back eight inning performances while striking out 13, walking two and allowing just one run.  Complaints from the various levels of the farm system were vocal as the Twins have borrowed numerous pitchers this season as injuries and ineffective outings piled up leaving affiliates with undefined rotations as guys like Jeff Manship, Armando Gabino, Sean Henn, Brian Duensing waited for standby flights to the Twin Cities as new arrivals from the lower ranks arrived.  Where Pino would have projected with Minnesota is debatable as he was demonstrating great stuff as a starter, but, at the very least, he could have been a fairly decent reliever as he shut down right-handed batters (.181 batting average, 24 percent K/PA) in 2009. 

 

The Twins instead looked externally for candidates to fill the bullpen positions. 

A former closer while with the Washington Nationals, Rauch’s season opened to some powerfully unsexy numbers.  In 18.2 innings over 22 appearances, opponents slugged .530 off of him including three of his five home runs allowed.  It was this first-half performance that incited us to write Rauch off as “not a guy you would want in a Twins uniform late in a ballgame” for the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer.  How were we supposed to know that Rauch would turn things around?  Post-May 25^th, Rauch improved his location by dropping it down in the zone (51.4 percent post-May, 44 percent April-May).  Since then hitters have been unable to make as solid of contact, slugging just .364 off of him and he has procured a 2.84 ERA in 31.2 innings in 33 games.   

Complete with a neck tattoo, Rauch is a seriously imposing presence on the mound, but part of what makes him unique is the height which will allow him, as Bert likes to say, to “create that good downward plane” on his fastball.   His six-foot-eleven frame is reminiscent of the IDS building in a 1970s Minneapolis skyline when he is on the field.  With Matt Guerrier encroaching on yet another season of 75-plus appearances, obtaining Rauch provides relief for Guerrier who broke down at the end of the past two seasons from the heavy workload.  At 31 years old in September and a pre-paid tab for his arm next year, Rauch is a reasonable investment at the waiver deadline and particularly a better move in context of the organization’s timeframe for Pat Neshek’s return.

Ron Mahay, on the other hand, is flotsam that has fallen from the Royals organization.  Kansas City inked Mahay to a two-year, $8 million deal that was fueled by good intentions and in effort to capitalize on his successful 2007 season but the results were terrible when put into practice.  Following his season split with Texas and Atlanta in a year when he limited left-handed batters to a .189 batting average (.542 OPS), Mahay became a valued commodity for teams looking for bullpen help.  For whatever reason, the Royals opened their pocketbooks to a 36-year-old reliever coming of an artificially created career year and wound up with an expensive mess.   Mahay followed up the 2007 season by getting shelled by opponents for two straight years – even against same-sided batters who hit .269/.321/.429 off of him in that duration. 

The 38-year-old lefty has control problems leading to those pesky late-game base-runners (4.07 BB/9) which  is never a positive, at the same time, Mahay has also been a victim of balls finding holes (.360 BABIP) and more wind channels than average (14.5 percent HR/FB).   The Twins have been light on the left-handed arms since Sean Henn was sent back to Rochester and Brian Duensing was shifted to the rotation so Mahay will keep Jose Mijares from being overtaxed during the stretch run.   If the Twins curb his exposure to right-handed hitters (who are slugging .638 off of his fastball), Mahay’s got a shot at being a decent contributor for $80K for the remainder of the season.   Still, with the possibility that Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins may return as relief arms, Mahay’s role in September with the Twins appears increasingly foggy.

The moves were a long-time in the making; issues that should have been fixed in June or July rather than this late in the year.  The duel acquisition undoubtedly addresses two problems in the bullpen and, better yet, it removes the struggling Philip Humber from the mix -- a huge addition by subtraction.