Nathan's Slider

From Pat Borzi at MinnPost:

Manager Ron Gardenhire, faced with a barrage of questions about Nathan's sudden struggles, said Nathan "dropped his arm" throwing a nothing slider to Konerko for the tying homer. That means Nathan released the pitch lower than the normal apex of his delivery, a common mistake that reduces the sharpness of the break. A slider with little break, thrown to a power hitter like Konerko, often ends up in the seats. Gardenhire said when he removed Nathan, catcher Mike Redmond told him Nathan was dropping his arm.

Nathan vehemently denied that he was dropping his arm for any sliders to the media following the outing.  As Borzi reported, Nathan told the media members that he had noticed himself doing that several appearances ago but had made the adjustments to correct that.  A quick review of Wednesday's release points at Brooksbaseball.net shows that Nathan was indeed lowering his release point for several of his sliders:

 

This decrease has led to more horizontally breaking sliders with less vertical break.  Not only was this flatter slider was proven to be more hittable -- thanks Mr. Konerko -- but it became increasingly more difficult to locate for a strike. 

 

As you can see in the graph below extracted from his July 18th appearance against the Texas Rangers, Nathan's slider release was much closer to that of his fastball (small sample size notwithstanding). 

 

 

The difference between the two release points is evident in the direction the pitch is moving.   The slider from September 2nd has a more pronounced horizontal break while the July 18th version enjoys a sizable vertical break advantage:

 

Nathan's Slider Movement	Number of pitches	Horizontal Movement on Average (in inches)	Vertical Movement on Average (in inches)
July 18th	4	0.75	3.61
Sept 2nd	16	1.19	2.78

 

All of this seems to be traced back to his blown save-turned-win against Kansas City on August 21st when he threw 53-pitches.  Prior to that date, Nathan had worked 46.2 innings, accumulating a 5.45 K/BB ratio and an opponent slugging percentage of .245.  Since that outing versus the Royals Nathan has tossed 6.2 innings and seen his K/BB ratio plummet to 1.50 and his opponents slug a Pujolsian .700.  Physically or mentally, something went wrong from that date forward. 

 

The biggest aspect of his game to be impacted was his slider.  Before August 21st, Nathan threw his slider in the zone nearly 40 percent of the time.  While it received plenty of swing and misses both in and out of the zone, getting contact on the pitch typically meant a ground out.   However from August 21st onward, Nathan located his slider in the zone just 20 percent of the time.  As the White Sox proved so eloquently on Wednesday, is that if you can refrain from chasing it, he would not throw it for a strike.  Throwing 16 sliders against the White Sox, the opposing batters took just two of those for strikes.  The overall toll resulted in more pitches. 

 

There are two hypotheses that come to mind regarding this slider.  The first is that Nathan's arm is tired.  Though it is not represented in the velocity, Nathan is allowing his arm to drag a bit and thus falling to the side on the slider a tad more.  Considering the gaudy pitch totals in the month of August let alone a six-game stretch in which he chucked 163-pitches (no where else during the season did he encroach this number at all in that little of work), it is a rather easy jump to conclude that he would drift from fatigue.  The second theory is that he is INTENTIONALLY throwing more out of the zone with his slider.  After the game against Chicago, Nathan felt that he was getting "too predictable".  As a pitcher that has gone to lengths to add another pitch in recent years, Nathan is always trying to stay a step ahead so it seems.  Just a few outings prior, the Rangers' David Murphy brought Texas within one on a ground-rule double from a Nathan slider.  A week before that, the Royals' Bryan Pena tied the game on a home run off a slider as well.  To change it up, Nathan perhaps has tried too hard to locate that pitch away from a swing -- to avoid any major contact.  

 

Either way, fatigue-related or over-thinking, Nathan has proven himself as one of the top-notch closers in the game.  A chain of outings like this is more likely temporary than anything else. 

Three and a half games back...

And pretty sure I know what Ozzie just said.  It was naughty.

Twins acquire two relievers, lose minor league pitching depth

 In series of roster moves prior to the weekend, the Twins secured right-handed set-up man Jon Rauch from the Arizona Diamondbacks for a player-to-be-named and left-handed specialist Ron Mahay after he was released by the Kansas City Royals but lost surging pitching prospect in Yohan Pino to the Cleveland Indians to complete the Carl Pavano trade.

 

The availability of minor league arms shrank by one more as Pino was selected by the Indians.  Not surprising, Pino has compiled a stellar year split between AA New Britain and AAA Rochester.  In his past two starts, Pino tossed back-to-back eight inning performances while striking out 13, walking two and allowing just one run.  Complaints from the various levels of the farm system were vocal as the Twins have borrowed numerous pitchers this season as injuries and ineffective outings piled up leaving affiliates with undefined rotations as guys like Jeff Manship, Armando Gabino, Sean Henn, Brian Duensing waited for standby flights to the Twin Cities as new arrivals from the lower ranks arrived.  Where Pino would have projected with Minnesota is debatable as he was demonstrating great stuff as a starter, but, at the very least, he could have been a fairly decent reliever as he shut down right-handed batters (.181 batting average, 24 percent K/PA) in 2009. 

 

The Twins instead looked externally for candidates to fill the bullpen positions. 

A former closer while with the Washington Nationals, Rauch’s season opened to some powerfully unsexy numbers.  In 18.2 innings over 22 appearances, opponents slugged .530 off of him including three of his five home runs allowed.  It was this first-half performance that incited us to write Rauch off as “not a guy you would want in a Twins uniform late in a ballgame” for the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer.  How were we supposed to know that Rauch would turn things around?  Post-May 25^th, Rauch improved his location by dropping it down in the zone (51.4 percent post-May, 44 percent April-May).  Since then hitters have been unable to make as solid of contact, slugging just .364 off of him and he has procured a 2.84 ERA in 31.2 innings in 33 games.   

Complete with a neck tattoo, Rauch is a seriously imposing presence on the mound, but part of what makes him unique is the height which will allow him, as Bert likes to say, to “create that good downward plane” on his fastball.   His six-foot-eleven frame is reminiscent of the IDS building in a 1970s Minneapolis skyline when he is on the field.  With Matt Guerrier encroaching on yet another season of 75-plus appearances, obtaining Rauch provides relief for Guerrier who broke down at the end of the past two seasons from the heavy workload.  At 31 years old in September and a pre-paid tab for his arm next year, Rauch is a reasonable investment at the waiver deadline and particularly a better move in context of the organization’s timeframe for Pat Neshek’s return.

Ron Mahay, on the other hand, is flotsam that has fallen from the Royals organization.  Kansas City inked Mahay to a two-year, $8 million deal that was fueled by good intentions and in effort to capitalize on his successful 2007 season but the results were terrible when put into practice.  Following his season split with Texas and Atlanta in a year when he limited left-handed batters to a .189 batting average (.542 OPS), Mahay became a valued commodity for teams looking for bullpen help.  For whatever reason, the Royals opened their pocketbooks to a 36-year-old reliever coming of an artificially created career year and wound up with an expensive mess.   Mahay followed up the 2007 season by getting shelled by opponents for two straight years – even against same-sided batters who hit .269/.321/.429 off of him in that duration. 

The 38-year-old lefty has control problems leading to those pesky late-game base-runners (4.07 BB/9) which  is never a positive, at the same time, Mahay has also been a victim of balls finding holes (.360 BABIP) and more wind channels than average (14.5 percent HR/FB).   The Twins have been light on the left-handed arms since Sean Henn was sent back to Rochester and Brian Duensing was shifted to the rotation so Mahay will keep Jose Mijares from being overtaxed during the stretch run.   If the Twins curb his exposure to right-handed hitters (who are slugging .638 off of his fastball), Mahay’s got a shot at being a decent contributor for $80K for the remainder of the season.   Still, with the possibility that Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins may return as relief arms, Mahay’s role in September with the Twins appears increasingly foggy.

The moves were a long-time in the making; issues that should have been fixed in June or July rather than this late in the year.  The duel acquisition undoubtedly addresses two problems in the bullpen and, better yet, it removes the struggling Philip Humber from the mix -- a huge addition by subtraction.   

Find a Penny, pick him up?

Rest of the season he has good luck?  It is a sobering thought to realize that a pitcher who is 7-8 with a 5.61 ERA is a sound addition to your rotation, but that is what Brad Penny would be to the Twins. 

 

There are several things to consider when reviewing Penny’s pedigree and look beyond the lopsided record and bloated ERA.  In a lot of ways, Penny is very similar in Boston as Carl Pavano was in Cleveland, his former rotation-mate while with the World Series champion Marlins.  Like Pavano, Penny is not as bad as his ERA.  It’s hard to look at a 5.61 earned run average and not be immediately turned off - after all, it is the pitching statistic equivalent of seeing Kathy Bates naked.  Nevertheless, Penny has AL’s 27^th-best xFIP which shows he’s hurling better than what the yardstick of ERA explains.  While it is not elite caliber, he has pitched better than Nick Blackburn (5.07 xFIP) and this fact alone means there would be an immediate upgrade to the rotation.  

 

Second, Penny has been thwarted in his efforts to keep runners from circling the bases.  His left-on-base percentage of 64.4 is one of the lowest among all AL starters (well below the average of 71.9).  Part of this is his fault as he has allowed 27 of 30 potential stealers to advance a base but Jason Varitek is also the worst qualified catcher in both leagues at throwing out runners (just an 8.9 pct caught-stealing rate).  Combine that with the fact that you have made three starts against the stealth thievery squad that is the Tampa Bay lineup and it makes sense that you will find more runners in scoring position undeservedly.  Pair him with Joe Mauer and those same runners might think twice before breaking to second. 

 

Third, defensively, the Red Sox converted a below-league average amount of balls in play into outs.  While I noted that Pavano had the third-worst among qualified pitchers in the AL at the time of his acquisition, Penny exercises bar none the worst defensive efficiency ratio (.673) in the league.   This makes perfect sense when you consider his outfield unit in Boston.  With the exception of Jacoby Ellsbury, the Sox have a fairly slow-footed assortment of outfielders that equates to a.883 revised zone rating as a group (tied with the Angels for the lowest in the league).  Penny’s 40 percent flyball rate makes him lean slightly more towards being a flyball pitcher (though he’s probably closer to neutral) and has a high-than-normal .275 batting average on his flyballs (.223 league-average) because of the coverage.  At .918 revised zone rating in the outfield, the Twins have one of the better units, particularly with Carlos Gomez and Denard Span consisting of 2/3^rds of the fielders.  Provide Penny that same support and it will shave that many more hits off of his totals. 

 

Lastly, Penny’s control has been borderline fantastic this year.  In 131.2 innings in 2009, he’s walked just 42 (2.8 BB/9).  Part of this is that he has been fairly vigilant at throwing strikes (52.2 pct zone presence) and working ahead of the hitters (60.5 pct first-pitch strikes).  This is an attribute that plays well within the Twins program: Throw strikes and let your fielders do the work.

 

Of course, this isn’t like someone just walked away from a BMW with the keys left in it.  Penny has plenty of dings that cannot be as easily buffed out with advanced statistics.  Since the all-star break, opponents have slugged .548 off of him along with seven home runs in seven games, not to mention 50 hits in 38 innings pitched leading to a beautiful disaster WHIP of 1.657.  Even with this foreknowledge of multiple hit potential and the necessary $1.1 to $1.4 million expense it cost to enlist his services for the remainder of the season, Penny would be worth every (corny pun redacted).  Face it, with a small glimmer of hope that exists for the Twins with the final month encroaching, no matter how talented they may be, the division will not be won on the backs of Armando Gabino or Jeffrey Manship.

Twins and pitch counts.

About now, I should be extolling the virtues of having Philip Humber, Bobby Keppel and Jesse Crain in the bullpen, a group whose collective contributions this month prior to last night’s game was a .314 average against along with 14 extra base hits.  Humber was unhittable last night, but not the good kind.  Keppel continued to be hit hard but miraculously escaped several jams thanks to sloppy baserunning.  Crain was downright brilliant, retiring six straight O’s before Nolan Reimold nine-ironed a slider for a double in the 8^th. 

 

What’s more interesting to me right now is the body count of Twins pitchers that is amassing.  Since the start of the season Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Jesse Crain, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano have made visits to the disabled list.  With the exception of Slowey’s wrist, all of the others are associated with the arms.  "Twins starter" is swiftly becoming an occupation as dangerous to your health as any profession.  Because of these injuries, the Twins have had to use Brian Duensing, R.A. Dickey, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Jeff Manship and now Armando Gabino to temp. 

 

The overabundance of sore arms and elbows has led to questions regarding their physical conditioning and how well their arms have been built up.  Are the Twins putting enough emphasis on increasing arm strength in the minor league levels?

 

In an article earlier this month in the Southwest Florida News Press, Fort Myers pitch coach, Steve Mintz, who is in his first-year replacing the long-time coach Eric Rasmussen (who replaced the departed Rick Knapp), revealed through a David Bromberg quote a bit of the organization’s pitching development strategy: 

"I threw 77 pitches in six innings in one of my recent starts, and I was like, 'This is it?' " [David] Bromberg said as Mintz informed him to take a seat in favor of a reliever. "He wants us to be healthy. He wants us to become playoff pitchers.”

If I understand this correctly, the Miracles' pitching coach is limiting a fast-rising prospect’s pitch count to ensure that he is healthy for the Florida State League playoffs?  This is an absurd development policy.  First, it is a meaningless post-season event.  Secondly, more and more it is becoming accepted that less pitching actually increases the risk of the injury in the long run.  In order to properly build his and other prospects arm strength, Mintz should be requiring these kids throw more in the games, not preparing for playoffs. 

 

Was the pitch count treatment the same when Perkins and Liriano were in Fort Myers?  Were the two lefties protected?  Obviously with both recovering from injuries that took them out for an extended period of time, the circumstances may be different, but did a soft workload weaken their arms? 

 

Meanwhile at the Twins' top affiliate in Rochester, manager Stan Cliburn - who has seen numerous staff members pulled into duty in Minnesota - was given a different edict regarding pitch counts.  Following Yohan Pino's August 19th start, Cliburn said:

“We carried him all the way to his pitch count – 113, three over the max of 110. It was just an outstanding performance. The whole team knows what he did. He picked up the bullpen, the whole staff.”

The 110-pitch threshold should not surprise anyone as the organization does not like to have starters go beyond that number even at the major league level.  In 124 starts in 2009, the Twins have made just 47 starts (37 pct) in which they have gone over 100-pitches, the second-fewest in the AL.  The franchise seems to cultivate their arms to handle this limit and nothing more.  Stretching pitching prospects to a 115-mark seems reasonable as they ascend through the system.  This way, when they do reach Minnesota they'll be more than prepared to handle Rick Anderson's prescribed 100-pitches and would be ready to go further if a bullpen is in need of a rest.

 

The debate rages on regarding the amount a pitcher should throw in the minors.  Too much and he flames out; too little and he can't handle a full-seasons workload.  Too much and he's injured; too little and he's injured.  Baseball researchers will be intently monitoring pitchers emerging from the Rangers organization in the next few years as the team has implemented high pitch counts in efforts to keep their products from injuries.  My vote is for more pitches at the lower levels.