Twins acquire two relievers, lose minor league pitching depth

 In series of roster moves prior to the weekend, the Twins secured right-handed set-up man Jon Rauch from the Arizona Diamondbacks for a player-to-be-named and left-handed specialist Ron Mahay after he was released by the Kansas City Royals but lost surging pitching prospect in Yohan Pino to the Cleveland Indians to complete the Carl Pavano trade.

 

The availability of minor league arms shrank by one more as Pino was selected by the Indians.  Not surprising, Pino has compiled a stellar year split between AA New Britain and AAA Rochester.  In his past two starts, Pino tossed back-to-back eight inning performances while striking out 13, walking two and allowing just one run.  Complaints from the various levels of the farm system were vocal as the Twins have borrowed numerous pitchers this season as injuries and ineffective outings piled up leaving affiliates with undefined rotations as guys like Jeff Manship, Armando Gabino, Sean Henn, Brian Duensing waited for standby flights to the Twin Cities as new arrivals from the lower ranks arrived.  Where Pino would have projected with Minnesota is debatable as he was demonstrating great stuff as a starter, but, at the very least, he could have been a fairly decent reliever as he shut down right-handed batters (.181 batting average, 24 percent K/PA) in 2009. 

 

The Twins instead looked externally for candidates to fill the bullpen positions. 

A former closer while with the Washington Nationals, Rauch’s season opened to some powerfully unsexy numbers.  In 18.2 innings over 22 appearances, opponents slugged .530 off of him including three of his five home runs allowed.  It was this first-half performance that incited us to write Rauch off as “not a guy you would want in a Twins uniform late in a ballgame” for the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer.  How were we supposed to know that Rauch would turn things around?  Post-May 25^th, Rauch improved his location by dropping it down in the zone (51.4 percent post-May, 44 percent April-May).  Since then hitters have been unable to make as solid of contact, slugging just .364 off of him and he has procured a 2.84 ERA in 31.2 innings in 33 games.   

Complete with a neck tattoo, Rauch is a seriously imposing presence on the mound, but part of what makes him unique is the height which will allow him, as Bert likes to say, to “create that good downward plane” on his fastball.   His six-foot-eleven frame is reminiscent of the IDS building in a 1970s Minneapolis skyline when he is on the field.  With Matt Guerrier encroaching on yet another season of 75-plus appearances, obtaining Rauch provides relief for Guerrier who broke down at the end of the past two seasons from the heavy workload.  At 31 years old in September and a pre-paid tab for his arm next year, Rauch is a reasonable investment at the waiver deadline and particularly a better move in context of the organization’s timeframe for Pat Neshek’s return.

Ron Mahay, on the other hand, is flotsam that has fallen from the Royals organization.  Kansas City inked Mahay to a two-year, $8 million deal that was fueled by good intentions and in effort to capitalize on his successful 2007 season but the results were terrible when put into practice.  Following his season split with Texas and Atlanta in a year when he limited left-handed batters to a .189 batting average (.542 OPS), Mahay became a valued commodity for teams looking for bullpen help.  For whatever reason, the Royals opened their pocketbooks to a 36-year-old reliever coming of an artificially created career year and wound up with an expensive mess.   Mahay followed up the 2007 season by getting shelled by opponents for two straight years – even against same-sided batters who hit .269/.321/.429 off of him in that duration. 

The 38-year-old lefty has control problems leading to those pesky late-game base-runners (4.07 BB/9) which  is never a positive, at the same time, Mahay has also been a victim of balls finding holes (.360 BABIP) and more wind channels than average (14.5 percent HR/FB).   The Twins have been light on the left-handed arms since Sean Henn was sent back to Rochester and Brian Duensing was shifted to the rotation so Mahay will keep Jose Mijares from being overtaxed during the stretch run.   If the Twins curb his exposure to right-handed hitters (who are slugging .638 off of his fastball), Mahay’s got a shot at being a decent contributor for $80K for the remainder of the season.   Still, with the possibility that Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins may return as relief arms, Mahay’s role in September with the Twins appears increasingly foggy.

The moves were a long-time in the making; issues that should have been fixed in June or July rather than this late in the year.  The duel acquisition undoubtedly addresses two problems in the bullpen and, better yet, it removes the struggling Philip Humber from the mix -- a huge addition by subtraction.   

Find a Penny, pick him up?

Rest of the season he has good luck?  It is a sobering thought to realize that a pitcher who is 7-8 with a 5.61 ERA is a sound addition to your rotation, but that is what Brad Penny would be to the Twins. 

 

There are several things to consider when reviewing Penny’s pedigree and look beyond the lopsided record and bloated ERA.  In a lot of ways, Penny is very similar in Boston as Carl Pavano was in Cleveland, his former rotation-mate while with the World Series champion Marlins.  Like Pavano, Penny is not as bad as his ERA.  It’s hard to look at a 5.61 earned run average and not be immediately turned off - after all, it is the pitching statistic equivalent of seeing Kathy Bates naked.  Nevertheless, Penny has AL’s 27^th-best xFIP which shows he’s hurling better than what the yardstick of ERA explains.  While it is not elite caliber, he has pitched better than Nick Blackburn (5.07 xFIP) and this fact alone means there would be an immediate upgrade to the rotation.  

 

Second, Penny has been thwarted in his efforts to keep runners from circling the bases.  His left-on-base percentage of 64.4 is one of the lowest among all AL starters (well below the average of 71.9).  Part of this is his fault as he has allowed 27 of 30 potential stealers to advance a base but Jason Varitek is also the worst qualified catcher in both leagues at throwing out runners (just an 8.9 pct caught-stealing rate).  Combine that with the fact that you have made three starts against the stealth thievery squad that is the Tampa Bay lineup and it makes sense that you will find more runners in scoring position undeservedly.  Pair him with Joe Mauer and those same runners might think twice before breaking to second. 

 

Third, defensively, the Red Sox converted a below-league average amount of balls in play into outs.  While I noted that Pavano had the third-worst among qualified pitchers in the AL at the time of his acquisition, Penny exercises bar none the worst defensive efficiency ratio (.673) in the league.   This makes perfect sense when you consider his outfield unit in Boston.  With the exception of Jacoby Ellsbury, the Sox have a fairly slow-footed assortment of outfielders that equates to a.883 revised zone rating as a group (tied with the Angels for the lowest in the league).  Penny’s 40 percent flyball rate makes him lean slightly more towards being a flyball pitcher (though he’s probably closer to neutral) and has a high-than-normal .275 batting average on his flyballs (.223 league-average) because of the coverage.  At .918 revised zone rating in the outfield, the Twins have one of the better units, particularly with Carlos Gomez and Denard Span consisting of 2/3^rds of the fielders.  Provide Penny that same support and it will shave that many more hits off of his totals. 

 

Lastly, Penny’s control has been borderline fantastic this year.  In 131.2 innings in 2009, he’s walked just 42 (2.8 BB/9).  Part of this is that he has been fairly vigilant at throwing strikes (52.2 pct zone presence) and working ahead of the hitters (60.5 pct first-pitch strikes).  This is an attribute that plays well within the Twins program: Throw strikes and let your fielders do the work.

 

Of course, this isn’t like someone just walked away from a BMW with the keys left in it.  Penny has plenty of dings that cannot be as easily buffed out with advanced statistics.  Since the all-star break, opponents have slugged .548 off of him along with seven home runs in seven games, not to mention 50 hits in 38 innings pitched leading to a beautiful disaster WHIP of 1.657.  Even with this foreknowledge of multiple hit potential and the necessary $1.1 to $1.4 million expense it cost to enlist his services for the remainder of the season, Penny would be worth every (corny pun redacted).  Face it, with a small glimmer of hope that exists for the Twins with the final month encroaching, no matter how talented they may be, the division will not be won on the backs of Armando Gabino or Jeffrey Manship.

Twins and pitch counts.

About now, I should be extolling the virtues of having Philip Humber, Bobby Keppel and Jesse Crain in the bullpen, a group whose collective contributions this month prior to last night’s game was a .314 average against along with 14 extra base hits.  Humber was unhittable last night, but not the good kind.  Keppel continued to be hit hard but miraculously escaped several jams thanks to sloppy baserunning.  Crain was downright brilliant, retiring six straight O’s before Nolan Reimold nine-ironed a slider for a double in the 8^th. 

 

What’s more interesting to me right now is the body count of Twins pitchers that is amassing.  Since the start of the season Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Jesse Crain, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano have made visits to the disabled list.  With the exception of Slowey’s wrist, all of the others are associated with the arms.  "Twins starter" is swiftly becoming an occupation as dangerous to your health as any profession.  Because of these injuries, the Twins have had to use Brian Duensing, R.A. Dickey, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber, Jeff Manship and now Armando Gabino to temp. 

 

The overabundance of sore arms and elbows has led to questions regarding their physical conditioning and how well their arms have been built up.  Are the Twins putting enough emphasis on increasing arm strength in the minor league levels?

 

In an article earlier this month in the Southwest Florida News Press, Fort Myers pitch coach, Steve Mintz, who is in his first-year replacing the long-time coach Eric Rasmussen (who replaced the departed Rick Knapp), revealed through a David Bromberg quote a bit of the organization’s pitching development strategy: 

"I threw 77 pitches in six innings in one of my recent starts, and I was like, 'This is it?' " [David] Bromberg said as Mintz informed him to take a seat in favor of a reliever. "He wants us to be healthy. He wants us to become playoff pitchers.”

If I understand this correctly, the Miracles' pitching coach is limiting a fast-rising prospect’s pitch count to ensure that he is healthy for the Florida State League playoffs?  This is an absurd development policy.  First, it is a meaningless post-season event.  Secondly, more and more it is becoming accepted that less pitching actually increases the risk of the injury in the long run.  In order to properly build his and other prospects arm strength, Mintz should be requiring these kids throw more in the games, not preparing for playoffs. 

 

Was the pitch count treatment the same when Perkins and Liriano were in Fort Myers?  Were the two lefties protected?  Obviously with both recovering from injuries that took them out for an extended period of time, the circumstances may be different, but did a soft workload weaken their arms? 

 

Meanwhile at the Twins' top affiliate in Rochester, manager Stan Cliburn - who has seen numerous staff members pulled into duty in Minnesota - was given a different edict regarding pitch counts.  Following Yohan Pino's August 19th start, Cliburn said:

“We carried him all the way to his pitch count – 113, three over the max of 110. It was just an outstanding performance. The whole team knows what he did. He picked up the bullpen, the whole staff.”

The 110-pitch threshold should not surprise anyone as the organization does not like to have starters go beyond that number even at the major league level.  In 124 starts in 2009, the Twins have made just 47 starts (37 pct) in which they have gone over 100-pitches, the second-fewest in the AL.  The franchise seems to cultivate their arms to handle this limit and nothing more.  Stretching pitching prospects to a 115-mark seems reasonable as they ascend through the system.  This way, when they do reach Minnesota they'll be more than prepared to handle Rick Anderson's prescribed 100-pitches and would be ready to go further if a bullpen is in need of a rest.

 

The debate rages on regarding the amount a pitcher should throw in the minors.  Too much and he flames out; too little and he can't handle a full-seasons workload.  Too much and he's injured; too little and he's injured.  Baseball researchers will be intently monitoring pitchers emerging from the Rangers organization in the next few years as the team has implemented high pitch counts in efforts to keep their products from injuries.  My vote is for more pitches at the lower levels.  

OtB Twins Notes: 08.24.09

Following the Twins’ 5-4 victory over the Royals, La Velle E Neal revealed that the team decided to send right-hander Anthony Swarzak back to Rochester after Swarzak experienced a soul-crushing month of August going 0-4 with a 14.85 ERA.  Like most young pitchers, Swarzak will have to relearn the value of getting that all-important first strike.  Following a first-pitch strike, opponents held an OPS of .635 but crushed him (1.120 OPS) if he fell behind 1-0.  After getting ahead of hitters regularly in June (59.1 first-pitch strike) and July (56.0 FPS), Swarzak’s ability to attack the strike zone vanished in August (48.7 FPS) which led to 8 home runs in the month and a .900 slugging percentage. 

Prior to demoting Swarzak, the Twins tapped 25-year-old Armando Gabino from Rochester and scheduled him to start Tuesday against Baltimore.  The Twins landed Gabino from the Indians organization in 2004 during the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft and spot-started while primarily working as a reliever.  In his 36 appearances in AAA (five starts) this year Gabino worked 83 innings allowing 64 hits and a 54-to-20 K-to-BB ratio.  Maintaining a very impressive WHIP (1.01) -- a product of both his control (2.30 BB/9) and defense (.239 BABIP) – which does not appear to be a statistic that will travel with him to Minnesota considering his flyball tendencies and unsustainable home runs per flyball numbers (21% LD rate/41% FB rate with a 5.6% HR/FB).  His addition ensures that Swarzak will not have to receive another beating however, there are two more deserving starters in Kevin Mulvey and Yohan Pino currently at Rochester.  

Closer Joe Nathan was unavailable for Saturday night’s game against the Royals because he had thrown a season-high 53 pitches in his two-inning blown save turned win.  "There's been times when he's saved like three, four games in a row and I'm like, 'No way,' but it didn't come up when we needed to use him," [manager Ron] Gardenhire said. "I'd say, 'No way he's going to be pitching,' and he would say, 'Yeah, I'm pitching."  The 53-pitch night was the most pitches thrown in an outing since 2000 (and the most as a Twin dating back to the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees).  The 34-year-old is having a great season, yet is far less efficient then he was in his younger days. Among those with at least 40 innings pitched, Nathan is the leader in strikeout rate (11.5 K/9), ERA+ (249) and WHIP (0.842) but at 4.25 pitches-per-hitter Nathan is 5^th in that category among relievers and his highest total since 2004. 

Without Nathan’s services in the ninth inning, Ron Gardenhire turned to Matt Guerrier to secure the 8-6 lead on Saturday.  After allowing the Royals to pull within one on Yuniesky Betancourt’s run scoring fielder’s choice.  Guerrier got Josh Anderson to bounce to Alexi Casilla for the final out, recording the first non-Nathan save in almost a year and the 14^th save without Nathan since he arrived in Minnesota in 2004. 

Joe Crede was scratched with a sore lower back from Sunday’s game.  His absence from the Twins’ lineup means the third baseman has missed 30 percent of the total games played and a strong indication that he will fall well short of the 525 plate appearances necessary to obtain his full $7 million contract.  After starting the year hitting .240/.303/.504 with 9 home runs and 22 RBIs in 35 games through May 28^th, Crede has declined significantly hitting .221/.286/.367 with 6 home runs and 26 RBIs in 53 games.  Irreplaceable defense notwithstanding, Crede’s substandard offensive performance since May raises the concern that his health is now hindering his production on days in which he is in the lineup.      

Francisco Liriano may be out for longer than anticipated reports Rustin Dodd on Twinsbaseball.com.  Liriano told the media on Saturday that his arm "It’s been like that for probably like a month. My stuff, it was getting worse. I didn’t want to keep pitching like that. My arm was dead.”  His fastball’s average velocities in those five starts were 91.0, 92.2, 92.2, 88.4 and then 89.5.  More telling was the fact that his fastball was drifting further up in the zone, throwing 35 percent of his fastballs up on August 12^th and 17^th (his season average was around 20 percent). There could be a number of things wrong (shoulder, lats, etc) that leads to the elevation, but I would wager that this fatigue is not associated with his Tommy John-operated elbow based upon the decrease in velocity.  Liriano will be looked at by doctors when the team gets back to Minnesota this week and could rejoin the Twins as a reliever if deemed healthy. 

Dodd also noted that Boof Bonser’s rehabilitation from his torn labrum and rotator cuff surgery is going so well that Bonser may be available in the bullpen come September.  Another veteran relief arm would appease Ron Gardenhire who said that “Can't screw around. There are some spots out there. We can't end up with your whole Triple-A staff in the bullpen, (they're) kids. We're another late-inning guy away most of the time. You saw that again last night."  Questions regarding his potential effectiveness aside, the Twins are in desperate need of a reliever to absorb the load from Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares.  In the month of August alone opponents are 34-for-107 (.318 BA) with 14 extra base hits off of Bobby Keppel, Jesse Crain and Philip Humber. 

Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman appears to be one of the few East Coast-based writers who will go on record saying Joe Mauer is the 2009 MVP with his other-worldly performance this season.  While this fact should be obvious to beat writers across the country, just to reiterate in the event any stop by here today: Mauer is leading the AL in Batting Average, On-Base and Slugging Percentage – and by a wide-margin too.  The next closest candidate to Mauer’s .638 slugging is the Angels’ Kendry Morales at .572.  Naturally, Silverman cannot pass up the chance to lust over of Mauer’s presence in Massachusetts in 2012, wondering aloud “Never mind whether the Twins can afford that pricetag or not. The question is whether the Sox can afford to get in yet another bidding war with the Yankees, whose contract with Posada expires after the 2011 season. Do they have a choice?”  

Twins' minor league director Jim Rantz was in New Britain recently inspecting the organization AA talent and beamed about the team’s pitching stock, most notably Deolis Guerra and his change-up.   Said Rantz, “If [Guerra] can locate the fastball and throw strikes, that changeup is deadly. That’s a weapon. And is slider is not too bad either. He’s got good tilt. He’s got 83, 84 miles per hour. He’s gotten better.  This is only a 20-year-old kid and he’s already got about four years under his belt. I’m pleased with the advancement that he has made and how he’s come along.”  As I examined last week, Guerra’s polished mechanics in 2009 have contributed to his success and has given the Twins a potential number three starter in the coming years.

 

Guerra.

After two seasons and 168 innings split between two-leagues in the Mets system, Deolis Guerra had compiled a decent peripheral set -  averaging  7.3 strikeouts per nine innings while walking 3.6 per nine.  Once with the Twins organization, the team assigned him to Fort Myers (HA) where, at 19 years old, Guerra was nearly three years younger than his competition last year.  In 2008, his third stint in the Florida State League, word trickled in that his fastball had lost a few MPHs and his control vanished.  In what was his worst month, Guerra threw 23 innings in August and issued 20 free passes.  Not surprisingly, his overall walk rate ballooned (4.9 BB/9) while his strikeout rate shrank (4.9).  Reports of Guerra's reduced velocity and sub-par peripheral numbers conjured up collective groans from Twins territory as the budding pitching prospect acquired for Johan Santana trade seemed like it it was heading for another prospect miss. 

 

However, beginning 2009 with his fourth tour of duty in the FSL, Guerra showed signs of progress.  His strikeout rate, albeit still below the FSL average of 7.3, was an improved 5.8 K/9.  Additionally he was able to shave off several walks, dropping his rate to 2.5.  This development earned him an advancement to AA New Britain on July 7th.  His relocation to the Eastern League brought out the best of the big righty.  In his July 23rd start against hte Portland Sea Dogs, Guerra struck out 12 in seven innings and earned the Eastern League's Pitcher of the Week award.  In his most recent start, Guerra flirted with a no-hitter, actually not allowing a hit to the Akron Aeros for six innings and striking out nine before being lifted for a relief pitcher.

 

Where did this monster come from?

 

Normally in order to figure out what has changed I'd pour over pitchf/x data or the Inside Edge database attempting to find some answers to Guerra's improvement.  Maybe he regained velocity, changed arm motion, mixed in more breaking balls, etc.  Unfortunately these methods are unavailable when looking to analyze minor league talent.   Instead I wander through the few available youtube clips of Guerra and tried to breakdown his mechanics between the two seasons.  Dissecting video contributed to the Internet by the now-defunct SaberScouting from 2008 of Guerra's performance in Fort Myers in comparison to Guerra's New Britain performance supplied by TwinsonTwins.blogspot.com we can identify several items that he has refined in his mechanics that has led to this improved execution. 

 

The first thing that should jump out to you about the two motions is how stable Guerra is in his 2009 mechanics (bottom-white-uni) comparative to 2008 (top-greys).  Guerra's movement appears more fluid and steady this season.  Last year's model on the other hand contains some heavy herky-jerky actions.  This stems from his days in the Mets' organization, when Guerra sped through both the system and his delivery; neither of which were very good for him as a young pitcher.  The Twins set out to regroup his delivery and get him back under control. 

 

One of the most identifiable differences in his two deliveries - or at least the one the eyes focuses on first - is his leg-kick.  In 2008, his leg-kick had more of a pronounced pendulum swing appearance about it before bringing the leg up to where the balance point should be.  Because he is not bringing up his leg in a controlled manner, the extra movement prevents him from getting to a collected balance point to drive off the rubber.  Due to this inertia in his lower-half, his upper-half must counter to achieve a state of equilibrium between his lower and upper extremities.  Guerra forced his top-half to do an over-exaggerated wrap - a process where his back rolls to the point where he is showing the hitter both digits on his uniform.  This contortion causes his shoulders to rotate off the second-home line and onto the east-west axis, where they are almost parallel with first-third (but more appropriately, the second baseman and third base line).  This season, Guerra has implemented a more 'contained' and deliberate leg-kick, the lift of which looks more intentional rather than a someone doing an impromptu Rockette's routine.  He still brings the front leg close to his chest to derive power from, only Guerra is in far better control of his actions, keeping his lower and upper portions in unison.   

 

Once he twists his upper body off of the driveline, Guerra would need to re-adjust his motion to direct his momentum to the batter.  This resulted in another problem in Guerra's 'long-arming' the ball:  

 

 

 

Although these two videos are shot at slightly different locations above the left-handed batter's box (and set at a slightly different pace), you can clearly see that Guerra's arm in the top clip reveals Guerra reaching back further - almost dipping his back shoulder - in last year's model prior to coming forward with his delivery.   In addition to that, Guerra's elbow is wandering in some fairly uncharted territories.  It takes a substantial amount of effort to get his pitching arm righted once it wanders off this far.  Furthermore, Guerra's 2008 arm action gives the hitter several more reference points to pick up the ball and time him better whereas this season Guerra seems to hide the ball a bit better (even though you can pick it up for a brief moment behind his back).

 

Guerra's newly stabilized mechanics undoubtedly play a significant role in both his increased velocity and command of the strike zone.  Because he is still just 20 years old and playing in a league that is nearly five years older on average, it would be best to see Guerra repeat AA New Britain in 2010 to ensure that his mechanics remain consistent and avoid regressing into bad habits before advancing to AAA Rochester.     

 

 

A special thanks to the guys at twinsontwins.blogspot.com who have been posting the New Britain footage on youtube.  I encourage you guys - as well as anyone else that has access to a camera and the farm system - to keep the clips coming onto youtube!