The Pavano Acquisition.

With some reason, there exists a chorus of local media wonks that believe that Carl Pavano was less than a resounding acquisition for the Twins.  They will say that securing another aging, control-wielding pitcher that was passed over by the larger market teams at the trade deadline reeked of a “typical Twins” maneuver.  On the airwaves, KFAN’s Paul Allen recited how uninspiring this move was to a choir of uninformed rubes.   Yes, those that worship at gospel of ERA will be less enthused by the Pavano trade; however, there are plenty of reasons why this acquisition should be met with the same victorious reception as if the Twins landed either Cliff Lee or Jarrod Washburn.  In fact, there could be MORE reasons to be excited about Pavano. 

 

Littered with a history of more injuries than Wile E. Coyote, Pavano figured out a way to extort $39.95 million from George Steinbrenner while working just 26 days out of four years.   (Good work if you can find it.)  Back when the Yankees signed the then 28-year-old Pavano in December of 2004, they figured they had acquired a potential 20-game winner that had World Series experience and would be another frontline component of a dominating rotation that already boasted Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina and Kevin Brown.  Little did the Yankees know he would pull an Ocean’s Eleven on Steinbrenner’s money.  Pavano would never give New York a full season of starts in his four years in the Bronx, rather he would cost the organization millions in medical expenses and headaches. 

Though he may not be able to find a cab in NYC any time soon, Pavano rebounded nicely in 2009, appearing to be fully recovered.  In January, the Indians inked the tall righty to a one-year incentive-laden deal that started with a $1.5 million base but could increase by another $5.3 million as various milestones are reached (starts and innings).  Finding themselves as an also-ran in the Central and staring a $16 million dollar operational deficit in the face, the Indians began to jettison anything that could float.  Gone were Lee, Victor Martinez, Mark DeRosa, Rafael Betancourt and Ben Francisco.  Oddly enough, Pavano remained.  As attractive as Roy Halladay, Lee and Washburn were made out to be at the trade deadline, rare were reports of how adding Pavano could upgrade a rotation.  Perhaps it was the gaudy ERA or the looming injury potential, but no deal involving Pavano was made by the July 31^st deadline, possibly to a great baseball injustice to the Indians organization and a huge coup for the Twins.   

For teams that evaluates players with advanced statistics (Boston, Tampa and Seattle come to mind), it would be hard to ignore that his xFIP of 4.16 – a stat that normalizes the home run rate along with the infusion of strikeout and walk rates – which was TENTH best in the AL among qualified starters.  Better than Sabathia.  Better than Buerhle, Shields, Washburn, Burnett.   Et cetera.  Et Cetera.   He was pitching better than all of those staff aces.  One xFIP point worse than Lee – one point! – and it took the Phillies four of their top ten prospects to nab Lee from the Indians.

From his perspective, Pavano did everything he could to limit the number of guys on the basepaths.  With 1.7 walks per nine innings, Pavano was second only to the highly-coveted Halladay in walks.  Similarly, Pavano’s 67 percent first-pitch strike trailed only the Blue Jays’ ace as well.  His ERA over-5.00 is reflective of a largely unlucky series of events and the results of what happens once the ball was in play, which was out of his control.  While Washburn’s peripheral numbers are nothing to write home about, the Mariners supplied the flyball-oriented pitcher with some of the best fly-catchers in the game today in the Safeco outfield.  As Washburn’s trade value with inflated by his surroundings and his ERA substantially lowered in 2009 by the aid of his defense, Pavano was wrongly demerited for the sins of his defense.  Over the course of his career Pavano’s use of speed change between his fastball and changeup (10-mph velocity difference) coupled with the downward action of his split-finger tended to incite a higher number of groundballs than average.  Because of the Indians foolish insistence on using Jhonny Peralta at shortstop, it wound up costing the Tribe and Pavano numerous outs – evident by the team’s fourth-worst .770 infield revised zone rating leading to a higher average on those groundballs in play (.275 versus the league average of .233).  A defensive infield unit closer to that of the league average RZR of .783 would have saved the righty a good deal of baserunners.  

Furthermore, Pavano maintained a DER (defensive efficiency ratio) of .673 – the third lowest amount of balls converted to outs among qualified starters.  Because of Cleveland’s inability to exchange balls in play for outs at the going rate of .695, Pavano was forced to throw more pitches, leading to more opportunities for the opposition to drive a pitch. 

This is hardly giving Pavano the tools to succeed.  Whereas Washburn’s defense provided him with additional outs and quicker exits to the inning, this prolonged time on the hill came at the expense of more baserunners crossing the plate.  Pavano’s extra exposure resulted in more runs trickling in as he exercised the AL lowest strand rate of 63.4 percent while the average starting pitcher was able to strand 71.4 percent of all runners.  Part of that low number has to do with who Indians manager Eric Wedge relays the ball to once Pavano is pulled.  With 41 percent of inherited runners scored, Cleveland’s bullpen is the second-worst in the AL.   This is a considerable amount of bad luck interjecting itself into an otherwise solid pitcher. 

But the simplest reason to get behind this transaction is the fact that Pavano has been dominant against the two AL Central teams competing with the Twins.  For seven innings on Saturday night, the right-hander demonstrated exactly why the Twins were interested in his services.  Holding the Tigers to no runs on five hits, Pavano improved his 2009 record against Detroit to 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA in 30.1 innings.  Make that now 6-1 against the Tigers and White Sox combined.  Considering that there are 13 more matches against these opponents, there will be a good chance that Pavano works three to four of those games.  

Keppel.

When Bobby Keppel was called up from Rochester on June 24th, the Twins were in need of a reliever that could produce at a sustainable pace.  Luis Ayala, the touted "groundball" pitcher, failed to do so and drew the ire of Ron Gardenhire by leaving too many sliders up in the zone.  As replacement level-type pitcher getting groundballs at a 51 percent clip in AAA, Keppel would be a suitable and inexpensive gamble to supplant Ayala in the bullpen. 

 

From June 27th to July 19th, Keppel had pitched in seven game, thrown 16 inning while allowing one earned run on just eight hits along with a 0.57 GB/FB rate.  The right-hander appeared every bit the answer.  Yet after July 19th, Keppel would work in seven more games and allowing 12 earned runs on 17 hits with a nasty 7/2 BB/K ratio.  Put simply, Keppel was getting smashed up in the zone, an area he rarely entered in his first seven outings.

 

Trajectory | Strike Zone Plots

 

June 27, 2009 versus Cardinals

 

On June 27th, Gardenhire turned to Keppel to maintain the Twins 5-3 deficit against St Louis to two runs.  Keppel pitched admirably, surrendering a leadoff triple to Joe Thurston in his first MLB appearance since 2007, but held the Cardinals scoreless while pitching the fourth through the seventh.  True to his form, Keppel got seven of his 11 balls in play to be hit on the ground. Location was Keppel's saving grace.  By keeping the ball down in the zone (under the two-foot line on average) and away from the middle of the strike zone, hitters were forced to beat the ball into the dirt.  His fastball's velocity was averaging 94.0-mph on that June 27th game as he peppered in a biting slider as well. 

 

  

 

June 30th, 2009 versus Royals

His next outing in Kansas City on June 30th was much the same.  In his 2 1/3 innings of work, Keppel recorded four groundballs on five in play and struck out three batters.  His fastball had slowed a bit (93.5-mph) but he kept it at the knees or lower to avoid heavy contact: 

 

 

July 28th, 2009 versus White Sox

 

The All Star break interrupted Keppel's feelgood storyline.  When baseball resumed, Keppel struggled mightily as his pitches began to ascend in the zone and his sinking fastball was no longer knee-height (nor was the velocity closer to the mid-90s range).  On July 28th, Keppel was summoned to face the Chicago White Sox in the eighth inning.  His fastball, now averaging out at 93.2, is not thrown in the lower half of the zone but rather is sneaking up towards the middle of the plate -- an area that is more readily driven across the ballpark. 

July 31st, 2009 versus Angels

 

Following a nine-pitch outing on July 31st against Los Angeles, Keppel returned the following night.  With the Angels ahead six-to-four, Gardenhire turned to Keppel following RA Dickey's 2 2/3 inning effort.  Keppel rewarded his manager's decision by surrendering back-to-back home runs to Juan Riviera and Kendry Morales.  The right-hander would settle in and work 2 2/3 innings himself, allowing the two home runs but would give up six flyballs to his five grounders.  On top of that, his fastball's velocity would drop to an average of 91.7-mph - 2.3-mph slower and an additional .013-seconds to the plate. 

 

 

August 4th, 2009 versus Indians

 

On Tuesday night in Cleveland, with the Twins cruising to a 10-0 victory, Keppel was given the task of escorting Scott Baker's shut-out through the ninth inning.  Although his velocity returned (93-mph plus on average), Keppel labored to keep the ball down.  Jhonny Peralta doubled followed by a Travis Hafner single to end the scoreless drought.  Both pitches were up in the strike zone. 

 

Release Points

The natural inclination when something is wrong with location is to instinctually look at the release points and see if something has changed.  According to his release plots - arranged oldest to newest - we see that his point of release has shifted above six feet in height. This is an indication that his arm is straighter upon release and potentially causing less downward movement as a result.  The alteration could be related to Keppel attempting to aim the pitches rather than throw with his fluid motion but another hypothesis could envolved this being a product of arm fatigue.  After all, his velocity changed significantly between outings.   

 

OtB Twins Notes (08.03.09)

In the Los Angeles Angels' farewell tour of the Metrodome, the Twins were outscored 35-15.  LA Times beat writer, Mike DiGiovanna, provides some of his more memorable moments while covering the Halos in the Dome.  Writes DiGiovanna of the facility: "It just has no charm. The grass is plastic, the roof is sometimes impossible to find fly balls in, and the building has no real distinguishing characteristics. It's basically a football stadium the Twins happen to play baseball in. There is nothing aesthetically pleasing about it. About the only thing good you can say about the place is that it's not quite as depressing as the old Kingdome in Seattle."

 

Following the dismantling of the pitching staff, Joe Christensen suggested a few arms that maybe available in the weeks leading up to the waiver deadline of August 31st.  On the list are Arizona's Jon Garland and Doug Davis, San Deigo's Kevin Correia and Seattle's Miguel Batista.  Batista has little control (5.15 BB/9), Correia has been better with the addition of a slider and, judging by the Cla Meredith trade, the Padres have not figured out what market-value means and Garland has been in steady decline.  Davis is the only one among the group that appears to be the most intriguing. 

 

Speaking of Meredith, since the Orioles acquired him, he has thrown 5.2 innings, struckout five and walk none while giving up just one earned run during Boston's 18-10 assult on Baltimore.  Are you telling me we did not have a spare utility player lying around?

 

Sometimes an All Star break can be too relaxing.  Since returning from the hiatus, Bobby Keppel has pitched 10 innings and allowed 11 earned runs (9.90 ERA) on three home runs and an opponant slugging percentage of .619. 

 

Sid Hartman says that former Twins pitcher and radio broadcaster Jack Morris believes this Twins pitching staff (27.6 avg years old -3rd in AL) needs an infusion of veteran talent if it plans on reaching the next level.  The Twins attempted to bring in Jarrod Washburn at the trade deadline before Detroit acquired him from Seattle but, by Hartman's account, the Mariners requested Glen Perkins in exchange for Washburn and the Twins flat-out refused.  Take that with a grain of salt because, as John Bonnes noted, Hartman essentially fabricated the entire Sanchez-for-Liriano trade rumor a few weeks ago.

 

Here's an example of the recent acquired Orlando Cabrera providing one of those veteran "intangibles".  During his pregame, welcome-to-the-team interview Cabrera proceeded to answer the first question in his native tongue -- probably to the dismay of the mostly Midwestern born-raised Twins beat writers.   The shortstop smiled and quipped, "They told me you guys speak Spanish." 

 

Even though Cabrera might not be the long-term answer for short, Tyler Ladendorf represents a prospect that has the raw tools but has yet to demonstrate that he is capable of moving up the organization's ladder at a rapid pace, and in that context, he's not such a hefty ransom.  At 21 years old and still unable to figure out low-A pitching in the Midwest League, shortstop Ladendorf was far from the high caliber prospect the Twins thought they had when they drafted him in the second round in 2008 and signed him to a nearly $700K bonus.  As Baseball America notes "The toolsy Ladendorf, 21, has been a disappointment thus far in his pro career. The righthanded batter was hitting 233/.292/.267 in his first 60 at-bats for low Class A Beloit, having spent most of the season in extended spring training and then tearing up the Appalachian League for 15 games."

 

In order to clear room for Cabrera, the Twins sent Brian Buscher to AAA Rochester.  Buscher's role as a left-handed pinch hitter never fully materialized, but the 28-year-old did go 3-for-13 (.231) while drawing walks in 6 of 20 pinch hitting plate appearances leading to a .500 on-base percentage.  Despite having his best month of the entire year (9-for-28, .321 BA, .406 OBP), Buscher had options remaining and providing the least flexibility among role player so it seemed obvious that he would be the one demoted.   Rochester still has to make a roster move to make room for the incoming third baseman.

 

Kelsie Smith notes that the loud noise Justin Morneau made urging the Twins to add an impact player at the trade deadline came at the expense of having Buscher, a close friend of Morneau's, sent to Rochester.  Subtle jab back at the clubhouse from the front office?  According to Smith, Ron Gardenhire said prior to the decision to move Buscher, "Sometimes it's be careful what you ask for with players, though, too, huh? We'll see. We'll see how it all works out." 

 

La Velle E Neal reports that Francisco Liriano threw in a bullpen session on Sunday.  Feeling fine, Liriano plans to start on Wednesday against the Cleveland Indians.  By the way, Liriano leads the MLB with 16 four-pitch walks.

 

Bill Smith has seemingly distanced himself from the actual decision-making responsibilities.  Patrick Reusse provides details of Smith's post-trade press conference in which the Twins GM noted the difference between the way he operates and how the former regime did.  "I'm an administrator; Terry's an evaluator," Smith said. "When it was time to make a decision, Terry listened to his assistants but relied on his evaluation. Those decisions are now reached more by consensus."  So, whereas Ryan would accept accountability, Smith is suggesting that the buck stops there, that guy over there and three office door's down the hall as well. 

 

The 16-year-old German prospect Max Kepler-Rozycki, whom the Twins signed for $800K, suffered a foot injury in the Bavarian championship a few weeks ago and has been on crutches and will not play in the European Championships this month.

Interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal on Dan Okrent who pioneered a new stat in 1979 called IPRAT or "Innings Pitched Ratio".  This would later be known as WHIP, as it is the measurement for walks plus hits divided by the amount of innings pitched.  Okrent, who authored one of the better baseball books on my bookshelf called "9 Innings", came up with this statistic to add to his new creation, 'Rotisserie' baseball, which was a precursor for the millions of fantasy baseball leagues.  Since the proliferation of the WHIP statistic, researchers found a strong correlation to it and future performance of a pitcher.  Despite the predictable parallels, teams, such as the Tampa Bay Rays, shy away from using it as a evaluator.  Says Dan Feinstein, director of baseball operations for the Rays “Once a ball is hit, the pitcher has no control over the outcome of the play, with the exception of the home run. There are too many factors that determine whether or not that ball will be a hit, including ballpark size and dimension, positioning of the defense and ability of his defenders.”

 

Which is why some put emphasis on another metric: expected FIP or xFIP.  The Royals' statistical minded starting pitcher Brian Bannister tells Bob Dutton that “I think the ultimate stat for a pitcher is xFIP,” Bannister said before pausing and offering a wry grin. “I know that’s getting really technical. It’s fielder independent pitching adjusted for your home-run rate back to the league average. That shows a pitcher’s true level of talent. Baseball doesn’t have a strength-of-schedule element like college football does.”  Using the xFIP metric, the top Twins starters are:

Pitcher	xFIP
S. Baker	4.10
K. Slowey	4.39
F. Liriano	4.57
G. Perkins	4.94
N. Blackburn	4.96
A. Swarzak	5.30

 

Josh Johnson has a July review of the organization's minor league system.

 

Back in March, I did a Player Profile at Baseball Digest on former Twins closer Doug Corbett.  Charley Walters informs us that Corbett is now a high school guidance counselor in Jacksonville, FL.  
  

What was Ron Gardenhire like back in Okmulgee High School in Oklahoma?  Mike Baldwin says pretty "low key". 

 

Final Countdown

Last hours of the non-waiver trade deadline on the horizon.  If you get the opportunity, please download our e-book (TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer 2009) to use as a reference to follow along with all of the massive chaos spewed at you from every which direction.  $9.95.  Besides, it's Friday.  What else are you gonna do?

 

I'll be here regurgitating and disseminating some of the latest blips and bleeps on the radar throughout the day so check back frequently.  For those of you that have purchased the book, feel free to leave comments here or emails (Twinscentric@gmail.com) letting us know what you did or didn't like about it. 
 

• Fox Sports says the Twins and A's have made progress towards Oakland sending 34-year-old shortstop Orlando Cabrera to Minnesota. Cabrera gets a far from resounding endorsement, but "progress" could either mean that the A's are willing to back down from from the Danny Valencia request or the Twins are willing to increase their offer as Charley Walters told that it was way too little. Meanwhile La Velle tweets that he believes it is looking less likely that the Twins will make any move at the deadline.
• A's GM Billy Beane quoted in the San Jose Mercury: "You always remain optimistic.  You're trying to bring on as many young players that are going to be around for a while as you can. I wouldn't say anything is necessarily imminent. But along those lines, we still remain active in conversations."
• Charley Walters writes that the Twins are inquiring about David Eckstein from the Padres and Adam Kennedy from the A's - the former Angels up-the-middle combination that helped bounce the 2002 playoffs. Eckstein, like Cabrera, is 34-years-old and has seen his better days behind him.  Like Everett and Punto, he's got that scrappiness that appeals to the manager.  A line drive hitter that doesn't walk (6.6 pct) or strikeout (7.7 pct) which are traits that have been coveted within the organization.  His defensive is suspect as his arm strength and first-step have failed him in recent years - making double plays almost non-existent.  Kennedy is having an aberration of a season, hitting well above his career numbers after being acquired by Oakland from Tampa in a minor league deal.  Like Eckstein, Kennedy is a line drive hitter but strikes out more frequently.  His .434 slugging percentage this season, compared to a career average of .392, is inflated by a career-best 9.0 HR/FB percentage.  Both are inexpensive and can been jettisoned after the season with minimal scar tissue however neither really provide a true upgrade.   
• Interesting tweets from La Velle to follow up his original statement suggesting that he believed that the Twins were not going to make a move.  Said the Star Tribune beat writer, "All I know is that BS [GM Bill Smith] sounded FAR from optimistic when I spoke with him around 10 pm.  One phone call changes everything, but....For Twins' fans' sake, I hope I'm wrong.  Right now.  I don't see it..."
• From Tom Powers at the Pioneer Press:  "Cliff Lee didn't cost the Phillies too much, relatively speaking, and would have looked great in a Twins uniform." Spahuh?  Lee cost the Phillies their number two through four prospects (Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald) and the number ten (Jason Knapp).  This would be the equivalent of the Twins giving up Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos, Jose Mijares and Angel Morales.  What this shows is the depth of a system like Philadelphia versus the shallow pool of the Twins.  The Phillies can move those four prospects and still retain top prospects in Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek.  If the Twins sent a similar package, the system would be effectively purged.  Powers then continues to encourage the Twins to pursue a like deal for Seattle's Jarrod Washburn, who is on the final year of his contact.  Giving up that kind of prospect talent for less than half a season of Washburn would be selling the proverbial farm - a fact that Kelsie Smith across the newsroom from you had wrote about saying the Twins were not going to do.  Mr. Powers, please stick to commenting on happenings at the X, we'll keep an eye on things this side of the river.   
• La Velle says the phone lines were humming at the Twins front office well past midnight trying to get something done.  Probably a west coast team judging from the hours...
• Orlando Cabrera definitely understands how the trade deadline game is played.  "The thing is, if you wait until the last moment and see if other teams get desperate, you might get more added onto a deal," said Cabrera, who has an 11-game hitting streak.  Cabrera's hot month of July (41-for-110) seems bolstered by a high amount of groundballs finding holes (54 percent GB rate). 
• Tom Haudricourt says that Brewers GM Doug Melvin's conversations with Seattle's GM, Jack Zduriencik, led him to believe that Jarrod Washburn is staying put. “It looks like he’s going to keep Washburn,” said Melvin. “He’s going to try to win as many games as he can. Arizona appears to be that way, too, (with pitchers Doug Davis and Jon Garland).”
• Marco Scutaro might not be an option anymore.  Richard Griffin at the Toronto Star writes that "Since the Halladay domino still stands, then so will those of Scott Rolen, Marco Scutaro and Barajas."  Scutaro, unlike Cabrera, Eckstein and Kennedy, demonstrates the ability to get on base via a walk (13.3 percent in 2009) and rarely chases a bad pitch (12.1 out-of-zone swing percent) while being a consistent line drive hitter and playing three infield positions well.  If a selection among these four for number two in the batting order was to be made, I'm going on record as saying Scutaro.
• Going back to La Velle's comments regarding the Twins front office on the horn under past midnight, Bill Center at the San Deigo Union-Tribune says that the Padres GM Kevin Towers was still in his office working the phones well past 10 pm Pacific Time.  It could be safe to assume that Smith was trying to bang out an Eckstein deal but hopefully the topic wandered over to closer Heath Bell.
• USA Today's Bob Nightengale is confirming what Doug Melvin already suspected that the Mariners will not part with Jarrod Washburn unless they get an overwhelming offer.  Based on his contract, age and the fact that a vastly improved outfield defense is behind his improved numbers, I'd say that should take him off the boards for the Twins. 
• Nightengale notes that the A's and Twins were in a late night conversation regarding Cabrera and that Oakland's asking price was crazy-loco.   
• SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Tigers nabbed Jarrod Washburn from Mariners for Luke French and Mauricio Robles.  Good move for the contender that truthfully had zero to offer.  However, the terrible outfield defense for the Tigers will bring Washburn's second-half numbers skyrocketing.  Better move by Seattle who recieves a substantial younger, cheaper version of Washburn in the 23-year-old French who has been an extreme flyball pitcher in his brief stint with Detroit and will benefit greatly from the revamped Mariner outfield. 
• With Washburn off the market, the Twins should consider acquiring left-handed starter Doug Davis.  So far, Arizona has had little action but if those who were infatutated with Washburn wants a like-product, they should be looking towards the desert.  Davis, one year Washburn's junior, is owed $2 million less than the Wisconsin native and has provided similar output the past three seasons.  The last three years Washburn has thrown 480 innings, had an ERA of 3.9, a 23-35 record while posting a 5.2 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9.  Davis meanwhile, has tossed 463 innings with a 4.14 ERA, a 24-30 record along with a 6.9 K/9 and a 4.3 BB/9. 
• Sussie Slusser at the San Francisco Chronicle is saying that Orlando Cabrera could be with the Twins in the "next hour or so".  UPDATE: Valencia NOT a part of the deal.
• Interesting, Slusser also says Justin Duchscherer's rehab start in AAA Sacremento was scrapped with no reason give.  Could the 31-year-old lefty from Aberdeen, SD be in play as well for another arm for the Twins?
• UPDATE Nightengale confirms: Cabrera for Tyler Ladendorf.  Upgrade?  M'eh...Potential undefinable clubhouse injection that gets the team rolling?  Possibly. 
• A shortstop with Beloit, Ladendorf, in his second year in the organization, had a good start in Elizabethton, hitting .410/.500/.721 with four home runs and a nice 11/7 BB/K ratio.  The promotion to Beloit saw his line drop to .233/.292/.267 in 60 at-bats with a 4/13 BB/K ratio.  The Twins were trying to tweak his batting stance and scouts believe that when he grows into his frame he will be forced out of the shortstop position.
• Joe Christensen says we're going to see Cabrera in a Twins uniform tonight Saturday wearing number 18 and playing against his former team. 
• Cleveland continues to dismantle their franchise.  Victor Martinez is heading to Boston says Nightengale.  Even with the firesale, the Indians have a good crop of young players in the minors (LaPorta, Santana, etc) making their "rebuilding" time just a few seasons (as opposed to decades like Pittsburgh). 
• UPDATE Slusser says that Cabrera won't be able to get a plane out of the Bay Area until tomorrow morning since the team had a late arrival back following a series in Boston. 
• Jeff Fletcher at AOLFanHouse says that the A's wanted to take Ladendorf with the following pick before the Twins snapped him up.
• Cabrera's contract calls for him to recieve a one-time "assignment bonus" of $250K if traded.  Slusser believes that that is the amount the Twins will be getting from Oakland to complete the transaction.
• Nightengale says the Twins and A's are talking about Michael Wuertz while ESPN's Buster Olney says the Twins are looking at Heath Bell.
• UPDATE:  Padres want too much for Bell.  Twins are probably out writes Nightengale.  Talks fired up with Diamondbacks regarding Jon Rauch. 
• Slusser says she spoke with Michael Wuertz at 3 PM and he was still a member of the Oakland Athletics. 
• Christensen says that's it.  We've got Cabrera who addresses...clubhouse need?  There's still the waiver trade deadline of August 31st for the Twins to potentially grab another arm.
  

Sporadically Updated Trade Information

First: buy the book, support local bloggers and enjoy enriching baseball entertainment all afternoon long. 

Second: Haphazardly updated trade deadline notes with Twins spin -- 

 

• I wrote about Pirates' left-handed relief pitcher John Grabow yesterday as a potential trade candidate.  Following the Freddy Sanchez-to-San Francisco trade, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette beat writer, Dejan Kovacevic says that it is likely that the Pirates are done wheeling-and-dealing this year and that they would like to see if Grabow actually reaches Type A status.    

• Geoff Baker in his Seattle Times blog noted that there is the outside possibility of the M's moving right-handed reliever Mark Lowe.  Lowe is the prototypical power arm out of the 'pen, registering at 96.3-mph on average when coming with the heater which he compliments with a slider (a deviation from 2008 when he was a fastball-changeup pitcher).    

• The Mariners were also recently linked to rumors involving Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy or the AAA prospect Alcides Escobar.   There had been an offseason movement encouraging the Twins to acquire Hardy to fill the need at short, thankfully, the Twins did not go down that road.  But now with the Brewers now 7.5 games out of the Central and injuries to Manny Parra, Dave Bush and now Jeff Suppan might mitigate the need for more pitching.  Hardy provides respectable defense, but has seen his line drive rate drop each year since 2005 (falling from 21.1 percent in 2005 to 13.5 percent in 2009) as well as a steep increase ni his strikeout rate (from 12.3 percent in 2007 to 19.4 this year) resulting in a career-low .679 OPS (We have one of those).  He's on a one-year, $4.65 million and would be in line for a raise in 2010 but considering his career OPS is .758 and that he's only 26 years old, he's probably due to rebound.  The catch is that the Brewers are probably looking for some MLB-ready pitching, which the Twins are scouring for themselves.  Paradox.   

• Since acquiring second baseman Felipe Lopez from the Diamondbacks for a pair of C-list prospects on July 19th, Lopez has gone 11-for-32 (.344) for the Brewers.  In that same time span, Alexi Casilla has gone 4-for-27 (.148).  Before you sharpen your pitchforks, consider that Lopez has managed a .364 on-base percentage while Casilla has produced a on-base percentage three points lower (.361) by walking eight times to Lopez's one.  I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin.   

• From a colleague in an email after the David Ortiz news broke: "No wonder Ortiz sucked while he was with the Twins. We didn't have the good drugs here. Manny hooked him up with the good stuff when he got to Boston. All the Twins can get is what Juan Rincon was on and that apparently will only make you as good as Juan Rincon."  

• Classic Ozzie Guillen quote yesterday:  ''I want to see the piranhas in a different lake next year. 'Let's see those mother [bleepers] hit when it's 20 degrees outside. They'll have a little different record at home.'' 

• Since Oakland does not appear to be selling on Michael Wuertz (gloveslap, La Velle), the Twins should consider traveling further south down the California coastline and find out what it would take to pry Padres closer, Heath Bell, away.  Since assuming the closer role in San Deigo after Hoffman left, Bell has embraced the high leverage situations thoroughly.  In 40.1 innings this season, Bell has struck out 48, walked just 15 and has a tidy 2.01 ERA while converting 25 for 26 save opportunities.  Bell made other adjustments including the new position title, such as moving away from a fastball-slider combo towards a fastball-curve mix, that has led to a high strikeout rate (from 8.19 in 2008 to 10.71 in '09) and a minuscule RHB average of .091 (6-for-66).  He is in his first arbitration year and would be under club control for another two seasons making the price tag on the reliever presumably steep.  Add in competition from the Marlins, Rays and Yankees, and the Twins chances slim.  For premium relief work the Twins would have to part with a premium prospect. 

• According to Dejan Kovacevic, the Cubs are working on acquiring John Grabow as well as starter Tom Gorzelanny.  Earlier today, La Velle has gone on record stating that he did not think Grabow "addressed any of the Twins' pressing needs".  As far as middle relief goes, Grabow is as good as any out there having experience in late inning situations and matching up well against both left-handed and right-handed batters.  The left-handed Gorzelanny has had a rollercoaster career.  From 2006-2007, he went 16-15 with a 3.86 ERA and struck out an average of 6.0 K/9 in 43 starts.  The wheels fell off last year as his control vanished along with his ability to retire righties (.593 slugging against).  In his brief time up in Pittsburgh he's worked out of the bullpen but had improved in AAA striking out 85 in 87 innings with a 2.48 ERA.  The Pirates would want at least two left-handed pitchers in return -- the Twins have Brian Duensing and Ryan Mullins that fit that profile. 

• Geoff Baker reports that the Twins had scouts out to watch Jarrod Washburn as well as look at Sean White.  Writes Baker "Minnesota does have young infielder Alexi Casilla, who is a decent glove but as you can see, not much of a bat. There's also Delmon Young, whose game has gone south and is not even a viable DH candidate."  The Mariners originally asked the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes in exchange for Washburn and they were shotdown with extreme prejudice.  Seattle currently has a list of non-A-list prospect in the Yankees system that they can select from. 

• I interrupt the trade talks/updates for a dash of Ortiz-related hypocrisy:

• February 2009:  "'I think you clean up the game by the testing.  I know that if I test positive by using any kind of substance, I know that I'm going to disrespect my family, the game, the fans and everybody, and I don't want to be facing that situation.  So what would I do? I won't use it, and I'm pretty sure that everybody is on the same page.'  He drew a distinction between the use of steroids through 2003, when it was not penalized, and the period since then when testing with penalties has been in effect."